What do the Suns have in Robin Lopez?
by jburning on Mar 3, 2010 1:56 PM MST
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When Robin Lopez was taken with the fifteenth pick of the 2008 draft, many Suns fans felt disappointed. The "why" is two-fold: (1) Fans were still upset that the Atlanta Hawks won the ping-pong lottery in 2007 -- landing the third pick with a pick that was top-3 protected and traded to Phoenix as part of the Joe Johnson deal -- ripping away from the Suns what should have been a sweet lottery player. Phoenix was instead left with the Hawks' unprotected 2008 pick, which ended up being just outside the lottery. (2) Robin was the lesser-heralded of the two Stanford brothers, with his more offensively-polished sibling, Brook, going to the New Jersey Nets with the tenth pick.
Robin's extremely uneventful first season did nothing to calm fears that the Suns' front office had wasted their pick, particularly since a handful of players drafted later than Lopez had much more productive rookie seasons: Mareese Speights (16th), Courtney Lee (22nd), Nicholas Batum (25th), and George Hill (26th) to name a few. Additionally, Brook Lopez had an extremely impressive first year, averaging 13 points, 8 rebounds, and nearly 2 blocks a game. Robin barely saw the court and when he did, he appeared awkward, uncoordinated, and extremely foul-prone. He was essentially a total non-factor during the 2008-2009 season. As unfair as it may be, NBA rookies these days are generally expected to impact the game immediately or they're declared a bust, particularly if they're taken in the lottery or just outside of it, and it began to look like the Suns had a bust on their hands.
When the Suns shipped Shaq away in the offseason, the door was wide open for the wild-haired center to step up and have a break-out sophomore season. No one was hoping for this more than the Suns, who had only newly-signed free agent Channing Frye to anchor the middle going forward. Lopez showed some flashes of skill in the 2009-2010 preseason, but broke a bone in his left foot and missed the first weeks of the regular season and delayed any hope that he could effectively contribute to the season. Soon after coming back from injury, however, he was inserted into the starting line-up as opposing teams began to figure out Frye and limit his effectiveness as a perimeter center.
Since moving into the starting lineup in January, Lopez has been a completely different player than the one seen during his rookie campaign. As a starter, he's averaged 12.4 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks a game in 25.7 minutes, in addition to limiting his fouls to only 2.5 a game. He's had monster defensive explosions, recording six games with 3+ blocks, including 5- and 6-block efforts. He's recorded three double-doubles, topped off by his recent monster 30-point, 12-rebound performance against the Clippers. During this time, he's shown that not only can he be the shot-altering/blocking, lane-patrolling, pick-and-roll-defending center he was drafted to be, but he can score. And not just garbage buckets. He's got dunks, hook shots, scoop shots, lay-ins ... even jumpers. His individual rebounding can be improved, but there's no doubt that he's helped the Suns' team rebounding by blocking out opposing would-be rebounders so that others like Hill, Stoudemire, and Richardson can gather the caroms.
Given how baffling Lopez's improvement has been this season since becoming a starter, we're left to wonder how high can Lopez fly, so to speak. Where is his ceiling? There were a few draft experts out there -- seemingly insane at the time -- who projected Robin could ultimately be a better NBA player than his brother Brook. It doesn't seem quite so outlandish anymore. Who's drinking the Lopez Kool-Aid? Who still thinks he's got some provin' to do? Are expectations too high? Too low?
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Personally, I think it depends on what the team decides to do with Amare Stoudemire. If they get rid of him and decide they liked what they saw from Robin, then he COULD be part of the team’s “big three” and regularly contribute 15-20 points and 8-10 rebounds, in addition to 2 blocks or so.
If the Suns pick up someone else to replace Amare on offense, then Robin’s line may be more like 10-12 points, 8 rebounds, and a couple blocks.
