Suns Season Preview - An accountability moment
by Seth Pollack on Apr 17, 2009 10:23 AM MDT
in Phoenix Suns Commentary
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PrintThink back with me to fall 2008. The summer was ending. The leaves were turning (in places that have leaves) and the previews were overflowing with hope.
Jeff from the great Celticsblog.com (the blog is great, not the Celtics) coordinated a league-wide blogger preview series which solicited input from all of us.
At the time, we were pretty much the only Suns blog so we were the only participant in the preview series. Now it's time to look back at what we said and have our accountability moment.
Btw - next time you see ESPN or Fox Sports or any other main stream analyst go back and evaluate their predictions you let me know. K. Thx.
Key Losses Departures and Key Additions:
We ran through the list of names coming and faces going but predicted the addition of this:
Defense, rebounding, toughness and accountability
Prediction Grade. D
Defense got worse and rebounding stayed about the same. Physical toughness improved somewhat but it was pretty low to begin with and mental toughness certainly declined (and it wasn't exactly a strength of this team either).
Accountability was really the key. We heard Amare the other day complain that Porter wouldn't let him do what he wanted to do on the floor. Barbosa talked about having the team's shot selection monitored. Porter tried to hold the team accountable and the team resisted.
In the end, it was the sheriff that got run out of this western town while the free-wheeling banditos were left standing.
You can argue that's for the best and that you want to see up-tempo high scoring basketball and that's fine. Just remember for every action there is a reaction and in this case that means defense. Or lack of defense to be more specific.
1. What significant moves were made during the offseason?
Here we looked at each of the new faces and made some specific predictions.
The Dragic...He won't score much but will lead rookies in assists will impress with his passing, vision and general smoothiness with the ball.
Prediction grade: C
Hmmmm, he didn't exactly live up to that hype did he. We won't even look at total assists or assists per game because those numbers reflect playing time. Out of all rookies, he did finish 6th in assists per 48 minutes and 13th in assist/turnover ratio. Not exactly stellar but we did at least see significant improvement as the year progressed.
Rookie Lopez He's a super charged guy who like most young super-charged guys will likely pick up tons of fouls and be wildly inconsistent this year. I do think he will blossom into a very nice NBA center which the Suns desperately need since the other one is kind of...senile
Prediction grade: B
Did a little better on this one. In the fouls per 48 minute category, Robin finished at the #11 spot with 7.6. Mostly of the guys ahead of him though were nobodies like Sun Yue who had lead the stat with an impressive 17.1. The only "named" guys ahead of Robin were Greg Oden with 8.7 and Roy Hibbert with 10.2 per 48 minutes.
Robin languished on the bench most of the season mainly due to the amazingly revitalized play of that senile old guy. No one thought that Shaq's only missed games would be voluntary and that he wouldn't end up missing 20 or so with hip or other frailties that affect the elderly.
With more playing time and stern talking to from The Big Professor, Lopez came on late in the season and showed more intelligent play and signs of improvement. I still think he possess a great package of tools but wonder if he has the desire to put in the work needed to get better. This summer will be very telling for Robin.
Matt Barnes will be back to being Matt Barnes of two years ago. He will start in front Grant Hill (an idea I love because it brings Hill off the bench with Dragic). Barnes is an intense guy that brings another level of tough to Phoenix. He's basically Raja Bell but bigger and with more tattoos. And he can drive and finish too and might even play point guard!?!
Prediction grade: C
He can also show an incredibly poor sense of timing when it comes to jacking up three's. Oh, and that whole Hill of the bench thing didn't turn out so well either.
Alando Tucker is most likely to surprise folk. After four great years as a power forward at Wisconsin he's going to play shooting guard for the Suns. He's great in the lane both on the glass and taking his man to the post and he can shoot well from mid-range and decent from 3. Mostly I am impressed with his on-court maturity. He doesn't look like a guy who barely played in his rookie year. He's going to get some notice this year and he deserves it.
Prediction grade: Incomplete
This one is tough. I still stand behind everything I said but as it turned out, he was battling knee problems all season and never had any kind of consistent opportunity to play.
And then there's that entire new coaching staff thing and the whole ditching of the run-n-gun and something I think they call D Fence?
Prediction grade: F
I think we've said enough on this point.
Notice that Lou Amundson didn't even warrant a prediction and of course no one could have predicted Dudley would ending up here. Just goes to show that an NBA season is very unpredictable.
2. What are the team's biggest strengths?
Amare Stoudemire.
