Good Offense Can't Overcome Rebounding, Turnover Problems

by AlanS on Dec 20, 2009 10:26 AM MST

Prior to their game with the Wizards, the Suns were 4-6 in their last 10 games. That included 3 road games which were decided in the last minute.

These are some stats from those 10 games, courtesy of Dougstats.com:

Record: 4-6

Suns FG%: 47.0
Opponents FG%: 44.7

Suns Field Goals Made/Attempted per game: 38.4/81.7
Opponents FGM/FGA: 38.2/85.4

Suns 3FG%: 41.5
Opponents 3FG%: 35.9

Suns 3PT FG Made/Attempted per game: 8.5/20.5
Opponents FGM/FGA: 8.3/23.1

Suns FT%: 77.5
Opponents FT%: 75.6

Suns Field FT Made/Attempted per game: 17.6/22.7
Opponents FGM/FGA: 21.4/28.3

The Suns were clearly a much more efficient offensive team than their opponents, shooting a higher percentage on FGs, 3PTFGs, and FTs.

The problem is, their opponents were making just as many FGs and 3PTFGs as the Suns, and were making even more FTs. In effect, the Suns' advantages as a good shooting team were irrelevant, because other teams wound-up making just as many shots as the Suns did.

And the reason for that is, Suns opponents are taking many more shots.

Here’s what’s interesting: the Suns are actually out-defending their opponents. In the last 10 games, they’ve held opponents to 44.7% shooting. If they had been holding opponents to 44.7% for the whole season, they’d have the 9th or 10th best defensive FG% in the NBA.

But the Suns have one big problem: horrible defensive rebounding. The Suns are the 2nd worst defensive rebounding team in the NBA. According to Hollinger stats, the Suns have a 69.1 defensive rebound rate; only Golden State is worse (69.0).

In their last 10 games, the Suns averaged 11.0 offensive rebounds a game. Their opponents averaged 15.5 offensive rebounds! So Suns opponents got an extra 4.5 possessions thanks to the Suns weakness on the glass. And that's fueled the extra FG and FT attempts that their opponents have gotten.

The Suns other problem is turnovers. For the season, the Suns have a turnover differential of -1.89. Only two teams are worse at TO differential: the Spurs (-2.21) and the Magic (-2.30)

In the past ten games, the Suns committed 14.5 TOs per game, versus 12.2 TOs for opponents. That's a differential of -2.3 for the period, slightly worse than their seasonal averages. And again, that gives the opposition more chances to shoot and score.

The bottom line is: all the good the Suns do with their efficient offense is lost due to second chance points allowed, and points allowed off turnovers.

In October/November, the Suns averaged 50% shooting from the field, and that was enough to overcome their problems with rebounding and turnovers. But the 47% shooting we've seen in the last ten games is not enough to make up for those shortcomings.

The return of a healthy LB will help, by adding even more to the Suns' offensive strength. Meanwhile I don't see anything on the horizon that will improve the Suns' weak rebounding or their habit of turning the ball over. They have to live - or die - with that through the rest of the season.

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Nice job...

Interesting post. We all knew rebounding would be our Achilles’ heel. It looked like we could overcome our lack of size at the beginning of the season but we’re increasingly seeing that that’s not the case lately. I really like this year’s team but I’m beginning to believe we’re fundamentally flawed. It’s hard to win when your two starting big men are Stoudemire (even if he’s rebounding better) and Frye.

by Lorenzo Franceschi Bicchierai on Dec 21, 2009 10:48 AM MST reply actions

I wouldn't say the Suns are out-defending anyone...

…as much as they are out-shooting their opponents. It’s a fine line, but it’s more true than saying the Suns are defending anyone particularly well.

Contributor: Bright Side of the Sun Twitter: @MikeLisboa

by Mike Lisboa on Dec 21, 2009 12:11 PM MST reply actions

not so fast there, Mike

If they had been holding opponents to 44.7% for the whole season, they’d have the 9th or 10th best defensive FG% in the NBA.

Opponent’s FG% is a very accurate measure of defensive success and overall for the season the Suns are now 16th in the league and slightly ABOVE average at .455.

As for rebounding, the issue I think is more the lack of offensive rebounding rather than the poor defensive rebounding. Suns are 12th in DRebs per game (33).

I have no idea how “rebounding rate” is calculated but something seems fishy there. Especially since the Suns are listed at 15th in offensive rebounding rate despite being out boarded by 75 on that end.

The rebounding stat I think is most important is differential. Suns are -1.22 which is 24th. That sounds horrible except the game between 11th place and 24th place is only 2 rebounds. The gap between 24th and 26th (NOH) is more than 2 rebounds and the gap between 24th and 30th (GSW) is 8.5 rebounds (!!).

So, yes the Suns aren’t a good rebounding team but they are decent. The turnovers are more of a concern as is what we’ve all seen in these last few games which was a down quarter. I think that has a lot to do with missing Barbosa and general road wariness.

Blogging Suns Basketball . twitter: @phoenixstan

by Seth Pollack on Dec 21, 2009 12:34 PM MST up reply actions

As for rebounding, the issue I think is more the lack of offensive rebounding rather than the poor defensive rebounding. Suns are 12th in DRebs per game (33). I have no idea how "rebounding rate" is calculated but something seems fishy there. Especially since the Suns are listed at 15th in offensive rebounding rate despite being out boarded by 75 on that end.

