Who is going to get the eighth spot in the West?
by Hawk42 on Aug 18, 2009 10:48 AM MDT
33 comments
With all of the moaning and groaning going on, and the curious trend of fans of other teams posting here (Warrior, Blazers, Spurs, Lakers, etc.), I thought it prudent to create a reasoned discussion on our chances in the upcoming season. Specifically, the eighth spot, which I believe is ours barring injuries.
First of all, I believe six teams have a playoff spot pretty much in the bag (again, barring debilitating injuries such as Brandon Roy, Chauncy Billups, Dirk Nowitzki, Chris Paul, or Tim Duncan. I believe the Lakers are so stacked, they could even make the playoffs without Kobe)
These six teams are:
LA
San Antone
Denver
New Orleans
Dallas
Portland
One team is a little iffy, but I am going to give Utah the 7th spot assuming Boozer plays. This leaves the following as candidates for the #8 spot, in no particular order:
Phoenix
OKC
Sacramento
Minnesota
Memphis
Houston
Let's take them one by one, starting with Houston.
Rockets - Without Yao and TMac, and losing Artest, all of the sudden the fans in Houstonhave to be thinking John Wall. Does anyone in their right mind think they can win more than 40 games? All of the sudden, Trevor Ariza has to be a superstar. With a lineup of Ariza, Landry, Dorsey, Brooks, and Hayes, it is going to take some herculean performances to get the Rox on any significant winning streak. Chance at #8 - 10%
Golden State- The Ws were the worst team in the league for Stephon Curry. Even if he breaks out, he negates much of the effectiveness of Monta Ellis. Where is the guard defense? Biedrins will give a similar performance as in 2008-09 - 12-11, bad foul shooting, a lot of fouls, some blocks. Randolphwill turn into a starter, but Maggette is a cancer who never plays defense. The Dubs lost a lot of their fire when JRich, Barnes, and Baron left. Stephen Jackson is an all-star some nights, and a doofus the next. Chances at #8 - 12%
LA Clippers - Subtracting ZBo and adding Griffin was about as good as you can get. Alas, Dunleavy is wearing out his welcome in LA. If they dump some more dead weight, and add a real point guard, they could eventually get good enough to persuade Blake to sign a second contract. Gordon and Blake are a good start. If Kaman and Camby stay healthy, and Davis gets serious, they can bother a lot of teams. Not much defense outside of Camby and Griffin. Where does Thornton play? chance at #8 - 5%
Sacramento- They have some pieces in Evans, Hawes, and JT, and a consumate pro in Kevin Martin. Beyond that, what else? The key here is Evans. I do not believe he is a point guard. Is he JordanorJamal Crawford? Reading what people say, you'd think he was a cross between Vince Carter and Jason Kidd. I watched him closely last year, and Antonio Anderson was Memphis' most effective point guard. Evans looked good because he started out posessions with the ball in his hands, and more often than not, he scored because college point guards were too small or slow to stop him. But in the NBA, coaches won't put 6'2 guys on him. chance at #8 - 0%
Memphis- If they would have kept Kevin Love, they would be a stiff challenge for the #8 now. With ZBo, Gay, and Mayo, you have thrree black hole stat hounds that will rarely pass the ball. Marc Gasol is a decent center, which I would like on the Suns. His only chance to score will be on putbacks. Sorry, I don't see the Grizz doing anything. Chace at #8 - 0%
Minnesota- Kevin McHale's wizardry has left the Wolves about where they started as an expansion team. They do have Jefferson, and Love, and Jonny Fly will run by a few guys. But picking both Rubio and Flynn was a monumental blunder when Hill and DeRozan were sill there. Chance of #8 - 5%
Thunder - This is the most talented team on the non-playoff list. However, I do not see a rhyme or reason behind Sam Presti's machinations. Durant, Westbrook, and Harden are great pieces. Those three guys should be in the gym right now playing three on three against all comers. Add Green, Collison, and Thabo, and you have a great core. I don't know what it is, but I have yet to see any cohesion on defense from this group, and who is the team turning to in the fourth quarter? Chance at #8 - 25%
Suns - The Amare Stoudemire and Steve Nash pair is unmatched by any of these teams. Add a steady Grant Hill, a proven scorer in Jason Richardson, and nice bench hustle from Amundsen and Dudley, and you have a squad that can be hard to handle when focused. I haven't even mentioned Leandro Barbosa, who, along with Stoudemire and Nash, remain three players left over from 7SOL that are still uncoverable by one man. The weak point here is Lopez, who would have trouble strarting anywhere in the NBA. Lopez will allow the double team on Amare. If Earl Clark can put in the effort, he may be playing C/PF with Amare in a small, quick lineup that will give teams fits. Chance at #8 - 50%
In conclusion, I ask you. If not the Suns, who else? I think a .500 record gets the #8 spot this year. Don't misunderstand me. I am not saying the Suns are a juggernaut. But I think they approach 50 wins, and I just don't see any of these other teams doing that. So before you throw around claims like the Suns missing the playoffs, think a little.
