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Beat. The. Spurs. From someone who knows nothing about beating the Spurs

Its Thursday night and we should might be watching the Suns close out the Spurs in game 6. My NBA body clock has not adjusted to the new reality of Darth_mediumbeing bounced in April for the first time in a long long time. 

To scratch the itch, the basketball jones if you will, I decided to break down the Spurs-Hornets series and provide our new BFF's in NO with a winning game plan against the evil empire. If we can't do it maybe they can. 

But first, three reasons why you should stop right here and go watch The Office instead of reading this:

1) The obvious - why on earth would anyone with affiliation or even passing alligence to the Phoenix Suns claim to have the answer to the Spurs. Great point. You can stop now.

2) I have only really watched the Hornets play four times this season so I don't know all that much about them. Of course they won all four of those games (against the Suns) and I have watched a lot of Spurs playoff ball for a lot of years.

3) I am just a stupid blogger and obviously anything I say, type or think should be rejected out of hand for the total blather that it obviously is.

You can read on if you want, but don't say you weren't warned.

 

Star-divide

The Suns Winning Game Plan

In defending the Spurs over the years there are some things that worked well for Phoenix and others that didn't. Mostly the Suns choose the later but perhaps the Hornets and Byron Scott can learn from those mistakes.

Defending Duncan with single coverage. It is crucial that teams don't double down on Timmy in the post. The only time the Spurs really move the ball well is out of the post and their aged perimeter players will make open stand still 3's if you let them.

If you do double Duncan what seems to work best is to come late after he's started his move to the middle. If you are going to do this of course you have to overplay the baseline hand and be very smart and timely when your come across the lane with another big man. Come quick. Come hard. Or stay home.

The Hornet's should matchup well with Tyson Chandler. Beyond him, Hilton Armstrong can be effective fronting as well but he better be prepared to work his ass off because Duncan is going to battle for every inch of position.

I think the Hornets are well equipped to give Duncan a battle and that bodes well.

Stopping the pick and roll. The Spurs offense isn't all that imaginative. They aren't going to drive and dish or cut through the lane or use back cuts to drive the baseline. What they will do is pick and roll you to death. And while Parker and Ginobili are dangerous they NEVER play off each other. Having them on the floor at the same time is kind of useless which is the real reason why Manu doesn't start.

I am guessing that in isolation and transition Paul can do as well as anyone possibly can against Parker and I hope Pargo and Mo Pete can at least try and stay in front of Manu (and make him drive right!). But the Spurs aren't just going to face up in iso like the Mavs do.

The Suns went into the series thinking that they needed to stay home on the perimeter guys - Bowen and Finely mostly but also Udoka and Barry - and switch the pick and rolls and lay back in the lane with Shaq. That was a disaster.

What worked best was old fashion hard working full effort energetic help defense with rapid recovery. Parker isn't a great passer in the lane on the move and so if you collapse on him hard you can force turnovers or at least make him dish the ball out in way that will allow you to recover and contest the shot. The Suns did this to some success in games 4 and 5.

And at the end of the day, you want Oberto, KT, Bowen, Finely and Horry taking those shots. Even if they are making them stick with it but if you work hard enough you can recover and disrupt their rhythm. Nash was even able close out on Bowen fast enough to force him to put it down and drive a few times. That didn't go so well for Bruce. And Nash isn't all that fast anymore.

Beating the Spurs D

First off just expect a few things to be different against the Spurs in the playoffs. 

You are not going to score your average. They are going to clutch, grab, flop, trip and kick and they are going to get away with it. Nash comes out of these series like he's been kicked by a field full of 8 year olds in cleats and his arms are scratched and mauled as well. In the lane Duncan never gets called for a foul and always is in exactly the right place. If your game plan is attacking the rim with your bigs - forget it.

Draw their bigs as far out as possible and post up your 3. We all saw how well this worked with Diaw - he really is a very good post player - and Peja can do the same thing. When the Spurs put Bowen on Paul that will leave a much lesser defender on Peja, Pargo or Wells. Take advantage of that.

I am not sure if the Hornets are prepared for this and clearly the Spurs understand that the key to stopping the Hornets is stopping Paul. They knew this about Nash and shut him down as well as any team ever did. Bowen will saddle up on CP3 and ride him hard. The more the hive can run the offense through someone other then Paul the better. It will loosen things up and force Bowen to move around a bit.

