Stat Attack: Phoenix Defense 06-07

by Ridiculous Matt on Oct 15, 2007 1:19 AM MDT

[Editor's Note: Just got back online following way too many hours on the road and found another great Stat Attack from sunofa, with a lively discussion already going. Therefore, I'm going to make this the post of the day, and I'll put up Dan Hilton's Q&A (which I have received) tomorrow. Thanks, sunofa!]

NOTE: Stat Attack is just some analysis I'll do throughout the season. I'm an amateur, and this work should not be considered law. If you're curious about any of my work, or want to tell me how jacked up I am, feel free to contact me or let me know in the comments. The names have been changed to protect the innocent. Do not read before operating heavy machinery. Also, if you think stats are useless, this is probably not the article for you.

"What I'd like to see someone look at is a ratio of opponents' points to opponents' possessions. If you're San Antonio and take 20 seconds to get a shot off, the other team is going to get less shots. It works for them, but absolute score is not the best indicator. Point differential is somewhat important, too, but I'd be willing to guess that the opponent's efficiency is important, too."

Well, then. Let's take a look.

First, let's get a look at Phoenix's season ratings for different in-depth defensive statistics (thanks to 82games.com and probasketball-reference.com, as well as Knickerblogger.net). I elected to use Basketball-reference.com method for possessions. The KnickerBlogger.net one seems to be modeled after Hollinger's work, but the other formula is a little more thorough.The team rankings come out the same. The formula takes 100 possessions, because that gives you a little bit more relevant term.

Defensive Efficiency (points per 100 possessions, defined as 100*(Opp PTS / Opp Poss):

Phoenix Suns: 106.3558

The league average is 106.4321, low is good, high is bad. The Suns ranked 14th in this category, right in the middle of the pack.

To compare, San Antonio had a dEff of 99.79864, 2nd best in the league. Dallas was at 5th at 102.9118. On the other end, our Laker friends were 25th at 108.9665. So the Suns were right in the middle of the pack. This is a natural expectancy based on the style of play, personnel, and level of competition in the West, but still, a study recently found that only 6 teams out of the 25 fastest finished below the league average of defensive efficiency. So the speed style of play isn't necessarily the reason, especially given Phoenix was only the 3rd fastest team last year. As an example, the Bulls finished 6th in pace (Suns were 3rd), and 1st in defense (how this team did not win the East is still beyond me, Sheed or no Sheed). So the Bulls could run AND play defense.

So here's the startling revelation: the Suns were not great on defense! OMG!

But no, what we can look at is the fact that if this team with the new additions can step up even a little bit, if they can crack top 10 in dEFF, it could mean a tremendous amount in terms of success.

Rebounding is discussed a lot amongst these hallowed pages, so let's take a look at that.

I calculated defensive rebounds per 100 possessions. Let's do good news, bad news.

Good news: The Suns are inside the top half of the league in this category, coming in at no. 14. So that's not so bad, right? Especially given how many possessions the Suns create as a result of their play style.

Bad news: The top three? Houston, San Antonio, and Dallas. This is the area the Suns have to improve in if they want to succeed. Even if it means slipping a little in PACE. It doesn't sound like Coach D'Antoni cares much about that idea, though.

Here are the top five teams in the west, by finish, and their rebounds/100 possessions, and their allowed field goal %.

San Antonio: 34.80 .44%
Utah: 32.58 .45%
Phoenix: 32.56 .46%
Golden State: 30.09 .46%

If you were wondering about opponents' Field Goal %? Phoenix was 14th in the league. Are we getting a picture yet?

To give you an idea, 6 Western Conference teams had a better opponents' Field Goal% while 7 Western Conference teams had a better rebounds to 100 possessions ratio. Only two WC playoff teams had a worse rebound to 100 possessions ratio, Denver and the Lakers.

But what I think can be seen as the biggest killer? Offensive rebounds. Per 100 possessions, the Suns gave up 12.70 offensive rebounds. That's ranked 25th in the league. only the Warriors gave up more in the West. The Spurs, conversely, gave up 11.19.

So think about that. That means that 24 teams gave up less offensive rebounds.

It's time to crash the boards.

As always, questions, comments,or criticisms are welcome.

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Comments

Great work!

I wonder though if you can both crash the boards and run at the pace the Suns do.

To me it seems a natural trade off. First, you have to have smaller faster players to play like the Suns do. One what other team could Boris Diaw be considered a Center? Perhaps a Junior College team?

Second, the Suns are always always looking for the quick outlet so guards and often the small forward are releasing right after the other team shoots so they can catch the outlet pass.

I guess what I am saying is that NO team can be great at everything. Suns basketball as we have come to love it is fast paced, up tempo play utilizing skilled athletic players who give up size and stregnth under the rim.

If you ask me, that's a fair trade off.

The defensive area I would like to see more analysis of would be the permiter and transition D. The same thing that hampers the Suns on the glass should give them a plus on the wings and in transition. This is about desire and coaching emphasis b/c the Suns clearly have the talent to be very good defensively everywhere else except down low.

by Seth Pollack on Oct 15, 2007 9:46 AM MDT reply actions

Well

You can run and play defense, there are a few teams that prove this, the Bulls being one of them. The Rockets are another, though they don't run as much. Both of those teams were in the top half in PACE, and in defense, and in rebounding.

