Game Preview - Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets

by Mike Lisboa on Dec 12, 2009 12:29 PM MST in Phoenix Suns: Game Coverage

There is absolutely no way this game ends well for the Phoenix Suns. Whatever your bar is for the Suns' performance in this game, lower it. I'm eschewing the typical "match-up" format for this preview in favor of bullet points, because while the Suns may have an edge here or there with regards to personnel, none of that has mattered so far on Second Nights.

I know that's not very Bright Side of me, but the deck is stacked heavily against the Suns tonight:

Denver is ranked 3rd in offensive efficiency. The Suns are ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency.
The Suns are on the second night of a back-to-back. They are 1-4 in these games, 0-4 against teams with a winning percentage higher than .217.
On second night games, ALL the Suns starters shoot notably worse except for one: Steve Nash. He actually has higher FG and 3PT percentages on the wrong side of back-to-backs than his season averages. His overall totals are down in these games, but so are his minutes as they've generally ended in blow-outs. Could Steve Nash be any more amazing?

Also, when the other 4 starters are not shooting well, that means fewer assists for Nash, which means he's reduced to being a scorer, which he does more than competently. At some point, Robin Williams is going to show up and hug Nash and tell him, "It's not your fault (unless your man went for a career-high again)."

The Nuggets are 1 of only 3 teams that plays at a faster pace than the Suns, so there is no "running these guys off the court." Oh yes, the game also takes place a mile above sea level. Winded won't even begin to cover how Phoenix will feel come the second half.

Guard play: As awesome as Chauncey Billups vs. Steve Nash sounds on paper, I doubt we'll see it very often. I expect we'll see lots of J-Rich on Billups (who is tough cover for Nash) and vice versa while the Nuggets continue the trend of putting longer defenders on Nash in the form of Arron "I'd Like To Buy A Vowel" Afflalo.

Guard play, part 2: The Suns badly need Jason Richardson to shake off his Second Night slumping if they hope to have a prayer in this game. His shooting percentage drops from .485 to .385 on Second Nights.

Guard play, part 3: Goran Dragic against Ty Lawson could be really, really fun if Dragon Frosty shows up. However, if it's Tragic Frosty, he will find himself in a couple of posters before the night is through. I have a hunch Dragon Frosty will be making an appearance tonight (though Dragon Frosty runs the risk of melting himself, so I don't really know how that works in the grand scheme of things).

Ditto Channing Frye whose 3PT percentage drops from .435 to .300 on Second Nights. If he's not hitting, that frees up Nene, Chris Andersen, and/or Kenyon Martin to stay in and protect the paint. It's an offensive double whammy for the Suns as it hurts both their perimeter and inside games when he is missing.

Jared Dudley and Grant Hill will have their hands full with Carmelo Anthony. And by "full" I mean "no one else has been able to guard him this season and I don't see that trend magically ending tonight." Carmelo has been downright Kobe-like in his ability to score from anywhere inside of half-court this season.

Amare Stoudemire has to get it going on down low, which is a tall order against Martin, Birdman and Nene. The Nuggets get more free throws per field goal attempt than any team in the NBA. A healthy dose of Amar'e And-1s would help things considerably tonight.

Unless the Suns suddenly start closing out on shooters, I can see J.R. "My Name Is Isn't Earl" Smith going to town on Phoenix tonight. Again.

The one true Bright Side I foresee going into this game is that since the Nuggets are a faster team than the Suns' more recent opponents, I expect to see heavier minutes for Lou Amundson and "My Name Really Is Earl" Clark. If 'Melo gets it going early, Gentry might give Earl a whirl on the Denver's scoring machine. And we all know how much Nene likes playing against Looooooooouuuuuuuu.

Predictions

This game has blow out written all over it. The Suns remaining competitive for more than 2 quarters, much less winning this game, flies in the face of everything we've seen from them so far this season. For the Suns to win, they have to somehow find that crazy offensive rhythm they had through the first 17 games of the season and Denver has to be commensurately ice cold from the field. A Suns victory isn't impossible tonight, just highly improbable. But that's why they play the games, eh? Denver wins 122-100 and the Suns get a moral taco victory.

P.S. - I have no problem being wrong about all of the above and the Suns pulling one out tonight.

[Note by Mike Lisboa, 12/12/09 11:55 AM PST ]

It's unfortunate this is a Second Night game, because with both teams well-rested, this match-up has the potential to be a fast-paced yet nasty shoot-out. Fortunately, the next couple of times these two teams it will be after a day or two's rest.

Game Links

Check out the view from a Mile High over at Denver Stiffs.

Suns vs Nuggets coverage

Suns vs Nuggets preview

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Comments

There is absolutely no way this game ends well for the Phoenix Suns.

Concur. I think we’ll be chalking this up as another road B2B loss to a very good opponent.

I guess I can live with that since I am still enjoying the win last night. Great perserverance and character to beat a tough Orlando squad that wouldn’t back down.

by Jack Frost on Dec 12, 2009 12:33 PM MST reply actions

I'll add that I hope we can stay within 12-13 pts....

I don’t want to see another 20 pt. or God forbid a 30 pt loss….

by Jack Frost on Dec 12, 2009 12:35 PM MST reply actions

Me too.

But realistically, if this one stays competitive into the 4th quarter, I think you, me, and anyone who follows the NBA will be stunned.

Contributor: Bright Side of the Sun Twitter: @MikeLisboa

by Mike Lisboa on Dec 12, 2009 12:54 PM MST up reply actions

We're pretty much screwed.

