Amare to Wizards rumor
by Seth Pollack on Jun 3, 2009 11:25 AM MDT
in Phoenix Suns Commentary
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I am pretty sure we are going to need a rumor index here to keep track of all the various deals being batted around. Just like it was with the trade deadline, the rumor volume only going to increase as draft day gets closer.
This one from Hoopsworld has Amare going to the Wizards for Antawn Jamison, the expiring useless contract of Mike James and the #5 pick. Frankly, this seems more like speculation and idea then actual rumor of real discussions between the two teams. But heh, it's an interesting topic so let's discuss.
Numbers
In this deal the Suns would be giving up Amare's $16.4m due this season and take on Jamison's and James' combined $18.1m plus the $2.7m for the #5 pick which means the Suns would be adding $4.4m in payroll next year at a time they are looking to cut.
Obviously, this is a much better deal financially for the Suns if Mike James is not included and some other smaller contract is instead used to make the numbers match.
For the Wizards
This is a great deal for the Wiz in that they get Amare for at least one season with the possibility of resigning him to play with Gilbert, Butler and their youngsters. Amare is a flashier player of course and younger but is still low risk because at this point he's not under contract beyond 2011. The best part though, is they clear the dead weight of James and they save some money. This why I imagine the Mike James contract will be a sticking point.
Would the Wizards be willing to make this deal if it was just Jamison, the #5 and a smaller contract like Stevenson or Songalia?
For the Suns
Jamison is a great player if a bit undersized for the PF position but that's never stopped him from rebounding well. Despite his size, he's only averaging .9 fewer rebounds then Amare on their respective careers.
In the short term, Jamison is a great fit with Nash, Hill and Shaq. The question is the next two years where his contract escalates to $15m in 2012 when he will be 35 years old. Everything I know about the guy says that he's a great teammate and has a solid work ethic. He's been durable so there's no reason to think that he can't play well until that age. At that point in his career he would probably be over paid for his relative production but $15m for a 35 y/o Jamison isn't horrible in comparison to lots of other contracts out there.
The #5 pick is the other prize. That would get the Suns another solid young player and would give them the option of trading the #14 pick for a pick next year or perhaps packaging it in some other way. It all depends on how the Suns are feeling about the guys they are seeing at that spot.
As mentioned twice now, the main problem with the deal is Mike James. While Songalia or Stevenson are signed for one additional year and each has a larger total contract, their salaries in 2010 are less of an issue since the Suns won't be saddled with Shaq's $21m.
My bottom line:
If this deal could be done without James then I am for it. If the Wizards insist on including James then I don't know if taking on the additional cost is worth it. Certainly not before I know what else is out there.
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I hate this trade
Jamison is an immediate downgrade from Amare- maybe the rebounding is the same, but Antawn can’t defend anyone either and we all know there a few players that can match Amare’s firepower, and Jamison isn’t one of them.
So we downgrade the 4 position, for what, the #5 pick? In one of the weakest drafts in years? Whoever we get for Amare HAS to be someone we can build around, and I don’t think you can do that for anyone outside of Griffin or Rubio in this draft. It won’t be enough to keep Nash around, or lure any real free agents (Can you imagine that pitch? Come to phoenix, you can play with J-Rich and Jordan Hill!!). So we’re left with Dragic, Barbosa, Richardson, Hill, Lopez? Hello 30 wins for the next 3 years.
I don't look at it that way
The question isn’t a comparison between Jamison and Amare. The question is will Amare leave after next season if he’s not given a huge extension and if you don’t want to give him the deal he wants then what’s the best value you can get in return?
So, question 1. Can you resign Amare for a deal that works for Phx? Chances are, the answer is no unless Amare realizes he’s not worth $20m/yr for 5 or 6 years.
Then given the fact that Amare can opt out at the end of next year and will put his new team in this same extension dilemma, how much would a team be willing to give up?
Jamison plus the #5? Salmons, Tim Thomas and Tyrus Thomas?
