Game 4 - The Last Stand
by Phoenix Stan
on Apr 26, 2008 11:20 PM MDT
in Game Coverage
There aren't any (sane) Suns fans left who think this series can be salvaged. At this point its a matter of pride and heart. Getting swept by the Spurs is unacceptable. Getting swept on your home floor unfathomable.
The Suns need to come out and show the poise and composure that's been lacking all series. The Spurs are not going to hit all those open jumpers again but they are also not going to let down.
Shaq needs to step up after a horrible first half in game 3. He was catching the ball to far from the rim and not making any attempt to spin or go strong to the rim. Instead he was settling for out of range hook shots.
Nash needs to find a way to keep the offense flowing, the ball moving and to work some screens to get his own shot off. In the 1st quarter the ball was sticking and the Suns looked flat. They were getting the ball into Shaq but weren't even trying to run any down screens to get him in good position under the rim.
Defensively, its all about the activity, energy and rotations. The Suns aren't suddendly become a great defensive team. But with enough hustle they can overcome the lack of coherent defensive strategy and at least get enough stops to win this game.
If you want to see great defense, watch how three Spurs collapse on Diaw as soon as he beats his man. They close off the passing lanes to Shaq and Amare and force a tough pass out to Bell. Because the pass was contested it doesn't get to Bell in place where he can quickly shoot and by the time he gets set the Spurs have recovered back.
Most importantly, the Suns need to do much better in those key stretches of the game. Game 3 was lost in the final 2 minutes of the first half. The Sun had closed to within 7 and were down 48-41. They had actually outscore the Spurs at that point in the quarter by 7 points. The Spurs then went on a 13-6 run to close the half capped by Parker's inexcusable coast to coast drive at the buzzer.
Then in the 3rd quater coming out down by 14 they promptly gave up another run and within 4 minutes were down by 20 and the game was effectively over.
Most importantly, its time to show some of this...
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Your last pic is right - Suns Autopsy
For me, this game is an autopsy on a live patient.
I don’t care if they get swept or not, it’s completely immaterial. Playing for pride is a total fan myth. Maybe its a player myth too.
They needed to play with heart and pride when it counted, not when it’s all over.
I vote for a sweep, just as a mercy killing. I will watch today’s game with the sound off, because I know that for the next season I will hear the same dumb shock and awe statements, the same platitudes and pity at least 50 times each game.
I will watch this game diagnostically with the dispassionate eye of forensic post mortem examiner.
The Hype King
by ZonaFlash on Apr 27, 2008 12:19 AM MDT 0 recs
Not me
Some of our guys on the team will be feeling worse about the outcome of this series than we are. They have my full support until the end.
by RealTangiblesGuy on
Apr 27, 2008 1:04 AM MDT
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That's a good attitude RTG!
I hope the team feel the same. We all grieve differently.
The Hype King - I hype you long time
by ZonaFlash on
Apr 27, 2008 1:45 AM MDT
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Love your team through the good times and the bad. don’t turn your back on them. they know they are in a bad spot, they don’t need to be reminded by their fans
by Stymo on
Apr 27, 2008 1:51 AM MDT
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oh come on!
I’m not showing any disloyalty here to be pretty disappointed with the team’s showing. I’m not blaming any of the players or coaches or management. I’m still here. I’m still sitting through the games, no matter how painful.
If anything, I hate to watch them go through these games and the heap of criticism they will carry for the next few days and the coming season.
My point was “playing for pride” is a weak sentiment. If you want to believe the suns can still win, then I support that. If you just want to play to avoid a sweep, I say why bother.
I didn’t give up on the team until I saw Coach D’Antoni give up. I saw him give up in the 4th quarter, hunched in his little chair on the bench. He stopped fighting then.
I’m no less a fan than you are. =)
The Hype King - I hype you long time
by ZonaFlash on
Apr 27, 2008 2:13 AM MDT
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Its gonna be a sweep
I can’t see your guys trying the very best (which is what they need to beat the spurs) when they pretty much know its over.
