Suns and Grizzlies upcoming schedules. Or: Pondering our road to the playoffs..

by joejoeb88 on Feb 28, 2011 3:32 AM MST

Phoenix Currently sits in the 10th spot. Utah is one spot ahead of us, but falling fast. The 1-7 teams are pretty much locks for the playoffs. That leaves us and the Grizzlies to battle for the 8th seed.

From that information, there's only two things for us Suns fans to do. 1- Root like hell for the Suns to win games. 2- Root like hell for the Grizzlies to LOSE.

Luckily, there's good reason to believe that second thing will happen.

Reason numero uno: Rudy Gay is out until at least March 18th with a shoulder injury. At that point, doctors will re-evaluate him and determine if he needs more time to rest. However, even if the docs give him the okay the team may decide to sit him for the remainder of the season if the Grizzlies have fallen out of the playoff race.

And reason numero dos: There's good reason to think the Grizzlies may very well fall out of the playoff race by March 18th. Check out this brutal schedule of theirs:

Month of March:

1st San Antonio

4th New Orleans

6th @Dallas

7th Oklahoma City

9th Knicks

12th @Miami

14th Pacers

17th Jazz

19th @Boston

21st @Chicago

23rd San Antonio

25th Golden State

This schedule is just brutal. The Suns March schedule is no cakewalk, but it's not as bad as this. However, this leads me back to what I said before: The Suns need to win games. Like, now. I know it's obvious, but it's especially important because if they can win enough now, the Grizzlies may just keep Rudy out altogether. We don't want this thing dragging on to the end of the season, and have the underdog, little train that could Grizzlies getting Rudy back and steamrolling into the playoffs.

And here's one final note.

Now, when it comes to schedule watching I've pulled out all the stops. This next tid-bit may upset some Suns fans, because I'll be telling you to root some old enemies. But I'm looking for any edge the Suns may have, so be upset if you wish.

Take a look at the Suns April schedule..

1st Clippers

3rd @ San Antonio

5th @ Chicago

6th @ Minnesota

8th @ New Orleans

10th @ Dallas

11th Minnesota

13th San Antonio

What we must do, as much as it hurts to say, is root for San Antonio to win every single game until April. If they have that 1st seed wrapped up, we may have two games against San Antonio's backups in April. Also, we should root for Dallas (2 seed) to keep a healthy distance from the Lakers (3 seed), while not challenging the Spurs at the top of the mountain. If the Mavericks get locked up into their playoff positioning, we may also have another free game in April.

So there you have it, the Suns road to the playoffs. Hopefully writing this didn't somehow jinx the whole season, which I'm sure it did.

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Comments

I think 6th seed is still up for grabs.

Portland Denver Hornets are struggling and will continue to struggle. Teams in the 6th down to 10th spot are very inconsistent. We can still grab the 6th seed but I want us to settle for that 8th seed and pull off an upset against the Spurs.

by shawndy on Feb 28, 2011 5:39 AM MST reply actions

Ha

It’s not that I want them to settle for the 8th seed or anything, but getting above that will be very tough. The Hornets are struggling but overall that’s a talented team, they’ll pull it together. Nuggets have aims of moving up themselves, and are very deep with a strong belief in themselves. Portland is very talented now with the addition of Wallace. I’d like the Suns to get higher but it’d be tough.

by joejoeb88 on Feb 28, 2011 6:35 AM MST reply actions

Hornets just got scorched by the Raptors...

…and are something like 3-7 in their last 10 games. And as a result, we are tied in the loss column with them.

There’s also nothing to them that indicates that they have been doing anything other than trending downward toward mediocrity after a very hot start, whereas, there are good reasons to think that the Suns are trending upward, esp. when much of Nash’s genius in coordinating an offense relies on his ability to create synergy/chemistry.

Suns are only 2 games behind the Hornets and I think we have a far better than 50% chance of overtaking them. Also, besides Memphis, we have a decent chance of reeling in Portland and maybe Denver, too, depending on how they end up doing with their new ex-Knicks crew (Gallo’s already injured, although they beat ATL without him).

by tameszu on Mar 2, 2011 11:03 AM MST up reply actions

Hollinger Playoff Odds

Has us up to 42.5%. We have been in the teens and 20s for much of the middle of the season so I think his methodology is seeing the writing on the wall about Utah. Interesting thing is Memphis has better playoff odds than Portland. Hard to say though how much tweaking there is for the trade of Wallace and the injury to Gay.

