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Analyzing the first ten games of the Shaq era...

Star-divide

A quick and dirty analysis of the last ten games reveal a definite trend.  The wins feature a slower paced, grind-it out style, and the losses show that these Suns can't win by running all the time.

Specifically:

Wins

Boston, 95-87
Portland, 97-92
San Antonio, 94-87
Memphis, 127-113 (This game actually should have been a loss, but the Grizz stink.  We played badly)

Losses

Detroit, 116-86
LA, 130-124
NO, 120-103
Den, 126-113
Phi, 119-114
Utah, 126-118

See a trend?  When we try to run, we lose.  Now I am not saying we ditch the running.  It is clear, however, that our defensive schemes AS CURRENTLY EMPLOYED, cannot handle the increased opportunities that the wide open game affords the opposition.

What we must do is to pick our spots, and run when we have the advantage.  What was our disadvantage in the 6 losses?

LA - Kobe vs Raja, LA bench vs our bench
Det - Chauncy vs Nash, Rasheed vs STAT
Phi - Raja vs Iguodala
Utah - Nash vs Deron williams
NO - Nash vs Paul
Den - Nash vs Iverson

Notice in these 6 games, we played 3 of Nash's most difficult matchups.  We have to figure out how to help him out.

Also, in each of these games, we had advantages that we did not press.  In all of them, the biggest was Shaq vs his man.  This is an advantage we cannot waste.  In addition:

LA - Hill vs Odom
Det - Amare vs McDyess
Utah - Hill vs Utah SF
Den - Amare vs Martin
NO - Hill vs Peja
Phl - Amare vs Dalembert or Young

There are other matchups we should win.  LB and Boris should always win their matchups, but both are in a funk now.  Have you ever seen anyone stop Boris when he wanted to score?  And LB, I have always said he waits too long to lay it up till he is under the basket and it is an almost impossible angle.  He is an athlete.  He has established that 'blow by the defender' move already.  Time to change it up and pull up for a 5 foot jumper.  The defender flill go for the usual layup.  After that, he will have his man guessing.

I think we are figuring it out, but the GS game is a good test.  If we keep the pace down, we will win.  That sounds strange when talking about the Suns, but if that game is played above the 110 point level, we lose.

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Interesting Analysis
I like what you've done here. For a very small sample, it does seem to show a trend. I would like to see how this changes (in terms of the scoring/defense comparison) as we approach the playoffs. I'm wondering how much of this trend may simply be due to them learning to play as a new unit with major pieces being swaped around.

by KJ7 on Mar 10, 2008 12:17 PM MDT   0 recs

Nice post
I would add that as Nash performs so go the Suns. So, when his match-up is tough we do not do as well.

On those tough match nights for Nash, With the big guy, other players should be able to pass it into the post. Nash could spend time moving with out the ball, or becoming the spot up 3 point shooter. I would guess he could be the most accurate in the league at 3 ball, in an open set shot.

Really well done analysis.

by papers63 on Mar 10, 2008 4:07 PM MDT   0 recs

PG straegies
Thanks.  I agree that we need to develop a counter strategy for Steve's bad matchups.  We did do this to some extent withg Shawn covering Parker and Paul, but I never saw any attempt to minimize the advantage of Billupss and DWilliams, and even Marbury, for that matter.  It's not just a matter of switching who covers whom, but also on offense, working some new looks in there to reduce his wear and tear.  Like Grant or Boris initiating some plays and Steve being the shooter, as you suggest.

And who knows, maybe we'll stumble on some combination that works well when Nash is on the bench.

This wouldn't be as much of a problem if LB would add some discipline and patience to his wonderfully athletic game.  Or if DJ was allowed to play and develop confidcence in his shot.

'07-'08 Suns: It's clobberin' time!

by Hawk42 on Mar 11, 2008 6:42 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

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