Suns 2009-2010: Who Has the Shortest Leash?
by Wil Cantrell on Sep 17, 2009 11:19 AM MDT
in Commentary
51 comments
I think most of us here at Bright Side of the Sun agree that this upcoming season could go one of two ways:
1. As Good as to be Expected: Fairly entertaining: 2nd place Pacific, perhaps a 4-8 playoff seed.
Or, we could be in for:
2. The Epic Fail: a disaster complete with injuries and ineffective play contributing to a second straight year missing the playoffs and a thorough house cleaning in order. I would submit that even if we make the playoffs there is probably a thorough housecleaning ahead of us. But let's not get ahead of ourselves.
I believe the Suns intended to blow up the squad this off season, most notably as evidenced by the draft night deal with the Warriors that evidently was never really serious (yeah, right). But after the dramatic did not occur, the Suns, hamstrung by payroll and other constraints extended Nash, dumped Shaquille O'Neal, signed Grant Hill, then Channing Frye, thereby cementing a fairly meh off-season.
We face the 2009-10 season on a precarious precipice. The core players are old or recovering from injuries, we do not necessarily trust or like ownership and management. Our coach seems like a decent fit, but he is not a proven winner, and as of now, the team has no first round draft pick in 2010. I submit that if the team is tanking by the All-Star break, we could see major changes. So, I want to know who we all think has the shortest leash this season; or, who will not finish the season as a Sun?
Below is a profile of the possibilities along with some fairly obvious reasons why each will not remain a Sun:
Steve Kerr-I wonder sometimes if Steve is still here only because he was a Wildcat, like Sarver. He had no GM experience and he lucked into a few championships as a complimentary bench player. Does that make a GM? He may be a smart guy, but when do the mulligans end? Personally I think he could be one bad move away from returning to his TNT and Yahoo gigs.
Evidence that the leash is short:
- Kurt Thomas and draft picks for, um well, pretty much nothing
- Marion and Co. for Shaq
- Hiring Terry Porter
- "Letting or Encouraging" D'Antoni to leave
- Drafting Lopez
- Drafting Dragic
- Dealing Rudy Fernandez to Portland for cash
Jason Richardson-Everyone's favorite player to get rid of. J-Rich has immense talent and ability, he just hasn't shown it consistently in a Suns uniform. His effort and dedication have been questioned continuously by most Suns fans. It would seem to me that the league knows him well as a player and a person which would no doubt adversely affect his trade value.
Evidence that the leash is short:
- A big contract/not a great trade market for this guy (this could actually keep him a Sun)
- Not a complete player on both sides of the ball
- DUI's and other off-the-court tomfoolery
- Hasn't played to potential consistently
Alvin Gentry-He's generally a nice guy which makes him both a player and fan favorite. No one really liked Terry Porter, the players complained and the fans never really got to know much about the guy. Bottom line, the team didn't perform. Generally, that is enough for a coach to lose his job. Gentry on the other hand was at the right place at the right time. He has plenty of experience to lead a veteran team like the Suns to a winning season, however the jury is out as to whether he can consistently win. Like many other questions with this franchise, it is unknown whether he is the right fit for the future.
Evidence that the leash is short:
- 195-239 career coaching record (.449)
- Only two full coaching seasons (Clippers-5th and 6th in Pacific)
- Only one playoff appearance (lost in first round with Detroit, 1999)
- A very good Western Conference (both coaches and players) to compete with
Amare Stoudemire-The trade Stoudemire scenarios have been murdered this offseasons. Let's just say if he's healthy and dominant and the team is floundering, he could be the first to go based on his contractual status. There are many reasons to keep him and many reasons to trade him.
Evidence that the leash is short:
- Contractual status
- History of injuries
- Defense?
- Ego (a lot of talk, too many nicknames and tweets)
Steve Nash-Nash signed an extension this Summer and said all the right things. Still, if the team struggles it's not so crazy to think Nash could be traded to a contender in one of those "classy" moves by a franchise.
Evidence that the leash is short:
- Age/Injury risk
- Defensive liability
- Could help a contender in the stretch
Grant Hill-Hill is in a similar situation as Nash. He's aging, or just straight up old, but he can still be productive (and tradeable) if healthy.
Evidence that the leash is short:
- Age/Injury risk
- Could help a contender in the stretch
The Rest-Lopez, Tucker, Barbosa, Amundson, Dudley, Dragic:
- Barbosa-I don't think Barbosa is most effective as a starter in this league (sorry all, crucify me if you will), but as a 6th man, he's capable of quick offense and shifting the momentum of a game.
