NBA Player Salary Dollars Per Win Share: What Defines Value?

by East Bay Ray on Jul 23, 2011 9:41 AM MST

A couple of weeks ago, PHXgp posted this story about best and worst values in the NBA, with Steve Nash featured as an outstanding value and Vince Carter.....eh, not so much. Teamrankings.com recently rated the values of the NBA's highest 30 salaries using their own calculations, and I found this list to be interesting for a few reasons.

First, Nash doesn't appear on the list at all because he's not one of the highest 30 salaries in the league. Have I mentioned before that Nash is underpaid and has been for his entire Phoenix career? OK, maybe once or twice but when I see it called out like this, I still stop and take notice.

The names of former Suns Jason Richardson, Amare Stoudemire and Joe Johnson on the list also beg questions of value.

Follow the jump for the details of what this nerd came up with in his calculations. Does he know what he's talking about? Or does he need to get the hell out of here and take his pocket protector with him?

Looking down the list, we start with superstar players who can be paid just about any amount and it won't be too much: LeBron James, Chris Paul, Dwyane Wade, Dwight Howard. We're talking about dollars per win share here, so best bang for your buck, and those players are obviously producing a lot of wins. Say what you will about LeBron, but $14.5M for him last year was a bargain.

Continuing down the list, we see the usual suspects like Paul Pierce, Dirk Nowitzki and Pau Gasol. Zach Randolph's name at #9 might raise your eyebrows a bit, but not if you saw what he did in the playoffs. It's at #10 that things get a little peculiar. Elton Brand? Really? He's been talked about as having one of the worst contracts in the league, but he provided better "value" than the likes of Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan last year.

Jason Richardson is rated #12, one spot ahead of Amare Stoudemire. I suppose that, if we're looking at a list of 30 salaries, we can loosely define "good" value as being among the top 15. Notably on the wrong side of that line are Carmelo Anthony at #16 and Kobe Bryant at #17. Bryant's obviously still an outstanding player, but his mammoth $24.8M salary makes it hard to be a good value, while Carmelo Anthony's lower rating can possibly be attributed to his tumultuous season, with rumors of trade and then the trade to the Knicks.

Getting into the 20s, we find our old friend Joe Johnson at #21, to the surprise of nobody since he's been overpaid for years. This has always justified the Suns decision to trade him, in my view. Of course, current Sun (technically, at least) Vince Carter is at #23 so it's not as if we're immune to wasting money.

At the very bottom, we have the injured (Yao Ming, Michael Redd), and the laughably terrible contracts of guys like Gilbert Arenas and Rashard Lewis.

These ratings generally pass the smell test for me and, if the owners have their way and implement a hard salary cap, this sort of player value will become much more important in the league (i.e. the Lakers won't be able to go way over the cap to pay Bryant, Gasol and Bynum). What say you about these ratings? Is there value in their definition of value?

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it still blows my mind how much rashard lewis makes.

"Maybe I’m old school," Nash said, "but I signed a contract to play here and I want to honor it. I feel like I owe it to my teammates and the city and everybody to keep battling until they tell me it’s time to go." STEVE (God of Basketball) NASH

by 2NASHTY on Jul 23, 2011 10:30 AM MST reply actions

Worst Contract Ever

But how about JChilly ? He is worst contract we could had.

Do not let Steve Nash and Grant Hill go away, please.
Otherwhise im not buying any tickets from you Saver.

by Lino Canaan on Jul 23, 2011 10:55 AM MST via mobile up reply actions

I still don't see Chill's contract as being terrible...At least not yet.

Sure, he definitely didn’t live up to his deal last season…not even close. However, if he could get consistent playing time this season and keep his fingers healthy, I think he could still earn his keep.

by 7footer on Jul 23, 2011 1:23 PM MST up reply actions 3 recs

I linked to this before

the rashard lewis part is Epic.

by 2NASHTY on Jul 23, 2011 4:04 PM MST up reply actions

Love that!

LOL at “Shaquito”

Voted most likely to say "I told you so"

by jc79 on Jul 25, 2011 1:25 PM MST up reply actions

I agree

He never really got a good chance. I think he will be a great player for our team next season if he gets consistent minutes per game. It also speaks greatly of his character if he didn’t (at least publicly) complain about his lack of PT during the season even when Vince was ‘killing it’

Carter having a glazed-eyes contest with Boris Diaw. Carter's winning, but Diaw might respond by eating his eyes.

by NashtySUNS on Jul 23, 2011 7:45 PM MST up reply actions

His contract is pretty bad.

He’s making starter money and he barley even got off the bench. He’d have to be a candidate for the 6th man of the year for every year that’s left on that contract in order to live up to it.

Don't trade Dudley!

by Beavis 25 on Jul 24, 2011 2:22 PM MST up reply actions

Yeah I guess you are right

But I think he should be able to do that. Look what he did in Atlanta

Carter having a glazed-eyes contest with Boris Diaw. Carter's winning, but Diaw might respond by eating his eyes.

by NashtySUNS on Jul 24, 2011 2:29 PM MST up reply actions

nah, I don’t think so. Manu Ginobili, Jason Terry, Jamal Crawford and Lamar Odom and other perennial 6th-man candidates make more than 10 mil a year. Childress makes 6-7 million. How about 7th or 8th man of the year?

Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun

by Alex Laugan on Jul 24, 2011 4:20 PM MST up reply actions

Pretty much...

When Childress was originally signed, I saw him coming in and eventually taking Grant Hill’s place in the starting line-up. While that seems like a long lost hope now, I still believe he could do it if given the chance. He never got into any kind of rhythm last year, and I’m sure the broken finger and the re-adjusting from euro-ball played a big part of it. However, Chill has a skill set that could help this team in a major way if he gets comfortable playing in our system. He is a long, athletic slasher who can defend the perimeter, score inside, and get rebounds…things we could certainly use. His biggest problem was an inability to space the floor with poor 3-point shooting, though over his career he has at least been adequate in that area, so that could certainly improve.

If he does become a starter or even a significant bench player for us next season then his contract could easily go from looking pretty bad to pretty good. Judging from last year’s play that may seem like a long shot, but going on what I’ve seen from him in the past I’m inclined to take those odds.

by 7footer on Jul 24, 2011 5:11 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs

If he does become a starter or even a significant bench player for us next season then his contract could easily go from looking pretty bad to pretty good.

Agree.

Don't trade Dudley!

by Beavis 25 on Jul 25, 2011 6:39 PM MST up reply actions

We could have got Chill for much less

The guy hadn’t played in the NBA for two years and when he did he was a nice role player on a crappy to mediocre team.

However, in response to your comment; I think Manu is more than a 6th man. He’s an all-star and should have got 30+ minutes a game, but was fine with accepting his role for the good of the team.

Lamar Odom is a borderline all-star. Keep in mind that LA was about to lose him and they needed him. They also have more cash to spend than we do, so they can take that risk.

Crawford? Come on Alex, you and I both know that Atlanta’s FO is one of the worst in the league.

Jason Terry? Very arguable. He has a 16.2ppg career average. He’s been very productive and is the only player to stay with Dirk since 04-05. One could argue that’s he worth the money for what he’s given that franchise. It’s possible that Dallas may even retire his number.

What has Chill done? He was a good role player on a bad team and then left the league for a couple seasons. Now he’s back and nobody even knows who this guy is except passionate Suns fans like us.

All those 6th men did make more than Chill, but they were all more than 6th men with the exception of Crawford.
Not all 6th men have made that kind of money, but I do see your point. Still, I think he’s got to produce like a 6th man in order to live up to that contract. The guys ahead of him, Gortat, Frye, Dudley and Hill all make less. This is a team that can’t afford to have a player who averages 5-10ppg be their 2nd highest paid player.

Don't trade Dudley!

by Beavis 25 on Jul 25, 2011 6:59 PM MST up reply actions

agree to disagree, Beav

Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun

by Alex Laugan on Jul 25, 2011 8:56 PM MST up reply actions

Ok:)

Don't trade Dudley!

by Beavis 25 on Jul 26, 2011 2:14 AM MST up reply actions

Agreed with Beavis. Very, very well said. Those guys are a hell of a lot more valuable than Chilly will ever be. If there’s an amnesty clause in the new CBA, they sure as hell better get rid of his bloatware contract.

by BringBackBarkley17 on Jul 25, 2011 9:33 PM MST up reply actions

No kidding...

Without a doubt one of the worst contracts in the history of the NBA.

by 7footer on Jul 23, 2011 1:21 PM MST up reply actions

I'm sure Lewis' contract is exhibit A

In the owners’ case of “these guaranteed contracts are killing us!” Actually, this list has a lot of evidence supporting that argument.

Blogging Suns basketball for Bright Side of the Sun from California wine country.
Twitter: @EastBayRaymundo

by East Bay Ray on Jul 23, 2011 1:38 PM MST up reply actions

that's what i was thinking

by 2NASHTY on Jul 23, 2011 4:00 PM MST up reply actions

But they made a final

As a Suns fan – e.g. a fan of a team that DIDN’T make a finals because we avoided bad deals, I’d have been happy with a Lewis like deal for Marion.. or JJ.

by MMotherwell on Jul 24, 2011 3:06 AM MST up reply actions

Rashard Lewis isnt on the worst contract in the universe; Gilbert Arenas is. At least Lewis has played and sucked, Arenas hasn't played and has sucked

by Purple Palace on Jul 24, 2011 10:42 AM MST up reply actions

Rashard Lewis received a franchise player salary

while performing at an above average role player level. Gilbert Arenas at least played like a star for the first couple seasons of his enormous contract before that whole gun thing.

Grant Hill eats MVPs for breakfast.

by NashMV3 on Jul 24, 2011 10:46 AM MST up reply actions

Forgot injuries too.

Grant Hill eats MVPs for breakfast.

by NashMV3 on Jul 24, 2011 10:47 AM MST up reply actions

remember the game he torched us for 50 something points.

by 2NASHTY on Jul 24, 2011 10:50 AM MST up reply actions

Was it when we went into OT and ended up losing?

