NBA Finals - Back to the Future Eddition
Another finals without the Suns and it looks like our shot at that glory has passed us by. The Suns will surely enter next season as a second tier team fighting for scraps place behind the resurgent Lakers and the upstart Hornets and Jazz. Consolation can be found in the Spurs riding the slide with us back to mediocrity .
Of course, hope can also be found in the two teams left standing. Both ended last season with dim prospects and both hit the NBA trade machine lottery to instantly propel them back to this match-up made in Stern's dreams.
Maybe Kerr can work out a deal that sends Diaw to the Knicks in return for their spot in the Eastern Conference.
As for the two finalists, it should be a great battle. Kobe and Phil against KG and Pierce.
Certainly it's understandable why the Lakers are the favorite with the greatest player on the planet and the Celtics haven't exactly impressed with their ability to score the ball consistently. Ray Allen's performance has cut the Big Three down by a third.
Despite that, I think the C's match-up well with Pierce giving Kobe some trouble on both ends and KG able to man up Gasol.
Where this one gets most interesting is the Odom/Perkins duel. The Celtics with KP followed by Powe and Davis are huge up front and the Lakers don't have an answer. If Doc can take advantage of that size on the glass and in the low post while still preventing the Lakers from running too much they have a shot.
Jax knows this of course, and is going to use what he learned from Mike D'Antoni and run the crap out of the ball and use his smaller, faster lineups to turn this into a track meet.
The only chance Boston has is if they can get 25 ppg out of the Perkins/Powe/Davis combo and keep Odom in foul trouble and absolutely dominate on the boards. If Doc Rivers is able to force DJ Mbenga on to the floor then things are looking up for the Bean Towner's.
Lakers in 6 to cap off a very painful season for Suns fans.
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33 comments
Comments
dont forget the coaches
some people dont realize it but playoff basketball usually comes down to the coaches. phil jackson completly owns doc rivers. lakers in 5 or 6.
by #1lakerfan on Jun 1, 2008 12:13 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Totally agree...
Colonel Sanders will eat Doc Rivers’ lunch, take him to school, mop the floor, take his milk money, etc. The Colonel will be the reason why they beat the Celtics. Similar to Riley or Don Nelson vs. Avery Johnson, Popovich vs. D’Antoni, Popovich vs. Byron Scott, etc.
by Aluminum Foyle on Jun 1, 2008 1:24 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
exactly
jackson out coached karl, sloan (future hall of famer), and popovich (4 time champ, future hall of famer). rivers barley got passed woodson, brown, and saunders. forget the players. the biggest missmatch is the coaches.
by #1lakerfan on Jun 1, 2008 7:50 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ray Allen
is back. He has shot the ball well in 3 of the last 4 games and has had 4 straight good games (the one bad shooting night he had six assists). The “Big Three” is once again three deep.
The Celtics tore through the Lakers in the regular season game where the Lakers had Bynum (make of that what you will). While the Lakers do look good after running through the West while never trailing a series, the Celtics also dispatched the Pistons with relative ease. The Pistons were the second best team in the NBA this season (by wins and efficiency differential). The Lakers faced a Utah team with a Boozer that couldn’t buy a bucket or stay out of foul trouble and an offensively mediocre SA team which was without Ginobli (that man wearing the no. 20 jersey in the series was NOT Ginobli). However, the Pistons also had a banged up Billups/Rip (1 game). For my money, I think Perk will guard Gasol and not Odom (due to speed concerns). I don’t think Lakers are the superior team; I think the teams are evenly matched (optimistically speaking for the Lakers).
by RealTangiblesGuy on Jun 1, 2008 12:55 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Your observation is out of date
The Lakers team is playing at a different level when they played the Celtics in the regular season. Also, credit Lakers’ defense on Boozer’s low outputs. It shut down SA Game 1, 2 and 5 when needed. It is way underrated.
by majesticblue on Jun 2, 2008 1:12 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Its funny
I have heard how great Kobe was and I have heard how poor Ginobili played but I haven’t heard Kobe get credit to his defense on Manu. Now – let me say that I only really watched the 1st and last games and parts of others and I didn’t “study” the games like I would w/ a Suns playoff game. So, perhaps Kobe didn’t cover Manu enough to make that connection.
If I really cared, I would re-watch the games and see how the Lakers covered Manu to see how much credit they deserve. Any comments from you lurking wanna-be Suns fans posing as Lakers or Spurs fans?
