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Phoenix Suns 2010/11 Player Evaluations: Josh Childress, The Price Is Wrong

Welcome to the third piece of the 2010-11 Phoenix Suns Player Evaluations. We here at Bright Side of the Sun have assembled somewhat of an All-Star cast of writers to put together alternative views on the players, front office, and coaches. Your favorite and least favorite Suns will no doubt get plenty of attention, and the compliments or criticism they deserve. Unless we're talking Vince Carter. Only criticism there. Anyway...

Joshchildres_medium 

Hearkening back to the somewhat-better days of last summer, we saw the arrival of three new acquisitions for the Phoenix Suns. Hedo Turkoglu, Hakim Warrick and Josh Childress were introduced within the matter of just a couple of days, and throughout the 2010/11 season the carousel continued on its merry way. After the curtain dropped rather prematurely in early spring, we had seen Turkoglu, Warrick, Childress, Marcin Gortat, Mickael Pietrus, Vince Carter and Aaron Brooks all make debuts as Suns. Looking back at my own mindset at each respective time, I wasn't more excited to see any one of those players lace 'em up for the Purp as I was when Josh Childress the 'Fro-licious signed here.

It was impossible not to compare Chill to Shawn Marion. His hops, garbage-pailness and athletic yeah-I-just-snuck-in-there-and-did-thatness had me highly anticipating the Matrix Reloaded, right down to the jumper that was so fugly it could put Bill Cartwright in hysterics. 

Well much like the Matrix Reloaded, it was more fizzle than sizzle, even though that 'fro is righteously fo' rizzle. What went wrong? Was all this because of a busted finger? Or did Gentry perhaps cost the team a few wins by not releasing the Chill? It's all just so much pontificating at this point; what's important now is: Will a consistent 25mpg from Josh Childress make this team better?

 

 

Star-divide

For the sake of argument, let's assume that the broken finger he sustained in preseason was the root of most of his troubles. His failure to hit even half of his freethrows after a career of being above-average in that department lends no other explanation. I'm willing to write off his horrid shooting this season as a product of injury. The problem is, even if you wipe that away, things don't bode very well for the future.

For his career (again, not counting this season), Childress has averaged 0.9 three-point attempts per game. As a wing player for the Phoenix Suns, this is, for all intents and purposes, unacceptable. A shy trigger-finger in this system will pretty much punch your ticket straight to Garret Siler land. This is why Mickael Pietrus was given a spot in the rotation, despite maniacally hoisting up scud missiles from anywhere on the court, while Childress was a spectator. I'm not saying it's right, but it's the preference of the coaching staff and likely (and probably more importantly), it's the preference of Steve Nash

It would be natural to point out in defense of Childress that Shawn Marion has a worse career 3pt percentage (.332 to Childress' .343), and that didn't stop him from thriving in the Suns system. The big difference here is that Shawn has attempted 2.3 a game; adding up to 1.4 more attempts from deep than Childress. Drilling threes like Ray Allen is not a requirement to play for the Suns, but passing up shots or showing any hesitation on the perimeter is disastrous for a SG or SF in this system. If Steve finds you open in the corner, you better damn well let the orange fly. 

So what would it take for Childress to earn his keep as a Sun? His reputation as a solid defender preceded him, but like every other part of his game the sample-size as a Sun was too small. His best shot might be to become a younger and more athletic version of Grant Hill while splitting time with him at SF, thus allowing the Suns to keep a versatile defensive ace on the floor when Hill sits. For this to work, however, he would have to A) start shooting when open, maybe learning the corner three Raja-style, or B) be so effective in his defensive-minded garbage-pail role that he can stay on the floor despite his shyness on the perimeter. 

I don't have much confidence in either of those things happening, especially since "earning his keep" would entail playing up to par for a contract that will pay him $29mil/4 years. Even at his best, Josh Childress is still (stop me if you've heard this before) a role player. You know who pays role players $30 million? Championship contenders. Teams that pay role players $30 million and don't contend end up being... the Indiana Pacers.

As much as I hope I'm wrong about this, the best case scenario for Childress and the Suns is for him to play well enough to increase his trade value. This team needs players with potential for growth, not more role players with limited skill-sets.

