Gut Check: Care to Update Your Forecast?

by ZonaFlash on Apr 25, 2008 4:48 AM MDT in Phoenix Suns Commentary

Overall, it looks like the TrueHoop statgeeks with their hard information are doing better at guessing this series than the ESPN commentators with their soft information.

I use the terms "hard" and "soft" in the technical sense. Hard information is easily transmitted, communicated and verified, like box scores. Soft information is not and includes details about player motivation, coaching foibles and tendencies. One caveat is that statgeeks often evaluate their hard information through a soft lens.

I made my guess purely on the constraints that [1] the Suns must win and [2] Suns fans, by the very definition of being fans, are too optimistic. Suns in 7 was the only option.

Jalen Rose, Kevin Pelton, Henry Abbott's Mom and I picked the Suns in 7, and I am sticking by it. And just so you know - Henry's Mom lost the 2007 statgeek smackdown last year... but Kevin Pelton almost won - he came in a close second.

What about you?

A look at how the "experts" picked after the jump:

Poll

What's Your Series Forecast Now?

I'm a homer - Suns in 6!!

22 votes

I'm a cautious optimist - Suns in 7!

43 votes

(Suns Fans Only) I'm down on the coach - Spurs in 7!

6 votes

I'm NOT a Suns fan, but think the Suns are gonna fight - Spurs in 7!

3 votes

(Suns Fans Only) Time to rebuild - Spurs in 4, 5 or 6!

31 votes

I'm NOT a Suns fan and you guys are toast! Spurs in 4, 5 or 6!

55 votes

160 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

I'm counting about 5 Spurs fans

who can’t read instructions. =)

If you’re Suns fan and you think the Suns will Set in 6, fess up! I want to hear about it.

by ZonaFlash on Apr 25, 2008 7:33 AM MDT reply actions

I'm been optimist

Suns in 7!!!!
Damn I just hope this team WAKES UP!
Lb needs to get it going, I can live without Diaw’s production but not LB. He’s too good of a shooter.
Raja needs to start hitting threes, Coach D should draw more plays for him also, the Spurs are all over him, if he get’s it going early we can “bust them”. =S

And how about “running” just a little bit more!!!

"Basketball doesn't build character. It reveals it"

by PanamaSun on Apr 25, 2008 7:45 AM MDT up reply actions