SB Nation Arizona Editor's Pick
What is Gortat's Ceiling?
by Suns Fan For Life on Jun 5, 2011 3:33 PM MST
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PrintPeople have argued that he is nowhere near an all-star or a top five center. Let's start with the first one.
The only centers who played in the All-star game last year were Dwight Howard, Al Horford, and Tim Duncan. Now, considering that 2 of those are PF's who get voted on as C's then there was one true center on the All Star team last year, and only one from the Western conference. We now that Duncan will make the AL-star game pretty much until he retires, so a center slot is easy for the taking. What would it take? If Gortat averaged 16pts 11rbds 1.5 blocks and shot 56% that could easily get him. All of these are very reasonable numbers for him.
Now on to the next subject. Does Gortat have the potential to be a top 5 center. We can take a the numbers mentioned in the last paragraph.16 points would have made him 6th for centers behind Dwight, Bargnani (a center seriously), Lopez, Jefferson, and Lee (see Bargnani comment). He would be ahead of notable players Horford, Nene, Duncan, Frye (yes he was the 9th leading scorer for a center), and Hibbert to round out the top ten. Pretty good. 11 boards would place him 2nd behind only Howard and ahead of, you guessed it, everyone else. 1.5 blocks would place him 11th (this is a little low and could be improved on, but he is more of a stallwart defender than a fashy one). 3rd in fg% which is right where he was last year.
Tell me all that does not put him potentially in the All-star game and maybe a top 5 center or better. Especially when Horford, Bargnani, and Lee are really considered PF's. Again these are projections (pretty realistic if you factor hell be getting 35+ minutes a game). But there has been a lot of talk that he will never be a an all-star or his ceiling really is not that high. The numbers tell a little different story and he only has room to grow. Now, the last time I checked a top five player at any position was considered a star, and even more so can be said of a center, which is the real anchor of a team on the defensive end. Anyway, I thought I would just through this out for debate. Have at it
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If he averages a double double and if the Suns are at least a top 4 seed by all-star break, he and Kevin Love will likely be the two centers representing the west.
Don't trade Dudley!
Than again, Chris Kaman made an all-star team playing for a terrible Clippers team. Wierd...
Here’s what SBnaton has to say about his potential, “All-round quality center with star tools.”
Don't trade Dudley!
Chris Kaman is horrible in advanced stats
Gortat is really quite good, but it shows better in his advanced stats than in his boxscore line
Suns v Spurs in the 1st round. Make this happen.
His ceiling?
The sun, the moon and the stars… :))
I think he averaged 14 and 10 over the last 40-something games this season
And there was exactly one center in the league that averaged better numbers over that stretch, Dwight Howard. Keep in mind Gortat was still coming of the bench then.
His stats were rising all season long, he topped out at 15 points and 11 rebounds in the last 11 games of the season (basically all his games since officially making the starting line-up). And that’s despite having a couple single digit rebounding nights in the games after Frye came back from injury and forgot how to box out.
Bench doesn't matter
Minutes do.
In fact, you could argue being on the bench is a BENEFIT, as you get to battle Anderson / Bass instead of Howard.
Really?
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gortama01/gamelog/2011/ yep – 0:32:50 vs :26:40 as a bench player. Interesting game log…
53 minutes off the bench vs Lakers
That’s gotta be close to some sort of record.
Of course not counting games where the coach simply had no one to substitute like that one GSW game when they only had 5 players.
That was a great game
Loved that one!
If Gortat plays 36 minutes at current rates, he’ll average 15 and 11 – that’s pretty awesome!
Better version of Wilt Chamberlain
Founder of the Coalition to Light Vince Carter On Fire (CTLVCOF)
RIP Seasons of Discontent
Can't score
If you had said Bill Rusell, I’d have agreed with you :P
The question of ceiling is less important...
Than the question of lower bounds, i.e. how good can he be AT WORST?
As a great rebounder (11.3 per 36 last year, 11.6 career) and a very good defender, he will always produce something of value to a team. He is the big equivalent of a three point shooter, in that that help even when they aren’t a primary offensive star.
A team needs to cover all bases, and can only have so many scorers. Gortat is a star without being a massive scorer, and that is fairly rare.
by MMotherwell on Jun 5, 2011 7:11 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
Gortat improved greatly on the offensive end after he earned the lion's share of the minutes.
He really gelled with Steve and and his shooting touch became much better. But his offense still relies almost entirely on Steve. Gortat has the numbers playing with the most big-man friendly PG in the league. But what is his actual talent level? How much will he be able to produce without Steve? Can he be the anchor for us down low for the rest of his career, or will he turn back into a Tyson Chandler-type big man?
Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!
Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl XLV Champions!!!!
I also edit things at Ridiculous Upside. Check it out.
What's wrong with Chandler?
He’s awesome!
Gortat is developing a nice 15-17 footer, but besides that, there are several areas of basketball beyond scoring that matter (greatly). Gortat is a plus in:
1. Rebounding
2. Defending
3. Blocking shots.
Most importantly, in the modern NBA, a center must be able to defend the high pick and roll with the PG, a play every team runs and that is hard to stop, as it requires athleticism in the center. That is what killed us when we had Shaq.
Gortat is superb in that situation, being able to show and recover well, and that is massive.
He may not be a “star” in the scoring stakes, but he is a rugged, defensive player who can rebound, finish a pick’n roll and can defend the PnR on the other end. Where that places him in the NBA is up for personal debate, but is plenty good if you ask me.
good points
and aren’t most center offense predicated on the guards getting them the the ball down low…how many centers today can create their own shot
"Maybe I’m old school," Nash said, "but I signed a contract to play here and I want to honor it. I feel like I owe it to my teammates and the city and everybody to keep battling until they tell me it’s time to go." STEVE (God of Basketball) NASH
people fail to realize
that gortat didnt start playing basketball till he was 18, which compared to most NBA players is WAY late. Which goes to show that he is still very much developing and is probably only at half is full potential. I think he is the 2nd best center in the NBA behind Howard…..
Not sure about 2nd best, but definitely top 5. I agree with you that he is still developing. I think he’s going to be great next year. We better keep him. I’d rather trade Nash than Gortat.
by BringBackBarkley17 on Jun 5, 2011 10:19 PM MST up reply actions
I’d rather trade Nash than Gortat.
I don’t know about that. we’ll never get equal value back for Nash, as with Gortat maybe. if only Lopez hadn’t fallen off so much one of them would be a great trade asset.
"Maybe I’m old school," Nash said, "but I signed a contract to play here and I want to honor it. I feel like I owe it to my teammates and the city and everybody to keep battling until they tell me it’s time to go." STEVE (God of Basketball) NASH
Another man's floor?
But I digress….
It’s hard to guess Gortat’s ceiling because of the brevity of his career and especially his current level of play. There has been a multitude of players who have failed to reach their potential, regressed, or were otherwise thwarted through injury, lack of motivation, personal demons, etc.
Gortat is a somewhat unusual case because he is pretty close to a 27 year old sophomore. Unfortunately, for every Kurt Warner miracle there are a plethora of Len Bias tragedies.
The dominant center is an endangered (extinct) species in the NBA these days, so a 15/11 performer could vie for elite status in the current structure. While I don’t think that Gortat can ever ascend to the status of an elite big man in the annals of NBA history, he could probably be in the mix at the top of the motley crew of present day “big” men.
Lobbing salvos at a player’s ceiling is a very ambiguous way of looking at things. So many variables can obstruct a player from reaching his potential….
Did Shaq reach his ceiilng? Many people would say no….
Let me be unequivocal with my question -
Over/under on career all-star appearances for Gortat – 2.
What says you?
Never confuse activity with achievement.
by Jim Coughenour on Jun 5, 2011 10:57 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
All-star appearances? ECK!
All star appearances are a horrible measure. They take votes, which is why Yao and McGrady did well for so long as starters, and Duncan made it last year, and Josh Smith missed out last year. And two words: Magloire, Jamal.
How about we pick some other measure, one that matters. Some ideas:
Over under on years he averages 15/10?
Over under on years he averages 1.5 blocks?
Over under on years he is a top ten big (4 or 5)?
Or a hybrid metric like years he averages over .200 WP48 (http://nerdnumbers.com/seasons)?
I agree AS is a horrible measure, because for him to make the all-star team, we have to win. He can be the best center in the league and won’t be in the all-star game if we don’t win.
by BringBackBarkley17 on Jun 6, 2011 6:33 PM MST up reply actions
Generally
the team with the best center in the league isn’t horrible for stretches of years.
Never confuse activity with achievement.
by Jim Coughenour on Jun 8, 2011 10:24 PM MST up reply actions
I kind of like my all-star idea.
Looking just at numbers is no better than all-star appearances. Generally they get it pretty close. Only starters are voted. While there are definitely snubs, a consistently deserving player isn’t going to get left off for his whole career.
Mutombo made 8 despite only meeting your 15/10 requirement once and he was competing against the likes of Olajuwon and Robinson.
