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Stretching for the Final Run Home

Seven games left. Its kind of hard to believe. It only seemed like 5 months ago that the season started with a wimper.

A few bumps and bruises along the way and oh yes, there was the big mid-season acquisition.

Now we are down to these final seven games. The home stretch. The final stanza. The end game.

The last bunch of games we discussed didn't go quite as planned. I was looking for 4 out of 6 and we ended up 3 and 3. In the end though I don't really have a problem with that. Fortunately, the Lakers tanked a few and we are still right there in the standings where we need to be.

The Detroit loss was a close one on the road with some bad "luck" and I still think that Coach D was just playing around in Boston and for some reason played WAY too much zone. The loss last night has a certain someone reeling but I am not all that concerned given the circumstances.

Cram time

In just a few more weeks the real season starts for Suns fans. Folks started this year with as much disinterest and impatience in the regular season as I have ever seen. Well, now the time is almost here. But before it starts we have a few more games for final cramming before the big test. Here's what's left on my study sheet:

Defense: The Suns D is vastly improved from that disaster we were seeing just a few weeks ago. The perimeter guys have really stepped up. Most notably Nash and LB are playing much better and Amare and Diaw are really covering the pick and rolls better and the team is finally rotating well. They deserve a LOT of credit for the improvement.

In the 13 games since beating the Spurs the Suns have held teams to 44% FG and are a +3 on the boards. One area of concern is turnovers. The Suns are slightly above league average at 15/game and below in turnovers caused at 12/game. When the Suns create turnovers, grab rebounds and block shots that sparks the fast break for easy baskets.

The biggest hole continues to be Shaq's inability to cover big guys that can shoot or guard the pick and roll. We saw it when Nenad Cristic started the Nets game with about 32 consecutive jump shots. We saw it last night when Camby was left open to take and hit some open J's to win the game. You can argue that you would take that problem over getting beat up inside. And that might be true. But the only answer the Suns have so far against teams with bigs that shoot is the zone. And the zone can be decimated unless its used selectively and in short bursts.

I don't really think there is an answer to this problem. Its simply a huge gap in the mid-range part of the floor that we are going to have to live with.

Offense: At 54% FG and 115/game over the last 13, I don't think there's much to complain about here. Turnovers are a little high but I think that will work itself out in the playoffs.

The Suns are simply awesome on this end of the court. Far better going into this post season then previous teams with balanced scoring, inside and outside presense, a dominant offensive isolation player, and a great point guard to run it all.

In a three game stretch the Suns played Houston, Detroit and Boston. Top 3 defensive teams. The Suns averaged 53% FG and 108 points in those games. I don't think there's much left here but fine tuning the piano.

Bench: I give up on this one. If Coach D isn't going to bring Skinner in during that first half against Denver at home in a game without Hill and where the team is clearly needing an energy boost then I don't think that leopard is changing his spots.

The good news is compared to previous years we do have a solid 8 man rotation with Diaw playing a big role and LB and Moodicek able to come in and light it up. At least once or twice a week.

I am glad they gave Grant some extra rest both to get him well but also to give some extra minutes to the other three guys but I don't see much changing between now and the end of the season. This rotation is locked down tight. Sorry Brian and DJ. You can hope for some garbage time but that's the only whiff you are going to see.

Seven Games - Six Wins

The schedule isn't all that bad during this end run stretch. One back to back which unfortunately is against the Spurs in SA. Let's just write that one off now ok. A win would be a nice bonus but a loss at this point isn't going to matter. The rest of the games are very winable and will provide a nice close to the season if we can grab six of them.

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How embarrassing
Some of those early season comments from yours truly include:
  • Calling the Lakers a "one night wonder"
  • Pointing out how we lost to them in the home opener the year before then owned them the rest of the way.
  • Predicting the Suns to win 60 games, and compounding that bogus prediction by calling out Ziller and Hollinger for predicting 54.

by TexSUN on Apr 2, 2008 12:20 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Well come on

Every prediction is really crap.  No one can possibly know this kind of stuff.  

