Phoenix Suns Are Better Since The Big Trade, The Numbers Don't Lie
by Alex Laugan on Feb 2, 2011 7:54 AM MST
in Phoenix Suns Commentary
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SB Nation AZ posted a story last week stating that the Suns are worse since the "big trade" with Orlando on December 18 that netted Marcin Gortat, Vince Carter and Mikael Pietrus to replace Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu and Earl Clark.
Seth directly compared the Suns' pre-trade record to their post-trade record, including some important stats. He concluded that the post-trade Suns were an inferior product. He intimated that the Suns would have been a better team this season had they not traded Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu away so quickly.
Here's what doesn't ring 100% true on that comparison: the pre-trade Suns had the benefit of a training camp AND 8 preseason games to get their act together, while the post-trade Suns had no safety net. So to be fair, it seems you must either include preseason data in the comparison, or give the post-trade Suns a pass on their first few games together.
Let's run those numbers again.
Here's the first bone of contention. Seth wrote:
While the records might be similar, let's not forget the incredibly difficult schedule the Suns had at the beginning of the season compared to the relatively light stretch since the deal. Five of the Suns' 10 losses during the Era of Vinsanity have come against teams with sub-.500 records. By contrast, only three out of the Suns' first 13 losses were to sub-par teams.
Overall, the Suns' record since the trade with Orlando is 10-11, compared to 12-13 pre-trade.
- Pre-trade, the Suns went 2-6 in their first 8 games together (preseason), then 6-7 over their first 13 regular-season games, then 6-6 in their final 12.
- Post-trade, the Suns went 2-6 in their first 8 games together (regular season), then 8-5 over their next 13 games to date.
Oh yeah, then there's the difference in schedule mentioned above.
- Pre-trade, the Suns had 4 quality wins in 25 games (at Utah and LA Lakers, home against Atlanta and Denver), 4-10 overall against teams currently over .500
- Post-trade, the Suns have 5 quality wins in 21 games (at OKC and New York, home against Portland, Boson and New Orleans). 5-5 overall against teams currently over .500
By this measure, it looks like the post-trade Suns are at least as well-equipped to beat tougher teams. Sure the pre-trade Suns had a more difficult schedule in terms of opponent winning percentage. They played 14 such games against team currently over .500 in 25 games, while the post-trade Suns have only played 10 toughies in 21 games.
Next bone of contention, or at least an update with more games played since the trade:
...the most important stat of all (outside win/loss) is point differential. Suns were -1.64 before Lon Babby pulled the trigger and -2.33 since.
Again, this is a puritan comparison of total regular-season games before and after the trade. I contend that you must consider the adjustment period inherent in any team. The pre-trade Suns had the benefit of training camp and preseason to put together a winning formula.
Let's re-compare the teams:
- Pre-trade, the Suns point differential in 25 total regular-season games was -1.64. In their first 13, it was -3.46.
- Post-trade, the Suns' point differential in 21 total games is now -1.46. In the last 13 games however (not including the 2-6 start that mirrored pre-trade's preseason), the Suns' point differential is still negative (-.23 points per game) but getting much closer to the median.
This last comparison factors in the quality of opponents much more than wins and losses, because you would expect the Suns to give up more points to better competition. So I wouldn't read too much into this one, but thought I'd throw it out there since I took the time to analyze it.
Summary
The post-trade team could totally tank, or they could ride a wave of goodness into the playoffs.
But you have to recognize that the post-trade Suns are on an upward trend. They are 8-4 in their last 12 games and their number of quality wins is higher since the trade than before it (including their last 4 consecutive games against winning teams).
Seth had a lot more numbers in his original post, most of which I didn't take the time to re-compare. But one other number I will throw out there is that, in the last 12 games since the embarassing Knicks loss at home, the Suns' are slightly outrebounding their opponents (43.1 to 43). This can be attributed to Gortat and, to a lesser extent, a healthier Lopez.
