2008 Draft - Mocking the Vote
Mocking the Vote
The 2008 SBN Mock Draft is set to begin on Monday, June 16th. This is the chance for all of you armchair GM's to put your keyboard where your mouth is and show the pro's who's boss.
The host for the Mock Draft is Matt at Ridiculous Upside. So go there to keep tabs on things until the Suns pick comes up.
The rules are simple. No trades.
Here's the full draft schedule and picks so far:
Monday:
1. Blog-A-Bull - Derrick Rose
2. Peninsula is Mightier - Michael Beasley
3. Canis Hoopus - OJ Mayo
4. (Working on the Sonics rep) - Eric Gordon
5. 3 Shades of Blue - Kevin Love
6. Posting and Toasting - Russell Westbrook (losers! - sez ZonaFlash)
Tuesday7.ClipsNation - Jerryd Bayless
8. BrewHoop 10:30AM - Anthony Randolph
9. Queen City Hoops 1PM - Joe Alexander (dang!)
10. Nets Daily 3:30PM - Brook Lopez
11. Indy Cornrows - DJ Augustin
12. Sacramento Kings- Sactown Royalty: Marreese Speights
Wednesday
13. Blazers Edge 8:00AM
14. Golden State of Mind 10:30AM
15. Bright Side of the Sun 1PM
16. (working on it) 3:30PM
17. (sorting out between the bazillion good Raptors blogs) 6PM
18. Bullets Forever 8:30PM
Thursday
19. Waiting For Next Year 8AM
20. PickAxe and Roll 10:30 AM
21. Nets Daily 1PM
22. 3rd Quarter Collapse 3:30PM
23. SLC Dunk 6PM
24. (Sonics again, working on it) 8:30PM
Friday:
25. The Dream Shake 8AM
26. Pounding The Rock (?) 10:30AM
27. At The Hive 1PM
28. 3 Shades of Blue 3:30PM
29. already extended offers to the two you'd expect me to extend offers to. 6PM
30. Green Bandwagon 8:30PM
For a quick recap of the final draft order go here and for a handy compulation of early mock draft speculation you can check this out from the T-Wolves blog (and if anyone has this draft thing down its the T-wolves fans).
Here's the names that currently projected around the 15th slot (in no particular order):
| Darrell Arthur PF Age: 20, 6'9", 215 lbs. Kansas, Sophomore |
D.J. Augustin PG Age: 20, 5'11", 175 lbs. Texas, Sophomore |
| Joe Alexander SF/PF Age: 21, 6'8", 230 lbs. West Virginia, Junior |
Nicolas Batum SF Age: 19, 6'8", 214 lbs. Le Mans Sarthe Basket, |
| Donte Greene SF/PF Age: 20, 6'10", 220 lbs. Syracuse, Freshman |
Kosta Koufos C Age: 19, 7'1", 245 lbs. Ohio State, Freshman |
| Chase Budinger SG/SF Age: 20, 6'7", 190 lbs. Arizona, Sophomore |
Russell Westbrook PG/SG Age: 19, 6'3", 187 lbs. UCLA, Sophomore |
| JaVale McGee C 20 years old; 7'0"; 237 lbs. Nevada, Sophomore |
Marreese Speights PF/C 20 years old; 6'10"; 245 lbs. Florida, Sophomore |
| Brandon Rush SG/SF 22 years old; 6'7"; 211 lbs. Kansas, Junior |
DeAndre Jordan C 19 years old; 7'0"; 260 lbs. Texas A&M, Freshman |
| Robin Lopez PF/C 20 years old; 7'0"; 255 lbs. Stanford, Sophomore |
Anthony Randolph SF/PF 18 years old; 6'11"; 220 lbs. LSU, Freshman |
While we have all been glued to the drama that is the NBA in June, the Suns have been playing the role of kids in the candy store as they worked out players in advance of the upcoming draft. You can catch some video, interviews and the like at the ever awesome suns.com site.
So far, the Suns have had in some potential PG's DJ Augustin and Mario Chalmers and some interesting bigs such as Javale McGee, Nathan Jawai, Marreese Speights and Robin Lopez (who looks exactly like Andy Verajao in all ways imaginable).
Today Joe Alexander, Chase Buddinger and a few others are scheduled .
I have to tip my hat to all of you that can make any sense out of this. I watch these guys in video clips and interviews, read all the little recaps and occasionally listen to their interviews and I am left feeling I would like 8 out of 10 of the guys I am seeing. They all seem so great at this stage in the process until next season when you put them on the court and ask them to score against Tim Duncan or stop Monta Ellis.
To sit on the sidelines of this process and make any sense at all about what separates the upside potential of JaVale McGee from the court IQ of Robin Lopez is beyond me.
The more I try and sort this all out, the more appreciation I have for the incredible task guys like Dave Griffin are faced with. You get one pick in this high stakes game and you are faced with a tremendous amount of information that we fans will never see. The numbers, The skill set. The intangibles. The fit.
I have hired a lot of people for a lot of jobs but I am glad the stakes were never this high.
What we fans do know is our team and our needs and we know some numbers. And from that and reading between the lines of what Griffin said in his interviews, here's what I am willing to predict right now:
- The Suns will pick someone and not sell or trade the pick away. I know - I am really out there on this one given that Kerr literally guaranteed as much.
