Phoenix vs Portland Series: Snapping to Judgment
by Seth Pollack on Apr 15, 2010 3:00 AM MST
in Phoenix Suns Commentary
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PrintIt's here, it's here! The playoffs are here!
Forget Christmas, Halloween or March Madness, THIS is my favorite time of the year!
Remember how much it sucked last season to spend the entire playoff season sitting on the sidelines watching like a starving dog eying a piece of meat? That blew.
And how about the year before getting bounced by Timmy's three and the subsequent melt-down? That blew even worse.
Like spring blossoms on the desert cacti, we can now wipe away those painful memories and hope that our team's new-found prickliness that bring a long and fruitful run.
So here's to sharp edges and tough hides masking sweet and tender interiors and here's to our dry, blazing heat showing those fellas from the gray and dreary Northwest just how hot our fire burns.
We will have plenty more to say about this match up in the coming days, but in the mean time here's my snap judgment on the series.
The Stats
The first thing that stands out about this series is just how different these two teams are statistically:
- The Suns are the 4th fastest team with a Pace Factor of 97.6 while the Blazers are the slowest at 89.9
- The Suns are actually the better pure defensive team, holding opponents to 45.3% shooting compared to 46.4% for Portland
- The Suns are by far the better offensive team shooting 49.2% compared to 46% and scoring a league-leading 112.2 points per 100 possessions compared to 7th ranked Portland at 108 per 100.
- Where Portland takes the huge lead is on the glass where they rank 3rd in Offensive Rebounding Rate Differential compared to 23rd for the Suns.
- Portland also does a much better job in turnover differential where they rank 6th in turnovers caused versus their own while the Suns are a miserable 29th.
So basically what you have is a Suns team that shoots the ball better, creates hard shots for their opponents and plays much faster versus a disciplined Portland team that values each possession more by creating turnovers, taking care of the ball, and controlling the glass.
The contrast is striking and in theory favors Portland in a playoff environment where things slow down, get more physical and each possession matters more.
It also means that each team has a clear path to victory in the series if they can continue to do well and limit their weaknesses.
For the Suns that means shooting well, defending well and staying close to even on the glass and limiting turnover to under 12 or 13.
For the Blazers that means dominating on the glass and turnover differential while holding the Suns to slightly under their normal shooting percentages and scoring at a slightly better rate by creating easy looks off those turnover and second chance opportunities.
Stats via Hoop Data do not include the two most recent games for either team.
Intangibles
The intangibles are strong for both teams as well, but also very different.
The Suns have incredible chemistry and as they demonstrated in two blowouts to close the season, they rise to the occasion with a combination of hungry young role players and even hungrier veterans.
The Blazers are one of the more mentally tough teams in the league as evidenced by their resilience throughout an injury-plagued season and reflecting the personality of their coach and star player.
The experience factor definitely goes to the Suns with the playoff tested core of Nash, Hill, Richardson and Stoudemire while the talent level is fairly even if Brandon Roy can contribute. That's a big if given his torn up knee.
Prediction
The Blazers are a tough team that won't fold under any circumstances. They have a lot of depth with Fernandez, Webster and Bayless on the wings who can pick up some of the scoring load from Roy if he's not able to play. Miller will be able to penetrate and force the Suns into a zone which will work at times but will also get torn apart if used too much.
The front line of Camby, Aldridge and Batum is extremely long and mobile and they will give the Suns fits on the glass and at times will render Amare ineffective - but only for short periods. Over the course of the series, Amare will need to continue to go right at Aldridge and Camby and wear them down which his incredible Bully Ball play in the paint. Especially Camby in isolation. Marcus will get some blocks and stops but Amare can tire him out and take advantage of his quickness.
While Nash won't be able to contain Miller on his own, the same is true the other way and while Miller can also create for others off his drives, no one is better than Nash. The Suns hold a big edge in three-point shooting and will win one or two games just by getting hot from behind the line. On the other hand, the Blazers will find ways to control the tempo and without Robin Lopez will also win a couple of games where the score is in the 90's (or 80's).
