Time to Mock the Draft (and rehash last year's Mockery)
by Seth Pollack on Jun 17, 2009 10:56 AM MDT
in Commentary
29 comments
The great philosopher and basketball guru Terrence Williams tweeted the other day that people that run mock drafts were "kicked out of chess clubs and couldn't swim that well, LOL" so they are not to be believed. Certainly an interesting and highly debatable point made by Mr. Williams and it got me thinking about how the Mocks fare against the actual drafts.
Being the fan of accountability that I am, I went back and did a quick comparison of the 2008 SBN Mock draft with the actual 2008 draft. You can see the full comparison chart here. Overall, I would say that the Mocks did pretty well.
A few wins for the mock:
- The Knicks picked Gallinari at #6 while the Mocks had him falling to the Suns at #15. So far anyway, I would say the Mocks got that one right but perhaps if Danilo comes back healthy then D'Antoni will be justified in taking his Italian buddy's son so high and ahead of Bayless or Brook Lopez
- The Mock had Anthony Randolph going 8th to the Bucks instead of Joe Alexander. Randolph ended up going 14th. Can we all agree now that Randolph > Alexander?
- Courtney Lee looks like the big sleeper of last year's draft falling to the Cavs at 19 in the Mock and to the Magic at 22 in the real. The Mock at least picked him before the actual
- Another big win for the Mock was Mario Chalmers going 20th to the Nuggets while the GM's let him fall all the way into the 2nd round
Of course the GM's had some wins too...
- Jason Thompson being picked 12th by the Kings was a great choice while the Mocks let him fall to the Jazz at 23. I am a big JT fan.
- The Nets picking Ryan Anderson at 21 certainly looks better then the Mocks having him go 27th
- And the big fail of the Mock was the Warriors picking DeAndre Jordan 14th. We Mockers should have let him go late in the 1st or early in the 2nd which is where he actually ended up
In the top 6 or so there were some differences with where Westbrook, Bayless and Gordon went but I don't think you can argue that the order any of those guys were taken was wrong as long as they were picked in the top 7 which they were by the Mocks. Bayless of course fell to the Pacers at 11 but the Blazers snapped him up by trading the 13th pick (Rush) and Jarret Jack.
Bayless didn't get big minutes like those other guys but that's because he was playing on a much better team. Bayless will likely be just as good as Westbrook and Gordon. That trio of athletic scoring guards is going to be around for a long long time.
So there you have it Terrence, the poor swimming, chess club failure Mock drafters did pretty well last year.
That brings us to this year's Mock which Ridiculous Scott at Ridiculous Upside is managing. So far, 11 picks have been made.
The 2009 SB Nation Mock Draft thus far:
1. Los Angeles Clippers - Clips Nation: Blake Griffin
2. Memphis Grizzlies - 3 Shades of Blue: Ricky Rubio
3. Oklahoma City Thunder - Welcome to Loud City: James Harden
4. Sacramento Kings - Sactown Royalty: Tyreke Evans
5. Washington Wizards - Bullets Forever: Hasheem Thabeet
6. Minnesota Timberwolves - Canis Hoopus: Stephen Curry
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I was going to do this!
But am glad you did. Good work, Mr. Stan.
Blogging at RidiculousUpside, where we converse with recently fired mascots.
by Scott Schroeder on Jun 17, 2009 11:09 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Man-crush
Stan,
I know you have a total man-crush on Courtney Lee, and he was solid as a rookie but I’m not sure if he was the big sleeper of the draft. Certainly, he was a sleeper but his per minute numbers aren’t much different from Batum’s who was drafted three slots lower and is three years younger and from another country or Chalmers who was drafted 12 slots lower and is a year younger. Both of these guys started on playoff teams as well and both are also excellent defenders. So I think that you could make just as good of a case that they’re the big sleepers (You know I’d say Batum). Time will sort this out, and certainly the Magic have done well with Lee, but given the choice it’d be interesting which player GMs would take at this point given the choice of the three (and not considering team needs). Last, both Hollinger’s and Berri’s metrics would put Batum and Chalmers pretty far ahead of Lee in terms of productivity/efficiency if you’re in to that kind of thing.