Sorry Josh, this hurts me more than it hurts you.

Comment 59 comments  |  5 recs  | 

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Roger,

I don’t entirely agree with you, but you got some points right.

Josh’s play was nothing great at all, but it was the case for our whole team in the season. But I do think that Childress is worth the money we paid for him and he didn’t get the best opportunity yet to show us what he brings to the table.

I saw the last games of the season only to see what he could do with 20+ minutes of playing time on a consistant basis. I don’t have the stats right now to validate it, but I liked what I saw. And I can remeber now at least one game (that victory at Oklahoma City in the mid season) where he was everything we wanted – a great defender with nice touches around the rim.

And I don’t agree with your take that Vince Carter is only passive of criticism. I tought he played some good games for us and was just put on a bad position (starter) by Gentry. I think he can play a nice role off the bench as a scorer for us on the next season, but I highly doubt that we’ll resign him.

http://phoenixsunsamazon.blogspot.com

by Diego Queiroz on Apr 26, 2011 8:49 AM MST reply actions  

That was a badass game against Oklahoma and Josh was awesome.

If he’s given the minutes, he gets some really solid work done.

"If the Devil walks the Earth, he probably wears a Spurs uniform." - Me

by Zentrified on Apr 26, 2011 12:39 PM MST up reply actions  

On a more serious note

Does the afro slow him down or change his shot because of the aerodynamics?

Alea iacta est!

by PolishHammer on Apr 26, 2011 10:20 AM MST reply actions   1 recs

Fail! But rec'd for the racism!

"If the Devil walks the Earth, he probably wears a Spurs uniform." - Me

by Zentrified on Apr 26, 2011 12:40 PM MST up reply actions  

people of all color can have afros.

Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun

by Alex Laugan on Apr 26, 2011 1:51 PM MST up reply actions  

Huh how was that racist?

His afro is just huge, look at the pic. And as Alex said, white people can have afro’s too.

Alea iacta est!

by PolishHammer on Apr 26, 2011 2:10 PM MST up reply actions   1 recs

Is that Weird Al?

"If the Devil walks the Earth, he probably wears a Spurs uniform." - Me

by Zentrified on Apr 26, 2011 10:10 PM MST up reply actions  

I had a grade school teammate who had a mop/'fro thing going on.

He was the 2nd best player on the team, so I don’t think it hurt him too much.

Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!

Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl XLV Champions!!!!

by Omaha Sun on May 2, 2011 2:24 PM MST up reply actions  

because

Sarver didn’t feel like retiring Amare’s number when he left.

by eagleheart on Apr 26, 2011 11:58 AM MST up reply actions  

How many active players have their numbers retired?

I’ll take your answer off air.

Founder of the Coalition to Light Vince Carter On Fire (CTLVCOF)
RIP Seasons of Discontent

by Scott Howard on Apr 26, 2011 12:30 PM MST up reply actions   1 recs

17

"If the Devil walks the Earth, he probably wears a Spurs uniform." - Me

by Zentrified on Apr 26, 2011 12:40 PM MST up reply actions  

This team needs players with potential for growth, not more role players with limited skill-sets

This is the biggest thing that bothers me about him. When I think of Josh Childress the first three words that pop into my head are fro, chilly and limited. I like fros and I like chilly, but I don’t limits.

He has the skill-set of a PF, but is too small to play it. He can’t play SG either because he’s too slow. He can do a good job defensively on other SF’s, but that’s it. When it comes to his offensive game, he can’t shoot, not even a mid-range jumper. I didn’t see him take one last season. He can only be an SF for us, but he’s got to get that mid-range jumper back in order to be effective on this team.

Don't trade Dudley!

by Beavis 25 on Apr 26, 2011 10:38 AM MST reply actions  

Why don't you like limits?
I like fros and I like chilly, but I don’t limits.

Calculus is cool. I’ll bet Chilly likes Calculus. Maybe he’s better at it than basketball – because he kind of sucks at basketball. Last year it was hard to differentiate between Chilly and a scrub and I doubt next year the Suns will integrate him in the rotation. That’s nerd talk.

Never confuse activity with achievement.

by Jim Coughenour on Apr 26, 2011 1:26 PM MST up reply actions  

??

The ONLY skill he lacks is shooting. That is only ONE of many skills an NBA player needs.

JChill is a really good player, and that we didn’t play him, pretty much at all, was a travesty, and the single biggest indictment on Gentry as a coach.

by MMotherwell on Apr 26, 2011 3:40 PM MST up reply actions  

Disagree

Hill passes up plenty of shots. And besides, when Nash sits, which is one and a half quarters per game, the game changes. We have a Nash team (30 minutes) and a non-Nash team (18 minutes). Surely JChill can play sans Nash?

I think people focus on scoring and a teams setup as if the team always plays the starters. In a 48 minute non-playoff game (Playoffs shorten rosters as starters play longer minutes), if a coach can’t find a way to use a player as good as Childress, as a bench player at least, then he needs to ask what is wrong with his system.

Focus on what JChill brings (our best fast break player, a quality defender, a scrapper and rebounder and a no mistake, low turnover player) and not the one thing he can’t do (shoot pretty) and you can find a way to make use of his talents.

Our second unit sucked all year, and JChill, as a player who can get to the hole and pass, would be a potent option as a second unit point-forward. If we keep Brooks, have Brooks bring the ball up court, pass to JChill and let JChill run the PnR, with Brooks as a spot up shooter and scorer, a role he excels in. Makes best use of Brooks and JChill.

by MMotherwell on Apr 26, 2011 6:22 PM MST up reply actions  

I was with you when you were suggesting that the Suns’ offense should be rethinked, but then you lost me when you suggested that Chill should run the PnR.

I smell like the vault. I'm so PAID.

by RMason on Apr 26, 2011 6:39 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

JChill can pass, dribble and get to the basket. Run the PnR, and you nullify his shooting and maximise his abilities.

by MMotherwell on Apr 26, 2011 9:59 PM MST up reply actions  

Not necessarily.

If you can’t shoot, it is a lot easier for the other team defend it. They can easily go under the screen and squeeze on the roll. I think Chilly can be potent as the initiator of the offense, but not the P&R.

Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!

Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl XLV Champions!!!!

by Omaha Sun on May 2, 2011 2:29 PM MST up reply actions  

Childress is a poor man's Marion

except he’s not as good at anything as Marion was. Chill can rebound, but Marion did it better. Chill can slash, but marion did it better. Chill can shoot, but Marion did it better (sadly enough).

There is a chance that Chill will be much better next year, and reprise his 10/5/3 career numbers. He needs to believe in his shooting, even if its only successful 33% of the time (like Marion was). But that will only happen if the Suns get a big-time shooter/scorer on the court with him to balance out the spacing. He’s like Hill and Dudley – great at being no better than the 4th-7th best player on the court. If the Suns score big on a 2 this summer – either through the draft or FA or trade – then Chill would be a good compliment.

Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun

by Alex Laugan on Apr 26, 2011 10:40 AM MST reply actions  

having said all that

I still believe Chill is worth 7 mil a year if he provides a consistent 25 min, 10 pts, 5 reb line as a 6th-8th man in a quality rotation.

Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun

by Alex Laugan on Apr 26, 2011 10:43 AM MST up reply actions  

Egregious Contracts 101
Childress is a poor man’s Marion except he’s not as good at anything as Marion was.

Kind of like Warrick was Amare-Lite right?

I still believe Chill is worth 7 mil a year if he provides a consistent 25 min, 10 pts, 5 reb line as a 6th-8th man in a quality rotation.

Not sure the math works out here…. So let’s say a team has 10 Chilly’s making a total of $70 million (which is the luxury tax). That team would win about 3 games while succeeding in being well above the cap of $58 million. Even if Chilly was a 6th or 7th man (which he wasn’t last year), $7 million would really be pushing it. A 6th or 7th man needs to be slotted at about $4-5 million. $7 million is starter money.

The exact instant that Carter is bought out, Childress’s contract becomes the biggest blight upon the franchise. A team can’t afford to have it’s second highest paid player score 5 points a game while playing more defense against the end of the bench than opposing players.

Just say the words “Childress is the Suns second highest paid player.” That sounds like a recipe for disaster. I hope that some of you are right, because the Suns can’t afford to get zero production from a sizable investment.

Never confuse activity with achievement.

by Jim Coughenour on Apr 26, 2011 1:50 PM MST up reply actions   1 recs

ah Jim. I can always count on you for glass-is-half-empty hyperbole.

Warrick makes 1/3 what Marion did, and given minutes he would produce more than 1/3 of Marion did. I’ll stop there.

Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun

by Alex Laugan on Apr 26, 2011 1:53 PM MST up reply actions  

I think in Childress's case

the glass is half full of sh**.

Never confuse activity with achievement.

by Jim Coughenour on Apr 26, 2011 2:25 PM MST up reply actions  

My favorite part about Jim

Is that he even responds to neutral or cautiously optimistic comments with brooding pessimism.

I smell like the vault. I'm so PAID.

by RMason on Apr 26, 2011 4:02 PM MST up reply actions  

right

but at least he was nice enough not to lambast me for inadvertantly using Warrick’s name when I meant Childress. He understands the bigger picture, which is to make his point as clearly as possible without scurrying down a totally different rabbit hole.

Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun

by Alex Laugan on Apr 26, 2011 5:11 PM MST up reply actions  

One thing of note

If Childress is a poor man’s Marion, then why are the Suns paying him the same amount of money that Dallas is paying Marion?

Never confuse activity with achievement.

by Jim Coughenour on Apr 26, 2011 2:34 PM MST up reply actions  

Because Marion is a poor man's Marion now.

Founder of the Coalition to Light Vince Carter On Fire (CTLVCOF)
RIP Seasons of Discontent

by Scott Howard on Apr 26, 2011 2:52 PM MST up reply actions   3 recs

double nice

Steve Nash, the league's MVP, is a longhaired Canadian who spoke out against the war in Iraq and reads The Communist Manifesto. Quentin Richardson declared after a game-winning shot that it "was like Hamlet. It was a suspense thriller, and I killed them at the end." Amare Stoudemire, when asked to comment on a 22-point third quarter against the Kings, said, "I've got a tendency to jump over some guys' heads and throw it down."

by rsavaj on Apr 27, 2011 10:16 AM MST up reply actions  

Really ? you,ll pick pietrus instead of Chilly?

He can D, he can finish at the rim, thats all we need from a backup-SF, but hey he does a lil more, he gets offensive rebounds, he always seems to be at the right place at the right time, yeah he might not shoot but i do think he can score pretty well under the rim, 30 mils for that <—— thats the way our FO works, totally fkd up… And besides i,d use pietrus for SG instead of SF.

Do not let Steve Nash and Grant Hill go away, please.
Otherwhise im not buying any tickets from you Saver.

by Lino Canaan on Apr 26, 2011 11:19 AM MST via mobile reply actions  

3 ball

The biggest gripe people have against Chilli is his lack of 3 ball. I say who cares about him shooting the three.

Driving to the basket is a more conventional attack and draws in the defense, freeing other 3 point shooters (ie Dudley or Frye). You guys remember Sweet Lou couldn’t shoot a lick but totally made an impact on the game when he was in. Chilli created impact. Grabbin’ offensive boards and putting them in and slashing towards the hoop for example instead of fading away and standing around on the three point line.

There are more ways to be productive than hoisting threes. Give me Chilli over Pietrus on my team ANY day. Chilli is a team player, Pietrus is a black hole.

by eagleheart on Apr 26, 2011 11:56 AM MST reply actions  

Sweet Lou couldn’t shoot a lick

I normally don’t compare apples to pomegranates, but Lou was almost always paired with Frye in the frontcourt, thus making his non-existent offense irrelevant.

I say who cares about him shooting the three

The coaching staff and Steve Nash. Childress on the perimeter allows the opposing defense to sag off like Bob Barker’s ass, thus compromising the entire Suns’ offense. You can argue that the Suns offense should be more versatile (I certainly would), but a gun-shy wing player just doesn’t fit.

