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Around SBN: The Worst Team Ever Projected?

25 Games In: Who are the Phoenix Suns?

Alvin Gentry and the Suns coaching staff have reason to be happy with their team's performance after 25 games. (Photo by Max Simbron)

When the Suns jumped out to a hot start coach Alvin Gentry preached patience saying that he will 'know what he's got' when the team has 20 or 25 games under their belt.

Tuesday's win over the Spurs was the 25th game of the Suns' season and the team is now 17 and 8 with a .680 winning percentage. That projects out to a 56 win season.

Asked in his post-game press conference to asses the Suns after 25 games, Gentry joked that he was still not ready to say, "I'm going with 40 now. I'm changing it to 40, alright."

He went on to talk about every aspect of the team's performance, "I think we're pretty solid defensively in what we're doing. I think we're a good offensive team but we have to have an open floor game. We can't get into half court situations where we're walking it up. And I think we still struggle a little bit rebounding-wise but on some nights like tonight we're able to athletically compete with them if not size-wise."

In that statement Coach Gentry talked about the three major aspects of the game: offense, defense and rebounding. Let's see how the numbers break out.

Star-divide

Offense

Lead once again by a motivated, happy and obviously healthy Steve Nash, the Suns offense is setting the standard.

Phoenix leads the league in eFG% at .552 and coming off a stretch of sub-par offensive games is only .6 behind Atlanta for the best ORtg at 114 points per 100 possessions. 

The Suns offense is based on quick pick and rolls that Nash likes to run with either Stoudemire or Frye early in the shot clock. With shooters like Frye and Richardson spacing the floor, Nash and Stoudemire have found plenty of room to work in the lane forcing teams to being help from the wings which leaves wide open shooters. As a result, the Suns are 1st in the league at .433 3P%. The Suns are 4th in the league in 3PA at 22.3 per game which is well behind the Magic who lead the league at 28.5 /gm which demonstrates that the Suns aren't overly dependent on outside shooting.

The Suns second option offensively typically is a simple curl play designed for either Richardson or Hill to loop baseline and use a screen set by Amare to free up curling to the basket. This basic play almost always nets an open pull-up jump shot or a good look at the rim.

The Suns rarely post up but they do often isolate Amare at the elbow and when the clock is running down either Hill or Richardson can find the ball in their hands with the opportunity to create.

When the offense isn't firing it has less to do with missing threes than the tempo and passing. Nash calls this an issue with 'mentality' where the team will become hesitant and indecisive. It is pretty easy to see when the offense is on and when it's not. When it's not the Suns end up with a lot of contested isolation plays at the end of the clock which follow quite a bit of standing around.

The big plus for the Suns offense is the development of the bench. When Nash is on the floor the Suns are a +77 in net points but are still a net +2 when he's off. In other words, the bench is holding serve while Nash is resting where as in years past we saw leads given up or deficits worsened.

The Nash-centric offense is obviously a concern for two reasons. If Nash were to be injured the team would clearly suffer but the same could be said for the loss any great player. The bigger worry is that Nash will either wear down as the season progresses or teams will find ways in the playoffs to neutralize him like the Spurs have done in the past.

Defense

Defensively, the Suns are a confusing team. They rank in the middle of the pack as far as opponents' eFG% right at .500 but are down to 27th in DRtg giving up 110.7 points per 100 possessions.

I am beginning to question the effectiveness of that statistic for a team like the Suns. We saw the same defensive profile with the Mercury this season where they were average in opponents FG% but last in DRtg. What you see with both teams is the ability to play defense and especially late in games. Neither team looks as bad on defense as that number seems to indicate and yet I can't (yet) argue with the statistic.

Regardless, the Suns are improved defensively on the pick and roll and most nights have benefited from their simplified schemes and rotations. Big post players will still have their way with the Suns but fortunately, there just aren't that many of those around these days so Frye and Amare have been able to do an adequate job in the paint.

