Suns finish "easy streak" with improved balance
When we looked at the schedule a week ago and saw four games against teams with worse records then the Suns we assumed it would be a fairly easy streak. Especially coming off the previous 6 straight losses all at the hands of statistical betters. 
None of us expected the wins to come in the way they did though with an average margin of 19 points. It was the way the Suns won those games that has me excited and just a little more hopeful going into another stretch against tougher competition.
This season has been a well documented roller coaster of at least five different attempts at forging a winning identity. I've felt all year that the key was achieving the right balance between Nash's ability to push the ball, Shaq's low post dominance and maximizing the potential of the rest of the players including the bench.
Defensively, I've come to accept that having Nash and Shaq on the floor is going to leave the Suns vulnerable to the pick and roll and that the best the Suns could hope for is to pack it in and force teams to win over the top. The second unit however, has always had the potential to be better defensively using their energy and athletic ability to get stops and hold leads.
These last four games (against inferior opponents) have given us the first real signs all season that this basketball nirvana was possible.
We've finally seen the Seven Seconds of Shaq work for an extended period with both Nash and Shaq on the floor. The Suns are running more but mostly off stops and rebounds and only after the occasional made basket. Unlike the first three games of the Gentry era which was much more traditional run and gun this is fast but still efficient. There are a lot fewer quick jump shots early in the clock then in a D'Antoni or Nellie up-tempo offense and improved bench play has shown signs that the Holy Grail may be in reach.
The Quest for B (where in B = balance)
It may be too late to help the Suns make the playoffs and it has yet to be tested by adversity but if this trend plays out and the Suns can finish not only strong but balanced it will provide extremely valuable insight into the off-season moves that must be made.
Here's a few key points of improvement:
- Better balance in the half court. Nash is finding Shaq and not turning the ball over on the entry pass. I still believe the mental dynamic between Nash and Shaq is the story of this season and during the losing streak it seemed that Nash was trying to do too much. Now, they are finally finding a better rhythm together letting Nash be Nash in the open court and Shaq be Shaq in the half court. It is such a simple concept and it is unfortunate it took losing 6 games to find it
- By establishing Shaq early in the game teams are forced to double team more and the Suns are doing a better job moving the ball and finding either great open looks or using the chaos to drive the lane and create
- Gentry seems to have taken peices of D'Antoni's system such as have the wing defender leak out after the other team shoots a jump shot with the inside-out power game using Shaq. Most notably though is the use of his athletic wing players to slash and create in the half court. Guys are encouraged to break their man down and the Suns roster (unlike prior years) is well built for this.
- Hill, Richardson, Barnes, Dudley, Barbosa, Tucker, Dragic and Nash can all take advantage of of mismatches and create for their team mates off the dribble. The key is going to Shaq early to establish his post game which has created foul problems and forced double teams to come which opens up the court for everyone
- The turnovers have dropped to 11 per game during the stretch and only 8 per game in the last two. Since the all-star break (aka the Gentry era) the Suns are averaging only 13.9 turnovers per game which is about where the Lakers are at 11th in the league. I believe this is mostly mental as the players are more focused and are not trying to force passes that aren't there. Porter talked about solving the turn over problem by making the simple play and that's what we are seeing
- For the first time in Nash's tenure as a Sun he can go out of game and not assume the lead will get diminished. Kerr has assembled a solid group of young, energetic and skilled bench players and Gentry is counting on them to deliver. And they are
- Despite being small, the Suns since the all-star break are staying even on the glass with just a slight .6 advantage in total rebounding
- Dudley, Amundson and Dragic are leading the way with better defense and good enough offense. Dudley and Dragic both have shown a marked improvement in their ability to beat their man off the dribble and get into the paint and create. It will be harder without Barbosa leading this unit to score, but I still think when given the chance Tucker can provide a solid punch off the bench
- Effort, energy, chemistry and fun. Winning has a tendency to do this, but this team is having fun again and playing as loose and free as they have all season. It is unfortunate that it took being in this position of having nothing to lose and everything to gain to finally find this mental framework and it remains to be seen if it will carry over once the quality of competition increases and/or the playoff race tightens more. I hope it does, but if this season's history is any guide we are fully justified in being skeptical (yet still hopeful) about this team's ability to battle through adversity
Over this streak the Suns have shown they can beat up on the weak sisters and now its time to see if that will carry over. The Suns have had stretches this season where they've looked good and had some nice wins at times but have yet to stay consistent in the face of adversity and rely on who they are to carry them though.
This next four games against the Nuggets, Jazz and Blazers will once again give the Suns an opportunity to show us who they are.