You aren’t going to get a player of equal value as Amare but as we’ve learned, a winning basketball team isn’t only about having the best players. You have to have the right mix and you can’t spend huge $ on the wrong players
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Seth Pollack on Jun 3, 2009 1:11 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
I disagree with you because of the statement “We have to get someone we can build around.”
Amare is not a player you can build around, so why should we expect that in return for him?
Take care of the little things, and the big things will take care of themselves.
Wizards fan here...
A couple of things about Jamison:
He’s extremely durable. (He’s averaged almost 79 games played for the last 8 years)
Scores inside. Scores mid-range. Scores from 3-point line.
A very good rebounder. Exceptional hands… (truly exceptional hands).
Not an athletic player, but gets his shot off anyway; which means he’ll still be productive even at 35 years old.
He’s a team leader, and a good locker room guy. (You’ll NEVER hear “trade me”, or “play me”, or “give me the ball” from Jamison)
If you ask him to rebound and score inside – he rebounds and scores inside (look at his last 2 years)..
If you ask him to score from mid-range and 3-point land – he scores from there (look at when he was playing with Arenas in 2005-06 and 2006-07).
Statistically, Amare and Antawn are very, very close. The only thing that Amare does better Offensively is dunk. Jamison rarely dunks.
Now- throw in the fact that you might just be able to package the #5 pick WITH the #14 pick and move up in the draft…. then the trade looks lopsided in the Sun’s favor.
Mike James’ contract runs out at the same time as Shaq… giving Phoenix Cap flexibility. If you move up in the Draft and score Rubio, you might not have to re-sign Nash- – - – then the Suns would be WAY under the Salary Cap to sign a 2010 Free Agent. (Wade? Bosh? Joe Johnson?, Brendan Haywood-wink)
As a Wizard’s fan – I don’t like this trade. The only thing this does is trade one high volume inside scorer that can rebound for another. Neither player can defend. Also, Amare does not have a consistent outside shot – whereas Jamison does. For the Wizards to get to the next level, they need better defensive personnel – and Amare Stoudemire is not that kind of player.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Amare's outside shot ...
is VERY consistent. It just doesn’t extend out to the three-point line. Overall, he’s got one of the best jumpers of all the bigs.
I am also a Wizards fan
And I disagree wholeheartedly with my co-blogger, particularly when he says Amare can’t shoot. Dude was one of the 10 best mid-range big man shooters in basketball this year, way ahead of Jamison.
Anyway, I’m for this trade, as explained here.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Personally, I think it’s a foregone conclusion that Amare Stoudemire will not be on the Phoenix Suns come the 2010-2011 season. Either he’ll be traded or he’ll opt out. No way the Suns reach a reasonable contract extension with him. If he’s willing to take $13m a year for a long-term contract, then MAYBE that’s worth it.
At this point, it’s about getting the best in return. I do think getting Jamison back keeps the Suns competitive, because actually, he’s about as productive as Amare. Maybe a few less points a game, but the Suns have enough scorers. I am concerned about the 4 years left on his contract, though. Not a lot of flexibility there.
I think the problem with this draft is not that it’s so weak, but that it’s so … level. Anyone from #3 to #25 COULD be a star or a solid contributor in the league, or could end up a bust. You never know. With the #5, we could pick up, possibly, someone like Jordan Hill, Brandon Jennings, or Jonny Flynn who COULD end up being great. But, never know.
I'm not sure why it's such a given Amare is leaving
Or that dumping him is the best move. I challenge anyone here to honestly say that Jonny Flynn has a better chance of turning it on than Amare does. Healthy, and motivated, Amare is a top 20 player in the league, and if you cant get youth or comparable value, it’s a bad trade. You all remember how that Barkley trade worked out in 95? That’s what you’re all gunning for. Espescially if you take an an undersized, 34 year old power forward with 4 years of a bloated contract.
We all know this trade is 75 cents on the dollar, at best. Why not at least make that 75 cents young and cheap.
Hell, I’d rather have Butler and Mike James straight up.