But all of this is just talk-fodder. Two or three more games could skew the numbers in a completely different direction.
A proper pre-trade/post-trade comparison can better be done after 4 more games (25 total since the trade). Or, you could even say that it can't properly be done until 33 games have passed (8 "preseason" games + 25 regular-season games). I'll keep you posted.
But at least the post-trade Suns are heading in the right direction.
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Nice.
Good stuff Alex.
"We never tried Amar'e, Nash, and a live Grizzly bear." -Scott Howard, January 18, 2010
The trade that brought Vince Carter, Mickael Pietrus and Marcin Gortat to Phoenix was made with one simple intention and that is to win and start the winning now. We all know that when a trade happens in the middle of the season it affects the chemistry of the team and all that good stuff but the guys that were brought in are likeable guys, so as the season progresses this team should start looking better and better.
My biggest concern on a possible Playoff run is how the Blazers and Grizzlies finish off their season. Portland just won a very tough game last night vs the Spurs and Memphis is currently on a three game winning streak, but going forward he control our destiny and the only way to avoid slipping any futher is by winning against those teams we’re supposed to beat like Philadelphia, Sacramento, Detroit, Charlotte… just to name a few.
Never second guess yourself.
The Suns control their destiny, at the moment
I’d start worrying about other teams when there’s less than 20 games left.
Bo Baggins!
The trade was made with one simple intention
Getting rid of Hedo’s horrible contract.
In return, VC is off the books next year and getting rid of Richardson for Gortat was a move for the future, not the present.
Mmmmm ... Guinness
+1
but that doesn’t mean I can’t root for them now
"It's nice to feel good at 32. I don't feel old. I don't feel like this is getting harder. I feel like this is getting easier, if anything." Steve Nash
I disagree. I think it had short term motives and long term motives
Getting Gortat= long and short term. he addressed our rebounding problem, and is a big with a bright future.
Getting VC, or his expiring= long term, and a band-aid for losing JRich
Getting Pietrus- a little bit of both. He could be a trade asset, or if he declines his option he could be relief. He didn’t fix the wing contract.
Getting rid of Hedo and his contract: long term and short term. He wasn’t fitting in, and the long term implications of his contract were something to be wary of.
Clark for a draft pick is just to make the deal work.
The Polish Hammer. Hammer polish. Unpolished post game. Unpublished Fan Posts about it. Post game threads. Puns puns puns. Nailed it! Polish Hammer
VC is a fine replacement for JRich
If you use http://nerdnumbers.com/automated-wins-produced that shows an advanced metric for a player’s value, you’ll see that JRich was at 0.185 WP48 (average is 0.100) and VC is at 0.135 – so both were positive, and not a massive difference.
But look at Gortat – he is 0.288 – which is in the all-star range, and close to his career average. He started out below 0.100 – or average – for his first few games, so that he is doing so well shows how much better he has got. He’s a beast!
or if he declines his option he could be relief.
Does anyone, for even a second, think he will? Maybe he will exercise it and organise a buyout – http://hoopshype.com/salaries/phoenix.htm he’s owed 5.3 mil, maybe a $2 mil buyout works for him, and he’ll get more cash supplementing it playing somewhere else (something like a 3 year, $10 mil deal works).
If he thinks he's not going to play, maybe
The Polish Hammer. Hammer polish. Unpolished post game. Unpublished Fan Posts about it. Post game threads. Puns puns puns. Nailed it! Polish Hammer
Overall, more long-term, though
Gortat is a long-term movet hat happens to be paying off now. I’m sure there was the hope of immediate dividends, but I don’t think the focus was this year’s playoff run.
VC and Hedo was long-term. In the short term, you keep JRich. However, this releases the Hedo albatross contract and Suns get VC’s partially-expiring contract (which they had with JRich, anyway). Now, they don’t have to re-sign JRick (imagine the outcry), have VC expire and rid themselves of Hedo. Trading the second-best player on the team to get rid of the worst player with a horrible contract can only be considered a long-term deal.