- The Suns will pick a big at the 15th spot. They seem impressed with several including McGee and Lopez and seem inclined to believe that you aren't going to get an NBA backup PG as a rookie at the 15th spot. I agree (as if that matters)
- They feel a need at the 3 which means that they aren't set on the idea of Diaw starting there, with Hill and possibly Giricek backing him up. Still, its hard to imagine that they will pick a wing player this year over a backup center which they so desperately need. Unless perhaps Joe Alexander falls to 15 because he apparently floats above the guys that walk on water.
- Of course, its also worth noting that both Chad Ford and the experts at Draft Express have the Suns picking Brandon Rush with the 15th. What do those guys know that I don't? Pretty much everything including I imagine that picking Rush makes Tucker very expendable.
- Based on the guys the Suns are looking at, I wouldn't be surprised if they end up with another pick late in the first or early in the second round. Perhaps if the Suns do take Rush or Joe-A (how's that for a nickname!) then they package their 2nd round pick (the 18th) with Tucker and try and get another 1st rounder. If it happens, just remember you heard it here first. If it doesn't - you didn't hear it anywhere so what's the difference...
- You don't get the sense that they are looking at top 10 guys which would seem to imply that they have no thoughts of trying to move up. Then again, you had no real thoughts they would trade Marion for Shaq until they did. That's how wild and crazy these guys are.
1 recs |
77 comments
Comments
McGee and Speights?
I think JaVale McGee and Mareese Speights both need to be here as representative big men.
I’ve said it before though: Joe Alexander. The NYTimes profile sold me.
Sven to Benfica! Please, please, please!
by rosewood on May 21, 2008 4:53 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Done
I was just reading about McGee….seems to be more of a project then the Suns can afford
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Phoenix Stan on May 21, 2008 5:23 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
I’m not too hip with McGee either but he is in the conversation and is a center.
As you said though, this board is going to change a lot in the next few weeks. I mean, Joe Alexander was at 23 on nbadraft.net a few weeks ago. Now he’s at 8. Fun.
Also: it’s probably a little early and deserves a later independent post, but we shouldn’t be too afraid to talk about the second round either.
Sven to Benfica! Please, please, please!
by rosewood on May 21, 2008 5:33 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dang!
Rosewood beat me to it! I’m not necessarily in love with McGee, but he’s a big man who can run. May not be such an issue now that D’anny Boy is with the Knicks, but I was ready to pencil him in as a Sun before the recent unpleasantness.
by Mike Lisboa on May 21, 2008 9:19 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm afraid to talk about the second round
too many variables!
Wondering what the skip-2-my-loo to do next with my empty summer
by ZonaFlash on Jun 13, 2008 11:03 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
What about Wstbrook?
He’s gone though a program that values defense at UCLA, thrived in the open court… I’m more convinced of his PG instincts than DJ’s even though I love DJ’s energy & D… also he is mature and ready to contribute in a back up role very soon if not immediately… that’s what I think anyway.
by SBSunsfan on May 21, 2008 8:41 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
So...
do you guys think we need a center or a pg with this pick? Also do you guys think any deals will be made by the Suns to move up this draft or add another pick?
What say you all?
"Troops in desperate straights know no fear. Where there is no escape, they stand firm; When they have entered deep, they persist; When they see no hope, they fight." Sun Tzu The Art of War
by Turambar on May 21, 2008 10:10 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
No PG
Unless Westbrook falls, I just don’t think there will be a PG worth the 15th compared to all the C/SF talent.
So if we’re going to draft for need, then I’d say C.
I’m really for the Suns trying to aggressively move up in the 2nd round if Bill Walker, Joey Dorsey, Nathan Jawai, Richard Hendrix, or JR Giddens are still available. But I don’t know how hard it is to move up in the 2nd.
Sven to Benfica! Please, please, please!
by rosewood on May 21, 2008 10:59 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed on the PG
Yeah I gotta say that getting a good pg now would be better than a C. Of course it all depends on the direction the new coach wants to move in.
As far as other moves go I’m curious to know whether or not the Suns can land any kind of deal that would make this team better. Such as (hypothetically) doing a trade for Artest with LB. Would that even make us better, and would “Crazy Pills” ruin the team? Who knows, but I’m willing to try anything to get this team better.
Overall though there are alot of options this summer. The only thing i’m convinced the Suns shouldnt do is trade there pick, unless they could somehow move up.
"Troops in desperate straights know no fear. Where there is no escape, they stand firm; When they have entered deep, they persist; When they see no hope, they fight." Sun Tzu The Art of War
by Turambar on May 21, 2008 11:17 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
So say we all
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Phoenix Stan on May 22, 2008 9:05 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sarver will take the cash and run
Sarver will sell the pick, just l;ike he has the last five.
by TheTruthSquad on May 21, 2008 11:47 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Nah
He’s going to put that money into a Top Secret Suns cloning project. It shall create the perfect Suns player that shall lead us to glory. Combining Nash, STAT, Alvan Adams, Paul Westphal, Trix and other Suns greats into a 7’5” 350lb of pure muscle basketball god. Only then shall our work toward glory begin.
Of course that’s just a bunch of BS, but it sure sounds cool.
"Troops in desperate straights know no fear. Where there is no escape, they stand firm; When they have entered deep, they persist; When they see no hope, they fight." Sun Tzu The Art of War
by Turambar on May 22, 2008 12:14 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually not.
All indicators point to the selling picks as D’Antoni’s preference. That has changed since Kerr arrived. We kept two picks and we’re likely to keep this one.
Besides, we’re over the luxury tax, so selling picks cannot be criticized simply as money-grubbing, but a tough choice.
And it wasn’t our team that gave away Leandro Barbosa AND Luis Scola for money. Good job there.
