Preview: Suns vs Rockets

by Seth Pollack on Nov 17, 2009 8:36 AM MST in Phoenix Suns: Game Coverage

According to 82game.com the Rockets most frequently used line-up is Brooks-Ariza-Battier-Scola-Hayes. They are +24 and account for bulk of the team's minutes. Five solid role players and no all-stars is generally not a winning combination in the NBA and yet the Rockets are 6-4 having beat the Lakers, Trail Blazers and Jazz. Of course they also lost to the Lakers, Trail Blazers and Kings so it's not as if this team can't be beat.

With no Yao and no T-Mac they are said to be getting it done with heart and hustle but I recently heard Rockets GM Daryl Morey explain that just maybe those nobodies everyone is discounting are actually better players then people give them credit for. I buy that.

In what is starting to become the most surprising trend of the season, the Suns enter this game as the better rebounding team. The Rockets are a -3.77 while the Suns at +2.10 has the 10th best rebounding differential in the league. That tells you our team might just have a little heart and hustle as well.

If both teams bring it tonight it should be a fun match-up but one the Suns should win.

Match-ups

Guards

Aaron Brooks gave the Suns fits last season putting up 19.3 ppg which was his highest against any team in 08/09. Who can forget his 30 point, 55% FG effort against a lethargic Suns team in early March. While Aaron is a nice player who is certainly one of the quickest guys in the game with the ball he's also streaky over the past 5 games with 33 points against the Lakers coming on the heals of a combined 18 points against the Kings and Grizzlies.

Brooks might be able to beat Nash around screens and get himself open shots or into the lane but the Suns bigs have done a much better job this season helping and Steve Nash is quietly having himself a better defensive season holding opponents to an eFG% of .477 compared to .485 for last season. And since this is the Suns it's worth pointing out that his best defense remains his offense where his own eFG% is a whooping .626 (up from .566 last season).

Brooks is a nice young player but I think we can all agree that the Suns have the edge here.

Some people might be surprised that Trevor Ariza is leading the Rockets in scoring with 18.4 points per game but having watched him in LA the last couple of years the talent was always there. As Channing Frye shows, this league is all about opportunity which is why you can't only look at a guy's past numbers to predict his future value. Trevor had shown the ability to both put the ball on the floor and finish and to hit the three but in the Kobe offense he was never going to get enough touches to put up decent point totals.

Of course, he's not exactly the most efficient scorer either which has to be a concern for the Rockets. When your team's point leader is shooting 40% and taking 16 FGA's to score 18 points....not good.

Where Trevor really excels is on the defensive end which is a shame because Jason Richardson needs to have a good game coming off his sub-par shooting night against the Raptors.

The only other guard on the roster is the bowling ball shaped Kyle Lowry. I'm a fan of Lowry's game but if Barbosa has got anything going at all (his wrist was still sore after Sunday's game) he will struggle keeping up. Goran had probably the worst game of his season facing Jarret Jack's intense ball pressure. Dragic needs to be aggressive when guys get right up on him and make them pay with his size and speed.

Forwards / Centers

Lets face it. Neither of these two teams have a true Center right now but at least the Suns two bigs are much bigger than the Rockets front court.

The Scola - Amare match-up is the most interesting.

Scola is a very skilled player who defends well, leads his team in rebounding and can score the ball in multiple ways. It will be up to Amare to pay attention on both ends of the floor and try and get Scola into foul trouble. The Rockets have very little depth at any position so taking Louis out of the game would spell instant trouble.

We might also see Amare try and get into the low post against the ~~Spaniard~~ Argentinian which should draw double teams. Amare has a lot of work to do on his passing out of those traps.

Against the Raptors he didn't do a good job handling the constant doubles that came when he caught the ball after Calderon switched on him. While Frye would calmly turn and hold the ball high and find the open man, Amare danced around and ended up trying to work against two players only to fire out a sloppy pace which gave the defense time to recover. I hope he watches film on this.

I am very curious if the Suns will try and post up Frye against Chuck Hayes. Hayes is a great post defender but at only 6'6" is the smallest Center in the league by a ~~long~~ short shot. Frye does have a post game and we might see it tonight but at the same time when the Suns get out of their normal offense to take advantage of these kinds of mismatches they can get stagnant. I would rather see Phoenix run their normal pick and roll sets with Nash and then try and post up Frye with the second unit. It's not as if Frye can shoot over him from behind the arc on the pick and pop.

Amundson can handle his own in this game against Hayes or Landry so perhaps have him sub in early for Frye and then bring back Channing when Nash rests.

We can't overlook Grant Hill and Shane Battier. Two great players who really understand the game and do what their teams need. Hill after a smoking start to the season hasn't been shooting the ball all that well but he's still grabbing rebounds and facilitating. In this game these two basically cancel each other out.

