The Suns' (slim) draft lottery odds
by gadogry on May 13, 2009 7:44 AM MDT
21 comments
The last time the Suns had anything to do with the draft lottery was in 2007, when we had Atlanta's top-3 protected first round pick. Being a math geek myself, I needed to know the exact chance of us keeping their pick. Then I realized that to do that one actually has to calculate ALL chances of which team is picking at which positions, since these odds are all interconnected with each other. Then after some crunching, I came up with a table of all the odds and sent it to Henry Abbott at Truehoop (I wasn't aware of the existence of BSotS back then), who encouraged me to publish it on the web myself. So I started a little blog, and Truehoop ended up linking to it a few times.
Long story short (I can say that even if I've told you the long story already), I now have a program that, given the teams' records and tiebreakers, can figure out the chances of which team is picking where in no time.
Anyways, here are the numbers for 2009. They are all percentages. For example, The Clippers (LAC) have a 19.53% chance of picking 4th.
| Pick# |
Teams |
|||||||||||||
| SAC | WAS | LAC | OKC | MIN | MEM | GST | NYK | TOR | MIL | NJ | CHA | IND | PHO | |
| 1 | 25.0 | 17.8 | 17.7 | 11.9 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 21.46 | 17.36 | 17.29 | 12.57 | 8.43 | 8.33 | 4.93 | 3.26 | 2.0 | 1.18 | 1.06 | 0.83 | 0.71 | 0.59 |
| 3 | 17.72 | 16.45 | 16.41 | 13.24 | 9.46 | 9.36 | 5.76 | 3.87 | 2.4 | 1.43 | 1.29 | 1.01 | 0.87 | 0.72 |
| 4 | 35.82 | 34.67 | 19.53 | 9.98 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 5 | -- | 13.73 | 25.02 | 34.99 | 26.27 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 6 | -- | -- | 4.05 | 16.05 | 38.5 | 41.4 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 7 | -- | -- | -- | 1.26 | 9.32 | 29.4 | 60.01 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 8 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 0.42 | 3.9 | 23.17 | 72.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 9 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 0.1 | 1.79 | 16.76 | 81.35 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 10 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 0.03 | 0.8 | 12.17 | 86.99 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 11 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 0.01 | 0.38 | 9.2 | 90.41 | -- | -- | -- |
| 12 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 0.19 | 6.26 | 93.55 | -- | -- |
| 13 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 0.08 | 3.89 | 96.03 | -- |
| 14 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 0.02 | 1.79 | 98.18 |
So as everyone around here probably knows already, we have a 0.5% chance of hitting the jackpot and picking 1st. What you may not have known is that we also have a 0.59% chance of getting the 2nd pick, and a 0.72% chance of getting the 3rd pick. That's about a 1-in-55 chance of lucking out (and 54-in-55 chance of picking 14th).
The last time we had ATL's pick, we had a 62.22% chance of keeping it, and we all know how that went down. The Hawks drafted Al Horford and we instead got their pick the following year, which turned out to be Fropez.
The odds for us are much longer this time, and we really shouldn't be getting our hopes up. But hey, anything's possible!
The lottery is taking place next Tuesday (May 19th).
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Since this is the
offseason, a little hypothetical thought experimenting is in order.
If we hit the jackpot with the #1 overall pick, who would we take?
I love Ty Lawson, but we have so much invested in Dragic that this seems unlikely.
I am not sure how Hansbrough’s game translates to the NBA, so I would stay away from him.
Thabeet is the kind of player we need, but I don’t know how much we are going to run and if he can keep up.
Any other thoughts on players? DeJuan Blair, perhaps?
"it’s a great time to be a Tiger" - leghumpingjihadkiller
by Snakebitten on May 13, 2009 9:45 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn't we have to go with Black Griffin if we got number one???
by Pyromnc on May 13, 2009 9:54 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
duh
If the Suns drafted Hansborough with the 1st pick, all hell would break lose in Phoenix
by Funky Flapsack on May 13, 2009 11:00 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
no way.
if we somehow landed the first overall pick, i’d cut a bitch if we drafted hansbrough over griffin.
just sayin’.
by iamtrevorpaxton on May 14, 2009 12:47 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not even a question...
Blake Griffin is the ONLY option no matter who gets the number 1 pick and Rubio should be the first PG off of the board.