Wondering what the skip-2-my-loo to do next with my empty summer
by ZonaFlash on May 24, 2008 4:08 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
just not batum
workout warrior, his basketball iq is not so good. high risk for a bust in my opinion. Would like to see chase or augustin, or a big, i dunno which big is which at this range in the draft though
by tkired on May 22, 2008 4:02 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Arthur
would be great if he were available. He is big/strong enough that he can guard the center position leaving Amare to play Power Forward. And he is just the type of athlete that can play the Phoenix style whatever that might turn out to be…..
by njnick on May 22, 2008 8:23 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Arthur's great
and he is a pretty good defender, but he doesn’t have the size to play the 5, I don’t think. He’s only 6’9” like 220. He’s a pure PF.
Maybe if he bulks up considerably, but he’s not even really considered especially strong at the college level. He’s just very athletic.
Sven to Benfica! Please, please, please!
by rosewood on May 22, 2008 9:18 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Arthur
I would rather have our next power forward than a project center or an under 6 foot point guard. remember, Amare will need another surgery in a few years.
April 29, 2008 Total Eclipse of the Sun. Is the sky falling?
by Hawk42 on May 22, 2008 11:50 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think PF...
is the position we need the least right now. Amare is enough of a project (defensively) still at the PF position that we don’t need another. I would like to get a center in the first round more than a PG, just because I have more faith in Nash holding up over the next couple seasons than I do Shaq.
by brian13 on May 22, 2008 1:04 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
PF or C
But what if there isn’t one? Would you like Bill Wennington, or Chris Bosh?
April 29, 2008 Total Eclipse of the Sun. Is the sky falling?
by Hawk42 on May 22, 2008 3:55 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Steve Kerr..
would obviously like Bill Wennington. How could you not want him after seeing this?
If there was no center available, i’d want us to draft a PG. I don’t think we need a Chris Bosh when we already have an Amare Stoudemire.
by brian13 on May 23, 2008 12:45 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Draft Geek!
Sven to Benfica! Please, please, please!
by rosewood on May 22, 2008 11:46 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
does anybody think Donte Greene
could be a Shawn Marion-type player? I’ve never seen him play but if his defense is good enough he looks like the athlete we need to cover some of those SFs and dunk the ball with authority
At least he's better than Esteban Yan.
by jacksonian on May 22, 2008 1:49 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
This could be the draft....
That Sarver doesn’t go tight ass and sell the pick – Hell, I’d be looking at prospects long term right about now – Sure, the current unit is still playoff worthy, but in 2 years, will they be?
by dang on May 28, 2008 2:19 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Hey rosewood and other draft geeks
What do you think of the Orlando numbers?
I think there are some interesting numbers there. In my mind, this just strengthens the argument for Joe Alexander, but will he be there at 15? He has a great vert (38”). Look at his strength, he benched the weight 24 times, as opposed to 7 for Javalle McGee. And look at the speed – he beat DJ Augustin (2.99 to 3.07)!!
Is JA worth moving up to get?
Some other numbers of note. Darrell Arthur – a disappointing 30” vert. Patrick Ewing – 42” vert. Richard Hendrix – a pedestrian 28 for vert, but an amazing 7’3” wingspan and 10.62 second time in the lane agility drill. no other frontcourt man scored under 11 seconds. Again, JaValle McGee scores horribly at 12.75 seconds. Donte Green has a vert of 31.5.
Conclusions off the top:
McGee is slow footed and weak in the upper body
Arthur can’t jump
Alexander is a gazelle who is also a beast and can jump out of the gym
Green is advertised as a leaper, but jumps 6.5 inches lower than Alexander.
Go for Joe, Hendrix would be a great 2nd round pick!
April 29, 2008 Total Eclipse of the Sun. Is the sky falling?
by Hawk42 on Jun 4, 2008 7:54 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
The Numbers
There was definitely some interesting stuff:
1) Joe Alexander is faster than D.J and Derrick Rose (at least on one day). I’ve been loving him for a while now, but I really don’t see him falling out of the lottery unless he does horribly in his private workouts. He’s going to make some team very happy in a couple of years.
2) Darrell Arthur’s vertical surprised me, but he also had a relatively good no step vert, which means even if he doesn’t get that high, he can get there quickly. His speed was impressive though (3.14). I was even more disappointed at Jordan’s numbers for a supposed Dwight Howard type athlete. Maybe he showed up out of shape? On the other hand, how about Kevin Love! 35 inch vertical!? He’s a top 9 pick now for sure. But he’s still fat. He’ll need to work on that.
3) Greene’s vertical was maybe a little lower than I would have thought, but he’s more of a Rashard Lewis/Kevin Durant type athlete than a Marion. His agility/speed numbers looked good, and you can’t forget that for a guy his size (or any size really), he’s got crazy good perimeter skills. I can’t say I’d hate it if the Suns drafted him.
4) I love Richard Hendrix, because he’s an almost no downside pick. But I don’t think he’ll drop all the way to 19 in the second. Joey Dorsey might be there, but I’d doubt that too. In the same mold, there’s still Nathan Jawai, the Aussie beast. But really, I can’t see any of them making it to us unless we trade up in the second round, which I’ve been advocated for some time, since the cost would be much less and there’s so much talent at the top of the 2nd (the bigs plus Bill Walker, DeVon Hardin, Gary Forbes and more.). If we don’t trade up, we might get lucky and have J.R. Giddens or Kyle Weaver fall to us, which would be nice.
5) DeMarcus Nelson (6’1”) has ridiculous Rashad McCants type arms. His wingspan is 6’10”!!!!!
