SB Nation Arizona Editor's Pick
View of One Fan: Rebuilding the Suns Through The Draft
by TruthTelling on Jan 29, 2012 11:21 AM MST
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PrintDo you remember the last few drafts leading up to the Suns selection of Amare Stoudemire?
Suns.com used to provide us with great coverage of the workouts. There was excitement in the fan base leading up to the draft. Ever since the Nash era began we were shut out from the draft experience. Every year we were disappointed with the unfancy pick or straight selling our pick for cash. A truly horrible experience as a fan. Remember that year they presented Amare Stoudemire to us as our draft pick after they sold our pick again because he came back from micro-fracture surgery?
Do you know the guy whose rights we sold? I give you a hint. Mike D'Antoni said he could not play that player because he could not shoot.
Anyone who played NBA 2k11 had the pleasure of consistently being reminded by the announcers that the Suns traded away draft picks for Rajon Rondo, Luol Deng, Rudy Fernandez, Nate Robinson, Serge Ibaka and so on. Good times being a Suns fan, going from great draft coverage and excitement to a strategy of pissing off the fanbase every year.
NBA Draft Asset Generator
The NBA draft is the only true asset generator for NBA teams. You get a free chance to improve the value of your team every year with little risk due to the rookie scale contracts. Using the draft is esentially to stay competetive and to rebuild a team. The Suns have not made use of the draft for the last 10 years basically and that is why they are in the situation they are in right now. A terrible team with no future to look forward to as a fan. I could fully appreciate our team even when they are losing and play bad basketball if I had something to look forward to down the road.
Do you remember Amare Stoudemire's rookie season or sophomore season? We were not a good team, in the second year we finished #7 in the lottery and sold the pick which could have been Andre Iguodala just so we could hand out a bigger contract to Quentin Richardson.
And that is the mistake. The Suns front office in the past and Lon Babby right now think that free agency is the way to build a team and do not seem to value the draft. The problem with free agency is that really good players usually never hit the open market in the NBA and if they do there are many teams interested in signing them so you have to offer an attractive situation. Great players want to play with great players.
Other than that most teams are hopelessly trying to sign one mediocre or even above average free agent after another and keep drafting late in the lottery. The majority of free agent signings in the NBA eventually turn out to be bad contracts that no team wants to pick up. This happened to the Suns when they handed out a big deal to Josh Childress who had not played in the NBA for years and another big deal to Channing Frye.
Contruction of Good Teams
I keep seeing people on message boards repeating the words of Lon Babby that good teams do not build through the draft and that Oklahoma City is an exception so let us take a look at the good teams in the NBA:
San Antonio drafted Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parket, DeJuan Blair, Tiago Splitter.
Miami drafted Dwyane Wade, Udonis Haslem, Mario Chalmers, Norris Cole and previously Michael Beasley who they had to get rid off to afford the signings of James and Bosh.
Dallas technically they did not draft Dirk Nowitzki but that is a moot point. They had a draft day deal set up to get Dirk Nowitzki so full credit to them. They also later drafted Josh Howard, Rodrigue Beaubois.
LA Lakers acquired Kobe Byrant and Andrew Bynum through the draft.
Memphis acquired Gasol, Gay, Conley, Mayo through the draft.
Utah acquired Kanter, Hayward, Burks, Millsap through the draft and previous to that Deron Williams who they turned into more assets when pressured to do so.
Denver acquired JR Smith, Ty Lawson, Nene through the draft.
Portland acquired Aldridge, Roy, Oden, Batum through the draft.
Oklahoma City acquired Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, Harden through the draft.
Chicago Bulls got Derek Rose, Joakim Noah and Luol Deng.
Orlando Magic got Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, Ryan Anderson, JJ Reddick.
Indiana Pacers got Hibbert, Granger and George.
Clippers got Griffin, Jordan and how did they acquire Chris Paul? Giving up Aminu and Gordon.
Atlanta acquired Josh Smith, Al Horford, Marvin Williams and Jeff Teague through the draft.
Philadelphia acquired Iguodala, Holiday, Louis Williams, Meeks, Turner, Thaddeus Young through the draft.
Boston acquired Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo and got Kevin Garnett by trading Al Jefferson who they drafted and acquired Ray Allen by trading their #5 draft pick.
Those are all currently over .500 teams in the NBA with the exception of Houston the only team in the NBA over .500 that did not acquire the key players in the draft but still they are filled with players on rookie deals.
Now you take a look at our very own Phoenix Suns and you will see that Markieff Morris and Robin Lopez are the only players on this team that we acquired through the draft. Everyone else was acquired as a free agent or through non draft-related trades. Go figure that Robin Lopez might not be on the Suns soon.
