A Big, Enormous, Talkative Fish in a Small Pond

by JSun on Mar 13, 2009 2:04 PM MDT Comment 17 comments

Someone got me to thinking about Shaq's numbers this year. Are they fool's gold?

He's played well, but we're competing for a championship, right? That's what Shaq does when he gets angry, right? How does he stack up "when it counts" -- like shooting free throws?

There is one big out-lyer in all these numbers. The most recent Lakers game. He went for 33 and 7 on 13 of 18 shooting. This proves that he has the heart of a champion. The rest of it shows he just may not have the body of a champion anymore. This is why I contend he is at his most useful as the highest-paid roleplayer of all time.

Against the best teams in the league, the Suns lose if he takes more than 12 shots a game. Against the best teams in the leauge, the Suns lose if he does not get at least 6 boards a game. The Suns also lose games when he takes less than 12 shots or gets more than 6 boards. However, they are winless if he takes more than 12 shots and they are winless if he doesn't get at least 6 rebounds (the last Lakers game excluded).

Here is a link to his game stats. Here is a breakdown.

Against the Spurs

Game 1 (W): 15 pts (5-10) and 11 rebs

Game 2 (L): 23 pts (7-15) and 10 rebs

Game 3 (L): 13 pts (5-14) and 4 rebs

Game 4 (L): 14 pts (6-16) at 5 rebs

Against the Lakers

Game 1 (L): 15 pts (6-12) and 9 rebs

Game 2 (L): 12 pts (3-7) and 7 rebs

Game 3 (W): 33 pts (13-18) and 7 rebs

Against the Jazz

Game 1 (L): 9 pts (3-11) and 1 reb

Game 2 (W): 15 pts (5-7) and 10 rebs

Against the Rockets

Game 1 (L): 18 pts (7-12) and 13 rebs

Game 2 (L): 17 pts (8-12) and 5 rebs

Against the Celtics

Game 1 (L): 17 pts (7-11) and 6 rebs

Game 2 (L): 16 pts (8-13) and 12 rebs

Against the Cavaliers

Game 1 (L): 11 (5-7) and 6 rebs

Against the Magic

Game 1 (L): 19 pts (9-13) and 11 rebs

Against the Hornets

Game 1 (L): 8 (3-4) and 8 rebs

From a scoring perspective, he beats up on inferior opponents:

He has scored 25 or more against Milwaukee, Sacramento, Milwaukee (again), Oklahoma City, Dallas, Sacramento, Washington, Toronto and the Lakers. That's 25 or more against playoff teams 2 times so far. He has scored 15 or less against San Antonio, New Orleans, Indiana, Memphis, Detroit, Utah, Lakers, Miami, New Jersey, Dallas, Utah (again), Clippers, San Antonio (again), Sacramento, Golden State, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Clippers, Lakers (again) and San Antonio (again). That's 15 or less against playoff teams 13 times so far. Of that, he's had 12 or fewer against Indiana, Memphis, Detroit, Utah, Miami, New Jersey, Dallas, Sacramento, Golden State, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Lakers. That's 12 or fewer points against playoff teams 7 times this season.

When he rebounds well, the Suns do well:

Shaq's had 24 games with 10+ boards. The Suns are 16-8 overall in those games, and 7-5 against playoff teams. Shaq's had 15 games with 6 or less boards. The Suns are 6-9 in those games, and 1-8 against playoff teams.

His scoring is less important to the Suns' victories than his rebounding. Further, his best scoring outputs come against crappy teams.

"But wait!" you scream. "He is shooting 60% from the field!" Quick question, Einstein, who is the second-leading field goal percentage shooter in leauge history? Come on, you call yourself a Suns' fan?

That's right, my favorite playing when I was growing up -- Mark West. 58% career filed goal shooter. Does that mean all those coaches who didn't let him take 15 shots per game were off their collective rocker?

When Shaq has the ball close to the hoop, he remains a nearly-unstoppable offensive threat who can finish and pass out of the double-team. When he is playing tough, clogging the lane and rebounding, the Suns are competitive with anyone. When he becomes the focal point of the offense, your team ends up in the lottery.

I sure did love The Big Roleplayer. I wish we had him back.

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All this for me?

awwww, schucks, it’s not even my birthday!

"I’m tired of hearing about money, money, money, money, money. I just want to play the game, drink Pepsi, wear Reebok." ~Shaq

by Max_in_Missouri on Mar 12, 2009 3:40 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

No witty retort?

C’mon, what’s wrong with this numerical analysis?

Surprised my opinions are backed by actual numbers?

Frantically searching the web for data contradicting my hypothesis?

Mmmmm ... Guinness

by JSun on Mar 12, 2009 5:34 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought you liked Shaq...I am confused

weren’t you favor of this deal and bringing him here?

