Which Western Conf team best to meet in the 1st?

by ZonaFlash on Mar 17, 2008 2:02 PM MDT

With 16 games to go, now is the time to start guessing and thinking:

[1] Who will the SUNS face?
[2] Who would be the easiest victim?

Hawk42 is tracking the current standings and Hollinger has a prediction model (that is completely outdated by the trades).

Still, why not make a guess, knowing full well that with 16 games to go and only 2.5 games separating the top 7 spots your guess is a complete wild-goose crapshoot!

Assuming the SUNS make your projected playoff cut, the the more interesting question is to think: what is your dreamland first round scenario?

All the teams are dangerous, so choose your poison. Which matchups, if any, best suits the SUNS for success?

As someone who wants his team to win, I'm thinking Dallas right now. I think they're dysfunctional enough to be beaten by anyone. They have meltdown king, Dirky Hasselhoff. Status: They've won 5 games by smoking leastern conference teams by wide margin. They face Boston, Lakers (No Gasol) and the slumping Spurs this week.

As a pure fan, I would like to see the SUNS play (and beat) the Hornets in the first round, the Lakers at full strength in the second, the Spurs in the WC finals and then Pistons or Celtics in the finals.

BTW, we take suggestions from any Lakers, Spurs, Nugs, or other team's homers who are lurking on this board.

My forecast: We will end the season in 3rd place. We will play the Lakers in the first round.

[Update by TexSUN 1:52PT]: This is a popular topic today. BSotS was featured on Yahoo's excellent Ball Don't Lie blog earlier today with this very discussion. What I sent them got edited a bit for length, so I'm including the unedited version after the jump.

The question was: Which team would you most like to see in the first round if the playoffs started today, and which team would you most like to avoid?

A week ago, I would probably have picked the Yao-less Rockets hands down as the lesser of seven evils (OK, I did do that). But then there's that whole 22-game winning streak thing, and the fact the Suns have yet to face the Rockets since trading Shawn Marion for Shaq. There are no "cupcakes" in the West this season. So, in light of this, I think you can make an argument for just about any team being the preferred matchup for one crazy reason or the other:

Most satisfying high risk/high reward possibility: The Spurs - How sweet would it be for Suns fans if we could finally knock these guys off?

Most familiar venue: The Lakers - This would be the third season in a row if these two teams to met in the first round.

Most entertaining matchup: The Warriors - We could see a 300-point game between these two teams.

Most inexperienced opponent: The Hornets and the Rockets - If you're banking on the "have to earn your dues" theory, these are the teams you want.

Best grudge-match: The Mavericks - Steve Nash vs. Mark Cuban Part 3 with a couple of new twists.

Best home court advantage: The Jazz - Although they did beat the Suns on the road recently.

All that said--and with full knowledge I may look like a fool a week from now--I'm sticking with my pick for the Rockets. Even with the acquisition of Shaq, and the breakout of Amare Stoudemire, the Suns still rely so much on Steve Nash, that I'm partial to matchups that favor the Suns at the point guard spot. Also, without Yao, the Suns should rule the paint, and Raja Bell should be able to pester Tracy McGrady. Here's hoping I didn't just put the mother of all jinxes on my team when they face the Rockets this coming Saturday.

As for who I'd least like to see? The Lakers. Forget about the fact they're a popular pick to win it all, and that they mostly "owned" the Suns in the regular season. Starting the playoffs against the same team three seasons in a row is simply too monotonous.

Poll

Which team would be the easiest for the Suns to vanquish in the 1st Round?

Nuggets

56 votes

Rockets

55 votes

Lakers

11 votes

Hornets

4 votes

Jazz

8 votes

Spurs

12 votes

Mavericks

38 votes

Warriors

17 votes

201 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 35 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

I'm confused

Are you saying the Lakers are going to drop to 6th?