Last year Monta Ellis averaged 24.1 ppg and 5.6 apg. That’s 29.7 combined.
Chris Paul only averaged 15.8 ppg and 9.8 apg. That’s only 25.6 for him.
That must mean that Ellis is about 15% better than Paul. No way anyone would ever want Paul more than Ellis.
Top ten big is too open to interpretation and opinion. According to some, he’s already left that in the dust. All-star appearances are like top 5-6 big, except picked by a more neutral and respected source than a fanboard.
PER and other statistical manipulations can be made to show that Hakim Warrick is ridiculously more valuable than Grant Hill. They are generally good guidelines but are by no means an absolute measure.
The eyeball test and je ne sais quoi are important. Intangibles like post presence,court awareness, leadership, basketball IQ, etc. matter.
Never confuse activity with achievement.
by Jim Coughenour on Jun 8, 2011 10:50 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Ugh, this is happening way too often.
But then again, it is kind of fun to agree with you now and then.
Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!
Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl XLV Champions!!!!
I also edit things at Ridiculous Upside. Check it out.
Just because some of my opinions are unpopular
doesn’t make them wrong.
Next time we disagree I won’t necessarily be right, either.
It is hard to make statements or have conviction about broad topics with infallible exactitude.
Never confuse activity with achievement.
by Jim Coughenour on Jun 8, 2011 11:07 PM MST up reply actions
Numbers work the best because...
A player can control there own numbers. No one can control all star appearances.
If you think that a mid-season vote is a stronger measure of what a player produces than his actual numbers, I’ll have agree to disagree, because I think numbers can tell us a great deal, and believe two things:
1. Anything analysis starts with an explanation FROM numbers. Not OF numbers, but from numbers. For example, Carmelo Anthony has bad numbers, like a career .459 shooting percentage, and a career .479 eFG% (That accounts for 3s being worth 1.5 times 2s). To justify Carmelo being a star, you need to explain away those numbers.
2. This XKCD comic is the truest thing ever produced about sports:
xkcd is the truth
Steve Nash, the league's MVP, is a longhaired Canadian who spoke out against the war in Iraq and reads The Communist Manifesto. Quentin Richardson declared after a game-winning shot that it "was like Hamlet. It was a suspense thriller, and I killed them at the end." Amare Stoudemire, when asked to comment on a 22-point third quarter against the Kings, said, "I've got a tendency to jump over some guys' heads and throw it down."
That's fine.
It sounds like you put a lot more emphasis on numbers to assign value or worth to players than I do.
I believe that numbers are only one part of an effective player analysis. Intangibles have to be included much in the same way that immeasurables factor into scouting instead of just using vertical leap and wingspan as the end all be all.
Players and coaches recognize other good players and coaches. Good players who deserve to make all-star teams make all-star teams. I would tend to lend more credibility to the opinion of a head coach in the NBA than I do to yours (notice that I didn’t preface that by typing no offense because that would mean I was about to write something offensive). :)
Mid-season vote? I don’t understand what you’re talking about… that’s just for starters – not to mention there is usually an injury or two which gives even more leverage to make sure deserving players are selected. I don’t think I’m quite astute or perspicuous enough to comprehend your argument….
It’s ok for us to disagree. I often find it a fascinating aspect of human nature that people can look at the same situations and draw so many completely contrasting viewpoints. I’m not saying that the all-star selection theory is undeniably the best measuring stick either. That was just something that I propounded on the spur of the moment.
I just think it’s a better measure than the means of analysis you suggested.
You can use your method and I will keep an eye on mine. Let’s compare notes in five years.
Never confuse activity with achievement.
by Jim Coughenour on Jun 9, 2011 12:12 PM MST up reply actions
I agree, MM. I think Jim has a point that they usually get it roughly right, but every year, several worthy candidates are left off. If someone says they are not a good player because they are not an All-Star, I disagree.
by BringBackBarkley17 on Jun 9, 2011 1:37 PM MST up reply actions
On a one year basis I would agree with that statement,
but over the course of a career a player won’t be worthy 12 times and get snubbed every year…..
My point is based on a career. (The Gortat over/under I proposed was for his career)
Aldridge, for instance, was arguably deserving this year. This would be a good example that supports your statement.
My assertion is that if Aldridge continues to play at a high level for the rest of his career, he’s going to make a couple all-star squads.
Never confuse activity with achievement.
by Jim Coughenour on Jun 9, 2011 1:53 PM MST up reply actions
Under is definitely the safer bet
If the over/under was set at .5, I still might say under is safer.
Re-sign BAMF.
agreed, cuz we wont win enough the next few years.
by BringBackBarkley17 on Jun 6, 2011 6:33 PM MST up reply actions
Are u guys aware that the last 2 guys we discussed their CEILINGs didn't turn ont well (as in Dragic and Lopez)
Its decision time;
Lets win as much as we need to at least make the playoffs OR suck so bad we get a top 5 pick... i doubt the latter will be possible as some other teams (min, lac etc) made the decision earlier than us...
by jatrex4suns on Jun 6, 2011 1:42 AM MST via mobile reply actions
Well, to be frank, both were headcases and outside of a select few games, they consitently sucked
Gortat’s worst games came when he joined the team. Which makes sense since he didn’t know jack about the offense or defensive rotations then. After that he steadily got better.
On the other hand Dragic had long stretches of suckage interspersed with a few games of pure magic.
And RoLo… Well, was he ever really that good as a center? This is a guy that in three years of playing here (most of that time as a starter) only had 7 regular season games and 0 (yes, ZERO) playoff games with double digit rebounds. That’s 7 out of a 106 total aka. turrible.
Gortat had 23 double-doubles in 53 games for us. And he played =<15 minutes in 15 of those games. So yeah, I think we can safely discuss “ceilings” in his case, at least a little bit.
Yep.
RoLo is a foreveralone nerd and Dragic is homesick 95% of the time. What else would you call those guys?
They’re getting paid millions to play basketball for chrissakes, it’s really not that complicated.
by rzyn on Jun 6, 2011 9:05 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
And since I don't mean to be a dick, they could be the best dudes ever, really.
But they sure as hell don’t look like that on the court.
You're being a bit unfair in your descriptions.
Both had stretches where they played very well. It wasn’t all suck and then the SAS game for Dragic. And in those 106 games, how many mpg did Robin average? IIRC he was basically splitting time with Channing.
But your point does stand that this seems a little different. But his point is also rue that you can’t count your chickens before they hatch.
Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!
Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl XLV Champions!!!!
I also edit things at Ridiculous Upside. Check it out.
Niether Dragic nor Lopez have dwealt with adversity very well. They're kind of soft and mentally fragile.
Gortat struggled when he first got here, but turned around and now he’s becoming a leader. The leadership part is big, people fell to mention that. He’s played better than Lopez ever has for us too and has done it without any real inside help.
Don't trade Dudley!
I really think Lopez has a higher potential than Gortat
His 2 problems are;
1. Injury, which aint his fault and
2. Maturity, which isn’t uncommon conridering his age.
Which is why i’m against trading him just yet. If he got better (health), and we got a good 4, he would play as good as he did with Amar’e if öt better, while gradually growing into his own
Its decision time;
Lets win as much as we need to at least make the playoffs OR suck so bad we get a top 5 pick... i doubt the latter will be possible as some other teams (min, lac etc) made the decision earlier than us...
by jatrex4suns on Jun 6, 2011 12:36 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
I mostly agree...
While I agree that Lopez is not being characterized fairly. He has tremendous potential. His injury stopped that. Plus I think, he plays better with a dominant PF and learns better from others as he had from Shaq and probably now from Gortat as well.
Hence if we had a good PF, he would play much better or he would play great with Kevin Love or in Utah, Atlanta – teams that are good tragets for trading him. But we must get value to trade him.
we’ll see….but let me ask you this: would you take Gortat over these guys if you could just magically swap them, money not an option:
Tyson Chandler
Greg Oden
DeAndre Jordan
DeMarcus Cousins
Sam Dalembert
Emeka Okafor
Andrew Bogut
Kendrick Perkins
Nene
Andrew Bynum
Al Jefferson
JaVale McGee
Omer Asik
Jason Collins (just kidding)
I think he’s about in the middle of this pack which makes him an average center. Yes, he put up better numbers than a lot of those guys but if you put JaVale McGee next to Steve Nash he’d score 20ppg.
Raising Arizona Sports at SB Nation Arizona twitter: @sethpo
once again
let me say that I like Gortat a LOT and love his leadership and character and personality…athletically he’s on the lower end of average when you mix together size, speed and hops. Skill-wise, he’s at best average.
Also forgot Hibbert, Greg Monroe and Marc Gasol on that list.
I love having Gortat and on the right team, with the right players around him he’s a valuable role player. If you expect him to lift a team any more than that….sorry
Raising Arizona Sports at SB Nation Arizona twitter: @sethpo
by Seth Pollack on Jun 6, 2011 12:57 PM MST up reply actions
Seth swoops in to save the day!