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Yo, Hawk, I think there may have been a glitch when you put together your poll…
Great post though. I agree that it’s only a matter of time before the Thunder put it together and get scary. That’s an “when” not an “if.”
by Mike Lisboa on Aug 18, 2009 11:16 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I have a note in to PStan to fix the poll
I couldn’t see how to add multiple options, I’m missing something.
April 29, 2008 Total Eclipse of the Sun. Is the sky falling?
by Hawk42 on Aug 18, 2009 11:34 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Go into your poll
Under the first answer window there’s a link that says “Add New Option.” Click this to add a window for each additional poll answer.
by Mike Lisboa on Aug 18, 2009 11:49 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you serious
You Suns fans are bias, 50 % are you kidding if the Suns couldn’t win with Shaq what maks you think they can win with an even worse squad, I like the Suns, but that percent is so bias, 20-30 percent is way more accurate, and its gonna be between The Suns and the Wariors. I bet anything Stoudemire is gonna get injured. I don ‘t wanna sound rude or anything but thats not accurate. To get to the playoffs Nash has to be the MVP Nash(which I believe and hope he can be) and Stoudemire has to beast which I don’t know if he can without geting hurt, and J-rich has to average 20 points. I Love Nash, but I don’t know if the Suns could ever win without another force downlow. I don’t know how the Suns can win if Stoudemire was ever hurt. They would get crushed. I really wih the Suns never trade for J-rich, because they really need Boris Diaw now. Injuries are gonna ruin the uns chance of making it to they playoffs, I really have a fealing the warriors if Biedrins and Monta can play at least 60 games together we can win. Anthony Randolph is gonna beast( he’s even better and stronger than last season. He’s gained 15 lbs of muscle he will own. I like the Suns, but you guys underestimate my warriors too much
I know their will probobley be a lot of Warriors suck stuff, but in the game the warriors are a much better team.
I'm in eighth grade give me a break
by Mike Fox on Aug 18, 2009 6:29 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Okay,
Whether you’re 13 or 53, everybody likes paragraph breaks. Eighth graders can write in paragraphs. So please, if you want people to actually read comments like these, break them into paragraphs. I don’t even try to read clumps of rambling words.
Don't feel bad, Channing. We can't rebound either.
by rosewood on Aug 18, 2009 7:20 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's Mike's job
He’s the editor …
so I’m not sure whether to chastise you or him
And stop being so biased
Mmmmm ... Guinness
by JSun on Aug 19, 2009 1:35 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm adding that to the guidelines.
I actually meant to add it the first time around and it slipped my mind. The “Enter” key is your friend.
by Mike Lisboa on Aug 19, 2009 2:06 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why would I stop being biased?
People expect more from you if you’re unbiased.
