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Offseason Boredom: Top 20 edition



So being that it's the OFFseason, I've been doing some idle basketball speculation.  Most recently, I've been trying to come up with a list of the Top 20 most valuable players (as in current + potential future value) in the NBA.  I've found that it's pretty much ridiculously difficult.  I mean, to me, it seems that there are 11 players that would be on almost everyone's list even if they're not necessarily the top 11.  They are (in no particular order):

  1. Kobe
  2. Lebron
  3. Chris Paul
  4. Dwight Howard
  5. Kevin Garnett
  6. Tim Duncan
  7. Kevin Durant
  8. Brandon Roy
  9. Chris Bosh
  10. Dwyane Wade
  11. Derrick Rose

After these eleven though, I get pretty lost.  I mean, there's a number of candidates but that's why it's so hard to choose. They're not really that distinct. So I guess my question is if you had to choose the 10 most valuable players excluding the above eleven players, which players would you pick? Warning: it's much harder than picking the top 11.

My list looks like (once again in no particular order):

  1. Danny Granger
  2. Tony Parker
  3. Blake Griffin
  4. Manu Ginobili
  5. Amare
  6. Pau Gasol
  7. Andre Iguodala
  8. Rajon Rondo
  9. Al Horford
  10. Gerald Wallace

I know you can certainly disagree with some of those picks or the exclusion of others, and I'm not even sure that I agree with myself.  But it's hard, you know?

Anyone else want to try? It's a great way to kill time and make you look up stats for no reason.

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It may be to early to put Griffin there

Maybe Al Jefferson, or Brook Lopez, Ellis, B. Gordon and Maybe Redd. But not a bad list.

Rookie: "Why did you bench me?"
Nellie: "Your a rookie"

by dubzfan on Aug 6, 2009 3:17 PM MDT reply actions  

I’d go (no order):
Amar’e
Joe Johnson
Danny Granger
Tony Parker
Pau Gasol
Al Jefferson
Deron Williams*
Chauncey Billups
Dirk Nowitzki*
STEVE NASH (this’ll be become obvious once the sun WIN THE CHAMPIONSHIP this season) :P

The guys with * are the ones I think were key misses on your list, and could be top 11.

"If you're a Yankee fan, or if you're not a Yankee fan - you have to admit, we're winners." - #21

"Once the Hack-a-Shaq works once, you know I’m going to see it again. The only thing worse for basketball than that defense is the Lack-a-Shaq offense, where I have to go to the bench because of foul trouble. There is no fun in that." - The Big Aristotle

"Pressure is something you feel when you don't know what the hell you're doing." - Peyton

by J-Gao on Aug 6, 2009 3:48 PM MDT reply actions  

Oh, damn

Deron was just an oversight. I think I just forgot about the Jazz generally. So yeah, certainly he would be on my second ten.

And as far as the first 11 goes, I’m not sure they’re the top 11 players necessarily, I just thought they were the 11 players no one would leave out of the Top 20 (or I guess 21 here).

But yeah, Deron should be up there. No doubt.

Don't feel bad, Channing. We can't rebound either.

by rosewood on Aug 6, 2009 4:04 PM MDT up reply actions  

my top twenty.

would look something like this.

first tier
1. lebron james.
2. kobe bryant.
3. dwayne wade.
4. dwight howard.
5. tim duncan.
6. kevin garnett.
7. chris paul.
8. carmelo anthony.
9. deron williams.
10. dirk nowitzki.

second tier (which includes a few more “potential” guys, but still…not a bad list.)
11. amaré stoudemire.
12. kevin durant.
13. brandon roy.
14. tony parker.
15. derrick rose.
16. chris bosh.
17. danny granger.
18. al jefferson.
19. steve nash.
20. andre iguodala.

honorable mention
1. rajon rondo.
2. pau gasol.
3. brook lopez.
4. paul pierce.
5. manu ginobili.
6. joe johnson.

by Trevor Paxton on Aug 6, 2009 7:31 PM MDT reply actions  

I apparently

have a lot less love for Dirk and Carmelo than other folks around here.

Don't feel bad, Channing. We can't rebound either.

by rosewood on Aug 6, 2009 8:09 PM MDT up reply actions  

Sabonis???