- Lopez- is big, active, and aggressive, two attributes that will give you a prolonged tryout in the NBA, even if you aren't very effective.
- Clark- is the future and most likely wouldn't be traded unless some incredible offer is made for him.
- Frye-just signed, and has too many ties to Arizona. I don't see him going anywhere as long as Kerr is around.
- Tucker-hasn't been healthy enough to establish much trade value. But he is young and athletic. He could be a throw-in as part of a larger deal
- Dudley-young enough with intriguing potential and good disposition. I don't see him going anywhere.
- Amundson-not many reasons to dislike pony boy. He's a great role player, but there are probably many of them rolling around the D-League. He's an addition to complete a larger deal.
- Dragic-sigh. If he's healthy and shows signs he is turning the corner this year, he could be valuable to the Suns. I don't see Kerr trading him if he shows any sign that he is the Nash apparant. If not, let's hope he enjoys the weather in Slovenia, because that's where he'll be if he doesn't pull it together.
- Griffin-could be worth some practice balls or maybe a massage table.
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Gentry
I can’t imagine any possible scenario (barring something totally ridiculous in his personal life) that would get Gentry fired. Remember that the Suns are still paying Porter for the next two years…
Blogging Suns Basketball . twitter: @phoenixstan
by Phoenix Stan on Sep 17, 2009 11:08 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
nope
Blogging Suns Basketball . twitter: @phoenixstan
by Phoenix Stan on Sep 17, 2009 11:18 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess my point is that Terry Porter had clearly lost the team and the fans were very restless. He had to go.
Most of us on BSOTS understand the condition of the team, our expectations are based in reality. But the average Sun fan doesn’t necessarily get it. To an extent the masses dictate certain moves of a franchise, and the coach is usually the first on the firing line. It may make no financial or practical sense to can Gentry next year, but I think it is a possibility.
The other side of the coin is that Gentry, unlike Porter, is a known commodity to the FO. He’s been involved in some bad situations in his coaching career. I don’t think he has ever quit a job or quit on a team. He’s a good soldier, a company man.
by Wil Cantrell on Sep 17, 2009 11:32 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
anything is possible
but I think it is highly unlikely that Gentry takes the fall if the team does poorly
Blogging Suns Basketball . twitter: @phoenixstan
by Phoenix Stan on Sep 17, 2009 11:49 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
What if...
Players contracts were based on how they perform? I mean, they kind of ar now, but what if they started putting clauses in that if they do not average a certain points or rebounds or assists, etc. that they are elligible to be cut from the team without paying out the rest of their contract, or in another word, fired. do you think that would change the whole premise of the coach being first on the firing squad?
by SunsFTW on Sep 17, 2009 2:51 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nope, two words
Player’s Association
April 29, 2008 Total Eclipse of the Sun. Is the sky falling?
by Hawk42 on Sep 17, 2009 10:09 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thay would be an incentive laden contract. They do it in MLB but I don’t think it’ll fly in the NBA
Thank God for making us Yankees.
by noonoo on Sep 18, 2009 12:31 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
**that would be
Thank God for making us Yankees.
by noonoo on Sep 18, 2009 12:31 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Or not… I totally misread that.. A reverse incentive contract? LOL
Thank God for making us Yankees.
by noonoo on Sep 18, 2009 12:33 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
they can get some incentives
they can be in the contract, they’re just no “incentive-laden”
Mmmmm ... Guinness
by JSun on Sep 18, 2009 9:44 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
MOST of us Suns fans not only understand the condition of the team MUCH better than Will, but we ALSO understand that Will obviously does not like the Suns.
BEST candidate for not finishing the season was not even mentioned. That candidate is Will. Does seem to me that Will may be much better suited to cover a team he understands. Will probably likes some other team and should look for a job writiing for them. Suns fans do not need his poison pen around here.
Nash isn’t leaving; fact is he is helping Gentry to lead this team to much better chemistry and performance than most are expecting from the Suns. Hill is doing likewise. STAT is looking forward to playing the game. I am looking forward to solid leadership from both Gentry and the veteran players and to starting the Brazilian Blur.
MUST start LB. Let’s go SUNS!!!!