At a minimum Paul will need to make great passes out of the lane b/c the Spurs will collapse and contest everything he's trying to do. Spread the floor and hit the open three's if you can get them. But don't expect many. Their help D is the best anywhere. Not only do they work hard they are very smart about which guy helps and when and how they rotate to cover behind that. It really is the most beautiful part of Spurs basketball. Not that that's saying much.

Otherwise, West should be able to do well against Kurt Thomas away from the rim. Take and make open jump shots and he will have to play up tight and he can't stay in front of West that way. Oberto either. But those guys are tough and smart and you have to beat them.

They really are old

The Spurs go deep but its kind of a mirage. Their big three still play a TON of minutes and they can be wore down. Especially if you can avoid blowouts and have a run of games that are only one day apart. Make them work for 48 minutes even in a loss and it will pay off. Manu particularlly is looking worn and Duncan will tire as well. Run hard early in the game and especially right out of the half and you might just take their legs.

Good luck

You are going to need it. Forget everything you saw from the Spurs in the regular season. I have never seen a team turn it on like these guys do. They are smart and tough and they don't beat themselves. You have to want it and play hard every second of every game. And if you do that - perhaps you can explain to the Suns how you managed.

 

 

 

 

 

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Thoughts on CP3

First,

He can defend Parker. A huge plus over the Suns’ PG. I don’t know that the Hornets match up so well against Manu and TD, but if they can make TD work for his points and keep his shooting percentage low, this is a huge advantage. Parker will still get his, but CP3 can slow him down and come up with some good steals, deflections, etc.

Second,

No one can defend him. The only chance the Sp*rs have at defending him is to unleash Bowen’s ninja moves. If the refs “let them play” Paul may be in trouble. If anyone else guards Paul, he’ll shred the Spurs. If Bowen is required to play defense with his feet instead of with his judo-chops, he’s going to put up big numbers. When the Spurs start doubling him harder and making him work more, he’s going to need his role players to step up.

I don’t know about his supporting cast—in particular, his supporting backcourt. If they fade away and he is forced to create more than 50% of the scoring (I heard a stat watching the Hornets against the Celtics that he was responsible for 49% of the hoops, either through assists or makes), the Hornets are in bad shape.

Mmmmm ... Guinness

by JSun on May 1, 2008 10:59 PM MDT   0 recs

Chris Paul

is not a good defender. He does create turnovers, but, like Allen Iverson, he’s not a very good on-the-ball defender.

Is he better than Nash? Sure. Most guards are. Can he defend Parker? No, especially since he is so awful at handling screens that the Hornets’ big men will carry most of the responsibility on Pick and Roll plays.

That said, though Parker should have his way with Paul, Paul will make up for some of this by creating turnovers, which Nash (and really the Suns) doesn’t do.

As far as TD goes, Tyson Chandler can guard him about as well as anyone not named Diop, which is to say not that well. He’s Tim Duncan.

Decision '08: Batum or Alexander

by rosewood on May 2, 2008 10:30 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Have to Disagree A Little

He’s not a “defensive stopper” or anything but he is good.

The games I’ve seen him in, he’s done well. You are correct that he has some weaknesses, but he’s as good as a defensive PG one could hope for given his offensive abilitiies.

He does over-react a bit on the ball, but if he puts his mind to it he can settle down. And he doesn’t overreact that much (no LB).

I’m not saying he’s going to hold Parker to 8 points a game or anything, but if Parker is at 20 and 5 (and I think he can do it), Paul will likely be higher and will win that match-up.

Mmmmm ... Guinness

by JSun on May 2, 2008 10:41 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Again

to me these matchups are over rated. Its not about Paul on Parker or the inverse. It about team defense.

by Phoenix Stan on May 2, 2008 10:50 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

This is just not true

Chris Paul can create turnovers but as an on the ball defender he’s really not that good (yet). Opposing PGs shoot an astonishing 52% eFG when he’s on the floor. That’s one of the worst numbers for a starter in the league. Second, the Hornets defensive +/- is much better when he’s off the floor.

Of course, he’s such a ridiculous offensive player that it doesn’t matter. But against playoff Tony (which as we learned is much different from regular season Tony), he individually doesn’t have a great shot.

I would agree with Stan though. It’s really more about team defense and the Hornets are a good defensive team. Which is why I think they’ll win.