As far as this year’s draft, I think I’m indifferent, except I’d love to see the Suns take either Nan de Colo or Paul Harris in the 2nd.
Purchasing my Dragic jersey
by rosewood on Jun 17, 2009 11:40 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Courtney Lee was frickin Amazing
Batum and Chalmers got much easier assignments, but their VORP rating was way below Lee’s. I think it’s pretty much inarguable that the Magic’s best lineup in the playoffs was Alston-Lee-Turkoglu-Lewis-Howard (with Pietrus playing well in ONE series). When you’re part of the best 5 in a Finals team, I say you’ve done pretty well.
by UASun on Jun 17, 2009 12:46 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair point
I guess I just have Lee on the mind. Both Batum and Chalmers would go higher if the draft was done again. I think that Lee would still be the first pick of those three though but he also was drafted before them originally.
As much as I like Batum and Chalmers both I still have more questions about either’s long term potential then I do w/ Lee. I am not even going to try and explain why that is.
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Seth Pollack on Jun 17, 2009 2:17 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Courtney Lee
I’d put him slightly ahead of Batum and Chalmers because I believe he was a bigger factor in his teams success than the other two. Batum and Chalmers both became starters on good teams and certainly all three are definite sleepers. Lee was coming off the bench on an elite team and carved out a nice role for himself quickly, becoming a really important player for them by the playoffs. He was pretty consistent in the playoffs even after getting his face smashed by Dwight Howard, and probably should have played more. I do think he played more like a veteran than the other two which made him one of the best picks last year.
Brook Lopez probably doesn’t qualify as a sleeper but he was a very underrated rookie last year. The Nets had a lot of problems but it’s rare to get a reliable 7 footer who does most things well, including a great FT%. He’ll probably be pretty good for years to come
by runningdonut on Jun 17, 2009 5:34 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think
if you asked me who was the biggest sleeper just based on this year’s performance, I’d see a fair argument for Lee, since Orlando was the best team of the three and he did have a larger role than Batum in his team’s success (I don’t know if that’s true of Chalmers though).
But, to me, when you look at overall potential (i.e. in five years who will we think was the biggest sleeper) I think the fact that Batum is three years younger than Lee can’t really be overstated. Considering that their performance was at least arguably equivalent then, I’d take Batum just because of his age and the fact that, unlike Lee and Chalmers, his physical attributes are elite.
Purchasing my Dragic jersey
by rosewood on Jun 17, 2009 9:08 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
1st rule of chess club, is you don't talk about chess club
"True glory consists of doing what deserves to be written, and writing what deserves to be read".
by Pliny the Elder on Jun 17, 2009 12:28 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
1st rule of chess club....
girls are gross.
by Aisander D on Jun 17, 2009 1:31 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
no way Jordan Hill falls to all the way to No. 10
if he does, we should consider trading up to get him…… something like the trailblazers did with Jarret Jack and #13 for #11…… we could do something like Matt Barnes + #15 for the #10
Whats up doc?
by RottPhiler on Jun 17, 2009 1:14 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
After so many years of mediocrity with the draft
Suns have to make a splash this year. Its the only way ill be satisfied. We need to move into the top 10. Dont know who we’ll pick, but it has to happen
by Funky Flapsack on Jun 17, 2009 1:50 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Still not seeing any names
for the Suns at 14…we are going to have to make a pick here pretty soon people…
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Seth Pollack on Jun 17, 2009 2:18 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Need some choices
Gotta see who goes ahead of us.. At this point i guess James Johnson would be okay
by Funky Flapsack on Jun 17, 2009 3:15 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doug and Wolf
They are trying to build him up, and one of the positive things they say, is that he compares to Big Baby Davis. And that’s supposed to be enticing? In the Lottery? What a waste of the 14th
by Funky Flapsack on Jun 17, 2009 3:33 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think ...