Don't feel bad, Channing. We can't rebound either.
by rosewood on Aug 19, 2009 4:03 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually I think the #8 goes to
Utah
we’ll be at #7 :D
Whats up doc?
by RottPhiler on Aug 18, 2009 6:45 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
lets Compare lineups
WARRIORS SUNS
PG Monta Ellis < Steve Nash Nash is way better
Sg Stephen Jackson > Jason Richardson Jackson beats Richardson
Sf Kellena Azubukie > Grant Hill Kellenna is better he is a better scorer & rebounder
PF Anthony Randolphn > Channing Fry Randolph is so much better
C Andris Biedrins < Amare Stoudemire Stoudemir is better but Biedrins is underrated
Warriors Suns
Corey Maggette < Leandro Barbosa Its a tossup, but I’ll give it to Barbosa
Steph Curry > Earl Clark Steph= future all star
CJ Watson > Goran Dragic CJ is the better backup center
Brandon Wright > Robin Lopez Brandon is wayy better
Anthony Morrow > Alando Tucker Morrow can drop 36 any night
Ronny Turiaf = Lightnig Lou Amundson both play with so much heart
Warriors have a deeper bench than the Suns
Warriors I thik are better offensively and defensively
I'm in eighth grade give me a break
by Mike Fox on Aug 18, 2009 6:49 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
error
I meant better pg Cj
I'm in eighth grade give me a break
by Mike Fox on Aug 18, 2009 6:50 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's the thing w/ the Warriors
Some time you put a group of players together and between the coach, the system and the chemistry and are better than the sum of their parts. With the Warriors it’s the opposite.
They do have a lot of talent and they are going to be exciting but they are the only team that cares less about defense than the Suns and at least the Suns are giving lip service to getting better on D. The Warriors simply won’t try on that end of the floor.
Offensively, there is no true point guard to distribute the ball so between that and Nellies system all you get is a lot of isolation and quick shots. You get five guys on the floor playing on their own agenda. The NBA is too good to tolerate that.
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Phoenix Stan on Aug 18, 2009 7:07 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
error
grant hill is better i will not budge on this point
our starting lineup is better and thats most important
and u forgot jdud but they are still deeper
rather have a better starting 5 than a better bench
randolph isnt way better than frye
and we are better
by cap space on Aug 19, 2009 1:08 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not so sure about this
I mean, in theory your comparison is sound…but I think its pretty clear that you are a homer on this one. Lets try it again, from a different homer’s perspective.
~Nash > Ellis – You said it first.
~Richardson = Jackson – Jackson is great on a given night, but is too much a personality liability IMO. Rich may not show up, but when he does its better than when Jackson does.
~Kelenna < Hill – Cmon? Really? Kelenna is good but not that good. Super inconsistent. Grant plays well every night and on off nights still plays better defense than Kelenna. (btw Hill 15.2; 5.2; 2.2; 2.0 vs Kelenna 20.6; 4.8; 1.8; .4 in pts; rbs; asst; stl – I think Hill is better dont you?)
~Randolph > Fry – Not sure about this one because Fry hasnt played for us yet. But Randolph is slightly overrated. He played well in Summer League but that doesn’t mean anything to me yet. We will see if he is “so much better” when the season arrives.
~Amare >>>> Biedrins – I was against this trade the whole time.
~Maggette < Barbosa – You said it.
~Curry = Clark – Honestly, I dont know how you can judge these two seeing as no one has seen them play int he NBA. I think Curry is HIGHLY overrated and in Nelson’s system he will get lost. And no I dont think he is a future All-Star.
~Wright > Lopez – Probably right there…but I will reserve everlasting judgement until I see Lopez play in the fall.
~Morrow > Tucker – but I caveat this. Morrow may be able to “drop 36 any night” but his stats say he only averages 15, and he does it with an average of 22 minutes every night. Tuck, on the other hand, has half that (6.0 pts per game) but only plays a whopping 10 minutes a game. So while I would give it to Morrow, its only because so far Tucker hasn’t proved it yet.
~Turiaf > or = Lou – I love Lou but Turiaf has some good strengths. So its really a nightly thing for them.
And you have to be down right kidding me if you think the Warriors are better both offensively and defensively. Why did the Suns beat the Warriors without Amare if they weren’t better at at leat ONE of those things? Offensive effeciency stats I think reveal who the better team is offensively. Since neither play defense particularly well I will give that one to you, but come on…
Go read a book!
by N8lol on Aug 19, 2009 8:17 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
How is this Warriors squad any better than the 06-07 & 07-08 teams?
