Suns prospective playoff opponents...Let's look at the Jazz!

Well folks, it’s time to start assessing our playoff possibilities. Currently we are seeded as the 5th seed in the West, but the season is far from over. With 20 games left in the ultra-competitive Western Conference the Suns may finish as high as 2nd or possibly even finish out the hunt altogether…

The Suns have played well over the last few weeks but they must maintain their pace because: 1) Any let-up may allow the teams beneath us (San Antonio, OKC, Portland, Houston, & New Orleans) to overtake or supplant us. 2) Allow us at a team to go into the playoffs playing at a high level and confidence. 3) Force opposing playoff teams to adjust their game plans to mitigate a hot team.

Supposing that the Suns finish strong and finish at a 51-31 (13-7 rest of the way) we would probably be looking at either the fourth or fifth seed. Looking at strength of schedule and a few other factors, my predicted order of finish may very well be: 1-LA, 2-Dallas, 3-Denver, 4-Phoenix, 5-OKC, 6-San Antonio, 7- Utah, and 8-Portland. There is a great deal of ambiguity for the 3-7 spots and I could be totally wrong.

However, if we use this scenario, the Suns likely opponent could range between Oklahoma City, San Antonio or Utah. For this post I will take Utah as a potential opponent…Maybe another BSOTS poster can handle the analysis of the other prospective playoff opponents. While, Utah is a well coached, highly disciplined, veteran and mentally tough team, I believe that the Suns as a whole have a more talented roster, a deeper bench, and in a playoff series, will come out on top. 

While Deron Williams gets a lot of press at point guard, I truly believe the Jazz’s front line is where the damage gets done. While not the most gifted athletically group, this physical combo wears opposing teams down with their physicality, double teams, and deft touch around the rim and away from it (Except for Kirilenko, that is…). Looking across the front line battle of these two teams, the emergence of Robin Lopez as a legitimate interior presence means that Utah cannot simply double down on Amare with Boozer, Okur, and/or Kirilenko. Someone must account for Lopez on the opposite. Either they switch, show double or play man-to-man. In either case, I think the Suns benefit from this arrangement. When Frye is inserted into the game, his 3-point threat will potentially draw Okur away from the post and also open things up for STAT.

I also think Robin’s defensive presence will slow Boozer’s & Milsap’s inside game down a little….Utah relies heavily on feeds from DWill into the post, via either interior pass or the pick and roll. Having a decent post defender that can alter or block a few of Boozer’s & Millsap’s shots will free things up on the weak side help for STAT, Grant Hill & JRich to play help defense and take a few offensive rebounds away from the Jazz (which is where they kill a lot of teams..). It will also allow STAT to play the less physical Okur and pick up less fouls in the process. The front line variable that could alter the way the series goes is Andrei Kirilenko. When focused and on his game, Kirilenko is a defensive and shot blocking menace with the ability to put up 15-18 ppg during the course of a series; when off of it, he is puts up bad shots, gets in the way offensively and gets lost in the flow if the game.

In the backcourt; Utah’s inexplicable discarding of Ronnie Brewer will haunt them. Ronnie was the type of athletic wing player that gave the Suns fits…both on offense and defense. His replacement Wes Matthews and his backups Kyle Korver & C.J Miles are not the explosive, impact type of player that Brewer was. While Matthews has had some success against the Suns, expect the Suns defense to figure him out fairly quick. As a defender, He cannot guard a focused and on track Jason Richardson. The point guard matchup of Deron Williams and Steve Nash will be a great one, but fairly even.  I don’t think neither can stop the other, so it’s really on the supporting cast. In this case, I think Phoenix’s is slightly better especially in the case of bench production and capabilities…Phoenix in six games (4-2).  Tell me what you think!