Re-load or rebuild?
Now that Mike D is going to the Knicks, I'm wondering if perhaps we should just start from scratch. The current team was built to beat the Spurs, and to do so primarily with offense. Unfortunately, the team STILL couldn't beat the Spurs, and the Spurs (right now, anyway) aren't looking like the team of the future in any case.
So I'm wondering...out loud; I don't have any answers...whether fans believe that the Suns with a new coach and some minor personnel changes can be a contender in the next two years...or whether it's time to start over, to start building a much younger team, stockpiling draft picks, and so on.
NOTE: I know that some will say, "Well, there's no way we're getting rid of Shaq or Nash...the former because of his contract, the latter because he's beloved, and because he's the straw that stirs the drink on this team."
Okay, but that doesn't mean you can't start rebuilding anyway. Start assembling the core of the team that you want three years from now, when both Nash and Shaq will almost certainly be gone.
[Note by Phoenix Stan, 05/15/08 8:01 AM PDT ]
Over the last few days of coaching conundrums, this is the question I keep coming back to so I am "stealing" Beatcal's post to have some more conversation on the topic.
We've heard Sarver and Kerr both claim that the Sun's window is still open and that the plan is to win now. One would assume that means Nash, Amare, Shaq, Diaw, Bell, LB and Hill are all coming back.
I am still on the fence. I can definitely see the appeal of moving our movable pieces while they are most movable. That means Nash who's trade value depreciates each year; LB who's production / salary is fantastic; and maybe Diaw who despite his higher salary and inconsistency is a very talented player. Bell would also be a movable piece. Amare is untouchable and Shaq is unmovable.
I just don't see what you can get back that's going to move the team from what will likely be a 50 win, 3 to 6 seed team next year to a top number 1 contender - unless you can pry LeBron out of Cleveland's cold dead hands.
One move I don't like is the idea of Barbosa and the Suns' 15th pick for a 3 - 7 pick. If you look at LB's current production value, there's NO WAY a rookie beyond the top 2 or 3 is going to come in and match what he brings sooner then two or three years.
I still think that LB's value alone is enough to get back a legit backup PG or a backup Center which are our two biggest needs. A move like that is big but not a "blow it up" trade.
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Comments
2010-2011
I pretty much covered this in a post about two weeks ago.
http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2008/4/30/470723/the-bright-side-2010-2011
Basically: We should just keep on what we’re doing except we need to be using not selling our draft picks. We have too many difficult contracts and, really, too good of a core to break up. After the 2009/2010 season, we’ll have a ton of cap space and the free agent crop is ridiculous.
If a trade presents itself that will let us get back in the 2010 draft at a reasonable price that would likely be a fine idea. But unless we’re getting youth in return, Amare, Diaw, and LB should be off-limits as far as trading is concerned.
There’s more detail in my other post.
Sven to Benfica! Please, please, please!
by rosewood on May 11, 2008 7:10 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
agree
I would agree with this strategy, except for entertaining offers for Diaw, as he has been as inconsistent as it comes. The right player could help the Suns more, even a veteran, as long as his contract coincides with Shaq/Nash coming off the books.
by tkired on May 15, 2008 11:26 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Indeed you did
Thanks. I read the original post. It was thoughtful, and even encouraging. We may not have to spend years in the wilderness…
by beatcal on May 12, 2008 12:08 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
This is the last year...
...for this squad. I think the team in its current state has one more bullet left in it. That said, they need either a cheap veteran bench, or something more developable than Piatkowski and Marks. I would hope that whoever the coach ends up being makes a concerted effort to either get Strawberry and Tucker game ready or demands some players who are.
by Mike Lisboa on May 15, 2008 9:47 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Should we trade for backups?
Anthony Carter, Tyrone Lue, Anthony Johnson, Chris Quinn, Juan Jose Barea, Roger Mason, Carlos Arroyo, Steve Blake, Jeff McInnis, Lindsey Hunter, Chris Duhon, Sam Cassell, Dan Dickau.
If we really need another PG all of these players are available as free agents. I’d hate to see us lose LB when there are so many option available for cheap.
Sven to Benfica! Please, please, please!
by rosewood on May 15, 2008 10:14 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Cheap enough?
I am thinking that we will need to free up cap space to get one of these guys even at around $2m/yr. And frankly none of those names really appeal except maybe Barea who showed some nice flashes in the 10 minutes of floor time I saw from him :) and Dickau who I always thought would be a great backup for Steve.