Grant Hill eats MVPs for breakfast.

by NashMV3 on Jul 24, 2011 10:54 AM MST up reply actions

we lost

by 2NASHTY on Jul 24, 2011 11:13 AM MST up reply actions

Remember all those game winners he hit in the 06-07 season?

on this list is one of my favorite non-Suns plays ever.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eebjbb91dps

Re-sign BAMF.

by brian13 on Jul 24, 2011 1:42 PM MST up reply actions

mmm.. "#1 on this list"

Re-sign BAMF.

by brian13 on Jul 24, 2011 1:43 PM MST up reply actions

ya

agant zero was fun to watch…I wonder what ever happened to that dude.

by 2NASHTY on Jul 24, 2011 4:52 PM MST up reply actions

Multiple Knee Surgeries

took away his first step

Voted most likely to say "I told you so"

by jc79 on Jul 25, 2011 1:26 PM MST up reply actions

First of all, great pic.

Second of all, what a dumb list. Win shares is a horrible stat. Yao Ming and MIchael Redd are in the top 30 best contracts when they didn’t even play and so did nothing for their teams? Um, I don’t see that as good value. Stojakovic and Arenas didn’t do much either. I am not sure what this list is supposed to show. I don’t see much good out of it. It’s easy to figure out the most valuable contracts yourself without using something like win share.

by BringBackBarkley17 on Jul 23, 2011 10:55 AM MST reply actions

not 30 best

30 biggest and arguably some of the worst contract.

by 2NASHTY on Jul 23, 2011 12:20 PM MST up reply actions

Yeah, I really didn't think the word "top" would confuse things so much

Especially when you read the whole piece. But to make it more clear, I used the word “highest” instead.

Blogging Suns basketball for Bright Side of the Sun from California wine country.
Twitter: @EastBayRaymundo

by East Bay Ray on Jul 23, 2011 12:38 PM MST up reply actions

Ohhh. I thought the chart was trying to show those who have the best contracts in that they have the most win shares per salary. So a person that makes 20 million, it doesn’t matter if the team won 60 games.

But now I see.

by BringBackBarkley17 on Jul 23, 2011 8:24 PM MST up reply actions

So....the things you complain about in your misunderstanding of this list

Yao, Redd, Arenas being on it, mean you’re actually agreeing with the results, because those guys are overpaid non-contributors.

Blogging Suns basketball for Bright Side of the Sun from California wine country.
Twitter: @EastBayRaymundo

by East Bay Ray on Jul 23, 2011 12:41 PM MST up reply actions

nice

Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun

by Alex Laugan on Jul 24, 2011 7:15 AM MST up reply actions

DUDE!

rec for the giant TI 89 in the back round.

by 2NASHTY on Jul 23, 2011 4:12 PM MST reply actions

You own a pocket protector, don't you?

And you wear it with your short sleeve dress shirt and a tie?

Blogging Suns basketball for Bright Side of the Sun from California wine country.
Twitter: @EastBayRaymundo

by East Bay Ray on Jul 23, 2011 4:23 PM MST up reply actions

NO!!!!

I pin it to my “one tequila, two tequila, three tequila floor” T shirt

by 2NASHTY on Jul 23, 2011 4:36 PM MST up reply actions 2 recs

I'm still stuck rocking the TI-84...

Grant Hill eats MVPs for breakfast.

by NashMV3 on Jul 24, 2011 10:41 AM MST up reply actions

as long as you don’t work with matrices the 84 is fine

by 2NASHTY on Jul 24, 2011 10:47 AM MST up reply actions

That's why I'm studying accounting.

It renders what little calculus I have remaining in my head from my high school days useless. That and hot accountant chicks are pretty much what drew me in.

Grant Hill eats MVPs for breakfast.

by NashMV3 on Jul 24, 2011 10:50 AM MST up reply actions

That and hot accountant chicks are pretty much what drew me in.

damn why didn’t i think of that

by 2NASHTY on Jul 24, 2011 10:52 AM MST up reply actions

Was watching Casino Royale last night

and it further reaffirmed me that I’m on the right path. This particular Bond girl is an accountant after all…

Grant Hill eats MVPs for breakfast.

by NashMV3 on Jul 24, 2011 10:58 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs

well, to be fair

this is what nuclear physicist looks like in the bond world

by 2NASHTY on Jul 24, 2011 12:28 PM MST up reply actions 2 recs

This is getting good.

Now show me the picture of the nuclear accountant.

It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.

by Jim Coughenour on Jul 24, 2011 12:33 PM MST up reply actions 2 recs

You know what's funny?

My original plan was to use a picture of a Suns dancer to make this topic sexier, but went with the nerd pic instead. Glad you guys fulfilled the glaring need for hot chicks here.

Blogging Suns basketball for Bright Side of the Sun from California wine country.
Twitter: @EastBayRaymundo

by East Bay Ray on Jul 24, 2011 12:47 PM MST up reply actions

unfortunately

it doesn’t work that way. the pic ray showed is a picture of the nuclear accountant.

by 2NASHTY on Jul 24, 2011 1:07 PM MST up reply actions

I wish I looked half as sexy as that man.

Grant Hill eats MVPs for breakfast.

by NashMV3 on Jul 24, 2011 1:22 PM MST up reply actions

I'm so ripped that

here in swimtrunks I’d get banned.