The Suns have regressed, but not as much as the Warriors.
by hcblankscreen on Aug 19, 2009 11:08 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I fully expect
the Rockets to be, at minimum, a .500 team. Ariza is a far better player than Artest at this point in Artest’s career. The loss of Yao is harsh, but the Rockets are sufficiently deep and sufficiently talented that they’d have to suffer even more injuries not to reach .500.
Luis Scola, Kyle Lowry, Shane Battier, Carl Landry, Trevor Ariza, Joey Dorsey, Brent Barry, Aaron Brooks, and T-Mac (even at 75% of what he used to be). That’s a good team, and, most importantly, one that plays defense.
Don't feel bad, Channing. We can't rebound either.
by rosewood on Aug 18, 2009 7:32 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
shhhh
we don’t use that “D” word around here…
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Phoenix Stan on Aug 18, 2009 8:28 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
However
I don’t think the Rockets will be .500 team unless T-Mac is at 75%. I don’t think he’s expected back until half way through the season and w/o him that team doesn’t have near enough offense. Funny, you’ve got the Rockets on one end and the Warriors on the other…
Forget all this seeding stuff – which of those two teams will finish with the better record? That might be interesting to watch
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Phoenix Stan on Aug 18, 2009 8:30 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
wait a minute...
Since when is New Orleans a sure shot for the playoffs? I thought we had mostly agreed that NO was a wash and might not even make it at all? (well maybe agreed is an exaggeration…but no one I know of is touting them as being great next year [except ESPN…])
And why on earth are we giving Utah the 7th spot? Even if Boozer returns he does so to a team is doesn’t want to play for. Not a good combination for success.
When I put up a pole about this 2 months ago most people were saying we would end up 5 or 6. What has changed? Not dogging anything, just wondering why we are assuming anything outside of LA, SA (but even then…) and maybe (MAYBE) Denver being sure playoffs picks?
Go read a book!
by N8lol on Aug 18, 2009 9:10 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
NO is better than last year
Emeka is better than Chandler – more mobile, Paul will find him for more than alley oops. Darren Collison was a good pick up that will allow Paul some rest.
Let me put it this way. I think the 7 I mentioned and the Suns are the eight teams. Where they end up is really not my point. My point is the Suns are among the eight, and I son’t think any other team gets in. Whoever said Ariza was better than Artest is fooling themself. Artest can guard everyone except centers and little point guards. Ariza gambles all the time on defense, and hasn’t developed any consistency on offense. I don’t think TMac is a factor this year, but even if he is, he never led a team to anything. The Rox are a team of hardworking overachievers who have run out of bullets.
April 29, 2008 Total Eclipse of the Sun. Is the sky falling?
by Hawk42 on Aug 18, 2009 9:54 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm
I will have to disagree with you on NO. I do think you are right about Houston though. They will clearly take a step back this year. I think, however, that NO will have trouble this year becasue they have lost several key players that provided consistency when Paul was off the court.
~Jannero Pargo was a huge asset to them when Paul sat and will be missed.
~Despite what you say about Chanlder being immobile (which I think is false) there wasa chemistry between him and Paul that is not easily reproduced with anyone. Same goes for Nash and Amare. To say that they will be better at the center position simply becasue they traded out Chandler for Okafor seems to be pushing it.
~Collison: untested rookie + bad support system = little or no impact on the system.
~Im telling you, these guys are going down.
Despite this. I will go with your original comment. I think the Suns make it in. The question for me, and perhaps for you too, is who will be fighting with them for a spot? I think the Clips might be on the way but I am not sure entirely. Utah is definitely fighting for a spot in the bottom 4. The Warriors? Nah…maybe? but probably not. I guess we’ll see.
Go read a book!
by N8lol on Aug 19, 2009 7:55 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seeds
I agree with most of the above, but its a bit too hard to seed down that far. Here is my opinion on seeding.