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Phoenix Stan on Jun 2, 2008 1:40 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not Kobe
Kobe was not responsible guarding Manu and I wasn’t referring to defense on just Manu. What I said was SA turned scoreless when Kobe and gangs made some serious runs on the Spurs near the end of Game 1 and 5. You can definitely argue Spurs’ offense meltdown or you could give credit to Lakers’ defense. I gave 65% credit to Lakers’ clamping down and denying every shot opportunity that the Spurs had.
BTW, Kobe is a great defender and should be able to defend against Manu as well as anyone in the Lakers squad. But you know that any good coach would not want to expend his best player’s energy on defense.
by majesticblue on Jun 2, 2008 11:07 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
I think there are plenty of good coaches that instruct their best player to expend energy on defense.
by RealTangiblesGuy on Jun 3, 2008 11:46 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Regular Season, Boozer, SA
I agree that the regular season observation is out of date and that is why I left a disclaimer by it.
Boozer shot 43% in the Houston series including 35% during the last 3 games. During the Lakers series, he shot 40% from the field. Looks like a slumping Boozer to me. He did not shoot well during either series and you could claim that the Lakers further reduced his shooting by 3% due to their defense but it seems like he was slumping more and more when you look at the last 3 games of the Houston series anyways. Also, his “slumping” is signaled by how frequently and quickly he got in foul trouble against the Lakers. I won’t blame the refs, but I will blame Boozer for not being able to adjust and still be effective. And after the SA series, it sure doesn’t seem like the Lakers have a knack for getting great post players into foul trouble. Instead, it looks like it was just Boozer slumping.
I did not see games 2 or 5 but did see game 1 of the SA series. Sure looked more liked a SA offensive collapse (they do that often) than a Laker defensive clampdown. But I will agree with you in that the Lakers defense is underrated. However, I don’t quite understand how having a defense that shuts other times down “when needed” is preferable to a defense like the Celtics which is more consistent.
by RealTangiblesGuy on Jun 2, 2008 4:34 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Defense in the playoff depends also on intensity
that the players decide to play. If the players are not too tired or exhausted, they can perhaps increase their level of plays on both ends if one of the team leaders or coach give a motivation line. I saw the Game 1 SA series. Lakers were down big but I didn’t sense panic or urgency throughout the 3 1/2 quarters. If I remember it correctly, Kobe also sat out the first couple minutes of 4th. Well, SA may have collapsed at the wrong time but I sure saw Lakers were very active in defense – challenging almost every shot the Spurs took or made them work a lot harder to fire a shot. In Game 1, I felt that Kobe’s offense actually ignited Lakers’ great defense. Yes, I do believe that offense can ignite defense – not just the other way.
Defense really depends on fresher legs PLUS motivation besides all the drills, strategies, matchups, etc.
by majesticblue on Jun 2, 2008 4:49 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree and Disagree
I disagree in that in game 1 I saw an offensive collapse, not a defensive clampdown. Maybe a third person will support/refute my claim. I agree that offense can spark great defense. I would claim this is rarer, however, than defense sparking offense. I agree that defense depends on all those things.
However, I don’t agree with the “when it counts” mentality with respect to anything. When a person says that a defense or a player “gets it done when it counts,” what I hear is them saying “this player or defense is unable to dominate at all times.” I would rather have something that is always on than something that is on “when it counts.” And, frankly, in the playoffs, it ALWAYS counts.
by RealTangiblesGuy on Jun 2, 2008 4:57 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fact is..
you can’t expect a player or players play a full 48 minutes of excellent basketball. This is why there are players can elevate when crunch time calls.
by majesticblue on Jun 2, 2008 5:10 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stll Don't Agree
Imagine you are an NBA player. Imagine you are a great player. Imagine you have an love winning more than anything else in the whole wide world. Imagine you have the ability to raise your game for a limited period of time. When would you choose to raise your game?
I would choose to raise my game during the opening minutes. This would increase my chances of building a huge lead and getting all the momentum behind me. This tactic would also put the thought of quitting into the other team’s mind. This would also allow the starters to rest more throughout the game. This would get the crowd behind me (at home) or put them to sleep (on the road). Meanwhile, elevating my game only at the end of close games would not improve my chances of winning as much and would also leave the fate of the game in the hands of the refs more so than raising your game at the beginning.
Who would raise their game only during “crunch time” situations? Drama queens. Keep in mind, a player can be both a great player and a drama queen.
