Phoenix Suns Rising: Perimeter Defense Needs An Upgrade
by Alex Laugan on Aug 16, 2010 11:21 AM MDT
in Phoenix Suns Commentary
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PrintToday, we bring you part 2 of a new series analyzing the stats from Phoenix Suns 2009-2010 season.
The last post highlighted the difference between being a good rebounding team vs. a good defensive team.
You can still be a good defensive team without getting all the rebounds. Milwaukee (3rd overall in defensive efficiency) and Boston (5th) grabbed fewer available total rebounds than the Suns (in terms of rebound-rate), yet finished higher in overall defensive efficiency.
In that last post, we talked about initial defense (preventing made baskets, via missed shot, free throws or turnovers) and second-chance defense (grabbing the defensive rebound on missed shots).
Last year, the Suns survived a horrible second-chance defense with a pedestrian initial-defense (15th overall) and great offense.
This upcoming season, the second-chance defense looks to be even worse. The Suns will need to offset that with better initial defense.
First area to improve: improving the perimeter defense at SG and SF, specifically the isolation play on the wing.
Let's look at the details, and discuss how they can be better next season.
First, the numbers.
I included the defensive statistics (via Synergy Sports) of the Suns' 3 main wing defenders who will return this upcoming season, and compare them to one of the best in game.
| Richardson | Dudley | Hill | ||||||||||||
| % | Total | PPP | Rank | % | Total | PPP | Rank | % | Total | PPP | Rank | |||
| Overall | 100% | 898 | 0.95 | 318 | 100% | 753 | 0.92 | 259 | 100% | 787 | 0.92 | 259 | ||
| Isolation | 22% | 1.04 | 309 | 28% | 0.84 | 152 | 25% | 0.83 | 138 | |||||
| P&R Ballhandler | 19% | 0.95 | 198 | 13% | 1.06 | 220 | 17% | 0.87 | 149 | |||||
| Spot-Up | 37% | 0.98 | 191 | 32% | 0.95 | 115 | 33% | 1.05 | 269 | |||||
| Off Screen | 8% | 0.69 | 18 | 10% | 0.97 | 134 | 8% | 0.97 | 134 | |||||
As you can see, all 3 guys on the Suns are pedestrian at defense compared to Ron Artest.
| Artest | ||||
| % | Total | PPP | Rank | |
| Overall | 100% | 1000 | 0.8 | 25 |
| Isolation | 19% | 0.66 | 19 | |
| P&R Ballhandler | 20% | 0.76 | 53 | |
| Spot-Up | 29% | 0.86 | 134 | |
| Off Screen | 18% | 0.88 | 73 | |
Duh, right? We knew that. But bear with me.
First, this helps us put "Grant is our stopper" into context. Relative to who else we had defending shooting guards and small forwards, Grant and Dudley really are the best we've got but they're not very good overall.
The difference in points per play (PPP) between Artest and the average Suns player is nearly .15. Looks small, but project this over the course of the game. If you add all of their defensive chances together and divide by 82, you get about 29 chances per game for the three of them. Multiply that by .15, and it comes out to almost 4 points per game.
The Suns wings are giving up about 4 more points per game than the best wing defenders in the NBA. Still, that doesn't sound like a lot, does it?
But 4 points IS a lot.
Last season, the Suns scored 110.2 while giving up 105.3. Wouldn't you rather have a margin of 6-8 points per game than 5?
Let's look at the numbers again. One of the numbers that really stands out is Jason Richardson's effectiveness at defending the isolation play and spot-up shooters vs. Grant and Duds. J-Rich is one of the worst in the league at this.
The addition of Childress (click on the fanshot detailing Chill's skills) should give the Suns another good wing defender, giving them a chance to hide JRich a little more than last season. J-Rich was our worst perimeter defender, yet spent the most doing it of all the guys. Childress is quick, 6'8", with a 6'11" wing span who can defend wings of all sizes.
Of course, it's difficult to hide J-Rich when we're already hiding Nash, which is likely why J-Rich got a lot of defensive assignments during his time on the court last season.
One solution to this is playing Childress/Dudley more often with Nash, and J-Rich more often with Dragic. This gives a little more offense to the second unit, and a little more defense to the first unit. Despite the starting lineup, don't be surprised to see these pairings more than last season.