I smell like the vault. I'm so PAID.

by RMason on Apr 26, 2011 12:04 PM MST up reply actions  

Hill passes up shots almost as much

Except for corner threes. This is why systems are silly. JChill was one of 4 above average players we gave minutes to according to http://nerdnumbers.com/seasons (Others – Nash, Gortat and JRich). He needed more minutes – plain and simple.

by MMotherwell on Apr 26, 2011 3:44 PM MST up reply actions  

I wish we were the Pacers. They made the playoffs.

"If the Devil walks the Earth, he probably wears a Spurs uniform." - Me

by Zentrified on Apr 26, 2011 12:38 PM MST reply actions  

You couldn't pay me to live in Indiana. So no.

Also “GRANGER SUCKS”

Founder of the Coalition to Light Vince Carter On Fire (CTLVCOF)
RIP Seasons of Discontent

by Scott Howard on Apr 26, 2011 12:53 PM MST up reply actions  

what's wrong with indiana?

I'm from Chicago. I like the Phoenix Suns more than the Chicago Bulls

by sunsfanfromchitown on Apr 26, 2011 4:17 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

you mean, you wish the Suns were in the East.

I would rather NOT be the Pacers. At all.

Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun

by Alex Laugan on Apr 26, 2011 1:54 PM MST up reply actions  

All I care about at this point is that I'm not watching the Suns play.

"If the Devil walks the Earth, he probably wears a Spurs uniform." - Me

by Zentrified on Apr 26, 2011 10:09 PM MST up reply actions  

Why not have him take Lou’s role as the backup 4?

by reneovjr on Apr 26, 2011 12:39 PM MST reply actions  

He isn't really capable of playing the 4.

Chilly was given time at the 4 and that was a failed experiment.

"If the Devil walks the Earth, he probably wears a Spurs uniform." - Me

by Zentrified on Apr 26, 2011 12:46 PM MST up reply actions  

Solid column, rec'd.

"If the Devil walks the Earth, he probably wears a Spurs uniform." - Me

by Zentrified on Apr 26, 2011 12:46 PM MST reply actions  

I think..

Childress is going to be amazing next Season.

And Aaron Brooks too. And Nash will average 35 a game.

My Association in 2k11 proves it.

by ZillaRock on Apr 26, 2011 2:52 PM MST reply actions  

If we feel the need to compare him to an ex-Sun, how about Cedric Ceballos?

He’s about the same size and had some similar traits (always around the ball for garbage points, not a good shooter). Check out this comparison of each of them at age 24. I don’t use Childress’ stats from this season with the Suns because I think he deserves a mulligan for several reasons, but he was 24 in his last season with the Hawks.
Check it out.
Ceballos scored more, but did it less efficiently. They were roughly equal defensively and with rebounding, and virtually even on win shares per 48 minutes. Note that early in his career, Ceballos almost never attempted 3s, but built himself up into being a below average but acceptable 3 point shooter later in his career. Can Chilly do the same?

Those of you old enough to remember Ceballos, what do you think of the comparison? And, if it’s relatively fair, would you have thought Ceballos was worth then what the Suns are due to pay Childress now?

by East Bay Ray on Apr 26, 2011 3:18 PM MST reply actions  

when I think of Ced

I lean more toward a modern-comparison of Carl Landry. Garbage points and offensive rebounds. I hope Childress turns out similarly, but he plays a bit further from the basket.

Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun

by Alex Laugan on Apr 26, 2011 5:15 PM MST up reply actions  

Nice article Mr. Mason!

One of the most honest and accurate assessments of Chill that I’ve read thus far. Like you, I really like Josh and was excited when I heard we signed him. I thought he would end up being the steal of free agency, and I also would fit into our offense just like Marion did.

