Immovable Object meets Irresistible Force Immovable Object

In Kung Fu movies and comic books, it's traditional to pit like-skilled and like-powered adversaries against each other. It's just more suspenseful that way.  For example, the final battle of X-Men 2 (X2) involves Wolverine facing Deathstrike, because, hey, of all the superpowers in the comic book universe, they happen to have the exact same powers.  

The Suns-Spurs Playoffs will be just like that.   Sure one's more brutish and the other one's prettier, but of all possible matchups, these two teams are now among the most similar in the playoffs.   Unlike years past, this SUNS team is no longer undersized.  And despite the early offense the Suns run, the Suns have not appeared particularly speedy, especially defensively, compared to the younger teams of the NBA.  Of all possible matchups against the teams with home court (Lakers, Hornets, Spurs and Jazz), the Spurs are the team the Suns could most plausibly beat. And they'll do it not by raining threes (see below), but by pounding the rock.

Both teams feature MVP caliber charity stripe bricklayers anchored to the low post.  The difference is that it's now Spurs fans who talk about high PNRs and doubling down low.  Both teams feature defensive all-teamers that spread defenses with the 3-ball.   Both teams boast of a sixth-man of the year, the difference is that Spurs fans are really proud their best player is getting 6th man recognition.   Both teams are old as hell.  The Suns starting line-up aged 19 years since last year.  The Spurs bench might be the oldest in the league.

And speaking of the two oldest teams in the NBA, check out how I subtly lied to you. You're now thinking this series is going to be like X2 fresh and exciting. Unh-unh. This series between the NBA's two crankiest and whiniest old teams is going to be more like Grumpy Old Men. Expect to see more shenanigans, bitching and moaning than ever.

A Few Key Matchups

Because of cross-matching we look at specific matchups of interest.  Brought to you by Match.com.

Duncan vs. Shaq - We got this one.  Duncan will be defended by either Shaq or Amare depending on foul situation.

Kurt on Amare - Kurt Thomas is a very smart pro.  He has been able to lure Amare into stupid fouls at both ends of the floor. Kurt is also a much better rebounder than Amare, so ol' crazy eyes may hurt the Suns in unexpected ways this series.  

Bowen on Nash -   Solved.  The Spurs have unwisely overused Bowen on Nash in an attempt to wear Nash down.  In the last game, Nash was completely unfazed by Bowen's defense.

Nash on Bowen -   We hope that Nash doesn't leave the Spurs best 3 point shooter late in games.  With Shaq, Nash has even less reason than ever to leave Bowen.  

Nash/Hill on Tony Parker -   Tony Parker has struggled a bit this year, so it's unclear how much credit to give to Nash and Hill.  However, Nash did show plausible capability to stay relatively in front of Parker and to steer Parker into the Big Shaqtus.   The caveat is that our bigs took big fouls in both Spurs games, so failures on Nash's D lead to foul trouble for Shaq and Amare.  Hill in the 4th quarter continues to provide a nice change up and for a game or two Hill appeared to lock down Parker.

Raja Bell on Manu -   This will continue to be a treat.  Manu the Masochist and Raja Bell both live for physical games.  Raja's D, according to Hollinger, is better than ever.  I hope we don't have to see LB on Manu.  Manu is just too big.  Possibly Hill on Manu a little bit? I can only hope Manu continues to recover slowly from injury.

Bench -   Our younger bench should have the advantage, but the Spurs bench is battle-tested if worn out. I like our chances to gain ground with Nash resting.

Bowen the X-Factor -   This is a matchup of wills.  Bowen still has the ability to hurt someone or take one of our stars out of the game.  He could hurt Nash. He will likely hurt Nash.  Even more likely, he will piss off Amare enough to get Amare ejected or suspended.  

One Final Matchup:

Suns Fans vs. Spurs Fans.