Shaq:"The kobster, he's an assassin" Answer for who should be mvp.
by ldeep on Apr 27, 2008 1:41 AM MDT 0 recs
I'm rooting for a total collapse
If it looks like Mike D’Antoni has lost the team, that increases the odds that he’ll get canned. No, he’s not the only problem; in fact, I think he’s a good coach. But the Spurs have him figured out, and he has no answer for them. If you can’t beat the Spurs, you’re not going to get out of the West.
So, it’s time for Mike to move on. A poor showing today will speed the process.
by beatcal on Apr 27, 2008 6:35 AM MDT 0 recs
No way - I'm rooting to get Mike an extension! =)
Seriously – we are going to have a muchos grandesimo “Fire D’Antoni” pow wow soon, and I’ll be is numero uno public defender!
Look for it!
The Hype King - I hype you long time
by ZonaFlash on
Apr 27, 2008 7:52 AM MDT
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For the Record
The Hawks avoided the sweep….think about it
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Phoenix Stan on
Apr 27, 2008 11:56 AM MDT
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What is the statistics on sweeps?
Hey, I know that no team has ever come back from 0-3 and I don’t think this Suns team can. But I am just curious. Once a team is down 0-3, what is the historical percentage of winning game 4?
by sonicking on Apr 27, 2008 8:13 AM MDT 0 recs
Sorry, I don't know the historical. =)
However, here’s a purely statistical viewpoint on the series:
First, ignore homecourt. Each team has 2 games left at home, assuming the series goes to 7.
Imagine that the two teams were evenly matched – a 50-50 coin flip.
The probability then of going 4-0 is (50%)^4 = 6.25%. These are great odds in my view.
However – you know something you didn’t know before. You know that it is probabilistically unlikely the two teams are evenly matched.
Because one team has gone 3-0, you learn that the two teams are not likely evenly matched. It is far more probable that the team that goes 3-0 (Spurs) is better than the team that goes 0-3 (Suns). This is called Bayes’ Rule in statistics.
For arguments sake, suppose the probabilities are 60% the Spurs win any game (they’ve won 3 of 5 since Shaq arrived) and 40% the suns win.
Then the probability of going 4-0 in the remainder of the games assuming 40% win probability is 2.6%.
Finally, these are just statistics. I do not think they have much bearing on the game at all. Suppose D’Antoni discovers a new attack, or shuts down Parker, then the odds shift. Suppose Duncan gets injured, again the odds shift. The game is played on the court with energy, heart and the gimlet eyes, not in my SAS programs.
The Hype King - I hype you long time
by ZonaFlash on
Apr 27, 2008 8:37 AM MDT
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I know a little bit about Bayes' Theorem..
I would have used a Beta prior, with both parameters = 1, on the probability of the Phoenix winning to account for the assumption that both teams were even before the playoff. Thus, after 3 playoff games, the posterior probability of Phoenix winning a game is distributed Beta (1,4), with the expected value = 0.2. This is NOT good.
by sonicking on
Apr 27, 2008 11:47 AM MDT
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beta prior is correct.
What’s your background? =)
The Hype King - I hype you long time
by ZonaFlash on
Apr 27, 2008 11:57 AM MDT
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Geek???
Just a guess
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Phoenix Stan on
Apr 27, 2008 11:58 AM MDT
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Said with love and envy of course :)
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Phoenix Stan on
Apr 27, 2008 11:58 AM MDT
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just an empirical reseracher trying to get his Phd...
but getting disappointed and heart-broken to see the Suns losing.
by sonicking on
Apr 27, 2008 11:59 AM MDT
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Yeah cool! but
Researcher in what?
Stan – we may have our very own suns moneyball quant guy!
The Hype King - I hype you long time
by ZonaFlash on
Apr 27, 2008 12:01 PM MDT
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Excellent
I know a few marketing grad students at Cornell, UNC and IU…
They tell me, “Bayesian decision-making analysis and dynamic programming, they just aren’t enough anymore.”
