Has the Phoenix Pendulum Stopped?
Eutychus here - I'm new to BSOTS - this is something I posted on planetorange.net a little bit ago, but I'll post it here as well to introduce myself.
The Phoenix Suns and Pendulum Adjustment
- An explanation of the ups and downs of the Phoenix Suns since 2004 and a formal response to this season’s naysayers, in particular those who say – "Why did we trade Shaq and get nothing in return?"
The looking glass through which we see and interpret our lives is made up of a number of factors. Some of those factors include our experiences, our knowledge, our traditions, our familial or social influences, or our talents and interests and so on.
The looking glass I have been dissecting the Suns with this summer, is one molded by my studies in history and philosophy. I have noticed a certain pattern over the last 5 years of glorious purple and orange basketball, and it is a pattern of human behavior and ideological shifting that I've observed in human history, I have deemed it – "Pendulum Adjustment." If my theory holds true, we should see a better suns team this year than our 05-07 Suns.
Let me first explain how the theory works – then I will explain how it applies to the Phoenix Suns
First off, imagine the swinging arm of an old grandfather clock, or imagine a child on a swing, this is a pendulum. A pendulum sits at equilibrium (the desired status) when it is at rest. As soon as the pendulum is displaced from its resting position, gravity pulls the pendulum and accelerates it back towards and past the point of equilibrium. Back and forth it swings, always trying to move towards it's desired state.

Much like a pendulum, we as humans are caught in struggles for equilibrium constantly. Generally, we are always moving from one extreme end of a spectrum to the opposite, seeking what is acceptable, or what is comfortable. This process occurs on many levels, be it an ideological, physiological, or a practical level, etc. "Pendulum Adjustment" is a broad term that I've coined which refers to this natural tendency or phenomenon, the back and forth, from extreme to extreme, until equilibrium is met.
A Few Examples:
-The old nursery rhyme of Goldilocks and the Three Bears demonstrates this process through Goldilocks' intrusion into the house of the three bears. She tries everything from the porridge to the chairs to the beds, each time two were either too hot or too cold, too big or too small, too soft or too hard, and one of each was 'just right'. Pendulum adjustment.
-When driving a vehicle - over-correction is a type of pendulum adjustment. When you are traveling fast and forced to make a sudden lateral movement, a common reaction is to jerk the wheel ALL the way to one extreme - left or right. When you realize you have turned the wheel too far, the natural tendency is to react and turn the wheel this time to the other extreme! This shift from extreme to extreme results in the car 'fish-tailing' out of control. The counter to fish-tailing is to stop accelerating and gently steer into the direction of the fish-tail until your car is stabilized... or until it reaches equilibrium.
-For all you history nerds like me - take the history of religion and philosophy during the period of reformation or enlightenment. The churches and philosophical ideas that were institutionalized and promulgated during that period were direct opposites of the previous ideas and religion that was in many senses 'forced' upon the general public. The ideas of the time shifted from one extreme - to the other. Back and Forth. I'd love to go into more detail.. but I'll spare you the snores...
Over the last few years and in an attempt to become better, the Phoenix Suns have gone through a typical cycle of pendulum adjustment.
Purple Equilibrium
Mike D'Antoni is credited with creating or making famous the Run & Gun style of play - but I think Alvin Gentry has learned the truly important part of that philosophy - you have to mold the style you play to the strengths of your players. I believe this is the true and important principle behind the Run & Gun - not so much the 7 seconds or less, not so much the "we're going to score more points than you" aspect, it is truly molding your schemes to the strengths of your players.
If this is true, the ideal or ‘equilibrium’ for the Suns is found somewhere between an extremely fast and constant offense and a standard lock down defense. This is equilibrium because of who our players are. Alvin Gentry has been quoted as saying something to this effect – that the Suns don’t need to be ‘great’ defensively, just ‘ok’, this because their offensive superiority will offset any discrepancies. This is the Suns desired equilibrium.
The Pendulum Swings
So in the glory days of D'Antoni the team was all up-tempo offense, virtually no defense. And on their end of the court the Suns defined the offensive extreme of the offense v. defense spectrum. When that plan involving the absolute absence of defense didn't work out after a few disappointing seasons (and some questionable officiating... I mean, some bad luck), the team thought they would go a different direction. So the pendulum, the ideology of the Suns moved to the other extreme and Shaq (who in his younger years [see above picture] was the NBA definition of defense, and is the quintessential center of a slow-tempo-half-court-defensively-minded stratagem) was acquired and Terry Porter was shipped in to change the philosophy of the team. IT DIDN'T WORK.