Rebuilding through the Draft does not always work
Yes Lon Babby is right. Rebuilding through the draft might mean that your team stays bad for several years but this comes down to how good your team is at drafting and as you can see above it ultimately essential for running a good team. The San Antonio Spurs do not just stay good by managing the contracts as Robert Sarver tried to tell us in the past. They are good at using the draft to keep their team in the mix and keep assets on their roster.
Obviously there are teams like Golden State who stay bad for years but usually that is due to one of the following reasons:
1. Those teams spend cap room on free agents that do not have enough impact to make a real difference for the team which keeps those teams from ever truly hitting rock bottom which increases chances to draft a franchise player.
2. Those teams consistently make bad draft choices.
3. Both of the above combined.
As a Suns fan we face the risk of our front office not blowing things up right now and ending up at outside of the top 5 picks and then use our capspace to sign good but not great free agents like Wilson Chandler to big deals so we will again look at a late lottery pick next year while not having the capspace to sign a franchise changing free agent if one ever becomes available or simply not being attractive to them.
Trading Steve Nash
Trading Steve Nash is esential. Another blog on this site a couple of days ago summarized that trading Steve Nash accomplishes nothing. That is wrong. While it would be nice to have Steve Nash leadership around to help develop young guys, you also have to consider that Steve Nash will keep us out of the top 5. Plus Steve Nash allows the Suns to run a very specific type of offense that they will not be able to execute in the post-Nash era. Players like Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat need to develop moves in an offense that requires more than shooting open jumpers or executing a pick and roll with Steve Nash.
If you could trade Steve Nash to Utah for Devin Harris and one or two of their draft picks or to Indiana for Collison and draft picks you have to do it right now. You have to stay in the race for the #1 pick to have a chance at a quick rebuilding process after this year. The value that is coming back in a Nash trade is not the only value, it is also the value of the Suns' very own pick that increases dramatically.
Value of Marcin Gortat
It is not easy to deal a center when the franchise with the exception of one great year of Shaquille O'Neal has been chronically lacking a center. But there are things to consider. The Suns are some years away from being relevant again. Gortat has by far the highest trade value on the team and his value might never be higher than what it is right now. He soon turns 28 so by the time the Suns are halfway through a 5 years rebuilding process he would be 30 and looking for a new contract which you can figure will pay him more than 10 million dollars per year. You come to the conclusion that Marcin Gortat to a team that is further along with the rebuilding process like for example Minnesota has much higher value than to the Suns. Exploring his trade value could go a long way to make a future changing trade.
Free Agency Plan 2012
With Love, Gallinari and Westbrook off the market there is not much hope that the Suns can land a difference maker. Dwight Howard and Deron Williams openly have their list of preferred destinations out there and the Suns are on none of them. It is not even a given that they will be free agents and if they do you figure they will go to the new Brooklyn team or one of them will go to Dallas rather than to a struggling Suns team with an owner that the media loves to portay as the worst owner in pro sports.
Eric Gordon and Roy Hibbert did not get extensions or rather declined them. This means nothing as their teams still have the rights to match any offer and certainly will. The best player that might be available is Brook Lopez and would he want to come here if we have Gortat and just might have traded away his twin brother?
NBA Draft 2012
The only thing to look forward to right now. The higher the pick the better this has always been true. I keep reading how some fans say we got Marion and Amare at #9 so we should not worry about our draft position but that is non-sense. We got relatively lucky those years as other teams failed to pick the best player infront of us but in general franchise chaning players very rarely are found outside of the top 3 and the rate gets lower with draft position.
Two things that every Sun fan knows are:
1. The Suns have never had a #1 pick.
2. The Suns have never won a championship.
That is not coincidence. Twice the Suns lost a coinflip for the #1 pick and missed out on Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and David Robinson. I am not being unreasonable when I say that the Suns would have at least 1 championship by now had they won one of the #1 picks.
March Madness is still weeks away but here is my current list of draft prospects in order that I like. It is my own evaluation for the Suns and not what I think the actual draft order will be like.
1. PF Anthony Davis - Kentucky
6'10 at least with extremly long arms. Averages almost 5 blocks per game and close to 2 steals. He is a mix of Shawn Marion and Marcus Camby at the PF position. He needs to get stronger and he will probably still grow. Around Anthony Davis you can probably build a great defensive team.
2. C/F Andre Dummond - UCONN
6'11 251 His game is similiar to young Amare Stoudemire with slightly better ballhandling and passing and he is considerably bigger.
3. G/F Michael Kidd-Gilchrist - Kentucky
6'7 230 and extremly athletic. He reminds me right now of Andre Iguodala with lesser passing. He is the poster-child of a "lead by example" and would be perfect guy to rebuild around. Keepin mind he won't turn 19 until shortly before next season.
4. SG Bradley Beal - Florida
6'4 200lbs this guy knows how to score. He has an arsenal of moves and his jumper looks like he will be a very good shooter eventually. He rebounds the ball really well for his size.