So my thinking is that you have to free up LB’s $5m to get a backup PG and Center and stay near the cap. The possibilities are endless and perhaps we could get a pick or two as well but that’s my general thinking.
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Phoenix Stan on May 15, 2008 10:32 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Free agents?
Good points.
How much would these guys cost? I mean, the Suns can drop a few million with Marks and Pike and Skinner and such.
Mmmmm ... Guinness
by JSun on May 15, 2008 10:33 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's my thinking
Guys like Blake, Duhon, and Arroyo are probably out of our price range, but Pike/Skinner/Marks add up to 3.3M that could be used more wisely on all of the other PGs up there who would come in under 2M if not 1M. There’s also a lot of journeyman bigs available as well.
Also: cap space is not an issue because we’ve had a mid-level exception available for lord knows how long. Now we don’t have to/would not use it all, but if we let go of P/S/M we’ll have money freed to counter the luxury tax hit.
I just don’t see the point in trading LB for a backup PG, since a) he’s very, very productive b) he’s young and c) we’d then need a backup SG. Unless we can also get all of that back in return (production, youth, SG) then it seems to me we’re treading water rather than improving.
If you can turn P/M/S$ into actual contribution, however, that’s a real gain.
Another greater question is: What about Gordan?
Sven to Benfica! Please, please, please!
by rosewood on May 15, 2008 10:55 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
A bit more about the Cap
We’re irrevocably past the cap. We’re only talking about degrees of luxury tax hits. The tax threshold will rise like it does every year and that will give us some money back, but the rest will have to come in exchange for our less productive vets unless Sarver is feeling generous.
Sven to Benfica! Please, please, please!
by rosewood on May 15, 2008 11:00 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gordan
How much do you want to bet that he tries to pull a Tim Thomas? I don’t know how much he’s entitled to (i.e., does he get a verteran minimum?), but don’t you think he tries to go for something over $4M a year?
If he’d stay around, though, for $2-3M the Suns do have a backup SG that can play defense. Then, trading LB and #15 isn’t such a horrible idea.
LB is a great producer for the money, but I do not see him getting any better. Especially without Dan D holding his hand. Why not sell high? (Kind of like the D’Backs did with Valverde last off-season)
Mmmmm ... Guinness
by JSun on May 15, 2008 11:09 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exceptions??
Go over this again. I thought the exceptions were only useful to get around the “salary within 125% rule” and/or the salary “cap”? Not for getting around the luxury tax.
Mmmmm ... Guinness
by JSun on May 15, 2008 11:10 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
125%
is the trade number for trades where one or both teams are past the cap.
Exceptions like the bi-annual exception and the mid-level exception are always available to exceed the cap by however much you can within the exception.
So for this past season, the cap was like 55M, the luxury tax threshold was 68Mish, and the mid-level was like 5.5 or 5.3M. So once you’re past the cap, you can use all or part of that exception to sign a player. But if that salary you used exceeds the LT threshold, you pay LT on it. It’s a cap thing not a LT thing.
Hill’s another example. We were way beyond the cap when we signed him last year, but we used the bi-annual exception to nab him. But because it’s biannual we can’t use it this year.
So we do have about 5.5M to burn on a free agent, but we’d have to lose salary else where unless Sarver is cool with the LT hit. Pike and Marks are the most obvious options.
Sven to Benfica! Please, please, please!
by rosewood on May 15, 2008 11:29 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trade exception
We’re also still sitting on a 8M dollar trade exception which doesn’t expire until July 1 or 3.
So theoretically we don’t have to worry about the 125% rule and could trade Barbosa for a player worth up to 8M more dollars than him. But I doubt we’re doing that. The point of the exception was to cut salary not add it.
Sven to Benfica! Please, please, please!
by rosewood on May 15, 2008 11:33 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know I'm a bit obsessed with the Spurs...
...but it’s two years in a row that LB has had a lousy series against them. Couple that with his defensive liabilities (his adjusted plus/minus is negative), and I wouldn’t shed a tear to see him go.
by beatcal on May 15, 2008 10:58 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
+/-
Amare also has nearly the same negative adjusted +/- (.147 vs. -.173), and I don’t think we’re letting him go. I would guess the problem here is that a great number of LB’s minutes coincide with Nash’s absence, which represents one of the core “skewered-sample” problems with adj. +/ (even Rosenbaum admits this).