The problem that occurs, and that KILLED the Suns in the playoffs, is that you can run all you want, and play perimeter D (which I think the Suns are pretty goodat , and that's evidenced by the dEFF at the SG position), but if you're making them miss shots, only to have them get the rebound and try again, it's useless. The suns create high percentage shots on almost every possession. They limit their opponents to bad percentage shots. But they don't rebound effectively, and that ORB number is just killer. They're letting teams have way more ORB than they should. You HAVE to hold good teams to one possession. Second chances will kill you, and they have killed the Suns.

by Ridiculous Matt on Oct 15, 2007 10:44 AM MDT reply actions

On perimeter defense

I can't read all these numbers, but I do know that Parker and Ginobli killed the Suns in the playoffs. TD got his points and boards; he was the one constant. Occassionally, Thomas made him work harder underneath and I think that helped, but when Parker and Ginobli were on, the Suns lost games. I think it probably had more to do with defensive rotations, so I'm not sure if that is perimeter D.

On the defensive glass, when Marion is guarding a perimeter guy the Suns best defensive rebounder is out of the picture. He's the best defensive rebounder because he hustles and slashes and works. Without him around the glass, that leaves the sometimes-dialed-in-but-not-always Stoudemire to be the main guy on that end. Major problem. Also, its very bad because he's usually out of position and keeping the lane porous.

I also have to concur that Houston cannot run unless Yao is out of the game. And then, they're only marginal at it. I bet that's why they had decent running stats last year (Yao's injury).

Mmmmm ... Guinness

by JSun on Oct 15, 2007 6:18 PM MDT up reply actions

Is that possible?

Can you be great on the ORB and still run?

How are the Bulls in this category? And remember that they are feeling like they don't have enough inside scoring btw...

Oh, and Houston and running are not two words that should ever go together.

I relish a Suns / Houston match up. We run them out of the building.

Championship teams are about balance. Spurs are good slow down defensive team that can run at times and score well when needed.

The Suns are basically the opposite. Both have balance but ours is much more fun :)

The Suns are still the Suns and they are built to out score opponents. They are going to give up rebounds on many nights and they are going to give up more points but as long as they can score they can win.

We lost to the Spurs b/c we were missing big open outside shots and they made them. Barbosa's elbow I guess had a lot to do w/ that. We didn't lose to the Spurs on the glass.

I guess I am saying that I love the way this Suns team is put together and I am not going to dwell on the few areas of relative weakness that to me is the natural and expected trade off of the system and players.

by Seth Pollack on Oct 15, 2007 10:51 AM MDT reply actions

rebounding THEN running

You can rebound and still keep up the fast paced offense. All it takes on the defensive end (as long as we are in man-to-man) is for every player to just box out their man.

If every player is boxing out, we should get the rebound unless there is a funky bounce off the rim. Then as soon as we see that we have the rebound, that's when we should be releasing down the court. There is no point in releasing early if we aren't going to get the rebound. So while the rebounder (usually a big man) is looking for the outlet pass to Nash, the rest of the team is sprinting down the court.

On the offensive end, we should have AT LEAST 3 if not 4 players crashing the offensive boards. While Nash and/or Bell are rotating to the top to act as safeties in case the other team rebounds, the other 3 or 4 are hitting the boards hard.

It is possible to rebound effectively and run, it just comes down to the mentality that we should have every rebound and it also comes down to the amount of effort we choose to put in.

by brian13 on Oct 15, 2007 11:51 AM MDT reply actions

I love this team, too.

Their style of play is the most amazing thing I've ever seen on the court.

But this thread is about looking at numbers. I'm not saying that the Suns need to be awesome at the glass. I'm saying they need to not allow the third most offensive rebounds in the league.

Okay, the Rockets were a bad example at 22nd in the leage at PACE. But how about the Bulls at 6? Or the Raptors at 9th in PACE, and 6th in ORBallowed?

Again, I don't think there needs to be monumental changes. I think we need to get a little more production in order to make it more than a crapshoot against the Mavs and Spurs. If we can make sure we don't allow second chances, it'll give us a much better chance.

I don't know about open shots. We have to double Duncan. Have to. Or double the driver, whether it's Ginobli or Parker. Someone's going to be open for the Spurs. That's their offense.

by Ridiculous Matt on Oct 15, 2007 2:49 PM MDT reply actions

Interesting comments

I do alot of statistical analysis at BlogaBull, but have watched the Suns as often as I could the last three years.

The Bulls/Suns comparison is an interesting comparison and the Bulls will likely play even closer to the Suns pace this year. But, it isn't a fair one. The Bulls are a defensive team 1st and do most of their running off of turnovers. And part of the Bulls' pace is generating by their own turnovers. This isn't like anything that the Suns do.

Mike D'Antoni has designed a defensive system that is designed to increase offensive efficiency. The Suns play mostly straight man to man defense with limited help. Their willing to give up layups, rather than risk a foul and slow the pace of the game down. This also encourages lots of 1 on 1 play, which leads to lots of standing around and allows the Suns to rest on defense. One of the amazing things about the Suns pace is that it's done with so few turnovers. The Suns committ very few on offense and force very few on defense. The results are a pretty good effective FG% defense and one that gives up very few FT attempts. But struggles at rebounding and generating turnovers ecause most turnovers come from help defense.

How can the Suns defense improve? They can either force more missed shots, create more turnovers, or rebound better. I don't see where the Suns can significantly improve in any of these categories. I intended to write about where they could improve. But, I can't find any area where there's hope for significant improvement. The Suns don't have the right players to rebound better or force more turnovers. There's at least the clear possibility for even better offense with Hill and Diaw returning to form. But, I'm not sure how much that helps against San Antonio.

by sbulls9030 on Oct 17, 2007 3:51 PM MDT reply actions