6) I know McGee didn’t jump/bench well or do well in the agility drill, but wow 9’6.5” standing reach. And he dribbles like a small forward. I would not want the Suns to take him, but I eager to see who does take the risk.
7) O.J. Mayo is really good. He’s looked good in early workouts. His numbers were awesome. He’s got good size for a combo guard. I think people forget that coming into this season he was the consensus no.1. I still think Beasley’s better than everyone else, but knowing crazy ass Pat Riley, I think we really might see Mayo at 2 (provided Rose is off the board at 1).
8) Eric Gordon is a redonkulous athlete. His stock had been shaky (or so says blogs) lately, but those are the kinds of numbers he needed to throw up. Of course, Dave Berri and his entourage say he’s the worst player in the lottery. So who knows.
9) There are still a number of big time players I’m waiting to hear more about who are very relevant for the Suns: Chris Douglas Roberts, Brandon Rush, Chase Budinger, Mareese Speights, Koufos, and Batum. I’m especially curious about Mareese Speights. As Joe Alexander fades into the lottery, I’m starting to very much get interested in Speights. But who knows what Kerr is thinking. I just hope it’s not D.J. Augustin.
Sven to Benfica! Please, please, please!
by rosewood on Jun 4, 2008 11:25 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Note
When I was saying Greene was a Durant/Lewis type athlete I didn’t mean he was at that caliber of player. He’s just more akin to those two than to gazelle/leapers like Josh Smith or Marion.
Sven to Benfica! Please, please, please!
by rosewood on Jun 4, 2008 11:51 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks rosewood
for this fantastic analysis
Wondering what the skip-2-my-loo to do next with my empty summer
by ZonaFlash on Jun 13, 2008 11:05 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
McGoo!
Totally stunned at McGee’s numbers. In some early pre-draft literature, he looked like an ideal fit for the Suns (being sold as a running big). Now… ugh.
At 15, the Suns are going to have to get lucky to get an impact player. As much as we had a mid-season pre-season with Shaq last year, I look for the Suns to have an extended pre-season as they figure out how to work the youth movement (Strawberry, Tucker, #15) into the rotation.
by Mike Lisboa on Jun 12, 2008 5:38 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Porter draft
Does the Porter hire affect the draft pick? I think not, but it will be interesting to see. Terry does not have a long enough resume to suggest what type of coach he would be. I hope for his sake they don’t get a project.
April 29, 2008 Total Eclipse of the Sun. Is the sky falling?
by Hawk42 on Jun 8, 2008 7:37 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Draft Q&A
The workout invitees have Q&As on suns.com. I like DJ’s outlook, but I still want to see him play defense. Does anyone have info? Did they play any 3 on 3? Chalmers was there, so he had someone to guard.
April 29, 2008 Total Eclipse of the Sun. Is the sky falling?
by Hawk42 on Jun 10, 2008 4:27 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
The Five
Since I’m pretty sure Joe Alexander is now out of reach, I’ve changed my opinions on which way we should go.
1. Mareese Speights
2. Nicolas Batum
3. Serge Ibaka
4. Brandon Rush
5. Robin Lopez
I’m really an upside guy, so the top three are guys who have lottery-type talent but alleged motivation or experience issues.
Rush and Lopez are more limited upside but really little downside guys. I would be satisfied with either.
McGee, Jawai, and Greene are all interesting picks but, to me, exceed the risk threshold that would make me approve passing up Rush or Lopez.
Sven to Benfica! Please, please, please!
by rosewood on Jun 12, 2008 6:19 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Just curious Rose
how you evaluate these guys and make these decisions? Are you looking at more info then the standard stuff or just thinking about it deeper then the rest of us?
Btw – we (BSoS) are participating in a mock draft soon so I hope you and Hawk are around to provide input…details coming soon.
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Phoenix Stan on Jun 13, 2008 8:40 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's a lot of stuff
I record/watch a lot of college basketball (because I’m obsessed with the draft), so with guys like Rush, Lopez, Alexander and Greene, I got to watch them more than a few times this year and in years past. Of course, this doesn’t do anything for guys like Batum or Ibaka much less Jawai. Add to that fact, I’m obviously not a scout, and this isn’t really all that helpful for anything but my “gut” feeling.
I also just read the normal realGM/Draftexpress/nbadraft.net stuff, but I read it compulsively all year long. I also like to go back with the American players and examine their high school record and how/if they developed in college. For international players, it makes me watch all their videos. I’ve been looking for all I could find on Batum for a 2-3 years now, since he was projected as a top 3 pick (so long ago).
I used to like to do some basic DBerri win score number crunching (which has made me really understand the Speights argument), but now they do it for us, which is cool. I’m in the process of setting up an adjusted +/- spreadsheet, since truehoop posted the link on how to get that done. Woo!
I also try to keep up with international basketball, but since games are pretty much impossible to watch (until this coming year!) all I can do is read blogs like ballineurope, interbasket, the fiba site, and draftexpress (which is my homepage).
But mainly, as you said, I just think about it a lot and take/memorize the word of reliable sources. Same as any other fan, maybe just more emphatic. So with Speights, after he got the glowing skill reviews and hype for the past year or so on draftexpress, the Dberri stamp of approval, the limited video you can find on the net, the fact that he wasn’t a big time college recruit, the fact that he fits a need (he has the reach to play center), the recorded game I had of him against tennessee (well, most of the game), all made me kind of think this is the guy after my first love Alexander got too good for 15.
But who knows. Maybe Lopez is the guy. I just have no crush on him.