Frankly I don’t think Gay matters that much to Memphis, but that schedule is a big factor. Gay is putting up numbers because of a high usage rate, the Grizz will just give the ball to others to shoot it. Grant Hill is practically equal in his effective numbers, but just doesn’t get the ball nearly as much and plays fewer minutes. I guess what we should all start chanting is “Give it to OJ!”

by Fakers Stink on Feb 28, 2011 10:34 AM MST reply actions

what an awesome job hollinger has

hmm this team is losing alot, I say their odds of making the playoffs is 11.354%

what’s that? they’re winning? ok well in that case I say 44.153 %

Oh, now they’re in the 7th spot? ..err let’s call it 100%

I’m a genuis!!!!

by Fritzy on Mar 1, 2011 11:04 AM MST up reply actions

to be fair

The maths on Differential (offensive efficiency – defensive efficiency per 100 possessions) is well known! And the suns differential is getting better so…

by motherwell on Mar 1, 2011 5:01 PM MST up reply actions

understood

however, it’s a bit like a fortune teller who only tells you what just happened…

so as a analytical tool to break down where a team is currently at, it’s fine…but as a predictive tool ( which is often the implication, such as the alleged playoff predictor ) it’s not very useful.

by Fritzy on Mar 2, 2011 11:17 AM MST up reply actions

Woah

have you not noticed we are only 3 games back of the sixth seed? there is plenty PLENTY of time for us not settle for the eighth seed

by Scottyyy on Feb 28, 2011 10:45 AM MST reply actions

The Suns are one game out of fifth in the loss column.

I think you’re selling them short joejoe….

Never confuse activity with achievement.

by Jim Coughenour on Feb 28, 2011 10:51 AM MST reply actions

I agree with Jim, you gotta go by the loss column

And, I would think nobody seeded 5-8 is a “lock” whatsoever. If any one of those teams go on a 3 game losing streak, they could drop down to the 10th spot in less than a week.

Bo Baggins!

by ajotanelsona on Feb 28, 2011 11:39 AM MST reply actions

Exactly

Over the last 50 games, the Hornets have played ~.500 ball, and it’s been only .333 over the last 15 games.

Denver is a deep team, but it just lost Melo and Billups. We’ll see how long it can hold up, and it’s also been ~.500 over the last 15 games.

Portland and Memphis are right there with us, having similar records and are playing better than Denver and NO, so it’s a complete tossup for 5-9. We simply have to execute in these last 24 games.

by Mint on Mar 1, 2011 1:18 AM MST up reply actions

We're in the Western Conference

It’s packed tight. I think the 6th seed is definitely up for grabs. But I’d like to see us get the 8th seed first.

by Skii on Feb 28, 2011 4:52 PM MST reply actions

Just FYI....

Our Schedule from March to April is also Brutal :-
Total 24 Games
14 Games against Playoff Teams (Teams Currently in the Playoffs)

Of these 14 Games, let’s break down the Playoff teams into
A) Top Tier – These teams are ranked Top 4 in their respective conferences
B) Mid Tier – Teams 5-8 on the current Rankings.

A) Top Tier Teams – 10 Games.
Breakdown – Bos (01), OKC (02), Orl (01), LAL (01), Dal (02), CHI (01), SA (02)
Of these 10 Games, I would only give us a better chance to beat BOS – We have owned them in the past 8-10 games. 65%-35% in favor of the Suns

The rest are all games that we could lose, for most games our chances would be 40%-60% in favor of the opponents.For Arguments Sake we will look at a 4-6 record in these 10 Games.

B) Mid Tier Teams – NOH (03), Den (01)
These are pretty much 50-50Games and I would be VERY glad if we come out of these 3-1. (Especially if we beat NOH in all 3)

Of the Balance 10 Games –
Sac (01), Hou(02), GSW – Again we have a better chance of taking those games but Sac has owned us and Hou now has Dragic and God only knows How much Former Suns LOVE to torch us. Expected Record 3-1

Also, we have the Following Teams at the end of a B2B :-
Hous(01), TOR, OKC, T’Wolves(02)

Most of these B2B Teams are the ones we are supposed to beat. But being at the end of a B2B, we should be glad with a 3-2 Record on these games. (Highly Optimistic).
Balance 03 Games I would expect us to Win Hands Down.

4-6 – Top Tier
3-1 – Mid Tier
2-1 – Non-Playoff Teams (Houston has a B2B)
3-1 – BalancE B2B games
3-0 – Non-Playoff Fodder Teams (LAC x 2, MIL x 01)
16-8 – Optimistic Record.