Besides, I have yet to see any real analysis (besides anecdotal evidence) which proves that having one player do most of the shooting at the end of games is a more effective strategy than having a more balanced offense at the end of games. It would seem that if a certain player “demanded the ball” during crunch time situations, it would make the defense of the opposing team a ton more effective.
by RealTangiblesGuy on Jun 2, 2008 5:46 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
My rule for every series is to see how the first game goes and then try to judge how the series will go from there
Shaq:"The kobster, he's an assassin" Answer for who should be mvp.
by ldeep on Jun 1, 2008 2:15 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
More than just Dragonslayer vs Three-Head Dragon
I wrote earlier that Kobe is the sole star versus the Big Three. For that Kobe should be labeled the Dragonslayer trying to kill a Three-Head Dragon to save Lakers Empire.
But really, this will be a battle between the benches. Key to the series will be how ready are Lakers’ bench coming to play? If the likes of Sasha-Farmar-Walton can contribute and Lakers’ starters can rest, the Lakers will be in good position to clinch any game that is within 10-point going into the last 5 minutes. I can’t see the Celts more capable of stopping a fresh-legged Kobe than Spurs could.
by majesticblue on Jun 2, 2008 1:15 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
What?
Wait, let me get this straight: Even if the Lakers are losing by up to 10 points with five minutes of play remaining, they are in good position to clinch the game against a team who has never choked away a lead larger than 16 in the season. Do you want to change your statement to something else?
by RealTangiblesGuy on Jun 2, 2008 4:12 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
BTW
Your stat of “a team who has never choked away a lead larger than 16” is in no conflict with my prediction – not to say that yours is AGAIN based on regular-season plays. The conditions I’ve set were:
(1) if Lakers are down by 10 more less; AND
(2) if playing time is still 5 minutes or more in the 4th; AND
(3) if Lakers starters still have relatively fresh legs (i.e., less than 28 minutes played)...
Then Lakers can shut down the Celts on one end and let Kobe dominates the other. What I didn’t mention is, maybe I should, if Lakers are still relatively free from foul troubles. Lastly, I said that they’d be in ‘GOOD POSITION’ to claim the game away.
by majesticblue on Jun 2, 2008 4:37 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Um?
The 16 point stat is intact through the playoffs. From game 1 to game 102, no team that fell to the Celtics by more than 16 was able to pull out a win. I understand 16 is not 10, which is the point differential you claimed would put them in “good position.” However, my point was made to illustrate the difficulty of coming back against the Celtics more so than to claim that there is some law of nature which prevents teams from coming back from 16 down against this team. The only way the Lakers starters will have played less than 28 minutes with around five minutes left in the fourth during an NBA Finals game is if the game is an extreme blowout. In which case the point differential is definitely larger than 10. The only other way they could have played less than 28 each is if they were all in foul trouble. Which you once again say is inapplicable to your statement. So basically, you have stated an impossible situation and then claimed that if it occurs, the Lakers will be in a good position to win.
I'm saying that if your impossible situation does somehow occur, the Lakers will in fact be in bad position to win, not good position. In fact, after the Celtics come back down 10 in the fourth huge calls going against them at the time (4 point play), I'm shocked you would say that the Lakers would be in a good position to win if up by 10.
In my opinion, the teams are evenly matched and the only way either team will be in a “good position to win” is if it up by something like 15-20 with around six minutes left.
Plus, the Celtics should be expected to do better against a fresh-legged Kobe than the Spurs for two reasons: 1) They’re not all a kajillion years old and 2) KG is faster and more athletic than Duncan and is thus better suited for help D on a player like Kobe.
by RealTangiblesGuy on Jun 2, 2008 4:49 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
but then Allen is not Bowen
For years, I don’t buy the idea that Bowen is a Kobe Stopper or any of that sort. But then after watching the SA series and Utah one, I came to believe he is the best (he is at his best when Kobe is in front of him with a ball) Kobe defender. KG is quicker than Dunkin so he should be better stopping Kobe’s penetration PROVIDED he was IN POSITION to provide weakside help. In the SA series, Kobe had a hard time penetrating (the reason he didn’t go to foul line so many times) because of the excellent job Bowen did on Kobe. So in this series, I’d expect Kobe shooting more jump shots and up his number of assists.
by majesticblue on Jun 2, 2008 4:59 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Although it wasn't a 7 game series
I liked the D Battier played on Kobe more than Bowen’s D during that much hyped streak game where Kobe was going to take over and impose his will to end the winning streak.