With all the drama from Shaq's mouth and Nash's back and Porter's making the guys do defensive slides in practice the reality is that Amare Freaking Stoudemire is the most offensively dominant player in the game.
Now that he will have a full year playing the power forward instead of being mismatched against bigger-assed Centers we will see that the man actually can play defense as well. We will also see eye protection become cool again. It's about time.
And yes, Steve Nash is still alive and kicking and at least the 3rd or 4th best point guard in the West. Older. Wiser. Still the best pure shooter in the game.
Prediction grade: F for Amare. A+ for Nash
Oh, Amare...so often you disappoint. From ditching the goggles to giving up on your promise to be a feared defensive player. Without the holding and hugging you craved from your coach you retreated into a shell of bitter disappointment. And you totally ruined my prediction for you. Thanks
Nash on the other hand was exactly what I said he was.
3. What are the team's biggest weaknesses?
The Suns are pretty well balanced at all positions and have a nice mix of vets and youth. They will likely struggle as most teams do getting used to a new style of play that includes a motion oriented offense that milks the clock and an emphasis on defense.
Beyond that, the Achilles heal is at Center. We know the Big Heal will probably only play 40-50 games and leaves leave Rookie Lopez carrying a lot of the load. Behind him you end up having to move Amare or Boris Diaw back to the pivot and neither is a good choice. There are also some signals that Pony Boy Amundson will back up Lopez during Shaq's nap time(s).
Prediction grade: B
I got the details wrong regarding Shaq's playing time and Lopez' role as the back up but the main point here was spot on. The Suns lack of front court depth was a huge hole made worse by the trading of Diaw and the Eye of Amare.
4. What are the goals for this team?
- Limit the number of restraining orders
- Adjust to Porter's new "work the clock" style
- Hold teams to under 44 FG% and about 98 points per game
- Avoid too many foot-in-mouth incidents
- Make it back to the Western Conference Finals (I give this about a 20% chance)
- Make Chad Ford eat his words
Prediction grade: D
- Yes.
- No.
- No.
- No.
- Ha!
- Somewhat true. Chad Ford said the Suns would be "very ordinary". They were much worse then that
5. How many fans will the Suns have after people realize they are playing like the Pistons?
Great question. We've already seen the bandwagon lighten and good riddance. The Suns needed to change and since their old coach wouldn't budge, they pulled the trigger on a new guy.
Some people will mourn the passing of the D'Antoni era and for all the excitement he brought and the credit he earned, it was time to move on. Letting the other team score quickly so that you can run it back on them was a blast. So was disco.
So bandwagon fans - you are always welcome in LA. Or New Orleans. Or Philly for that matter.
Suns fans are looking forward to a season of lowered expectations and back to basics basketball. Call us the Little Hot Fundamental.
Predicted Record: 55-27 (why change a good thing)
Overall Prediction Grade: D+
Uh...well....I guess the disco fans won on this one. Boring just isn't a good fit in Phoenix. And about that 55 win prediction? At least I wasn't as bad as Clipper Steve who predicted 41 wins for his team. Ouch.
For more fun with accountability, be sure to check out this great post on Ball Hype with fancy charts and everything show how each team did realative to their bloggers predictions. The winner goes to 48 Minutes of Hell who accuruately predicted the Spurs would have 54 wins. Damn Spurs. Even their bloggers win everything.
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Spurs are easy...
They are the most consistent team in the league – however I’m going to love seeing them struggle in the playoffs without Manu (unless Duncan who’s got to be tired by now and Parker completely just carry that team past the first and second rounds).
The Suns, on the other hand, were an impossible team to predict seeing as they were constantly changing coaches, players and rotations all year. Overall, I think you made a valiant effort – hopefully next season will be a little less chaotic.
+1
we need that consitancy. Whatever changes we make pre-season, we need to stick with those changes throughout the year. One quick note. Anyone else get the feeling from Nash’s comments, that he kinda wants to see Amare go? Talking about building a team with good character guys
Nash has been pushing management to do trades which make our team worse
As a player he pushed hardest for Marion to go even though Marion was the best defender who covered for him all the time.
I think Nash also threw Porter under the bus before Amare did.
So I find it funny that people don’t come down harder on Nash when he refuses to play better defense when he pushed for such decisions and he’s the captain, franchise player and floor general.
ummm...
“As a player he pushed hardest for Marion to go even though Marion was the best defender who covered for him all the time.”
Do you have sources for this?