On the wings, Hill is still solid and both Nash and Richardson look improved. The pick and roll defense has become very predictable which is both a good thing and a bad thing. Players are not confused about their assignments and the accountability has been an added plus but at the same time the better teams have been able to exploit the hard shows by the Suns big men.

The Spurs Parker and Duncan ran a side pick and roll with the other three players spaced way out including Bonner, Ginobili and another shooter. When Amare showed on the screen to stop Parker's penetration Duncan was able to roll uncontested to the rim forcing a guard to come over and provide help. This play lead to many of Duncan's 34 points.

At some point the Suns defense is going to have to learn how to adjust to in game situations and mix up their coverages. Especially come playoff time. In the meantime the effort is there and the Suns have yet to blow a fourth quarter lead which is a great sign of a team that is getting stops when it needs them.

Rebounding

The Suns rebounding has not been a big factor this season. The games where the Suns have gotten killed on the glass generally have been games they were going to lose anyway. In the hard-fought, well rested competitive contests the Suns have done pretty good.

Overall, the Suns have a -1.6 rebounding differential which is 25th in the league but that ranking is somewhat skewed since there are 15 teams within 2 rebounds of Phoenix. Meaning if the Suns were a +1.6 they would be 10th in the league. Going the other way however, there is a huge drop off between the Suns and the five worst rebounding teams.

Even more encouraging is the defensive rebounding ranking where the Suns are 12th overall. They are always going to struggle on the offensive glass based on the way the floor is spread but if they are keeping teams from getting too many second chance opportunities the Suns will continue to do well.

Amare is at 8 rebounds per game on the season which is .9 below his career average. He has been more consistently active and as his physical condition is improving we are not only seeing more classic Amare dunks but his rebounding numbers have increased as well.

After averaging 7.1 rpg in November, Amare is now up to 10.4 per game in December. Certainly a positive sign.

Intangibles

Since pre-season I've been impressed with this team's toughness and winning attitude. Coming off last season's miserable collective mood it has been quite the improvement and probably the single biggest factor to the good start.

Coach Gentry is impressed as well, "I think we're a gritty team. I think we'll compete and play hard. It doesn't always work out for us but the thing about this team is that we've had some tough losses but these guys, I think they have resolve and they'll bounce back and play hard in practice the next day and in games the next day. I think that's all you can ask for. As a coach that's all I ask for."

We agree Alvin. As fans that's all we can ask for as well and to me this is the biggest reason the Suns are the Most Watchable Team this season so far.

Overall, Gentry refused to say if the Suns were at the top of the 2nd tier of Western Conference teams but he did say this, "I just think we compete and we feel like we can play against the majority of the teams in the league."

 

Audio: Gentry talking about where the Suns are

Comment 35 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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Certainly an encouraging start

something else encouraging when you look at our loses. There seems to be three kinds of games that we lose ( in a thankfully small sample size ):

 Close Ones: (2) Both the Dallas and the Denver games came down to the last couple of possessions and we easily could have closed them out. I would fully expect us to have a much better showing the next time we meet these teams.

 WTF’s: (2) Both the Hornets and Knicks were Gentry’s so called trap games where the boys were probably overlooking their oppoentent and took one on the chin as the other teams jumped on us from the start. We certainly aren’t the only team guilty of overlooking inferior oppoentents, as can be seen from many of the other elite teams.

Back to Backbreakers: (5) ( counting the denver loss here also ). Not much needs to be said here except that although every team must deal with b2b’s, not every team is equally affected by them. Younger teams obviously are better able to cope with the workload, as are slower tempo teams and teams with more developed benches. Our particular team, filled with senior citizens as it is, just happens to be more vulnerable to this particular obstacle.

 Having said that, if 6 of our 8 losses come to crappy teams or on back to backs, I say that’s damn good news..why? because neither of these things appear in the playoffs. As for the close ones, we have several close wins under our belts already, so I think our ability to close the deal if not in question…sure those 2 extra wins would have been great, but if this is the trend going into the rest of the season, then things do indeed look bright on planet orange…

 

by Fritzy on Dec 16, 2009 4:31 PM MST reply actions  

I think...