Pietrus? Part of the JRick band-aid? Maybe. But he’s also one of those “movable parts” that could be packaged in another deal.
Mmmmm ... Guinness
Stay gold, Ponyboy
Raising Arizona Sports at SB Nation Arizona twitter: @sethpo
by Seth Pollack on Feb 2, 2011 8:43 AM MST reply actions 3 recs
isn't it golden?
i was about to watch the outsiders on the netflix few weeks back, but decided to go on living my life instead.
Blogging Suns Basketball. Twitter: @willcantrellphx
by Wil Cantrell on Feb 2, 2011 10:26 AM MST up reply actions
Good post Alex
All though if I may be “that guy”, the Atlanta win was on the road.
I still miss JRich and wonder what could’ve been with Hedo, but the Hammer has been so damn hammerlicious.
I smell like the vault. I'm so PAID.
by RMason on Feb 2, 2011 8:50 AM MST via mobile reply actions
Interesting points
FWIW:
I think referencing the preseason record makes little sense. Yes it takes training camp and prep time for the season into consideration vs. meshing on the fly. In theory a team has a better chance to mesh if they have time to prepare. However, there is no guarantee of that. Further (and obviously) the starters don’t play a lot and there was plenty of Janning, Clark, Siler, etc all.
Another minor point, you mentioned the OKC games as post trade. It was, however, the new pieces had not arrived. Do we want to include that game in the analysis? In that vein, I don’t think we can use this argument to conclude that the Suns post trade are better equipped to beat better teams. If you would have asked me two weeks ago if I thought that was a valid thought, I would have laughed until the coffee spurted out of my nose.
But since the resurgence of Gortat, I am more apt to believe the Suns are a better team in general. And that has less to do with analyzing the numbers and more to do with the obvious improvement Gortat is making in all facets of his game.
Lastly, I don’t want to take anything away from the Suns victories over Boston and New Orleans, however both squads were playing second nights of back to backs, and both teams didn’t have full, healthy squads. In fact Okafor was eating the Suns alive before he got injured. May have been a different game if he was on the floor…Nevertheless, injuries happen, ejections happen, you have to play the game….I won’t asterisk these wins.
Blogging Suns Basketball. Twitter: @willcantrellphx
Another minor point, you mentioned the OKC games as post trade. It was, however, the new pieces had not arrived. Do we want to include that game in the analysis?
that absolutely gets included. The analysis of pre-trade and post-trade was Seth’s. If you exclude the OKC win, then you exclude any game till all 3 new guys suited up.
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
so
if you take out the OKC win, then you have to take out the next 3 losses as well. Suns are 9-8 overall since all 3 players made their debut in the same game.
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
I think referencing the preseason record makes little sense.
its simply a point of comparison. The pre-trade Suns were given more time to gel, and still didn’t get it done. That’s all I’m saying.
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
thats why i included the FWIW
Blogging Suns Basketball. Twitter: @willcantrellphx
by Wil Cantrell on Feb 2, 2011 10:25 AM MST up reply actions
Contradicting Overlord Seth deserves a rec, Alex.
But either way, it does look like we’re heading in the right direction. However, if we had lost to the Celtics and Hornets, we’d probably be saying otherwise…
The trade was for all intents and purposes to bring in that big man who could rebound and play defense, and find a sucker suitor who’d take Hedo Turkoglu’s unattractive contract off our hands. That big man’s here now and we’re in a much better position going forward, both salary-wise and player-wise.
In his first few games, Gortat wasn’t quite what I’d expected. He never dunked when he rolled to the basket, but he was a far better shooter than he was credited for in Orlando. His recent explosion of double-double dominating performances is starting to reassure all the fans, as well as the FO and team, that we made the right deal. Hedo may be balling in Orlando, but Gortat is hammering the opposition in Phoenix.