April 29, 2008 Total Eclipse of the Sun. Is the sky falling?

by Hawk42 on Aug 12, 2009 4:54 PM MDT up reply actions  

say what you will about melo.

but, in my eyes, i have him above roy…for now.

remember, this isn’t only a potential thing. it’s also taking into account their current impact on the team, their status as an NBA player right now, and, combined with those things, potential.

at least that’s how i did my list.

by Trevor Paxton on Aug 13, 2009 5:40 PM MDT up reply actions  

I am reading you right..

In that you said current plus POTENTIAL value? In that case a lot of mistakes are made in most of the replies to this post. That said, here is my list (in no particular order)
1. Amare
2. Durant
3. Rose
4. Brook Lopez
5. D. Howard
6. Al Jefferson
7. Granger
8. Roy
9. Iguogala
10. and (im going out on a limb here) Dragic!!
Yeah I know that last one should get some responses and I want to hear them. I think the guy has some serious potential if he can get some court time and a great personal coach. Imagine Parker+Rondo…whistle

Im with you rosewood about Dirk and Carmelo. They are good but aren’t going to get much better. That said, I dont think Gasol, Ginobili, Pierce, Parker deserve to be on the list. They are good, but their potential for getting better is really small.

Go read a book!

by N8lol on Aug 6, 2009 9:01 PM MDT reply actions  

I think

Ginobili is certainly questionable because of his injury history, but I think I just have too much respect for his game not to include him.

As far as potential value goes, I definitely was supposed to be part of the equation but I would assign less value to it than to current, because, well, it’s speculative.

For instance, regarding Gasol and Lopez, I’d take Gasol over Lopez just because Lopez may top out at his current level or decline while Gasol is already an All-star and only 28.

I guess the idea is I consider potential to be ~ 50% as valuable as current production.

All that said, Lopez definitely has to be in the conversation. True centers with his skill level are a rare commodity these days.

Don't feel bad, Channing. We can't rebound either.

by rosewood on Aug 6, 2009 9:16 PM MDT up reply actions  

True story

I am interested to see how much of what he did last year carries into this year. Man is Robin could develop into only part of the player Brook is now then we would be set.sigh

Go read a book!

by N8lol on Aug 7, 2009 7:57 AM MDT up reply actions  

we didn't really get a good gauge last season.

after all, brook was essentially their starting center for the whole season. he got the minutes (as well as he should’ve, he deserved them). i just think robin didn’t really get a chance to do much (or develop much on court) with shaq logging most of the minutes.

by Trevor Paxton on Aug 7, 2009 4:32 PM MDT up reply actions  

Pierce and Parker are finals MVPs

They might not come up in our top however-many players list, but those are two guys that are truly scary in the clutch. Durant, Rose, Lopez, Iggy, they all have a ton of talent and potential, but guys like Pierce, Parker, and Ginobli are proven killers on the biggest stage.

by hcblankscreen on Aug 7, 2009 12:47 AM MDT up reply actions  

it's not solely their potential.

but their value to the team. potential plays a factor, but if you’ve got a player like kobe, there’s no doubt that he’s one of the most valuable players of the past twenty years. he might not have much more potential that’s untapped, but his significance to his team, the NBA, and the world of basketball can’t be overlooked.

by Trevor Paxton on Aug 7, 2009 12:47 AM MDT up reply actions  

I think you just gave watdogg an aneurysm.

by Azreous on Aug 7, 2009 10:12 AM MDT up reply actions  

Interesting...

Nothing is more than stacking up names to form a list. And since I’m such an anal person, I’m going to arbitrarily assume that current + potential = “which 20 guys you’d have for the next FIVE years, regardless of salary.”

But then even easy things get really hard. Would you rather have the next 5 years of Duncan or Al Jefferson? The answer probably depends on what kind of team you have. The Spurs who are contending would rather have Duncan, while the T’Wolves would prefer Al Jeff ‘cause they’re rebuilding.

So yeah, either I have to make 5 additional assumptions (like, “assuming it’s the Suns team and we can make any non-Suns player play for us for free for the next 5 years. Who’d you go with?”), or I can’t do it. I’m so anal, I know.

by gadogry on Aug 7, 2009 5:00 AM MDT reply actions  

BTW

Even I’m from near Toronto, I don’t like Chris Bosh on the 1st tier. He might not even be in my top 20. I’d take Pau Gasol before him. I’d also take Amar’e and Al Jeff before him if they weren’t so injury prone.

by gadogry on Aug 7, 2009 5:06 AM MDT up reply actions  

Just a note

The first tier isn’t meant to say that those guys are the Top 11. It’s just meant to say that those 11 guys are the 11 guys I didn’t think anyone would actually leave out of the Top 20. For me, Bosh would probably be closer to the 15-18 range.

