Will the real Phoenix Mercury please stand up

by Seth Pollack on Sep 2, 2009 9:59 PM MDT in WNBA / Phoenix Mercury

Well, there you have it. The Mercury drop a game to a sub .500 team and then come back the very next day and smoke the league's best team. Or really I should say the team with the best record in the league because all things considered I don't think the Fever are really all that strong.

That's a topic for another night though. The Fever came in missing their best player (or at least their top scorer) in Katie Douglas and having already wrapped up the best record in the East seem to be in cruise control. They came into this game having lost 3 of their last 4 and they certainly didn't look like a championship caliber team tonight.

You combine their lethargic play with extremely hot shooting by the Mercury (59% FG / 56% 3PG) and this game really was never very competitive. I would like to give the Mercury full credit for a great road win but watching (and in some cases re-watching) this game I just can't do it.

The Fever started the game like many teams are doing. Attacking Tangela Smith in the paint. Tammy Suton-Brown had 7 of her 19 points in the 1st quarter and all of those came in the first 6 minutes before Coach Gaines replaced all his five of his starters with his entire bench minus Brooke Smith. I don't ever recall the Mercury making that kind of five in / five out substitution in a game.

For those first 6 minutes or so the Fever were scoring at will and it was only the hot outside shooting of the Mercury that prevented another early deficit. The Mercury held a slim 18-15 lead before the mass substitution.

Then a funny thing happened. Defense. The front line of Bonner, Ohlde and Taylor started pushing the Fever post players out of the paint and used activity and length to disrupt the passing lanes which lead to a 10 - 4 run in the final 3:38 of the quarter. Bonner had 6 and Taylor 4.

The push by the second unit gave the Mercury a solid 9 point edge which they would take into the locker room since both teams managed 27 points in the 2nd period.

All season long the Mercury's best quarter of play has been the third. They average about 3 more points and about 4% better shooting coming out of the half. Tonight was no exception as the Mercury starters extended a 9 point lead to a 16 point lead within 3 minutes and 15 seconds. Game over.

I wish I could be more excited about this game but the bottom line is you are not going to shoot 56% from three every night and your opponent in the playoffs - or even the next three games vs Atlanta, Seattle and LA - isn't going to come out so flat.

The rotations being used by Cory Gaines continue to leave me scratching my head. I can't ever recall a team this close to the playoffs experimenting with so many different line up combinations. I understand that he just got Taylor and Ohlde back a few weeks ago but it is pretty clear by now what each of the players on this team brings to the table. One has to think that having establish rotation patterns at this point in the season would be beneficial to a team trying to finally put all its many talented pieces together.

There's a reason he's the coach and I'm not and the bottom line is as long as it works then as they say - scoreboard. But for now, the Mercury are only 5-4 since their fantastic 4-1 road trip which also coincides with the addition of Taylor and Ohlde to the line up.

The Mercury still are only 1 1/2 games ahead of Storm with the two teams playing in Seattle on the 10th. If the Mercury secure the number one seed and roll into the playoffs strong with more versatility in how they match-up against each opponent then that will make all this experimentation worth it.

If however, the Mercury lose the top spot and have to face both LA and Seattle in the playoffs and their confidence is shaken by inconsistent play to close out the season then we can look back at this period of time and question the decisions.

For now, the coach has earned the benefit of the doubt but he's only got three games left to prove it.

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Comments

So...

would you rather see Coach Gaines go Mike D and only play 6.5 guys (gals)?

Geez, I don’t even know if the Mercury is a top-heavy team or a deep team…

Carlos pub, locker rooms, the Duke of skull months, the head of the men, the probability of the risk of cancer is 65 percent, but his season with a broken leg.

by gadogry on Sep 3, 2009 9:32 AM MDT reply actions

I know, right

I was thinking about that more this morning. It is hard to go 9 or 10 deep in the NBA with 48 minutes. He’s doing it with 40 minutes. That’s a challenge for sure.

But here’s the thing. It’s not so much the minutes and who’s getting them (although I do think Ohlde and Smith should swap about 5 or 7 minutes) but it is the combinations. They keep changing. So players don’t know who they are going to be paired with so they don’t develop any consistency or rhythm. During this period the turnovers are WAY up which has to be a sign of that as well.

Several times we’ve seen the unit on the floor in the final 2 or 3 minutes of a close game not being the starters or not even being some other lineup we see often but instead it is a group that hasn’t ever played or even practiced together.

Typically you think that your closing group in that situation is your best unit, right? For the Merc that’s Cappie and Tuarasi of course and then Penny, Bonner and either Smith or Ohdle. Lately it has been Ohlde. But that unit is never on the floor together like that and in practice they run a more traditionally A and B type thing with one of the point guards on either side.

Look, this team is EXTREMELY versitile. Tuarasi can play 4 positions and guard 4 positions. Taylor can play the 3 or 4. Bonner can play the 2, 3 or 4 or even 5. Cappie played pg all winter in Russia so she can play the 1 or 2 (in fact she typically plays the 2 but is also #2 in the WNBA in assists). Smith usually starts at the 5 but is much better suited to play the 4 b/c she doesn’t defend the paint or rebound well and she also leads the league in 3pt FG%.

It is a HUGE advantage to have all those potential combinations. The team can really throw a lot of different looks on the floor. I get why he would want to experiment and find time for all sorts of different line ups.

But lets face it. There’s a risk to that. The Mercury have lost some games over this stretch they should have won. If the gamble pays off the team wins these final 3 games and secures the West top seed then the team will probably be better in the playoffs b/c of it.

But, he’s also left it so that if Seattle keeps winning that game on the road on the 10th becomes huge and they could end up as the 2nd seed which would be a big blow

Blogging Suns Basketball

by Seth Pollack on Sep 3, 2009 9:43 AM MDT up reply actions

Btw - to answer your question

the Mercury are both top heavy (Taurasi leads the league in scoring and Cappie is 3rd or 4th) and they are also very very deep…

The only other team with even close to this much talent is the LA Sparks

Blogging Suns Basketball

by Seth Pollack on Sep 3, 2009 9:49 AM MDT up reply actions

Now I got more questions...

Does the fact that our players can play so many different positions tell more about how special they are, or it’s just how the WNBA works?

In NBA, a center can be easily a feet taller and weigh twice as much as a PG. That’s why unless you’re Lebron or Magic Johnson, you can’t really play 4 positions (and guarding 4 positions is even harder). But if it’s ten 5’10" guys playing a pickup game, then anyone can be anything. Is the WNBA closer to the former or the latter?

Carlos pub, locker rooms, the Duke of skull months, the head of the men, the probability of the risk of cancer is 65 percent, but his season with a broken leg.

by gadogry on Sep 3, 2009 10:10 AM MDT up reply actions

Great question

I think the answer is a bit of both…

In general, there is much less difference between a shooting guard and small forward in the WNBA and oveall I would say you tend to see “post players” and “wing players” tend to be much more interchangable. Frankly, that is changing the NBA as well with guys like Pau Gasol, LaMarcus Aldridge and even Earl Clark and Amare Stoudemire.

What you do see in the WNBA is point guards that are true point guards and some teams that have bigs that can’t shoot (like in the NBA).

That said, the Mercury I think have more versatility then most teams. Taurasi at her kind of “mid range” size can both guard bigger players b/c she is tough and physical and she can also guard the other team’s best wing. She absolutely stone cold shut down Becky Hammon who is one of the better point guards in the game.

On the Mercury, really the only players that a more traditional in their roles are the 5’3" Temeka Johnson who is a point guard. Period. And Nicole Ohlde who is a center. Period. She can step out and hit the 10 footer (she made two last night) but she’s best in the paint either facing up or back to the basket.

LeCoe Willingham is pretty much only a PF. She isn’t mobile enough to guard quicker/smaller players and she is too short at 6’ to guard bigs. She pretty much is a defensive liability on the floor regardless.

The rookie DeWanna Bonner at he size 6’4" has very good ball handling skills and rebounds far better then you would think given he skinny frame. She’s a player that is special that way. Like Candace Parker (but of course not nearly as good as Parker)

Blogging Suns Basketball

by Seth Pollack on Sep 3, 2009 10:55 AM MDT up reply actions

To clarify

What I meant by “"post players" and "wing players" tend to be much more interchangable.”

was that the differnce between a 4 and 5 isn’t that great and the difference between a 2 and 3 isn’t that great. There is a big difference between a 3 and 4. At least on most teams. The Mercury (like the Suns) tend to emphasize speed and scoring so they are smaller especially at the 4 which is why the Mercury not a good rebounding team (unless Bonner is playing which is why I think she should be getting more minutes)

Blogging Suns Basketball

by Seth Pollack on Sep 3, 2009 10:58 AM MDT up reply actions