Suns fans that think this is going to be a cake walk are in for a rude awaking. This will be a bare knuckles brawl of a series but I think this Phoenix team is not only up for the challenge they are chomping at the bit for the bell to ring. Closing strong as they did in two must win games against top Western Conference foes proves that.
I may and probably will change my mind on this as we spend more time looking into the details of the match-up but right now I think the Suns take it in 7 if Brandon Roy is able to play at least at 80%. If not, then Suns in 6.
One thing I know for sure, it is going to be fun. There's nothing like playoff basketball to get the juices flowing. I can't wait.
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POST SEASON BABY WOOO!
$20 Chinese food!
Get Excited!
I think
we win in 5.
We are too motivated and playing at too high a level to let this team drag it out to 6 or even 7 games. We spent the last 2 nights blowing out two of the other 3 teams vying for the #2 seed by 20+ points. Did I mention that this was on back-to-back nights (well, I inferred it)? I think our will to win will help us get to the 2nd round without too much incident.
I’m not saying these won’t be tough games, because the Blazers are tough & physical in their own right; I just don’t see us letting them get more than a win. We shan’t lose at home and we’ll take one on their own turf.
Tigers love pepper; they hate cinnamon.
by Jareth Cutestory on Apr 15, 2010 5:27 AM MST reply actions 1 recs
german psychologist voice
ja, zis should be a verhy tough zeereez.
But, I fully believe we have the weapons to beat them to a pulp. seriously, we are peaking at exactly the right time, the Suns are playing their best ball, and Stoudamire and Nash are just frightening. I’m expecting 5 or maybe 6 games too. alridge has never been known as a soulless predator (unlike some dude named tim) so amar’e can limit him as he can match his speed and perimiter play. camby is a good player, I really liek him, but he’s not one to go into the block or bully around the basket too much, as he is fragile, maybe even frye can defend him. go SUNS!
(don’t you just see all the bedgers coming here in game threads as usual? I’m sick in advance of saying how good-natured and nice their team are.)
Libertarianism is just Anarchy for rich people
Portland will need luck to even take one game
They are not full strength. (Scary team when they are)
They have no bigs, no 7 foot shot blockers to clock the middle.
No one to stop Stat.
Frye has something personal to prove to them.
If the Suns keep that focus they have had recently they win in 4.
marcus camby is 5th the nba in blocks
They have no bigs, no 7 foot shot blockers to clock the middle.
Michael Jordan is the Nicolas Batum of America
by thomasikehara on Apr 15, 2010 7:41 AM MST up reply actions
true, true
but the thing with camby is: when has he carried a team deep in the playoffs?
same question for Andre Miller
Twitter: @dahking
Too late to change the stupid twitter name. Did it as a joke to my teenager, but now I'm hooked on the news-feed aspect of twitter.
Miller never
Phil Mickelson: "A Great shot is when you pull it off.....a smart shot is when you don't have the guts to try it"’
by 92wastheyear on Apr 15, 2010 7:50 AM MST up reply actions
Camby
98/99 lockout shortened season. Went with the Knicks to the finals
Phil Mickelson: "A Great shot is when you pull it off.....a smart shot is when you don't have the guts to try it"’
by 92wastheyear on Apr 15, 2010 7:54 AM MST up reply actions
did he carry them?
Twitter: @dahking
Too late to change the stupid twitter name. Did it as a joke to my teenager, but now I'm hooked on the news-feed aspect of twitter.
Three on one
“The front line of Camby, Aldridge and Batum is extremely long and mobile and they will give the Suns fits on the glass and at times will render Amare ineffective – but only for short periods. "
If you mean that it is 3 on 1, and Stat will be slowed by that, I guess I would agree.
But individually, Camby, Aldridge and Batum are simply NO match for Stat.
GO SUNS
OMG
i just can’t wait!! i think we will take it with 6 games, each team stealing one on the road. amare for the series MVP
Tough series
Blazers will not be a push over. I believe the Suns will win. The bench will have to be sharp, especially Dragic.
Good post
You are right we should not get ahead of ourselfs an think this will be walk in the park. They are a tought team and we can not understimate them.