Don't feel bad, Channing. We can't rebound either.

by rosewood on Aug 7, 2009 11:09 AM MDT up reply actions  

Damn good thread..I was with you almost until you threw Gerald Wallace up there..and why doesnt anybody hve any love for LaMarcus Aldridge or Josh Smith..

by Lebrontophx2010 on Aug 7, 2009 9:06 AM MDT reply actions  

LMA is great...

and so is josh smith, but only when they want to be. LMA has potential to be another chris bosh/amaré type player, but i just don’t know if he’s all there. i don’t know if he wants it bad enough. it seems like he’s a bit too sensitive at times, being frustrated by all the attention being given to brandon roy.

and as far as josh smith is concerned, the guy is an absolute stud on defense. he’s athletic as all get out, but there are too many deficiencies in his game to call him a top 20 player. he’s not a great 3 point shooter, a terrible free throw shooter, and in general, just isn’t very consistent on the offensive end.

by Trevor Paxton on Aug 7, 2009 4:45 PM MDT up reply actions  

and I see Amare didnt get much love but I still think and im going out on a limb here that if Amare ever played defense every night he could be the Lebron James of Bigs..there is no other big in the league with his skill set he can do everything offensively but he defense is whats holding him back..hopefully he plays on the next olympic team all those guys played good this yr

by Lebrontophx2010 on Aug 7, 2009 9:08 AM MDT reply actions  

To rephrase

I think most people agree that Amar’e on his best day is better than most people’s best days. But most people also agree that he is seldom on his best day.

by gadogry on Aug 7, 2009 11:05 AM MDT up reply actions  

he was on his best day against the pacers last season.

i haven’t seen a domination like that from a big man in a very, very long time.

by Trevor Paxton on Aug 7, 2009 4:45 PM MDT up reply actions  

For me

Amar’e’s injury history is what makes him less of a sure thing.

Don't feel bad, Channing. We can't rebound either.

by rosewood on Aug 7, 2009 11:11 AM MDT up reply actions  

Here's mine (in no particular order)

1.Kobe
2.Lebron
3.Chris Paul
4. Deron Williams
5. Steve Nash
6. Amar’e
7.Paul Pierce
8. Kevin Garnett
9. Dwight Howard
10. Tony Parker
11. Tim Duncan
12. Wade
13. Barbosa
14. Manu
15. Roy
16. Gasol
17. Al Jefferson
18. Joe Johnson
19. Rondo
20. DJ MBENGA (I kid I kid!!)
20. Yao

"Basketball doesn't build character. It reveals it"

by PanamaSun on Aug 7, 2009 11:57 AM MDT reply actions  

Barbosa?

Damn.

Don't feel bad, Channing. We can't rebound either.

by rosewood on Aug 7, 2009 12:03 PM MDT up reply actions  

Love that kid, man!

"Basketball doesn't build character. It reveals it"

by PanamaSun on Aug 7, 2009 1:24 PM MDT up reply actions  

No kidding.

and I can say he would make my Top 20 list of favorite players.

Don't feel bad, Channing. We can't rebound either.

by rosewood on Aug 7, 2009 1:28 PM MDT up reply actions  

Also

I’m glad to see another list though. I kind of posted this thread with an idea for another future post, but it won’t really work unless a couple more folks post some more lists.

Don't feel bad, Channing. We can't rebound either.

by rosewood on Aug 7, 2009 12:08 PM MDT up reply actions  

haha fair enough

1. Lebron James
2. Kobe Bryant
3. Dwight Howard
4. Dwayne Wade
5. Chris Paul
6. Kevin Garnett
7. Tim Duncan
8. Brandon Roy
9. Steve Nash
10. Deron WIlliams
11. Kevin Durant

And just a side note, I don’t think Amare’s injury history hurts his value. Sure he’s had two major injuries. But he’s recovered from microfracture without a hitch and the other was just a freak accident no one could have predicted and had nothing to do with some weakness in his physique. In fact I’d consider it a plus, we know that Amare can recover from even the most serious injuries and continue to destroy in the paint.

"Check out progressive stats and the latest Suns news at ifiredterryporter.com

by ifiredterryporter.com on Aug 7, 2009 12:22 PM MDT reply actions  

Great post!

Haven’t had time to work up a list though.

by Mike Lisboa on Aug 7, 2009 1:36 PM MDT reply actions  

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