"Yes the game threads have more mood swings than a coked up pregnant woman but you have to admit, it’s always a fun ride." - NashMV3
"I know...The Suns are like a drunk bi-sexual girl. You just have no idea what she is going to do." - TheRza82
by NashMV3 on Feb 2, 2011 9:06 AM MST reply actions 1 recs
Hedo may be balling in Orlando
Hedo’s numbers, per 36 minutes, are the same between the Suns and Orlando with the exception of 3 more assists and 3 fewers points. He’s just being used a LOT more in Orlando. By the way, Orlando is 1-4 in their last 5 games against teams over .500. Just saying.
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
Not that it's necessarily meaningful since
Trades aren’t a zero sum game; they can help both teams or hurt both teams. But in perusing OPP, the tone seems to have swung there on whether they made a good deal or not. Just a couple weeks ago, there was a lot of crowing about how they got the best of us and how J-Rich is so much better than VC, Hedo is such a great fit on their team and Earl Clark is oozing potential! (where have I heard that before?)
Now, there seems to be the realization that Hedo is a nice but overpaid player who will become more overpaid as he ages, J-Rich has barely (if at all) played better than VC did for them, and Earl Clark is sitting at the end of their bench in the same way he was sitting at the end of our bench. Throw in the fact that Gortat is growing into a force, and it looks like we might have cashed in big-time on a Magic team that made a desperation move to try to keep up with the Heat and Celtics.
"Don't worry, I'm intact.
Whatever I say, Polish Hammer will back."
by East Bay Ray on Feb 2, 2011 10:53 AM MST up reply actions
I say its a bit of a win-win
We needed an inside presence on both ends and amazingly may have got that in Gortat. (Vince is too long of a conversation and Pietrus while still shooting the ball fairly badly, has provided some useful role type of mins.)
They needed a shot in the arm and needed to get rid of Vince (bad fit, injured and… well, Vince) and Gortat (not enough PT).
Even if they haven’t been superb the last 5 games against quality teams, we all need to remember how insanely bad they were coming into this trade.
So overall, I say win-win.
Only if Orlando makes a serious run in the playoffs this year.
It was a “now” move for them, loading up for a title run. If their team isn’t a serious contender now, it’s a lose for them because it seems clear they mortgaged their future. Magic fans are already bemoaning the decline in defense and frontcourt depth since the trade.
"Don't worry, I'm intact.
Whatever I say, Polish Hammer will back."
by East Bay Ray on Feb 2, 2011 11:54 AM MST up reply actions
true but...
they were just awful for the 2 weeks leading up to the trade. In other words, I think there was a bit of a shake up mentality there as well.
After last years playoffs, it felt to me that this unit was in a major funk, and needed a serious re-work and they couldn’t get that without giving something up. And they are better and a more focussed team then they were 6 weeks ago, so in that sense the deals have worked at least somewhat.
Of course, the other thing that happened at the same time was Rashard for Arenas. so the mortgaging for the future was not so much just in the suns trade as Jrich is not neccessarily a long term commitment. It was in a series of moves of which the Suns trade was just one.
I do catch your overall point that Orlando maybe pretty F’ed if this doesn’t lead to a major run in the playoffs. They are a bit like Cleveland who have made some very big financial commitments to be competetive, but who may shortly find themselves pretty compromised.
ya hedo is on my fantasy team
after that 17 assist game he has mostly been pretty bad. his defense is really bad too, ive watched prob 6-7 magic games since the trade, and its not the same hedo as he was last time in orlando
It was a good trade
for future seasons
benefitting this season (which it may or may not have done) is immaterial gravy
Mmmmm ... Guinness
Too early to tell
but if Gortat gets anywhere averaging 20 points and 10 rebounds.
It will look like a steal.
If he plays great D, it will be one of the Suns best trades since sending Marbary… to NY.
Little premature there
the guy has scored over 20 once in his career. yeah, it was last game, but that doesn’t mean he’s gonna average that.
Trade Warrick!!!
yes but he demonstrated that he is more than capable
considering that he did it in 23 minutes.
