Suns-Raps Rewind 2: Open vs. Contested Looks for the Raptors
At the end of the Suns-Raptors game on Sunday, I had two burning questions:
1) How did Amar'e Stoudemire end up with 7 whole rebounds after taking what appeared to be most of the game off? (Answer: He didn't.)
2) How did the Suns hold Toronto to 39.1% shooting despite not playing apparently lockdown defense?
The short answer is that the Suns truly, madly, deeply believed they would out-shoot the Raptors and did.
My methodology was pretty simple. I watched every Toronto possession to see how many open shots the Suns "gave" them versus how many shots the Suns contested. In order to qualify as "contested" a defender had to be close enough and have his hands up to apparently affect the shot. Admittedly, it's a little subjective, but I don't claim to be a basketbologist, so take it for what it's worth. Also, despite comparing my shot list to the official play-by-play, the numbers don't quite match-up, but they're close enough for comparison purposes.
The Raw Numbers
- I tracked 89 total shots for Toronto. They made 37 for a shooting percentage of 42%.
- Of those 89, 38 were contested by a defender, 51 were not.
- On contested shots, Toronto made 9 of 38 field goals for a contested FG% of 23.6%. (Go Suns Defense!)
The Story Behind the Numbers
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As you can see, the Suns were pretty content to give up open shots outside of the paint (contesting only 27.2% of those shots versus 50% inside 15'). Some of those open jumpers were the result of screens, but most of them were as a result of a Suns defender sagging off their man (usually a guard, but occasionally it was a big giving Bosh some space) to help in the paint. It's hardly rocket science, but it makes sense for the Suns, particularly with their lack of size, to cheat towards preventing higher percentage shots at the expense of allowing lower percentage ones.
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However, blame for a lot of the Raptors poor offense lies with the Raptors. The Toronto Raptors, 38.1% 3-point shooters on the year, shot 7.1% on wide open opportunities from behind the arc. That's some awful, awful shooting on undefended shots. If Toronto shoots their season average from distance, this is a much different ball game.
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To be fair, I am not an X's and O's guy and I don't know how far this kind of analysis goes toward quantifying a defense (in one game, no less) as good, bad or otherwise. However, I think it's not inaccurate to say that allowing 14 open 3-pointers to a good 3-point shooting club (6th in the NBA) is probably pretty sub-par.
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The Best Defense is a Good Offense
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It's at this point that I feel obligate to point out how crazily efficient the Suns offense is. The Suns are ranked 1st in offensive efficiency, averaging 114.0 points per 100 possessions. That's 4 points better than the 2nd ranked Nuggets (110.0). To find a team that the Nuggets are 4 points better than, you have to go all the way down to the 13th ranked Rockets (104.5). The same goes for Eff FG% (which combines and weighs 2 and 3 point FG%), where the 1st ranked Suns (57.1%) are better than the 2nd ranked Celtics (53.5%) by a greater margin than separates the Celtics and the 13th ranked Lakers.
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In terms of offense, the Suns are in a class all by themselves so far this season. Their defense can afford to be below average because their offense, thus far, has been so much better than anyone else's. The Suns dare opponents to out-shoot them because thus far, no one has been able to come even close. As the Suns head into a difficult stretch of schedule against high quality opponents, it bears watching to see if the team can maintain this level of offensive dominance or if they'll have to improve their defense to remain competitive with the NBA's upper echelon.
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Comments
Great stuff!
that had to be very time consuming! Thanks for the in depth information!
by dontTradeAaronNelson! on Dec 1, 2009 4:04 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Nice work once again Mike -
Those Bedger writers better watch their backs… lol
They say "don't swim with the sharks", but I'm faster than sharks so it's not a big deal...
by Eutychus on Dec 1, 2009 4:07 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Dude
I’m not even on the same court as Ben and Dave. Those guys are legit. But thanks for the compliment!
Contributor: Bright Side of the Sun Twitter: @MikeLisboa
by Mike Lisboa on Dec 1, 2009 4:18 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
We could top them easily
by providing some sick still-shot jpgs of the defensive set ups or whatnot like Stan was alluding to in a different post – I am usually in awe of Ben and Dave at the edge, but I don’t know if I’ve ever finished an entire article before resorting to speed-reading/skimming tactics – sometimes it’s a little much.
Your two in-depth ‘rewinds’ have been specific and concise – great reads all around, the rewind #1 was the first 9 rec article I’ve seen since i joined earlier this year, to me that says something. I wish I had time to contribute great break-downs like that! Keep it up
They say "don't swim with the sharks", but I'm faster than sharks so it's not a big deal...
by Eutychus on Dec 1, 2009 4:30 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks...
…and you can thank Phoenix Stan for the conciseness of the pieces. He gave me that note when he was sneaking peeks at my draft of the Amare article.
Contributor: Bright Side of the Sun Twitter: @MikeLisboa
by Mike Lisboa on Dec 1, 2009 4:33 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Defense
Yup very nice article above .. easier to understand than the usual stat-heavy sites.
With the Suns offense so efficient do we have to worry that the players will start thinking they can get away with just that (kinda like 2004-05) and get into trouble when the playoffs begin? Earlier this season when the offense was not yet on full gear i remember they won some games on the defensive end. Dont get me wrong i love their offense and really enjoy watching these Suns but i hope they keep on working on their defense. Hope the bench can inspire Amare , Frye on defense. Richardson seems to be doing OK and you can always count on Nash/ Hill to give it all they’ve got
by toto_l2003 on Dec 1, 2009 5:53 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Bench vs. starters
What might be really interesting is to break this down even further. Divide this stat amongst starters vs bench players. I cant’ even imagine how much work this too, and then to break it down even further wold be crazy. I have noticed that the games we have lost this year have been we have just not brought our intensity, and 3 out of 4 of those have been blowouts. Houston didn’t shoot very well which is what kept us close in that game. There have just been nights we don’t look like we want it. Most of the time our shooting has won those games, but if we are off then it doesn’t look good. I do like, however, that we have won all the close games, excluding the Houston game. We have “gutted out” some big games this year, especially the Boston game. Why do you guys think that our losses seem to be blowouts, while a majority of our wins seem to be close (at least until recently)? Is it a lack of defense, discipline, intensity?
P.S. I wanted to point something out. Yes, we give up 46% shooting, but we shoot over 50%. That is a plus 4% in shooting and the adjusted is even more. The top defensive field goal percentage teams give up about 42-43%, but they only shoot 46-47% themselves. Isn’t this the same difference in %. The only exception might be the celtics.
by Suns Fan For Life on Dec 2, 2009 6:27 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

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