Stat Attack: The 3 Spot and Grant Hill vs. James Jones

[Editor's Note: Another edition of "Stat Attack" from sunofa. Enjoy!]

The following data is pulled from 82games.com and uses John Hollinger's infamous PER statistic. Consider this credit where credit is due. No computation was done on this work, nor should it be considered as anything more than a rudimentary examination of stats. Also, if you don't think stats are cool, that's fine, here's a video of a mascot beating up another mascot.

Let's take a moment and look at the Phoenix Suns production by position.

First let's look at the offensive production in terms of points and PER by position last year.

POS       PTS        PER
PG       25.1       22.8
SG       22.8       16.5
SF        19.3       15.2
PF       17.9       17.7
C        25.1       21.4

No surprises here, considering Nash and Amare, and the lack of depth at SF last year. The differential between SG and SF is kind of surprising. You'd think this would be closer considering the amount of time Bell spent at both positions. But given Bell's 3 point shooting last season, it's likely his role was different there, and the difference is also made with Barbosa's presence at the 2.

Here's the opponents' points and PERs for last season, by position.

         PTS        PER
PG       21.9       16.8
SG       21.6       15.4
SF       20.7       17.2
PF       20.2       15.2
C        18.5       16.8

This kind of knocked me back a bit. With Raja playing the 2 so much, and Barbosa's speed, it makes sense for the SG to be that low. But for all of Diaw's offensive woes, considering he was in the 4 spot for roughly 55% of the season, the PF spot held it's own defensively.  That the SF spot gave up the most points is kind of surprising, with Marion at the spot for the majority of the time. I would have pegged his for the PG spot (though it's not far behind) or the C spot (again, not so far back).

Here's the NET for points and PER:

PG        3.2         +6.0
SG        -.3         +1.2
SF        -.4         -0.0
PF        -2.9        +0.4
C         6.6         +4.6

So the 3 spot is the only spot we lose significant overall production at. The point differential at PF is significant, but then, we knew that. Again, Kurt, we miss you.

Now, let's take a look at Grant Hill and the upgrade at the 3.

Here's James Jones vs. Grant Hill.

             Pts      PtsPer40    40minNet+/-   PER
Jones       6.4      16.9         +5.6          10.81
Hill         14.4     22.3         -1.6              16.33

The usual "are per 40 minutes useful when the gap between minutes is so high between players" argument applies (as well as the "is PER useful" argument, I suppose, but I'm using it for this analysis).

So really, a lot of the difference with Grant Hill, at least from a statistical standpoint, rests on how he's used. It's an obvious statement, but when it put in context, it's a bit more complicated. It's sounding more and more like this  depth chart is on D'Antoni's mind, and if so, those numbers might not fluctuate much. But if Diaw can step up and produce similar numbers to last year and increase production even a little bit, and Skinner can provide a modicum of capable backup, the difference could be huge.

[Note: I'd love to do a projection of the change from James to Hill, but I'm waiting to hear from 82games how they came up with the numbers.]

One last note.

Jones averaged 4.0 personal fouls per 40 to Hill's 3.5. Hill also played 12 more minutes a game, so you have to factor that in. Per game, James averaged 1.5 to Hill's 2.2. When you factor in how much fouls slow the Suns down, this can be a great sign for our overall speed. When you consider that fouls usually indicate a physical nature on defense, it's not so hot. But then again, you get all the other Grant Hill intangibles.

I can't wait to see how this plays out over the season.