Nash (more than the rest), Amare and supposed D Antoni pushed for the trade
“Kerr, coach Mike D’Antoni and guard Steve Nash made terrific arguments Wednesday on O’Neal’s behalf, and I’ll admit, when O’Neal pointed to his ring finger while being introduced during the Suns’ game against the New Orleans Hornets, I felt the same jolt I did 16 years ago when Charles Barkley came to town.”
http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/108395
O’Neal talked to Suns players including Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire, The Arizona Republic reported. “I will not let you down,” O’Neal reportedly told Nash on the phone.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3232862
“…They took it to the players, and Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire were unblinking: Get him. For the Suns, they believed they could incorporate Shaq into the system. "If he gets a rebound and passes, we’re gone," D’Antoni said. "He doesn’t have to catch up with us."… If nothing else, the arrival of Shaquille O’Neal ends all that in the locker room. The Suns need him to be a productive player, but Nash is dying for Shaq to burden a share of the leadership. "One of the real positives of this deal is that we have a more pronounced pecking order," Kerr said. "In all the great teams I played on, there was a pecking order, a totem pole. …His presence is magnetic."
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=aw-kerrshaq020708&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
Nash, in particular, has become gloomier as the weight of winning a title falls heavier and heavier upon his slender shoulders. (He turned 34 on Thursday.)
“I think this is going to bring a lot of life back to Steve,” a Suns source said. “He was very revved up after talking to Shaq.”
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/jack_mccallum/02/05/heat.mccallum/
“1. The Suns pulled the trigger because of Steve Nash far more than Pau Gasol.
Nash turns 34 on Thursday. There will be no alarm bells sounded in Phoenix to commemorate the occasion, because Nash has hushed pretty much every doubt about his durability by playing at an MVP level for the past three-plus seasons, but his bosses are realistic. They know that a team relying heavily on Nash and Grant Hill will have only a couple more cracks at the championship that has eluded this franchise for four decades.
“We’ve got a few years here,” Suns president Steve Kerr acknowledged, “where we can really make a push.”
So …
The trade might look like a direct reaction to the Lakers’ grand theft of Gasol from Memphis, but the Suns knew long before that heist that defending the post and surrendering second-chance points have been their downfalls in the playoffs. This decision was made largely because Phoenix decided that it could no longer wait to change a locker-room dynamic that Nash has openly questioned at times, especially when a morale-booster like Shaq suddenly became available.
Nash spoke in glowing terms of Shawn Marion after the deal was announced — “I’m a big fan of Shawn’s,” he said — and has never specifically mentioned names when lamenting the Suns’ occasional dips in togetherness and effort. But knowledgeable sources say that the Suns’ power brokers, feeding off Nash’s growing frustration and exasperation, lost confidence in the group’s ability to win it all without some sort of shake-up. They stopped believing that the Suns’ pre-Shaq core could overcome the behind-the-scenes negativity that typically involved either Marion or Amare Stoudemire without trading one of them away…. “I just think we need a little lift,” Nash conceded. "We probably can improve our chemistry. …
At some point I think there needs to be a healthy balance between being excited and having a spirit about us and at the same time holding each other accountable. I don’t think that balance, for the most part, has been [there]."
Touche.
None of these mention him pushing for Marion to go though… They are just pushing to get Shaq.
I understand that
but he wasn’t saying “trade Marion, trade Marion!” He was saying “bring Shaq here.” I know that he knew it was for Marion, but there’s still a difference.
Experts
Btw – next time you see ESPN or Fox Sports or any other main stream analyst go back and evaluate their predictions you let me know. K. Thx.
The reason they won’t is because for all their highly paid knowledge and expertise, their insight sucks. Any 12 year old fan can pick the Lakers or Cavs, and that’s what they do. The smaller market and surprise team rarely get any love or coverage and probably never will.
Personally, I thought the Suns would be a playoff team easily and Amare would be in discussion for Top 5 players in the league. You didn’t do TOO bad :)
You can't give Nash a A minus
We came down so hard on Amare just becos he claimed he wanted to be a franchise player.
But we refuse to subject Nash to the same level of scrutiny as our franchise player. Nash’s turnovers was getting ridiculous this season for her inability to master simple entry passes and he visibly lost heart in playing critical games this season.
And Nash absolutely refuses to play real defense.
Fact remains that Amare has kept improving over the years, despite some horrendous injuries while Nash will always be Nash.
The double standard is really getting way out of hand because as team captain and the floor general, we need to be way harder on Nash, than on Amare.
I didn't give Nash an A
I gave myself an A for predicting that he would be what he was
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Seth Pollack on Apr 17, 2009 9:40 PM MDT up reply actions
Phoenix Stan, my mistake.