And Jared Dudley...that's all that needs to be said.

Unless the Suns come out flat, this is a very winnable game given the match-ups. I do worry about the Suns getting a bit complacent with their record which I think we saw in the middle quarters of the Raptors game on Sunday. Hopefully, they will have that edge and passion that has been the hallmark of the team so far and they can get a comfortable win on the road and be the first team in the L with 10 W's.

Game Links

Suns vs Rockets coverage
The Dream Shake - SBN Blog
TSN Suns vs Rockets preview
Suns wings hauling in rebounds
Suns swingmen Grant Hill and Jason Richardson lead NBA wing tandems in total rebounds. (Great article from Coro. Anyone else notice his game stepping up this year?)
azcentral.com - Coro preview
Just like we all predicted, Atlanta and Phoenix are sitting atop the NBA. The Suns can reclaim the best record in the NBA tonight if they win and go to 10-2. If they do so, they would be the third Suns team to have a 10-2 start since Steve Nash returned in 2004.

[Note by Phoenix Stan, 11/17/09 12:29 PM MST ]

If you are feeling in anyway bitter towards Sarver and Kerr read these two articles to remind yourself how much worse it can get...

Iverson, Jackson followed path to freedom - NBA - Yahoo! Sports
Stephen Jackson and Allen Iverson never acted out of character. Blame their teams for enabling their behavior. - National Basketball Association news
RUMOR: Monta Ellis wants out of Golden State and Warriors looking to trade him - Golden State Of Mind
Monta Ellis wants out of the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors want to trade Monta Ellis. Ellis, his agent, Jeff Fried, president Robert Rowell, and GM Larry Riley will be meeting on Thursday. More dysfunction for Chris Cohan's operation.

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Comments

he’s got a cyst in his wrist and it’s too small to be removed

by kuato lives on Nov 17, 2009 9:10 AM MST reply actions

yes...that's what I've been told

he had fluid drained on Friday to help the swelling. There’s nothing “wrong” but it is bothering him

Blogging Suns Basketball . twitter: @phoenixstan

by Seth Pollack on Nov 17, 2009 9:13 AM MST up reply actions

I had the same

thing on my left wrist and it is uncomfortable for a while, until it eventually goes down. I imagine his was probably worst than mine, but he also had his drained. He’ll get back to 100% though.

by taybart13 on Nov 17, 2009 1:42 PM MST up reply actions

Chuck Hayes is a BEAST

I don’t know how successful Frye will be posting him up, but I imagine Frye will get a lot of open shot opportunities behind the arc.

Steve Nash, the league's MVP, is a longhaired Canadian who spoke out against the war in Iraq and reads The Communist Manifesto. Quentin Richardson declared after a game-winning shot that it "was like Hamlet. It was a suspense thriller, and I killed them at the end." Amare Stoudemire, when asked to comment on a 22-point third quarter against the Kings, said, "I've got a tendency to jump over some guys' heads and throw it down."

by rsavaj on Nov 17, 2009 9:45 AM MST reply actions

And watching the Jared Dudley/Shane Battier hustle battle is going to be fun

by rsavaj on Nov 17, 2009 9:46 AM MST reply actions

As regards the ROCKETS.....

I agree with you Stan. The unit you mentioned in many ways is better than the unit with McGrady and Yao. I think the key factor is McGrady, rather than Yao however. Hard to imagine that Tracy would hurt any lineup, but in this case I think what you see is a decline in defensive intensity when he is on the court.

Interesting to note that when they had their long winning streak last year that McGrady was not in the lineup. Coincidence? I think not. I don’t have the numbers in front but I am pretty sure the PPG given up were higher with T-Mac than without. It should be a tough battle tonight. Battier is a great player — very underrated. Great defender — a winner. I’d love to have him on the Suns. Who could we trade to get him? Any ideas??

by Jack Frost on Nov 17, 2009 10:20 AM MST reply actions

Boo to trades

Unless it’s to get rid of Tucker.

They say "don't swim with the sharks", but I'm faster than sharks so it's not a big deal...

by Eutychus on Nov 17, 2009 11:19 AM MST up reply actions

Agree somewhat Eutychus......

