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Phoenix Suns Breakdown: Lack of D Means Suns Need To Open Up Second Front

After a pair of impressive victories over the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers, the Phoenix Suns were thumped in Miami, losing to the Heat 123-96. The problem wasn’t strictly that Phoenix’ defense was its usual sieve, but that the offense wasn’t prodigious enough to compensate. Let’s examine the specific performances by Phoenix’ cast to discover the biggest culprits.

Excluding fast breaks, extreme early offense, broken plays, and the extended garbage time of the fourth quarter, I’ve charted Phoenix’ defensive responsibilities and offensive sets to assign credit or blame to Suns players.

Taking a look at the Suns’ defense first, they had too many breakdowns to stay competitive with a potent team like the Heat. Charting possessions and assigning individuals as the "most important defenders" to specific plays (the individual defender in an iso or post up, either the ball handler or screen defender on a screen/roll, and the appropriate player in a zone, a closeout or rotation), you can see the disappointing totals on an individual basis.

Star-divide


Jason Richardson was the second most egregious defender, allowing 15 points in nine possessions. On five possessions where J-Rich needed to close out on a shooter or simply gave his man too much space, the Heat scored nine points in five possessions. Totaled in that includes J-Rich not tagging a wide open Chris Bosh in transition, and leaking out on a brake after contesting a Bosh miss, only to have the Heat grab the offensive board and find Bosh for a basket. Not fighting through screens and poor rotations made up the remaining numbers.

Grant Hill was decent, mostly because LeBron’s jumper was iffy. He gave up seven points in six possessions.

Channing Frye had a hit-or-miss game on defense. His final total was 20 points allowed on 21 possessions. He was posted twice by Bosh and was mercifully forced to foul him, leading to four Heat points. He was also attacked directly in isolations for eight points on six possessions, leading to 12 points on eight possessions, a poor number.

In his screen and perimeter defense, Frye was guilty of at least four bad shows (including twice where he hedged on the wrong side of the screen!), but wasn’t heavily punished, allowing six points in 10 possessions.

When stationed under the rim or asked to rotate to protect the hoop, Frye actually only allowed two points in a trio of possessions, holding his ground on a Wade assault, and rotating to force a Wade miss near the basket as his two highlights.

Still, while the numbers don’t back it up, Frye was largely responsible for not checking Bosh on a number of plays, and his screen defense needs to be much improved, at least at his 2010 postseason level, for the Suns to be respectable at that end of the floor.

Jared Dudley was a huge plus. He did foul Wade on a jump shot (he hit one free throw), but two exceptional rotations led to a block on Dwyane Wade (which he got credit for) and a half-block on Bosh (which Turkoglu got full credit for). Indeed, Dudley is a shining defender blessed not only with athleticism, but terrific awareness.

Earl Clark also acquainted himself well, jumping straight up as Wade tried to sucker him into making contact with a pump fake, and rotating over on a LeBron drive, forcing a miss.

Hakim Warrick is another non-defender, with Heat players shooting 5-7 for 13 points on 10 possessions against him. He was iso’d or posted up four times for eight points, and had several poor shows on screens, leading to five more points on three possessions.

His stat line would look even worse if not for two offensive fouls drawn, one when Udonis Haslem tried to create space with three Suns draped around him (after Warrick completely botched a rotation leaving Joel Anthony wide open at the rim where he missed a point blank layup), and one on a Wade forearm extension navigating a screen.

Despite his reputation, Steve Nash’s defense wasn’t too bad—seven points on nine possessions. Most of his defense involved helping elsewhere and allowing Carlos Arroyo to shoot long jump shots, but against the Heat, that’s simply executing the game plan.

No, Hedo Turkoglu was the biggest disaster. In 13 possessions where Turkoglu was the most important defender, he was responsible for 23 points allowed.

Turkoglu’s defensive deficiencies were exposed right from the opening tip when he was posted and toasted by Chris Bosh on Miami’s first possession. Later on Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and even Juwan Howard got in the act, taking Turkoglu into the post and having points come out of it, whether directly, with an assist pass, or a series of plays that directly transpired out of Turkoglu being posted.