For another take, LB had a win score per minute of .145 which is a very solid number. Both stats are imperfect, especially in a case like this where they’re contrary to one another.
The point here is that I’m not absolutely against trading LB, but it would take a relatively impressive offer to match his value, since a) he’s got a good contract b) he’s very productive c) he’s young and d) we have no one to take his place. If we can manage to match that (through draft and trade), then great. But we’d have to talk about what offers would work.
Sven to Benfica! Please, please, please!
by rosewood on May 15, 2008 11:21 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
LB
Personally, i think he should only be traded for a young big, or a package that is obviously worth more than him.
by tkired on May 15, 2008 11:30 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
that'd be great
I would do it, too. I think it’s unlikely, though. There seems to be an unwritten rule in the NBA where teams never really seem to trade small for big.
by KJ7 on May 15, 2008 1:20 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
could happen
package him with someone, and maybe you could snag a Nene. Although Denver needs a pg, not another sg. the right trade just has to come along. Personally I would love to see underutilized Paul Millsap come here, even though undersized. He can d-up, rebound like crazy, and has solid offensive skills. Could also involve a part of a bigger package, as one for one would not work.
by tkired on May 18, 2008 5:27 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why Not Q?
If D’Antoni is interested in LB and/or Doris, why not go after Q? He had a decent year for the Suns, once. He disappeared in the playoffs, but that tends to happen the first time you get on that stage.
How was he in NY? Consistently injured, I know, but, hey, he was playing for Isaiah so who cares?
I didn’t pay much attention to him over the last couple of years. Has anyone?
Mmmmm ... Guinness
by JSun on May 15, 2008 1:24 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Q
once a shooter is a choker in the POs, they are likely always a choker.
The suns trade those guys fast.
Wondering what the skip-2-my-loo to do next with my empty summer
by ZonaFlash on May 21, 2008 2:13 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
just like Eddie House. Some guys (Diaw?) show up in big games and some guys (Barbosa) don’t.
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Phoenix Stan on May 21, 2008 11:38 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Q
He’s been underperforming, and out of shape. I think he best fits D’antoni’d system, so why would you want him back?
by tkired on May 18, 2008 4:59 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't know why Suns would want him
Just a question. I haven’t been paying attention
Mmmmm ... Guinness
by JSun on May 19, 2008 10:34 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Q in PHX?
Actually, outside of the obscene contract, not much has gone right for Q in his professional life. He was signed by the Suns to play the big guard, post up, and such. But D’A stuck him out at the 3 point line. There he caught fire, but hasn’t been able to duplicate that success. Because of Nash, most of his 3 pointers were like practice he was so wide open. He has not gotten those open looks with the Knicks. Then of course there is the injured back, and the trade from the penthouse to the outhouse. Then his brother gets killed. He misses time, and never gets untracked.
My main point is I don’t think anyone has used Q right, other than that last year with the Paper Clips. So it is difficult to say if we could use him or not. You can be sure MikeD won’t let him go if he is healthy and can be used in his 2005 role. I think he would be useful (if healthy) in his 2004 Clipper role. How many 2 guards can handle him in the post up? But I would not want any part of that contract. I think Alando Tucker can help us more.
April 29, 2008 Total Eclipse of the Sun. Is the sky falling?
by Hawk42 on May 20, 2008 12:09 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not much right in his personal life either since he and Brandi broke off...
I thought we signed Q for her anyway.
Wondering what the skip-2-my-loo to do next with my empty summer
by ZonaFlash on May 21, 2008 11:41 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
maybe the draft
will yield a useful big man, however, which leaves youngish pg as a need. If Ford wouldnt mind sucking it up coming off the bench to eventually replace nash, and his injury concerns are not too high, he could be gotten for a barbosa or diaw centered deal, imo.
by tkired on May 18, 2008 5:30 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Not Ford
His injury concerns will always be high. He will always be one hard off balance hit away from having his career ended. I’ve had similar thoughts since I love his game, and if he could accept the back up role behind Nash he could run a really effective second unit. Also he’s deadly in the picknroll in a completely different way than Nash, forcing teams to radically alter their approach to the picknroll midquarter. It’s a nice though but… such a big risk.
by SBSunsfan on May 21, 2008 9:51 PM MDT reply actions 1 recs
Very well said
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Phoenix Stan on May 22, 2008 10:38 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

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