It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.

by Jim Coughenour on Jul 24, 2011 1:48 PM MST up reply actions 2 recs

**Correction

This should have contained the following…

I’m so ripped that

if I posted a picture of myself….

here in swimtrunks I’d get banned.

Epic fail. Not about the picture part, about the posting ability…

It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.

by Jim Coughenour on Jul 24, 2011 1:51 PM MST up reply actions

sounds better the other way.

by 2NASHTY on Jul 24, 2011 2:00 PM MST up reply actions

I'd let this woman blow up my pipeline anyday.

Grant Hill eats MVPs for breakfast.

by NashMV3 on Jul 24, 2011 1:31 PM MST up reply actions

Impressive.

Damn my stupid brain for telling me to be an engineer…

True story -

My friend suffered a severe head injury which required brain surgery. While he was in recovery (still at the hospital mind you), he decided that he should become a doctor.

He’s a doctor now.

Funny time to make a life path decision…

It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.

by Jim Coughenour on Jul 24, 2011 12:30 PM MST up reply actions

Just yesterday

I made a life decision to not make life decisions. Today, you’ve made me reconsider my life decision…

Grant Hill eats MVPs for breakfast.

by NashMV3 on Jul 24, 2011 1:23 PM MST up reply actions

true storry

when i studied engineering there was a girl in my class. I think she had a name but we all just called her the girl.

by 2NASHTY on Jul 24, 2011 1:59 PM MST up reply actions

THAT was funny

Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun

by Alex Laugan on Jul 24, 2011 2:24 PM MST up reply actions

lol, nice

by BringBackBarkley17 on Jul 24, 2011 2:45 PM MST up reply actions

LOL

Grant Hill eats MVPs for breakfast.

by NashMV3 on Jul 24, 2011 4:24 PM MST up reply actions

Haha!!!

by 7footer on Jul 24, 2011 5:14 PM MST up reply actions

OMG that was 3rd semester calc for me

there was only 1 girl laboring in that sausage factory. She was only “meh” but in higher mathematics “meh” is pretty amazing.

Voted most likely to say "I told you so"

by jc79 on Jul 25, 2011 1:29 PM MST up reply actions

I found

that in upper level math and science classes the ratio was slightly better but junior and senior engineering courses it was literally like 10 to 1 .

by 2NASHTY on Jul 25, 2011 3:24 PM MST up reply actions

on a side note there was a Gorgeous middle eastern girl in my Calc 3 class

by 2NASHTY on Jul 25, 2011 3:26 PM MST up reply actions

lucky bastard

by BringBackBarkley17 on Jul 25, 2011 9:33 PM MST up reply actions

It seems to me that Steve Nash may not completely know what he is talking about. When you say specific players are really good, and that’s why they get paid well, but they have bad records, it contradicts itself.

Halloween 2011 Guide

by couturepatti on Jul 23, 2011 7:08 PM MST reply actions

Some of these things are quite nebulous....

For instance, take the Elton Brand vs. Amare comparison…. Is it even remotely realistic to think that if the Knicks had signed Brand to a $100 million dollar contract last season that they would have had the juice to divert the course that trainwreck was steam boating? Does anyone really think that swapping Amare for Brand would have made the Knicks better?

Does anyone think Luol Deng is better than Nash?

Maybe I’m being fatuous, but I think that statistics such as these are good general guidelines, but fail to capture the complete picture.

These types of statistics support the logic that 20 minimum salary players would be better than a star in terms of dollar per stat. A team can only have a certain number of players and a certain number of them on the floor at one time, so one Nash is better than a litter of Dowdells…

It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.

by Jim Coughenour on Jul 23, 2011 9:25 PM MST reply actions

These types of statistics support the logic that 20 minimum salary players would be better than a star in terms of dollar per stat.

I don’t think that is true. Most of the advanced stats are per minute, which means unless 20 minimum salary players play more minutes than a star, it isn’t by definition possible.

The value of these metrics is in the insight that efficiency matters, and that basketball is a game in which almost imperceptible differences matter. In basketball, players accumulate so many statistics, it is hard to separate them out, and a statistical difference is often so small it is hard to spot. The marginal value of a player is simply far larger than people realise, and .8 of a rebound per 36 minutes makes a massive difference, in the same way that .330 and .345 do in baseball, despite that being about one hit every 2-4 weeks difference.

by MMotherwell on Jul 24, 2011 3:34 AM MST up reply actions

Numbers like this can strip away a lot of our bias too.

I agree that win shares or O rating/D rating aren’t be all/end all stats, but they come closer to measuring true value than simple points, rebounds and assists per game. True shooting and Effective FG also do a better job of measuring shooting than raw FG%.

Jim, I don’t think these stats support your “20 minimum salary players” statement at all, as MM has already explained well. What they say to me is that it’s critical to make smart choices when signing players to these gigantic deals, lest you end up with a Gilbert Arenas, Brandon Roy or Kenyon Martin. As for Amare, given the legitimate concerns about his health, I reckon that his current rating here will be his high water mark with the Knicks. In another year or two, he’ll be down on the bottom rung with the other injured guys.