1) Lakers
2) Spurs
3) Nuggs or Portland
4) Nuggs or Portland
5) Dallas
Now up to there thats pretty strong for seeding. Expect those teams in the top 5 depending on injuries. After that, it is very hard to say based on player performances and team chemistry, etc.
So with 6, 7, & 8th there will be essentially six teams that will be fighting for those spots in no specific order:
Utah, Suns, New Orleans, Houston, Clips, & Warriors…
Suns will have a very tough time without a “good” center. So expect them to have to outscore everyone. (6,7, or 8th)
Utah has a lot of mixed emotions and I am sure chemistry will be a factor with them; I think injuries will get Utah again and I would say there chances are pretty slim. (8th)
New Orleans will have to rely on Chris Paul…So I think he may possibly get injured and they will be aiming for 8th seed or out.
Warriors may look good on paper, but its on the court where it matters. So expect them to suck it up and make either 6, 7, or 8. They should make it if the chemistry is there.
Rockets will depend on the performance of T-Mac; but there hearts are big expect them to make it 7th or 8th.
Clips will have players show up and hopefully injury free and should make it with their roster. However, they should be fighting for 7th or 8th.
So with all that said…Really? Suns for 8th seed? If no injuries; expect them to fight the Warriors for 6th or 7th. Maybe Utah may be in that mix; its just too hard to determine. So…
Utah, Rockets, Clips will battle for 8th in my opinion. New Orleans hopefully will be out of the mix unless Chris Paul goes beast mode.
by Crazy Rob on Aug 19, 2009 9:56 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Who is going to get the eighth spot in the West
Hawk, you are good. Are you actually “The Hawk”?
What I don’t get is what makes all of you so sure the Suns won’t finish in the top 4?
Lots of teams will be shooting 4 the top 4. Will mean beginning the playoffs at home.
Odom coming back will assure the Fakers a top 4 spot. Artest will need to hold the ball too much. This could cost the team a shot to repeat. Pop had better watch his team! Jefferson will undermine the team’s chemistry and, despite positive contributions from newcomers Ratliff and McD and improvement by George Hill, Jeff will be taking many shot opportunities away from Tony and Tim (who shoot a much better percentage and Manu (who can draw the foul and kill you from the line.) Kurt Thomas will be missed. Will stick my neck out here and pick the Spurs 4 the lower 4. Pop claims to be more interested in a healthy team than playoof seed and will give his main guys lots of rest which will cost them in their seed. Karl was lucky last year. Without as much to prove this year and with his the liklihood of missing some time, Billups may not be enough to keep the Nugs in the top 4. Rockets have consistently proven that they are a MUCH better team without that cry baby Yao Ming. They will surprise all of you by finishing in the top 4. Remember that, without Ming, they gave the Fakers the hardest time along their championship path. Mutombo, not Artest, McGrady, or Ming will be their most costly loss. They have a developing beast in Luis. SUNS? Only if the Suns go to a proven formula 4 success and start LB at the 2, along side Nash, will they contend 4 (and I believe have a good shot to make) the top 4. Suns fans, we need you to appeal to “Thunder Dan” to join the “start LB” band wagon, so we can make this dream come true. This plan needs only Dan’s approval, as it has already been approved by Gentry and Kerr. In all the games LB has started beside Nash, we have ONLY LOST ONCE. With Amare at the 5, Hill at the 4, JR at the 3, and the best starting and scoring backcourt in the league, we will blow teams away. When we build HUGE early leads, we will be able to rest our starters late. Keep our starting 5 fresh 4 the next game this way. Portland is a huge question mark. They may not even make the playoffs, as they certainly looked to be out of their league in last year’s first round loss. On the other hand, the addition of Andre Miller will help and possibly land them in the top 4. Mavs, with the addition of "Trix, are a more solid bet 4 the top 4: Mavs, Fakers, Rox and Suns. The bottom 4? Spurs, Nugs, and Hornets (unless Paul gets hurt) are all good candidates 4 the bottom 4. That is only 3 of 4. Last slot may be between Portland, OKC and the Jazz. Lots of good teams in the West. This year, like last, it may be neck-and-neck right dpwn to the wire.
by BCrayZ on Aug 19, 2009 3:10 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
hill at the four?