For the duration, Turkoglu was posted four times with the Heat going 4-4 for 8 points against Turkoglu’s overmatched defense. Turkoglu was also asked to defend the paint once, in which Dwyane Wade blew by him and hit a layup, plus a foul (though on another possession a  Heat player simply threw the ball right at Turkoglu under the hoop). This means that in six possessions of Talk the Turk defending the basket, Miami shot 5-5 with 11 points, for an incredible ratio.

Naturally, Turkoglu is out of position as a power forward and defending post players is not his repertoire. However on close outs and screen defense, the Heat shot 5-7 for 12 points on seven possessions, another awful ratio from Phoenix’ end. The fact is that Turkoglu is a deplorable defender, and without Dwight Howard erasing his mistakes, his miscues are even more egregious.

On a small-ball team like the Suns, Turkoglu doesn’t have the shot-blocking behind him to compensate for his mistakes, and he isn’t quick enough to gamble for steals and deflections that would fuel Phoenix’ running game.

This means he must compensate by producing on offense, but no plays were directly produced out of  his screen/rolls, and three isolations led to four points. He did move the ball with alacrity, but his five shot attempts are not enough for a team needing a second offensive front for teams that can stymie Phoenix’ screen/roll game.

That second front was needed because Miami made excellent hedges on Steve Nash’s high screen/rolls, often taking away the roll man by blitzing Nash, while closing hard on three-point shooters. In plays that didn’t result in an offense reset (most of Phoenix’ halfcourt possessions start with a Nash screen/roll somewhere), that staple of Phoenix’ offense resulted in the Suns going 7-17 with 18 points in 20 possessions, a suboptimal number. Nash did end up simply isolating on six possessions, resulting in six points. He also was involved in a curl which resulted in Channing Frye missing a jumper on one possession, and a baseline flex sequences leading into a pin down for Nash was run twice with Hedo Turkoglu getting one free throw in two possessions out of the action.

With Miami’s defense sufficiently bottling up Nash, Phoenix had trouble generating offense from its supporting cast members. Grant Hill shot 1-6 on various isolations, leading to five points on seven possessions. Hill screen/rolls were marginally better—four points on three possessions. Against the exceptional defense of LeBron James, Hill simply looked like an old man.

Action run by Jason Richardson on the perimeter had some success—seven points on five possessions, but he was ineffective in the post against Miami’s physical position denial, well timed double teams, and perimeter closeouts—three post ups, zero points. Richardson was awful from downtown—0-5—though many of his misses were open looks that he usually makes with reliability.

Goran Dragic had trouble operating for the same reasons Nash did—six points in eight possessions.

As for the rest of the team, Josh Childress had some success in limited possessions in the post, Jared Dudley left his three-point shot at home, and Hakim Warrick was near useless without open rolling lanes to catch and finish.

Against teams lacking the personnel, the wherewithal, or the desire, the Suns won’t need to worry too much about secondary options as Nash’s screen/roll game is one of the most difficult plays in the league to corral, especially with Phoenix’ roster of athletes, gunners, and spare parts that fit perfectly into a normally well-oiled machine.

The Suns also play with admirable unselfishness, and are explosive in an open field. Plus, Alvin Gentry is a creative play caller and the Suns’ base sets get enough spacing and weak-side action (usually on a baseline brush screen for Jason Richardson) to overwhelm average teams, or good teams playing average basketball.  

The problem comes against teams like Miami, which executed a well-conceived defensive gameplan to trap and hard hedge Nash’s screens, and used its superior defensive talent to limit an explosive Suns offense. Whereas in the past, Amar’e Stoudemire high post isolations would put severe pressure on a defense as a second option, Jason Richardson isn’t quite as dangerous.

Defensively, the performance displayed just how valuable Robin Lopez is to the team as he gives the Suns a toughness and a ruggedness that Frye and Warrick can’t fathom to match.