Sven to Benfica! Please, please, please!
by rosewood on Jun 13, 2008 9:22 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dirty Lopez
Having seen the Lopez boys play in person, if there is any justice in the world, one will go to the Spurs and one to the Pistons. Those fellas are the bastard offspring of Bill Laimbeer. Wicked dirty down low.
by Mike Lisboa on Jun 13, 2008 10:06 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Glad to have you advising us!
Wondering what the skip-2-my-loo to do next with my empty summer
by ZonaFlash on Jun 13, 2008 10:34 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tendex is good for college bball
Back in the day, this was the one statistic that showed how outstanding Steve Nash was, particularly in comparison to other college point guards.
I think there’s a lot to be said for having some objective measure of how “good” someone is. There are no guarantees, but it can help one create a pool of good candidates from which to choose. More importantly, it can act as a sanity check in case you feel like drafting a Bobby Hurley.
"True glory consists of doing what deserves to be written, and writing what deserves to be read".
by Pliny the Elder on Jun 13, 2008 10:40 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why bother
Don’t work up a lather worrying about the draft. Rumor is Sarver will sell the pick for $3,000.000.
by TheTruthSquad on Jun 13, 2008 12:26 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
rumor?
Do you have substantiation for that report, or are you just being a bitter fan?
April 29, 2008 Total Eclipse of the Sun. Is the sky falling?
by Hawk42 on Jun 13, 2008 8:26 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
Because Kerr was just on the radio yesterday – and guaranteed the Suns would take a player this year.
No hedging. No “we are looking at all options”. Just a very clear statement.
Anyway – we will know soon enough.
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Phoenix Stan on Jun 13, 2008 8:39 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
2nd Round Pick
Goran Dragic!
Sven to Benfica! Please, please, please!
by rosewood on Jun 13, 2008 9:35 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
on no evidence whatsoever
I believe we will select the best wing available. At 15, that will also be the best athlete available after the best PG and size players are gone.
Unlike rosewood, I don’t like the players with motivation issues (despite size) when solid players are available. Fixing the game of a gym rat is easier than fixing the head of a prima donna (see Bowen). Guys with motivation issues end up in the Dirty, not, IMHO, improving their game.
At 15 we should be able to pick up a very talented, hard-working athletic player with SF/SG size at 15 with perhaps limited athletic upside but not much downside either. We need a team, not another prima donna.
These wing players fall in the draft b/c are the they are quite replaceable which is why we let Marion go in the first place.
Late draft is where you pick up shooting guards and rotation players.
I don’t worry about making late-rounder Alando Tucker obselete, as a little competition is fine. Tucker is a bit smallish in my opinion for SF, so he needs to be channeling Mike Finley from the SG position.
One big drag in my mind is that GSW picks ahead of us and tends to like the players we like. That sux.
Wondering what the skip-2-my-loo to do next with my empty summer
by ZonaFlash on Jun 13, 2008 10:46 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
At 15
I don’t think there will be a comparable wing player to Batum. His isn’t a motivation issue. People just think he’s a bit passive. But Scottie Pippen is his favorite player, so I think that explains a lot about his approach to the game. He’s a Robin, not a Batman.
I have a gut feeling that Kerr will go with the “proven winner” theory and draft Rush, who’s great but more of a SG, and that’s not that bad. I just wouldn’t call it much of an inspired pick.
Of course, if we want the best pure athlete, Ibaka seems to be a freak of the special sort.
It’s a good point about Golden State. Perhaps, now that we’re exiting the SSOL phase though, our interests aren’t so much the same.
I’m still pro-Speights, but Batum is more of my 1A than no.2.
Sven to Benfica! Please, please, please!
by rosewood on Jun 13, 2008 10:57 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kerr likes pedigree, but has also balls
He may go with pedigree, any chance he’ll gamble?
Wondering what the skip-2-my-loo to do next with my empty summer
by ZonaFlash on Jun 13, 2008 11:07 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
SSOL = Suns Shit Out of Luck?
When I see SSOL, that’s what I hear.
And you’re right, we aren’t going Euro players heavy or for Bellinis this time round.
We’ll be looking for some very hard-nosed canny players.
Wondering what the skip-2-my-loo to do next with my empty summer
by ZonaFlash on Jun 13, 2008 11:09 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gah!
I was going to make that joke! Psychic thief!
by Mike Lisboa on Jun 13, 2008 5:55 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's an interesting update from Griffin today
Reading into this - or just plain reading this – the Suns are feeling the need for a shooter and that Batum is a few years from NBA ready.
I think they are willing to pull the trigger on more of a project with upside but not sure they are keen to wait two or three years for a #15 pick.
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Phoenix Stan on Jun 13, 2008 3:55 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh geez. we need a shooter
I bet you can guess what Nellie’s looking for too.
Wondering what the skip-2-my-loo to do next with my empty summer
by ZonaFlash on Jun 13, 2008 5:10 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Project?
So they’re willing to take a project but not willing to wait 2-3 years? Do they know what project means?
If we’re looking shooter, that means we’re taking, in order,
1. Chase Budinger
2. Brandon Rush
3. Donte Greene
At least, we’re set for a great volleyball team. Actually, Budinger a nice player. There just hasn’t been much info on him of late. He doesn’t really do the whole “defense” thing, but he’s a good offensive player and has great range.
Sven to Benfica! Please, please, please!
by rosewood on Jun 13, 2008 6:01 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not knowing much myself
What’s the risk Chase is another Adam Morrison type?
No more shooters-no defense types please.
I’m more open to Rush at this stage.