5. SF Harrison Barnes - North Carolina
6'9 223 he is clearly a SF. He has nice all-around game but he is not a great athlete or very explosive. He could be the next Paul Pierce if he gets more aggressive. Or he could be the next Glenn Robinson or just a role player. This guy has question marks about his ceiling as a player for the position he is projected to be picked. He would be ideal for a bad team that is close to being good and has more pieces already in place.
6. SG Jeremy Lamb - UCONN
6'5 190 Reminds me of a bigger more athletic version of Rip Hamilton. Moves very well without the ball. He would fit well with a PG that likes to control things, not sure how well he would play if the ball is put into his hands.
7. F Perry Jones - Baylor
6'11 220lbs maybe taller. Very long and loves to shoot from the outside. This guy needs to get tougher and stronger and start rebounding like crazy. He has the physical tools to be the #1 pick but questions about his position will hurt his stock. In the NBA he has to be a PF but his skillset in college makes him look like a SF at times. Pray he turns into the next KG and not into the next Anthony Randolph if you pick the guy.
8. PF Thomas Robinson - Kansas
6'9 240 this guy is an aggressive PF that is athletic and wants to dunk everything. He plays very much like Amare Stoudemire and rebounds the ball well in college. Good kid too, but he looks a little bit short and he is also already a junior I think so you expect him to be more advanced. On defense he is not much of a shotblocking presence averaging just 1.1 compared to Anthony Davis who puts up 4.7
9. PF Jared Sullinger - Ohio State
6'9 270 another short PF. In college he is a monster in the post. Al Jefferson off college basketball unfortunately his defense is non-existant and he is an average athlete. Blocks less than 1 shot per game.
10. G Austin Rivers - Duke
6'4 combo guard. Extremly talented, fast and athletic isolation guard. Think Jamal Crawford, Monta Ellis, Lou Williams, Allen Iverson. He comes across a little bit arrogant. He is the son of Celtics coach Doc Rivers. Explosive first step and good shooter. He has an up and down freshman season but talent is there. He would be a good player to have on rebuilding project because he gives you at least someone who can score and have big games. Attitude is the only question here.
11. SF Quincy Miller - Baylor
6'9 200 small forward. He draws comparisons to Kevin Durant. He is long, athletic and skilled. He was once projected to be a potential #1 pick overall but tore his ACL more than a year ago. His knee is the issue here but considering he was just 18 years old when that happened he should have had a good recovery.
12. F Terrence Jones - Kentucky
6'9 forward. I did not like him much last year but he is playing really efficient all-around basketball for a talented Kentucky team. Shooting almost 40% from college 3 and averaging nearly 2 blocks per game along his teammate Davis who averages another 5 almost. Could he be what Earl Clark should have been?
13. G/F LeBryan Nash - Oklahoma State
6'7 same physique as Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Needs to work on his jumper. If he can do that and improve his ball-handling he would be better served as a shooting guard in the NBA probably just as MKG. Had a breakout game recently but a bad freshman season overall so far.
14. PG Myck Kabongo - Texas
6'2 shooting guard. A true PG, unselfish with good court vision and passing skills. He needs to improve his shooter and be more aggressive at times. He will be a good starting SG that might not get a lot of recognition. Raymond Felton might be a good comparison or Andre Miller / Rajon Rondo mold. He is a guy I am really hoping declares and that we can pick him up later in the first with an additional pick.
Clearly the top 5 is where we want to be. Sitting at #8 we would likely look at having to draft one of the power forwards that are there when we just drafted Markieff Morris last year. Although I do not think that Markieff projects as a good starter in the league I would not want to draft another PF with questionmarks right now.
NBA Draft 2013
I am not shocking you when I tell you that next year will not be pretty either. It will take more time to turn the franchise around. Unless we make the mistake to sign free agents to big contracts and end up in mediocrity again we should have a young team with some talented players but win few enough games to be in the hunt for the #1 pick and the prize in 2013 is promising
Shabazz Muhammad is a 6'6 shooting guard and currently chosing between some of the best college programs for his freshman season. He might actually go to Arizona. He is probably the most promising shooting guard prospect to enter the NBA since Kobe Bryant.
http://www.youtube.com/v/iZOKFfNU0Nk
Steve Nash Face of the Franchise
Many people argue that we cannot and will not trade Steve Nash because not only that he does not want it but also because Robert Sarver wants to keep him to sell tickets. As I can see our attendance this season is already horrible. The fan base that has shrunk in the Robert Sarver era is shrinking even more every day this team struggles to score 80 points while keeping an aging roster that offers the fan nothing. A young team at least offers us a chance to root for young players to develop and it keeps us interested to see what they can do on a game to game basis.