Overall, while the Suns don’t have the defensive chops to seriously contend for a title (they aren’t winning four shootouts with the Lakers in a postseason series), they could be able to storm to the conference finals again in a good, but ultimately wide open West, even without Stoudemire.

Phoenix would be well-served from here until then to try to develop a reliable secondary offensive attack better than Grant Hill creating or Jason Richardson posting up. If they can’t, with their inability to stop anybody, they may not be able to go on a run like last season’s screen/roll through the postseason.

Comment 55 comments  |  19 recs  | 

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Very well done.

Yes, it was an atrocious game – but I’d like to see this kind of analysis on a game where we play well. I’m curious about the methodology you used – fascinating read. Recc’ed.

Auntie Em: Hate you, hate Kansas, taking the dog.
Dorothy

by haremoor on Nov 19, 2010 7:53 AM MST reply actions  

Definitely would like to see how this plays out against different teams

Even over a series of games would be great.

But I think in just the small sample it asserted that Dudley and Hill were pretty good defenders and that Warrick and Turk suck out loud tend to struggle in spells.

I think the game might be a pretty good bellwether from that standpoint.

Not sure exactly how you assign the “most important defenders” though. Is there a way that designation might suffer from subjectivity and slanting of data?

For instance – and this is totally hypothetical – If Nash and Turk get beat on a screen and roll, who gets credited for the bad defensive play? Aren’t there lots of plays where an argument could be made that more than one player or different players were to blame for the breakdown?

What is your perspective on these situations?

I like the data you’re compiling. Most of my “data” comes from musings and make believe. :)

by Jim Coughenour on Nov 19, 2010 1:42 PM MST up reply actions  

Fair point

…and some of the data is fairly subjective. On the sequence where Dudley and Turkoglu blocked Wade, for example, Dudley sniffed it out from the weakside and rotated completely to the strong-side paint while Turkoglu took a step and a half backwards and rotated off of Bosh who was wide open at the free throw line. I’m going to give more credit to Dudley. His rotation required more effort (and I believe was more correct. Turkoglu can rotate from the top to the corner and someone from the strong side could fill onto Bosh).

With each individual play you look at the circumstances. On one screen/roll, Frye showed and Wade split him. It’s nearly always the fault of the hedger if a screen defender gets split. He’s out too far. Iso’s are hard because a mark of a good defender is also helping out properly when a teammate is isolated. Since the suns played very straight up, I usually simply punished the person who was beaten.

On one sequence, Grant Hill not only went under a screen, but he got stuck under the roller and took a bunch of time to get back to LeBron. Hill was penalized for not closing out on Bron since Bron was afforded an open look with the screen defender beginning to rotate back to his man. Of course Bron missed the jumper so it looks good for Hill statistically, but he’s the player who gets tagged as the most important defender in that instance.

With the rest, it’s strictly a judgment call, and the evidence is based totally on my credibility of determining who gets credit and blame.

by Erick Blasco on Nov 19, 2010 4:13 PM MST up reply actions  

Great stuff

as for the additional offensive threats, I think the Suns are well aware of this. As you might imagine, without a super star go-to option, they are working on multiple answers.

Josh Childress is a guy who will increasingly get post touches against second-unit mismatches and I think will increase his scoring once that splint comes off his right index finger.

Hedo is obviously a big key. We got a glimpse of what he can do in the Denver game when he took over in the fourth quarter and basically won that game.

Warrick’s post offense is better than expected and will get some run in different circumstances.

We’ve seen Dragic go on runs and put up good numbers in limited minutes.

It’s going to have to be a true team effort and I think that will work to a point. That point being the playoffs when the lack of a legit super-star option will be exposed. There’s a slim chance that Hedo can find his legs and play that part and there’s an even slimmer chance the Robin Lopez will develop into more of scoring threat.

Robin’s issue of course is staying healthy and regaining his explosiveness. We saw last year when his body was right that he’s an option and can put up 15 points a game but he’s far from being a late-game option.

So yeah, the Suns have a ceiling but so do most other teams. It is what it is.

Raising Arizona Sports at SB Nation Arizona twitter: @sethpo

by Seth Pollack on Nov 19, 2010 9:25 AM MST reply actions   1 recs

Thanks and no, I'm not staff...

I’m a vagabond SB writer writing breakdowns on each team before the All-Star Break. I was the community leader at Bleacherreport for a few years, but the place has too many homers and bad writing due to its open source nature. Despite the quantitative analysis used, I’m actually a Charley Rosen disciple who was almost banned from Bullets Forever earlier this year. Fans of bad teams don’t like me…for obvious reasons.

by Erick Blasco on Nov 19, 2010 4:19 PM MST up reply actions  

robin scoring more

I think we got plenty of guys to score,we need to rebound to push the pace.

by stevedavis_ on Nov 19, 2010 10:42 AM MST up reply actions  

We need a go to scorer

That can create his own shot when the offense stalls. Thats the one thing we lost when Amare left. JRich is about as close as we have, maybe Turk if he continues to improve. The Heat showed the best way to disrupt our potent offense, by trapping the pnr. We won’t get far in the playoffs shooting jumpers.

by Waggy on Nov 19, 2010 2:48 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

Exactly

Yeah the Suns need more rebounding, and I’m sure Lopez will provide some of that, but Amar’e wasn’t a great rebounder, and Frye is a toothpick, and those were the main bigs last year (along with Amundson who is an energetic board man). The Suns still got to the conference finals and with some major flaws on their roster stretched the Lakers to six games, blitzed the Spurs, and stifled the Blazers.

I don’t know if the Suns can do that again without a second option. They still match up well with the Spurs because Duncan isn’t trapping any screens any more, but Portland can play some screen defense, as can many other Western teams. If the Suns’ offense goes…

by Erick Blasco on Nov 19, 2010 4:35 PM MST up reply actions  

Lopez

How is Lopez’ post game? Because he strikes me as a roller, rebounder, and a defender but I’ve never looked at him as a guy who can create for others, or even himself in the post.

I think Turkoglu, as clutch as he is, has been exposed over the last season plus. I’d try to work Richardson as a second-option because he’s explosive and versatile, but I’ve never loved his decision making.

I liked what Childress brought to the table—-he needs to relearn NBA defense though (you never give up the middle on a wing screen/roll when you’re shading the guy baseline as what happened on Wade’s reverse dunk in the second quarter). He’s useful, but again, you aren’t going to run an offense around him, just a few niche second-unit plays.

Dragic is a nice player, but I look at it as that if a team is shutting down Nash, Dragic certainly isn’t going to be a consistent attack.

I like Warrick as a cutter. I like Warrick as a shooter. You’ve seen more of him than I have this season, but I don’t remember him having much of a dangerous post game in Milwaukee or Memphis. His one attempt in the post against Miami barely drew iron. How has his post game been so far this early season?

Thanks for the compliment and your thoughts.

by Erick Blasco on Nov 19, 2010 4:26 PM MST up reply actions  

Maybe, maybe not

Some of the specificities are subjective.

I have the game recorded. I knew the 4th quarter was garbage time so I didn’t use it. I took out a pen and paper and just charted plays looking for breakdowns (and there were many) on defense, though the Heat may be the most talented team in the NBA and what plays the Suns ran on offense.

The Suns move the ball really well so it’s real hard differentiating between where Nash S/R ends and (player) iso begins. Basically if a pass went to a player and he took a half second to make a decision, I looked at that as an offense restart. A handful of times there may have been resulting mismatches that could have counted as the first play but I needed to draw a line somewhere.

Post ups, curls, etc, are usually easy to diagnose. The Suns also run some obvious continuity that I can see. Their flex-into-pindown is a set play, though there’s screen/roll continuity afterward.

I eliminated broken plays, early offense, and fast break…If Hakim Warrick couldn’t stop Bron, Wade, and Bosh on a breakaway, he shouldn’t be punished for it. That’s an offensive breakdown more than anything.

by Erick Blasco on Nov 19, 2010 4:44 PM MST up reply actions  

This was a pretty good read...

You came with an unique analysis…I like to see your metrics, but I kinda agree with most of what you said…Run this again on Saturday when we play the Pacers and see how the Suns do…

STAT may be gone but the Suns will rise....!

by Daryl Ray on Nov 19, 2010 10:56 AM MST reply actions  

Won't be around!

I’ll probably be writing a less microscopic article on the Sacramento Kings…

by Erick Blasco on Nov 19, 2010 4:45 PM MST up reply actions  

excellent, excellent post

Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun

by Alex Laugan on Nov 19, 2010 11:01 AM MST reply actions  

I thought it was you at first

"I feel younger almost every year. I feel like I'm getting better every year. I feel like the season gets easier for me the last two years." Steve Nash

by 2NASHTY on Nov 19, 2010 11:43 AM MST up reply actions  

this is much different/better analysis

than I can give, for sure.

However, I really dislike Rosen (prob because he is wont to point out Suns’ fundamental defensive deficiencies even after a win)…

Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun

by Alex Laugan on Nov 20, 2010 7:59 AM MST up reply actions  

Rosen

I think he does so because the Suns consider themselves a title contender, and you can win a few shootouts without paying much defense, but it always comes back to bite you against extremely good teams in a playoff series.

by Erick Blasco on Nov 20, 2010 11:17 AM MST up reply actions  

Hire this man, Seth.

"That's how you're gonna beat 'em, Butch. They keep underestimating you.~Butch Coolidge

by East Bay Ray on Nov 19, 2010 11:13 AM MST reply actions  

Incredible analysis. Rec'd.

Pick this guy up, Seth. Seriously

Pulling a smooth maneuver by hitching a ride on the Earl Clark bandwagon with Larfleeze and Bkj. Glad to be aboard! Extend J-Rich or we'll be sorry!!!!

by EricSun89 on Nov 19, 2010 11:19 AM MST reply actions  

There are a lot of words in this I don’t understand. If I understood them, I’d rec the piece.

Hedo Turkoglu is my new favourite.

by keify34 on Nov 19, 2010 11:24 AM MST reply actions  

I read halfway through and skimmed the rest.

It is A LOT of words.

If you say anything, I'll thump you again.

by noonoo on Nov 19, 2010 4:28 PM MST via mobile up reply actions   1 recs

lol

Read some more books!!!

by Erick Blasco on Nov 19, 2010 4:45 PM MST up reply actions  

Suns in good shape

I am very excited about how the Suns are progressing so far this season. When I consider the grueling schedule of the first dozen games, 6-6 is praise worthy. The next 12 games should produce at least an 8-4 record to be looked at as successful.
This 2010/2011 Suns team looks very comfortable with themselves and how they are beginning to work together smoothly. I feel that after game number 24 the Phoenix team should be ready to move up the standings and capture a playoff spot.

by Arizona Retiree on Nov 19, 2010 11:43 AM MST reply actions  

"acquianted" vs. "acquitted"

FYI, Erick, on your description of Clark’s performance, the word you wanted was “acquitted,” not “acquainted.” In case you would like to know. Not trying to be a know-it-all.

by 8472species on Nov 19, 2010 1:37 PM MST reply actions  

(I was an English lit major.)

by 8472species on Nov 19, 2010 1:37 PM MST up reply actions  

I love speaking English when I'm lit!

"That's how you're gonna beat 'em, Butch. They keep underestimating you.~Butch Coolidge

by East Bay Ray on Nov 19, 2010 2:25 PM MST up reply actions  

And when aren't you lit?

Auntie Em: Hate you, hate Kansas, taking the dog.
Dorothy

by haremoor on Nov 19, 2010 4:26 PM MST up reply actions  

I'm sober as a judge at the moment

But I can see where it’s hard to tell.

"That's how you're gonna beat 'em, Butch. They keep underestimating you.~Butch Coolidge

by East Bay Ray on Nov 19, 2010 4:36 PM MST up reply actions  

then don't read my fan post

It’ll drive you nuts

"I feel younger almost every year. I feel like I'm getting better every year. I feel like the season gets easier for me the last two years." Steve Nash

by 2NASHTY on Nov 19, 2010 2:49 PM MST up reply actions  

I love vocabulary games

When you’ve been called as many names as I have you need to have a big one – vocabulary that is.