Decision '08: Batum or Alexander

by rosewood on May 2, 2008 11:45 AM MDT to parent up   1 recs

Unfortunately

I think the Spurs will win b/c they are a better team defensive team and of course more experienced. They will prevent Paul from killing them and Duncan and KT will handle West.

And in the end – as we saw – their experience in these situations will be the difference

by Phoenix Stan on May 2, 2008 11:51 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Paul's Defensive +/-

I read something on TrueHoop a few weeks ago about his defensive +/- being too high. The justification given for that by a Hornets blog was that the Hornets strategy is to bring in a very defensive 2nd unit to replace the first unit. As a result, the defensive +/- of the starters is bad as a result of the high quality defenders coming off the bench for CP3. I’m not sure how true it is, but it was the justification given by a Hornets fan. Also, where can I find the opposing eFG% info?

by RealTangiblesGuy on May 2, 2008 11:51 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

82games

has the opp PG eFG% if you dig through individual player profiles.

As far as +/- goes, the guy who wrote that post (which was in response to another hornets blog that said the opposite) makes a solid argument but it’s not entirely convincing since he a) largely disregards the eFG% number and b) disregarded that the Paul’s +/- was by far the worst of the starters, which doesn’t contradict but stifles his argument quite a bit in light of the eFG% numbers.

It’s not a bad argument, but I think it’s weaker than he realizes and even he only comes to the conclusion that Paul is average.

Decision '08: Batum or Alexander

by rosewood on May 2, 2008 12:31 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't know about all that

You guys are clearly smarter then me and make great points….I do know that I saw Paul play some excellent D against Nash and the steals that I some him get were b/c of great hands and anticipation of the bounce pass that Nash likes to use.

I did not see him gamble to get his steals like AI does. Granted, I have not watched him play all that much but will certainly be watching him now!

by Phoenix Stan on May 2, 2008 12:47 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Plus/Minus

Wasn’t it you that showed me (a few months back) that the +/- as to a single player is not a very good stat? Meaning, that its really only a useful indicator if there are groups of players?

This is also the shooting percentage when the opposing PG is on the floor, right? Does he always guard the opposing PG? Even if he did, is the opposing PG’s shooting percentage the only indicator of good defense. If the other PG shoots 4 of 6 and only has a handfuls of assists, isn’t that good defense, even though he’s shooting at 67%? Anyone can get loose occassionaly.

You might be right, but I think the analysis would need to be rounded out with some further numbers.

Also, yeah, the defensive second unit stuff, too.

Mmmmm ... Guinness

by JSun on May 2, 2008 1:42 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

I was talking about

unadjusted +/-, which is a very stupid statistic. It’s the one you see on ESPN and NBA.com. This is adjusted, which is much better if still imperfect.

Sure a player shooting 4 of 6 would not be terrible, but over a course of a season, such a player would not have much of an effect. The larger point here is, of course, that though a PG doesn’t always guard the other PGs, it should standout that your PG has one of the worst, (not average, not kind of bad, but terrible) opp PG eFG% when he’s on the floor. When you add that to the fact that of all your starters, he has the worst +/- defense, it speaks to a bad trend.

I don’t think it necessarily states the case with precise accuracy-Paul plays away from his assignment a lot, which is how he accumulates steals-but I think generally you can say that a good defender would not have both numbers be so low.

Decision '08: Batum or Alexander

by rosewood on May 2, 2008 2:10 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

4 of 6

What I’m talking about is an effective player going 4 of 6—not just a schmuck. Of course, it’s all hypothetical.

I’ve watched the guy about a dozen times or so over this season. He looks like a good defender to me.

Anyway, I’ll guess we’ll have to watch.

Mmmmm ... Guinness

by JSun on May 2, 2008 2:17 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Lakers fan here!

Alright. I know I’m on forbidden territory here at a Suns blog, but I have a question which I feel is valid.

Who would all you Suns fans rather see win in the Western Conference Finals? The Spurs or Lakers?

It seems increasingly more likely that match up will happen. So, which is the lesser of two evils in the eyes of a Suns fan?

by Davyjonze on May 2, 2008 1:22 AM MDT   0 recs

Spurs

I’d have the Spurs win. I can’t stand the Fakers.

by RealTangiblesGuy on May 2, 2008 2:59 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Since none of the above is an option

in your question – I would normally go with the Spurs too b/c my hate for the Lakers is higher.

However, as a basketball fan, I would actually much perfer to see the Lakers.