Blogging Suns Basketball

by Phoenix Stan on Mar 12, 2009 5:37 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was in favor

I loved The Big Roleplayer. Loved him. Absolutely. Rebounding. Boxing out so Amare could rebound. Blocking shots. Knocking players down. Scrapping for balls. Offensive rebounds. Leadership in the locker room. Scoring on putbacks. Getting teams into foul trouble. Having a post presence. Making Tim Duncan start more than 4 feet from the rim.

I hate The Big Ego. I said at the beginning of the season that Shaq cannot put the team on his back. He is past that part of his career. 29 and 35 against Bogut is relatively meaningless when you’re shooting less than 40% against Tim Duncan and Kurt Thomas. “I’ve been hitting 60% of my 4-footers my whole career. Come with me and I’ll get you a ring.” Shortly into the season, I said D’Antoni used him properly and Porter used him improperly. Now, he’s just about the only thing the Suns have got and they’re in the lottery.

Also, on “getting his numbers” — when Amare gets his numbers, the team wins. when Shaq gets his stats, the team goes to the lottery.

Mmmmm ... Guinness

by JSun on Mar 12, 2009 5:44 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry, I was counting Nash and Amare's rings......

Dude, I got about 15 dillusional fans trying to kill me at every turn on your hometurf. I’m tryin to keep up with all the stuff, but it’s like its all breaking down to the same fundament argument in each of the forums. I’m tryin to keep up! I don’t really do the web search thing to try and nitpick facts to back me….I been following the game CLOSELY since 1993 and have been paying an unhealthy amount of attention to the NBA over that time period. I don’t need to go search the web and find some other blogger to make my case. I’m responding as much as I can. You’re getting paid to espouse your increasingly contradictory statements. I’m just a guy doing this out of passion and love of the game. I’ve got like 60 posts since joining 48 hours ago or so….give me a break, lol

And I appreciate that you think I"m witty and threatening enough to warrant an entire new thread though :)

"I’m tired of hearing about money, money, money, money, money. I just want to play the game, drink Pepsi, wear Reebok." ~Shaq

by Max_in_Missouri on Mar 12, 2009 6:00 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm getting paid?

Stan, did you hear that? You’ve got some seriously overdue wage issues, my friend.

Mmmmm ... Guinness

by JSun on Mar 12, 2009 6:09 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I, too, hate it when facts get in the way of my position

I don’t really do the web search thing to try and nitpick facts

Of course, to make my point, I linked to ONE page. One. Singular. And I read the numbers. Then, I realized I was right. If the numbers were different, I would have admitted my mistake. I’ve done it before. I’m about to eat crow on my Knicks prediction.

I’m also going to have to look up the word “contradictory” on one of those nitpicking website like dictionary.com. I thought it meant taking contrary views. Saying things that are the complete opposite of one another. I’ve maintained, since the early part of this season, that riding Shaq to a championship was a bad gameplan.

Mmmmm ... Guinness

by JSun on Mar 12, 2009 6:13 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Break down the argument here

I’m tryin to keep up with all the stuff, but it’s like its all breaking down to the same fundament argument in each of the forums.

It’s all in one place. Right here. Do it. With facts.

Don’t tell me you’ve been watching the game since 1993 and “just know about these things.” I’ve been watching since 1977. The length of time sitting in front of the boob tube is not a justification for opinions. By that logic, any longtime fan should be able to have a successful career in some team’s front office somewhere.

Mmmmm ... Guinness

by JSun on Mar 12, 2009 6:16 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, you love to hate me.....I'm glad to exact such passion from someone

By that logic, any longtime fan should be able to have a successful career in some team’s front office somewhere

…..Or as a featured blogger at least :)

OK, fair enough about doing it here. This shall be the forum. I been dickin’ around on here too long and I’m heading out for the evening soon, but I should back later on. Don’t freak out because I don’t respond within the next couple of hours and get some false sense of self–righteousness. I’ll be back, we’ll discuss. Until then, let’s take the Cavs down tonight!

"I’m tired of hearing about money, money, money, money, money. I just want to play the game, drink Pepsi, wear Reebok." ~Shaq

by Max_in_Missouri on Mar 12, 2009 6:32 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

True, Shaq does beat up on weak teams and phails against elite teams

But blindly lifting information from stats alone is very dangerous.

Here’s one factor to consider. Shaq not scoring/getting good stats against elite teams could well be because his teammates themselves are getting owned by said elite team.

Another one. Does Shaq playing badly cause the team to lose against elite teams? Or is Shaq’s play simply one of the small components that would have caused the team to lose in the first play? Ie, the poor play of the other players.