Earl Clark also acquainted himself well, jumping straight up as Wade tried to sucker him into making contact with a pump fake, and rotating over on a LeBron drive, forcing a miss.

acquainted – 1. to make more or less familiar, aware, or conversant
2. to furnish with knowledge; inform
3. to bring into social contact; introduce

acquitted – 1. to relieve from a charge of fault or crime; declare not guilty
2. to release or discharge (a person) from an obligation.
3. to settle or satisfy

I think he did mean acquainted, as in Earl introduced himself to the game well or made himself familiar with the game by coming in and playing good defense.

The author could be the arbiter. What did you mean?

by Jim Coughenour on Nov 19, 2010 1:58 PM MST up reply actions  

Oh definitely acquainted

Clark is still extremely young and is still making his introductions to the league with what he can and can’t do well. I think in his limited minutes in the first half, he “acquainted” himself pretty nicely. I still have no idea what he can do on offense, and my sample size on him is still way, way too small but he made a good impression on me by jumping straight (though he still needs to stay down) and making an effective rotation on a LeBron drive.

by Erick Blasco on Nov 19, 2010 4:49 PM MST up reply actions  

Not a problem

You know what makes a good writer? A great editor. I’ll make the correction in a few.

by Erick Blasco on Nov 19, 2010 4:46 PM MST up reply actions  

please give Clark mo' minutes

I’d say Earl Clark earned more minutes with that performance, wouldn’t you? At least one more game’s worth. This isn’t a “must start and finish with Earl Clark” post; Clark is potentially an untapped resource..I hope he gets lots of minutes against the Charlote Bobcats. That seems a low-risk proposition.

by 8472species on Nov 19, 2010 1:50 PM MST reply actions  

The problem

…is that young players, by their nature, always make mistakes. Always. Losing teams with a future in mind can just trot out the kids and let them learn on the job, and if they make mistakes so what, they aren’t going anywhere.

The Suns though have the playoffs in mind. And if Clark misses three or four rotations and doesn’t compensate with his offense in the second quarter of a three point loss, sure everybody would key in on that random fourth-quarter game changing play/decision, etc, but Clark’s inexperience would have been just as key to that loss.

The Suns probably view themselves a title contender, and they definitely look at themselves a playoff team. They’re going to go with sure things until they get desperate, or unless their philosophy involves a more long-term approach.

Until then, Clark needs to keep working in practice—-that’s where minutes and trust are earned.

by Erick Blasco on Nov 19, 2010 5:05 PM MST up reply actions  

Wow

Where did you get these stats? Awesome read. Thanks!

"Basketball doesn't build character. It reveals it"

by PanamaSun on Nov 19, 2010 3:33 PM MST reply actions  

My own...

Just charting the game as it goes. I’m too broke for any of this synergy sports stuff.

by Erick Blasco on Nov 19, 2010 5:06 PM MST up reply actions  

Have you been a coach by any chance?

You sounded like a coach to me. Great read! A “Coach-like” perspective for our site would be a great addition if ever…

'D' in 'SunDs' (word I first encountered from Paul Coro) <--- is no longer a juxtaposition.

by Phoenix SunDs on Nov 20, 2010 3:55 AM MST reply actions  

Oh no...

I’ve never even been a player beyond intramurals. I just like reading and watching stuff from coaches around the media because I think coaches know exactly what goes into winning and losing games, and the ones who are really critical like Rosen and Van Gundy are quick to note details and theory that fans, journalists, and players don’t pick up on.

Coaches really pay attention to the defensive end of the floor and the weak side of the offense where most people—-myself included at times—-are fixated on simply watching the ball. So much of the game is dependent on what happens off the ball, I think that’s the main difference between coach-based and other forms of NBA analysis.

I’ve just gravitated and adopted the approach as best I can.

by Erick Blasco on Nov 20, 2010 11:15 AM MST up reply actions  

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