MUST start LB. Let’s go SUNS!!!!
by BCrayZ on Sep 17, 2009 4:48 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
BCRAYZ
Sorry, but unless I am dead or PHX Stan bans me, I will be here.
by Wil Cantrell on Sep 18, 2009 10:10 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Come on now, BCrayZ
this post wasn’t about predicting that this stuff would happen. It was a “what if” scenario designed to get at the legitimate question about who’s on the shortest leash…
Don’t conflate discussion with hate. And btw – this site has ALWAYS been about all kinds of fan support.
You don’t have to be rah rah my team can do no wrong to be a supporter. Being critical of your team is a healthy and normal part of sports. This site has always understood that…even though this post by Wil doesn’t even go in that direction.
Blogging Suns Basketball . twitter: @phoenixstan
by Phoenix Stan on Sep 18, 2009 10:36 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hear, hear
All basketball opinions should be tolerated, aired, cussed, discussed, and open to abuse. Heck, I willl even listen to a Wildcat. Did I say that?
As my mother always told me, everone has a right to be wrong, as 54% of American voters are discovering.
April 29, 2008 Total Eclipse of the Sun. Is the sky falling?
by Hawk42 on Sep 20, 2009 8:48 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nash and HIll
Things have to go REALLY REALLY BAD to get any of these two guys traded. Grant Hill didn’t sign here for the $. It’s a combination of comfort level/loyalty/Aaron Nelson. I can’t see him wanting to leave during the season, and I don’t see us trading him. If a contender gives us a nice young big for him (e.g. Ryan Anderson? Maybe JJ Hickson?), maybe. But I doubt it.
And… I thought selling Fermandez happened before Kerr’s tenure? Either way it looks more like a Sarver move to me than a GM move.
by gadogry on Sep 17, 2009 11:50 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
This could have been in the works before Kerr was officially named GM, but the timeline is as follows:
-June 2, 2007 Kerr announced as Gm of Suns, replacing D’Antoni
-June 28, 2007 Fernandez drafted by Suns and traded with James Jones to Portland for cash
So, as I see it, Fernandez was on t Kerr’s watch.
by Wil Cantrell on Sep 17, 2009 1:49 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
Now that you’ve reminded me… we used Fermendez to “dump” James Jones’ “contract.” He was actually a great 7th man for us…
I’ve always thought about this: could we have persuaded Kurt Thomas to not pick up his $8M option by promising him a $15M/5yr contract? $15M would be more than Kurt would have made with that $8M year + 4 yrs of playing at his age (if he could last that long). Wouldn’t that have helped our cap situation? Is that even legal under the CBA?
And I loved having Kurt on our team too.
by gadogry on Sep 17, 2009 5:20 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anything that is money related
is a Sarver move. If it has to do with saving money, you can bet on Sarver having a word in on it.
by SunsFTW on Sep 17, 2009 2:53 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the Suns owner was Mark Cuban, would Steve Kerr still be a terrible GM?
by SunsFTW on Sep 17, 2009 2:54 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Cuban was the owner, Steve Kerr would have been non-existent
Cuban once said that the Mavs does not have an actual GM in their organization.
by gadogry on Sep 17, 2009 5:21 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
He subscribes to
the Jerry Jones ownership model
April 29, 2008 Total Eclipse of the Sun. Is the sky falling?
by Hawk42 on Sep 17, 2009 10:11 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who goes?
I think they will all be here, but the most likely to leave is Richardson. Ironically, if he steps it up, it will make it easier to trade him. But if he steps it up, we might want to keep him.
I think in the second half of the season, we will be playing this lineup in the fourth quarter of games:
C Amare
PF Clark
SF Hill
SG Leandro
PG Nash
IF Clark develops, this lineup would be a matchup nightmare, since you have five players that need to be double teamed. I also think if Frye surprises, you may see Frye take Hill’s place and Clark could switch to SF.
I really, REALLY like BCrayZ’s idea of starting LB. That would let Richardson come in when the opposing subs are in. He could do what Jason Terry does in Dallas, score 20 ppg on second teamers.
However, if injuries hit, or Clark flops, tyhe Suns will be shopping Amare or Richardson. And if Kerr trades Amare, he may get fired.
I think Sarver will give Kerr another year, and Gentry stays unless that guy in New York wants to come back. Another coach means another style. Do you guys really want to go through that again?
The sure thing? There is 0.000% chance that Nash is going anywhere this season.
April 29, 2008 Total Eclipse of the Sun. Is the sky falling?
by Hawk42 on Sep 17, 2009 11:55 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I am thinking anything and everything can happen this season. I’d say there is a 0.000% chance Earl Clark goes anywhere. I don’t want it to happen, but I could see the worst occurring, Nash a bit peeved but playing very well and saying, "Well (insert team where Nash feels comfy) wants me, so I wouldn’t mind going and getting a chance to go to the big dance. The organization looks good for treating a classy player classy, and Steve gets a shot at a ring.
That said, it would have to be scenario 3, which I didn’t list: Gigantic Epic Fail
by Wil Cantrell on Sep 17, 2009 1:58 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Starting LB
While I am with you on this, it’s really a wash when you think about it. JRich is not a better scorer than LB, so if you’re looking for offencive production off the bench, then LB is what you want. On the other hand, I think LB’s defense has come a long way and is, in my opinion, better than JRich’s, so I think it’s possible to have LB in off the bench, but then possibly have him close games out late in the 4th quarter? If I were the coach, that is what I would do.
by SunsFTW on Sep 17, 2009 3:01 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
JRich is not a better scorer than LB
I’m not sure if the numbers support this assertion. Rich has 2 more complete seasons on Barbosa, but if you were to compare the two up to their 6th season (that’s how long LB has been in the league), it’s clear Rich averages more points but shoots a lower percentage. Still, we have to consider he played in more games and more minutes, took more shots than LB, so statistically, it’s difficult to compare.
I would agree that LB is a more efficient scorer than Richardson. He’s more of a point-a minute guy, while Richardson needs to find his rhythm in order to get going. As we saw last year, when he’s the featured man and has the green light, he can fill it up. Unfortunately, that doesn’t necessarily equate to a winning team.
I like LB a lot, as aperson as a player. But I am not in the camp that thinks he should be starting. I like him as a 6th man and I do like him closing out games, that is, if it doesn’t create too much of a mismatch on the defensive end for us.
by Wil Cantrell on Sep 17, 2009 4:30 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey Hawk -
Thank you VERY much.
Love your starting five. Earl has tons of potential. J-Dud does also. Even Frye. Our starters could include any of them. Main thing is to start the Brazilian Blur.
MUST start LB. Let’s go SUNS!!!!
MUST start LB. Let’s go SUNS!!!!
by BCrayZ on Sep 17, 2009 6:49 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think we should put the burden of the season's performance on a sacrificial goat
Lou Amundson will be my whipping boy this season, regardless of the team’s wins or losses, and regardless of how “Lightning Lou” plays.
If “Sweet Lou” plays badly, clearly he’s sinking the team. If he plays well and plays a lot, he’s proving how sucky the team actually is.
As Dr. Benway says, “If you can’t be just, be arbitrary.”
This season will be even better as long as I'm drinking while watching!
by ZonaFlash on Sep 17, 2009 12:22 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Dr. Benway? I thought that sounded familiar….William Burroughs, no? If that’s true Zona, you and I are going to be fast friends.
by Wil Cantrell on Sep 17, 2009 1:52 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
...or scurvy f*stf*ckers as H. Thompson would say =D
This season will be even better as long as I'm drinking while watching!
by ZonaFlash on Sep 17, 2009 2:37 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ha, that’s good. You know they’re working on “Rum Diaries.” I can’t wait.
by Wil Cantrell on Sep 17, 2009 4:39 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
things of basket
now playing France vs Spain
France: Parker-Diaw-Batum-Turiaf
Spain: Gasol-Rudy Fernández – Ricky – Navarro – Garbajosa
France 10
Spain 16
The winer advance to semifinals
by matrix7 on Sep 17, 2009 1:15 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
thanks
I usually follow online at:
http://www.eurobasket2009.org/en/default.asp
Blogging Suns Basketball . twitter: @phoenixstan
by Phoenix Stan on Sep 17, 2009 1:17 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Spain well in defense, very aggressive. Well Rudy and Navarro from the 3-point line. Well Gasol.
21-35
by matrix7 on Sep 17, 2009 1:30 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Very well too the second unit
Marc Gasol and Raul López (played in UTAH)
by matrix7 on Sep 17, 2009 1:33 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the udpate, but why not start your own thread. We’re way off topic now.
by Wil Cantrell on Sep 17, 2009 1:45 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oops, sorry that you have bothered, but I don’t understand why I cann’t talk about something as important as a Europe championship
43-59
by matrix7 on Sep 17, 2009 2:05 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Discussing two totally unrelated topics in one thread ends up confusing people. You’d probably get more discussion going with your own thread. And if you haven’t noticed you are the only discussing the Euro Championships.