But let’s try our best!

Unless the Suns suddenly start closing out on shooters

Doubtful man…that’s been a big problem for us throughout the Nash era.

Steve Nash, the league's MVP, is a longhaired Canadian who spoke out against the war in Iraq and reads The Communist Manifesto. Quentin Richardson declared after a game-winning shot that it "was like Hamlet. It was a suspense thriller, and I killed them at the end." Amare Stoudemire, when asked to comment on a 22-point third quarter against the Kings, said, "I've got a tendency to jump over some guys' heads and throw it down."

by rsavaj on Dec 12, 2009 1:39 PM MST reply actions

Nice game last night guys

Nugs fan here, but let me say that I am also a Phoenix fan as well. I just wanted to say that was a great game last night, and I LOVED the dunk Amare had on Dwight to top in all off. Amare and Nash are the most exciting combo in the league if you ask me, I just wish we could see both of these teams square off on better terms (ie: you guys not playing a back-to-back). Still, as much as the stats are against you guys, don’t be totally discouraged. The Nuggets are an enigma to many fans right now. Some nights, they can show up and run the Lakers out of the building, the next night they can drop an atrocious loss to a 1-15 Minnesota Timberwolves. Still, b2bs are never easy and I do look for the Nugs to win this one. Good luck this season though, you guys are by far the most exciting team to watch in the NBA, imo, and this is coming from a Nugs fan…

by GoldenNugget on Dec 12, 2009 1:56 PM MST reply actions

Thanks!

I’ll also have to admit…I have a little bit of a man crush on Melo. This dates back to last year sometime (not sure when), but it’s there. This year he’s been absolutely killing it.

And, have no fear, we’ll be squaring off on “better terms”, as you put it, soon enough. We play you what, 3, 4 times?

Bright Side of the Sun, where Suns basketball never looked so good.

by Trevor Paxton on Dec 12, 2009 2:44 PM MST up reply actions

Another Nugs fan here

I can’t help but like the Suns nasty swagger this year. Growing up in San Diego the first NBA game I ever attended was a Suns game and I can’t not root for my man Jared Dudley from Horizon. This team is playing hard and killing it right now. Not all of us are sleeping on the Suns this year, good luck fellas

by runningdonut on Dec 12, 2009 3:30 PM MST reply actions

I predict Denver wins but not not a blowout...

I predict that it will stay close the first three quarters, but in the 4th we’ll lose our steam and Denver will go on a huge run…which is ok. I’m OK with losing this one. If it happens to be an early blowout, I would love to see our bench guys getting a lot of minutes…this is going to pay off huge come April when we have an experienced bench that knows how to play against good teams.

Do you guys think the Suns would be considered an elite team? We’ve beaten both Orlando and Boston this year….had a close game against Dallas, but then got blown out by Cleveland, Orlando, and LA, twice. All of those blowouts coming off of back-to-backs. Probably too early to tell…but we are the only team in the league with a perfect home record!!

I feel confident this season…especially later in the year when we aren’t playing so many back-to-backs, and the away/home ratio evens out. Plus, guys like Dudley, Lou, and Dragic are going to be very experienced bench players used to playing big minutes against top teams.

I think we’ll split the series with Denver this year…if we got ‘em 3 times, I’ll say Denver 3-1, if it’s 4 times, I think 2-2.

by DaMax85 on Dec 12, 2009 4:00 PM MST reply actions

I'd consider us on the second tier.

I think the only really ELITE teams this year would be Los Angeles, Boston, Orlando, and Atlanta (when they believe in themselves).

Bright Side of the Sun, where Suns basketball never looked so good.

by Trevor Paxton on Dec 12, 2009 4:03 PM MST up reply actions

I'd love to find a way to disagree with you Mike...

But I can’t. 40 minutes for Nash last night = ugh tonight.

http://seasonsofdiscontent.com/

by Scott Howard on Dec 12, 2009 4:07 PM MST reply actions

I'd love to disagree with myself.

It bums me out that the general consensus is that this is an “acceptable” loss, but it’s also hard to argue with the logic. I told Phoenix Stan earlier that the Suns winning this came would be the basketball equivalent of Jesus turning water into wine. I stand by that statement as it doubles as a nice headline for my re-cap if they do win.

Contributor: Bright Side of the Sun Twitter: @MikeLisboa

by Mike Lisboa on Dec 12, 2009 4:52 PM MST up reply actions

Strange

I was thinking it wold be nice to think that this team could win on back to back missisons like tonight.

Here is where we miss Leandro. Here is where we miss a serviceable Lopez, a dependable Tucker, an unflappable Dragic, and an Earl Clark who has more than a clue what to do out there.

Blogging Suns Basketball. Twitter: @willcantrellphx

by Wil Cantrell on Dec 12, 2009 5:31 PM MST up reply actions

I dunno...

but i smell something good in this game, namely due to the fact that no on expect to win this one and they would play lose and pressure-free…

by paulimer on Dec 12, 2009 6:15 PM MST reply actions

I hope you are right

if we win ths game it’s going to be a great bonus.

"Basketball doesn't build character. It reveals it"

by PanamaSun on Dec 12, 2009 7:03 PM MST up reply actions

I think this game is going to be closer than expected

in fact the Suns will probably go up big in the first half but not have the energy to sustain. I am worried about turn overs and for some reason have a feeling the refs are going to influence the outcome in a bad way for the Suns

Blogging Suns Basketball . twitter: @phoenixstan

by Seth Pollack on Dec 13, 2009 3:19 PM MST reply actions 1 recs