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Goran Dragic revisited...sort of

I know what you're thinking, "two posts in two days, this isn't like you!"  Well, you're right, normally I wouldn't have the time or, quite frankly, the ideas for two stories in two days.  Today, however, is a little different.  Why?  Well, because after last night's AWESOME game against the Jazz, my email/twitter took major hits with questions about my current feelings towards Goran Dragic.  Some were more polite than others but all basically asking me to take back what I've said about him throughout the season.  My response, I'm not even close to believing this guy is a $2 million/year PG in the NBA.  Now, I know that this has been a touchy subject with a lot of Suns fans (due in large part to the Suns organizational mistakes dealing with young talent in the past) and I know most everyone here disagrees, but it is a stance I have chosen to take and one that I don't regret (partly because it lead me to where I'm at now on BSotS).  Before you jump down my throat though, I will use this space to explain why I haven't changed my mind, what I would need to see for me to change my mind and what things I think Goran should do in the offseason to make that happen.  Again, I am not rooting for this guy to fail and I have no beef with him as a person, I just don't see him being a viable NBA PG (emphasis on POINT GUARD).

Star-divide

Let me start by saying that Goran Dragic has been playing much better as of late.  He has the confidence to shoot and knock down open shots that he didn't have earlier this season and isn't second guessing everything he does.  Alvin Gentry has done a good job of masking the flaws in Dragic's game in this new system by allowing Dragic to play more off the ball and changing the offensive scheme when the second team is in.  Also, I feel we've been fairly lucky that other teams are not focusing on him in their scouting.  Here would be my current (condensed) scouting report on Dragic:

  • Can hit the open shot
  • Better off of the ball than running the offense
  • Has trouble creating shots for him or others off the dribble
  • Easily flustered/turnover prone when pressured defensively
  • Tends to get out of position on defense and plays on heels making it hard for him to defend a hard crossover dribble

Now, if I were a team planning for the Suns, I would pressure him 3/4 court with my quickest defender the moment he got on the floor.  I would throw hard double teams at him after any screen and try to get him as flustered as possible as quickly as possible.  You saw in last night's game, the one time the Jazz threw a hard double team at him (I believe it was either late in the 3rd or early in the 4th quarter about 30 feet out on the left side of the court)  he got incredibly flustered to the point where he was staring down Ronnie Brewer (honestly, what was his plan with that?) when the play ended.  Again, so far it seems teams are content to give him space and let him try and beat them with open shots - I'm just saying that I would go a different route. It should be noted, however, that as of right now I am not an official NBA team scout.

Anyway, back to the issue at hand.  I have long said that if Goran Dragic were to make it in this league, it would probably be as more of a combo guard needing to be matched with the right talent around him and not a point.  Now, everyone has been so impressed by his play of late, that they are just glancing over the fact that that's as much Alvin Gentry as it is anything Goran is doing.  When Dragic is in, they play a style of offense that doesn't really require Goran to run the offense.  Gentry is putting him out there with other players who are comfortable handling the duties of running the offense and allowing Goran to play more of a 2 guard style than the point.  So technically, it would seem that my argument is valid.

Now, the Suns have won 6 straight and we should all be on cloud 9 just enjoying the stretch run here (and trust me, I am enjoying it and believe that Gentry should be given the full-time job next year and that the Suns should keep this team in tact to see what it can do with a whole season because if not, we'll have about $40 million in salary to play with the next year - but that's another post for another day), however, you all asked if my opinion of Goran Dragic has changed and since it hasn't, I have to present to you my argument as to why.

In order for Dragic to prove me wrong, I would need to see a better ability to run the offense, MUCH better ball handling - especially in pressure situations and quicker decision making (on one of Dragic's fast break assists to Lou last night, you saw a moment where he was slow to decide and it almost cost him as he got too far into the lane before making a forced low pass to Amundson).  So what can he do to improve these things before next year? 

  1. Play -  He already has plans to play for almost the entire summer, this should help him improve, but won't take him all the way.
  2. Full court one-on-one - He should find somebody quick, mark off a quarter of the court and have the defender guard him extremely tight and even foul him by constantly slapping at the ball as he takes it down the court.  If he turns his back and starts backing the guy down, he would have to start over.  If he gets past the guy, he would have to stop, let the guy catch up and continue.
  3. Reaction drills - He should run through a number of reaction drills that force him to make quick decisions and improve his reaction time.
  4. Video - I would have him watching video of Tony Parker (ahhh, the sin of mentioning a Spur in this blog).  Tony Parker has a game that I think Goran Dragic could emulate if he improves in the areas mentioned above.  Dragic is not a Nash type PG, so learning strictly from Nash wouldn't be smart.  Yes, he should take some things from Nash, but he also needs to learn things from other PGs who have similar game to him and I think Tony Parker is one of those guys.
  5. Defensive drills - The dude has got to learn to play on his toes!  He is playing on his heels and it just causes so many problems with him getting out of position and not being able to respond quickly.