This is kind of what I was getting at. Gortat is good, but we are over-rating him a bit. While a plus defender and rebounder, he’s not all that special on that end. He’s very good, but he can’t control the game in those areas. And her certainly isn’t an offensive juggernaut. His skills improved throughout the season, but most of those skills developed were about finishing Steve’s passes. He still doesn’t have a post game, and while his jumper is much better it still needs work.
I love Gortat, but just becaus ehe’s better than anything we’ve had doesn’t mean he’s a star compared to the rest of the league.
Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!
Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl XLV Champions!!!!
I also edit things at Ridiculous Upside. Check it out.
this
While a plus defender and rebounder, he’s not all that special on that end. He’s very good, but he can’t control the game in those areas.
There are many times when numbers are misleading…
Raising Arizona Sports at SB Nation Arizona twitter: @sethpo
Like when?
I worked as a croupier at a casino, and the biggest losers constantly deluded themselves with the logic that they could “beat the numbers”.
The NBA game, for a FO, is a battle between potential and production. Kevin Love is not as good as Blake athletically, but he certainly produces at a similar level, if not more.
Many of the past greats were like that as well, starting and ending with Larry Bird. Has there ever been a less convincing human specimen to play SF? He was 6’9", 225. Was slow. Couldn’t jump. Couldn’t even Dunk. Would have rated dead last in the combine athletically.
And yet… he’s Larry Legend – who controlled games with skill and will, who produced more out of limited natural gifts than anyone, well, ever.
Gortat ‘s theoretical potential is low. Marion was a better Athlete. Amar’e better as an athlete and finisher.
But Gortat produces, and produces like a player at his position needs to (rebounding, defense). If he plays 36 minutes next year, and keeps to his performance from last year, he’s a 15.8 and 11.3 player, with 1.2 assists and 1.5 blocks.
That’s solid production, and that assumes that we run no more plays for him, which scoring per game is a merely a function of (more shots equals more points, in other words).
If he plays 36 minutes, gets 2 more shots per 36, he’ll be a 17 and 11 player. Where would people rank him then?
Except who says he duplicates his per-36 minute numbers when he actually plays 36 minutes?
You can’t pencil him in for those numbers. You have to factor in fatigue and changing defenses.
Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!
Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl XLV Champions!!!!
I also edit things at Ridiculous Upside. Check it out.
So again, how does anyone project anything?
If the argument is “He won’t do as well because of fatigue” that isn’t the end of the discussion, but merely a pitstop on the journey. What is the adjustment? What does fatigue, in practical terms, equate to? And what numbers do we adjust from to get to a guesstimate?
Not to be a smart arse, but you CAN pencil in the per 36 numbers, because that is exactly what the expression means. To pencil something in means “put in something that is a best guess that we can modify later”, e.g. “I’ll pencil you in for 3pm, and if things change you can let me know”
The penciled in numbers, the best guess based upon evidence, is 15.8 and 11.3 per 36 minutes.
But maybe that seems a little simplistic, and we need more evidence. I’m cool with that. Here are Gortat’s Suns numbers:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gortama01.html
Here is a spreadsheet I did of the numbers.
Here are the data points:
Raw Suns Stats: 55 games, 29. minutes, 13.0 points & 9.3 rebounds
His Starter numbers: 12 , 33:01, 14.83 & 10.83
His Bench numbers: 26, 24:23, 10.22 & 7.67 rebounds
Overall per 36 minutes: 15.8 points & 11.3 rebounds.
Starter numbers per 36: 16.39 & 11.97
Bench numbers per 36: 15.50 & 11.02
Those are awfully similar numbers, and certainly seem to indicate, to me at least, that Gortat, with zero improvement, can be penciled in for 33 minutes, 15 points and 11 boards. He can perform at that level (he has when given a shot already), and that seems the minutes Gentry is comfortable with.
Now, that is merely what he DID. In projecting what he will DO, there are several factors to consider:
1. How many minutes Gentry will play him.
2. Can he sustain performance (fatigue)?
3. Will he improve or regress?
4. If so, in what facets (e.g. better points, less boards)?
IMHO, given that any numbers any of us pick are going to be wrong, the questions above need to be answered in the context of last seasons numbers.
I’m going to make the predictions:
1. Gortat will be played 33 minutes.
2. He will rebound at roughly the same.
3. He will be featured in the PnR more, and increase his shots taken.
4 He will shoot a slightly lower percentage as he takes more 15-17 footers – but the drop will be small, and he will still shoot above .500
5. As a consequence of more shot attempts, he’ll score more
6. As he is featured more, he will increase his assists slightly.
7. He will block shots closer to his career average than his Suns average.
8. He will collect steals at his career rate.
Based on that, I am going with:
17 points, 11 rebs, .520 fg%, 2 assists, 1.5 blocks and .6 steals.
That’s my guesstimate. I am assuming quite a lot, but have stated my assumptions, and I admit fully that I could very well be wrong. But one has to base numbers on something.
Can you supply some way to guestimate the numbers that you believe work, and show your working? I think that will provide a valuable in sight into the way we all think, and perhaps the working will help m refine my guesstimate.
Seth with the hate as usual <3
I guess Gortat averaging 15 and 10 in both March and April while we were facing one of the toughest schedules in the league was a total fluke. Obviously Earl Barron and Jarron Collins could do that with Steve. And they did! Remember all those double doubles Barron had? Man, good times… Nash can make one of those cardboard cutouts score double digits off the pick an roll, the roller doesn’t matter on there at all. In fact, we could probably run a Dudley Nash pick and roll. Dudz would get so man wide open dunks off that!
It’s clear Gortat is turrible, I mean, he can’t finish at the rim at all! Him having the 8th highest EFG% in the whole league is all Nash. Remember, on every single pass from Nash he was wide open at the rim! WIDE OPEN! Obviously he should have lead the league at 100%!
And defensive rebounding %? 7th in the league in that? Clearly, that’s because Channing Frye spead the floor so much for him! You say that’s on offense? I say Channing is too dangerous to be left alone even when he’s defending! Gotta double him offensively!
We should trade him right for whatever we get, probably a late secound rounder. Or maybe we can pry Brendan Haywood away from the Mavs if we give them Nash and throw in Gortat?! Oh man he’d be amazing next season playing with Frye! Our frontcourt would be DOMINATE.
Eh Seth brings the hate sometimes but that was pretty damn well reasoned if you ask me.
Founder of the Coalition to Light Vince Carter On Fire (CTLVCOF)
RIP Seasons of Discontent
Aw.
XOXO.
Founder of the Coalition to Light Vince Carter On Fire (CTLVCOF)
RIP Seasons of Discontent
A big resounding meh
athletically he’s on the lower end of average when you mix together size, speed and hops
Clearly
this never happened
LOL LOL LOL.
Can’t believe he got one over on T-Griff like that. I keep trying to find the video of T-Griff getting him back with a monster jam. Anyone know where that is?
Founder of the Coalition to Light Vince Carter On Fire (CTLVCOF)
RIP Seasons of Discontent
Couldn't find the video but I found this..
http://espn.go.com/nba/playbyplay?gameId=291104019&period=4
2:16 – Marcin Gortat traveling [93-119]
2:05 – Taylor Griffin makes layup (Alando Tucker assists) [95-119]
Apparently after Taylor Griffin forces a turnover from Gortat on one end, he burns him on the other with a backdoor cut and a beautiful up and under layup of an amazing feed from Alando Tucker…
At least thats what I read from that.
Re-sign BAMF.
...
How long did it take you to find that? Or did you have it bookmarked for just such an occasion?
Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!
Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl XLV Champions!!!!
I also edit things at Ridiculous Upside. Check it out.
Well he only played in 8 games
And made 4 total field goals… So it wasn’t to hard.
But yes I have it bookmarked as well.
Re-sign BAMF.
I found Zapruder film footage of one of the baskets
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4eNiOrEhntk
Believe this was when the Suns put like 148 on Minnesota.
Founder of the Coalition to Light Vince Carter On Fire (CTLVCOF)
RIP Seasons of Discontent
Yeah, the argument over Gortat's athleticism has to be one of the strangest topics I've seen on this site.
I don’t know why it’s so strange to me…maybe because I see Gortat’s athleticism as being so very apparent. Or, maybe because Seth is so knowledgeable about all things Suns and basketball that he makes me question my own eyes…and no I’m not being sarcastic! We’ve gone over this before though, so this is nothing new.
I think it all comes down to definition…My personal definition of athleticism includes a mixture of speed, quickness, agility, strength, balance, body control, and jumping ability. In my mind, an “athletic” player may or may not exhibit all of these traits at the highest level, but they should be gifted in the majority of them. For instance, I’ve always viewed Nash as athletic even though he’s not the fastest player, or the highest jumper. But his quickness, agility, body control, and balance are all elite.