I generally don’t like trades for teams that are playing well and clicking — I think they tend to mess up the chemistry more often than not. I am a big believer in chemistry and it’s general importance to winning. That being said, I am sure someone like Battier would fit in almost wherever he went — he’s that kind of team guy. And, honestly, I wouldn’t want to give up any key pieces to get him — such as JRich, Amare etc.. This was more wishful thinking on my part;, that we could manage to pry him away without giving up alot. Probably won’t happen……

by Jack Frost on Nov 17, 2009 1:28 PM MST up reply actions

Especially when we are stacked at small forward with both Hill and Dudley and two rookies who could use minutes in that spot (though I know Clark is a tweener). With that being said – we would either have to involve Hill in a trade (not going to happen) or Dudley in a trade (probably not going to happen)… And even if a trade were to work involving a different position player how would gentry get Hill, Dudley, and Battier the minutes they need? It would be unlikely.

I do agree that Battier is a high-character guy and one of the better defenders in the NBA and would fit in anywhere on any team. But I think Hill and Dudley have a lot more upside – more athletic/energetic and they too are also high character players who play very good defense.

They say "don't swim with the sharks", but I'm faster than sharks so it's not a big deal...

by Eutychus on Nov 17, 2009 1:43 PM MST up reply actions

Not gonna lie...I'd give up Dudley for Battier

Hurts me to say it.

I feel like weeping now.

by rsavaj on Nov 17, 2009 3:22 PM MST up reply actions

And Weep You Shall!

You would give up a 24 year old who is just beginning to tap into his NBA potential and only playing for roughly 1Million… for a 31+ year old on the decline who rakes in about 7Million?

I might vehemently add that he is a 24 year old who is coming off the bench and putting up better numbers nearly across the boards than Battier who is a starter and plays more minutes. – see the comparison here!!

I wouldn’t give up D-Day for jack squat at this point. He has shown that he can do everything and will figure to be a VITAL piece to this franchise moving forward in my opinion.

They say "don't swim with the sharks", but I'm faster than sharks so it's not a big deal...

by Eutychus on Nov 17, 2009 3:51 PM MST up reply actions

I would trade Hill for Battier in a heartbeat!

You’d get the younger, more athletic, much better defender.

Problem is Houston would never do this trade.

by Jack Frost on Nov 18, 2009 8:29 AM MST up reply actions

But what would that do to our chemistry?

Battier is a stand-up guy but we’re talking about Grant Hill… the guy Kerr and Gentry visited in Orlando to persuade him to come provide leadership for this team…

They say "don't swim with the sharks", but I'm faster than sharks so it's not a big deal...

by Eutychus on Nov 18, 2009 9:30 AM MST up reply actions

Well, that's a chance I would gladly take....

Primarily because I see Hill as a liability defensively. Yes, will will hit some big shots in the 4th quarter, but Battier has shown that ability as well (esp. 3pt shots) and he is a lockdown defender.

This imaginary trade would be awesome because it would give us someone to put on Kobe when we play the Lakers. JRich did a decent job last time, but Kobe has even said publicly that Battier is the toughest defender on him.

By all reports Hill is a good guy, even a great guy, but this would be a no brainer.

The Lakers are always looking to improve (ala Artest acquisition). I think we need to have that same attitude if we want to knock them off. Kerr has to be thinking, “how can we get even better.”

That being said, even if our team stands pat I like our current mental toughness and character.

by Jack Frost on Nov 18, 2009 12:15 PM MST up reply actions

Hill as a defensive liability?

I whole-heartedly disagree that a trade would be a no brainer… and I really don’t understand how you can call Hill a liability defensively..

By no means is Hill a defensive liability… he was one of our best defenders last year and he is still one of our best defenders this year! In fact check out the advanced statistics this year for both Hill and Battier – Battier’s DRtg is only 3 points better than Hill’s when his team’s overall Offensive rating and Pace Factor are substantially lower than Phoenix’s.

Look I understand you hate the Lakers A LOT, I do too… and I’ll give you the fact that Battier is younger, and he gives Kobe fits – but the intangibles we’d lose in breaking up the Nash-Hill bond at this point would be catastrophic for this team. Say what you want about the Lakers always looking to improve – they have KOBE BRYANT, they don’t need good chemistry – Phoenix NEEDS good chemistry, it’s part of the balance they’ve built this year. Let’s not forget how upset Nash was when Raja was traded, I feel a similar sentiment would abound if Hill were to be mindlessly traded for someone who will only offer youth and marginally improved defense while giving up the offensive power and leadership (lets not forget how vital of a role Hill has played in practicing and preaching the “gang rebound” tactic for one example).

They say "don't swim with the sharks", but I'm faster than sharks so it's not a big deal...

by Eutychus on Nov 19, 2009 10:03 AM MST up reply actions

Well, I'll admit that PERHAPS this deal

would impact us negatively in ways I have not anticipated. I agree with you that chemistry is a very delicate creature; sometimes relatively minor moves (trading a backup for a backup etc) can throw things into disarray. I’ll Grant you that (pun intended!). I just feel that the ability to make things difficult on Kobe would be so important. And I see Battier as providing more than only marginally improved defense. I see him as one of the best defensive players in the League. Do you feel that way about Hill? And yes, the youth factor is a big one. Nevertheless, you make some good points.