So there you have it (for the 1 of you who actually made it through all of that), my complete rundown of a) why my opinion of Goran Dragic as our backup PG has not changed and b) what I think he needs to do in order to change my opinion.  The chum is in the water, I know you are circling so have at it.  Just remember, the Suns are winning, I love how Gentry is using his bench (including how he is using Dragic now that he is our only "backup PG") and I only wrote this post because you all asked.

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Nice job.

You’re opinion is well put together and makes sense in most areas. I think the improvement in Dragic is 50% Dragic and 50% gentry. He reminds me of Barbosa in the sense that Barbosa was extremely shy and played very timidly in his first years. I can also see the resemblance in his game compared to Tony Parker. This kid does have raw talent but that however doesn’t mean he will be successful at this level. I do think another year under Gentry and he would be able to start controlling the floor a little better than he does now.

Nicely though… +1

" I'm going to root for the Suns when they are winning or losing, but when losing I will point and blame the failing economy on the Referees."- Me.

by antiw0rm on Mar 26, 2009 11:51 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

done^

" I'm going to root for the Suns when they are winning or losing, but when losing I will point and blame the failing economy on the Referees."- Me.

by antiw0rm on Mar 26, 2009 11:52 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

WOW

what is this talking about, he hasnt even played a freakin year yet!!

by dsun on Mar 26, 2009 12:11 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Great stuff

The question isn’t where he is now at 22 and basically half a season. The question can he improve and I am very encouraged by the improvement he’s shown.

I was thinking reading you post that he’s more like Parker then Nash so don’t expect that kind of game and then you made exactly that point. It also brings up a larger point regarding Nash, his role, the way the Suns played under D’Antoni that required a Nash-like PG that no backup could achieve. Now with Shaq the Suns can run a more Parker-like PG and both LB and Dragic. I digress….

Dragic as a rookie has a lot of room to improve. Compared to a rookie LB he’s ahead in some key areas:

Pass and vision. Room for improvement for sure but far better then LB was at this stage and I would say Parker as well. Dragic is starting out better then those guys so it is safe to assume will be a better distributor then either

Shooting – Parker was a horrible shooter when he started. He shot 32% from 3 his rookie year (and 29% now). Parker of course is a MUCH better scorer and finisher but shooting-wise Dragic is at 36% from 3 this season and 53!!!! since Gentry took over. 53!!! No, he won’t continue that with a larger sample size but clearly he’s starting from a better place then Parker did

Defense. Dragic like you said has a lot of room to improve but again, compared to Parker and LB is better as a rookie then either of those guys. He’s also bigger and longer then Parker and will get stronger

Running the team. The only rookie PG’s that really do very well are the scoring type. Rose, Westbrook, Gordon, etc. When was the last time you saw a “Nash-like” team leader, distributing PG do really well in his rookie season? It takes time and I agree that he’s got a lot of room to improve and he might be more of a Kirk Hinrich type of defensive, long range shooting guard but he’s more aggressive with his drives then Kirk and has more lift. He’s got a 37in vertical which I recall is what you have too?

So, I don’t disagree w/ your great assessment of where he is but I am more positive about his future given what he’s shown us so far including the most important thing he’s done this year: show improvement.

by Phoenix Stan on Mar 26, 2009 12:30 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

Yea what he said.

" I'm going to root for the Suns when they are winning or losing, but when losing I will point and blame the failing economy on the Referees."- Me.

by antiw0rm on Mar 26, 2009 12:34 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good points...

However, you seem to be forgetting a couple of really good…scratch that…GREAT point guards that came into the league and dominated in the pass first style. I believe there names are…hold on, I have them here somewhere…oh yeah that dude Chris Paul and the other dude Deron WIlliams? Just saying but I understand where you (and the majority of others) are coming from.

by watdogg10 on Mar 26, 2009 12:37 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes...D Will and CP3

are great examples but I don’t think ANYONE said Dragic was going to that great.

I would also add that both of those guys were better scorers as rookies and have developed/improved the other parts of their games. They are both great b/c they have both aspects.

Pretty high standard to compare Dragic too

by Phoenix Stan on Mar 26, 2009 12:51 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Obviously...

But you said you couldn’t think of any examples and I thought I’d throw out a couple

by watdogg10 on Mar 26, 2009 1:54 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh...

And maybe 4 years ago my vertical was 37"…now…not quite but I’ll still dunk on your head!

by watdogg10 on Mar 26, 2009 12:39 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Got a little carried away...

That was more of a generic “dunk on your head”…didn’t mean for it to be directed directly towards you PS, sorry man

by watdogg10 on Mar 26, 2009 2:18 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Last point on Dragic not accurate

While there have been signs that the 3rd and 4th points on creating shots off the dribble and how he responds to pressure are getting a little better the last few games, I too haven’t seen enough to bicker over that.

But the point “Tends to get out of position on defense and plays on heels making it hard for him to defend a hard crossover dribble” is not accurate. This guy’s defense has always been ahead of his offense even if he had to adjust to how much contact he’ll get called for with putting his hands on a guy or fighting through a screen.

He doesn’t get ball faked or bite on a crossover the way you said. Of all our backcourt guys he is the most solid at this. He pressures the ball and whereas at the beginning of the season he would pick up cheap fouls, he adjusted well to how NBA refs will officiate that and stays with and in front of his man beautifully.