This team has gone from extreme to extreme - what they are trying to do now is find a more balanced system that exploits the talent and tendencies of their core players - Nash, Stoudemire, Richardson, Barbosa, Hill, even Dragic, and now Frye are all players who thrive in the up-tempo offense - which is to mean, if they are not playing an up-tempo style, they are not performing at their best. Shaq handicapped this harmony. Shaq and Terry porter's presence were actually a contradiction to the rest of the team, and just like our immune system reacts to an invading virus - The organization rejected them and threw them out.
So getting rid of Shaq will once again allow the Suns to return to the up-tempo offensive end of the style spectrum, the pendulum will once again swing... EXCEPT THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT than in years past.
You see, this time we have not only a core group of players who are extremely dangerous in the running game, but we also have a core group of bench contributors (and one starter - Hill) who are better defenders as well - Dudley, Amundson, Dragic, Clark, Lopez, and even TGriff. D'Antoni never had any bench contributors as valuable as the ones our current bench is composed of --- and even if he did, he wouldn't have used them. This is the difference.
This is why an 'addition by subtraction' Shaq trade argument is a valid argument. Beyond the financial reasoning and the chemistry issues - this is why it is okay we didn’t get more in return for Shaq.
This will be an amazing team this year.
Has the pendulum stopped? Is this equilibrium? I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
0 recs |
25 comments
Comments
No disagreement here, and you have the intellectualism of a liberal arts major, sir. I wonder if it’s really necessary here.
by species8473 on Oct 12, 2009 11:06 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
don't tone it down
we could use some more smarts
Mmmmm ... Guinness
by JSun on Oct 13, 2009 11:34 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pendulum
After the explanation of the theory, it comes down to saying this years team is different that the great D’Antoni teams because they have a better bench and that is the reason this team will be amazing this year.
We are missing one thing those D’Antoni teams had – Shawn Marion. He really made a difference with his rebounding, hustle, great defense, three point shooting and his ability to fill the stat sheet without having any plays called for him.
Our old guys are even older and our Western Conference foes are more loaded. I’m not as optimistic as you are.
by eagleheart on Oct 13, 2009 7:45 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Optimism for sale!
I know I nor anyone’s blog – is going to sell you on being more optimistic – but that is what I bring to the table.
Not only is our bench better – but the philosophy is different than D’Antoni’s. Gentry talks about ‘gang rebounding’ and accountability on the defensive end – better pick and roll defense with big men coming out and showing more, and closing out open shooters better – that is the real adjustment I’m talking about. The personnel we’ve brought in and drafted (or traded away) are only support for the change in style.
I think everyone misses the Matrix, he did great things for this team – but what we lost with his departure I feel we can make up for with our roster & bench.
As far as the competition goes – I agree, the West is loaded. But like I said – I think this team is better than past Suns teams and our style of play gives us a fighters chance on any given day to beat any given opponent.
by Eutychus on Oct 13, 2009 11:00 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Matrix
I waxed nostalgic when Marion threw one down off a fast break from Nowitzki at the Dallas game against the Grizz the other day (I live in Big D, so I heard/saw the Dallas broadcasters go weak in the knees). I know the Mavs have their problems, but you guys are going to hate playing them four times this year.
April 29, 2008 Total Eclipse of the Sun. Is the sky falling?
by Hawk42 on Oct 13, 2009 2:07 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Fear of Fabio
I really like what the Mavericks bring this year – they have a solid roster. As far as the West competition for the Suns goes they are probably the team I will need to bust out a whole bottle of antacids for in order to watch the game comfortably. They are one of the few teams now that I think can run with and maintain a fast pace with the Suns for the whole game.
BUT more so than the Suns – their whole roster is a lot older than ours, and they have a lot more injury prone players than we do – They have 6 guys over 30 on their squad (as opposed to our two in Nash and Hill) and 5 of those are potential starters (Tim Thomas is the sixth, but he’s out due to surgery… and Marion was listed yesterday as day-to-day with a leg injury ).
I bring this up because that is one of the biggest criticisms I have heard about the Suns is that we are too old… But the top teams in the West (Lakers, Spurs, Mavs) all have more key guys on their squad over the age of 30 than the Suns do.
So just like my optimism is predicated on the conditional factor of the Suns continued good health – ALL the other teams in the West are under the same stress and have higher odds of having a team impacting injury, including the Mavs. We saw the Spurs struggle last year because of Injury – the Hornets, same – the Rockets are done because of injury – the Jazz were plagued with bad injuries, etc.
They say "don't swim with the sharks", but I'm faster than sharks so it's not a big deal...
by Eutychus on Oct 13, 2009 3:19 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't it strange
how Marion played all the time and never got hurt or tired when he was with us, and now he’s always getting hurt? Is that kudos to our training staff, or is Shawn finally paying the price?
April 29, 2008 Total Eclipse of the Sun. Is the sky falling?
by Hawk42 on Oct 13, 2009 4:29 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
I rather say it’s Aaron Nelson kudos rather than Marion ‘paying the price’.