by RealTangiblesGuy on Jun 2, 2008 5:10 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
28 minutes is possible
if the bench can sustain the Celts’ assaults with either excellent defense or offense. I was calculating Kobe playing 8-8-8 the first 3 quarters, then maybe entering the 4th at the 9:00 mark. Of course that’s a well-wish calculation. But then considering Lakers’ younger legs, they should still be OK even if they have played 30 mins. going into 5 of the 4th.
by majesticblue on Jun 2, 2008 5:08 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doesn't Kobe
play the entire first and third quarters?
by RealTangiblesGuy on Jun 2, 2008 5:10 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
If I were the coach
I’d keep Kobe’s playing time down or conserve his energy until the last quarter. The Lakers’ been trying to do that by either getting the bench more involved or, in almost every game against the SA or Utah, throwing the ball inside to Pau or Odom for the first three quarters even when Kobe was in the game. Most of the time though Pau and Odom didn’t come through when plays were initiated by them.
by majesticblue on Jun 2, 2008 5:15 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
A Question
What do you think of the Odom-KG matchup? Or do you think Lakers will try to play Gasol on KG and leave Odom with Perk?
by RealTangiblesGuy on Jun 2, 2008 5:18 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
They will both take turn
playing KG. Again, I believe that a successful team defense can eliminate or reduce a great post offense player’s threat. NO was able to get Dunkin’s numbers down (pts and assists) compared to the Lakers. I know Lakers are not NO so I expect Garnet will have a great series. The key to Lakers’ defense would be to find ways to neutral the other 2 Big-Three. This depends on Lakers’ other guards’ success against Allen and Pierce. If not, Kobe will have to be on one of them and that spells trouble.
by majesticblue on Jun 2, 2008 5:28 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kobe Defense
I think one of the keys will be how much D Kobe has to play. If has to play solid D throughout the game, he will be too worn out over the course of the series to contribute as much as is needed offensively. The Celtics saw this when Paul Pierce was covering Lebron. Expect for the 1 game explosion, Pierce was a shadow of himself offensively. Analysts also have to keep in mind that the Big 3’s playoff stats somewhat underestimate them. Ray Allen had been slumping for a long time and (by all signs) seems to have returned to form. As a result, his playoff numbers are less meaningful than they would be otherwise. Furthermore, Paul Pierce’s numbers were deflated by the lack of energy he had during the Cavs series where he played excellent D on Lebron.
by RealTangiblesGuy on Jun 2, 2008 5:49 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
even though duncan averaged 22+ points
the lakers held him to 42% shooting, which is terrible by duncan standards. expect them to hold garnett under 45%, even if he averages 20+ points. the problem that they will have with garnett and perkins is keeping them off the boards
by #1lakerfan on Jun 3, 2008 4:49 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just looked up
Kobe’s MP during the playoffs. Its at 40. So if we subtract the last five minutes of the fourth, we are at 35 MP on average. Thus, Kobe would have to play a whopping 7 minute less than his playoff average (an average that includes the Denver series). Come on man. You may not agree that your scenario was impossible. But at least admit it was somewhat unrealistic.
by RealTangiblesGuy on Jun 2, 2008 5:18 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL
It’s possible but, like you said, a little unrealistic. But the Lakers offense evolved around Pau or Odom pretty much the first 3 quarters (strategy to save Kobe’s legs). Man, turning on burner when you try to blow away your defender takes a lot of energy. Observe Parker’s production and you will understand.
by majesticblue on Jun 2, 2008 5:22 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haha
I understand. The Pau-Odom strategy will probably work least against the Celtics than any other team LA has faced thus far. Odom won’t give KG problems with speed as much as he did against the Spurs. Perkins’s ability to rebound and defense is severely underrated (probably because the national media doesn’t look at much else but PPG in evaluating players). This explains why they were so shocked by the huge game Perkins had in the Detroit series. He does that when he stays out of foul trouble. We also have P.J. Brown off the bench, who can still D ‘em up pretty good. I think Kobe will have to expend more energy running the offense than in any other series.
by RealTangiblesGuy on Jun 2, 2008 5:26 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kobe Dominates the Other
I think the 2004-2007 Lakers teams proved that Kobe dominating the offensive end is not an effective strategy to win games. It is an effective strategy for accruing massive point totals and then pointing at those who have not as the ones who messed up.
by RealTangiblesGuy on Jun 2, 2008 4:58 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
No question about this, yes?
Defense still wins series. In Game 1, Lakers would not win if SA were able to trade baskets with the Lakers.
by majesticblue on Jun 2, 2008 5:01 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

