That been said I could have not dream of a better seading than the one we got. As good as the Blazers are when healthy they are really hurting now with Roy (and all others) and whoever wins between Dallas and the Spurs is going to be tired from what should be a long and tough series.
I was more optimistic before reading your post and was thinking we could easily win it in 5 if not 4 but now I think they could lose also a couple of games if Portland stays focus and play their game. Stil I don’t see the Suns not wining the series.
the great thing is
that because the Blazers won 2 of 3 during the season, there’s no way the Suns can take them lightly.
Twitter: @dahking
Too late to change the stupid twitter name. Did it as a joke to my teenager, but now I'm hooked on the news-feed aspect of twitter.
The Suns are actually the better pure defensive team, holding opponents to 45.3% shooting compared to 46.4% for Portland
The blazers are still more efficient defensively, ranked 13, probably because of our defense rebounding; phoenix ranked 19. Of course on on offense you are #1 and we are #7. Edge: Phoenix for sure.
I liked our chances against you guys before brandon got injured, now between that and realized how much your defense has improved, i’m a little leary.
Just don’t count us out, we’ve enduring 69000000000 injuries this year, and every time i count this team out, they surprise me. I hope that this series is a good one; I’m so glad we are playing you guys because i won’t hate your team as much as the others after the series is over.
by appel82 on Apr 15, 2010 7:20 AM MST reply actions 1 recs
rebounding
And turnover differential are huge factors in defensive effeciency..
Look at last night. Suns blew the game opn when Suns got several blocks and steals in a row. Those lead to easy points. For Portland who likes to play slow, especially w Roy, those extra possessions mean more.
I am convinced turnovers will be the key stat in this series. Suns need to be a bit more patient on offense and mix things up. Don’t get too fancy.
Blogging Suns Basketball . twitter: @sethpo
by Seth Pollack on Apr 15, 2010 7:26 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
I must say that the Blazers and their fans are the best non-Suns around
I’m thrilled with this series because I respect the Blazers so much, and I know that the fans are great.
I do feel bad you’ve had SO many injuries, and I do believe the series will be over in less than 7 games because of it. Sorry in advance for that.
Twitter: @dahking
Too late to change the stupid twitter name. Did it as a joke to my teenager, but now I'm hooked on the news-feed aspect of twitter.
I believe in Amar'e
that “this is it” for him. he will carry this team on his back and take it to the next level. Amar’e has the eye of the tiger. I believe in him.
I am so friggin amazed at his transformation
wow, wow, wow.
“We have to know them better than we know ourselves.”
When has Amare ever said something like that, and made you believe he knew what he was talking about? I so love this team.
Twitter: @dahking
Too late to change the stupid twitter name. Did it as a joke to my teenager, but now I'm hooked on the news-feed aspect of twitter.
absolutely right.
Suddenly I feel like STAT became the bigger leader of this team than Nash.
Steve Nash. Where age-defying happens.
cringing...
but i feel ya man. i’m a Nash man first and foremost, but STAT has been just willing this team to victory. well deserved M-V-P chants.
should be fun guys
It’s completely plausible that this Blazer team will surprise everyone including myself and push this series to 7. But at the same time, it’s plausible that the Blazers lose to a rolling hot Suns squad in 5 games. Who knows. Hoping for the best, expecting the worst. The motto of the 2009-2010 Portland season.
Lover of everything Batum.
#88
these comments right here show how classy the Blazer fans are
Twitter: @dahking
Too late to change the stupid twitter name. Did it as a joke to my teenager, but now I'm hooked on the news-feed aspect of twitter.
That looks like a terrible skin condition.
I hope when you lose you don’t all develop horrible skin conditions. That would be sad.
http://seasonsofdiscontent.com/
by Scott Howard on Apr 15, 2010 9:29 AM MST up reply actions
I like the Blazders, but...
I think, without Roy and with the way Phoenix is playing, Phoenix takes it in 5.