That said, excellent post. In fact, you beat me to the punch a bit. I was going to post something about this very topic later on today. I'm going to add those thoughts to the "read more" of this post, and bump it to the top. Stand by...

by TexSUN on Mar 17, 2008 1:52 PM MDT reply actions

Yeah, I think aches and pains

and a tight race will drop the Lakers to 6th. I don't know why exactly, but that karma demands that the SUNS play the lakers and if the SUNS are 3rd, then the lakers must be sixth!

"You can never have too many shooters." - Cotton

by ZonaFlash on Mar 17, 2008 2:03 PM MDT up reply actions

Done

Welcome to our post of the day.

And in case you missed it, the stuff I added at the bottom is here:
http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/story/2008/3/17/15252/9233#readmore

by TexSUN on Mar 17, 2008 2:21 PM MDT up reply actions

Another contest

We should have another contest.

Rank the final order of the top 8 teams in the West...

Anyone that thinks they KNOW how this is going to turn out is smoking crack. This thing is wide open. The Nuggets could do on a run and the Spurs could end up in the 9th. Unlikely but NOT impossible.

Miami - where Marion isn't happening

by Seth Pollack on Mar 17, 2008 1:58 PM MDT reply actions

In my business we say

"There are two types of forecasters - those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know!"

:) (that was John Kenneth Galbraith who said it first!)

"You can never have too many shooters." - Cotton

by ZonaFlash on Mar 17, 2008 2:01 PM MDT up reply actions

Haha

that wouldn't be a contest as much as it would be a lottery.

by RealTangiblesGuy on Mar 17, 2008 2:16 PM MDT up reply actions

All the better

Its like the March Madness bracket pool. Its random dumb luck but people think they can think their way into a win.

A perfect contest....

Phx - where Player of the Week happens

by Seth Pollack on Mar 17, 2008 2:26 PM MDT up reply actions

simple in my view

This new Suns team hasn't had much of a letdown in 4 games. We're used to seeing a few letdowns in energy. With that said, if this Suns team beats Houston and Detroit here this week, I think we'll win the west! Those are 2 really big games to validate where we're at. Especially Detroit. But, the next 2 games are also important to make sure our team has kept the urgency it's so cooly shown recently. Who was it, Artest I think, who said the Suns just showed a strong sense of urgency out there, thats the Suns team that can win it all.

2 teams to worry about the most, N.O. and the Lakers, I know Gasol is out and Bynum isn't back yet, but they will be in the playoffs. And I personally think we'll be facing them at some point.

A lot of fun, for the first time in years, the March Madness can't come close to the nba!

by jasonsuns1 on Mar 17, 2008 2:39 PM MDT reply actions

I would want to face

Rockets (if they fall this week)
Nuggets
Warriors
Dallas
Utah
Lakers
New Orleans
Spurs

I think we are underestimating the Spurs. They will get themselves together. They like to act dead and wait for someone to walk over to their "corpse" and then stab the person. I call it the "Bruce Bowen"

by RealTangiblesGuy on Mar 17, 2008 2:49 PM MDT reply actions

Spurs

Finley, Horry and Nick Van Exel I mean Damon Stoudamire don't need to act dead, they are dead.

parallel universe

by SilverSprings on Mar 17, 2008 4:28 PM MDT up reply actions

And

unlike Dikembe Mutumbo, they do not return from the dead once a year to re-exert their dominance.

by RealTangiblesGuy on Mar 17, 2008 4:35 PM MDT up reply actions

This is

more wishful thinking...

by Key on Mar 20, 2008 9:04 AM MDT up reply actions

This is a good list

I think that's pretty fair but I would put Lakers and Hornets as more dangerous than the Spurs, at this point. I also think the rockets are more dangerous (despite going 0-2 in recent big games) than 8th.

The SUNS - NOW THE HOTTEST TEAM IN THE NBA!

by ZonaFlash on Mar 20, 2008 9:34 AM MDT up reply actions

Ball Don't Lie / Forum Blue and Gold

Nice coverage, TexSUN -

But I can't believe its another year with teams looking at us like we're the weakest link.