I think you picked up on something in my thinking, namely it is motivated by this thought: “How can we beat the Lakers?” In all honesty, although the season is very young, with the team we have I feel we can beat Dallas, Utah, Portland (too young and still inexperienced) and yes, even San Antonio. I feel the real challenge would be LA. It is not just about my hate for them. It is my realistic appraisal of who is standing in our way, and what it might take to beat them. I don’t concede it as an impossibility, I’m thinking of ways to make it happen!

That being said, neither you or I are Steve Kerr so, ultimately, it is a moot point. It’s just interesting to speculate.

by Jack Frost on Nov 19, 2009 5:28 PM MST up reply actions

Agreed that it's moot

and in reality if we were expecting to be title contenders this year I bet we would have made a move specifically to address improving our chances at beating the Lakers out west – who knows – if we grab a top 4 seed and maybe the Nuggets or SA drop to a 5-8 seed we won’t have to face the Fakers in the Playoffs… Wishfully thinking anyways.

Kerr and Gentry’s off-season statement are what make this season so remarkable thus far – when asked about the direction of the team for this year they both stated that it would be a season where they would be trying to improve their abilities for next year financially all while putting a competitive team out on the floor for the fans – I don’t think they nor anyone except a few of the guys on the team expected to be in the position they are this year.

To answer your question about GHILL –
While I do consider Grant Hill a quality defender I don’t think he’s one of the best in league, he is in my opinion a great defender not because of superior athleticism as it is because of his basketball IQ. But it is true – that when you’re facing Kobe IQ doesn’t matter a whole lot – you’ve got be able to get into Kobe’s head, and I think that’s what Battier has done to Kobe more than anything. Much like Bowen – no only is was he a pesky and annoying defender but he would just get into guys like Steve’s head even before he stepped on the court.

They say "don't swim with the sharks", but I'm faster than sharks so it's not a big deal...

by Eutychus on Nov 22, 2009 10:45 PM MST up reply actions

I think Amare/Nash is just too tough of a combo for Houston to stop.

If this were a back-to-back match-up for Phoenix, then I’d give a slight edge to Houston. Given yesterday’s rest and gutty performance Sunday, I think Phoenix comes out hungry for this one.

I still think Houston’s record is better than reality. Yes, hustle and other intangibles do affect the game, but in the NBA, talent is usually the deciding factor.

by hotstuffdb22 on Nov 17, 2009 10:22 AM MST reply actions

Amare vs Scola and Landry

You might be discounting the talent and performance of both of those players. Currently Landry stands at an APER (assist adjusted PER) of 21.4, Scola is at 17.3 and Amare currently sports a 17.9 rating.
Now historically, Amare would be better than these two players by a significant margin, but at this point in the season I wouldn’t sat that’s true.
And yes, Hayes is a beast and would own Frye if he tried to post-up.
Also, Houston is 3-1 at home, with the only loss being to LA in overtime.

by PhilippeinBoston on Nov 17, 2009 10:41 AM MST reply actions

McGrady is Overrated

I’m sure this isn’t the first time this has been said, but T-Mac is overrated. He’s never been pas the first-round of the playoffs, and while his individual numbers look good, he makes other players worse due to his lack of defense and his ball-hogging. Other players tend to detach from the game when they know one player is going to dominate the ball.

by JasonEllis on Nov 17, 2009 10:57 AM MST reply actions

-1

by watdogg10 on Nov 17, 2009 2:26 PM MST up reply actions

+1

And Jared Dudley…that’s all that needs to be said.

by KnowGood on Nov 17, 2009 2:19 PM MST reply actions

Coro

(Great article from Coro. Anyone else notice his game stepping up this year?)

I think he’s finally been granted access to Aaron Nelson’s performance enhancers he gives the Suns.

Nah, seriously though – He sounds just as excited as the team about all the positive energy surrounding the organization.

They say "don't swim with the sharks", but I'm faster than sharks so it's not a big deal...

by Eutychus on Nov 17, 2009 2:34 PM MST reply actions

Coro's always been a beast

I’ve always loved Coro’s coverage of the Suns. He’s thorough. His coverage took a bit of a hit last season due to budget cuts. At one point he was on a mandatory furlough and not covering them at all. I held a candlelight vigil in his honor. Also, he’s a really nice guy if you ever meet him.

Contributor: Bright Side of the Sun Twitter: @MikeLisboa

by Mike Lisboa on Nov 17, 2009 3:48 PM MST up reply actions