The whole suns brass felt the same way you did, and it's their livelihood to know.    

by ZonaFlash on Apr 2, 2008 3:20 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Speaking of Hollinger and predictions
Check out his "Crystal Ball" predictions of the Western Conference - I think he's pretty spot on with the Suns - if they can win 6 games, that'll be the only way they take the Lakers if they keep winning, as they own the tiebreaker.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=WestForecast- 080403&action=upsell&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba%2finsider%2fcolumns% 2fstory%3fcolumnist%3dhollinger_john%26page%3dWestForecast-080403

Subscribe to Run N Gun Podcast here www.thesportsstuff.com

by dang on Apr 3, 2008 3:33 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think 5 of 7 is tops

6 of 7 is possible, but I just don't see us being that locked in against Dallas, Golden State, Houston and sometimes, weird stuff happens, and you drop a game to a loose and carefree Minny team that plays out of their minds.

by ZonaFlash on Apr 2, 2008 3:27 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

We've talked about Dallas

not having their shit together since the JK trade.  

I don't think the SUNZ have themselves together yet either.

The SUNZ are not locked in and still have lots of rough edges on their game right now.

Hopefully the team comes together ("gels") over the final 7 games.  That's all I want these 7 games.  

The longer these guys play together, the better they are going to get.

by ZonaFlash on Apr 2, 2008 3:30 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Not sweating Dallas, liking the Suns
Nice recap Stan, and I concur with your assessment.  The D is vastly improved, with the exception of that hole in the mid-range for opposing bigs to shoot at that you mentioned.  I much prefer that as opposed to the way the team was getting crushed on the boards every frakking night before the Big Cactus arrived.  On the other hand, for those of us who play fantasy hoops, you could always pencil in a huge night for your mediocre power forward or center who was going up against the Suns...

Meanwhile, the offense is spectacular-again! Still!  In a whole new flavor!  As much as I wanted to buy Kerr and D'Antoni's spin that they could keep running with Shaq, I'm not sure I really believed they'd keep putting up the sick offensive numbers they have been.

I'd love to see them go 6-1, and if they do I'm certain that would get them the 3 seed, but I think 5-2 is more likely--I'm seeing that desperate Warriors team playing out of their minds  for one night there.  Either way, let's get G-Hill healthy and maybe this rash of technicals will buy some calls down the line.

by SoCalSun on Apr 2, 2008 4:08 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

'desperate'?
The 'desperate' Warrior team sure played awfully flat here in Dallas.
'07-'08 Suns: It's clobberin' time!

by Hawk42 on Apr 3, 2008 7:39 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

7 more
Hopefully our guys will put down the Grizzlies early on the 8th and get the starters out early to keep them fresh for the Spurs on the 9th.

Looking at our remaining schedule, it's not too bad and could actually be worse.  The Hornets, for example, still have 9 more games, including 3 back to backs (we have one more back to back).

Utah has 6 of their 7 remaining games against the Spurs, Hornets, Mavericks, Nuggets, Rockets and Spurs.  Their only saving grace is they have zero back to backs.  

Except for Dallas, the other playoff bound teams currently seeded 1-7 have 3 or 4 games against other Western Conf. playoff bound teams.  Dallas has 5 of those harder games and their final game is against New Orleans.  I would definitely not want to have to play N.O. with my playoff hopes swinging in the balance.

by TwinnerA on Apr 2, 2008 4:40 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

final thoughts
That was a very great season and this is a very entertaining way to end it (although I begin to be mentally disturbed with this very competitive march stretch, I woke up in the middle of the night last, the night they played the home game versus Denver dreaming they had loose 136-132, only to wake up a few hours later and read that they won in a beautiful way...)!

I think the last few games (since the spurs game) were very interesting and brought a lot of hope about the quality of this team after the trade (which I really hated at the time it happened...), but it seems that there still are some problems: first, the lost games they should (and could) have won, like the Detroit games and the second Denver game. I know the first was partly lost on poor calls from the refs, and that the second was a tough back to back, but it would have been a statement game to show the league that Phx was able to win against a very good team at home and back to back games against a desperate team fighting for playoff spots. Instead, they lost (in a very acceptable way, I agree with Stan and some others), and it could be very costly with the remaining schedule.