But even if JRich and Nash still play a lot together, the Suns' second unit with Childress will be better than last season defensively. And when the Suns are getting rocked by a wing player, there's another go-to defender in Childress for the rotation.
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well, given the current roster
I’d have to say yes. But he’s a GOOD hope.
In the long run, if you want to improve defensively then the players must get better by themselves, or you need to give them fewer opportunities to do poorly.
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
by Alex Laugan on Aug 16, 2010 11:36 AM MDT up reply actions
right
we upgrade Barbosa’s defense with Childress. The Suns might also consider giving some of Hill’s minutes (he got 30 last year, but might get 25-27 this year at age 38?) to Childress as well.
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
by Alex Laugan on Aug 16, 2010 11:38 AM MDT up reply actions
speaking of Barbosa
Wouldn’t Barbosa do well on a team that uses lots of isolation plays?
by 8472species on Aug 16, 2010 11:59 AM MDT up reply actions
sure
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
by Alex Laugan on Aug 16, 2010 12:00 PM MDT up reply actions
I dunno
’Bosa got a lot of easy baskets off of baseline cuts where Nash found him with a perfect pass on the way to the rim. And he got a lot of points in transition either spotting up or on the handoff-screen.
A quick watch of the Brazilian national team shows that Leandro can handle being a #1 scoring option. I think a lot of that was screen-rolls, though, not iso’s.
Kind of emphasises how we overestimate Hill/dudley because they are the best we've got
i wonder what a good defender like ariza/pietrus/artest/iguodala would do for our overall defense.
well, Artest would admittedly be good
but I checked on Ariza, and he was not as effective last season as you might think. He ranked not much better than Dudley/Hill on points given up per play.
Iguodala was bad last season, but mostly because he gave up a crazy high percentage to spot-up shooters (similar to Josh Smith’s numbers I highlighted last week). Iggy was good on-ball, and probably spent a lot of time helping others (which would explain giving up spot-up shots to guys he left).
Pietrus was good (118th overall) on 600 chances.
Childress gives us the same things that Pietrus and Iggy provide. The challenge is getting him enough minutes in the current rotation.
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
by Alex Laugan on Aug 16, 2010 11:44 AM MDT up reply actions
Where's Nash's stats?
I wanted to see just how bad he really is by comparison…
Glad you decided to do this post.
I'll talk about PGs another time
this time was just about the wing defense.
Though I guess you could make the case that Nash played some wing defense, with Hill taking the opposing PG if he was a good one. But I didn’t see that as much last season (until the playoffs, with Miller), or any time since Marion left. I wonder if Childress is quick enough to take the opposing PG like Marion used to.
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
by Alex Laugan on Aug 16, 2010 11:52 AM MDT up reply actions
One solution to this is playing Childress/Dudley more often with Nash, and J-Rich more often with Dragic.
I like it. As groundbreaking as the first and second unit system was last season, there are many other ways to use the depth of this team to an advantage. I’m sure Coach Alvin has some really interesting lineups in mind.
"I make my case against a stack full of comics. Here comes the line.... I'm loaded with rocket fuel!!"
- Mike Watt, The Minutemen
I Like it too...
Our bench would be just THAT much scarier! Just goes to show how deep we really are, and the options we can use! …but damn, that would be one really expensive player coming off the bench! I’m not too sure JRich would be all too happy about that scenario either. I like it, but not if it causes potential chemistry issues.
Last year, when LB was struggling after a return from surgery, Gentry asked JRich if he
would come off the bench – JRich did, basically saying ‘Anything to help the team.’
Auntie Em: Hate you, hate Kansas, taking the dog.
Dorothy
Regarding Grant Hill,
While he may not be a statistically great defender, there are two instances last year when his true value as a defender showed.
1st round vs Portland: The Blazers stole game one because no one was able to keep Andre Miller and, to a lesser extent, Jerryd Bayless from driving inside. The series was quickly tipped back into the Suns’ favor when Grant started defending Miller, and stymied him like a wet blanket.
2nd round vs San Antonio: Grant’s main objective on defense was not to let Manu run free in the open court. He zeroed in on Manu and effectively eliminated any easy hoops for him, holding him to (off the top of my head) 41% shooting for the series.
Grant’s reputation as a defensive stopper wasn’t born from the fact that he was just the best of what we had; he earned it by making a huge impact in two separate playoff series.
