Why Losing Amar'e For Nothing Is No Big Deal
by MMotherwell on Feb 3, 2010 12:39 AM MST
Email
PrintA LOT of people make the argument that the Suns need to “get something” for Amar'e. This is just not true, and for one simple reason:
Cap space is just as good.
Seriously, everyone, repeat after me:
A LOT of Cap space is a good thing.
Go look at this spreadsheet I created: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tKclQktDfyiViXOePtJkldg&output=html (I took the data from HoopsHype here: http://hoopshype.com/salaries/phoenix.htm)
There are three columns: for 2010/11 salaries:
- With Amar’e, Hilla nd Frye staying.
- Without Amar’e, but with Hill and Frye.
- Without Amar’e, Hill, Frye (all three player options),
Below this I have added three cap numbers:
- $55,000,000
- $57,000,000 and
- $60,000,000.
Cap space for each is in bold at the bottom of the screen.
And what does this show? That without Amare, Frye and Hill, we’d have only $42.5 million in committed salary. A cap of $55 mil and we’d be $12.45 mill under the cap. Yes, that is right $12,455,000. That buys us, heck, it might buy Joe Johnson back!
A cap of $57 million and we have a near max $14.5 mil. Chris Bosh might enjoy playing with Nash :)
It seems to me that we should not panic, wait to see if Amar’e leaves $17,000,000 on the table, and if he does leaves, hope Frye leaves as well (I’d love to keep Hill, but Frye surely gets a better FA deal than we can gave him), double down and go after Bosh or, if that fails, Boozer / another bigman star. Not many teams will have much cash left at that point, so we might even get two, like Boozer + Tyrus Thomas.
Remember this spreadsheet next time someone says “we need to get something for Amar’e”, and remember: cap space == that “something”.
NB for those who aren't the Salary cap nut I am, the salary cap FAQ here is invaluable: http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm
This states “The roster charge is equal to the rookie minimum salary for each player below 12. The roster charge only applies during the offseason.” Basically. it stops teams having zero players, and spending all the cap on two players, and then signing minimum contract players.
That is why the “cap hold” in the spreadsheet.
NB II Amundson could still be signed AFTER after signing a FA, as his contract would be a minimum contract, and a team can sign as many of those are they like. We could also waive Griffin, and save $300,000 and still sign him later, but that isn't the meat of my point (although every buck helps sign a FA).
NB III We could also do a "sign and trade" for a player like Bosh, and give up a bit of cash, then use the MLE (probably about $5 million) to sign ANOTHER FA, even say Frye for $4 million. That is what Toronto did this year with Hedo. I ask you: Bosh + MLE player or Amar'e / whatever we get in a trade?
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No – he’s not.
If Channing Frye isn’t worth 4 million dollars, Lou Amundson isn’t.
he’s a ‘white’ reggie evans
by jemagee on Feb 3, 2010 3:06 PM MST up reply actions
I think if Amare comes off the books, we won't be able to sign a player
a player to the same amount of his contract due to the lower cap. I heard it may be because the Suns can offer him more (in the past) due to CBA rules favouring the player’s team.
Is that correct?
The key word under their contracts is PLAYER OPTION
Getting nothing in return is not the only reason Phoenix is afraid of Stoudemire’s current situation. They’re also afraid of him opting in and having another Carlos Boozer situation. I get what you’re going at but your idea is based on the assumption that all those guys want to leave. Frye will not leave (even for more money). He’s found a team where he fits in perfectly with its style. It’s because of Phoenix that his name won’t go down in history as a possible draft pick bust. Grant Hill got nursed back to health here and he declined offers from many contenders this past summer to stay here in Phoenix to play with Steve Nash.
There’s a high probability Amar’e’s leaving so the Suns want to ship him out now so that they won’t have to deal with the trouble that Amar’e will bring in the offseason. If no one wants him, he’ll opt in and stay for one more year (which costs the Suns more). If he gets moved, the Suns don’t have much of a chance to draw a big name guy due to not wanting to go over the cap. The main problem is that the Suns don’t want to see the future of this franchise hinging on whether Amar’e finds a good suitor or not. They would rather trade him now and get some young pieces, expiring contracts, or draft picks in return to move forward. I get where you’re coming from but it seems pretty unrealistic.
You can't think they're actually afraid
Of one of their best players opting in for another year, and making him a more valuable trade asset (if we don’t offer him an extension). That means another year of Amare, and more time to decide what to do with the guy.
Plus, there’s not a snowball’s chance in hell he opts in.
Bright Side of the Sun, where Suns basketball never looked so good.
by Trevor Paxton on Feb 7, 2010 8:36 PM MST up reply actions
"Cap space wins Championships"
I tend to think there’s a reason why we’ve never heard this phrase.
Granted their are exceptions, but most often cap space is only potential and that kind of potential doesn’t appeal to me, especially when it involves bidding wars with other desperate and stupid professional basketball operations that also have cap space, and more of it.