I just don’t think Nash deserves a pass for maintaining his stats without defensive improvement or greater desire to win when Amare gets hell for simply just maintaining his stats. That’s my key point.
we get it, magenta, you want to trade nash...
and you think he’s totally lame..
but it might help if you quelled your burning rage for him long enough to read that stan had given himself an A+ ( not an A-) for his prediction that nash would still be 3rd best PG in the league, etc..
you may now commence telling us all why nash is the worst pg in the league and how we should ship him out for a bag of magic beans…
not at all
he is (and has been for a while) saying that it’s just not fair to give all the blame on Amar’e, which is happening in most of Stan’s posts. However, to be fair, he does criticize Nash often… just not as much, as he is playing well, and Amar’e is not playing at all, because he’s injured, and before it he was too often inconsistent, and actually was a scoring PF who he is instead of being a defensive big which he isn’t.
Once upon a time the Suns got out on the break... and along came Steve sucKerr
Thanks for clarifying for me
I’m a Nash fan but when I see younger guards equalling or bettering his stats when playing good defense, I keep thinking we can’t go on with this glass cannon approach.
The team must improve defensively at an individual and team level. We can’t expect Amare to keep cleaning up for Nash like what Marion and Bell did for Nash.
Amare cleaning up for Nash...
really?
As for Bell, he never covered other teams’ point guards. He did in his prime do a good job on other team’s shooting guards and was replaced by a guy who’s a poor defender.
Marion was the guy that kept the perimeter defense together but don’t forget how poor the Suns used to be on the glass and at defending the paint. One problem was traded for another in replacing Marion with Shaq.
Amare is a guy how has all the tools in the world to be at least a solid defensive player. Just like Marion, he does not deserve a max contract if he can’t be a max player on both ends of the floor. My issue with Amare is not who he is, but who he is relative to what he wants to be paid.
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Seth Pollack on Apr 19, 2009 11:56 AM MDT up reply actions
Ok - that's not
completely true. I do have issues with a guy that isn’t coachable and doesn’t respond well to criticism. But I would have a lot less issue with him if he was making $10m per year and not $17m or $20m
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Seth Pollack on Apr 19, 2009 11:58 AM MDT up reply actions
No offense but...
All of us here seems to expect Amare to make up for the team’s defence deficiencies after the Marion trade.
All of us expected him to vastly pick up his defensive game while not calling on Nash to do the same or even Shaq.
We just assumed that they will never play defense and expect Amare to cover for them. That is the worse possible attitude for the 2 vets leading this team because they are not obliged to provide accountabiliy for their lack of effort on the court. I see Shaq trying. I don’t see Nash doing it for critical games. The fire is gone.
It does not matter whether I like them personally but when u do a bad job, you drag down the team. Defense is part and parcel of the best players in the league.
And I like to bring in the fact that we have not waited near enough for Amare.
Amare had done wonders with his development and coming back from season-ending micro-surgery better than before. If you all think that is easy, just take a look at Gilbert Arenas and his injury saga since 2007.
Whatever criticisms you all may have of him fit Kobe to a T and at the very least, no coach has published a book saying he was uncoacable.
I strongly felt that Amare should have gone for the Olympics as most of the All Stars came back better and more disciplined.
But what would I know?
Except for the fact that Nash alone or with Shaq will not bring us past the first round of future play-offs. The league has changed and gotten much younger and mobile.
We need a real youth movement to save the Suns.
I dun want to trade Nash becos I started watching the Suns becos of him
I have no geographical attachment to the Suns at all. Nash is why I love the Suns and I have made it clear that trading him gives him more pleasure.
http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2009/4/14/834653/trading-nash-seems-easy-but-i-feel
My beef withj you Nash supporters is that you give Amare hell for wanting to be a franchise player but Nash a free pass when he already is our franchise player and out floor leader. And Nash plays worse defense than Amare ever played with utterly no hope of improvement.
I also think a lot of you are making a mistake thinking that SSOS is better than SSOL. It is not. It scores more in the paint, nets more points and is more efficient. But our defense is far more lacking in this trade off.
If you think I’m wrong, how many of us here really question whether the wins of SSOS are actually real improvements or fool’s gold?
Not Nash Loving
If the Shaq / Amare / Nash triumpherate can’t spell defense and youre going to rebuild, then one of the questions is which of these 3 players is likely to get more wins when accompanied by good defensive players.. When you think that through it is easy to see why Nash gets a pass and Amare doesnt.