I suppose that may be the difference of opinion over Gortat. He does not have an elite vertical even for a big man, but I do believe he more than makes up for that with his agility, quickness, strength, and body-control. He also has pretty decent speed and jumping ability for a big man, just nothing all that exceptional. Either way, I suppose we just see it differently.
by 7footer on Jun 6, 2011 3:53 PM MST up reply actions 5 recs
Funny thing is, Gortat had some really nice measurements during his combine
Check this out:
http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-pre-draft-measurements.php?page=&year=All&source=All&sort2=DESC&draft=0&pos=5&sort=12
Higher max vert than friggin’ Amare, lol.
Of course he was about 20 pounds lighter back then, but still.
Sometimes those numbers don't translate to live game action.
From what I saw of him as a Sun, Gortat is not explosive at all and usually needs to be on the move to elevate much.
He’s definitely mobile for a big guy, but he’s not very explosive at all. Does that sound like a better description 7footer?
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I think you may be onto something...
Yes, that’s a terrific way to put it, and I believe most of us would agree with that. Gortat is definitely mobile, but much more finesse than explosive. I think we got used to Amare throwing it down on people in the pick and roll. Gortat glides to the basket nicely but will often finish with a layup rather than a thunderous jam.
That doesn’t mean that Gortat can’t be a force down low, only that his style of play is different than the Dwight Howards and Amares of the game.
by 7footer on Jun 6, 2011 8:58 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
and by the way
lower end of average in the NBA is pretty freaking awesome…but comparing him to his peers, he’s not there
Omaha is right, he can only elevate on the move and off one leg so for example, he’s not going to explode up for a put back or block. He’s fairly quick in straight line but I wouldn’t call him above average laterally. He does take good angles and plays good defense with his head (see Thomas, Kurt).
His foot work in the post is stiff and unnatural. He can probably add a few post moves with work but if he was a natural talent he’d have already shown us more. Some guys can dance when they first hear the music and some guys can learn the steps with a lot of practice.
He certainly doesn’t have long arms and isn’t all that bulky. So when you are putting him next to guys like DeAndre Jordan or even Sam Dalembert, he’s physically over matched.
and ONE MORE TIME
I like Marcin a lot. He makes up for what he doesn’t have with a good head and great will and desire. But I am not going to let that cloud the reality of what he is. And for whatever it’s worth, this is certainly my opinion but it is shared by others who are professional coaches and talent evaluators.
Raising Arizona Sports at SB Nation Arizona twitter: @sethpo
All of that could be said of Larry Bird
Gortat is NO Bird, but flaws are just a part of your ceiling. A bad three point shooter who never takes a three point shot may very well be a better, more productive player than a similarly talented player who takes 3s (see Smith, Josh 2008-09 vintage vs Smith, Josh 2009-10 vintage).
Marcin may not need a post game or explosive finishing to be a star. If he can get us 12 rebounds a game, he will be, and that’ll help cover every other big’s flaws. Frye plus dominant rebounding center isn’t terrible. And 12 rebs a game is only a slight uptick in his career average per 36, assuming Gentry gives him that many minutes.
He's a very good
rebounder for sure…I still think that stat is a bit overblown though. Consider that the Suns games are played at a higher pace so more missed shots available and also consider who he plays with.
Look at Marion’s rebounding numbers for example…they dropped off when he left.
Marcin was in the perfect system to maximize his numbers. Nothing wrong with that at all. He’s a good fit. But when you watch him play you see things like getting beat for offensive boards by bigger, longer centers who reach over him.
The point is that the numbers don’t reflect his full impact on the game which is very good but not “game changing”.
Raising Arizona Sports at SB Nation Arizona twitter: @sethpo
Exactly.
I’m glad I have an ally in this, as I was struggling to put my thoughts into words. You can not just look at numbers. You have to consider everything involved. Gortat is a very good player and he is in a great situation here in PHX to maximize his numbers. Consider his skills and limitations when looking at the numbers.
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Wait, so you guys are saying he's getting a lot of rebounds because of high pace?
Makes sense that more than a third of his 12+ rebound games were against such speed demon offenses as the Celtics (23rd in Pace), Hawks (27th), Bulls (22nd), Pistons (28th), Lakers (19th) and the Mavericks (19th).
Or wait, maybe he’s just a good rebounder? Nope, can’t be. That would make too much sense.
On CBSsports, some guy did a thing where he adjusted the stats with pace and it did make a difference, but not much.
I mean, Steve Nash would still get over 10+apg on another team that plays slower. It’s really about coaching style more than it is pace. Baron Davis averaged 8apg with the Warriors in 2005-06. When Nelson took over in 2006-2007, the “We Believe” Warriors became the fastest team in the league and Baron Davis still averaged 8apg.
Pace is overrated. Gortat would still get about as many rebounds as he does on a different team.
It seems like those who want Gortat to stay have been overrating him and that those who wouldn’t mind trading him for the 2nd pick have been underrating him.
I used to think that Gortat didn’t have all-star potential, but he proved me wrong. I can see that potential in him. He isn’t there yet, but he can get there. That doesn’t mean he will make an all-star team, it just means he’ll play like an all-star similar to J-Rich throughout his career.
However, he is no franchise player. I’m still not convinced that Gortat will be good enough in time to be the #2 guy Nash needs and I’m not sure he’ll ever be one. He seems best as a #3 guy like Odom is with the Lakers and Bosh is with the Heat, but not a #2. He can still prove me wrong though.
On the other hand, whoever the #2 pick is is unlikely to be a #2 on a decent- good team either.
The biggest knock on Gortat is actually his age. He’ll be 27, but as far as experience goes, next season is really like his 3rd year. Yet, people think he is a veteran big. He’s not a veteran big. He’s pretty mature, but as far as development goes, he’s behind due to his age because he only started playing basketball at 18.
The Suns aren’t going anywhere with Gortat as their 2nd best player and that’s even if he averages a double double next season. Don’t expect them to win a championship is what I’m saying.
Don't trade Dudley!
that’s a pretty fair post, Beavis.
by BringBackBarkley17 on Jun 8, 2011 8:02 PM MST up reply actions
That is just NOT true
Gortat’s WHOLE career he has averaged close to 12 boards per 36. His. Whole. Career. http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gortama01.html
In fact, last year he averaged UNDER his career average per 36 in rebounds (11.3 vs 11.6).
The point is that the numbers don’t reflect his full impact on the game which is very good but not "game changing".
That’s not an argument I personally subscribe to, because as the rebound example shows, our brains just aren’t built to track and measure consistently, but rather to remember highloghts.
But even if I did, that’s not the point at all as far as I am concerned. The question is what can he achieve? Gortat’s ceiling has to be either:
1. Somewhere above what he averaged last year – his best season so far or
2. Below what he averaged last season.
I think he WILL average more minutes, and as a consequence he will score more points, get more rebounds etc etc. His ceiling, IMHO, is somewhere between 15 and 10 and 22 and 12. That’s a player that can be solid on any team and, as a rebounding defending big, someone who can be useful in tandem with a ball hogging star.
That is specifically the ceiling I believe he has. What, exactly, is your projected ceiling?
I'm pretty sure that it doesn't make any sense
to say his ceiling is lower than what he’s already done. If he were 34, it would. But he’s 29.
Suns v Spurs in the 1st round. Make this happen.
Disagree completely. Our pace is not that fast anymore. We are practically always half court. We also give up a high shooting percentage to the other team, so there aren’t as many defensive boards to go around. Him doing it on our team is very impressive.
by BringBackBarkley17 on Jun 8, 2011 8:00 PM MST up reply actions
He has a 7’3"5 wingspan, longer than Bogut, Chandler, Noah. Easily middle of the pack as far as length goes for centers. Bogut has a 7’3 wingspan and is a top 3 shot blocker in the NBA, does that mean he block shots with magic since he’s not some daddy-long legs armed freak athlete? Besides, he’s not the shotblocking type, however, if the NBA had a stat for changed shots he’d be close to the top.
His footwork in the post is not great, but that same not great footwork is somehow very good on the pick and roll. There were countless times where he went around a defender that was perfectly set to block his path to the basket. Or avoided a charge. He does get blocked a little more than the average 6% at 9%, but other C’s that attempt as many shots as him do too (Nene → 9% at 7.5 FGA, Okafor →13% at 7.3 FGA, Noah → 14% at 8.4 FGA), simply because the defenses know what’s coming.
It’s obvious he lacks polish more than skill in the post. He can do the moves, he did a couple just this season for us but they looked stiff because he never did that up until now.
As far as his hops go, I have no idea what you’re talking about, he gets up as high as Chandler. He doesn’t have the inhuman hops of DeAndre Jordan but that kid weighs like 230 pounds at best. If you see hops as having head at the rim on every dunk then no, he won’t do that. But he’s certainly not on the “lower end of the average”. And he doesn’t have many putbacks because he’s our sole paint presence, do you really expect him to do putback dunks when usually both the opposing PF and C are in the paint boxing him out? When he gets the chance, he can throw one down no problem.