TwinnerA is right, some other western contenders face also a tough schedule, and ours could be worse. But we still have to face
*    a Dallas team that will fight to prove the world they can beat a good team and, and Nowitski who shall be very motivated
*    a second game of back to back against the spurs on the road. No comments (the up-and-down with the seeding is quite amazing this year, two weeks ago the some people were wondering whether the Spurs will make the post season!)
*    Two games against western contenders which shall also fight for playoff participation or seeding.
*   
That is 4 very tough, albeit winnable, games. Considering the competition here, seven wins would be amazing and quite entertaining, but I think Zonaflash and SoCalSun made the point: 5-2 is more probable. If Houston, Dallas, Denver and Golden State don't win their entire remaining schedule, it's a good way to finish the season at the 5th seed, facing Utah (with home court advantage I hope). But it one or two of these teams are getting into a winning streak, the two losses I spoke about earlier could bre very costly: entering playoff in the 6th, 7th or 8th could mean facing NO, SA or LA. We don't want that in the first round (if I had to choose, I pick the LA with a rusty Bynum and we own them for the third season...).

Therefore, that means that Phx shall:
*    DESTROY Minnesota and rest the starters (and bring a bit Skinner, like the other night)
*    Guard Nowitski
*    DESTROY Memphis and rest the starters
*    Bring all the energy they can against Houston and GS, in order to be confident

By the way, it could be very nice for the bench player to come big and light up EVERY GAME and TOGETHER. I mean, it seems like each game, one of them is on fire, another is so-so, and the third come flat. The three have now to light up every game...

That's all for today, and I probably won't write so much comments (at least not so long), it's very time consuming for me to write in English, and perhaps not so much interesting after the nice job you're doing here at BSotS!

where full french will finally happen...

by warmup on Apr 3, 2008 2:16 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Failure to take the win that was for the taking...
The effect of the Nuggets loss is that we find ourselves under the gun for the home court in a poteential 4-5 matchup with the Jazz.  Utah has surged of late, and we now lead them by only one game in the loss column.  The home court is critical against the Jazz.
'07-'08 Suns: It's clobberin' time!

by Hawk42 on Apr 3, 2008 8:10 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

In other news...
I just read Hollinger's article on ESPN :

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=WestForecast- 080403&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba%2finsider%2fcolumns%2 fstory%3fcolumnist%3dhollinger_john%26page%3dWestForecast-080403

He has some good analysis there and points out that the Suns will likely need to go 6-1 or 7-0 in order to nab the third seed.  The third seed might, according to him, mean a first round date with Houston (perfect) and a second round date with San Antonio (apparently, one of our better matchups).  That is assuming, of course, that San Antonio wins their 2-7 match up and remains the 2 seed.  I can see San Antonio being upset if they face Dallas in the first round since Dallas has been a team with San Antonio's number in past years.  But even then, Houston and San Antonio or Houston and Dallas sounds like one of the more appealing tracks to the WCF, dontcha think?

by RealTangiblesGuy on Apr 3, 2008 12:38 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Matrix Out for Season
http://www.nba.com/nba_news/marion_out_080403.html

Marion out for season with foot injury.  Seriously?  This has got to be tanking, this guy is unstoppable.

by RealTangiblesGuy on Apr 3, 2008 2:22 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

What?
How does a back injury turn into a foot injury?  I loved (past tense) the Matrix, but now his true colors have come to light.  

by TwinnerA on Apr 3, 2008 2:57 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe the Heat
training staff is so bad that they actually make players worse...
Phx - where run and thunder happens

by Phoenix Stan on Apr 3, 2008 3:09 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

tanking clearly

Or you know, saving him for the 2008-2009 season.  It would be a pity for him to get injured in a few final meaningless games in the next season is on the line.

You always want to rest your starters at the end of the regular season!

by ZonaFlash on Apr 3, 2008 3:08 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

You always want to rest your starters.....
"You always want to rest your starters at the end of the regular season!"

Especially if you own the worst record!

Matrix will be back with D.Wade next season and I'd like to think there will be a difference seen for Marion's sake. But hey at the end of the day, this is what he wanted, I bet something within him wishes he was still out there playing and gearing up for a playoffs run with the Suns!!!!!

Subscribe to Run N Gun Podcast here www.thesportsstuff.com

by dang on Apr 3, 2008 3:39 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

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