But since we are the SUNS, I am PRAYING for the Best.
I will similarly Breakdown MEM Schedule in the next comment

On the Gani Lawal Bandwagon.
Suns Future All-Star
Mark these words........

by SS21 on Mar 1, 2011 3:23 AM MST reply actions

MEM Schedule below :-

Total 21 Games :-
14 Games against Palyoff Teams :-

A) Top-Tier Teams – Teams in the Top 4 in their Respective Conferences.
07 Games – SAS, MAV (01), OKC, MIA, BOS, CHI
Worst Record – 0-7, Best Record 4-3. I expect 2-5
But I seriously don’t know where will they get these 2 Wins

B) Mid Tier – Ranked 5-8
06 Games – NOH, NY(02), IND, POR
Expected Record – 3-4

C) End B2B’s -Not Against Top-Tier
02 Games – , T’Wolves(01), LAC
Expected Record – 1-1

D) Playoff Fodder – (Non-B2B’s Only)
LAC, UTAH, GSW, SAC
Best 4-0. Expected 3-1.

Summary
2-5 – Top Tier Teams
3-4 – Mid Tier Teams
1-1 B2B’s
3-1 Playoff Fodder
10-10

I am missing a game Somewhere. But do not wish to go thru the whole thing again.
But MOST Optimistically I expect MEM to have a 11-10 record in their last 21.
But this will be Too Tight. With NOH in free fall. Den Improved and POR not Budging from the 5th Spot. Our only hope is that Jazz/NOH Continue to falter.

On the Gani Lawal Bandwagon.
Suns Future All-Star
Mark these words........

by SS21 on Mar 1, 2011 3:43 AM MST reply actions

I believe some of you are being over optimistic

by looking at the 5-6 seed. I’m not saying it can’t happen, but let’s see this team actually catch Memphis before we set our hopes too high. We’ve been winning more games lately, but we’ve shown a lot of flaws. Can’t close out 4th quarters well, plays down to bad teams, bench is schizophrenic, Nash is more prone to subpar games, Gentry making some head scratching decisions, our shooting guard position is in complete shambles. Look, I don’t think Denver or even New Orleans are un-catchable.. but those teams have 4 more wins than us right now. I don’t think my post is short selling the Suns when you consider the above factors. Also, I don’t want to get too carried away just as a defense mechanism. Why get my hopes high and be disappointed when I can keep them low and be pleasantly surprised? :-) But actually, before each season my brother and I make playoff picks, and I chose the Suns to get the 4th or 5th seed. So maybe I shouldn’t back off that now, aye?

by joejoeb88 on Mar 1, 2011 7:50 AM MST reply actions

Nash's "sub-par" games

OK, so his 3-pt. shooting may have cratered a little, but he’s still shooting FGs overall at 50% and dishing out consistent double-doubles. (Averaging 10 pts and over 12 assists since the all-star break.)

I think he’s had a double-double in nearly every game since the New Year; he only missed one in the Raptors game by a few pts because we were beating them so bad that he got to rest the whole 4th Q. Given that there are only a handful of teams in the league with PGs who average a double-double, if a “sub-par” Nash is 12 assists and 10 pts (as opposed to 16 pts) a night, I think we’ll be fine.

Also, Brooks hasn’t gotten a practice in yet; I expect that once he gets integrated into our offence, the closing out 4th quarters issues may subside quite a bit.

by tameszu on Mar 2, 2011 11:20 AM MST up reply actions

I have faith, my friend.

Optimism, pessimism…who cares? It’s never done me any harm to envision the Suns in the playoffs, and it hasn’t been a major issue the last few years has it…so…GO SUNS no matter what!

"This [basketball] is the second most exciting indoor sport, and the other one shouldn't have spectators."

by Basketball GF on Mar 1, 2011 5:12 PM MST reply actions

We're actually in 9th seed. Utah lost last night.

Twitter: @FredLegittt

by modernage13 on Mar 1, 2011 7:18 PM MST reply actions

And New Orleans just lost to the Raptors. Let’s hope Portland and Memphis do the same tonight although Memphis is killing the Spurs.

Twitter: @FredLegittt

by modernage13 on Mar 1, 2011 7:23 PM MST up reply actions

Two outta three ain’t bad.

I’m feeling more and more like we’re not going to catch the Grizzlies, because they’re just playing too consistently well. Fortunately, we have four other targets. Utah’s down, and Portland’s next.

Go Suns!

by Mint on Mar 1, 2011 10:35 PM MST up reply actions

I really don’t think the Grizz can keep it up. They have a brutal schedule, their best player is out for a month, and their center, Gasol, gets like 7 pts and 5 boards a game. How are they winning? It can’t continue.

by BringBackBarkley17 on Mar 1, 2011 11:58 PM MST up reply actions