The Polish Hammer. Hammer polish. Unpolished post game. Unpublished Fan Posts about it. Post game threads. Puns puns puns. Nailed it! Polish Hammer
He's showing consistency
15 and 10 in less than 30 minutes is a very good thing. Plus, the defense is pretty good.
Reports are that the majority of the NBA scouts were very high on him. I don’t think so many professionals could be very far off. I don’t know that it’s a “steal” given the purpoted buzz on him, though.
Mmmmm ... Guinness
actually
I just checked again. He’s getting 2.5 more assists and 1.5 fewer points per 36 minutes with Orlando. Everything else is a wash.
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
talk about something that is next to impossible to compare
numbers wise at least, there are far too many variables if you ask me, to do an accurate comparison of pre-trade/post-trade. I’ll tell you this though, I “feel” better after the trade, all things considered.
I feel like there is a light ahead, so to speak, where as before I just felt like we were idle and not doing anything to get better.
Rec'd, Alex.
Overall, the trade probably was a move for the future, and our roster makeup still isn’t ideal now, but we should remember that the pre-trade team was a mess too. An “Earl Barron was called upon to start” mess. I remember commenting on the day of the trade, “what exactly are we hanging on to?” We were a slightly below .500 team, and gave up a contract we didn’t want, and two guys we were gonna let walk after the season. We’re at least comparably mediocre to the team we had pre-trade, and positioned ourselves better for the future with a solid frontcourt piece and extra cap space this offseason. What’s not to like?
"Don't worry, I'm intact.
Whatever I say, Polish Hammer will back."
Agreed.
I’m curious to see what will happen at the deadline, or at the end of the season with trades – if there’s a good move to make, will it mess with our chemistry and keep us out of the playoffs? Or would it make us stronger and allow us to go on a run? Are we going to stand pat, and wait for the new CBA (probably the smart move, but not necessarily). Are we going to be players in the free agency market? Will we re-sign Grant? Extend Steve?
I’m done rosterbating, but I think I’m going to flip my computer open one of these mornings and find out something big has happened. But the trade was a very solid move, Gortat is a keeper, and Gentry has done a good job making it work.
"The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty."
"In the long run the pessimist may be proved right, but the optimist has a better time on the trip."
IMHO The Suns are starting to figure it out
It may not translate to wins every time they step on to the court, but I can see them making a late push for the Playoffs. Whether they get there or not remains to be seen but as was already mentioned, they control their destiny.
by Nate_Sun86 on Feb 2, 2011 1:19 PM MST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
I like this... and I really want to believe it's true... I'm hoping Gortat's improvement continues...
that his career highs keep sliding up and as he draws more attention, the spacing keeps getting better and the 3’s start dropping and the D rotations solidify and the SUNS get revving again!!
by SteveNash, QuantumPhysicist on Feb 2, 2011 2:31 PM MST up reply actions
I think Gortat's hands have gotten better because he now uses his nostrils like jet intake valves to steer the ball into his hands!!
by SteveNash, QuantumPhysicist on Feb 2, 2011 2:33 PM MST up reply actions
oooh I thought his exhales were propelling him forward to get more air.
The Polish Hammer. Hammer polish. Unpolished post game. Unpublished Fan Posts about it. Post game threads. Puns puns puns. Nailed it! Polish Hammer
I'll say they're better when I see them fire on all cylinders for a game, and for the entire game.
when they put together a game where they:
Score 30 points in 3 quarters one being the fourth- and don’t score less than 20 in the other. that is to say they finish the game convincingly.
-holds the opponent to under 100.
