I’m holding out hope that the Steve Nash Effect will cover for some of Lopez’s lack of PER-prowess. Of course, we’re also about to find out how much of the SNE was really the Mike D’Antoni Effect.

I am not too impressed with Hollinger’s methodology. I remember reading an article on players he rated low that made it in the league, and also players he rated high that did not.

I don’t see how we can make a determination one way or the other until we see them on the court in training camp. Lopez and last year’s rookies have a chance to show something in summer league games. That is the next test bed. Until then, this is idle chatter.

Which is fine. After all, it is a blog.

Here’s the thing.
Let’s say Hollinger is totally right about Lopez’s stats and that his PER is going to be pretty low. Part of the reason (or rather, a major reason) the Suns got him was for his defense. sure that means doing statistical things like blocking shots, but it ALSO means doing things that DONT show up in a box score, or in Hollinger’s little formula

If Lopez plays good D on a possesion, thereby stopping the team from scoring, thats good. The Suns need more of that. But his PER wouldn’t show it at all.

So, I would say that Lopez is the type of player whose game is not tailored to be hacked apart by pure statistics.

and, his Dragic thing is just straight up speculation. Besides, the Suns have time to let him develope.

Another thing – you had twins playing on one team. They have exactly the same body type, and even similar mentalities. What are the chances both will produce good stats on the same team? Especially big men. Taking an extreme example. What if we had 2 Amares? One would do well, and the other would either play a supporting role, or have to go to another team.

Robin has been the one to subjugate his stats to Brook. I don’t see how Hollinger (or anyone) can accurately predict his NBA future using his college numbers.

Also, he claims to have stats saying Dragic will be bad based on Euroleague numbers. Again, I fail to see how some scant Euro stats can produce a valid sampling. Their game is not geared toward stats. Rarely does one player dominate.

is that he believes that Michael Jordan is the GOAT, and his methodology is geared towards producing that result.

While I don’t have a problem with the opinion in of itself, it does mean that he favors people who produce Jordan like games, and emphasizes scoring above other things. In particular, as Dave Berri pointed out, Hollinger’s system rewards low percentage high volume shooters.

That means that a player like Nash, whose game is predicated on giving other people on his team high percentage shooting opportunities is undervalued, while a player like Kobe or Iverson who have been known to focus on their own scoring, at the expense of team productivity, tend to be overvalued wrt PER.

I’m not worried about it. On paper it looks bad. Statistically and historically it looks bad, no question.

Then there’s Tau gonna try to hold on to the guy we paid $500K, and two second rounders for.

However, it doesn’t appear to be a fake, PR-style manipulation move or one made for the wrong reasons. I respect that. As long as the management is trying and not being negligent, I’m fine with them perhaps making some mistakes and learning from it.

is that average, but intelligent and good character players can be made to perform well when functioning as complementary players in a good system.

Hell, Kerr himself basically ended up being an overpaid benchwarmer on those championship Spurs teams, and look what happened to Jud Buechler after he left the Bulls.

We’ll see what happens with Dragic, but as you’ve all said here.. Steve Kerr has a plan for this team. That’s a good thing.

for a personnel point of view. Maybe we could have kept Shawn, but he seemed pretty determined to leave, given that we had decided to keep Amare. Personally, I would have kept Shawn, and made the trade for KG before the start of the season.

The last few years, the Suns have unloaded much talent and many picks to get under or close to the cap, and consequently we’ve been a team that has had very little margin for failure.

It’s clear that pressure to unload came from Sarver (while channeling his inner Donald Sterling), as he tried to build a championship team on a budget. That’s not to say Mike D, the GM, wasn’t also partially responsible for slightly overpaying Boris & Leandro..

The Suns have kept a minimal roster, wrt headcount. I don’t disagree with you about James Jones, but just want to remind you we did pretty much the same thing before with selling draft picks. Sarver is a man who doesn’t spend a penny that he doesn’t have to, and with Mike D maintaining a shallow rotation, those players were in his eyes unnecessary baggage.

I’d point out too that this draft is the first one where Kerr has been in full charge, as opposed to having a pissed-off ex-GM looking over your shoulder. I’d say he was both creative and bold in his picks. I’m also fairly happy with his coaching hires, modulo Thunder Dan. I would have hired Jeff Hornacek for the 4th spot, but I’m not sure Dan is a bad choice, either.

For what it’s worth, Team Porter, to me, looks like the adult version of Team D’Antoni, at least from a temperament point of view. Less flashy and creative, perhaps, but with less friction and probably better suited for the playoffs.

The question, which will remain unanswered until the regular season is how good a talent evaluator is Steve Kerr? If his choices are at all prescient, then that bodes well for the future

For the simple reason that they have a guy on a farm team that may pan out. How many players, exactly, do the Suns have stashed away overseas? Yeah, only that one. SA has been doing stuff like this for a while. They made a mistake letting Scola go, but they’ve cashed in doing this, too. On top of that, he’s a second-rounder. If getting Shaq was going “all-in” this move was a low-risk, high-reward investment. A much better overall move. It’d be great if he got over here this year to help the Suns get through the crack in the window, but its a good move regardless.

On Lopez—I don’t know if its a good move, but I do know that Amare does not need a scoring center. In fact, I think it limits him offensively. What he does need is a good defensive player to suck up his fouls and cover for his mistakes. A guy who’ll get offensive rebounds and make occassional lay-ups is what is needed. Can Lopez deliver on these fronts? I really don’t know. Was it worth a #15 pick? Probably not. But who else should the Suns have selected?

If you look at the Suns’ needs and what they had to work with, it was a good draft. It’s kind of like when your teacher rewarded a student with a good grade for trying hard and improving even though there were others who understood long division better.