"I make my case against a stack full of comics. Here comes the line.... I'm loaded with rocket fuel!!"
- Mike Watt, The Minutemen
that's true
he stemmed the bleeding.
I’m just saying that, over the course of the season, its relative when you use the term “stopper”
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
by Alex Laugan on Aug 16, 2010 12:01 PM MDT up reply actions
that's true
he stemmed the bleeding.
I’m just saying that, over the course of the season, its relative when you use the term “stopper”
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
by Alex Laugan on Aug 16, 2010 12:01 PM MDT up reply actions
Right and I agree.
I just wanted to pour cold water over the possible notion that Hill is overrated before it came to fruition. We all know how fast a notion becomes a foregone conclusion around here.
"I make my case against a stack full of comics. Here comes the line.... I'm loaded with rocket fuel!!"
- Mike Watt, The Minutemen
oh. yeah, that's true
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
by Alex Laugan on Aug 16, 2010 12:28 PM MDT up reply actions
By the way...
That caption above fit Channing’s expression perfectly. Plus uno for that.
"I make my case against a stack full of comics. Here comes the line.... I'm loaded with rocket fuel!!"
- Mike Watt, The Minutemen
I'm all for the start of J-Chill instead of J-Rich
This will be first in the Nash era, having 3 defensive players at his side(J-Chill, G-Hill and RoLo). Another question is who will start at the PF spot? Warrick or Hedo?
I'm not dumb. I just have a command of thoroughly useless information.
-Calvin and Hobbes
well actually we did have
Bell, Marion and Kurt Thomas in the lineup together in 2006 and 2007 (not a lot since Thomas only played about 50 games and 15 minutes per, but still…).
As far as who will start between Warrick and Hedo, it will almost certainly be Hedo since he makes the most money and is a long-time starter in the NBA.
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
by Alex Laugan on Aug 16, 2010 12:56 PM MDT up reply actions
I've thought about that too.
I’d be interested in Warrick playing primarily with Nash.
Warrick’s biggest talent is finishing on a play someone else set up for him, specifically being at the receiving end of a pick and roll. Childress is amazing at backdoor cuts, slashing to the basket, and receiving alley-oops. Nash could compliment both of these best.
Nash, Childress, Hill, Warrick, and Lopez.
This would be known as the “assault the rim until it bleeds” squad.
Plenty of precise high percentage offense here, while still being able to drop open threes from Nash, Childress and Hill, and play some excellent (for the Suns) defense.
Dragic, Richardson, Dudley, Hedo, and Frye.
This would be known as the “NBA Live ’10 – Set plays are for wimps” squad.
With this lineup there’s quality perimeter defense in Dragic and Dudley, and Dragic will get plenty of point-forward help from Hedo. I’d expect a lot of movement on this squad and a lot of open threes. The inside game will have to come from the guards (and Hedo) driving to the basket, but otherwise there’s a good balance of offense and defense. We won’t see any slow post-ups and back downs, but that’s boring anyway.
Now, I’m not saying that these should be our starting lineup and bench, I’m just pointing out that we can do some pretty serious mixing and matching and still come up with some pretty cool lineups.
I like both line-ups
I'm not dumb. I just have a command of thoroughly useless information.
-Calvin and Hobbes
I really like this
those are some nice lineups.
Of course, there’s no reason to introduce them that way (Hedo will likely start, at least at the beginning), but I do see these as potentially our best 2 lineups.
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
I really don't like that 1st squad.
You put Nash with 4 finishers, which seems fine, except that none of them are really shooters. That means that opposing defenses will simply collapse on the pick and rolls, and you’re left with Warrick and Hill taking 18-20 footers, or Childress hitting 36% from behind the arc. That’s not stellar. Then you’ve got the matter of Warrick trying to guard the opposing team’s starting PF, which is problematic, but Gentry can perhaps find a way to hide him.
The 2nd lineup is very good. In fact, it’s better than the 1st unit. I like the idea of starting Childress and having Richardson play starters minutes from the bench.
good point on the lack of high% 3-pt shooters out there
we’ll have to see what happens. Suns players’ 3-pt % usually goes up when they join the team, so maybe that will happen with Childress (though his form is poor).
It might be better to swap Duds with Hill in those lineups.