It's been like that for three years running, ever since we angled for the flakers in 2004-2005 (and what a debacle that was!)!

your link

After the last couple of years, Lakers fans really would like another shot at the Suns, this season (when healthy) the Lakers really have the Suns number. And a lot of other teams do to.

I guess I'm really drinking the suns-flavored kool-aid to think the SUNS can beat a team in the POs that they haven't beaten all year (like the Hornets), because I'm thinking:

When will the lemmings ever learn? :)

"You can never have too many shooters." - Cotton

by ZonaFlash on Mar 17, 2008 2:50 PM MDT reply actions

If I were the Lakers

I would want us too. They'd be crazy not to want a matchup with the team they've beaten three out of the four times, with the one loss being pre-Pau, with Kwame, and while Bynum was injured. I'm sure Hornets fans feel the same way. I'd really rather not see the Lakers in the first round this time anyway, even if they weren't poised for a breakthrough year if healthy. We've had them in the first round two seasons in a row already. It's time to see somebody different for a change.

by TexSUN on Mar 17, 2008 2:59 PM MDT up reply actions

I predict

if we beat the Lakers, Shaq will ask to be referred to as the Big KobeKiller

by RealTangiblesGuy on Mar 17, 2008 2:52 PM MDT reply actions

They're all fire or frying pan, it seems

Given that just a week ago the Suns were looking like the one team in the West that all the others were licking their chops for, there's not really a easy out to be had. All that said, I'd be looking for the Rockets or the Warriors as the easiest opening round foe.

No doubt that 22 in a row is impressive, but even the Rockets themselves concede they're the worst team ever to streak like that. Just as the Suns caught a few breaks last year on their longer streak, the Rockets have gotten a slew of weaker teams along with some timely (for them) injuries/suspensions to the better teams on their schedule.

The Warriors are a bit flawed, if dangerous, and their knock-off of Dallas last year was a result of the best possible matchup (complete with coach insider knowledge) against a team ripe for another mental breakdown.

Of course, the sweetest part of the last 2 years has been ending the Laker season, how could any Suns fan not want to see another round of that?

by SoCalSun on Mar 17, 2008 5:02 PM MDT reply actions

Because I'd rather end the Spurs' season

Seriously, enough of the Lakers already. I wouldn't mind ending their season too, but let's make it happen in the WCF or something. Just tired of seeing the same old team again and again in the first round.

by TexSUN on Mar 17, 2008 5:13 PM MDT up reply actions

On the other hand...

which season would you be least interested in ending?

I wouldn't want to end the Warriors season. Who wants to kill the pretty little underdogs?

by RealTangiblesGuy on Mar 17, 2008 5:16 PM MDT up reply actions

Spurs

That's who I want to send home the most right now.

by TexSUN on Mar 17, 2008 5:35 PM MDT up reply actions

Oops, sorry, mis-read that

LEAST would be Hornets or Rockets. I think both of those teams are having kind of Cinderella seasons in the sense that nobody was expecting them to be this high in the standings this late in the year. I wouldn't feel as bad about the Warriors because they got to have their fun a year ago.

by TexSUN on Mar 17, 2008 5:37 PM MDT up reply actions

I'd face the Spurs

If we don't win the championship, at least I want the Suns to beat the Spurs. And beat them badly.

I would also like to beat Dallas. But I like the Warriors and the Rockets. I wouldn't like to face them. I also hate the Lakers, but I would like to see them missing the playoffs. I know, it's not going to happen.

Walk on, walk on With hope in your heart And you'll never walk alone You'll never walk alone

by Nobs on Mar 17, 2008 8:44 PM MDT reply actions

Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The SUNS - NOW THE HOTTEST TEAM IN THE NBA!

by ZonaFlash on Mar 20, 2008 9:34 AM MDT up reply actions

Dallas vs Suns, in first round.