Where are all those Golden State Warriors trolls now?
And what...
We have a chance to win one any time soon? And with which of the proposed trades?
I say don’t panic: there will be a LOT of free agents this year, and a lot of broke teams. Stay patient, and we might get a Pau Gasol deal.
I actually don't want Amar'e to leave.
To be honest, I actually hope he doesn’t leave since he and Steve Nash are probably the most deadly pick and roll combination ever since John Stockton and Karl Malone.
Robin and Dragic can play the pick and roll too
They have been doing a good job with that lately.
But I seriously think we need to have explore more offensive sets than just our pick and roll. Please check out the Boston games. Doc Rivers have so many offensive plays in his playbook.
Defenders are staying with Nash these days and they want him to shoot the ball, rather than orchestrate the offense with an assist…
Apples and Oranges
Boston is a much different team than the Suns, but I understand what you’re saying.
And lately, we’ve seen a lot of ball movement, taking pressure off Nash. So maybe there’s your offensive sets exploration?
Bright Side of the Sun, where Suns basketball never looked so good.
by Trevor Paxton on Feb 7, 2010 8:42 PM MST up reply actions
The Pick and Roll is the hardest play to guard and one of the easiest to execute. It’s not going anywhere anytime soon.
Yet another Suns blog: http://phxsunsnews.com
but if you can get cap space and a good, cheap young player, isn’t that better than just cap space? for example if you KNEW amare was going to opt out and you KNEW you wouldnt be able to resign him, wouldn’t a trade for jermaine Oneal’s expiring contract and beasley be better than just cap space? i’m not a big beasley fan, but i have to think that you wont be able to find anyone with as much potential as him on the free agent market for as much as beasley makes.
Banzai!
heat wud not
trade beastly and o’neal for amare he isn’t that gud
by HawaiiEaglesFanatic on Feb 6, 2010 3:59 PM MST up reply actions
I just don't like the idea
of Amare sort of not making any commitment. Sure he has all the right to do it, others have done the same. I guess I am hoping that once in awhile it would be nice to see some loyalty in a player, and this I while wait a long time.
Amare can not get upset with the trade talk, he has put the Suns in this position. He has made a ton of money in Phoenix, so this nonsense he can’t concentrate is BS in my book.
I think the Suns will move him.
- 1: It's nonsense to saytrade talks won't affect a player's performance as reports show
Even Dudley has commented it. Even Coach Gentry has noticed it:
“he road has become Amare Stoudemire’s sanctuary, his place to clear his mind and get away from all the swirling trade rumors and speculation.
He’s free to simply focus on what he does best: Turning in big games.
Stoudemire had 20 points and 17 rebounds, leading the Phoenix Suns to a 109-97 victory Wednesday night over a Denver squad missing Carmelo Anthony(notes).
"It’s definitely great to be on the road and get away from all the trade talk for a while," said Stoudemire, averaging 27 points and 13.3 rebounds over his last three road games.
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Phoenix Suns forward Amar’e Stoudemire(notes), left, works the ball inside against Denver Nuggets guard Arron Afflalo(notes) in the third quarter of the Suns’ 109-97 victory in an NBA game in Denver on Wednesday, Feb. 3, 2010.
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* 1 of 12
* Pho-Den Gallery
In recently weeks, Stoudemire has heard his name pop up in one trade rumor after another. Suns coach Alvin Gentry even had a discussion with his big man about all the speculation, simply reminding Stoudemire the situation is completely out of his control.
"I told him he’s got to try to put it behind him and move on because whatever happens is going to happen," Gentry said. "It always happens this time of year, there’s someone that’s always the talk—it just happens to be him this year.""
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/recap?gid=2010020307&prov=ap
The cheek of those who imply Amare don’t show loyalty.
By trading to trade Amare mid-season, it is clear that the Suns don’t mind the risk that they’ll miss the play-offs even without a pick this season. Why play hard for dumbos that think that way and support trading Amare.
Those dumbos include the Suns management who have shopped Amare publicly like damaged goods for the past 2 seasons and Suns fans who have turned on Amare after a few bad games under trying circumstances
For those people who claimed Amare still wants a max-5-year 100 million contract THIS season while recovering for an injury, kindly produce proof.
People on other forums have already picked up that Amare only wants a 3-year Gasol second fiddle deal, which was reported on Yahoo! Sports in December.
I also remember that the article mentioned that Amare’s agent managed to talk sense to him that he is recovering from a serious eye injury and he can’t ask for that much…
Super stars win championships, it’s how the NBA works, Kobe didn’t win without shaq until he got gasol, Wade won one with shaq and then they have stunk since.
Look at your future roster and decide if you have TWO super stars (and keep in mind that steve nash won’t live forever) to be. If not you aren’t likely to win a title whomever you get (yes yes, I know the pistons won, but who else in the modern post 80s era?)
It’s not about ‘cap space’ – it’s about wisely using cap space, trades, and draft picks to obtain those two superstars.