You think he’s not very skilled and barely average athletically… Then why the hell did so many teams want him in the off-season? How the hell does he get those points and rebounds? From your posts it seems like he’s somewhat better than Earl Barron, which is just not true. Just admit your seething hate for the guy and be done with it.
What I've learned from bright side, part 209
If you don’t agree with my views on a player, all of your opinions are SEETHING HATRED!
Steve Nash, the league's MVP, is a longhaired Canadian who spoke out against the war in Iraq and reads The Communist Manifesto. Quentin Richardson declared after a game-winning shot that it "was like Hamlet. It was a suspense thriller, and I killed them at the end." Amare Stoudemire, when asked to comment on a 22-point third quarter against the Kings, said, "I've got a tendency to jump over some guys' heads and throw it down."
This made me LOL
Founder of the Coalition to Light Vince Carter On Fire (CTLVCOF)
RIP Seasons of Discontent
by Scott Howard on Jun 8, 2011 12:17 PM MST up reply actions
I would like to see the source info for those wingspan numbers…
and ONCE AGAIN, I LIKE MARCIN GORTAT a lot. I’ve spent a lot of time with him talking on and off the record. I enjoy him personally and admire and respect everything about him. But I am not blinded by that either and from what I see on the court and from what I hear from others who evaluate talent for a living tell me this his ceiling is very good role player.
He’s a valuable player to many teams b/c teams need good role players AND stars. He’s a good role player. A very good role player. In end, we’ll just have to see how much impact he has over the next year or two. Good numbers on a bad team are historically a HORRIBLE way to judge a player’s worth.
Raising Arizona Sports at SB Nation Arizona twitter: @sethpo
in before "haters gonna hate"
Steve Nash, the league's MVP, is a longhaired Canadian who spoke out against the war in Iraq and reads The Communist Manifesto. Quentin Richardson declared after a game-winning shot that it "was like Hamlet. It was a suspense thriller, and I killed them at the end." Amare Stoudemire, when asked to comment on a 22-point third quarter against the Kings, said, "I've got a tendency to jump over some guys' heads and throw it down."
Just accept that he's a future All-NBA guy.
It’ll be easier.
Founder of the Coalition to Light Vince Carter On Fire (CTLVCOF)
RIP Seasons of Discontent
by Scott Howard on Jun 8, 2011 10:40 AM MST up reply actions
If he averages...
20 and 12 and we make the playoffs, would he be third team all-NBA? What about 22 and 10?
If you don’t think he can be all-NBA, then what are you projecting as his per-game maximum averages?
With those numbers he'd be the MIP easily, that's enough for third team
Not that I see it happening unless Nash and him take the two man game to the mythical Stockton-Malone level.
Gortat doesn't need much to hit 20 points
There is where numbers really help.
Last year, per 36 minutes for the Suns Gortat took 11.5 FGA, and made 6.5, for a shooting percentage of .563. He also shot 3.9 FTs, and made 2.8 for .731 – a career high FT%.
.563 is really high, so lets assume he hits .520, and takes 15 shots, and as a consequence he also shoots a few more free throws, lets say 5 at .700
Based on that, Gortat would average 19.1 points per 36. That isn’t a huge increase, and if we assume that, with a full training camp, Nash and Gortat are a little more in sync, and Gortat continues to improve his 15 footer, it is not that big a stretch at all.
So all that is needed for Gortat to hit 20 and 12 is:
1. 36 minutes a night.
2. A 40% increase in shot attempts (from 11.5 to 15.5)
3. ~10% reduction in FG%
4. ~3% reduction in FT%
5. A 5% increase in rebounds per minute.
None of that is a massive improvement. But it relates directly to both his numbers, and whether you personally expect him to be given more shots, and to improve or regress in specific areas.
If the MIP were based on something measurable (which it never is) surely someone else would have improved more than that?
I’ve made my prediction higher up, but 20-12 is not out of the realms of possibility, and certainly within his ceiling.
hey I’m as big a fan of Gortat as most, but if Gortat increases his shot attempts by 40% the Suns are not a playoff team. I think he’s perfect at 15 and 11.
What he needs to work on is to expand his offensive game to maintain 15 ppg despite defensive adjustments by opponents and post-Nash. And defensively, he needs to be made a focal point that the team can count on, resulting in a significantly higher defensive rating. If Gortat maintains 15 and 11 along with the Suns achieving top-15 defense, then that’s worth a ton in my eyes.
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
agreed, Alex. That would be great.
by BringBackBarkley17 on Jun 8, 2011 8:08 PM MST up reply actions
Hey?
That’s crazy talk!
Gortat hits .563 on his shots. 56.3%!!!! If he takes more shots at that, or at .520 even, he’ll be a VERY productive player.
This is where people lose me. A player that scores efficiently is a good offensive player. A player that scores inefficiently is a bad offensive player. These numbers do not lie, and if they do, someone needs to explain WHY they lie.
No matter what a players “potential” is, guys who efficiently put the ball in the hoop are guys you want.
Forget highlight reel dunks, forget ESPN sportscenter, a team needs productive, efficient players. Fundamentals still matter, and are far too often lost in a world of AAU basketball and athletic players that make your jaw drop.
So Mikki Moore is a good offensive player?
I’m pretty sure he lead the league in FG% a few seasons ago.
Gortat was a very efficient scorer last year. But could he handle a bigger load? Could he handle defenses that are focused on stopping him? Remember Goran and how the scouting report caught up to him?
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Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl XLV Champions!!!!
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Mark West
was an offensive dynamo.
Never confuse activity with achievement.
by Jim Coughenour on Jun 9, 2011 12:22 PM MST up reply actions
He was the Suns offense in the early 90s.
Can’t even name the other guys.
Founder of the Coalition to Light Vince Carter On Fire (CTLVCOF)
RIP Seasons of Discontent
by Scott Howard on Jun 9, 2011 12:53 PM MST up reply actions
You all want to pick one number and extrapolate pointlessly.
If Gortat can hit .563 of 15 shots (and he did it for a lot last year) a game, can someone please explain to me how that is BAD? Or how you would rather have someone else take those 15 shots?
There are two numbers here that are important:
1. FG%
2. FGA
If they are BOTH high, what’s the issue? In fact, ideally, both WOULD be high, no?
Or is someone really going to argue that a player that takes 20 shots and shoots .600 is hurting there team?
But can he maintain that percentage if he does become the number 1 option offensively?
That is what we are discussing here. There is no doubt that If you are taking a lot of shots and making a high percentage of them then it is good for the team.
What we are doing is looking at Gortat’s offensive game and questioning whether he can continue to do that.
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Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl XLV Champions!!!!
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Disagree again, Seth. The NBA is the NBA. It doesn’t matter what team you are on. You are still facing the same competition. Especially a big man’s rebounding and defense is not going to change. So, yeah, I don’t think too many people average drastically different on one team than they would on another if the minutes are similar.
by BringBackBarkley17 on Jun 8, 2011 8:06 PM MST up reply actions
How about this? Gortat to the Mavericks for the 57th pick and cash! GENIIUS!
We could then sell the pick for cash! Cash is good! We could use that cash to sign Tyson Chandler in the off-season!
And Kidd would be stuck with Gortat, hilarious! Mavs wouldn’t even make the playoffs I bet they’d suck so bad!
How is this in any way warranted?
We are trying to have a legitimate discussion here and all you can do is throw out extreme sarcasm that doesn’t in any way respond to Seth’s argument.
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Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl XLV Champions!!!!
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Yea, we've overrated Gortat, but I'd still take him over most of those centers listed.
Chandler is too inconsistent due to injuries, good one year, bad the next. I really don’t like Cousins attitude. Bynum is just one injury away from becoming Greg Oden, so no. Perkins never smiles and although he is a better defender that Gortat, his offense is much more limited. I haven’t seen Bogut since his freak accident last season, so I don’t know how good he is now. Dalembert is like 30 now right? I have no idea who DeAndre Jordan is? Al Jefferson replaced Boozer and the Jazz got worse and D-Will later got traded. He wouldn’t fit with Nash anyway. Who is Asik? I’ve heard some good things about McGee, but haven’t seen him play. Okafor is the only I’d probably switch Gortat for. Okafor is good, but he’s a year older than Gortat and he failed to average 10 rebounds per game while I think Gortat will surpass his numbers next season. Same with Nene.
Actually, the only guy I’d switch Gortat for would be the kid you suggested Seth.
Don't trade Dudley!
Not to try to offend you Beavis
but comments to the effect that Gortat is the second best center in the NBA (outside of Howard) really make the fanbase look myopic and reveal a bias. I’m biased about lots of things, but I at least try to realize when I’m letting my allegiances influence my thinking and decision making.
You may very well feel that Gortat is better than Andrew Bynum, but from an impartial standpoint you sound like a raving lunatic. I guarantee that every gm in the league (including Phoenix’s) has Bynum ranked above Gortat. I think you would be hard pressed to find anyone who is worried about their credibility who would agree with your Gortat/Bynum analysis.
Gortat’s breakout play is still at an inchoate stage. Bynum is a game altering player in the post. His size and length intimidates people and alters shots. He eats up space. As far as this goes, Gortat plays more like a power forward than a center. He is not an indomitable force in the paint. Lopez is more of a space eater than Gortat.
Let’s not go too far overboard with the effusive praise for Gortat. There’s a difference between a 27 year old having a breakthough stretch of 15 and 10 play and a 22 year old doing it. The hyperbolic faction trumpets Gortat’s achievements as if he were the latter.
As soon as next year is over and Gortat has averaged 17 and 11, I will be more than happy to oblige the irrational exuberance involving the discussion over the injustice surrounding his absence from the all-NBA team.
Once again, not trying to offend. It is also possible that I am misinterpreting your intent or mischaracterizing your statement, but what I read really made it sound like your analysis was that Gortat was the third best center in the NBA (hence only preferring one player off Seth’s list).
Please comment or retort.
Never confuse activity with achievement.
by Jim Coughenour on Jun 6, 2011 11:22 PM MST up reply actions
I agree with you, but I think he took off guys like Bynum, Bogut, Oden, etc. because of injury issues. It doesn’t matter how good you are if you’re sitting on the bench in a suit.
Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!
Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl XLV Champions!!!!
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Health is a constant concern with big men.
Bynum and Bogut have definitely had their problems. I wouldn’t take Oden over Gortat because the smart money says that injuries will pretty much prevent him from having any kind of semi-normal career. Hopefully Gortat’s increased playing time and the rigors and pounding of an 82 game season don’t put him in a similar boat.
I would probably emphasize the contract situation if I was arguing the Gortat side of the debate. Since he makes half of what Bynum and Bogut do, and is under control at that seemingly bargain rate for a while, that would definitely be a plus.
I was just arguing who was better, though. I still say that Gortat hasn’t shown me the ability to impact or dominate a game from the paint the way that even a player like Oden seemed capable of doing in limited exposure.
At this point I think people just need to be more cautiously optimistic. There have been lots of players who have come through Phoenix and showed great potential and then never realized it.
Let’s let Gortat earn it instead of handing him the keys to the kingdom with starry eyes with ineffable adulation.
Never confuse activity with achievement.
by Jim Coughenour on Jun 7, 2011 8:04 AM MST up reply actions
Not again...
Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!
Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl XLV Champions!!!!
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I still don't get it
What are you predicting, exactly?
Background: per 36 minutes, Gortat averaged 15.8 and 11.3 last year for the Suns. To put this in perspective, both Okafor (11.7, 10.8) and Bogut (13, 11.3) averaged less per 36 last year, although Bogut was injured and scored a lot less than expected, making Bogut’s 2009-10 numbers a better comparison.
Anyway, if Gortat plays close to 36 minutes (30-36 seems reasonable), there are, as I see it, three possibilities:
1. He improves, and 15 and 11 is too low (adjusted for minutes)
2. He stays the same, and 15 and 11 is what he hits (adjusted for minutes)
3. He regresses and 15 and 11 is too high (adjusted for minutes)
Which one of the three are you predicting, and why? I understand the general caution, but you haven’t really provided a rationale for improvement/regression and, most importantly, any sort of value from which that movement occurs.
So, what do you think he will average and why? And also, as stats don’t show it, where will Gortat rank defensively?
BUT HE'S SO OLD LIKE ALMOST 31 AND ONLY SCORES BECAUSE OF NASH
DISREGARD THOSE FIVE GAMES WITHOUT NASH WHERE HE AVERAGED 12 and 8 in 29 MINUTES ON NEARLY 60% SHOOTING (WHICH AMOUNTS TO A 15 AND 10 PER 36), THOSE WERE FAKE GAMES
AND YES I AM TYPING IN ALL CAPS TO ADD MAXIMUM CREDIBILITY TO MY POST
But seriously, he did alright without Nash, scored maybe a point less on similar shooting (which makes sense as Brooks was still lost as hell running the offense) and his rebounding was lower by one because one of those games was the game where Frye was out and we had to play Warrick at PF. The Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man shot an amazing 15% that night. Ahh the memories.
You misunderstand me
You may very well feel that Gortat is better than Andrew Bynum
I don’t. As of right now, Okafor, Bynum, Bogut, Al, Dalembert, Gasol and Chandler are all better than Gortat. However, I’ve already stated the reasons why I wouldn’t take those guys. I think Gortat will give us a double double next season which is better or on par with most of those guys and most of those guys around the same age as him. With Al, he just wouldn’t fit our system. Bynum and Mcgee are younger and would still be better players, but Bynum is just one injury away from retirement. I would take Mcgee over Gortat.
Cousins is very young, but I think Gortat is the better player right now. Yet, I wouldn’t switch them because of his attitude. That is really the only part where my bias sets in.
Don't trade Dudley!
McGee is just dumb, amazing athlete, but goddamn
Dumb as a doornail that guy. I’m talking Jim Carrey in Dumb & Dumber dumb. This is a guy that has an alter-ego called “Pierre” and drove around on a Segway everywhere instead of a car.
He’s so dumb he didn’t do a free throw line dunk in the dunk contest because Ibaka did it too.
He’s just so, so dumb.
lol, ok...
We just need to be happy with Gortat. Derrick Williams is much more overrated.
Don't trade Dudley!
lol
Still, losing 91 to 116, why not try an ingame free-throw line dunk?
Give yourself and Gortat more credit. He’s better than Okafor and Dalembert.
by BringBackBarkley17 on Jun 7, 2011 6:22 PM MST up reply actions
Better than Gortat?
Surely, but…
name – $ – PER – PER/$ (PER/$??? Yes guys! Yes Mr Hollinger! I created new formula for a player rating.):
PGasol – 17,823,000 – 23.3 – 1.31
Bynum – 13,700,000 – 21.1 – 1.54
Dalembert – 13,428,129 – 14.1 – 1.05
Chandler – 12,600,000 – 18.5 – 1.46
Okafor – 11,495,000 – 16.0 – 1.39
Bogut – 11,000,000 – 16.8 – 1.53
-
Gortat – $6,322,320 – 17.8 – 2.82!!!
So, are they better for the team?
Who can produce more Gortat + Millsap [$14,000,000] or PGasol + crappy old PF [$19,000,000]?
Sorry, I know I stray from the subject [ceiling].
After Cousins and Bynum, I’d probably take him over any of those guys. Maybe not McGee.
by BringBackBarkley17 on Jun 6, 2011 6:35 PM MST up reply actions
Good News!
This news made me ecstatic
Now if only we could convince the Pistons to hire Jeff Van Gundy and the Pacers to hire Reggie Miller.
Re-sign BAMF.
i was thinking the same thing
"Maybe I’m old school," Nash said, "but I signed a contract to play here and I want to honor it. I feel like I owe it to my teammates and the city and everybody to keep battling until they tell me it’s time to go." STEVE (God of Basketball) NASH
no more of this announcing, thank God
by BringBackBarkley17 on Jun 7, 2011 12:27 PM MST up reply actions
Gortat should work on his 3 point shot.
And get that horrible 3PT % of 0,250 to somewhere around 0,35. Then Gortat will be threat from outside too. Lol.
Alea iacta est!
It doesn't matter.
Why? Everybody knows that TEAM win the game. I’ve posted few weeks ago about K.Love. He is a Star. He had big numbers but did he help Minnesota to win something?No. He can play a great basket but he don’t win a game alone. IMO if Gortat will have 16/11/1,8 and SUNS will get to the Playoffs it will be great. Now we’re talking about solid Center who can be a higher level but he has to confirm that in next season. Then we’ll talk about his ceiling.
I wish him the best and I hope he can make me proud.
After all I've heard or read, I'm still not convinced that Marcin Gortat for the # 2 is worth it.
There is just more good to say about Gortat than Derrick Williams. I’m much more confident that Marcin will give us 14 and 10 than I am about Will giving us 20 and 8.
From what I’ve heard about Derrick Williams is that he’s like Amar’e when he was first drafted only smaller, not as explosive, not as good a rebounder, but he is just as good as a defender. His attitude is also questionable. At least that’s what I got from my friend who watches a lot of college ball and writes about it, so yea I’m of the same opinion and I guess you can call that bias. Is it true though? Be honest.
Many of the fans here on BSOTS still have hard feelings about Amar’e and didn’t think he was a franchise player regardless of his injuries. There was a love/hate relationship with Amar’e. Now I have to ask those people, do you really want to trade Gortat for a guy you’ll probably hate more than Amar’e? Yea, sure he’s got all-star potential, but so does Beasley, so if that’s the kind of player you want than we might as well trade Dudley and the 13th for Beasley like some Minny fans have even suggested they’d do than trade Gortat for the #2.
What say ye!
Don't trade Dudley!
so if that’s the kind of player you want than we might as well trade Dudley and the 13th for Beasley like some Minny fans have even suggested they’d do than trade Gortat for the #2.