Dallas is not a threat because Kidd can't guard Nash. They don't have big bodies to guard Shaq anymore. They would be the easiest team.

The Spurs just lost to Boston. Heck, I am hoping they won't even make it to the playoff.

I think Utah is the scariest team for the Suns. Terrible match-ups.

Lakers can be scary. But they are having tons of injuries. I don't think they can sustain.

Houston, and Hornets are very inexperienced with the playoffs. I don't see them going far unless they face each other - just like how Utah got to the Western conference final last year.

by sonicking on Mar 17, 2008 9:18 PM MDT reply actions

Ill-advised, I'm sure

I think the Spurs in the 1st round would be great. Vanquish some demons, get some mojo going. The Lakers at full-strength scare me, but as an LA resident, it's pretty awesome rocking the Suns hoodie after pwning them in the playoffs.

After the Suns lost to the Bulls in the Finals, I had the misfortune of being in Chicago for the celebration parade. No. Fun. At. All. It's nice to have scoreboard in enemy territory. (NB: At Staples for the Pac-10 championship game on Saturday, I saw the championship banners. Until we win a ring, we are the pre-2004 Red Sox to their Yankees. Rivals only in the sense that we hate them without the hardware to back it up. Bummer, eh?)

by Mike Lisboa on Mar 18, 2008 12:56 AM MDT reply actions

You don't

want to face the Spurs.

by Key on Mar 20, 2008 9:07 AM MDT up reply actions

Oh yes we do.

We want to be the ones.

I'd rather lose to the Tools than miss the chance to beat them in the Playoffs.

If we can't beat you guys, I'm fine with us going home early.

The SUNS - NOW THE HOTTEST TEAM IN THE NBA!

by ZonaFlash on Mar 20, 2008 9:29 AM MDT up reply actions

How about the standings as of today?

I think the current matchups as of today are about as favorable as they could be:

Round 1: Utah with home court edge in Phx
Round 2: Houston or Golden State

Spurs, Lakers, Hornets, or Dallas in the WCF. I really like seeing all these teams in the other bracket together.

by SoCalSun on Mar 18, 2008 11:51 AM MDT reply actions

GOTTA BE THE SPURS

Like many other comments, I agree, I want the Spurs.

If we can take them out, mentally we will be ready for anyone.

If we are healthy, the most important thing in the playoffs is the mentality of your squad.

The Lakers will be around for us later. I'll take them in the WCF.

by rc74 on Mar 18, 2008 1:02 PM MDT reply actions

Spurs are looking weak

but so is Dallas. They just lost to the Fakers, without Gasol, without Bynum.

"You can never have too many shooters." - Cotton

by ZonaFlash on Mar 18, 2008 9:27 PM MDT up reply actions

Believe me

you don't want to face the Spurs.

by Key on Mar 20, 2008 9:09 AM MDT up reply actions

meh.

The SUNS - NOW THE HOTTEST TEAM IN THE NBA!

by ZonaFlash on Mar 20, 2008 9:36 AM MDT up reply actions

Dallas loss

The Mavs looked pathetic for most of the game. The last play was a typical Mavericks end of game play, producimg no real shot except a desperation heave from 35 feet by Dirk. I can't believe with JT and Howard on the floor that they couldn't get a good shot off. But they threw it to Dirk, and let him make the decision. why not throw it to Kidd? Isn't that wwhat they got him for?

'07-'08 Suns: It's clobberin' time!

by Hawk42 on Mar 19, 2008 5:53 AM MDT reply actions

LOL at this

From ESPN's Marc Stein:

The Mavs watched helplessly as Sasha Vujacic tossed in a clutch jumper of his own near the end, which had Vujacic -- yes, Vujacic -- following up with a Dikembe Mutombo-style finger wag.

by TexSUN on Mar 19, 2008 9:04 AM MDT up reply actions