Wondering what the skip-2-my-loo to do next with my empty summer
by ZonaFlash on Jun 14, 2008 2:38 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Budinger; Morrison
Budinger’s way, way more athletic than Morrison, so that’s not a worry. I mean, he can dunk from the free throw line. But he’s more of straight line athlete i.e. he can run very fast and jump very high, but doesn’t move that well side to side. Think Brent Barry.
Morrison on the other hand just doesn’t seem to have the athletic ability to make it in the NBA.
So I’m not hugely down on Budinger. I’d rather see Rush though if we’re going in this direction. It’s too bad we don’t have our other pick that we traded to Sonics though, because then we could go for Speights and Courtney Lee, which would be an ideal draft.
Oh well.
Sven to Benfica! Please, please, please!
by rosewood on Jun 14, 2008 10:00 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
In other words,
Budinger would always be a defensive liability whereas Rush might be able to do the job from the swing position?
Thanks for your analysis. Sounds like Chase >> Morrison.
Wondering what the skip-2-my-loo to do next with my empty summer
by ZonaFlash on Jun 15, 2008 4:44 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mock draft update
I am a bit swamped and will post this officially later but here’s the schedule. Matt at RU is running this of course.
I am looking for you guys to participate and really drive this thing. I will play the Sarver role to your Griffin :) except I won’t be looking for $3m to trade it unless someone calls me and offers me $3m for my mock draft pick in which case you suckers and fend for yourselves!
Okay, gents, we’re good to go. No trades. Additional comments are encouraged, as long or as short as you’d like. I have no problem with you submitting multiple picks ahead of time to see who lands, but please don’t make me go Minnesota Vikings in 2003 on you. All times are CST, and that’s when your pick is due. Let me know if you have any questions or concerns.Monday:
1. Blog-A-Bull 8AM
2. Peninsula is Mightier 10:30AM
3. Canis Hoopus 1PM
4. (Working on the Sonics rep) 3:30PM
5. 3 Shades of Blue 6PM
6. Posting and Toasting 8:30PMTuesday
7.ClipsNation 8:00AM
8. BrewHoop 10:30AM
9. Queen City Hoops 1PM
10. Nets Daily 3:30PM
11. Indy Cornrows 6PM
12. Sactown Royalty 8:30PMWednesday
13. Blazers Edge 8:00AM
14. Golden State of Mind 10:30AM
15. Bright Side of the Sun 1PM
16. (working on it) 3:30PM
17. (sorting out between the bazillion good Raptors blogs) 6PM
18. Bullets Forever 8:30PM
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Phoenix Stan on Jun 13, 2008 3:13 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
rosewood=griffin
Wondering what the skip-2-my-loo to do next with my empty summer
by ZonaFlash on Jun 13, 2008 5:11 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
We should have a thread
Where everyone puts up a vote under his name. That way no one can repeat vote on a poll. That’d be the best way to choose it as a blog, I think.
Sven to Benfica! Please, please, please!
by rosewood on Jun 13, 2008 6:08 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
We would have to do it all in 2.5 hours on Wed.
However, I’m all for deferring my vote to the expert.
Wondering what the skip-2-my-loo to do next with my empty summer
by ZonaFlash on Jun 14, 2008 2:37 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Russel Westerbrook
I think we can strike him from the list for the following reasons:
[1] His agent is Arn Tellem, the same hardballer agent for Joe Johnson.
[2] His “Best Case” upside comparison according to DraftExpress is Leandro Barbosa.
We already got Leandro and there’s not enough upside to suffer that kind of an agent for another one.
Wondering what the skip-2-my-loo to do next with my empty summer
by ZonaFlash on Jun 15, 2008 12:10 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Danilo Gallinari
And NO on this guy too. Sure, Arn Tellem is a negative, but I say NO because I am tired of being disappointed by European players.
Word is he won’t fall to us, but even if he is the most talented player at 15, I cannot stomach another European player on the team… =)
Wondering what the skip-2-my-loo to do next with my empty summer
by ZonaFlash on Jun 15, 2008 12:38 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
It's On!
Wondering what the skip-2-my-loo to do next with my empty summer
by ZonaFlash on Jun 16, 2008 8:29 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Thoughts
Anthony Randolph and Joe Alexander will not be available at 15.
Robin Lopez and Kosta Koufos are too limited. JaVale McGee is weak. Nice size but not close to being good enough yet.
Nicolas Batum is French, besides he’s still not good enough. I don’t like Darrell Arthur’s inconsistency.
I’m conflicted between Rush, Greene and Speights.
Any help?
Wondering what the skip-2-my-loo to do next with my empty summer
by ZonaFlash on Jun 16, 2008 8:43 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
It all about what you want
If you want a swing man who is ready now but maybe doesn’t have a lot of room to improve, then Rush (23 years old) is your guy.
If you want a small forward with a great perimeter game and a lot of upside but still a year or two away, take Greene.
If you want a skilled big man with a lot of potential but is also a year or two away, take Speights.
If you want the most talented prospect at 15, take Batum.
It’s your world, Zona. Make it happen.
Sven to Benfica! Please, please, please!
by rosewood on Jun 16, 2008 10:43 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm leaning towards Rush
I’m not so sold on raw athleticism or “upside”, and much more geared towards basketball IQ, work ethic/drive, character and applied skill. I think it’s important that who you’re getting right now is capable, after a preseason’s worth of acclimatization, of contributing to a team, even if it is 5 mins/night. There are too many players in this league who come in full of potential and athletic ability, who never truly improve.
