Advanced stats show Markieff may be underrated, Tristan/Jimmer overrated
by rsavaj on Jun 19, 2011 10:26 AM MST
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PrintThis is a really eye-opening piece from ValleyoftheSuns.com. You should definitely read the whole thing(at the link), but here are some excerpts:
The guy who immediately sticks out to me is Markieff Morris, who ranks second among power forwards with a 13.5 PAWS40 behind only Kenneth Faried, the small school product whose 17.2 score laps the field.
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What impresses me most about Markieff is his stellar defensive rebound rate. He corralled 24.4 percent of the available defensive rebounds and 17.7 percent of the available boards. Since rebounding often translates to the pros, this bodes very well for Markieff, who edged out his twin for the Big 12 PER lead. According to StatSheet, Markieff excelled in true shooting percentage as well, shooting 61.1 percent two years ago and 64.1 percent last year when he ranked second in the Big 12.
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On the flip side of this ValleyoftheSuns favorite Tristan Thompson grabbed about half as many defensive boards as Markieff, according to Hollinger’s stats, with a 12.8 DRR. Thompson is known as a quality rebounder due to his superb work on the offensive boards (12.6 ORR) but it concerns me that his teammate Jordan Hamilton was a much better defensive rebounder (17.5 DRR).
Thompson’s PAWS40 of 8.1 is second worst among the DraftExpress projected lottery picks. I’ve been high on Thompson in recent days, but it’s disconcerting that he grabbed defensive rebounds at a Robin Lopez-esque rate in college, and his 53.6 true shooting percentage does not exactly impress.
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Advanced stats and Jimmer
But the PAWS40 metric isn’t so kind to him with Jimmer scoring a 9.3 to place him outside the top five in point guards and in the bottom third of the top 12 DraftExpress prospects.
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His career pure point rating of minus 0.2 for his BYU career and minus 1.8 last year are not what a team should want out of its point guard of the future.
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Considering Jimmer averaged 28.9 points per game last season, he seems like an obvious candidate to be drafted higher than he should, especially when factoring in Jimmermania and the emotional appeal to drafting a player like him. Therefore, the Suns could likely find better value at 13 than Jimmer.
I also thought this was interesting analysis from Oliver and Newmann on TrueHoop:
Superficially, Fredette’s scoring volume has inflated his value to the point where he may be a lottery pick. His ceiling is lower than others because of his age, and his ability to develop into a passer is in question. When evaluating the entire package, Fredette projects better to the NBA as a late first-round or early second-round pick, given his one specialty skill. That way, he can begin to carve out a career as a designated shooter, with a chance to improve his overall game
http://espn.go.com/blog/TrueHoop/post/_/id/30321/will-jimmers-skills-translate-to-next-level
Again, you should read the whole article...they talk about how he compares to Steph Curry and Nash, and it's rather unfavorable.
Damn it....now I'm more confused than before. What do you guys think?
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Markieff Morris descriptions sound a lot like Drew Gooden to me. But I really just don’t know.
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
Drew Gooden was a pretty good player. I’d be perfectly happy with that.
by BringBackBarkley17 on Jun 19, 2011 5:24 PM MST up reply actions
lol. Drew would be devastated to read this comment from you.
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
lol. He’s still not that bad, on offense at least.
by BringBackBarkley17 on Jun 20, 2011 10:56 AM MST up reply actions
I was told Thompson didn't get as many defensive rebounds because they played zone.
He’s a good offensive rebounder though. I remember when we drafted Lopez and freaking out when I saw he only averaged like 5.6 rebounds per game.
Don't trade Dudley!
He also doesn’t have strong fundamentals. He gest the offensive boards via motor and quickness. He has lapses on the other end though and sometimes gets caught staring instead of getting position.
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I think Markieff looks like a big
He plays like a 4/5, and seems to want to be a big. I’m not sure I can say the same for almost any other college grad outside Faried.
DWIll, Marcus Moris, Tristan Thompson and even Nikola Vucevic are guys that aren’t prototypical bigs. Being a tough, rebounding defender who doesn’t want to take a 3 pointer is frowned upon lately, but you still need at least one tough guy inside. Markieff and Faried look the two best at that of the American prospects.
Ok
This warmed me up to markieff a little. Sounds like he could be solid player. His skills seem like they might transfer to the NBA better than his brother. Maybe this is a case of us getting a better brother. Put him with Gortat and we may have a good rebounding front. Plus both play better than average defense. This would mean we need a scorer at the 2 or else steve be playing 24 seconds or more (tsom). As in they need more than 24 seconds to get their shot of.
by Suns Fan For Life on Jun 19, 2011 8:43 PM MST reply actions
If we do draft a Morris, I think Markieff would be a better fit. Probably won’t be either, but you never know.
by BringBackBarkley17 on Jun 19, 2011 11:45 PM MST up reply actions
why?