He's suitable..I just want thim to get totally in shape and start being more consistent
Eventually I think he will be a 12-13 ppg, 8 rebound, 2 blocks a game center which is more than serviceable in todays NBA…
"I especially liked the part where I dunked on the McDonalds All-American dude..."
Anonymous high-school player after a Virginia basketball state championship game...
One more thing, Robin is going to have to bulk up just a little as his upprer body strength is smiply not quite there...
"I especially liked the part where I dunked on the McDonalds All-American dude..."
Anonymous high-school player after a Virginia basketball state championship game...
I think
That we have a pretty bright future, Amare or no Amare the only problem is the PF position
C – Robin Lopez
PF – ? Stoudemire, Frye, Clark?
SF – Jared Dudley
SG – Leandro Barbosa
PG – Goran Dragic
"What I've achieved now is something that I always figured I would as a kid. I've had that type of determination since I was a youngster playing around the playgrounds, getting dirty after school." - Amare Stoudemire
That looks decent
but I don’t really ever see Dudley being an everyday starter…he is your number six or seven guy who comes off the bench with his energy, defends, and hits open threes…We could maybe start Dudley if Amare stays but if he leaves which I’m just assuming he will we will either have to replace him with a top-notch PF or swift gears and make our SF be our vocal point of the offense.
"I don't care what people think, people are stupid."-Charles Barkley
Our main problem going forward
Is that we don’t have a guy who is a threat to go off for 40 points on a nightly basis. Maybe Lopez is that guy, but I see him more as being, at best, the second offensive option, who consistently gets 15-20 points.
100% agree
Lopez, Dragic, Dudley (unless he goes to LA for the weather and Hollywood scene) and Clark – yes, Clark! – will be great rotation players for a winning team in the future. But we would need another Nash and Stoudemire (or 2 like players in terms of talent) to go all the way.
Yep
As the saying goes, you need a “big three” to win a championship. I can definitely see Lopez being the second or third guy in that trinity, but we definitely need a no. 1 guy. It remains to be seen if Dragic or Clark can develop into the third guy. I’m inclined to say Clark has a better shot than Dragic, but he needs to show a hell of a lot more next season than he has this season.
I think Kerr and Gentry will establish a "year one sucks, year two rocks" record with their young players
Clark will be more than fine.
I like this new guess the ceiling of yound suns players game we've started playing
someone should do a taylor griffin one next. the options could be:
a) future d-leaguer
b) future drive-thru attendant
c) taylor who?
Haha
The main reason I wanted to do one for Robin is I actually, based on what I’ve seen, that he has a bigger chance of being a real impact player than Dragic does.
Robin has a TON of upside
He could easily be one of the top three centers in the West within 3 to 5 years
Blogging Suns Basketball . twitter: @sethpo
so I actually think Robin's upside is higher than Goran's
assuming health of course which is always more of a worry with bigs…
My only concern with Robin is that he will continue to try and improve over the summer, etc. I did have that doubt after seeing him in Vegas for Summer League but he’s obviously been putting in the time even if he did sandbag a couple of games up there.
Robin’s skill set if far more unique than Goran’s which makes him far more valuable to the team
Blogging Suns Basketball . twitter: @sethpo
I mean in comparison to Dragic
I think Lopez has more of a chance to really impact the team, positively or negatively, depending on how he develops.
A thing to keep in mind with the poll:
It mainly focuses on his offense, because that’s the most surprising area. I sort of took it as a given that he’ll be a good defender and shot-blocker.
I wonder why someone voted for the last choice
Would the people who voted for Robin Lopez being both a superstar and the leader of the offense and defense in the future (the last choice) like to elaborate on their vote? This would arguably give Lopez greater stature than Steve Nash has had, because Nash leads the offense but I don’t see how the defense focuses around him (how can it focus on a player whose defense consists of taking charges?). In that case, this choice would seem rather a stretch.