Don’t be confused by this statement. Those fans would still rather get Gortat for the #2, but they wouldn’t mind trading Beasley for the 13th pick and Dudley. If we want a star, I’d rather do that trade than trade away Gortat. Would their FO do it? I don’t think so, but I doubt a deal will get done regardless because I doubt our own FO wants to give up Gortat.
Don't trade Dudley!
I definitely would not trade Dudz and the 13 for Beasley. There are a lot of trades out there that would be better than that one. I’d rather stand pat.
by BringBackBarkley17 on Jun 8, 2011 8:10 PM MST up reply actions
That seems like a good trade to me.
Beasley is 22 years old and averaged 19.2 ppg last year. That is already better than Dudley will ever average and the kid is only 22. Plus, everyone knows that Beasley has a really “high” ceiling.
Since so much of the Gortat debate seemed to revolve around point and rebound totals over court presence, charisma, or sangfroid I would figure that more people would like Beasley over Dudley based on simple statistics.
Unless you factor in the blind allegiance from Suns fans to their favorite players that transforms role players into world beaters.
Never confuse activity with achievement.
by Jim Coughenour on Jun 8, 2011 10:14 PM MST up reply actions
Just look at my sig, you know I couldn't do it.
If they offer Beasley for Dudley and the 13th, our FO better do it, but if I were in their place I’d scream “Don’t trade Dudley!” and hang up.
Don't trade Dudley!
Well, consider some Wolves fans were also in favor of that trade.
Beasley is talented, no doubt, but will he ever be as good as he should? Can he be a team guy and do everythign you need to win?
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So there we go.
Gortat and Dudley….
for……
Beasley, Flynn, and Randolph.
Plus the swap of the #2 for the #13.
That would sure stir the pot, wouldn’t it?
Never confuse activity with achievement.
by Jim Coughenour on Jun 9, 2011 12:16 PM MST up reply actions
hey it CAN get worse! We can swap rosters with Minny. Yay.
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
The Suns can do that?
Hello Kevin Love.
Ooh! Ooh! Pick me!
Then the Suns could talk to Minnesota about what it might take to get Gortat or Dudley back in Phoenix.
Never confuse activity with achievement.
by Jim Coughenour on Jun 9, 2011 12:56 PM MST up reply actions
yep
cuz I’m praying for a decade of 19-win seasons. Gimme some Love!
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
hmm tempting lol. If Rubio and Derrick Williams or whoever they get pan out, that would be a good switch.
by BringBackBarkley17 on Jun 9, 2011 1:39 PM MST up reply actions
It is kind of funny when he mentions it....
On one hand…
Nash (37), Hill (38), and some good young role players.
On the other hand…
Love (22), Beasley (22), Rubio (20), and the #2 pick.
Are you sure that’s not worth considering?
Never confuse activity with achievement.
by Jim Coughenour on Jun 9, 2011 1:57 PM MST up reply actions
Not a single player on Minnesota's roster
makes as much money as Childress….
The consensus seems to be that their front office is horrible, but what does that say about Phoenix?
Lots of young talent and flexibility in Minnesota. Although I guess sometimes that can kind of come with being a doormat for so long.
I’m not sure why they want to trade that #2 pick…. If I was them I would probably draft Kanter to go along with Love, Beasly, and Rubio.
That’s 4 players 22 and under with a lot of potential. It could definitely be worse.
Never confuse activity with achievement.
by Jim Coughenour on Jun 9, 2011 2:07 PM MST up reply actions
sorry Jim. I just can’t follow any argument based on “I’d rather be the Twolves”
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
Take the franchise names and city off of it and just look at the rosters
I can’t say I disagree with Jim here.
Founder of the Coalition to Light Vince Carter On Fire (CTLVCOF)
RIP Seasons of Discontent
but there are no winners
on that roster. That’s why Minny wins only 15-20 games a year. Wouldn’t you like to see some wins? I would.
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
In my opinion
The Minnesota youngsters can learn to be winners.
The Suns winners will have a tough time becoming young again. Or overcoming their talent limitations (Dudz).
Founder of the Coalition to Light Vince Carter On Fire (CTLVCOF)
RIP Seasons of Discontent
by Scott Howard on Jun 10, 2011 1:13 AM MST up reply actions
I usually agree with you, but not here.
Sure, each of those individual players (besides SuperCoolBeaz) can learn to be winners. But as a collective – as currently constructed – it will be near impossible for that team to win 50 games in a season UNLESS you mix in a leader who already knows how to win. Give them a veteran leader at point or SG, then I can see it. But a complete roster-swap will make the Suns worse in the win column.
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I guess my resonse to that is...
What’s easier – finding a veteran PG or finding an entire roster of talented players?
Founder of the Coalition to Light Vince Carter On Fire (CTLVCOF)
RIP Seasons of Discontent
by Scott Howard on Jun 10, 2011 8:03 AM MST up reply actions
and I guess my response to that is: ask Minnesota
Look, I understand where you’re coming from. Minny has talent. But the Suns still win a lot more games. I’d rather have the wins.
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
for a year or two, but after that, not sure
by BringBackBarkley17 on Jun 10, 2011 1:38 PM MST up reply actions
you cannot compare this current Suns roster minus 2 players to any NBA roster because that’s not going to happen. The Suns roster will be completely different after Nash is gone. THAT roster we have no idea what it will look like.
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but anyway, ignore me. And don’t be offended by any unintended tone in my reply. I’m just not a pessimist by nature. I can’t see the Suns winning 20 games a year for 5-6 years straight. Something else will happen to bring in new talent when Nash leaves. Same as when Nance, Barkley, et al left. The Suns always rises.
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
God i hope you are right...
Lets pray we get lucky in our first lottery, and get pick one and it is LeBron II.
The Suns always rises.
Eh, disregarding the grammatical error I’d still go with the Phoenix rise-from-ashes analogy rather than the rising sun one.
Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!
Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl XLV Champions!!!!
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My pleasure.
Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!
Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl XLV Champions!!!!
I also edit things at Ridiculous Upside. Check it out.
Totally agree, Jim. And if I were them, I’d take Kanter too.
by BringBackBarkley17 on Jun 9, 2011 4:43 PM MST up reply actions
I’m leaning toward thinking its a good thing I was out of commission for a few days and couldn’t participate in this discussion. It was heated and salient (in most parts) and funny (in others). My input would have leaned toward motherwell’s, yet motherwell said it better than I could have.
I really think Gortat is a top-10 Center in the NBA, worth twice his salary since he produces the same as those who make double the money. The Suns should hold onto him over Williams, I think. Why trade a good Center for a tweener?
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
I was not on the side of trading him for Williams,
but I also agree with Seth about Gortat.
Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!
Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl XLV Champions!!!!
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I give up. You all convinced me that I’ve been looking at the wrong thing. Instead of watching him play I should be reading more stats. Hes obviously a future All-Star / All NBA player
Raising Arizona Sports at SB Nation Arizona twitter: @sethpo
by Seth Pollack on Jun 8, 2011 7:59 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
lol don't give in yet Seth!
I’m still with you!
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Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl XLV Champions!!!!
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by Omaha Sun on Jun 8, 2011 9:11 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
I've said my piece (and peace)
on this topic…we’ll just have to wait and see how it plays out.
I would happily eat my words if Gortat turns into an All-Star or even top 10 NBA center. You can’t have stars at all the positions so have an average center is still pretty, pretty good.
And btw, in case I wasn’t clear, I LIKE MARCIN GORTAT AND WOULD MARRY HIM IF I WASN’T ALREADY MARRIED (AND NOT SO INTO MARRYING GUYS…NOT THAT THERE’S ANYTHING WRONG WITH THAT)
Raising Arizona Sports at SB Nation Arizona twitter: @sethpo
Don't worry Seth...
I too actually agree with you an almost everything you said…Except for the whole not-athletic thing. But Omaha made a great point about how he’s mobile but not explosive, and if we agree there then I think even that disagreement is all just semantics anyway.
Either way, I definitely get what you’re saying…I don’t view Gortat as a marquee player or even a supporting-star either. I think he’s a very good player who fits into our system like a glove…and there’s certainly nothing wrong with that!
by 7footer on Jun 8, 2011 10:02 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
I don’t view Gortat as a marquee player or even a supporting-star either. I think he’s a very good player who fits into our system like a glove…and there’s certainly nothing wrong with that!
recrecrecrecrecrecrecrec
Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!
Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl XLV Champions!!!!
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Except.....
I think he’s a very good player who fits into our system like a glove…and there’s certainly nothing wrong with that!
The system is mostly Nash and Nash is mostly done with his career.
Raise your hand if you think Nash is still the Suns starting point guard on opening night of the 2012 season AND playing at a near all-star level.
Nevermind. That’s an improbable proposition to get probity amidst the partisanship….
Never confuse activity with achievement.
by Jim Coughenour on Jun 8, 2011 10:21 PM MST up reply actions
Hush.
Things are pretty bad at the moment. I do my best to avoid thinking how they are going to get worse soon.
