This is a really eye-opening piece from ValleyoftheSuns.com. You should definitely read the whole thing(at the link), but here are some excerpts:
The guy who immediately sticks out to me is Markieff Morris, who ranks second among power forwards with a 13.5 PAWS40 behind only Kenneth Faried, the small school product whose 17.2 score laps the field.
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What impresses me most about Markieff is his stellar defensive rebound rate. He corralled 24.4 percent of the available defensive rebounds and 17.7 percent of the available boards. Since rebounding often translates to the pros, this bodes very well for Markieff, who edged out his twin for the Big 12 PER lead. According to StatSheet, Markieff excelled in true shooting percentage as well, shooting 61.1 percent two years ago and 64.1 percent last year when he ranked second in the Big 12.
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On the flip side of this ValleyoftheSuns favorite Tristan Thompson grabbed about half as many defensive boards as Markieff, according to Hollinger’s stats, with a 12.8 DRR. Thompson is known as a quality rebounder due to his superb work on the offensive boards (12.6 ORR) but it concerns me that his teammate Jordan Hamilton was a much better defensive rebounder (17.5 DRR).
Thompson’s PAWS40 of 8.1 is second worst among the DraftExpress projected lottery picks. I’ve been high on Thompson in recent days, but it’s disconcerting that he grabbed defensive rebounds at a Robin Lopez-esque rate in college, and his 53.6 true shooting percentage does not exactly impress.
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Advanced stats and Jimmer
But the PAWS40 metric isn’t so kind to him with Jimmer scoring a 9.3 to place him outside the top five in point guards and in the bottom third of the top 12 DraftExpress prospects.
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His career pure point rating of minus 0.2 for his BYU career and minus 1.8 last year are not what a team should want out of its point guard of the future.
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Considering Jimmer averaged 28.9 points per game last season, he seems like an obvious candidate to be drafted higher than he should, especially when factoring in Jimmermania and the emotional appeal to drafting a player like him. Therefore, the Suns could likely find better value at 13 than Jimmer.
I also thought this was interesting analysis from Oliver and Newmann on TrueHoop:
Superficially, Fredette’s scoring volume has inflated his value to the point where he may be a lottery pick. His ceiling is lower than others because of his age, and his ability to develop into a passer is in question. When evaluating the entire package, Fredette projects better to the NBA as a late first-round or early second-round pick, given his one specialty skill. That way, he can begin to carve out a career as a designated shooter, with a chance to improve his overall game
http://espn.go.com/blog/TrueHoop/post/_/id/30321/will-jimmers-skills-translate-to-next-level
Again, you should read the whole article...they talk about how he compares to Steph Curry and Nash, and it's rather unfavorable.
Damn it....now I'm more confused than before. What do you guys think?
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