I didn't vote for the last option, but I did vote for the second-to-last
I think if the Suns choose to make Robin one of the top offensive options on the team, he’ll be able to fulfill that role. I don’t personally see him being a leader, though. Maybe that’ll develop, though. Leadership is what separates stars from superstars in this league, I think.
It's very hard to tell...
I doubt Robin could develop post-skills as advanced as his brothers. His ceiling is very high and his bottom is pretty much where he is now….I see him being a Brendan Haywood/Dalembert type center…More of a defensive stopper,upper echelon blocker, guard’s the other teams best big and gets a lot of putbacks/dunks. I don’t really see him being a guy you draw up abunch of plays for…He’ll get his points off of put backs, alley oops and pure hustle. I see him as a 10-12 PPG guy with 10+ rebounds a night…having some nights where gets his 20 points a night…He doesn’t have much range and seems kind of awkward when trying to do so. Without a doubt he is our center of the future and will be a top-10 guy at his position. If his rebounding continues to improve he could be a little less athletic Marcus Camby.
"I don't care what people think, people are stupid."-Charles Barkley
i think he will be a 15ppg scorer...
he has shown flashes of putting some moves together and if he can develop a 8-10ft range game he could get in the high teens…. all about the time he puts in really
The way I see it
Robin’s averaging 12.4 points in about 10 fewer minutes than the average starter, and doing it mostly off of put-backs and the occasional pick-and-roll. If the team ever decides to call plays for him consistently, and he plays 35 minutes a game, the guy could easily average in the high teens to lower 20s.
i'm not saying he couldn't do what you are saying but usually it is harder to produce at the same level given twice the minutes...
there typically are diminishing returns to some degree….
jburning, where did you find his stats as a starter? I was looking for it yesterday and couldn’t find anywhere that broke it down that way…
most sites
have it on the ‘splits’ page for a player when you’re looking at his stats.
hoopsstats.com is really a cool site. More than you ever thought you could know about teams and players.
low post
Robin’s hook shot from either hand is a big plus. he’s 90% there on it. Another year it will be automatic from any low post position. Add in the offensive rebound putbacks he already has, and he’s 15 points a game easy.
But any offense is gravy to his potentially game-changing defense and shotblocking.
Thing I find interesting:
The first option in the poll has zero votes. This time last year, that option would have gotten the majority of the votes.
yes a lot has to do with the timing... ask again if he has a stretch of 5-6 bad games...
everyone will call him a bum and demand he is traded
All fans for every team are fickle...
…but we might be on to something with Robin. Think about other centers around the league… we could have had a Darko Milicic.
by ArizonaBornandBred on Mar 4, 2010 1:45 AM MST up reply actions
I don't think its a wall
It’s more that he’s young and inconsistent. He doesn’t yet know how to take what the defense gives him on offense, or how to morph his defense to the opposing matchup. So his games are either really good (all according to his pregame expectations) or really bad/invisible.
He’ll be much more consistent in future years.
one... he's not a rookie.... so rookie wall is a year past for him...
two… he is “disappearing” because he is still a role player… he gets in position well but doesn’t always come down with the boards and gets alot of his offense off garbage buckets and assists….
those aren’t insults…. it is just his role on the team and why it may seem like he is ‘disappearing’ all of a sudden
Yes, hence quotes around "rookie"
This is basically his true rookie season, because he barely played last year. And I was mostly being facetious in posting that he’s running into the wall. I realize that at this point in his career, especially with Amare still around, he’s going to have to be opportunistic.
Something that kind of bothers me
Is that Gentry seems to go “Ok Lopez isn’t immediately on his game today, so I’m pulling him,” so sometimes he’ll get 37 minutes and other times he’ll get 18 minutes. But on the other hand, I do support Gentry’s “ride the hot hand” philosophy during this winning stretch. I guess I can’t have it both ways.
I just have a soft spot for effective centers, and want to see Lopez really succeed.
the craziest thing about Frye
is his +/- for the year. Just nuts. The guy, for the year, is a +9. better than Nash. And that’s with Frye playing as much time with the bench as the starters, since January.