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Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl XLV Champions!!!!
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Sorry.
I didn’t really think that anyone was paying attention.
Never confuse activity with achievement.
by Jim Coughenour on Jun 8, 2011 10:53 PM MST up reply actions
We likely will get worse
Nash is holding us together. Lose him, and we will SUCK. And suck BADLY.
Good news though: we have cap space for two max players in 2012, and as long as we DO NOT do a Detroit and waste the cap space on overrated, middle level talents like Gordon and Villanueva, we should be in an OK spot.
The 2012 FA class includes Paul, Howard, Love, Deron Williams as well as a bunch of players in the OK range. With some luck, we might get a player (or two). That is how we got Nash after all.
So hopefully, we’ll survive this year, and get a little lucky next year.
I don’t think he will. At least one of those won’t be true.
by BringBackBarkley17 on Jun 8, 2011 10:53 PM MST up reply actions
So did you raise your hand then?
Never confuse activity with achievement.
by Jim Coughenour on Jun 8, 2011 10:55 PM MST up reply actions
Given the pieces, and some good luck in terms of injuries,
I still think he would be able to run the team in a similar fashion. His scoring would likely drop, but he could conceivably still hit top 5 in assists if he has a roll man and some shooters.
But will we be in a position where he can just sit back and make plays without having to be the guy all the time? And does he get that good luck? Those are things that are tough to predict.
Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!
Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl XLV Champions!!!!
I also edit things at Ridiculous Upside. Check it out.
I think Nash is fine.
Just get him a real go to guy and he’ll make the all-star team again.
Don’t forget that his poor play was more so due to injuries which were more so due to having to do too much than age, but really if he was younger he wouldn’t get hurt having to do too much, but than there’s Amar’e who’s 28 and still got hurt having to do too much, so what I’m saying doesn’t really make any sense.
I thought the guy was done after 09 and would never make another all-star game again, but I was wrong. I’d be surprised if Nash doesn’t have at least one more all-star appearance before his career ends.
He’s not on for a steep downfall like some would think. He keeps himself in great shape and although age will make him worse, because of his work ethic he’ll decline little by little very slowly like he has been since he hit his ceiling at 33.
Don't trade Dudley!
Well, yes and no.
He keeps himself in tremendous shape and should be able to keep going. But as you get older, injuries come easier. And those little nagging injuries built up last year and screwed up his shot. I think he can keep going as long as he doesn’t have to be the guy doing it all for 35+ mpg. We really need another scorer and a competent back-up to groom behind Steve.
Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!
Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl XLV Champions!!!!
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Well yes, but he will be fine as long as we get him a go to guy and a good backup PG, so he doesn't have to play 35+mpg.
Don't trade Dudley!
I thought that sounded familiar.
Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!
Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl XLV Champions!!!!
I also edit things at Ridiculous Upside. Check it out.
he won’t because our record won’t be good enough. And the decline is coming. If not next year, the year after that for sure. Precipitous.
by BringBackBarkley17 on Jun 9, 2011 1:40 PM MST up reply actions
Or
Precipitous
Declivitous.
I like declivitous. Declivitous descent sounds cool.
Never confuse activity with achievement.
by Jim Coughenour on Jun 9, 2011 1:58 PM MST up reply actions
Watching him play...
How many times? How many times have you seen him play in person vs on film? Do you re-watch every game and analyse it? Do you have clips of Gortat’s footwork on the pick and roll, on both offence and defence? Same with his hand when shooting? What degree of “watch” analysis do you do?
I doubt anyone has watched any player enough to know for certain much of anything, unless they work for an NBA team in a video editing suite.
But the numbers… the numbers don’t lie, and we all have access to those.
Look, the eye test matters, but if your claim is that numbers don’t matter, and the eye test is what counts, you need to have spent a LOT of time “eye testing”. And even, then you need to explain WHY the numbers lie. Is Gortat not as good as his stats (quite possible)? Is he shooting .563 because of Nash (doubtful given his career averages)? Are his rebounds inflated because of the team (again, probably not based upon career averages)?
The problem with the “watch games” argument is that no one ever justifies how much they watch, or more specifically WHAT they watch (the ball? Off ball? Screens? What?) and never justify how this is better than numbers.
And the problem with the stats crowd is that numbers don’t explain why. However, over a career and enough data points, we can draw some conclusions, and the one conclusion that is absolutely shown is that Gortat has been at worst an 11 rebounds per 36 player. At. Worst.
Is there fundamental disagreement on that specific item? If not, the next questions become “can he play 36 minutes and can he take more shots at an efficient rate?”
Ceiling schmeiling, lets try something more reasonable like is he going to improve or regress.
Yes and no.
But the numbers… the numbers don’t lie, and we all have access to those.
Number don’t lie, but people do.
Since people lie (some people really like to lie), manipulation of numbers can be a very effective way of distorting or misrepresenting a situation. One person can use numbers to support a statement. Another person can use numbers to refute the same statement.
“How to Lie With Statistics” is a good read. Since you seem to have an affinity to numbers and research you might want to obtain and peruse a copy if you haven’t already.
Never confuse activity with achievement.
by Jim Coughenour on Jun 9, 2011 12:22 PM MST up reply actions
Number don’t lie, but people do.
Agreed 100%. So, lets move the debate from “do numbers count”, to “WHAT numbers count”.
One person can use numbers to support a statement. Another person can use numbers to refute the same statement.
And… ? That’s not the END of the discussion, but the start (I seem to say that a lot here).
The question very specifically is: what numbers are important and which aren’t in a specific context?
Numbers used to lie with overview: small sample size numbers. Numbers with no other context (e.g. XYZ is the best player because he hit .478 of 3p FGs). Numbers drawn from a subset of the data that proves or point, ignoring the data as a whole or other specific parts.
So lets look at some examples:
1. I am using Gortat’s Suns numbers, and specifically his per 36 numbers. This is a VERY small sample size. This could very well be a non-representative sample. However, to make that argument one would need numbers to support it, and Gortat’s career numbers are very similar.
2. Jim quoting Gortat’s season average to comment on his performance. Gortat sat behind Howard, and PER GAME numbers are dictated by minutes played more than anything else (that is a correlation I hope everyone can agree on).
3. The quote above that Mikki Moore, with a good shooting percentage, was a good offensive player – that hardly takes into account the FGA per game, or the context of how Gortat made his .563, which was how?
We can all choose numbers to suite our argument, of that I agree 100%. But the question is: how do we use all the tools efficiently? Numbers are a vital part of analysis in any endeavour, and in Basketball, they must surely matter. So, again, which numbers matter, in your opinion, and why? And which don’t? And how and when do other issues (intangibles, whatever) discount or overrule numbers? That is the context – it really isn’t an either or, and the relationship between all the elements should be explained.
Lastly, implicit in this comment is my reliance on numbers. That’s fair, because that is mostly what i have relied upon. Now, I rely upon numbers because numbers are actual evidence, which the anecdotal “I watch games” simply isn’t. An Intangibles? How can anyone not attached to the team know that?
Anyway, I watch as most every games (I have league pass), although I missed a few last season because, quite frankly, the losses where often VERY hard to stomach, and missing them live, and knowing the score, made it just too painful.
Anyway, I think this speaks for my “watching” credentials better than an “I watch games” statement ever could: http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2011/1/27/1959432/breaking-down-the-final-three-minutes-of-suns-loss-to-the-bobcats
I hope marcins ceiling is
at least 7 and a half feet,otherwise he would hit his head on everything!
Lover,Poet,Suns fan,All around damn good guy.
by stevedavis_ on Jun 9, 2011 9:40 AM MST reply actions 7 recs
From the "I tease because I care" file....
This post was 399 words long. Anyone care to guess the total word count MMotherwell has (at the time of my comment) committed to this post?
3,281.
To answer your question : Yes I am that bored but it really only took like 5 minutes to copy and paste it all into word.
To MMotherwell: Marcin Gorat should be so lucky to have you as a brother.
Founder of the Coalition to Light Vince Carter On Fire (CTLVCOF)
RIP Seasons of Discontent
Although
Not to question your numbers, but maybe the reason everyone has such a hard time with numbers is is illustrated because I have apparently written 10 times more words than actual exist in this thread.
I dunno about you, but my guess is there is a mistake in there SOMEWHERE :P
Scott meant
the original story had 399 words. Motherwell was toward the top of commenters with 3,281 words in reply on what started as a 399 word article.
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
Was that not clear?
I’m confused.
Founder of the Coalition to Light Vince Carter On Fire (CTLVCOF)
RIP Seasons of Discontent
by Scott Howard on Jun 10, 2011 1:13 AM MST up reply actions
Yes indeed gentlemen, that was a fine discussion.
Let’s now all agree not to trade Gortat and wait how he develops next season. Amen.
Alea iacta est!
by PolishHammer on Jun 10, 2011 10:32 PM MST reply actions 5 recs
keep Gortat, and keep the PolishHammer commenting on BSotS!
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