He also is not the guy who is out of position a lot. He makes the proper switches and even plays bigger than he is when a switch has forced him into a mismatch. Two instances in that Utah game: a well set screen in the paint had him at the restricted area and the ball went to Okur. Goran stood his ground after a couple of attempts to back him down and I believe Okur put the ball up too strong off the glass.

The second instance came with Utah working the ball around the perimeter and the ball went to Korver in the corner. Goran left Deron Williams and put his body completely up to Kyle Korver and put a had straight up in the air. This is evidence of someone who is paying attention to the scouting reports and knows that Korver will not drive to the hoop, not only that, but he pinned him at an angle where he couldn’t pass out to D-Will.

Goran puts pressure on the ball handler and uses his quickness to stay in front of his man, applies help defense correctly and plays fundamentally sound when put into a mismatch.

I agree with your other points, but the game-by-game evidence goes the other way on that point.

by flyingsquirrelofdeath on Mar 26, 2009 12:43 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Great post

I think your points are solid and this kid can definitely be something special given improvement. Rec’d.

I don’t want breakaway speed. I want break-some-poor-fool-as-I-bowl-you-over power getting 6 yards off a play that should have been stopped for 2 at most.

by sadaraine on Mar 26, 2009 1:00 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

So, there's hope?
In order for Dragic to prove me wrong, I would need to see

Previously, you had not even held out hope.

The points are pretty good, too.

Mmmmm ... Guinness

by JSun on Mar 26, 2009 1:23 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

When Dragic was doubled and the jump balled called, it was Brevin Knight that Dragic was staring down.

Even if it had been Brewer, I like to see that kind of fire.

by Sun Scorched on Mar 26, 2009 2:23 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Hmm...

Mostly solid points. But I really think all these Dragic analysis exists only because the Suns hyped up this guy so much last summer. Maybe they had to do it to justify themselves going through all the hassles of getting him.

But he’s a freaking 2nd round pick. Or you’d say he’s getting mid-to-late-1st-rounder money. But even comparing him to that group, he doesn’t look that bad.

If we wanted to, we could totally pick apart Nash in his rookie year and claim (heck, prove) that he’s a PG fail.

My point is… none of these is his fault. The Suns doesn’t have a real backup PG and he’s thrown into the fire. He’s working hard and trying the best he coud. I hope we can be more appreciative of what he gives us, rather than dwell on what he doesn’t..

by gadogry on Mar 26, 2009 2:25 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

" I'm going to root for the Suns when they are winning or losing, but when losing I will point and blame the failing economy on the Referees."- Me.

by antiw0rm on Mar 26, 2009 2:37 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nash...

Go back and look at Nash’s first year stats, look at who he was backing up (not 1 but 2 good PGs), look at what he had accomplished before he got to the league (the team he took into the tourney had nobody but him whereas Dragic played in the Adriatic league – not the same beast) and look what he did in his 1 start that season – when given the opportunity he performed (compare that to Dragic’s 1 start). I really think that this whole Nash vs. Dragic rookie season comparison is a little tired. Did I know Nash would one day be a 2-time MVP, no but you could tell he’d be a viable option at PG because he had the necessary fundamentals. Remember, I’m not saying Dragic has no future, just that I see him as a combo-guard and not our future PG.

by watdogg10 on Mar 26, 2009 2:45 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also...

I’m more than willing to be proven wrong by Dragic – I mean, I even layed out a plan right there in the story!

by watdogg10 on Mar 26, 2009 2:47 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like Dragic in Gentry’s hands…..Gentry’s the man.

by cabezonication on Mar 26, 2009 5:47 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

i think your points are accurate

except in the context of defense.

The post above by flyingsquirrel explains it. XD

by Azrael on Mar 26, 2009 6:05 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't know

I’m sure all the points made have merit, but after a paragraph or two of reading something, I start to zone out. All I know at this point is that Dragic has been impressing the hell out of me on both ends of the floor, relative to his play under Porter.

"I can shoot with my left hand, I can shoot with my right hand, I'm amphibious"

by Diosnomeama on Mar 26, 2009 6:18 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

i did think that...

dragic getting in the face of brewer last night got him upset enough and intense enough (we all know he has times where he gets a little…passive) to start taking the game into his hands. back to (almost) back 3’s to get our lead up? i dig.

i think if dragic can take all the improvement he’s shown from the beginning of the season and implement it from here on out, he’s going to be just fine.

i do like the tony parker analogy. parker was never really an elite point guard until this year (which can still be debated, but i think he’s up there), and has found his niche under the spurs’ system. while the original “let’s transform the suns into a more spurs type game” has been thrown out the window, i still think gentry knows how to manage a team with this “seven seconds or shaq” game we have adopted.

here’s to hoping that the rookie keeps on improving. i’ve always been on the “i think dragic will pan out” bandwagon, even when the kid was struggling. there were sparks, glimpses of what he was able to do, and then they’d fade. now those sparks are finally turning into embers…now let’s turn them into a flame next year.

by iamtrevorpaxton on Mar 26, 2009 8:13 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

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