Why not the same exact trade (Amare and #14) for Gay and the Grizzlies pick? or Gay and Warrick? Or Josh Smith, Bayless and pick, Thompson and pick, Hawes and pick, Biedrins and Randolph? You cannot honestly tell me this is even close to the best deal out there.
Think of all the stars on the trading block too! T-Mac, Bosh, K-Mart, Butler . .
I think we’re all just a little tired of Amare, and willing to ship him off too easily. Franchises do not recover easily from losing star players. The suns have a history of shipping of stars because we’ve gotten tired of them, and I can’t think of it turning out well yet.
Jamison is only 32, not 34
He’s also just as productive as Amare he just doesnt get much recognition.
Not really
They had similar numbers last year, but Amare’s true shooting percentage is usually over 60, while Jamison’s is usually in the mid to low 50s. What Jamison does that Amare really cant, though, is hang out around the three point line while Shaq does his thing down low. Jamison’s also primarily plays around the baseline when he’s not shooting threes, which could help or hurt spacing with regards to Shaq.
Personally, I like the deal a lot for the Wizards, but I don’t think it’s a good idea for the Suns to let Amare go. As long as he’s paid decent money (which he does deserve; he can’t singlehandedly win you a championship or even a playoff series, but I’d still take him over Bosh, Joe Johnson, or any of the other big time free agents next year not named James or Wade), he’s about as good a scorer as you’ll find, and he’s still really young.
by pantslessyoda1 on Jun 3, 2009 2:09 PM MDT up reply actions
For the record
he turns 33 on June 12th…
You make the point that there might be better deals and that 3 yrs of Jamison at his age isn’t smart. Fair enough.
The other question is about Amare’s production vs his cost (in other words his value as a player) over the next 5 or 6 years. Given his history with micro-fracture at a young age, the unknown of his eye injury and most importantly his ability or lack of ability to be a franchise guy that can lead a team it is no wonder that people are ready for him to go.
and since we are “on the record” – I still contend that the best option is to wait the summer out unless a fantastic deal comes along and see how he does between October and February and then decide what you want to offer him for an extension. The risk being if you don’t come to terms then you only have that trade deadline to try and get something back in return.
It really is a tuff call
Blogging Suns Basketball
I think waiting the summer out is also a good plan
Steve Nash, the league's MVP, is a longhaired Canadian who spoke out against the war in Iraq and reads The Communist Manifesto. Quentin Richardson declared after a game-winning shot that it "was like Hamlet. It was a suspense thriller, and I killed them at the end." Amare Stoudemire, when asked to comment on a 22-point third quarter against the Kings, said, "I've got a tendency to jump over some guys' heads and throw it down."
I totally agree
with waiting the summer out as well.
by UASun on Jun 3, 2009 3:10 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Nice
post. That was far and away the best thing anyone has said yet. I am wondering why everyone thinks Amare is leaving too. Remember two years back when Kobe was saying “I gone” and even wanted to be traded to the Suns? Now look! If the Suns put together a great winning year with a playoff run Amare wont go anywhere. Whats with all this “Amare is gone next year without a doubt” stuff??
I too have been wondering about Bosh and any number of big men on the Clippers. They have 5 or six STARTER quality guys at the 4-5. They have to get rid of someone this year. We could get a two-fer. Randolph or Camby or Kamen…heck we could look at Boozer right now and Bosh is a definite must-look.
We have options but no one seems to be looking at anyone other than the stupid Wizards and Jamison! Gimme a break, we can do waaaay better than that.
Go read a book!
I think Jamison would be fantastic here
But I really don’t like the trade. Amare to Jamison is still a down-grade, and the 5th pick does absolutely nothing for us unless we can parlay number 5 and 14 into a top 2-3 pick for Rubio. If we have a deal set up where we can turn those assets into the second or third pick in the draft, then I say you do it.