Blogging Suns basketball for Bright Side of the Sun from California wine country.
Twitter: @EastBayRaymundo

by East Bay Ray on Jul 24, 2011 8:34 AM MST up reply actions

Neither of you actually answered my value questions,

you just lambasted my stance.

But I think I may have been vague or misleading with my statement, because both of you misunderstood what I was trying to convey.

What I was contending was that in terms of dollars per stat (the part that you block quoted), low paid players will always have an advantage. Young stars on rookie contracts, blossoming role players, and veterans on minimum contracts score higher in terms of dollars per win share. Once they hit the big time the ratio goes down.

Kevin Love – $4.6 million – 11.4 WS – .40 million per win share
James Harden – $4.6 million – 7.4 WS – .62 million per win share
Jared Dudley – $4.3 million – 5.6 WS – .77 million per win share
Grant Hill – $3.2 million – 4.4 WS – .73 million per win share

Steve Nash – $11.7 million – 8.0 WS – 1.46 million per win share

Sorry if I was unclear about that, but I think it’s fairly unquestionable.

In terms of advanced statistics – I think they are good general guidelines, but don’t always tell the full story. They are imperfect. Kind of like I said here -

I think that statistics such as these are good general guidelines, but fail to capture the complete picture.

Does anyone else agree with my assertion, or am I on an island?

Also, if you would please answer my value questions I would greatly appreciate it.

It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.

by Jim Coughenour on Jul 24, 2011 12:26 PM MST up reply actions

Well, yeah. Low paid players have the advantage in win shares per dollar.

But low paid players aren’t the point of this post. It’s about success rates when teams sign players to max or near max deals.

And,

but I think that statistics such as these are good general guidelines, but fail to capture the complete picture.

I agree, and don’t think I or anyone else here ever claimed they do “capture the complete picture.”

Blogging Suns basketball for Bright Side of the Sun from California wine country.
Twitter: @EastBayRaymundo

by East Bay Ray on Jul 24, 2011 12:58 PM MST up reply actions

It's definitely a gamble...

but one that has to be taken.

How many teams win titles without having a player in the top 30 on their payroll?

You still never answered my questions Raymundo….

I think you are also right in your contention, we’re just mincing words.

A better analysis might be dollars per roster space to contend for a championship for these upper echelon players. While players like Lebron and Nash are at a fair level for their magnitude, players like Amare and JJ are overpaid.

But how much financial impact did Amare have last season… It’s not all about wins and losses, Amare brought vivacity to that franchise.

Just looking at win shares is narrow minded because I’ll give you Luol Deng and Elton Brand over Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire 12 days a week.

It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.

by Jim Coughenour on Jul 24, 2011 1:46 PM MST up reply actions

Is it even remotely realistic to think that if the Knicks had signed Brand to a $100 million dollar contract last season that they would have had the juice to divert the course that trainwreck was steam boating? Does anyone really think that swapping Amare for Brand would have made the Knicks better?
Does anyone think Luol Deng is better than Nash?

No, no and no. But now we’re back to “these numbers don’t tell the full story”, which I thought was already understood.

How many teams win titles without having a player in the top 30 on their payroll?

None. Look, I’m not saying that signing players to huge contracts is a bad idea, and of course you need a player or players worthy of a fat contract to be a contender. I count around a dozen players on this list who I’d be happy to have on the Suns, even with their salary. But you can also set your franchise back big-time if you make the wrong choice and sign a player who isn’t worthy. Value and efficient use of funds and cap space are critically important to building a sustainably successful franchise, and will likely become more so when the new labor deal is finally passed.

Blogging Suns basketball for Bright Side of the Sun from California wine country.
Twitter: @EastBayRaymundo

by East Bay Ray on Jul 24, 2011 2:18 PM MST up reply actions

Good thing we've got Blastcap Bob running the show

Value and efficient use of funds and cap space are critically important to building a sustainably successful franchise, and will likely become more so when the new labor deal is finally passed.

Hopefully the new CBA will award franchises that are cutthroat and penurious, because Nash’s loyalty has been fruitless, while JJ, Amare, and Marion all had better success last season….

Maybe I’m biased or discriminating, but I think that a CBA that favors screwing the players is advantageous to Sarver….

It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.

by Jim Coughenour on Jul 24, 2011 8:59 PM MST up reply actions

What players has Sarver screwed over?

Blogging Suns basketball for Bright Side of the Sun from California wine country.
Twitter: @EastBayRaymundo

by East Bay Ray on Jul 24, 2011 9:04 PM MST up reply actions

yes, good question Ray.

Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun

by Alex Laugan on Jul 24, 2011 9:22 PM MST up reply actions

Please see answer below.

It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.

by Jim Coughenour on Jul 24, 2011 9:32 PM MST up reply actions

Nash has won 2 mvps

while playing for less than maximum money…

Amare left because of money…

JJ left because of money…

Marion left because of money…

Maybe it’s more about timing than actual dollar signs, but that seems like an alarming trend. I don’t think all of these players are worth what they wanted, but I think that Phoenix botched the negotations with each of them.

They actually traded Nash before he came back (!!) and he won mvps under a bargain basement contract! MVPs are usually well compensated.

But then again, I am fully aware of my bias against Bargain Basement Bob, so view this post accordingly.