=)
The Hype King - I hype you long time
by ZonaFlash on
Apr 27, 2008 12:07 PM MDT
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DP and Bayesian decision theory
i think the majority of the marketing field do not use them. Those techniques are just too damn difficult…
by sonicking on
Apr 27, 2008 12:13 PM MDT
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Depends which branch you are
Are you behavioral/psychological side of marketing or on the quant/modeling side?
Cornell is all quant/economic modeling marketers.
The Hype King - I hype you long time
by ZonaFlash on
Apr 27, 2008 12:28 PM MDT
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There's all kinds of geeks!
I just like th know which one sonicking is!! =)
The Hype King - I hype you long time
by ZonaFlash on
Apr 27, 2008 11:59 AM MDT
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According to an article in the Arizona Republic...
...teams up 3-0 in a 7 game series sweep 60% of the time.
by Mike Lisboa on
Apr 27, 2008 10:04 AM MDT
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How this team responds
today is going to say a lot about how they feel about the coach. They all know he’s under fire and will either rally around him and defend him (which I haven’t heard yet) or they will play like they did Friday and fold.
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Phoenix Stan on
Apr 27, 2008 10:31 AM MDT
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Play not for pride, just play to win
Ok, so I wouldn’t head to Vegas today looking to make money on the Suns, but as a fan I’ll still be rooting-just as I said before-until the lights go out at the Purple Palace for the last time this season. I think there’s an excellent chance that will be today, incidentally, so all the more reason to tune in.
I’m not sure that playing for pride will be any more effective than playing to protect home court was on Friday, but hey, whatever works for those guys to motivate themselves.
Those “there can be only one” spots are right on the money, the Suns didn’t dig deep enough (or the Spurs dug deeper), and now they’ll be going home. The question is will they dig deep enough to avoid the broom?
by SoCalSun on Apr 27, 2008 10:57 AM MDT 1 recs
Just have fun and play...
I think the Suns were relaxed during game 1. But that loss really hurt them. Game 2, even worse. With game 3 and so much pressure (being at home and all), that makes them worse.
I agree with Nash. Just play and enjoy. Winning isn’t everything when you come this far.
As much as I think the Spurs “know how to win”, I still don’t like them. Did the Lakers (Kobe + Shaq) and the Bulls (Jordan) use “cheap shot Rob” or “hack-a-insert-name” to win?
Being able to win games is different from being able to win over the fans, this is why the ratings are low when the Spurs get to the final.
by sonicking on Apr 27, 2008 11:55 AM MDT 1 recs
Ah my favorite
theory of sports… in the end its just a form of entertainment…
Still – I will be much more entertained with a WIN!
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Phoenix Stan on
Apr 27, 2008 11:57 AM MDT
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Of course I want to see the Suns come back...
But this is just tooooooo unlikely. So I just want them to be competitive and have a good game.
I couldn’t even finish watching game 3. I just don’t want that to happen again…
by sonicking on
Apr 27, 2008 12:23 PM MDT
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Headed out now
Leaving for the game…
For those who care about such things – and I know there are many of us that do – I am going w/ my 2001 Purple Randy Johnson #51 jersey. Representing the last (and only) championship for a home team and a nod to JC for bringing a ring home.
Oh, and a not so subtle reminder of a guy that could (in his day) bring the heat…
I gave my Orange Matrix #31 to Wife of Stan to wear as a reminder of his great years here and maybe some kind of defensive stand.
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Phoenix Stan on Apr 27, 2008 12:01 PM MDT 0 recs
And the winning jersye is...
None of the above. Friday’s multiple jersey swap technique was a complete debacle. As Sunday dawned, I was in full “Still a fan but facing the inevitable end” mode and decided it was enough with the logo gear—not a stitch from head to toe. Popped a suns bottle cooler on the brewski at tip-off, but other than that nada. Clearly that’s the right call. Going to have to take one (or several) for the team and drink hearty on Tuesday! :)
by SoCalSun on
Apr 27, 2008 5:31 PM MDT
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