I don’t think it’s a coincidence players who come to phoenix praise the medical staff and credit them with ‘different’/‘unorthodox’/‘new age’ techniques.. while at the same time a lot of players who have left Phoenix and our training staff have suffered injuries like Marion.
Aaron Nelson needs something built in his honor at USAC. I vote a fountain near the entrance… a fountain of youth…
They say "don't swim with the sharks", but I'm faster than sharks so it's not a big deal...
by Eutychus on Oct 13, 2009 4:50 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
fountain of youth
HAHA that’s good, i like it.
maybe we could get BcrayZ to promote it and it’ll be sure to happen!
by bigredd1987 on Oct 14, 2009 11:21 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
No offense, but all I got out of that is that we could be better than prior 7SOL or running squads, etc because we have the potential to have an effective bench. But that doesn’t take into consideration Amare’s injuries, Nash and Hill getting older, questions surrounding J-Rich’s effectiveness, the loss of Marion, etc. This team cannot be compared with the 2005-7 versions because they are simply not the same-at all. Not to mention the Western Conference is much more competitive than it used to be.
I’d like to share your optimism that this team is or could be “amazing” but there are too many questions that need to be answered. I’m not sure what you mean by “amazing,” ie a playoff contender, a Western Conference title contender, what have you, but I would say if we are lucky enough to keep Nash, Hill and Stat healthy for a whole season we will be lucky to get a 7 or 8 seed. I don’t think that’s being pessimistic, I think it’s being realistic.
by Wil Cantrell on Oct 13, 2009 7:46 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
So Amazing
I’m glad you got something out of it Wil! I enjoy reading your blogs.
I’m thinking I didn’t make my main point clear enough – I’ll make note of that for the future. The big difference I see this year comes from three areas. Our players. Our style. Our chemistry.
Yes, we have the potential to have an effective bench – but our 5 starters are arguably more talented than we’ve had for a long time.
The style is different than prior 7SOL squads. Gang rebounding (to make up for the loss of Marion/Shaq/Thomas) – more defense, bench utilization are the three biggest adjustments from past team philosophies. I think those changes will make a big difference in the effectiveness of our style.
The chemistry and other intangibles are other important (and usually neglected) factors that contribute to teams being better than expected and going further than projected. So far – all signs point to determined effort all around and great team chemistry not only amongst players, but with the coaching staff as well.
I think we can be Western Conference title contenders. That would be amazing. There is no doubt our team is only better IF the considerations you’ve mentioned are taken for granted. My blog is a look at this year’s Suns from a theoretical point of view. What I’m saying is that the basketball philosophy this year is good – the players fit – and their intangibles so far are in order. They are the ones who will have to prove the theory valid.
If they don’t – I’ll eat my words. I have every year since I was 5. :)
I’m not a big fan of the whole – “I am a realist” argument when it comes to sports – I write about that later.
by Eutychus on Oct 13, 2009 11:28 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed, the chemistry issue is huge. I think it can potentially drive this team’s win total up from last year.
I won’t lie, I am excited to see this team play, but at the same time, my expectations are not very high. I am ready for the typical up and down type of Phoenix season with those games that give one chest pains. However, I do expect a playoff contender. Western Conference title contender? Woah there friend. The Lakers are stacked, Denver, San Antonio, Utah and Portland are still very tough. Houston may tank it without Yao and McGrady healthy, etc. The Suns would obviously have to play out of their minds all season to get to that level, and that’s without any significant injuries. I just don’t think they have it, although I hope I am wrong.
by Wil Cantrell on Oct 13, 2009 1:28 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice
Interesting stuff. Its nice to have an opinion on here that comes from an educated background. Where do you go to school?
In part I think I agree with Will. There isn’t much here that we all haven’t either already said or heard at some point. However, I do like that you did it in such a unique way. I am still “kicking the tires” a little to see if the analogy holds up. I guess I kind of want to know what the “gravity” force is in terms of the NBA. In a pendulum, the force that makes the pendulum move and eventually come to rest is gravity, but what is that force for the NBA? To put it differently, what is the “golden middle” for an NBA team? A championship? Maybe, but I suspect not. Otherwise teams would never change once they won. General success? Again maybe. But the Phx Suns history the last few years negates that. Maybe its chemistry? Chemistry is what Nash and Gentry and Kerr are all excited about this year.
I hope so..but I don’t know….
Go read a book!
by N8lol on Oct 14, 2009 8:08 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I didnt meant to imply that no one else on here had an education btw.
Go read a book!
by N8lol on Oct 14, 2009 8:08 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's a good question
I guess the driving/pulling force could be a lot of things – and only a team’s management party could probably give you an answer if they had one. It could be a championship, it could be profit, it could be to please fans (kind of like the run & gun though I believe it could also win championships), or maybe it could something as broad as the principle Nash has been preaching lately;
"We’ve just talked about playing to our potential. If we play to our potential, and unselfishly and with the effort we can, then we’ll see what it brings. We’re not predicting any wins. Our goal is playing to the highest potential we can reach."