It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.

by Jim Coughenour on Jul 24, 2011 9:31 PM MST up reply actions

well Jim, those are three of the highest paid players in the game of basketball so I just can’t agree with the “screwed over” reference. None of them got screwed over. Not one of them.

And then there’s poor little Steve Nash. Boo hoo.

Sarver signed Nash, he of the assumed degenerative back condition, to a crazy big contract WITH PHOENIX in 2004 – so crazy big that deep-pockets-best-owner-in-the-history-of-the-world Cuban couldn’t make himself match or beat. Nash was considered wildly overpaid that summer. And then Nash was signed to a $22 mill extension at the age of 36. And in neither case was he forced to do anything. He signed both of those contracts while available on the open market. Anyone could have given him more money. So there’s no way in h-e-double-hockey-sticks Nash has been “screwed”. He was given an opportunity to become a god, to win 2 MVPs and have an entire team revolve around his skills for going on 8 years now, despite not carrying the team to a ring or even the Finals.

I’d say Nash owes his career to Phoenix, just as Phoenix owes a lot of ticket sales to Nash. Neither side is screwed in any way, shape or form.

Thank you, Jime, for being so blatantly wrong for once. I so often have to agree with you, it’s a nice change of pace.

Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun

by Alex Laugan on Jul 25, 2011 6:53 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs

Who's this Jime guy?

Thank you, Jime, for being so blatantly wrong for once.

What did he say that provoked such vitriole from you?

For realz tho…

If you think that Sarver has established a record of fair compensation for players or being a master at negotiating contracts without alienating people then you and I definitely have a fundamental disagreement.

But that’s ok. I’ve already been wrong about at least 100 other things so far today so this could very possibly be another one to add to the list.

If we all agreed about everything 100% of the time this wouldn’t be a very entertaining diversion, would it?

Oh, also you’re welcome. :-)

It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.

by Jim Coughenour on Jul 25, 2011 9:22 AM MST up reply actions

If I ask my boss for a salary he's unwilling to pay me

And I go get that salary somewhere else after he declines to give it to me, nobody has screwed anyone over. The reason Shawn Marion is a champion now is because he was willing to sign with the Mavs for a fair contract that paid him a reasonable $7.3M last year. His salary in his last full year in Phoenix was $15M. Contrast that with Joe Johnson, who will never be a champion because he insists on maximizing his salary at the expense of his team’s ability to pay enough other players to be any better than annual playoff fodder.

Blogging Suns basketball for Bright Side of the Sun from California wine country.
Twitter: @EastBayRaymundo

by East Bay Ray on Jul 25, 2011 10:02 AM MST up reply actions

Not the contract now,

but the contract then…

Hindsight is 20/20, but the Suns had a chance (once upon a time in a kingdom far, far away) to sign JJ for a pittance and Sarver’s crackerjack negotiations completely botched the deal and turned JJ off.

We will see who is right…. I judge an owner’s job by championships. Sarver has none so he is not doing a good job.

Shouldn’t that be the goal and the criteria? I don’t understand why there is such a defense for an owner that hasn’t delivered on his goals…

annual playoff fodder.

Is what the Suns have been for 43 years. If Sarver had “overpaid” for any of these players they would be no worse off than they are presently, because presently they suck.

It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.

by Jim Coughenour on Jul 25, 2011 11:59 AM MST up reply actions

well, Jime, let me rebut…

to sign JJ for a pittance and Sarver’s crackerjack negotiations completely botched the deal and turned JJ off

That pittance was a demand in the 2004 offseason – the offseason in which the Suns were coming off 29 wins and Sarver already spent $66 mil on Nash and somewhere north of $40 mil on Q. JJ demanded a 5 yr, 50 million extension as a player who rated as one of the least productive starters in the NBA (2003-2004 season). Sure, he was 22 or 21 and full of talent, but so were dozens of other busts in the 2000s that I could rattle off if given enough time.

Sarver capped his offer to JJ at 45 mill over 5 years, which royally pissed off JJ to the point where JJ never wanted to even talk about signing again. Sarver admits this was his biggest mistake (per an interview in 2009), being too stubborn over 1 mil a year. But geez, he’d already spent over $100 mill on free agents, had JJ by the short hairs for another 2 seasons and was probably looking at the guy’s stats and shaking his head. And maybe, just maybe, JJ was a little stubborn himself?

but anyway, I’m coming off as a Sarver apologist when I’m really just trying to look at the “JJ blunder” in an objective light.

Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun

by Alex Laugan on Jul 25, 2011 2:00 PM MST up reply actions

(and Jim, I hope you know I’m poking fun at myself when I refer to you as Jime. It’s an admission on my part that I know I’m full of Sh*t).

Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun

by Alex Laugan on Jul 25, 2011 5:34 PM MST up reply actions

another rebut, Jime

I judge an owner’s job by championships. Sarver has none so he is not doing a good job.

Well, he’s won a couple of WNBA championships, if that counts.

Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun

by Alex Laugan on Jul 25, 2011 2:01 PM MST up reply actions

What's the WNBA?:P

I hope you guys don’t mind me jumping into your debate.