On a side note, I’m also impressed by the Blazers fans. I guess I’m too used to Spurs, Lakers and Mavericks fans who are… less classy. If their team can stay healthy next year, they’ll be tough.
I really have no idea what to expect.
Blazers have played well against the Suns this year, even winning one of the games without Roy. But the Suns are quite possibly the hottest team in the NBA right now. We were sure you guys would fold under the pressure of the last few weeks of the season given your schedule, and we’d overtake you. Ha! Right now, that looks a lot like believing that the Clippers had a shot at the playoffs this year.
Still each game will be a fight. We may lose in 5, but that doesn’t mean we wont make you guys sweat a little. Still, if we have to lose, I’d rather see the Suns in the next round than the Jazz. Still hoping we win though. After all, last year the Blazers were the hottest team coming into the Playoffs, and we lost in 6 to Houston. Everything changes when the teams are 0-0 again. Should be a lot of fun, and we’re looking forward to fighting you guys for a spot in the conference semis.
"[S]ince men enjoyed very great leisure, they used it to pursue many kinds of commodities unknown to their fathers, and that was that first yoke they placed upon themselves without thinking about it, and the first source of evils the prepared for their descendants. For, besides continuing thus to soften body and mind, as these commodities had lost almost all their pleasantness through habit, and as they had at the same time degenerated into true needs, being deprived of them became much more cruel than possessing them was sweet; and people were unhappy to lose them without being happy to have them." -Jean-Jacques Rousseau
that's right. let's grind out a hard-fought series.
(knocking on wood)
Steve Nash. Where age-defying happens.
We may lose in 5, but that doesn’t mean we wont make you guys sweat a little. Still, if we have to lose, I’d rather see the Suns in the next round than the Jazz.
Amen to both of these sentiments. If Roy were healthy, I think the series would be a tossup. As it stands, even though Webster/Bayless/Fernandez are theoretically capable of matching Roy’s numbers in a given game, we just won’t have enough consistent firepower to overcome the Suns. One turnover and one bad shot and all of a sudden J-Rich and Nash have drained threes and Amare has thrown down an alley-oop and you’re wondering how the hell you’re down by double digits.
I really like the Suns, though — my second-favorite team in the league. If the Blazers have to lose to anybody, I’d much prefer that it be Phoenix than Denver or Utah or Dallas. I’m expecting the Blazers to stretch it to six games, but a loss in five wouldn’t shock me.
Y’all should swing up to BE sometime! We had a really good time with some Dream Shakers last year. Mind your p’s and q’s and you’ll be perfectly welcome.
"One of the bright spots of the young season has been rookie point guard Jonny Flynn, whose name sounds like he should be the lead character in a Broadway Musical. "What are you doing here, Jonny Flynn?" "Why I'm here to court trouble, and woo a girl, and build the most fantastical contraption the world has ever seen!" -- Dave, Game 7 Blazers versus Timberwolves preview
"It was bad reffing...but not rip apart the fabric of time bad." -- The Arkitect, Game 79 Blazers versus Mavericks Post-Game Thread
by BlazersOrBust on Apr 15, 2010 8:15 AM MST up reply actions
I think the NBA owes at least one ring to Phoenix.
As far as the Blazers, they are the Cinderella of this series and you know who took the ring at the end of the story ;) It doesn´t hurt being naif for a week.
that will be fun
tough to swing back and forth between the blogs, but if there’s any team I’d do that for its the Blzers one.
FWIW: I really, really wish you guys were fully healthy. That’s a damn shame you won’t be, regardless of how Roy turns out.
Twitter: @dahking
Too late to change the stupid twitter name. Did it as a joke to my teenager, but now I'm hooked on the news-feed aspect of twitter.
Enough with the love-fest already
Lets smash those sad-sack losers from the Northwest. Anyone that lives in that much rain has to be moldy and smelly anyway. The Blazers are a team bought and paid for by a wealthy owner who spent his way out of the Jail Blazers era, they fired one of their main front office guys in a “drive by”, they are looking to fire their GM, their only playoff experience is a first round loss, their front line is either ancient or babies. Miller has bad hair. Aldridge is so soft he makes Channing look like Charles Oakley. How many guys has LMA swung on this year? Bayless is reckless. Rudy is feckless. Webster is a ghost. Batum talks funny. And Roy…Roy…well…he name doesn’t have enough letters.