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talk about balance...
For the most part, box-score statistics don’t reveal much about the flow or flavor of a particular game. But occasionally, you get a box-score that surprises.
In this game, I was amazed to see just how spread out the assists were. All the starters, except J Rich had 4 , and he had 3. Dragic had 4 and Dudley had 6. Even Stromile Swift had 2. All for a grand total of 32 assists (vs 51 made shots).
Now, I didn’t see the game, so I’m not sure if that statistical anomaly was due to Nash doing his best Wayne Gretsky impersonation, but it does suggest that this team is clicking together, at least offensively, at a very high level.
If this were the start of the season, I’d say something along the lines of this trend boding well, and that it would only be a matter of time before the defense started to jell. Given that this team is not going to be together next year, unless they win it all, the only thing to do, right now, is sit back & enjoy the ride.
"True glory consists of doing what deserves to be written, and writing what deserves to be read".
by Pliny the Elder on Mar 22, 2009 10:59 AM MDT reply actions
Wait a minute
Who is going to be gone?
The only players I expect to be gone are Barnes, who wants more money, and Hill, who may retire.
Do you really think someone out there will pay 20 million for Shaq? And Kerr might as well pack his bags if he tries to trade Nash.
Also, because of reecurring eye damage, if I am a GM, I shy away from Stoudemire until I see him playing again, and there is the inevitable repeat microfracture.
That leaves the only trade piece Jason Richardson, who is an overpaid streak shooter, who has done nothing to disprove that for three teams.
Dudley, Lopez, Dragic, Amundson could be the nicest group of bench players we have put together in a long time.
Tell me what I am missing.
April 29, 2008 Total Eclipse of the Sun. Is the sky falling?
Luxury cap
The Suns have $77m in signed contracts for next year and that’s only 10 players. Add in a few more and you easily looking at $80m which is projected to be about $12m over the lux tax line.
I highly doubt Nash, Amare, JRich and Shaq will all be back next year.
Nash at $13m with one yr left is probably the most movable and then Amare in a sign and trade. JRich is only signed for 2 more yrs. Even Shaq will be of interest b/c he’s coming off the books in 2010. Cleveland almost took him this trade deadline.
My guess is that Nash will go. Amare and Shaq will stay. Not sure on JRich but I would move him if a deal is available even if you just get picks for him.
One the lottery is set on May 19 we will look in detail at which teams are under the cap. Memphis, Detroit, OKC, Minnie, Sacto, Toronto, Portland and ATL will all be at least 10m under the cap with Memphis, Detroit and OKC sitting about $22m under.
We could trade Nash to the Thunder for a piece of all those picks they are stock piling for example. Amare could do to Memphis – we know they were interested or more likely to ATL where he would resign.
This is all just top of the head stuff, like I said we will dig into it deeper in a few months but I don’t see all four of those guys returning and Nash is that guys name I keep hearing discussed.
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Seth Pollack on Mar 22, 2009 2:06 PM MDT up reply actions
imho, Nash will be gone.
I don’t think the front office will pick up his option for next year.
Despite the inherent sentimentality involved in doing that, it’s an easy decision, because it’s the least disruptive move, and solves the financial issue in one fell swoop. Trades don’t really help in this situation, because you can’t reduce the money committed for next season by enough to get under the cap.
Bear in mind if Nash goes, Grant Hill might retire too.
OTOH, if Swift does a good job, and this team gets into the playoffs and goes deep, then you might see Amare be the guy looking for new digs.
"True glory consists of doing what deserves to be written, and writing what deserves to be read".
by Pliny the Elder on Mar 22, 2009 2:56 PM MDT up reply actions
Stan, you're mistaken wrt salary cap
It’s this season’s salaries which are at $75M. For next season, the only committed salaries add up to $62M (doesn’t include Nash or Louis, which are yet to be activated team options)
for more info: http://hoopshype.com/salaries/phoenix.htm
"True glory consists of doing what deserves to be written, and writing what deserves to be read".
by Pliny the Elder on Mar 22, 2009 7:38 PM MDT up reply actions
You are correct sir
re: Nash and Lou. You have to think the Suns will pick up Lou’s option. With Steve, if they don’t they are still on the hook for half of it which is about $6m.
I assumed they would pick up Nash’s option so they would be able to trade him and get something back in return. That clears more space then not picking up the option.
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Seth Pollack on Mar 23, 2009 8:27 AM MDT up reply actions
didn't realize they were on the hook for half..
that makes sense, now.
