Dirk: am I going home early yet again? (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
While the Suns face an uncertain future, one thing seems sure: the 13th pick in the upcoming NBA draft (less than 1% chance to win the lottery).
Utah is in the catbird seat for the 12th pick, holding a 2 game lead over the Suns (1 fewer win, plus the tiebreak by losing the season series), while Houston has the 14th pick locked in with a 3-game lead of their own. Considering there's only 2 or 3 games left for each team, the suspense is over.
The Dallas Mavericks, on the other hand, could finish anywhere from 2-4 in the conference standings. Big Whup, right? Well, to Dallas I believe it should be a big, big whup because no one wants to play Denver in the first round. If Dallas fades to 4th (OKC is only 1 game back with 3 winnable games to go), they get to face the fast and furious Denver Nuggets and will likely be first-round losers yet again.
Click the jump for much more preview...
The Nuggets have stated the obvious already - that it's preferable to face the fading Mavs (old, losers of 4 of 5, and a perennial playoff loser) over the young, studly Thunder.
"If we had to pick and choose on it, we would probably say 55 percent Dallas, 45 percent Oklahoma City, only because Oklahoma City is athletic like we are and they have two great players."In a lot of ways, I think their strength is their weakness," Karl said. "Their strength is they have tremendous ability to score by making jump shots. They are the best jump shooting team in the NBA by far. [Coach Rick] Carlisle is a very good offensive guy in getting good shots and tricking teams into open shots. They're very unselfish in finding the open man and getting open jump shots.
"In some sense, the jump shot doesn't go in as much as scoring in the paint. The two things I would say is I wish Dallas would score more in the paint and get to the free throw line more."
Wow, big bulletin-board material for a playoff juggernaut right?
Somehow, I doubt it. The Mavericks and their core of Nowitzki and Terry (and the other guys have changed over the years) know they have trouble once it comes to playoff time. They know it because they prove it year after year. And the Nuggets don't give a rat's behind about any of that.
The question the Mavs have to ask themselves is this: how important is it to win a playoff series?
|San Antonio Spurs||80||61-19||.763|
|Los Angeles Lakers||79||55-24||.696|
|Oklahoma City Thunder||79||53-26||.671|
|Portland Trail Blazers||80||47-33||.588|
|New Orleans Hornets||79||46-33||.582|
|Golden State Warriors||79||35-44||.443|
|Los Angeles Clippers||81||31-50||.383|
If a second round showing is good enough, then fight like crazy for the 2nd or 3rd seed. Round 1 should be winnable (Portland/NO/Memphis), but round 2 looms the Lake show. By contrast, if you can win Round 1 as the 4 seed, the 1-4-5-8 bracket should provide an easier Round 2 - the fading Spurs or Memphis/NO.
So Dallas has a quandry. Take the risk/reward of the 1-4-5-8 bracket? Or the bird-in-hand 2-3-6-7 bracket with the lower ceiling?
We'll see tonight.
The Suns, as I mentioned above, have little to play for besides pride. They can't even improve their draft position unless they "lose out" (which is quite possible) and Utah "wins out" (highly, highly unlikely). Utah faces 2 playoff teams in their final 2 games - New Orleans and Denver - and they've shown 0 interest in winning, losing 10 of 11 (good showing, Lakers!).
The Jazz have a bright future, though it's without a superstar. SF Gordon Heyward and PF Derrick Favors are nice building blocks, along with 2 lottery picks in the upcoming draft (currently 6th and 12th). They could conceivably win the lottery twice and take future stars at PG and SF or C. Still, they will need a superstar (just as the Suns do) if they want to contend again, but that's a lot nicer future than the Suns currently face.
At least Steve Nash isn't asking for a trade.
"I want to stay and be part of the franchise moving forward," Nash said. "I would love to see us improve. I'm not going to be satisfied or happy on a team that doesn't make the playoffs, but it's up to us to fight and improve. Whether it was announced or desired, this is a team in transition. We've made moves continuously since July 1, and I don't think we're quite settled on what we want to be. I don't think management is going to stop until they get a group or project they feel good about."
Read more: http://www.azcentral.com/sports/suns/articles/2011/04/07/20110407phoenix-suns-transition-nba-lockout.html#ixzz1J8BkFK9z
What will the Suns do this summer? Who knows.
But for tonight, Nash looks to help the Suns pile on the Mavericks sloppy finish.
The big silver lining to tonight's game is for the Phoenix Suns to "help" the Mavs drop to the 4th seed and watch them get run off the floor by the Nuggets in the Round 1.
Suns' new role: playoff spoiler.