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
Grant shot 44% from three last year in the regular season.
But nose dived with Frye in the playoffs.
you and I both know
that Grant hates shooting the 3ptr. Kudos to the Suns and him for finding a way to contribute on that, but he has never looked comfortable shooting that shot.
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
mmmmost of the time
there are a lot of times he passes on it because he’s not ready. There’s a reason he played almost the same minutes as JRich, but took only a fraction of the 3 ptrs.
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
Here, try this rotation.
With this many players, I think you form more than 2 line-ups. Here’s a 24-minute rotation:
PG: Nash (11 min), Dragic (9 min), Nash (4 min)
SG: Childress (6 min), Richardson (12 min), Childress (2 min), Dragic (4 min)
SF: Hill (8 min), Dudley (12 min), Richardson (4 min)
PF: Turkoglu (6 min), Warrick (8 min), Turkoglu (10 min)
C: Lopez (6 min), Frye (8 min), Lopez (6 min), Frye (4 min)
If you use that rotation in each half, that gives you:
Nash: 30 min, Dragic 26 min
Richardson: 32 min, Childress: 16 min
Hill: 16 min, Dudley: 24 min
Turkoglue: 32 min, Warrick: 16 min
Lopez: 24 min, Frye: 24 min
…and requires 6 substitutions, which is certainly a small enough number to keep mental tabs on.
It doesn’t have the Planet Orange, Planet Purple split, but it keeps 3 shooters on the floor at all times, and it keeps 2 ballhandlers out there for all but 4 minutes. :-) And it gives you 5 shooters in the last 4 minutes of each half, when 3 point attempts are at their highest.
Setting up specific rotation times is problematic
unless you can tell the other team who to play when, too.
And expect players to perform identically night after night.
That's a matchup thing
But there’s nobody on our side of the ball that can defend the PF position anyway, and we look bound to play quite a bit of zone, so I’d say it doesn’t matter nearly as much. Not in the regular season at least.
hey thats a great idea
kudos to figuring it out. It will be interesting to see what actually happens during the season.
I don’t envision the Suns having only 2 lineups, or even 3 or 4. There will be probably 10+ they rotate through, depending on the situation. But I do think that there will be 2 “most often” ones (being 5 mins or so at a time), and those above look good. So do yours as well.
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
What about Hedo?
He has the ability to play either the SF or SG positions. In fact when he was with the Kings he would slide down quite often just like Hill and his defense while not quite Doug Christie level wasn’t as much of a drop off as you would expect. If Lawal or Warrick click as a PF then that would open everything up for some different lineups that might be able to exploit the other teams weaknesses while not truly creating more for us. In addition he is a much better three point shooter than Hill.
last year was a bad one for Hedo
defensively. Unfortunately, this advanced-stat site only has the 2009-2010 season on it, so Hedo looks really bad. We’ll have to wait to see how it really shakes out, though. He was a part of some very good defenses in Sac, SA and Orl (ie. he might not be great, but he doesn’t hurt a defense by himself).
I think the Suns will do a lot of zone and switching now, which would put Hedo on players of all sizes throughout the game.
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
Last Year...Lost Year
The main problem I saw with Hedo last year was his heart didn’t seem to be in it, but then again it was Toronto…..they don’t even have the weather going for them. I feel like this will be a year of redemption for him. Most players seem to play better in Phx….not sure if it’s the weather or the FANS.
I think it has more to do with the team chemistry
Everyone in the NBA last season saw that chemistry played a big part in pushing this team at the WCF.
I'm not dumb. I just have a command of thoroughly useless information.
-Calvin and Hobbes
Hedo's been practicing.
He should be good for the exam.
by waxmonkey on Aug 16, 2010 3:34 PM MDT up reply actions 7 recs
Love this!☺
I'm not dumb. I just have a command of thoroughly useless information.
-Calvin and Hobbes
That caption should read
“We need to play defense?”
by RedTurtle on Aug 17, 2010 12:43 AM MDT reply actions 1 recs
Offence, defence and chemistry
3 point blitzkrieg line up: Nash, Richardson, Dudley, Turkoglu, Frye and for those looking for some size, defence and rebounding Dragic, Childress, Hill, Clark, Lopez and waiting in the wings is a beast called Lawal. I’m confident and just can’t wait for the season to begin.
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