Its funny actually – I hate the Lakers as a long time rival but actually like the way they play ball. With the Spurs its the opposite. I don’t get much enjoyment out of watching them play (especially us) but don’t have the same engrained hatred…although its growing each year.

by Phoenix Stan on May 2, 2008 8:43 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Agree completely

Spurs – like the players, hate the ball
Lakers – hate the players, love the ball

Hornets – I want to love you!

Wondering what the heck to do next with my empty summer

by ZonaFlash on May 2, 2008 9:43 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Nope

I don’t even hate the players on the Lakers. I am NOT a Kobe hater and how can you hate Gasol or Odom or Fisher?

I just hate THE LAKERS for repeatedly crushing the hopes of a young Suns fan….and as a Phoencian I hate L.A. for all the crap they send our way from smog, to traffic, to Lakers fan imigrants.

I think we need a border wall on the Colorado River…

by Phoenix Stan on May 2, 2008 9:51 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

The Hornets

Mmmmm ... Guinness

by JSun on May 2, 2008 10:23 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

From a Spurs fan

Maybe I am not welcome here, but I started enjoying the writing style and perspectives here at BSoTS during the 1st round series, so I might stick around a while if that’s ok.

I think you made some really good points, but I think the Spurs will play Paul differently than you propose when you said they will “collapse and contest everything he [Paul] is trying to do.” I could very well see the Spurs play Paul straight up, with Bowen and Parker switching off, and let him beat them as a jump shooter. Paul is a good shooter, but nothing like Nash, and if he is taking jump shots, that means that he is not creating easy buckets for West and Chandler, nor is he giving stoj, stoik, ummm Peja open 3s.

by pollackj on May 2, 2008 1:56 AM MDT   0 recs

The more, the merrier.

We’re like the platinum version of the clippers now – if ya can’t win, and ya refuse to join em, then you better try and have some fun.

Wondering what the heck to do next with my empty summer

by ZonaFlash on May 2, 2008 6:49 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

To stop Paul

in the lane as he comes off screens is pretty much just like we faced trying to stop Parker. Granted, the Spurs front line is much better defensively then ours but still, when Paul and TC run the high pick and roll you now have Duncan out away from the rim and Paul driving by him either on the switch or with Parker or Bowen trailing. They can try and go under the screen but the Hornets will adjust by moving the p/r initiation in closer and leaving Paul an open 15ft which he can and will make.

What the Spurs do very well is rotate and make you move the ball to beat them. I am betting that they are betting that they can handle West in the paint, battle TC on the boards and get the ball out of Paul’s hands as much as possible.

by Phoenix Stan on May 2, 2008 8:49 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Peja's still a choker

I wouldn’t mind seeing reincarnated Peja take on the reincarnated Flakers. Maybe he can actually get past the lakers this time?

Sacto, a great great team that just couldn’t get past a greater team.

Wondering what the heck to do next with my empty summer

by ZonaFlash on May 2, 2008 6:51 AM MDT   0 recs

You need a passing 2, that's all

The way the Nash led Mavs overcame the Kings was with Nick Van E. While Christie covered Nash, the ball just went to Nick, who went to town on Mike Bibby.

Of course, as well as being one of the great passers of all time, Steve is also one of the great shooters of all time, if a little streaky. So as Christie used to switch off Nash to help, Steve would get the ball back and boom.

If you want to beat the Spurs, get yourself a backline where both players can pass, both can shoot, and where they’re not afraid to share the ball or the offensive load.
Then attack the Spurs with your frontline, in the post/paint, where they’re light.

"True glory consists of doing what deserves to be written, and writing what deserves to be read".

by Pliny the Elder on May 2, 2008 2:18 PM MDT   0 recs

I like the idea...

but players who can pass, shoot, and be unselfish are pretty rare…especially two of them.

by RealTangiblesGuy on May 2, 2008 2:48 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

What if...

NO loses? Are we gonna adopt a second team or throw in the towel?

by RealTangiblesGuy on May 2, 2008 2:49 PM MDT   0 recs

Celtics

Any good Suns fan roots for the Celtics because of the LA-Boston rivalry. I’m good with the team that Shawn Marion-almost-but-should-have-played-for beating anyone from the West.

Mmmmm ... Guinness

by JSun on May 2, 2008 2:59 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Celtics

just choked away game 6. Goodness.

by RealTangiblesGuy on May 3, 2008 1:56 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

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