Props for this, Stan
Most of the time the only retrospection we see from analysts is when they get things right.
If only Hollinger had this courage.
Purchasing my Dragic jersey
Some people have tried to make it seem I am against Phoenix Stan
I have nothing against Phoenix Stan. I am merely holding Nash’s feet to the fire for failing to play better defense and not leading his team better.
This is the same standard that we need to apply to every player on this team from now on. This team will not go anywhere if the players do not play beter defense, especially since we traded our best defenders away in 1.5 season.
Actually, Phoenix Stan has often voiced his dissatisfaction with Nash's effort level and leadership, or lack thereof
I do understand where you are coming from though, that there are basically 2 sides. One which recognises what Nash has done for the organisation, but realise that his deficiencies on the court are really holding us back, as of this season, now, and in the times to come. Moreover, his leadership qualities are extremely suspect after he has shown his lack of fire and passion in super-clutch must-win games, and his nonchalanat, happy-go-lucky attitude towards losing and being kept out of the playoffs.
The other group regard Nash as untouchable under all circumstances, and truthfully, Phoenix Stan has been vocal with his criticism of Nash’s behaviour so it isn’t fair to associate him with this category of people.
I for one, was under the delusion that most of Nash’s deficiencies would be hidden by the interior pairing of Shaq and Stoudemire, two intimidating shot blockers which would help to somewhat make up for the anyone-can-get-past-Nash syndrome. In reality, Amare disappears, Shaq is too slow and doesn’t have any lift anymore, and don’t even get me started on his “staring down” defense at people on the pick-and-roll. That’s positively Pau Gasol-like, although no one harps about Pauline’s pick-and-roll laziness as much. Pauline is a terribly underrated defensive sieve. He pads his stats by stealing rebounds and letting his teammates box out for him, and goes for weakside blocks so he looks like he’s almost a halfway semi-decent defender. But he’s not. Stoudemire would have abused and massacred him if the Lakers Vs Suns materialised. Of course, Kobe would abuse and massacre Richardson who is an equal defensive sieve. Hill just doesn’t have the footspeed to keep up with Kobe, and Barbarosa is far too small to guard him. It always cuts both ways.
+ 1: Nash supporters should try understanding the case against Nash this season
I have even apologised to Nash in an earlier post here. I can’t help but feel that they are trying to avoid answering my legitimate points about Amare and Nash by making it seem that I am attacking one of the organisers of this blog. If you are, shame on you.
Thanks for trying to speak common sense to some of the fans here. On your other point, Shaq and Amare barely does enough to cover each other in the previous season. let alone Nash this season.
And I agree with you. I am the type of fans that feel some of our vets may hold back our rooks if we are serious about a youth movement and a different ball movement that pays more than lip service to defence.
To be fair, Shaq has gotten better, fitter and slimmer and he really plays hard most of the games. As for Amare, he played well when he was made the franchise player in 2007-2008 after Shaq came on board in the “Amare project saga” i.e. over 20 points and nearly 10 rebounds while leading the team in blocks.
Amare did not play well this year when the focus of the team was changed drastically by Porter and by Shaq’s wishes and everyone simply assumed that he can magically and immediately transform himself to a defensive thread who focus on rebounds, blocks and defense. That’s not Amare.
I wish we fans will have more patience with our team and the younger players. I also wish that they not be so quick to condemn our team when they don’t play well. Case in point: We gave up on SSOL after 4 years when it took MJ 7 years to win a game. We wrote off our Suns as a defensive non-entity when they have steadily improved their defense to 13 best in the league in the season before the Marion and KT trade.
I also wish we can make up our mind about what we want. If we agree that SSOL will not work and we trade away the players and coach who made it work, it’s time for a new direction and major surgery and we should keep our eye on that.
Please note that scoring over 100 points no longer win games for the Suns in this league who is dominated by young and athletic players. If you still think so, I think it’s way too late to regret abandoning SSOL. SSOS is a SSOL wannabe that makes us even more of a glass cannon in NBA.
And every team is going to have our number next season if we don’t change in this post-season. Mark my words.
If you have to ask...
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Seth Pollack on Apr 20, 2009 9:48 AM MDT up reply actions
Sorry but I was more talking to other Nash supporters who just give him a pass on D
It’s really not healthy. We can’t just look at hos offence and see it as a half full situation when the league has at least close to 10 good PGs in the league that shoot almost as well and play better than average D i.e. CP3, DWill, Tony Parker, Jameer Nelson, Mo Williams, Delonte West, Russell Westbrook, Rondo, BRoy, Derrick Rose.
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