How much of the “reduced effectiveness” of the offense is due to over-feeding Shaq, and how much of it is due to players’ egoes being hurt(ie Amare) and they subsequently REFUSE to play even semi-almost-barely-acceptably-decent?

I believe it is a moderation of the two opposing points of view. As we have always preached, there has to be balance. Shaq is old and not the force he once was. However, we should still utilise him whenever the opportunity arises, and he should be one of the top offensive choices to look for in the team offense. No J-Rich and Barnes’ wild chucking. Cut the bad offensive decisions by Nash. Don’t overfeed Shaq. But everyone’s being an extremist, really.

I guess I’ve already reached the zen-state of Suns-fandom. I haven’t even posted in the past week; I"m too busy chilling. The results are a foregone conclusion, might as well just enjoy the game. And watch Lebron continue to get immunity from fouls by the refs.

by felixthm on Mar 13, 2009 12:04 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Accepting limitations

My point is along the lines of accepting Shaq’s limitations. He is not going to shoot a high percentage against the elite teams. What he can do — every night against any team — is rebound and clog the lane on defense. He cannot carry this team offensively. He can do many, many other things to help the team. One of which includes being a low-post offensive presence when necessary. One of which does not include building an offense in which Shaq is the #1 option. That is why I call his “dominating” performances against lesser teams fools’ gold.

As I commented above, I loved The Big Roleplayer, but I cannot stomach what he’s doing now.

Mmmmm ... Guinness

by JSun on Mar 13, 2009 12:18 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Question

I noticed his numbers are down with some elite because he received less touches (or less shots).

So, is it accurate to say he didn’t became the central focus on offense because we were against playoff teams, hence we had to go to Steve or Stat? or the defense of the playoff teams locked him down? Seems like a chicken and egg thing to me but I think a game-to-game basis is the answer here.

His best game against the Lakers showed that when he gets those touches, he really could do it. When Nash came back, of course the offense had to change into shooting primarily rather than SSOS. I don’t hate Nash, I love his game. He is the reason why I’m a Suns fan. But I really see key differences between him and Shaq in “managing” team offense.

So going back to Shaq, we do lose to elite teams but if we look at his attempt, its also lower than say, the time when we won big against the Lakers.

Game 3 (L): 13 pts (5-14) and 4 rebs

Game 4 (L): 14 pts (6-16) at 5 rebs

Game 1 (L): 9 pts (3-11) and 1 reb

Apart from these games, I believe he did well with the other games.

I’m not sure about his fg, but maybe its better than rushing up 3 pointers and jumpers that results into zero points.

That’s all.

Cheers!

by Azrael on Mar 13, 2009 4:53 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed, but not my point

So, is it accurate to say he didn’t became the central focus on offense because we were against playoff teams, hence we had to go to Steve or Stat? or the defense of the playoff teams locked him down? Seems like a chicken and egg thing to me but I think a game-to-game basis is the answer here.

My point is that he cannot carry the Suns against the elite teams — for whatever reasons. Not to say he isn’t a dominant big. What it means is that running the offense through him will not win championships. And, I’m not saying another system will — although the STAT-Nash pick-n-roll at least go the Suns into the playoffs. I’m saying that the arguments that Shaq is the answer for this team are misguided. Shaq is good/great as the most overpaid paid complimentary role player in the history of the league — not as the missing link to the Suns’ championship run.

Mmmmm ... Guinness

by JSun on Mar 17, 2009 2:04 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've always thought

that the Suns best chances where to find the balance between all the different styles. The Nash / Amare pick and roll is great but we saw that it only got us so far. The idea of adding interior defense, rebounding and low post offense to that was sound (although I still think Shaq was the wrong way to do it).

But once Shaq was here this season and clearly playing at a level physically beyond what we expected, the team needed to and never was able to find that balance. In retrospect, bringing JRich and asking him to be a role player probably killed it mostly b/c it seems to be the move that most upset Nash and led to his frustration with having “too many mouths to feed”.

Blogging Suns Basketball

by Phoenix Stan on Mar 18, 2009 9:39 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

JRich has underacheived

But I don’t know that his presence has been detrimental

Still better than Raja

Mmmmm ... Guinness

by JSun on Mar 18, 2009 4:53 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, another factor to consider in whether Shaq "chokes" against elite teams

Does the whole Suns team perform poorly/shoot low % against stronger opposition/defenses? It’s only logical that they do, isn’t it? Moreover, with stronger post-defenders and better organised defenses, it’s not so much that Shaq “under-produces” against stronger teams. Rather, his game is logically responding to a superior defense, just like every other player on the team. Moreover, I do notice his touches and his FG attempt aren’t always directly related. It also depends largely on the quality of the entry pass, the specific defender on him, his location relative to the rim, and the presence of help defenders.

by felixthm on Mar 15, 2009 1:38 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs