Response to "Phoenix Suns Breakdown"
Please, while the analysis fun to read, it is not "fair" in any respect to the way pro basketball is scheduled and played.
Any single night any team in the NBA can beat another team.
Just look at the number of possessions possible per game. It is somewhere between 180 and 210, to make the math easy, lets say it is 200. So, you get 100 possessions and score overall at a 50% clip, then you score 100 points. If you lose by 10 points, that would be 5 possessions or less. READY.. drum roll ... 5/200, that is a margin of difference in a game is 2.5 percent. Right now in the NBA the only Miami and LA Lakers are 10+ over their opponents on average, the rest of the league is below 2.5%
This is why health and the schedule impacts teams so heavily If a team plays a lot of back to back games, on the second night your team falls of by 2.5%, then you lose. If you star player is playing off by 10% with a groin injury and the "off" is 2.5% overall for the team, you loose by 10 points. Flu, ankle sprain, bad back, Heavy travel, 4 games 7 nights, team travel is too grueling.. ( One more thing, any officiating bias can and does change the outcome of the game, when the officiating crew makes bad calls, or allows aggressiveness on one side of the floor and not the other, or favors of one team over the other, then it can decide a game.)
My point is that at the pro level, the margin of a win is so small that on any single night, any team in the NBA can beat another team. PERIOD.
If you want to analyze a team’s strength and weakness you need a sample which contains enough games to have any validity at all. To slice out even one game and hope to extrapolate into a valid analysis, you would need to find an "average game", and of course even then it would be a wild ass projection.
PS. I do absolutely love the effort and I think the writing is well done, and to my chagrin, I agree with some of it. But I cannot let the content slide.