I’m on the side that thinks Sarver didn’t screw Amar’e and Marion.

What happened with JJ is very arguable though. Even Sarver admitted that he could have gone about it better as you said. None of us know what happened behind those doors then. For all we know, Sarver could have called Joe Johnson a sausagehead during the negotiations and because of that he screwed any chance he had at negotiating a reasonable deal with him.

I agree with Jim in that the responsibility of an owner is to win a Championship. Sarver had many chances and he screwed up over and over again, however there were times he made good moves, but overall he didn’t get the job done.

In the NBA you can’t afford to pay Boris Diaw 9mil for 6 years and Marcus Banks 5 mil for 4 years and expect to win a Championship. Sarver isn’t cheap, he just hasn’t been smart with where he put his money.

However, overpaying a player after one good year is different than overpaying a player after many good years. In this league, a team must overpay in order to win a Championship. It’s just a matter of who they choose to overpay.

Sarver’s offer was reasonable, but Amar’e wanted an NBA contract, not a football one. Maybe that was one of those situations where it was ok to overpay a player, but Sarver didn’t think so. Yet, he goes out and gets Chill, Turk and Warrick for about the same price and same risks, I don’t get it?

They say it’s a business and it is, but every owner who cares about a Championship must also consider the basketball side when making those business moves. Boris Diaw and Marcus Banks looked like basketball moves while the Amar’e deal looked like a business move. Shouldn’t they had been the other way around?

I don’t think Sarver has found that balance yet, he is still somewhat of a new owner, but he’s learning very slowly.

In this league, an owner must overpay to get a Championship. That’s just the way it’s done now. Yeah, it doesn’t always work, but if they don’t try then they’re team isn’t going anywhere. It’d be cool if the lock-out could fix this, but I don’t know.

It’s also possible that Sarver doesn’t believe he should have to pay more than he wants to for a star. I could see that. He’s either stubborn and doesn’t believe that’s the way it should be or he’s ignorant and doesn’t realize that most people aren’t like Nash and Hill who are willing to take less than they deserve.

I’m sorry this comment had to be so long.

Don't trade Dudley!

by Beavis 25 on Jul 25, 2011 7:42 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs

That was the smartest thing that

anybody ever said about anything.

It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.

by Jim Coughenour on Jul 25, 2011 9:33 PM MST up reply actions

nah, great post, Beav

by BringBackBarkley17 on Jul 25, 2011 9:37 PM MST up reply actions

Unbelievable, Beavis.

I’d like to see Omaha outword this. And I couldn’t agree more.

Am I allowed to call Sarver a Notorious Dingbat?

Grant Hill eats MVPs for breakfast.

by NashMV3 on Jul 27, 2011 12:11 PM MST up reply actions

In the NBA you can’t afford to pay Boris Diaw 9mil for 6 years and Marcus Banks 5 mil for 4 years and expect to win a Championship. Sarver isn’t cheap, he just hasn’t been smart with where he put his money.

Now that I think about it, unless you’re LA or Boston… you can’t afford to get away with.

Don't trade Dudley!

by Beavis 25 on Jul 27, 2011 1:44 PM MST up reply actions

or Dallas. Don’t forget Dallas.

Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun

by Alex Laugan on Jul 27, 2011 3:05 PM MST up reply actions

totally agree, Alex. GREAT post.

by BringBackBarkley17 on Jul 25, 2011 9:35 PM MST up reply actions

What I was contending was that in terms of dollars per stat (the part that you block quoted), low paid players will always have an advantage. Young stars on rookie contracts, blossoming role players, and veterans on minimum contracts score higher in terms of dollars per win share. Once they hit the big time the ratio goes down.

Not true, depending on the system. In fact the VERY best players are usually the most underpaid – that or they are rookie scale players.

In either case, that is because:

1. The top 20% of players produce most of the wins.

2. The cap on individual salary means that a player Like LeBron is paid a capped maximum amount, despite producing far more than he is paid.

http://wagesofwins.net/2011/07/05/just-desserts-overpaid-underpaid-remix/ is the WP48 list, and LeBron is “worth” $38 million, and paid $14.

I think that statistics such as these are good general guidelines, but fail to capture the complete picture.

That statement is either a truism, in that NOTHING captures the complete picture, or incomplete as a statement, in that it offers no explanation of how close to complete the picture is. As an example, a building which has not had the letterbox built is technically incomplete, but you can live in it just fine.

So lets agree that stats don’t show the complete picture, and move the debate to what percentage you see stats explaining. 10%? 80%? Give me a number for incomplete here.

by MMotherwell on Jul 25, 2011 7:54 PM MST up reply actions

I was just thinking about this...

and am I staggeringly ignorant, or is there a way to receive notification of a comment to your story or comment via moble notification?

I know you guys are probably sick of me, but I love hearing from you… If a mobile notification could be set up to alert me of your remonstrations/adulations I would love it!!….

It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.

by Jim Coughenour on Jul 24, 2011 1:59 PM MST reply actions

If you listen closely

You can hear people say “dammit, Jim” when they reply to your comments, so you can probably use that as notification.

My non-facetious answer is that there is no such notification. You just have to check back on the site.