"True glory consists of doing what deserves to be written, and writing what deserves to be read".
by Pliny the Elder on Mar 23, 2009 9:46 AM MDT up reply actions
I am not positive
that the Suns would take the cap hit for the 1/2 but I assume so. I will try and confirm….there’s going to be a lot of trade discussion, options explored, cap space dissected, etc between the May 19th lottery and the draft in June 25th
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Seth Pollack on Mar 23, 2009 11:25 AM MDT up reply actions
Ahhhh..
What a pretty kettle of fish. Trade ‘em all. I don’t care. Who is going to be the point guard if you let him go? Dragic? Lawson or Maynor? To me, losing Nash would be the most disruptive. Trading Amare would be the least disruptive. We always seem to be able to play OK when he is out. If we can snooker Memphis or Sacto into giving us their pick and some filler for Amare, lets do it. Maybe OKC will give us Durant and our pick back.
You still didn’t answer my question. Why would a GM trade for Amare coming off serious eye injuries and an almost sure microfracture in the next few years?
April 29, 2008 Total Eclipse of the Sun. Is the sky falling?
The same reason
Larry Hughes is making $12m per year, etc and so on
Amare is very attractive to a lot of teams looking to show their commitment to getting better, yadda yadda. He’s a pretty big star NBA-wise and would bring excitement to a lot of teams.
Obviously, the complication is his contract which he can opt out of at the end of next season….and his eye and knee but I am guessing teams will be fine w/ that
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Seth Pollack on Mar 22, 2009 7:04 PM MDT up reply actions
I agree...Stoudemire
would be the better major piece to trade. IMO they should have tried to move him way before the trade deadline when he had some more trade value when it became apparent he simply doesnt want to play defense/ rebound. But yes his eye injury is gonna be the trade stopper – especially if he’s gonna ask for a sign and trade to extend his contract. Maybe Atlanta would be willing to take a chance on him with Josh Smith having trouble with the coach or a combination of Marvin Wiliams + draft pick, since Williams has a contract ending (right?). I say any Amare trade for a young decent forward and/ or a high draft pick would be good – but i guess your right Suns would have to snooker a team to agree.
I don't think Amare will be traded...
He’s the face of the franchise, imho.
It’s clear that the youth movement in Phoenix is going to be centered around Amare, Leandro, Louis, Goran, Sideshow Rob, and maybe Dudley & Tucker, bolstered by whatever pieces they can pick up when Shaq, Steve and Grant pass beyond the basketball veil.
When I said not renewing Nash’s option was the least disruptive move, I had a number of reasons:
- Steve Nash’s salary for next year will be $13.25M. Taking that off the books means you don’t have to trade any other players for salary cap reasons, and actually it would give Steve Kerr some room to maneuver in.
- Steve’s remaining time on this team is limited.. at best 3 years, but more likely 1 year. A forced change at point is coming sooner rather than later, imho, and Kerr might be willing to bite the bullet letting Nash go in exchange for long term stability at the point. Personally, I think Goran will certainly be able to do a decent job in 2 years time. But remember, whomever takes over the point will not be Steve Nash, and expectations should be adjusted accordingly.
- This team has finally shown it can play at a decent level, albeit in spurts and less creatively, without Nash. Giving the team a full preseason/offseason to work with would mitigate the loss further.
Of course, this is only a problem for next season. After that, Shaq’s salary comes off the books. And for 2010-2011, if the organizaton doesn’t frak around too much, there is a possibility that if they’re still here both Shaq and Nash could be resigned in 2010-11 at something like $10M/year each.
But to get to your point…. Does Amare have trade value? sure.. but probably not full dollar for dollar value. He’s still a spectacular finisher, who puts asses in seats, and imho, before the eye injury people tended to overvalue him, which made him attractive, so a trade might actually end up being fair value. Also, he’ll be in the final year of a contract soon, and that will also make him valuable trade fodder.
Also, I’d point out that the new collective bargaining agreement is likely to end up having a clause allowing teams to terminate contracts early (specifically wrt the salary cap) in the case of injury or Marbury like subordination. That would make teams much more willing to take on an injury prone player like Amare, knowing that they could cut the cord early if things don’t pan out.
But I don’t think it will happen. If Steve Kerr tries to rebuild the team quickly after Nash’s departure, whenever that will be, and if Amare jells on-court with the players left here, then an Amare led Suns is a viable and even preferred option for the franchise.
"True glory consists of doing what deserves to be written, and writing what deserves to be read".
by Pliny the Elder on Mar 22, 2009 7:25 PM MDT up reply actions

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