The Suns need someone tough who loves to rebound, and I don’t really see a superstar falling to us at 14.
by jburning on Jun 17, 2009 4:14 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
hmmmm
We wont be trading any of our players or up the draft.
Jonny Flynn, Earl Clark, James Johnson, Gerald Henderson or Terrence Williams
are kinda safe to pick anyone else other than the guys listed above i would not be happy with.
in the second round we should DEFINTLEY pick Paul Harris.Others i like are Lester Hudson or Sergio Lull. Maybe trade the other 2nd round pick at the end of the round to trade with another future second round pick.
by phxuk: Ap on Jun 17, 2009 4:42 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
DeJuan Blair
He’s the only played with upside left – we have to take either him or Daye. We can’t take Clark – when someone’s motor is questioned, its a bad sign, but when their upside is Lamar Odom (who doesn’t know the meaning of the term work ethic), its a horrible sign.
Everybody remember a couple years ago, when a talented, athletic forward who dominated college ball slipped to #17 because of knee problems? I think his name was Danny Granger . . .
by UASun on Jun 17, 2009 5:00 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
that kind of luck is rare
Plus like i said, he’s got bad knees, and from what i hear he’s got a weight problem. More like Glen Davis than Granger. Read the link i posted above. James Johnson’s supposed to compare to Granger
by Funky Flapsack on Jun 17, 2009 5:49 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
He doesn't have a weight problem
That was his rap in college – if you paid attention to the combine, Blair showed up in excellent shape, with great athleticism
by UASun on Jun 17, 2009 7:29 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
He lost a ton of weight
really fast which makes sense since he was motivated to do so. I have a hard time believing a guy that lost something like 40lbs will keep it off.
Between the knees and the weight he’s the highest risk/highest reward player the Suns might get a look at w/ the 14th….
I don’t know nearly enough about his knee’s / weight to say one way or another
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Seth Pollack on Jun 17, 2009 7:32 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
ESPN
has the Suns taking Austin Daye, I am not sold,this as a rail, seems like he sleep walks through periods of the game.
James Johnson or Henderson.
I want Henderson, great to the hole, good shot, and will defend.
"Have You heard of the Boom on Mizar 5?"
by Grockcubs on Jun 17, 2009 6:50 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
agreed about henderson
already has a professional attitude and demeanor about him. I like the way Blair plays but hate the whole injury prone thing with his knees. Haven’t we been through anough big men with problems to learn our lesson? I am also intrigued by Ty Lawson, but concerned about 1) his 3 point shooting ability and 2) his size.
by PHXgp on Jun 17, 2009 8:43 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I think we do have to keep in mind that we’re talking about the fourteenth pick, not the second, so it’s unlikely we’ll find a diamond in the rough or anyone that’d be considered a complete bust.
by jburning on Jun 17, 2009 10:05 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Terrence Williams
14 may be a little high for him to go but I believe he has the talent and will become a good defender in the NBA. If Henderson is still available the Suns should probably take him instead.
The most glaring need for the Suns is an athletic defender in the backcourt. With Nash, JRich, and Dragic getting minutes the Suns need someone long and athletic with an interest in playing defense. So, go for a young guy hungry for minutes who can earn them by chasing around the best guard on the other team.
by runningdonut on Jun 17, 2009 10:18 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Williams
Another vote for Williams. He plays hard, doesn’t take any games off and is a good defender.
I like the idea of Lester Hudson in the 2nd……the big knock about him and Curry is the level of competion they faced and not being a true point (their teams needed them to carry most of the offence). That was the knock against Nash when he came out and I don’t think Curry will be there at 14 so maybe it’s worht a shot.
Hudson can defend as well tho’ he may not be a lock down.
Of course this is based on the stuff one reads on the internet so who knows.
by overthere on Jun 18, 2009 3:54 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
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