hahaha. did you see what it did to matt barnes? barnes is considerably younger/less injury prone, and he still complained that it was rough getting banged around by the 6’11" or 7’ power forwards.
i think hill needs to stay starting at the SF spot, as he has shown time and time again that he’s just better starting as opposed to coming off the bench. i think it’s a wash between richardson and barbosa for who should start, as i think richardson could provide the scoring off the bench, which is (basically) the only reason why barbosa is still there. i think having barbosa (who is progressing with his PG skills) off the bench could help, as dragic will likely have some struggles this year. frye should start at PF, and amar’e at C. and, of course, we have nash as the starting PG. so, the lineup should look something like this…
PG: nash, dragic
SG: richardson, barbosa, tucker
SF: hill, dudley, clark, griffin (if he’s not in the d-league)
PF: frye, amundson
C: amar’e, lopez
by iamtrevorpaxton on Aug 19, 2009 4:03 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hill at the 4?
Then let JR be our 6th man.
LB has given a lot to this team and has a new mouth 2 feed back home.
DumbAntoni broke his promise to LB about starting but Gentry/ Thunder Dan can make it happen and return the glory days to our team.
We MUST give this starting backcourt a shot. I agree that we have an iffy situation in Tragic and need a back-up plan. Zabian Dowdell looks good and probably fits our budget. Same could be said 4 getting Sean Singletary back. Starter 4 the 4? What about giving Lou a shot? Even J-Dud? They have a nose 4 the ball and they have energy that is contagious and that fits well with the energy of LB and Nash.
by BCrayZ on Aug 19, 2009 4:24 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
keep in mind...
that “dumbtoni” led us to four straight years of competing at the highest level. we were the team to beat. a lot of that had to deal with the players we had, but d’antoni had the system to make it all work. so, i wouldn’t say he was that dumb.
as far as singletary goes, i say no. he was largely ineffective last season, and he was only a slight upgrade from the underachieving dragic. also, need i remind you that in the last month of last season, dragic was a top ten ranked point guard? kid’s got skills. also, whether you (or any other john q. suns fan) like it or not, griffin has the 13th roster spot, eliminating the chances for someone like dowdell.
i wouldn’t have a problem sliding lou into the starting five at PF. we could use frye as a backup and have him come off the bench and give us scoring. he can spread the offense too, since we all know that lopez is more effective the closer he gets to the basket. i’d rather have dudley coming off the bench. if we were to move amundson and LB into the starting lineup, here’s what we’d have:
PG: nash, dragic.
SG: barbosa, richardson, tucker.
SF: hill, dudley, clark, griffin (once again, if he’s not in the d-league).
PF: amundson, frye.
C: amar’e, lopez.
by iamtrevorpaxton on Aug 19, 2009 4:34 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
SUNS FANS:
We all want our team to play its best.
Let’s get vocal and full-court press the issue of starting LB in the best interest of our teamour team.
Your support may go a long way. Only way to find out is to give our best effort to this important idea.
by BCrayZ on Aug 19, 2009 4:37 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Keep in mind that the ONLY reason DumbAntoni was able to win those 4 years was not due 2 his leadership but that of Nash.
Are you aware that this coach of yours lost most every game with the Suns the year before Nash?
Are you aware that he lost most every game that Nash was too hurt to play?
Are you aware that Alvin Gentry did immediately what DumbAntoni was unable to do 4 those entire 4 years in winning a game without STAT and Nash? Without STAT and Nash in the lineup, DumbAntoni lost every single game. While he could not even beat the Clippers without their help, Mr. Gentry beat the champs (Fakers) WITHOUT STAT AND NASH. Now which coach is smart and which coach is dumb? Just because he road the coattails of Nash and wrote a book does not make him any good. Just ask the Knick players or better yet the players on our own team. How do you think they felt after playing their hearts out in San Antone in their last opening playoff game? Only to get beat because they gave an easy trey to Timmy at the buzzer so to keep the game alive and have to walk away with a demoralizing loss?
by BCrayZ on Aug 19, 2009 11:31 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
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