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What if Shaq had been traded to Cleveland

One of the surprises coming out of this February's trade deadline were reports that the Suns and Cavs were very close to a deal that would have sent Shaquille O'Neal to Cleveland.

The deal proposed by the Cavs would have sent Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic to Phoenix while the Suns were asking for Wally Szczerbiak's expiring contract instead of Wallace.

Had the deal gone the Suns way, Phoenix would have saved $2.7m in luxury tax this season and would be looking at this summer's free agency with a savings of $19.5m.

While many casual Suns fans would have scoffed at trading the lovable Shaq for Wally and Sasha, the team would be positioned this summer to spend about $10m on free agents and still be below the tax line for next year. That could have landed the Suns a couple of nice players like Marcin Gortat, Joel Anthony, Chris Wilcox or perhaps David Lee. There are a lot of good options this summer for teams that have $10m to spend on free agents.

The inclusion of Ben Wallace and his additional $14m next year instead of Wally Z would have dramatically changed the financial picture for the Suns. This deal would have saved Phoenix $2m this season and would have cleared $5.5m for this summer which isn't even enough to get the Suns under the tax line. 

In other words, the difference between the two deals was $14.7m in salary relief. It's no wonder Kerr and Sarver weren't willing to move Shaq for a $5.5m savings but should the Cavs have pulled the trigger on Kerr's offer of Shaq for Wally and Sasha?

 

 

Star-divide

At the time, most people (myself included) felt that it would be a mistake to insert Shaq onto a Cavs team that was rolling and happy. Nobody knows better then Phoenix fans that Shaq doesn't just cause a ripple when he arrives. He's a giant bolder dropped in a fish pond.

Looking at the Cavs playoff performance against the Magic, however, you can't help but think that having Shaq's low post scoring and interior defense would have pushed Cleveland over the top.

Cleveland rolled through the regular season based on their exception chemistry and defensive effort but as usually happens, their weaknesses have been exposed in a seven game series.

The Cavs have no other option beyond James that can create easy looks in the paint.

Their best scoring big man is reliant on jump shots to get his points and unless LeBron is creating wide open looks for Varejao or someone is getting an easy put back, they are entirely reliant on outside shooting. The Magic have game planned for this and used their exceptional perimeter defenders - Lee and Pietrus - to shut down any other Cavs that threatened to get hot.

If you put Shaq on this team you get about the same result as Big Z on the pick and roll but you get better inside defense on Howard, better rebounding and a low post option that can score at a high percentage. The Cavs would be able to mix and match Shaq, Big Z, Andy and Ben giving them far more depth and allowing LeBron to get more rest.

The numbers drove both teams decisions when it came time to evaluate the trade options. The Suns made the right call by rejecting the Cavs offer but in retrospect it would seem that Danny Ferry probably cost his team a ring by rejecting the Suns deal.

Poll
Should the Cavs have accepted the Suns offer and traded for Shaq?
Yes. With Shaq, the Cavs would be much much closer to a ring
348 votes
No. Shaq would have disrupted the Cavs and made them worse
41 votes
The Suns shouldn't have traded Shaq even for the better deal
28 votes
Shaq who?
18 votes

435 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 20 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Not only would Shaq take some of the pressure off of Lebron but

he would also be able to guard Dwight Howard better. I think if the Cavs get Shaq at the deadline there is no doubt that they would be in a much better situation than they are now because as of right now it looks like Orlando is going to win this series.

by Pyromnc on May 29, 2009 10:03 AM MST reply actions  

Shaq wouldn't have done much for the Cavs versus the Magic

I’m sorry but the Cavs decision not to obtain Shaq hasn’t cost them a championship. Shaq is great on the offensive end and terrible on the high pick and roll defense. The Cavs have been great on offense and horrible on the high pick and roll. The Cavs would be in the same spot with Shaq but probably even more frustrated because O’Neal hadn’t done more for them. Did Shaq improve the Suns defense? Didn’t think so, so why would he have improved the Cavs? Plus rebounding hasn’t bee what has hurt the Cavs. They have out rebounded the Magic in all but the first game of the series and are a +10 in rebounding for the series. Any added value Shaq could provide in rebounding really wouldn’t fix much.

by akaespo on May 29, 2009 10:08 AM MST reply actions  

Great?