Well, we were certainly wrong on that one weren’t we? In fact, many of us were so wrong that it begs the question, “What went wrong?”. This is where it gets interesting…

1. As you pointed out, we could blame his poor season on the broken finger, which may have been further exacerbated by our refusal to shut him down at the start of the season and just let it heal. Instead, Josh tried to play through it and it took away even more accuracy from his already poor shooting. The injury lingered on for months, and by the time it finally healed he was already on his way out of the rotation…which leads me to #2

2. Another issue that goes along with the first possibility is that Josh had such a poor start to his season that Gentry began limiting his minutes before he even had a chance to play with a healthy shooting hand. Not only this, but you have to think that the poor start and the DNP’s must have done a number to Chill’s confidence as well…Which may have been the reason that he was so reluctant to take open shots. And this also ties in quite nicely to #3…

3. When Chilldress played for ATL he was very Marionesque, and this was the player we all expected to see return to the NBA. However, Chill admitted that it was going to be a difficult transition back to playing in the NBA compared to his time in Greece. I’m sure it has to be quite a change even for a player who already played in the NBA prior, and I’m not sure if Chill adjusted to playing with the quicker, faster, stronger players of the NBA as quickly as he’d hoped.

Those are ny best guesses as to what happened this season, and I actually believe it could be a combination of all three that made for such a disappointing season. The good news is, Josh now has an entire off-season to work on the areas of his game he struggled with last season and get himself ready for next season. The player he was in ATL is still in there somewhere, and he’s still very young with plenty of productive years left ahead of him.

I still remain cautiously optimistic that he will be able to turn it around next season and contribute meaningful minutes off the bench. We did see flashes this season, and maybe next season we can see them more regularly. If so, then maybe there is hope for him to stay in PHX as an option to start in the post Hill era. If not, then I agree that we should at least hope that he can play well enough to regain some trade value.

Like I said, I still have hope for J-Chill and I would like to see him play one more season before making up my mind one way or another. I know how productive he can be on both ends of the floor, and I just hope he gets a chance to prove himself with a clean slate at the beginning of next season, and that he is able to find his way into the rotation. Time will tell…

by 7footer on Apr 26, 2011 5:06 PM MST via mobile reply actions   2 recs

at the risk of sounding stupid...

Chilly is still relatively young, and has an entire (possibly very long) off-season to work on his game. Is it totally unreasonable to think that he could add a three-point shot to his arsenal of skills? Something that he could hoist up 2-3 times per game that would go in one out of every three times (33%)?

For better or worse, we have to find a way to use Chill. No other GM in the league would take on his contract unless he’s been given roofies and hypnotized. We either need to find a way to fit him into our system, or at least find a way to increase his minutes to raise his trade value.

For the record, I’d much rather watch J-Chill play than Pietrus. I’ve had enough of watching peaches get stupid technicals and launch even stupider shots. At least Chill plays hard, hustles on defense, and generally makes positive things happen. This is a contrast to pietrus and warrick (and lopez, for that matter), who I basically pray don’t find a way to kill us when they’re on the floor.

Just remember what ol' Jack Burton does when the earth quakes, and the poison arrows fall from the sky, and the pillars of Heaven shake. Yeah, Jack Burton just looks that big ol' storm right square in the eye and he says, "Give me your best shot, pal. I can take it."

~Jack Burton, "Big Trouble in Little China"

by u_must_chill on Apr 26, 2011 11:13 PM MST reply actions  

Pietrus plays very hard on the defensive end and is a better defender.

Chill is a better offensive player because he takes good shots.

Don't trade Dudley!

by Beavis 25 on Apr 27, 2011 6:35 AM MST up reply actions  

It would have been so easy for j-chill

To pout and have become a distraction over his lack opf pt.However he handled himself with class, was the first guy off the bench cheerleading and that alone I think commands respect.

Lover,Poet,Suns fan,All around damn good guy.

by stevedavis_ on Apr 27, 2011 6:49 AM MST reply actions   2 recs

We keep making the Marion comparison.

There are certainly some similarities between the 2, but they are nnot the same player. Shawn is a better post player and is a bit thicker, which is why he was able to play PF. Chilly is much more perimeter-oriented. He is a better ball-handler and can make things happen off the dribble, which wasn’t exactly Shawn’s strength. This again leads me back to the same point I’ve made multiple times. Give him a shot initiating the offense some as a SF off the bench.

Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!

Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl XLV Champions!!!!

by Omaha Sun on May 2, 2011 2:47 PM MST reply actions  

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