Nash/Rubio/Dragic
Richardson/Barbosa
Hill/Dudley
Jamison/Amundson
Shaq/Lopez
As of now, the fifth pick is a complete crapshoot, and we can probably get some of the players we like at number 14 for less money
Steve Nash, the league's MVP, is a longhaired Canadian who spoke out against the war in Iraq and reads The Communist Manifesto. Quentin Richardson declared after a game-winning shot that it "was like Hamlet. It was a suspense thriller, and I killed them at the end." Amare Stoudemire, when asked to comment on a 22-point third quarter against the Kings, said, "I've got a tendency to jump over some guys' heads and throw it down."
Amare is worth $12-15/m a year, I think. If he’s willing to accept that, then sign him long-term to a new deal. If the Suns do keep him, I’m hoping that since Amare is driven almost solely by ego, it’ll eventually work in our favor. He’ll eventually realize, like Carmelo Anthony did this year, that everyone who’s considered “the man” is a defensive stopper, and he’ll add that to his repertoire in order to be “the man.” But then again, Stoudemire has one of the lowest basketball IQs in the NBA, so who knows.
Overall, I’d rather just move past him. I think he’s the type of guy who’d rather score 35 points a game on a 25-win team, than 15 points a game on a 66-win team.
I wouldn't go that far
But then again, Stoudemire has one of the lowest basketball IQs in the NBA
Blogging Suns Basketball
For the record
If James is the only hold-up and you’d rather have us trade Songaila or Stevenson, that’s no problem with me.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
I think this rumor is all speculation with little to no chance of reality
Because it would be a complete steal for us. We’d be robbing the Wizards like we’re Bernie Madoff and I don’t think they’d fall for it.
Take care of the little things, and the big things will take care of themselves.
I normally agree w/ you on a lot of things
but I think Phoenix is the one who needs more value in this trade. I don’t even like Amare that much anymore but I still believe that he’s worth more than Jamison and the 5th pick in a terrible draft.
Unless, as previously stated, we package the fifth and fourteenth for Rubio…
Steve Nash, the league's MVP, is a longhaired Canadian who spoke out against the war in Iraq and reads The Communist Manifesto. Quentin Richardson declared after a game-winning shot that it "was like Hamlet. It was a suspense thriller, and I killed them at the end." Amare Stoudemire, when asked to comment on a 22-point third quarter against the Kings, said, "I've got a tendency to jump over some guys' heads and throw it down."
For those of us who HAVE seen Jamison play....
We are divided as to whether this is a good deal for the Wizards or not.
Neither Amare or Antawn play any DEFENSE. Their Offensive numbers are very close – as are their rebounding numbers..
But Jamison rarely turns the ball over (6.5 Turn Over rate)… and he’s a team leader.
Oh yeah…. by the way, his last Contract extension he took a PAY CUT, to stay in Washington. I doubt Amare would ever be willing to do that.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
This is not true at all
Their Offensive numbers are very close – as are their rebounding numbers..
It’s all about efficiency. Amare’s efficiency dwarfs Jamison’s, and it’s not even close. It’s a major offensive upgrade.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Thank you
That’s why I hate this trade. I’m sure Jamison is a great guy. I am a fan. But Amare had what, the #3 PER last year?
This is all kinda skewed ...
because so much of Amare’s game is dunks and shots around the basket. Yeah, Shaq led the league in field goal percentage, but all his shots were dunks and within 5 feet of the hoop. Perimeter guys (like Jamison) are bound to have a lower efficiency rating and field goal percentage, because of what type of shots they have to take.
The interesting things about Jamison
are his pairing with Shaq next season. Does anyone think that Amare and Shaq is a better combo then Jamison and Shaq?
But that’s not enough reason to like the deal b/c Shaq is almost done anyway. The reason I like it (and I am not saying I love it) is that Jamison is a leader. He is a smarter player and so for the next two years after 2010 when Shaq, Hill and Nash might all be gone who’s left to be that guy? That’s an intriguing piece for me.