Or getting damn lucky in the NBA draft, having your best player blow out his knee, and then win the TIm Duncan lottery thus preventing the sixers from drafting him and putting duncan and iverson together for a decade and multiple championships (before you laugh – a true big man in the low post is what iverson has ALWAYS lacked)
by jemagee on Feb 3, 2010 3:08 PM MST reply actions
that wud have been scary
iverson and duncan
by HawaiiEaglesFanatic on Feb 6, 2010 4:00 PM MST up reply actions
Friendly question from a Celtics fan
I haven’t really been following Phoenix’s situation, but I know there is a lot of trade talk about Amare. My question is, Why? He seems to work so well with your up-tempo offense, and he did very good the both times y’all played us (you swept us, I know. No need to remind me).
Is it just because he’ll be a free agent and you don’t want to lose him for nothing? Or is there some kind of player rift between him and Nash, or the coach? Or does he simply just want out? Cuz frankly, I don’t get it. Especially considering how much better y’all are doing compared to last year.
Thanks for the info!
i think most of it is because amare reportedly wants 17-20 million a year, for probably 4-5 years. the front office doesn’t think he’s worth that much, especially when the salary cap will likely decrease for the next couple years. so, knowing that they won’t be able to keep him at what they believe to be a reasonable price, the front office has decided to try to trade him instead of receiving nothing but cap space when he returns. that’s what ive gathered at least…
Banzai!
3 yr- Gasol second fiddle pay is what he wants this year
Anyone who claims otherwise kindly produce proof that Amare wants a 5-yr max deal THIS YEAR.
so we agree that he wants between 17-20 million annually. i have never heard anywhere specifically that he wants a 3, 4, or 5 year contract. however, he has grouped himseld, with wade, lebron and bosh this summer, who will most likely be looking for 4-5 year contracts. im not saying that he wont settle for a 3-year contract, but assuredly, he is going to start out by asking for 4-5 years. im sure gasol did the same thing.
Banzai!
by Suns' Sensei on Feb 5, 2010 12:50 PM MST up reply actions
It was reported min Yahoo Japan he wants a 3-year Gasol package in early Dec
when the article reported that his agent is going to meet Keer to discuss an extension.
I’m not the only one who picked this up. Other news sites, blogs and forums did that as well and I have quoted from them before.
Sorry, I really would have thought that you all have read it yourself.
sorry
i must have missed that article. if you have the link, would you mind posting it for me one more time? i can’t find it anywhere. if we were able to sign him to a three year extension, i think that would be great. i still don’t think he’s worth $17 mil annually, but 3 years is definitely better than 4 or 5.
Banzai!
by Suns' Sensei on Feb 6, 2010 12:18 AM MST up reply actions
I'm trying to find the exact Yahoo Sports article but here's what I can find so far
"Stoudemire, 27, has expressed a belief that he is a maximum-contract player. He likely is expecting the Suns to make an offer that would not approach the three-year, $57 million extension that Lakers forward-center Pau Gasol, 29, recently signed."
Ok, so I know this probably isn’t going to be a popular opinion, and a little uncharacteristic of me as well. Most of us agree that although Amare is (usually) a MAX contract caliber player on offense, he has a ways to go before he can be considered one on defense or in regards to rebounding.
However, the latest news is that Amare just wants the same contract that LA is paying Pau Gasol as their #2 guy…$18, $19, & $19 million over a three year extension, respectively.
Now I know that this isn’t very far off from that MAX contract he’s been so adamant about receiving, but it does raise a point. How many of us would actually take Gasol over Amare?….Honestly.
http://www.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=27&t=981506&start=480
Even if we overpay him, 3-years is a much better deal for us than 5 years, as he won’t drag down the team as Jermaine ’O Neal did if he breaks down.
And he would still be good for a trade at 29 years of age…
thanks for looking
if the suns can get amare on a 3-year contract, then I’m all for it. i still dont want to give him $18 mil year. personally, i wouldnt even pay pau that with the cap expected to shrink. its not that i dont think amare is good enough to command $18 mil. its just that with the uncertainty concerning the cap, i dont want the suns to be forced to trade draft picks or young players down the road to get under the cap.
Banzai!
Um...
There are at least 4 other teams that WILL sign Joe Johnson for more than 12 million, and there are at least 5 other teams that will pay Bosh WAY more than $15 million… + you’re taling about letting 3 players go and picking up 1, which leaves empty roster spots, and we’d go over the cap signing league minimum guys. That’s why letting Amare go for nothing SUCKS! We can’t buy anyone good with the leftover cap money, there’s just not enough…
By stating he wants to opt in, I fear he may force the management to trade him
I think that Amare’s play in the last 5 games may be more about shopping himself to other teams.
Seriously, why sign up with a team with such bad management and iffy fan support? From Marion to Mike D and to a lesser extent Shaq, all these abrupt exits, it is hard not to see a culture that’s rapidly decaying.
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