Something to look for in the draft is where Pendergraff goes in the second round – I watched him play A LOT this past year and he could be a second round steal – basically Joakim Noah with a better 8 – 10 ft game for a fraction of the cost
by watdogg10 on May 13, 2009 2:44 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
yo snake...
if we were to win the #1 pick, it’s a no brainer, we pick Eric Devendorf! DUH!
by Aluminum Foyle on May 14, 2009 6:22 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
i dunno about number one
but he’s in the top 150
by stingy d on May 14, 2009 11:06 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
i can't even joke about it
that guy fuckin blows so god damn hard… entirely useless. i love that he declared. hopefully his bloated ego will get him a non-paid summer-fall-winter-spring-summer-fall-winter-spring-summer-fall-winter-spring-summer-fall-winter-spring-summer-fall-winter-spring-summer-fall-winter-spring-summer-fall-winter-spring-summer-fall-winter-spring-summer-fall-winter-spring-summer-fall-winter-spring-summer-fall-winter-spring-summer-fall-winter-spring vacation
by stingy d on May 14, 2009 11:08 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
in other words...
you hope he lives off of welfare?
by Aluminum Foyle on May 15, 2009 8:29 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
another question
Do any of you know the exact number of votes of each player for the first, second and third All NBA Team?
by matrix7 on May 14, 2009 2:56 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Don't think so
It’s not possible to retrieve that information from the numbers in the NBA news release.
With the 14th pick of the 2009 NBA draft, the Pheonix Suns select... 3 million dollars!
by gadogry on May 14, 2009 5:14 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
here's that info
2008-09 ALL-NBA FIRST TEAM
Position Player, Team (1st Team Votes) Points
Forward LeBron James, Cleveland (122) 610
Forward Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas (35) 383
Center Dwight Howard, Orlando (116) 598
Guard Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers (119) 604
Guard Dwyane Wade, Miami (103) 572
2008-09 ALL-NBA SECOND TEAM
Position Player, Team (1st Team Votes) Points
Forward Tim Duncan, San Antonio (39) 378
Forward Paul Pierce, Boston (27) 330
Center Yao Ming, Houston (8) 354
Guard Brandon Roy, Portland 189
Guard Chris Paul, New Orleans (32) 424
2008-09 ALL-NBA THIRD TEAM
Position Player, Team (1st Team Votes) Points
Forward Carmelo Anthony, Denver (2) 116
Forward Pau Gasol, L.A. Lakers (2) 165
Center Shaquille O’Neal, Phoenix 68
Guard Chauncey Billups, Denver 131 Guard Tony Parker, San Antonio (1) 158
Other players receiving votes, with point totals (first team votes in parentheses): Deron Williams, Utah, 105; Kevin Garnett, Boston, 72; Chris Bosh, Toronto, 56; Joe Johnson, Atlanta, 36, Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City, 34; Danny Granger, Indiana, 25; David West, New Orleans, 12; Mo Williams, Cleveland, 10; Al Jefferson, Minnesota, 8; Steve Nash, Phoenix, 7; Antawn Jamison, Washington, 7; Ray Allen, Boston, 6; Nene, Denver, 6; Devin Harris, New Jersey, 5; LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland, 4; David Lee, New York, 4; Rajon Rondo, Boston, 2; Vince Carter, New Jersey, 1; Paul Millsap, Utah, 1; O.J. Mayo, Memphis, 1; Mehmet Okur, Utah, 1; Jermaine O’Neal, Miami, 1; Hedo Turkoglu, Orlando, 1; Derrick Rose, Chicago, 1; Caron Butler, Washington, 1; Carlos Boozer, Utah, 1; Andre Miller, Philadelphia, 1; Andre Iguodala, Philadelphia, 1.
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Seth Pollack on May 14, 2009 8:23 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought matrix7 was looking for things like
how many 2nd place votes Chris Paul got. Which you couldn’t tell from these numbers.
But you can tell some interesting things from it… like, at least 2 people put both Dwight Howard and Yao Ming on their first team.
With the 14th pick of the 2009 NBA draft, the Pheonix Suns select... 3 million dollars!
by gadogry on May 14, 2009 8:31 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really wanted to know the difference in votes between Gasol and Duncan
by matrix7 on May 14, 2009 1:07 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Statistic is very similar. The Spurs are eliminated in 1st round, the Lakers are potential finalists and yet the difference between them is too big. In my view inexplicable.
by matrix7 on May 14, 2009 1:16 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm fine
with Duncan over Gasol. Duncan is a much better defender and leader.
The more inexplicable thing to me is Paul Pierce over Gasol. I thought the 2008 Finals is not considered to be a part of the 2009 season, but maybe voters operate differently.
With the 14th pick of the 2009 NBA draft, the Pheonix Suns select... 3 million dollars!
by gadogry on May 14, 2009 6:29 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm fine with everythign here
except jermaine o’neal getting a vote. and vince carter being allowed to get votes.
by stingy d on May 14, 2009 11:11 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
That was almost as bad as PJ Brown appearing on someone’s MVP ballot the other year… or when a Toronto homer voted Bargnani for ROY (over Roy), or dare I say it, when our boy Nash won his 2nd MVP in 2006.
And if you’d let me go on, Kobe over CP3 last year was bad too. Media goes for the big names… that’s also the reason why Shaq made 3rd team this year.
And… it’s sort of funny that not a single comment of this post is directly related to the post itself…
With the 14th pick of the 2009 NBA draft, the Pheonix Suns select... 3 million dollars!
by gadogry on May 15, 2009 6:43 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great post — excellent reference point — thank you.
by NBR on May 16, 2009 10:50 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
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