Also, given the variances in strength of college schedule, what I look for are players that remind me of an archetype, or combinations of an archetype
My archetypes, skillwise, wrt position are:
C: Olajuwon/Robinson/Shaq
PF: Duncan/Malone/Rodman/Rasheed
SF: Pippen/James/Marion
SG: Kobe/Hamilton/McGrady/Ginobili
PG: Nash/Paul/Williams/Kidd/Billups/Parker
"True glory consists of doing what deserves to be written, and writing what deserves to be read".
by Pliny the Elder on Jun 17, 2008 12:30 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
There's nothing wrong with Rush
but you really shouldn’t confuse raw athletic ability with upside. Batum and Greene are both more skilled than Rush. Rush is, however, likely a better athlete than Greene.
What holds players back from reaching their potential isn’t always lack of skill, though it can be in the case of players like Javale McGee or DeAndre Jordan.
But Batum, for instance, has a great basketball IQ, is a great, unselfish passer, has a strong work ethic, and fantastic mid-range game to go with his crazy athleticism and finishing ability. What he lacks is ball-handling ability, range, strength, and what people call “killer instinct.” He’s a head case, but not of the J.R. Rider sort. He seems to have confidence issues. You harness that and you have something special.
This isn’t to say there aren’t good reasons to take Rush. There are. He’s ready to play now. He’s a great shooter (though he can’t dribble), and he’s got the potential to be a great defender. So i really wouldn’t be too upset if the Suns drafted him. I see him and I see Doug Christie, which is a good thing.
But I think you’re a little too harsh on upside players. I mean, sure sometimes upside makes you draft Marvin Williams over Chris Paul. But sometimes it makes you draft Dwight Howard over Emeka Okafor.
I’ve been advocating Speights for awhile but now it so hard to get Batum out of my head and I can see the logic of the Rush pick. Tomorrow there will be soul-searching.
Joe Alexander come back!
Sven to Benfica! Please, please, please!
by rosewood on Jun 17, 2008 2:29 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Like I said
I defer my draft vote to the local expert.
I’m fine with a player being a year or two away, as long as they are likely to achieve their upside. I think head-cases are hardest to solve, even if they are not of the JR Rider sort.
If you think Spieghts or Greene can pull through and perform in a few years, then that’s the pick to make. Ideally, they have to play well with Amare. Would that be an issue for Speights, you think? What kind of defender can Spieghts be?
Wondering what the skip-2-my-loo to do next with my empty summer
by ZonaFlash on Jun 17, 2008 4:07 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
They were supposed to be read as separate qualities.
I didn’t mean for you to conflate raw athletic ability with upside, they are and I consider them to be separate. I just find the term “upside” to be a loaded term.
My difficulty with upside is that it’s hard to quantify, and even more difficult to cultivate. Bynum, for instance, has a load of potential. But without the expert one-on-one tutelage from Kareem, I think he would be a bust. Kwame Brown is a good example of what happens when you do this wrong, how easy it is to ruin a player’s career, and how hard it is to instill mental qualities into a player. Not everyone is born with Jordan’s or Russell’s mental toughness.
I think there are two stages in a teams lifecycle where you can take the risk: a) if the core of the team is stable, for the long term, and you can put the kid with veterans and bring him along; or b) if the team is rebuilding, and you have a bunch of young players. At this stage of the Sun’s championship challenging cycle, I would be disinclined to take the risk and look for someone who can contribute immediately, that’s all.
As for Rush, the 411 on him suggests great basketball IQ, and a great work ethic. Moreover, he can pass, which imho is a vastly underrated skill. otoh, he may not even be available when we pick.
"True glory consists of doing what deserves to be written, and writing what deserves to be read".
by Pliny the Elder on Jun 17, 2008 11:50 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where are we?
I think this is the largest problem in projecting the Suns pick. It doesn’t seem that we’re rebuilding, but we’re really not a championship contender right now (or at best a fringe contender) and no player in the draft (that we can acquire) can change that. We’re just a good team right now that’s primed for another first or second round exit. But we don’t really have the correct combination of tradeable assets that will let us begin the rebuilding process in earnest this season.
So I’m not sure why we need to be particularly risk averse. We’re more or less in a holding pattern for the next two years. If Kerr and Griffin want to take Rush (or Lopez) because they believe that they will become better NBA players than Batum, Speights, or Greene, that’s fine. Very much could be the case. But if they’re selecting them because we don’t have time to develop a riskier but potentially better player and instead need an immediate impact guy that could take us to a title…well, that just seems woefully misguided and short-sighted.
Sven to Benfica! Please, please, please!
by rosewood on Jun 17, 2008 2:18 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
we're in a transition phase
with a short term window of 2 years to contend for the ‘ship. I will disagree with the notion that we’re a 1st round and out team, until this team and Coach Porter have had an entire pre-season together. I look at the Lakers and the Celtics, and to me they’re both eminently beatable by even the current Suns.
So, for this upcoming season, I’d like players who can definitely help contribute to that immediate goal, rather than find someone who might be good, on the grounds that a good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow. And it’s relatively to teach a young player to be good defensively, which is where we have a need.
Now, I have to say two things: firstly, the two year window is important. It’s not enough time, imho, to develop a good player (who really won’t start to contribute until the 2nd year), either as part of a veteran squad or as part of a rebuild. If we only had one year or three years, I’d agree that taking a chance on a player might be worth it. Moreover, known solid players are easier to trade than projects.
Secondly, if you find a player who you just know in your bones is going to be an all star caliber player, then you have to go for that player, and throw out all my arguments. Problem is that’s hard to do.