That we’re certainly a capable, well rounded, and dangerous basketball team. We’re not top tier because we simply don’t have a young dominating player. We’ve got Steve Nash though, and that makes the difference. Without him we’d be a pretty bad team, but not the worst in the NBA. Why? Because we’ve got a pretty good youth movement in Phoenix. We’re lacking that young dominating player, but we seem to have everything else.

I think we can beat anyone consistently who isn’t the Celtics or Lakers, and we could certainly surprise Orlando, and maybe the Celtics and Lakers. Everyone else better watch out. If we get the second seed in the west, we could very well meet the Lakers in the conference finals, and if the Lakers get knocked out before that, then we could be in The Finals. I’m not saying it’ll happen, but I’m confident it’s possible. We’ve got to get better as the season goes on, working out the kinks, staying healthy for a playoff run, and keeping the team’s attitude right on track for dominance.

Fanaticism is not logical

by SunDolphin on Dec 16, 2009 4:37 PM MST reply actions  

We’re not top tier because we simply don’t have a young dominating player

FROSTY!!

They say "don't swim with the sharks", but I'm faster than sharks so it's not a big deal...

by Eutychus on Dec 17, 2009 9:34 AM MST up reply actions  

Can You Tell the Difference? .... EXACTLY - I didn't think so.

They say "don't swim with the sharks", but I'm faster than sharks so it's not a big deal...

by Eutychus on Dec 17, 2009 2:27 PM MST up reply actions   1 recs

It’s a nickname Stan came up with a few game threads ago that stuck – probably has more to do with him being cool and frosty white rather than beastly like the above pictured ferociously abominable snow-man.

They say "don't swim with the sharks", but I'm faster than sharks so it's not a big deal...

by Eutychus on Dec 17, 2009 2:31 PM MST up reply actions  

^grammar fail

*ferocious, no -ly

They say "don't swim with the sharks", but I'm faster than sharks so it's not a big deal...

by Eutychus on Dec 17, 2009 2:32 PM MST up reply actions  

I love Dragic, and I supported him even when there was much selling to do

But I wouldn’t put him in the same boat as Kobe, Lebron, Howard, Wade, Durant, Garnett, or…I’m sure I’m forgetting someone.

Fanaticism is not logical

by SunDolphin on Dec 17, 2009 4:29 PM MST up reply actions  

... so he can't have a cool nickname?

They say "don't swim with the sharks", but I'm faster than sharks so it's not a big deal...

by Eutychus on Dec 18, 2009 8:53 AM MST up reply actions  

today is extremely slow

and with all the free online picture editing sites it really only takes a couple minutes.

They say "don't swim with the sharks", but I'm faster than sharks so it's not a big deal...

by Eutychus on Dec 17, 2009 3:17 PM MST up reply actions  

Clark

I still think at some point this season we are going to need Clark. I am disappointed so far that he’s not given more.

If he “finds it” like Dragic did late in the season he has the potential to have a huge impact. Not likely but possible.

Blogging Suns Basketball . twitter: @phoenixstan

by Seth Pollack on Dec 16, 2009 4:58 PM MST reply actions  

yes...

the key for us to go up vs the Lakers will be the ability to defend above our size, and if you believe, as I do, that Earl is, or will be, Marion-like in his ability to defend bigger players, without sacrificing our speed, or too much of our offense, then he will be the key player, in that regard.

"True glory consists of doing what deserves to be written, and writing what deserves to be read".

by Pliny the Elder on Dec 16, 2009 7:20 PM MST up reply actions  

Clark and Lopez will need to step it up later on

Lopez is a foul magnet. If Channing Frye didn’t start nailing threes, the Suns would have a big man problem on their hands.

Well, actually, against guys like Dwight Howard they do
But the Suns are definitely Western Conference Elite.

"Left hand, right hand, it doesn't matter. I'm amphibious." - Charles Shackleford
"If the NBA were on channel 5 and a bunch of frogs making love were on channel 4, I'd watch the frogs, even if they were coming in fuzzy." - Bobby Knight
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew

by LACK on Dec 17, 2009 7:47 AM MST up reply actions  

Wow Stan...