The Suns are 12 in DRebs per game, but that number is misleading. The Suns play a fast paced game, they commit a lot of TOs, and their weak defensive rebounding creates opportunities for additional opponents shots AND offensive rebounds. So looking at total rebounds w/o adjusting for pace will lead to a distorted view of the Suns rebounding.

The defensive rebounding rate is the percentage of rebounds that the Suns grab when opponents miss shots. So for example, if opponents miss 100 shots, and the Suns get 65 of those misses, then their Def Reb Rate is 65%.

RE: the Suns Off Reb Rate looking fishy: the Suns have a half-way decent offensive rebounding rate, but remember, the Suns shoot a higher percentage than other teams; and also very important, they take less shots (this is discussed in the post). As a result, the opposition will have more offensive rebounding opportunities than the Suns.

One last last, I think it’s fair to distinguish between a poor defensive team and a poor rebounding team. In December, they have been a good defensive team, holding opponents to under 45% shooting. It’s their poor rebounding that’s hurt them recently. Just imagine if they were a poor defensive team AND and poor defensive rebounding team. They’d really be in trouble.

by AlanS on Dec 21, 2009 5:23 PM MST up reply actions

but why would

the Offensive rebounding “rate” not account for a good shooting percentage if it purportedly only looks at available offensive rebound opportunities?

Confused in Phoenix

Blogging Suns Basketball . twitter: @phoenixstan

by Seth Pollack on Dec 22, 2009 12:06 AM MST up reply actions

I don't understand your question, but...

I don’t know if I get your question, but I can talk about an aspect of the offensive rebound rate that does confuse people.

Consider this example: team A is playing team B. Team A takes 100 shots, and make 90 of them… that means there are 10 rebounds to be had. If Team A gets 6 of those 10 rebounds, that an offensive rebounding rate of 60% (they got 6 of the 10 rebounds).

Now let’s consider Team B. Team B takes 110 shots, they miss 70 shots. That means there are 40 rebounds to be had. Let’s say Team B grabs 20 of those rebounds. That’s an offensive rebounding rate of 50% (they got 20 of 40 rebounds).

In this case, Team A has a better offensive rebounding rate than Team B.

But Team B has 20 offensive rebounds, versus 6 for Team A. Many people will look at these numbers and say, wow, Team B is a great offensive rebounding team, much better than Team A. But Team A has the higher off reb rate… it’s just that Team B takes and misses so many shots, there are a lot more opportunities for offensive rebounds.

That’s why looking at the total number of offensive rebounds can mislead you about whether a team is a good rebounding team or not. To really see if a team is a really good offensive rebounding team, you need to look at their offensive rebounding rate, not the number of offensive rebounds.

by AlanS on Dec 22, 2009 7:13 PM MST up reply actions

This example is missing the final touch to make it understandable:

Team A out-rebounds Team B 26-24.

The point that AlanS is making is that although offensive rebounds should never be ignored, they never tell the whole story. Especially not the offensive rebound rate: what does that even mean?

We wouldn’t be talking about this if the Suns would simply BOX OUT. Whenever the other team fires up a shot, the Suns players will simply stand under the basket and watch the ball bounce off the rim, except for Amundson. They make no attempt to locate their man on the floor, and then they get burned.

Or, you can pick up the offensive pace even more. It makes no sense to crash the boards when the Suns’ pace of the game is so high, so force the other team to defend the run and gun. Then slow the game down when it suits you.

That’s a big reason that the Suns could never get past the Spurs. They could never CONTROL THE TEMPO. Gregg Popovich is a master of this.

by ArizonaBornandBred on Dec 28, 2009 5:18 PM MST up reply actions

What's missing is 2nd chance points stats

If I could recommend one thing, it would be for the NBA to make 2nd chance points part of the regular box score, and have 2nd chance points tracked in league stats.

In the Suns game versus OKC, the Suns lost 117-113. In that game, the Thunder had 23 2nd chance points, while the Suns only had 9. When you see those numbers, it’s obvious that the Suns defensive rebounding weaknesses cost them the game. But the Sporting News is the only news outfit that regularly posts 2nd chance points numbers.

by AlanS on Dec 29, 2009 6:38 AM MST up reply actions

I'm not going to say we are glass cleaners but,

in those 10 games we have played some pretty stiff competition. Lakers, Mavs, Magic, Nuggets, Spurs, and Blazers(yes, I still count them as a pretty good team). So I think that is the biggest reason for the sub .500 record in our last 10. At the same time, that makes me even happier to know we have forced that kind of shooting from those teams. We are never going to be a defensive powerhouse, but this is by far the best defense we have played in years. Let’s not forget that it wasn’t too long ago that we made it to the playoffs with no Amare or any other “center” at all.

by NSU Stud on Dec 21, 2009 2:04 PM MST reply actions

Of course the Blazers are still a pretty good team.

They’re missing their starting C (Oden), starting SF (Batum), 6th man (Outlaw), 3-point specialist (Fernandez), and a solid, young PF prospect with a fairly low ceiling (Pendergraph) and a PG who wouldn’t have made a difference on their rotation anyway (Mills).

Quite the injury list, there. I give them tons of credit for being at 17-12.

I also agree that it’s pretty impressive that we’re holding our own against teams like you mentioned. All of the aforementioned teams have players that are fantastic at rebounding.

Bright Side of the Sun, where Suns basketball never looked so good.

by Trevor Paxton on Dec 21, 2009 2:18 PM MST up reply actions