Blogging Suns Basketball
I like Jamison as a player and (from what I know) as a person. He seems to have a lot of integrity and did a great job of shouldering the Wizards the past couple seasons while Arenas was out. I think he is one of those players who can age and will still remain effective (ala Grant Hill now), and I do think he’d make a better pairing with Shaq, than Amare does. It’s just too bad Jamison’s got such a long contract.
It will be strange in 2010 to see who emerges to lead the team forward. That needs to be Kerr and Sarver’s quest in the 2010 offseason. Even if Amare’s not that piece to build around (I don’t believe he is), they need to find that person and establish that pecking order.
That doesn't mean it's skewed
It just means that effective post scorers are worth far more than jump shooters, precisely BECAUSE THEY CAN score at a much more effecient rate.
And you’re not even entirely correct originally- we all know Amare is an exceedingly good jump shooter, and even much to my dismay, seems to have fallen in love with it. Amare is more efficient, period.
It means ...
You can’t compare them side-to-side, because they have different games. Amare still makes the majority of his shots inside the paint. Yes, that percentage seems to decrease every passing season, but still.
I'm sorry, I just can't disagree more
Of course you can compare them side by side- they play the same position! The comparison is that Jamison is undersized, and has to rely on jump shots. Which is great for a 3, but we’re talking about the power-forward position, where you expect the player to be scoring inside, forcing double teams. Which is what the numbers say Amare is great at. The fact that Amare scores inside is what makes him better. Besides, PER (although I’m not the biggest Hollinger fan) is about way more than field goal percentage. Amare was actually one of the few bigs ranking high in it, proving that, if anything, it’s biased TOWARDS jump shooters like Jamison.
I think I’m just worked up about this. I really, really, really don’t want Jamison
Well yeah, they are both fours ...
Thoguh it’s by chance. Someone did mention here that Jamison plays more like a three, and Amare has way more of an inside game than most fours seem to. Not trying to start a fight or anything, just saying.
You are both right
Amare is the more efficient offensive players. In fact at the end of the 07/08 season I made the case that he was the best offensive player in the game because of that.
That doesn’t mean he’s a better basketball player then Jamison though although I think on balance that he is if you are comparing them straight up.
But, leadership does matter as does B-ball IQ. Also, we can’t ignore the fact that while Jamison is signed for 3 more years (peaking at $15m in his final year), Amare is on iffy grounds health-wise too.
Signing Amare to a 5 or 6 year deal is going to be risky given his knee and eye problems. You are trading one risk for another. Then you through in the #5 and on balance I think its a fairly even trade.
It is flawed for both sides. Any deal that is too lopsided won’t get done.
Which doesn’t take away from the obvious answer which is don’t do anything.
Blogging Suns Basketball
Amare' trade rumor
I think we could make the trade with the Wizards as it stands and then turn around and send the #14 pick and Mike James somewhere else for something better and drop some salary still.
Horrible
THIS IS CRAZY…thank god whoever writes this isnt a gm..Amare(All- Star/All NBA) for Tim Thomas(the bust who had his best yr with us to be a bum again) Jerome James(Cap Filler) and Tyrus Thomas..Who is a decent defender ok offensive player who plays a lot like Earl Clark..Why not just draft Earl Clark or try to get Tayshaun Prince who plays like an upgraded Tyrus Thomas…Amare Steve Nash still want to play in PhX they want to play on a competitive team..We can rebuild while still being competitive an the key to that is the draft Nash still a top 5 pg in this system Amare still a top 3 Power Forward..we can still play we need to buy another draft pick ks and let them develop Amare Nash Barbosa our 3 best players all drafted by suns
Amare doesnt have to be the leader
You guys think Howard is the leader of the Magic? Hell no. I would say the leader of that squad is Turkgolu or Lewis. You never see Howard getting on his teammates. Was Amare the leader back in the 2005 playoffs? Not sure, but it didnt matter, he still dominated.
Sure its a gamble to extend, but imagine if we dont, and he goes on to win a ring with another team. It would be devastating the the Phoenix psyche. Build around him i say
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