Proof read much? j/k…but seriously…

Go read a book!

by N8lol on Dec 16, 2009 7:31 PM MST reply actions  

...

as soon as i find out what “naver” means I will come up with a crushing reply…one sec…

Go read a book!

by N8lol on Dec 16, 2009 7:37 PM MST up reply actions  

Excellent Analysis

Awesome work Stan.

And I’m agreement with most of these comments.

I think we have X-Factors in Dragic, Dudley and Clark.

I think Clark, with more time on the floor could be an important shut down defender. His shot is not there and probably won’t be for a year or two. Dragic is certainly not pooping the bed. His shot is coming along, and most evenings he plays with energy and confidence, which is vital with Nash on the bench. Dudley can get better. His 3-pt shot has made many strides, but he can be even more effective with a midrange jumper and ball handling. You add those two and a healthy Barbosa and our second unit is pretty effective. I really like what I see from Amundson of late. If he gets the minutes he can be a double double guy with his improved offensive game.

I don’t want to get too high on this team, but I think over an 82 game season whereby Nash and Hill get tired, maybe miss 2-5 games with back or ankle injuries, J-Rich loses focus or gets tired (which he shouldn’t), Amare goes into a funk, the bench becomes very, very important in sustaining us.

Blogging Suns Basketball. Twitter: @willcantrellphx

by Wil Cantrell on Dec 16, 2009 9:17 PM MST reply actions  

I'm going to disagree on Dudley

When you say he can get better …

I think he can get better at what he does well, but I’d be pretty shocked to see him blossom into an all-around player with a great handle and pull-up/curling mid-range jumper. I thought I saw an interview with him where he agreed he’s a spot-up shooter. He’s development will be on improving that which he is already doing — not in adding facets to his game.

Mmmmm ... Guinness

by JSun on Dec 17, 2009 1:00 PM MST up reply actions  

He added his improved tre shooting ability this offseason

What makes you conclude he couldn’t add an improved curling or mid-range game? He’s still young.

They say "don't swim with the sharks", but I'm faster than sharks so it's not a big deal...

by Eutychus on Dec 17, 2009 1:45 PM MST up reply actions  

I suppose I didn't Convince you

With one of my two glowing pieces on Dudley. My point in the last one was that Dudley has improved not only every year at the game, but at every level. I’m not saying he has the natural LeBronesque athleticism to do anything, but I see nothing stopping him from adding a piece or two. I just chose those two areas because it doesn’t seem to be strong points. However, I think the evidence is there that this guy can still get better.

Blogging Suns Basketball. Twitter: @willcantrellphx

by Wil Cantrell on Dec 17, 2009 3:10 PM MST up reply actions  

Defense

I still am troubled by the Suns defense. If their shot isn’t falling, they’re not winning. I’d like to see their efficiency climb just a smidge more because they are already demonstrating that they can’t keep up their insane offensive execution.

Oh, and where was the section on “getting your feet behind the 3 point line?” Literally, that could have won them the Denver game and added a 5 point cushion last night (at least it felt like 5. I didn’t actually keep track).

Contributor: Bright Side of the Sun Twitter: @MikeLisboa

by Mike Lisboa on Dec 16, 2009 11:33 PM MST reply actions  

I was thinking about this

after it happened to Frye again on Tuesday

In the corner there really is very little room between the sideline and the arc. We see guys step out of bounds often so that one is tight and Channing has size 18 feet so that’s not much room for error

Up top (and obviously on the side too) its a matter of rhythm. How many times have we seen guys take too much time to think about the shot and miss. Sure, he should set up outside the line but coming of setting a screen and then catching, setting and shooting…tough one

Blogging Suns Basketball . twitter: @phoenixstan

by Seth Pollack on Dec 17, 2009 8:30 AM MST up reply actions  

Kerr blew it

Signing a guy with size 18 feet. Just stupid, stupid, stupid.