The offence has always been:
1. Give Nash The Ball.
2. Set a screen at the elbow
3. Everyone run to an open space.
4. Wait for Nash to hit someone who is wide open.
5. Repeat if necessary.
How would that change? We’ve been the 7 to 14 second suns for a while – we have a terrible fast break, and have since Marion left.
6. Amare noticed there's less than 11 seconds on the shotclock,
and decides to go 1 on 1.
We could really use somebody to do this on our present team. What Nash does, while great, is slow developing, and not a great option for situations where the shot clock becomes a factor.
Bismack Biyombo or Bust!!!
We could indeed
As could half the NBA. But Amar’e wasn’t that great a 1 on 1 player anyway – that had always been the knock on him, in that he was made by Nash. But even as time expires, we have so many shooters, that pick and rolls inevitably end up
Really, we are not going to find that guy in the draft. We’re just not, so I figure we are better taking someone who can play a defined role.
Were we watching the same Amare?
The guy was a beast on the post, a great faceup shooter, and almost certain to draw FT’s if you gave him any chance to drive to the basket.
Bismack Biyombo or Bust!!!
He wasn't a one one one player
He played mostly off Nash. Like I said, that was the rap.
Amar’e was at his best finishing on the PnR in space. So maybe we were watching different players! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylcg0vFR_Cg shows most of his top plays moving in space (or blocking shots – odd, I never think of him as a shot blocker).
He's a pretty good 1-on-1 player.
He’s not much of a post threat, but he’s a great face-up player.
You’re right saying he was at his best as the roll man, but he’s far from a stiff by himself. If you watched the post All-Star game stretch when Amar’e really got going, we were dumping the ball donw to him a lot around the basket and letting him close games out.
Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!
Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl XLV Champions!!!!
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He's not bad
By no means! Watch the top ten list tho, and the players he beats of the dribble were Zydrunas and Blake Griffin.
He’s no stiff, no way, but we’ve never really had an offensive set that didn’t include a lot of screens, which is why I don’t by the whole “need a player who can create his own shot” stuff. We create plenty of good shots, we always have.
What we need is a 4 who can defend and board so Frye can go back to being a 3 point bomber, and when Gortat sits we have at least one big who plays big, not a SF like big (which both Hak and Frye are – and why they should NEVER play at the same time at 4 and 5).
The benifit of a guy who can create his own shot or score is that he can get to the line.
We really need a guy who can get to the line. Amar’e could get to the line and during late game situations, that really helped us to close out games because he could draw fouls and hit some free throws. We didn’t have a guy like that last year which is why we failed to close out games.
Don't trade Dudley!
Yes.
You say we can always score, but that wasn’t true last year. Anytime Steve took a seat it seemed like the team just couldn’t put the ball in the basket. And like Beav said, our normally efficient offense didn’t always work late in games.
Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!
Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl XLV Champions!!!!
I also edit things at Ridiculous Upside. Check it out.
People seem to forget
that this was also true the year before, when our bench was so vaunted.
It was that bench’s defense that allowed them to extend leads and climb back into games.
Bismack Biyombo or Bust!!!
Amar'e was pretty good without Nash. The guy is a pretty good scorer, he's just no Kobe.
Don't trade Dudley!
He's way better than Kobe as a pure scorer
Kobe uses 35% of his team’s possessions to generate his stats, and his shooting % is something around 44%.
STAT got about the same points last year with way less possessions, and at a much higher efficiency. And that was without Nash.
As a roll man – let’s just say that he’s one of the few players in the history of the game that commands a double team when he DOESN’T have the ball.
Bismack Biyombo or Bust!!!
Well, most Big-men tend to be the more efficent scorers as their shots are closer to the hoop.
Yea, it takes 3 guys to shut down Amar’e and that doesn’t always work.
Don't trade Dudley!
If we keep relying on that then Nash will break down earlier.
I agree though. That in some ways we have Nash and can interchange alot of the pieces ans still be effective. That is one of the reasons Markief could work for us. He could score 10-12 points with Nash passes and putbacks. His strengths are our weaknesses
by Suns Fan For Life on Jun 20, 2011 9:43 AM MST up reply actions
Both of you guys make great points.
Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!
Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl XLV Champions!!!!
I also edit things at Ridiculous Upside. Check it out.
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