The Cavs were great on offense in Game 5 (50%FG), and pretty great in Game 1 (.489%FG). But their respective shooting percentages in Games 2-4 were: .455%, .372%, and .448%. Now considering they’re playing Orlando, which is a good defensive team, I wouldn’t say that they’ve been bad in any game except Game 3, but I wouldn’t say they’ve been “great” either, particularly their 3P shooting which is down almost 10% from their season average. If anything, they’ve simply been “solid.”

I would agree, however, that their main problem in this series has been their defense, both on the pick and roll and in the paint. I mean, Dwight Howard is shooting a mind boggling .645% for the series. Some of the percentage is surely attributable to the pick and roll but much of it is also attributable to the fact that the Cavs simply do not have any one who can guard him in the low post (which is saying a lot b/c he isn’t really that effective of a post up player).

So if you add Shaq and he takes Z’s minutes (which would have to be the case, since you surely could not play them together), then what you end up with is better interior scoring and better interior defense along with a marginal difference on pick and roll D (Z is horrible as well). Considering how close this series has been, that might be enough to push the Cavs over the top. Because I don’t think Shaq could make their pick and roll D any worse, so it’s at least reasonable to argue that whatever gains the Cavs got with his interior scoring and D would all be upside. A just a little bit of upside would probably have been enough to have titled this series the otherw way.

Of course, this all assumes that Shaq would actually help the Cleveland offense, which I’m not sure is true. He would probably help get more open 3s, but his his lack of mid-range game would make him useless when the Cavs switch to their 1-4 offensive sets, since essentially he’d just be in Lebron’s way. Plus, having Shaq in the playoffs always makes a team vulnerable to the good’ol Hack-a-Shaq.

So while I’d agree with you that’s its probably too conclusive to say that not trading for Shaq cost the Cavs a championship, I would not agree that Shaq’s incompetence on the pick and roll has anything to do with it. The Cavs are already so incompetent on the pick and roll I doubt that he could make things much worse. Plus, his interior D would probably help. But I would question how much his offense would really help the Cavs, as a space-eater like Shaq seems somewhat incompatible with the Lebron iso show.

Purchasing my Dragic jersey

by rosewood on May 29, 2009 10:56 AM MST up reply actions  

Exactly

No change on pick and roll. Better man on man D on Howard.

Offensively, you’re right that he would get in LeBron’s way but he would also be able to take pressure off LeBron especially early in the game. Imagine going to Shaq early in the game which would put more pressure on Howard defensively and most importantly save LeBron for later. You could also give LeBron a few more minutes of rest by running the offense through Shaq while LeBron rest. Right now, with LeBron off the floor they go from mediocre to horrible offensively.

Late in the game you pull Shaq and give LeBron the ball like they are doing already which also limits the exposure from Hack a Shaq.

by Seth Pollack on May 29, 2009 11:12 AM MST up reply actions  

And btw

When the Suns offensive has looked good, Shaq didn’t clog the lane for our slashers or Nash.

shaq and Amare didn’t seem to work well but I wouldn’t assume that LeBron couldn’t work on the floor w/ Shaq. Shaq’s man would be forced to either help off of him leaving Shaq open for a drop off or O rebound or Shaq’s defender (Howard) would have to stay home giving LeBron more space to attack the rim

by Seth Pollack on May 29, 2009 11:49 AM MST up reply actions  

I don't think its a definite that he wouldn't help

I was just saying I don’t think it’s clear or like JSun said it’s a “toss-up.” They might coexist fine, but as you said he is a bit of a boulder, so it’s at least questionable that it would have worked out especially with only a couple of months to adjust.