I recommend you start your own thread and then post a write up tomorrow, then anyone who wants to participate can without worry or conufsion. Thanx Matrix.
by Wil Cantrell on Sep 17, 2009 2:20 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
important? maybe if you're in Europe
April 29, 2008 Total Eclipse of the Sun. Is the sky falling?
by Hawk42 on Sep 17, 2009 10:16 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t understand anything at all. Do you feel attacked? This is your space, ok. I will not take your role, do not worry.
by matrix7 on Sep 17, 2009 2:41 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Wow
Spain kicked some serious French ass!
Blogging Suns Basketball . twitter: @phoenixstan
by Phoenix Stan on Sep 17, 2009 2:41 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
If a matador ate croissants, he'd be toast, the bull would gore him
April 29, 2008 Total Eclipse of the Sun. Is the sky falling?
by Hawk42 on Sep 17, 2009 10:18 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I also have a blog that talks about basketball (www.nbadictos.es). It isn’t only mine; we are several friends and we also have a radio program. Occasionally I write an article; at first was one every week, then all depended on the free time and work. And we don’t care if people talk about what they want, provided they do so politely. Nor do we care if a person does 2, 3, 4 or 10 comments in a row.
by matrix7 on Sep 17, 2009 2:49 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Comments in a row.
What about 11 or 15?
by eagleheart on Sep 17, 2009 11:48 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Back on topic
LB starting? Please, on this team he has to play off the bench. Unless Dragic suddenly became an impact player through offseason work. A shot creating PG is a great change of pace from what Nash is.
I think the doom and gloom is crazy. A few teams in front of the Suns got worse in the offseason and Utah could become a muddle with Boozer’s situation hanging over them. The Nuggets look ready to come down a bit and probably overachieved. Its very possible the Suns could win around 52 games and get a #3. No they probably don’t have the guns to beat the Spurs and certainly not the Lakers, but if all that matters is a legitimate title shot then maybe 24 teams should take the year off. I think this is a much better team than people are giving credit for. Ask yourself is this team not at the level of the 2004 or especially the 2005 team? I think they compare very well with those teams so let’s not think about what blows up and start thinking about what can be developed this year to convince Amare to stay and develop one or two more players (Clark and Dragic, you’ve been paged) to get us to be a serious contender. Kobe and Duncan seem destined to lose a step in the next year or two so the opportunity is not that far away.
by Fakers Stink on Sep 18, 2009 11:35 PM MDT reply actions 1 recs
I like your handle
Lakers suck!!!
April 29, 2008 Total Eclipse of the Sun. Is the sky falling?
by Hawk42 on Sep 20, 2009 8:50 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff.
Even I, who know in my heart that LB MUST start alongside Nash (and finish) for our team to get the MOST WINS, recognize the flaw. Not ready to play Dragic at all, unless he earns the time in competition at practice vs. other point prospects, who, at this time, we do not have. Too much RISK. Earl is the ONLY one of the 4 draft picks we have from this year and last year that I would take that risk with and play. That still gives us 10 guys to play, with MUCH less risk. We probably don’t need more than 10, if not for the NBA minimum rule.
Dragic plays best, not at the point, but off of the ball. Like to give him a shot at the 2 spot, but I believe Tucker is MUCH better and that he deserves his time. J- Rich (unless he is traded) is much better than Tucker and the other non-starters and, as 6th man, should play the most. Still, among the 2 guards, LB is the one who will need (and deserves) to play the most overall minutes, even if a third of those minutes are backing Nash (playing WITH each J-Rich and Tucker in the back court), more or less. That said, LB would have to BOTH start (and finish) at the 2 and also back up Nash. With many other players it would be too much. But DON’T underestimate the Brazilian Blu!!!!. LB played the whole game (except for 2 minutes rest in each ) in back-to-back-to-back-to-back F.I.B.A.games, leading Brazil to the GOLD… even when playing hurt. More than any other member of our team, LB has shown amazing energy and stamina in the back of a back-to-back here in the NBA. Have LB penciled in for 40 minutes a game while Dragic can ride the pine. No rule says we have to play every player every game.and Dragic had his shot. It’s LB’s turn.
MUST start LB. Let’s go SUNS!!!!
MUST start LB. Let’s go SUNS!!!!
by BCrayZ on Sep 19, 2009 2:35 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
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