Come on people! Lets get it on! Bring it! All this sweet sap is making my sick. Where’s the hate!
Blogging Suns Basketball . twitter: @sethpo
If you will recall
when the fine people of Gondor had to defend Helm’s Deep, their soldiers were also ancient or babies. So look out for precedent, lest you be trampled by a gigantic cavalry charge right as you’re about to win Game 6.
P.S. Being trampled by a cavalry charge is about the only way in which the Suns haven’t blown a playoff series this decade.
:)
"One of the bright spots of the young season has been rookie point guard Jonny Flynn, whose name sounds like he should be the lead character in a Broadway Musical. "What are you doing here, Jonny Flynn?" "Why I'm here to court trouble, and woo a girl, and build the most fantastical contraption the world has ever seen!" -- Dave, Game 7 Blazers versus Timberwolves preview
"It was bad reffing...but not rip apart the fabric of time bad." -- The Arkitect, Game 79 Blazers versus Mavericks Post-Game Thread
by BlazersOrBust on Apr 15, 2010 8:29 AM MST up reply actions
but did any of those acients and babies have hair as bad as Miller?
Twitter: @dahking
Too late to change the stupid twitter name. Did it as a joke to my teenager, but now I'm hooked on the news-feed aspect of twitter.
Minor correction:
I believe you have to have a lead in a series to “blow” it. The only series that we had a lead in and lost in the Nash era was when we went up 1-0 on Dallas. Other than that, we just got spanked.
Please do your part to end the tyranny of the word "hater"
HI-larious!
good one Seth.
Bring it on, boys and girls!
Twitter: @dahking
Too late to change the stupid twitter name. Did it as a joke to my teenager, but now I'm hooked on the news-feed aspect of twitter.
At least our star player doesn't have a random apostrophe in his name?
This is hard. If you were the Jazz or Lakers, it wouldn’t be this difficult.
"[S]ince men enjoyed very great leisure, they used it to pursue many kinds of commodities unknown to their fathers, and that was that first yoke they placed upon themselves without thinking about it, and the first source of evils the prepared for their descendants. For, besides continuing thus to soften body and mind, as these commodities had lost almost all their pleasantness through habit, and as they had at the same time degenerated into true needs, being deprived of them became much more cruel than possessing them was sweet; and people were unhappy to lose them without being happy to have them." -Jean-Jacques Rousseau
NOBODY insults random punctuation in Suns player names and get's away with it
This means war!
Stev’e Nash is going to be furious.
http://seasonsofdiscontent.com/
by Scott Howard on Apr 15, 2010 9:15 AM MST up reply actions
as will Gr'ant Hill
Twitter: @dahking
Too late to change the stupid twitter name. Did it as a joke to my teenager, but now I'm hooked on the news-feed aspect of twitter.
hey
it hasn’t rained here in like 12 hours
Michael Jordan is the Nicolas Batum of America
by thomasikehara on Apr 15, 2010 9:25 AM MST up reply actions
Selfish rain-stealing Blazers fans
We’d like some rain every once in a while but you jerk faces take MORE than your share. It’s insulting.
http://seasonsofdiscontent.com/
by Scott Howard on Apr 15, 2010 9:27 AM MST up reply actions
you guys have gravel lawns
so its not like you need the rain
Michael Jordan is the Nicolas Batum of America
by thomasikehara on Apr 15, 2010 9:35 AM MST up reply actions
Yeah
I hate when rain makes weeds grow in my gravel lawn. Spoils it’s beauty.
Please do your part to end the tyranny of the word "hater"
i'll reserve my hate...
for the lakers, spurs, mavs, magic, cavs & most esp. celtics of the world. not to these blazers :D
why does steve nash lick his hands then high five all his teammates?
is he trying to kill them?
Michael Jordan is the Nicolas Batum of America
by thomasikehara on Apr 15, 2010 9:40 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
don't wonder how strong Steve's stamina is?