Also, the trade would have made the already unbearable Kobe/Lebron hype so ridiculous that I would have probably stopped watching or at least started watching on mute.

Purchasing my Dragic jersey

by rosewood on May 29, 2009 12:07 PM MST up reply actions  

"started" watching on mute?

You don’t do that already?

Mmmmm ... Guinness

by JSun on May 29, 2009 12:34 PM MST up reply actions  

Of course not

If I watched on mute, how would I know which players were “playing with force” and which ones were not? I mean, that’s the key to basketball. Play. With. Force.

It’s like Star Wars.

Purchasing my Dragic jersey

by rosewood on May 29, 2009 12:39 PM MST up reply actions  

I don't need to listen

I can sense it

Mmmmm ... Guinness

by JSun on May 29, 2009 12:42 PM MST up reply actions  

Jeff Van Gundy

Every time this guy is calling a game, I feel like he is tryin to ensure than he never gets a head coaching job ever again.

"I’m tired of hearing about money, money, money, money, money. I just want to play the game, drink Pepsi, wear Reebok." ~Shaq

by Max_in_Missouri on May 29, 2009 1:45 PM MST up reply actions  

That's what I love about SVG

he says what he thinks and doesn’t give f-k if it pissed of the league

by Seth Pollack on May 29, 2009 2:34 PM MST up reply actions  

Yes, not to mention tiring out AND drawing fouls on Howard

Howard fouled out in 4 of the games, and having to deal with 350 lbs of Shaq, it’s hard to imagine how it could have been any better. Howard’s inside dominance was the biggest overriding factor in the series, and Shaq could have helped to negate a good chunk of that. Shaq might get in Lebron’s way if the Cavs wanted to iso, but keep in mind that Shaq would probably only get 25-30 mins. Surely, they could mix the minutes such that Shaq can get shots while Lebron rests. I predicted Magic in 6, and now I can laugh at everyone else who didn’t =) I also predicted the Suns would be a 4th seed and get into the WCF, but fudge that.

by felixthm on May 31, 2009 9:43 AM MST up reply actions  

Rebounding (and general agreement)

I’m not sure of the precise statistics, but Howard gets a huge amount of points on offensive put-backs. Shaq would minimize.

We also saw how Perkins was able to move Howard and effectively eliminate the low-post. Shaq could more easily move Howard than Perkins.

The offensive help is a toss-up. The slow-down system favors Shaq, but would LeBron make low-post entry passes in lieu of drives and scores/kicks. With absolutely no evidence, I think LeBron would probably do so.

Overall, I think that the Cavs would be better equipped to come out of the East with Shaq in the lineup. I don’t konw if he’d be a huge help against the Western Conference Champ, though.

Mmmmm ... Guinness

by JSun on May 29, 2009 11:14 AM MST up reply actions  

My triumphant return

Of course the Cavs could have used Shaq in this series! To exactly what degree, who can say. But I def feel comfortable saying this: Anyone who feels the Cavs would not be in better shape with Shaq (acquired under either of the 2 proposed scenarios) in the lineup is truly an idiot who has no business so much as watching basketball.

Obviously Shaq is going to be more effective defensively than Z against Howard. Afterall, he is probably the only man in the league stronger than Dwight. Howard has very limited offensive moves that are predicated on his power and athleticism. By playing against a stronger player in Shaq, Howard’s strength advantage would be neutralized. Z is a great guy with soft hands, but his feet aren’t holding up. His body (and style of play) just don’t work well against a player with such a powerful inside game, like Howard. What better way to counter a powerful inside player than with a more powerful insider player, like Shaq? Plus, as much of a defensive beast as Howard is, he still cannot guard Shaq 1-on-1. This was very clear by the last time the Magic played the Suns in Orlando a few months back. Yes, the Magic won, but had anyone else on the Suns besides the Diesel shown up, the Suns could have taken it. Howard and Shaq had pretty much identical stats that game, but Shaq fought a double the whole time and played Howard straight up. Can you imagine what LeBron could do with a dominant player in the post who was a constant threat of putting up a high-percentage shot and nearly always commands a double-team??? If you think Cleveland’s offense would “slow down” too much with Shaq in the lineup, you need to stop drinking the kool-aid. Cleveland runs quite a few half-court sets (the game slows down A LOT in the playoffs, for those who don’t know the NBA) and I’m sure LeBron would love to have a legimate post player as an option.