-have a solid performance from the bench
-rebound
-light VC on fire
The Polish Hammer. Hammer polish. Unpolished post game. Unpublished Fan Posts about it. Post game threads. Puns puns puns. Nailed it! Polish Hammer
strike through not intended
The Polish Hammer. Hammer polish. Unpolished post game. Unpublished Fan Posts about it. Post game threads. Puns puns puns. Nailed it! Polish Hammer
Offense was of
The Polish Hammer. Hammer polish. Unpolished post game. Unpublished Fan Posts about it. Post game threads. Puns puns puns. Nailed it! Polish Hammer
and so were the celtics
The Polish Hammer. Hammer polish. Unpolished post game. Unpublished Fan Posts about it. Post game threads. Puns puns puns. Nailed it! Polish Hammer
Rec'd, Alex, for being all BrightSiderish (BrightSidertastic? BirightSideresque? BrightSiderlicious?)...
by SteveNash, QuantumPhysicist on Feb 2, 2011 2:35 PM MST reply actions
You can't include preseason in the analysis
They aren’t even TRYING to win those games. If anything, take out the first 8 games with the new roster. oh wait, that isn’t possible, since Vince didn’t play in most of those. I dunno.
Trade Warrick!!!
Alex, have you been taking lessons from Harrison?
Calling out the commish like that? yeah I said it, Mr. Goodell
Trade Warrick!!!
February Schedule
New dawn. New day. Looking at the schedules between Phoenix, Portland and Memphis, I have Phoenix pegged at going 9-3 in February, Memphis at 5-7 and Portland at 7-5. So, if that pans out, we put Memphis behind us and pick up 2 on Portland. That builds towards a little March madness of our own.
i love the attitude of this site. rec.
Headline: VINCE CANCER retired after hitting his 20,000th point..!
not to mention the positivity
Headline: VINCE CANCER retired after hitting his 20,000th point..!
by sun_equalizer on Feb 2, 2011 3:35 PM MST up reply actions
escape goat has a bad attitude though
The Polish Hammer. Hammer polish. Unpolished post game. Unpublished Fan Posts about it. Post game threads. Puns puns puns. Nailed it! Polish Hammer
He shouldn't even exist.
It’s all Beavis’ fault.
"Yes the game threads have more mood swings than a coked up pregnant woman but you have to admit, it’s always a fun ride." - NashMV3
"I know...The Suns are like a drunk bi-sexual girl. You just have no idea what she is going to do." - TheRza82
What did beavis do?
did he need someone to but heads with?
The Polish Hammer. Hammer polish. Unpolished post game. Unpublished Fan Posts about it. Post game threads. Puns puns puns. Nailed it! Polish Hammer
He used 'escape goat' instead of 'scapegoat.'
Make sure you use escape goat every chance you get. beavis deserves it.
Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!
And go Shawn Watson and Barney Cotton! Seriously, leave Lincoln. Now.
Super Bowl here we come!
for some reason I thought that was the honorable MR. Howard
The Polish Hammer. Hammer polish. Unpolished post game. Unpublished Fan Posts about it. Post game threads. Puns puns puns. Nailed it! Polish Hammer
off topic. Artest wanted to be traded
will you trade nash/hill for him?
for the fact that they can a have a shot to a ring?
Headline: VINCE CANCER retired after hitting his 20,000th point..!
Absolutely not.
We have to think about ourselves as fans and an organization too.
"If the Suns can shock the world
Goran Dragic is the name."
by Dragic_is_Magic on Feb 2, 2011 3:52 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
I wanted us to sign him last year as a FA
But now that there’s no run at a championship, no thanks.
Achievement is its own reward, pride obscures it.
by hcblankscreen on Feb 2, 2011 4:02 PM MST up reply actions
Optimism is a nice thing
It really makes life much more enjoyable.
So let me change that for you. “I wanted to sign him last year as a FA. But even though we still have a shot at a Championship, I’ll still pass”.
next 5 games. race to number 8
Memphis Portland Phoenix
at minesota at denver vs bucks
vs cleveland at indiana vs OKC
at houston at cleveland at Goldenstate
vs lakers vs chicago vs Goldenstate
at OKC at toronto at utah
Headline: VINCE CANCER retired after hitting his 20,000th point..!
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