I’d suggest that from Kerr’s point of view, the rebuilding doesn’t start until they free ~$35 Million with Shaq’s, Nash’s and Hill’s contracts. How he manages that cash-pile will determine, for me, how good a GM Kerr will be.
"True glory consists of doing what deserves to be written, and writing what deserves to be read".
by Pliny the Elder on Jun 17, 2008 4:47 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
They're stealing our picks!
To no one’s real surprise, Alexander and Randolph are off the board in the RU Mock Draft. To some surprise, however, Chase Buddinger is going home to Lute next season.
I think DJ Augustin’s name hasn’t gotten enough play here yet. Granted, he will probably be gone, but the Suns need an heir to The Producer’s throne. It’s going to take a lot of convincing for me to believe that Strawberry is that guy. He’s a tenacious defender, but his ball handling/decision-making need a boatload of work.
Here’s my top 3 choices (for the mock draft) based on what’s transpired so far: 1) Augustin, 2) Rush, 3) Greene.
My feeling is that this is a veteran team that needs players that can step in and make an impact now by fattening the rotation.
by Mike Lisboa on Jun 17, 2008 8:51 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Aim High: Batum in 2008
The Suns are two years from a massive rebuilding project. I think guys like Robin Lopez, Rush, and Augustin all might be very good players and all are very likely to be able to contribute next year (well, maybe not Augustin since it’s hard for rookie PGs).
But with so much at stake (we’ll only have one late pick in next year’s draft and none in 2010), I just wish we’d aim a little higher. Batum, Speights, McGee, and even Greene are all big time talents, and I just can’t agree with passing up that kind of upside for a rookie 8th man contributor to a slim chance at a championship.
To me, having a contributor right now is all fine and well, and I wouldn’t go so far as to say Rush, Augustin or Lopez are bad picks, especially Rush. But in two years when Raja, Nash, Shaq and Hill are all gone, will they be the players that can take us to the next level?
So that’s my argument for, in the end, Batum. He probably won’t give us much of anything next year, but I don’t think the contributions of Rush or Augustin will be making the difference for a title run next year either. So I don’t see why letting Batum, who is only 19, mature for a couple years on the bench hurts us. But I do see why having a 25 year old topped out Brandon Rush in 2010/2011 instead of blossoming Pippen in Batum makes us a much more mediocre squad down the road.
Sven to Benfica! Please, please, please!
by rosewood on Jun 17, 2008 11:26 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
There are no guarantees.
I remember the Pistons drafting an 18 year old, 7’0, can’t miss prospect called Darko Milicic. After 6 years in the league, that dude is on his 3rd team. The NBA is littered with the corpses of careers drafted on potential. That’s all I’m saying.
Rosewood, I admire your optimism, truly. And Batum might potentially be the next Pippen, but it’s more than likely he won’t be. And I’m not convinced about Speights, who seems to be too mentally unfocused for my liking as a 1st round pick, even though he’s a good shooter and rebounder.
If you’re going to draft for upside, then it’s important, imho, to get someone with mental toughness, a strong work ethic, and proven defensive abilities, as that limits your downside.
If I were drafting for upside, I’d be inclined to go for Hibbert over Speights, to be honest and, if he’s still available in the 2nd round, Nathan Jawai. Moreover, I’d see if Kareem would work for us as a full assistant coach.
"True glory consists of doing what deserves to be written, and writing what deserves to be read".
by Pliny the Elder on Jun 18, 2008 12:55 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
And two picks later
The Raptors took a skinny project with focus problems named Chris Bosh.
I know Batum may not be a Pippen though I don’t think that mean necessarily he’ll be Darko. There’s plenty of levels in between, and it seems unlikely that a player with his athletic ability who is already a starter in France won’t at least be a productive player in the NBA at some point.
And he does have some of the tools you’d want: a great work ethic (he doesn’t have a Beasley type reputation); a great basketball IQ; he’s a superior passer; has a great mid-range game; has great defensive fundamentals.
The real question with him is will his confidence/passivity (and thin frame) hold him back from becoming Pippen as opposed to Josh Childress or Jared Jefferies, which only time will tell.
All this is sort of moot though: I don’t think the Suns are actually going to take him. if he’s there, I think the pick is Rush, and I’m all right with that too, provided he learns how to dribble with his left hand.
Sven to Benfica! Please, please, please!
by rosewood on Jun 18, 2008 1:29 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Be careful with European players.
The French league is at best the 4/5th in Europe after Italy, Spain, Greece and maybe Turkey. Even though it’s a pro league, I’m not certain that it compares even to div 1-A college ball, here in the US.
I’d caution you that it’s all too easy to be deceived by competition vs inferior opponents. Remember, Darko had won a European Cadet Championship and an under-20 World Championship by the time he was 17. At the time, almost everyone thought he was a solid lock for greatness in the NBA. otoh, if the truth be told, he was hosed wrt playing time by the Pistons, and that contributed to his lack of improvement, imho.
Chris Bosh, otoh, played for Georgia Tech, which made it easier for teams to do a good job of scouting.
I’m not sure it’s a moot point if the Suns trade for an additional 1st round pick, as rumors would suggest. In that case, they may indeed draft for Rush + Batum. Which leads to the most important question.. if the Suns got themselves a genuine project, would they be capable of nurturing him to be an all-star caliber player?
"True glory consists of doing what deserves to be written, and writing what deserves to be read".
by Pliny the Elder on Jun 18, 2008 3:03 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs



