"I’m tired of hearing about money, money, money, money, money. I just want to play the game, drink Pepsi, wear Reebok." ~Shaq

by Max_in_Missouri on May 29, 2009 1:40 PM MST reply actions  

Hey
Anyone who feels the Cavs would not be in better shape with Shaq (acquired under either of the 2 proposed scenarios) in the lineup is truly an idiot who has no business so much as watching basketball.

That’s just not cool. Once you start talking like that the whole point to having a social forum to discuss basketball goes out the window. It becomes about nothing but personal attacks and “being right.”

That said, I don’t think anyone was saying (or at least I wasn’t) Shaq would certainly not make the Cavs better. The question at hand is would he make them sufficiently better so that they would win the championship this year.

If it is idiocy to speculate (not assert but rather just say it is reasonably possible) that inserting (two months before the playoffs) one of the most dominant personalities and ball-dominant players in the league who also can’t run or shoot into a rather efficient offense based on spot-up shooting and another extremely dominant personality who is also extremely ball-dominant might cause that offense as much harm as benefit, than I am proud, deeply proud, of my idiocy.

Purchasing my Dragic jersey

by rosewood on May 29, 2009 2:12 PM MST up reply actions  

Settle down...

That wasn’t a personal attack…..as it wasn’t directed at, well, any person. You’re truly jumping the gun and trying to be the moral police of the blog. Its completely unwarranted.

I was simply stating my case that Shaq would have made the Cavs significantly better and that I believe that fact to be so self evident that no reasonable person could deny it. That’s all, no reason to get your panties in a bunch.

"I’m tired of hearing about money, money, money, money, money. I just want to play the game, drink Pepsi, wear Reebok." ~Shaq

by Max_in_Missouri on Jun 1, 2009 1:54 PM MST up reply actions  

I have been thinking about thise alot...

And while I agree with the assertion that the Cavs would have been better off, in this series, with Shaq, the financial considerations didn’t make sense at the time.

I will say this, I wouldn’t be surprised if this deal is resurrected this summer, with Ben Wallace and Shaq once again at the forefront. Wallace’s deal is expiring next summer, as is Shaq’s I believe, and the Cavs could include Sasha who is only guaranteed 1.5 mil of his 4 million dollar deal.

Something to watch for….

FTS

FearTheSword

SBNation's Cleveland Cavaliers Blogger

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by John Bena (aka CavsBlogger) on May 30, 2009 3:52 PM MST reply actions  

Not enough

Both Wallace and Shaq have expiring contracts and Shaq’s is much bigger and he’s a much much better player of the two.

Why would the Suns trade one expiring contract for a smaller one? Getting Wallace and Sasha and then cutting Sasha would only net the Suns $5.5m which isn’t enough to move Shaq for what’s left of Big Ben and the Cavs don’t have any other interesting pieces to trade either.

by Seth Pollack on May 30, 2009 10:47 PM MST up reply actions  

J.J. Hickson

is pretty interesting.

But yeah, the trade doesn’t make much sense anymore for the Suns.

Purchasing my Dragic jersey

by rosewood on May 30, 2009 11:08 PM MST up reply actions  

The Cavaliers lost their chance to land Shaq

They could try again the season after, at best. Haha. With Wally’s money coming off, the Cavs should be able to offer 8-10 million for Shaq, which would seem pretty fair value given that the considerations of Shaq’s age versus his production are thrown in.

by felixthm on May 31, 2009 9:46 AM MST reply actions  

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