So what are our chances? Really?

by antiw0rm on Mar 20, 2009 7:16 AM MST

I found a WEBSITE that ran a 10,000,000 game simulation based on current season statistics for the last 14 games of the season. The results are decent and I think are able to give some good results based on theory. It is true that none of these could be the case as they do not exactly account for other teams and changing trends in short spans of time. But this is actually good data. Take a look at this graph that I ~~stole~~ borrowed.

If finish:			Chance in		Chance team will finish the regular season at position
W	-	L	PCT	playoffs	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

14	-	0	1.000	In			5	10	51	30	3	0								4,166
13	-	1	.929	99.8			0	1	18	44	31	6	0							38,876
12	-	2	.857	94.1			0	0	2	15	43	35	6							211,218
11	-	3	.786	69.8				0	0	1	17	51	30							676,499
10	-	4	.714	36.3					0	0	3	33	64							1,433,277
9	-	5	.643	13.6						0	0	13	86							2,119,286
8	-	6	.571	3.7							0	4	96							2,248,879
7	-	7	.500	0.8							0	1	99							1,736,372
6	-	8	.429	0.1								0	100							983,037
5	-	9	.357	0.0								0	100							402,759
4	-	10	.286	0.0								0	100							117,664
3	-	11	.214	Out									100							23,695
2	-	12	.143	Out									100							3,028
1	-	13	.071	Out									100							237
0	-	14	.000	Out									100							1,007

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Comments

wow... formatting that thing was an acheivement too! =)

C'mon Suns - one more time...

by ZonaFlash on Mar 21, 2009 5:42 PM MST reply actions

So...

According to that website, the chance of us getting into the playoffs is

(4166 * 1 + 38876 * 0.998 + 211218 * 0.941 + 676499 * 0.698 + 1433277 * 0.363 + 2119286 * 0.136 + 2248879 * 0.037 + 1736372 * 0.008 + 983037 * 0.001) / 10000000 = 0.162

That’s 16.2%, or roughly 1 in 6. Although that data was made before we smoked the Wizards, I doubt it would have changed much.

Today John Hollinger’s have us at 27.5%.

by gadogry on Mar 23, 2009 11:03 AM MST reply actions