I guess in my analogy I’m suggesting a mix of some of the above stated, but mainly that the driving force is a winning team that can take the whole cake home. Probably because that’s what I personally want.
As far as your assumption that teams would never change once they reached that equilibrium – there are a lot of mitigating factors that go into reaching a team’s equilibrium. In my blog i’ve only briefly focus on three – Personnel, Team Chemistry – and the adjusted System [run&gun2.0]. There most certainly are other contributors that help dictate whether or not a team reaches equilibrium during a season, a couple off the top of my head are other intangibles such as luck – mental health (see Delonte West a.k.a. T100), or maybe even corruption/gambling, bad refs/etc.
The point is – there are a lot of things that have to go right for a team to reach that “golden mean” – and at any given moment something could change. I think that’s why its hard to win a championship in any sport and why it wouldn’t be the soundest of logic to assume that teams would be able to keep things as they were. Just like in our daily lives and with the plans we personally make – broom handles are being thrown into our tire-spokes all the time. Just ask the Celtics – I’m sure they would have loved to keep things the same – but Garnett’s knee and James Posey said otherwise.
Great question.
I’m a senior at ASU… but I might as well be self-taught (I would have saved a boat load of cash… you though Sarver was a stickler? Let me introduce you to the definition of financially ignorant – his name is Michael Crow).
They say "don't swim with the sharks", but I'm faster than sharks so it's not a big deal...
by Eutychus on Oct 16, 2009 2:53 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I graduated from U of A, is that an education? Certainly doesn’t feel like it at times. I learn more watching an episode of “Mad Men.”
by Wil Cantrell on Oct 14, 2009 9:51 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Steve Kerr
Steve Kerr graduated from U of A and that hasn’t translated to front office genius yet.
Jerry we miss ya!
by eagleheart on Oct 15, 2009 12:22 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Let's not forget Sarver is also a U of A alum... :)
They say "don't swim with the sharks", but I'm faster than sharks so it's not a big deal...
by Eutychus on Oct 15, 2009 1:01 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
A couple of things to consider
1.) We don’t have Bell, Diaw, and Marion. Guys who contributed so much non-statistical values
2.) An older Nash
3.) The strength of the others teams in the league.
Thanks :D
by Azrael on Oct 15, 2009 1:48 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Considered
1) We have J.Rich, Dudley, Amundson, Earl Clark, and Frye. Guys who will make up for the ‘non-statistical’ and statistical value lost in Bell, Diaw, & Marion.
2) Don’t believe everything they tell you on ESPN – Everyone in the league is a year older. That’s how time works. Nash’s shooting has improved (50-40-90 again last year) as he ages and he is still the most in-shape player on the team. He wins the baseline drill every time (even against Barbosa). – I think he might have a career year if everyone stays healthy.
Also – one thing that puzzles me is how everyone says how old the Suns are… Nash and Hill are the only players in their 30’s on our roster… Even with them, our team age average is under the league average… But I get it, they expect Nash or Hill to break someday – whatever.
3) The strength of the other teams is a big concern… But it is my opinion that this current Suns roster (with a fast developing bench and a Big Void), coupled with the improved intangibles (chemistry – attitude – work ethic), and the established philosophy (Run&Gun 2.0), is a better team, by a good margin, than last year’s Phoenix Suns. So even though we didn’t go out and sign some big-money Sheed Wallace or Ron Artest – I feel we have upped our team strength an awful lot – enough to compete with every team in the west. Quote me know, but I side with Steve Kerr in believing that this team is capable of a top-4 seed in the West this year. But I’ll keep my expectations of just getting to the play-offs again front and center.
They say "don't swim with the sharks", but I'm faster than sharks so it's not a big deal...
by Eutychus on Oct 15, 2009 10:45 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
BSoS existential angst
Hello. I believe it was either my first post in this thread or my multiplicity of posts in the open thread for the Partizan Belgrade game that led to my latest run-in with the esteemed current leader (who does not accept the term “moderator”) of BSoS. Every time such a thing happens, in my mind I step back and ask myself: why am I here? why would anyone post anything on a sports forum or blog? Should I even pay close attention to the nuts and bolts of how the Phoenix Suns try to improve? Probably not.
I’ll try to find something better to do. In that spirit: I could have made this a fanpost, but knew better than that, because it’s self-absorbed and not important enough.
by species8473 on Oct 16, 2009 2:57 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Inside joke?
They say "don't swim with the sharks", but I'm faster than sharks so it's not a big deal...
by Eutychus on Oct 16, 2009 3:29 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

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