Blogging Suns Basketball. Twitter: @willcantrellphx

by Wil Cantrell on Dec 17, 2009 9:01 AM MST up reply actions  

+1

They say "don't swim with the sharks", but I'm faster than sharks so it's not a big deal...

by Eutychus on Dec 17, 2009 9:38 AM MST up reply actions  

maybe the Suns

should just unilaterally wide the court at USAC. If they added 6 extra inches on both sides do you think anyone would really notice?

Blogging Suns Basketball . twitter: @phoenixstan

by Seth Pollack on Dec 17, 2009 10:18 AM MST up reply actions  

Now that's what I'm talking about

A real home-court advantage

They say "don't swim with the sharks", but I'm faster than sharks so it's not a big deal...

by Eutychus on Dec 17, 2009 10:49 AM MST up reply actions  

I'm just saying...

…that’s a mental lapse. Know where your toes are when you set. If everyone else can do it, so can the Suns.

Contributor: Bright Side of the Sun Twitter: @MikeLisboa

by Mike Lisboa on Dec 18, 2009 12:06 AM MST up reply actions  

25 games in

first of all the Suns should be 3 GB not 3.5 GB in the division standings after the Lakers/Bucks game JK. But seriously I’m impressed with the bench. Dudley, Amundson, Dragic and LB when healthy. The bench used to give away leads when Nash goes to the bench but now for the most part they do a great job of sustaining leads. I know the team blew leads against Denver and San Antonio but I think they can do well in that area because that was a brutal 25 games. I think Channing said it best when he said that the schedule is weird in a sense that it’s like road, road, road, road, home, road, road and so on. GO SUNS

by phxsuns on Dec 17, 2009 12:15 AM MST reply actions  

Don't forget the

Lakers/Heat game where Kobe drains the miracle bomb… but we’ve all come to expect that from the fetcher.

They say "don't swim with the sharks", but I'm faster than sharks so it's not a big deal...

by Eutychus on Dec 17, 2009 9:38 AM MST up reply actions  

So where do we actually stand...

Even with the lower level of ball we’re playing right now, at this stage there are only two teams you could say are head and shoulders ahead of us, wrt a 7 game series, and that would be the Lakers and the Celtics, despite our win in Boston, and the inherent disadvantages due to schedule we’ve had vs the Lakers. It looks like at this time, we’re pretty evenly matched with the other top-tier teams.

Bear in mind that we’ve suffered some injuries to this squad, and as a young team, we still haven’t clicked the way more seasoned teams have done. So there’s still some room to improve, imho, for this team, particularly wrt on the floor communication, and generally our ability to sync. This team is going through a typical learning curve, where you start off well, and then drop off as you learn to do more complicated things, until it all falls into place, and you start to play at a higher level. Right now, we’re in that middle part, I’m sure.

So, as I’ve said before, I expect things to start jelling around the all-star break, and for us to then start to play at a much higher level than anything we’ve seen from this team, so far this season.

When that happens, and if the Lakers should suffer an injury to Bynum or Gasol, or the Celtics to Garnett or Pierce, then I like our chances against either of those two teams in a 7 game series.

"True glory consists of doing what deserves to be written, and writing what deserves to be read".

by Pliny the Elder on Dec 17, 2009 1:09 AM MST reply actions  

I love this qualifier.
When that happens, and if the Lakers should suffer an injury to Bynum or Gasol, or the Celtics to Garnett or Pierce, then I like our chances against either of those two teams in a 7 game series.

It’s hard not to concede their superiority as long as they have that kind of manpower.

Contributor: Bright Side of the Sun Twitter: @MikeLisboa

by Mike Lisboa on Dec 18, 2009 12:11 AM MST up reply actions  

yeah...

but I just wanted to make the point, that when we get our act together, we’re not actually that far behind the big two teams, despite what the results up to this point would indicate.

"True glory consists of doing what deserves to be written, and writing what deserves to be read".

by Pliny the Elder on Dec 18, 2009 5:24 PM MST up reply actions  

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