For the Sweet Young Fans of the SUNS, the SUNS should win this series and send the aged Spurs to an overdue grave.   We're younger, smarter, sweeter, funnier and better-looking. And yes, you wish we served fries with that!

Remember how I said the two teams were the most similar?  They are, but the Spurs will have no answer for Amare!

3 Reasons This Series Will Go 7

This series will not be a walk in the park, for three reasons.  

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• First, the series will go 7 because the Suns have never shown much of a killer instinct.  How many times have the Suns toyed around and gone seven games with a lesser team? That they do not have homecourt is actually funny because most times when they do, they squander it by losing the very first game of the series.  The Suns are often caught on their heels by their opponents increased intensity, be it an in-game comeback or the first game of the playoffs.  
• Second, the Suns will not be able to count on the three ball.  
  
• Third, despite the ongoing locker room lovefest, evidence suggests that the Suns have not yet fully solved their on-court chemistry issues.
  

Let's look at these last two points in turn.

What's the Forecast from Downtown?  Gridlock!

Don't expect to see a lot of great 3 point shooting in the Suns-Spurs series.  

In four games this year, the league's best sharpshooters, the Suns, have shot a paltry 28% from 3 compared to 39% as a team for the season.   In the two games since Shaq arrived, the Suns also have 8 fewer attempts per game against the Spurs than they average for the season (13.5 versus 21.5).  The Spurs in those four games, led by Bruce Bowen, Ime Udoka and Manu Ginobili, have actually made more threes with a better percentage (20 of 62 or 32%) than the Suns.  

Only Nash, Bell and Barbosa can be trusted to hit the outside shot and recenlty only Bell has been sharp.  Watching Barbosa badly miss wide open ones has been a jarring and a shockingly regular occurrence.  On the bright side, bad misses result in longer rebounds.  Nash has seemed hampered by aches and pains, his 11 for 34 shotting in April putting a late damper on his virtual tie with Jason Kapono for best three point shooting percentage in the NBA.  Nash has shot 3 times as many threes as Jason Kapono (4.8 compared to 1.5 attempts, respectively) and also has increased difficulty due to having to create his shots rather than catch and shoot.  Gordan Giricek's 37.5% shooting from 3 is respectable, but he attempts less than 2.3 tries per game and makes less than 1 per game.

Overall, because of the Suns recent 3 point shooting limitations and the Spurs success at defending the arc, expect the three point shooting to be a wash.  Where Bruce Bowen killed the Suns last year late in games from 3, expect him to be covered better now that Duncan no longer requires a double-team down low.

What's the Frequency, Kenneth?

Unlike most teams, the Suns have not had the luxury to work out all of the kinks yet.  It's these kinks that result in offensive stinkers like the 4th quarter against Dallas.  The offense lurches forward and stalls.  On average it's great, but quarter-to-quarter, game-to-game, the consistency is bad.  The main offenders are cold shooting and turnovers.  Not much can be done about poor shooting, especially when your best shooter has shoulder problems.  But turnovers are the direct result of confusion and players attempting to do too much, or things they are not accustomed to doing.  

Defensively, those turnovers also rear its evil head as they are cashed in for high percentage shots and fouls.  The Suns still struggle with energy and a confusing array of defensive schemes.  They have looked slow and sluggish when trying to switch from standing around in the zone to man-to-man and from man-to-man to the double/switch run-around defense of the pre-Shaq era. It's hard to switch speeds and intensity in a game.  

Overall, those turnovers are killer on both ends of the court.  Further they have persisted and continue to persist.  One point of hope, however, is that the Suns assist-to-turnover ratio was higher in the past 10 games than it had been all season.  

Some Trends and Stuff

Oh and here's some indicators I cooked up just to look at the current state of the team.  I use 7-game moving averages b/c the playoffs are 7-game series.  Both shooting AND attempts are both down at the arc AND at the line.  That ain't so good.  Assist-to-Turnovers are the highest they've been all year.  That's good.