So I can see why Gentry has a hard time pulling him out. He must really screw up the opposing defense and rotation. I dunno.
I think that's why he put "rokkie" in quotes
Robin hardly played in year 1, so there was no chance for a rookie wall.
“gets a lot of his offense off garbage buckets and assists” – you just described 95% of the NBA player pool. I’d rather this description next to every guy on our roster not named Nash
Good point
JRich, Dragic, and Grant Hill are about the only guys that truly can create their own shot.
Should we thank Shaq?
If Robin goes on to become a quality center for a (gulp!) contender in the years to come, does the Shaq trade fiasco suddenly become worth it? Does he mature without Shaq’s unique style of mentoring?
Mmmmm ... Guinness
well credit Shaq
for letting Robin know its okay to make big blocks and statement fouls. Shaq would always yell at Robin to hit ’em harder than they were hitting him. And I think it worked. Cultivated his nasty streak.
I think it also hurt his development.
If you watched Robin and Brook at Stanford, that nasty streak was already in evidence. I think Robin felt too much pressure to make “statements” and that led some of his foul problems. Cartwright and Collins have probably been more appropriate mellowing influences. Or not.
Twitter: @MikeLisboa
Hollinger Recants on Ro-Lo:
From an article today about the NBA’s All-Improvement team (Insider):
Normally when we think of improvement, we picture a player putting in extra work over the summer and coming back with an improved jump shot, a new move or the proverbial 15 pounds of muscle. The league even gives out a trophy, the Most Improved Player Award, to commemorate the league’s greatest season-over-season improvement.
That’s one type of improvement, but it’s not the only kind. There’s another way to get better, and it’s perhaps more difficult — via slow, inexorable progress over the course of the regular season. Some players have managed it, however, and are visibly better than they were five months ago.
Take Suns sophomore Robin Lopez, for instance. For half the season he was a bust, a plodder who seemed lost in Phoenix’s helter-skelter system and generated unflattering comparisons with his more successful twin brother in New Jersey.
Then, magically, it all changed. The Suns inserted him as their starting center on Jan. 15, and he’s thrived, averaging nearly a point every two minutes while shooting a sizzling 61.7 percent from the On Friday against the Clippers he shocked the masses by erupting for 30 points and 12 rebounds; his team, meanwhile, has won 13 of its past 16 to stem a precipitous midseason slide.
Watching Lopez dive down the lane on pick-and-rolls with Steve Nash and aggressively finish at the rim, it’s hard to believe this is the same player who looked so mechanical and awkward in December (or his entire rookie season, for that matter). As a result, Lopez is the captain of the 2009-10 In-Season All-Improved Team.
nice but
I don’t see how you can ever call a rookie or even 2nd year player “most improved”
Milsap, fine. Brewer is a lock for MIP consideration.
But of course guys like Robin and Durant are going to get better. It’s more like this a list of guys Hollinger was wrong about.
How can you call Robin improved if he never had a chance to play consistently and given the chance is doing well. Same w/ Collison.
Blogging Suns Basketball . twitter: @sethpo
by Seth Pollack on Mar 4, 2010 12:47 PM MST up reply actions
I can't believe that Collison kid
This whole season, he’s been pretty explosive, but all his assists came with a lot of turnovers. In the past month or so, he’s really cut down his turnovers.
I like this quote from Robin:
In talking about his and Frye’s recent production:
"I don’t think either one of us is trying to do more than we are capable of doing," Lopez said. "We have to know our roles and understand where we are on the order of things as far as scoring and shots go. Amare is our top guy, we need to get him his shots. Then Steve is a great shooter, he needs to shoot. Jason is the third option. Grant Hill is a scorer. So I am not complaining about whether I am getting shots or not, but when the opportunities come up, I am trying to take advantage of them."
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