I mean Steve’s always eating germs and all that but look like him, playing like 20 something.
Amar'e Stoudemire is your resident Bully Ball.
maybe we should all start
licking our hands and high-fiving people.
Twitter: @dahking
Too late to change the stupid twitter name. Did it as a joke to my teenager, but now I'm hooked on the news-feed aspect of twitter.
by Alex Laugan on Apr 15, 2010 11:01 AM MST up reply actions
I'm thrilled to be playing the Blazers
Remember the 2OT game against POR at the Madhouse when Majerle laughed at Ainge for putting his fingers in his ears? That was my first year of being a Suns fan. Makes me all gooey.
Please do your part to end the tyranny of the word "hater"
Other than that
Portland will go as far as the ghosts of Bonzi Wells and Ruben Patterson will allow.
Please do your part to end the tyranny of the word "hater"
Since those ghosts are mellowed out on the green stuff...
I don’t expect they’re up to putting up much resistance. Unless the Blazers are made out of Cheetos™.
"[S]ince men enjoyed very great leisure, they used it to pursue many kinds of commodities unknown to their fathers, and that was that first yoke they placed upon themselves without thinking about it, and the first source of evils the prepared for their descendants. For, besides continuing thus to soften body and mind, as these commodities had lost almost all their pleasantness through habit, and as they had at the same time degenerated into true needs, being deprived of them became much more cruel than possessing them was sweet; and people were unhappy to lose them without being happy to have them." -Jean-Jacques Rousseau
this game?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-c744B96L70&feature=player_embedded
Michael Jordan is the Nicolas Batum of America
by thomasikehara on Apr 15, 2010 9:38 AM MST up reply actions
That's the one
What was up with the white paint at the Rose Garden? That was almost as bad as the pink and turquoise Alamodome.
Please do your part to end the tyranny of the word "hater"
Love fest/Hate fest
Whatever.
Your team did great getting rid of Shaq’Fu. Did great things this season after barely missing the playoffs last year.
The Suns definately have something to prove.
We respect that.
We lost out to Houston last year, which is a shell of a team now.
We’ve got something to prove.
Plus, secretly. We admire Nash, we still love Frye. We are going to really enjoy this match-up. Even if the Blazers go down in the 1st round, its better than the lottery.
P.S. Our fans are louder than your fans at the stadium. Step it up or step out of the way.
BAAAAAATUUUMM SHHAAAKAAA-LAAAAKAAA!
yeah, your fans ARE louder during the regular season, that's for sure
We’ll see how it compares in the playoffs (though I still think Portland fans will win, despite my own personal best efforts)
Twitter: @dahking
Too late to change the stupid twitter name. Did it as a joke to my teenager, but now I'm hooked on the news-feed aspect of twitter.
by Alex Laugan on Apr 15, 2010 11:16 AM MST up reply actions
Hate the Blazers?
It is hard to hate…..but have gotten many laughs at the antics of Jailblazers players over the years………..I mean what was up with Andre the giant er, Arvydas Sabonis? That guy was a freak of nature…..
EAT IT BRANDON GLASS KNEES ROY!
They say "don't swim with the sharks", but I'm faster than sharks so it's not a big deal...
I hate the Blazers the most.....
They’re just so…..nice…..and neutral….they’re like the Switzerland of basketball…
And nobody likes Switzerland.
Crashing the [message] boards from the heart of Spurs Nation, San Antonio, Texas. GO SUNS!
haha speak for yourself... ;)
although I can’t stand Roger Federer
Twitter: @dahking
Too late to change the stupid twitter name. Did it as a joke to my teenager, but now I'm hooked on the news-feed aspect of twitter.
by Alex Laugan on Apr 15, 2010 11:48 AM MST up reply actions
Blazer fan here
I like the Suns and am happy Channing found a home, nice guy. W/O Brandon……pretty hard to win the series. I know we will play hard. Hopefully next year is a better year health wise. Tried to come up with something bad to say………but I guess I save that for the Lakers.
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