Blogging Suns basketball for Bright Side of the Sun from California wine country.
Twitter: @EastBayRaymundo

by East Bay Ray on Jul 24, 2011 2:39 PM MST up reply actions

by 2NASHTY on Jul 24, 2011 3:06 PM MST up reply actions

Why don't we have a notification?

Are we lacking $6 million dollar man technology?

Inquiring minds want to know…

It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.

by Jim Coughenour on Jul 24, 2011 9:02 PM MST up reply actions

no

clearly we lack tribbles…or have too many…come to think of it, it’s not that clear at all.

by 2NASHTY on Jul 25, 2011 1:08 AM MST up reply actions

What do you think would be fair value for each player next season?

Maybe something like this

Nash- 13,000,000
Gortat- 8,000,000
Hill – 6,000,000
Frye- 5,500,000
Dudley- 5,500,000
J-chill 4,000,000

Didn’t bother doing anyone else. Nash, Gortat, HIll, And Dudley are underpaid. Frye lived up to his paycheck last season IMO. Every other player on the roster is probably overpaid.

by dontTradeAaronNelson! on Jul 24, 2011 5:38 PM MST reply actions

fair value? you mean, if they could sign a new contract? Or just, what contract passes “the smell test”?

If you’re asking the latter, I’d go as high a 10-11 mil on Gortat and then pay Nash and Hill on a per game basis that prorates to the number’s you’ve got if they last the whole season. However, if you actually pay Nash and Hill $19 million, you’ve hit almost half the owners’ requested salary cap for next season.

Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun

by Alex Laugan on Jul 24, 2011 8:03 PM MST up reply actions

I think that Nash is probably fairly compensated,

or even overpaid (by a $ per WS metric). The Suns weren’t very good last year.

He would be worth more to a franchise with a win now attitude. Sarver is more of a lose now type of guy.

I’ll take bets with anyone that thinks Nash will still be a Sun entering the 2012 season,

It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.

by Jim Coughenour on Jul 24, 2011 9:21 PM MST up reply actions

Sarver is more of a lose now type of guy

if you mean, “lose now” in order to start over sooner than later and get new superstars that eventually win a championship, then I’d probably agree with you.

if you mean “lose now” because he doesn’t care about winning, I do not agree at all.

Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun

by Alex Laugan on Jul 24, 2011 9:24 PM MST up reply actions

I'll take that bet

20 internet bucks a shot of cheap internet whiskey and a micro brew internet IPA. nash will be a sun, and that’s not my obvious bias speaking. If and I mean IF, he leaves, it will be by choice to a team like the clippers.

by 2NASHTY on Jul 25, 2011 1:18 AM MST up reply actions

FWIW

Nash was paid 10.3M last year and produced 8 WS. That would put him at 7th ($1.29M per WS) on the list behind Pau Gasol and ahead of Chris Bosh and Dirk Nowitzki.

Re-sign BAMF.

by brian13 on Jul 25, 2011 9:33 AM MST up reply actions

I had him at $11.7 million ($1.46M per WS)

Is ESPN reporting next season’s salary already? Did it go up by $1.4 million?

That list is just for big contracts. Dudley, Hill, and probably several other players were a better dollar to win share ratio than MVSteve.

If we took the 50 biggest contracts (I would assume Nash would be included), then Nash would probably rank pretty well for value.

It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.

by Jim Coughenour on Jul 25, 2011 12:09 PM MST up reply actions

Yeah.. that's his salary for next year.

Here’s the list for the players that were here the whole season.

Childress – $4.64M per WS
Nash – $1.29M
Warrick – $1.25M
Lopez – $1.24M
Frye – $1.11M
Hill – $0.76M
Dudley – $0.38M

Re-sign BAMF.

by brian13 on Jul 25, 2011 2:00 PM MST up reply actions

How is a $ per WS metric rated anyway?

What would constitute a good score?

It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.

by Jim Coughenour on Jul 25, 2011 12:11 PM MST up reply actions

I'm not sure

I’d say it would have to be measured relative to other players making similar money. Otherwise it would look like Dudley is 3 times as valuable as Nash.

Re-sign BAMF.

by brian13 on Jul 25, 2011 2:03 PM MST up reply actions

Rookie contracts would have to be measured separately as well.

Re-sign BAMF.

by brian13 on Jul 25, 2011 2:04 PM MST up reply actions

Just for fun

Here’s a list of PG’s who made 7M and up last season. Total salaries are in parenthesis…

Andre Miller – 1.04 ($7.3M)
Chris Paul – 1.11 ($14.9M)
Jameer Nelson – 1.18 ($7.8M)
Steve Nash – 1.29 ($10.3M)
Jason Kidd – 1.35 ($8.6M)
Rajon Rondo – 1.38 ($9.1M)
Raymond Felton – 1.39 ($7.5M)
Chauncey Billups – 1.64 ($13.2M)
Tony Parker – 1.65 ($13.5M)
Deron Williams – 2.05 ($14.9M)
Devin Harris – 2.14 ($9.0M)
Jose Calderon – 2.43 ($9.0M)
Kirk Hinrich – 3.00 ($9.0M)
Baron Davis – 4.64 ($13.0M)
Mo Williams – 9.30 ($9.3M)