Keeping Steve Nash around much longer in this situation in my opinion will overall turn off the fanbase even more. Imagine we keep Steve Nash here in Phoenix for 2 more years in which we have no chance to make the playoffs but also no chance to draft in the top 10 and the front office only then when Nash retires decides to rebuild. Clearly that is the worst thing that could happen to the Suns fanbase.
Lets hope the 2012 Draft will be the first exciting draft for us since 2003.
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Great article
Well thought and presented take note people, have a rec from me
"SIR ALEX FERGUSON" Greatest Manager of all time
Andre Drummond recently said he is not joining the draft this coming summer
The Suns need to acquire another pick, preferably a 1st round pick because the way I see it Dwight, Deron and Paul are not going to sign here. Drafting at least a couple of 1st rounders(Suns pick + pick received from trade) would be a nice “Plan B” if their choice of free agents(both restricted and unrestricted) signs elsewhere or remain on their respective team. Also, 2013 offer a list interesting free agents like Harden and Ibaka.
My #1 choice from the list is Sullinger then Davis then Gilchrist.
Women were the reason I became a monk - and, ah, the reason I switched back... -Morte, Planescape Torment
Sullinger
Sullinger over Davis is insane. Sullinger is short, plays no defense and is not athletic.
I do not want a PF unless the player is special like Anthony Davis or maybe Perry Jones III. Remember we still have Markieff and he has similiar weaknesses as Sullinger (not athletic, rather short and does not block shots)
by TruthTelling on Jan 28, 2012 5:40 PM MST up reply actions
More picks the better
Yes the Suns should get more picks. I am hoping for 3 as I like Kabongo with a later pick.
Drummond said he is staying but that does not mean much. If he is projected as a top 3 pick we will see.
I really do not like Sullinger. He is undersized like Markieff. He plays no defense. He is not athletic.
Wow, well done
A few months ago a Pacers fan suggested a trade that would give them Nash and us Handbrough, some other guy and 1 or 2 1st round picks. I don’t really remember. Anyway, that would be good. I also think Nash in Utah would be good for them and us. If we can deal Nash for Harris and 2 picks then go for it.
I’m not sure what’s best for the franchise. Trading Nash for a couple 1st round picks and a decent player decreases the chances of the Suns striking out on a good player. Keeping him increases those chances.
If we traded Nash, the majority of this fanbase would be OK with it unless he went to an awful team. The only thing I can see wrong with trading Nash is loyalty. If we trade him when he doesn’t want to be traded because its his team and where his kids live, that’s not being very loyal to our franchise star. That could be considered selfish or it could be considered business. Do we owe Nash loyalty?
Either way, the FO is going to keep him for at least the rest of this season. If they don’t plan to re-sign him though, well then we might as well just trade him now. If they do re-sign him, then that’ll only hurt our franchise because we’ll still be a mediocre team at best unless we can land an Eric Gordon or Dwight Howard. I don’t want a couple more seasons of 40+wins. If the plan is to re-sign Nash next summer, then I want a couple seasons of 50+ wins or were wasting our time. I believe that you should either go all in and contend or all in and rebuild. No staying in between or nothing great will come out of it as we’ve experienced these past couple seasons.
After reading Wil’s article I thought there was no harm in keeping Nash. However, after seeing our options in next year’s free agency class, I’ve realized that there actually may be more harm in keeping him than trading him right now. Re-signing Steve Nash unless we can land an Eric Gordon or Dwight Howard is an awful move for this franchise going forward.
Don't trade Dudley!
I thought about it
We don’t owe Nash loyalty, but we should give it to him anyway and just keep him until his contract ends. The only thing we’re losing is a top 5 pick and a late 1st rounder or two. As long as we don’t re-sign him we can still get that top 5 pick.
Don't trade Dudley!
I've thought about trading Gortat before
I think they should put him on the market and see what offers will come up. If a mind-blowing offer comes up then yeah, trade him. Otherwise just keep him. There are not many centers out there of his caliber. Plus, we’ll need someone good on this roster to attract a free agent, especially if we don’t plan to re-sign Nash.
If we want to pursue Howard (Which I think we should), then put Gortat on the market right now and see if we can get a good 2 or 4 back. In fact, here’s a trade. Then in the summer we sign Wilson Chandler and throw a max contract at Dwight Howard and use our pick to select a PG or SG. We use whatever cash we have left over to fill the roster holes and re-sign Steve Nash. That’ll be going all in to contend.
Now if we want to pursue Gordon instead, then we keep Gortat. Even this plan is very risky because Stern isn’t going to just give Gordon away. If they do go with this plan and fail, then they better not re-sign Steve.
Don't trade Dudley!
I would consider trading Gortat if an amazing offer came up, but not for Millsap. I think we can get Millsap for less and Gortat is definitely more valuable. Nash and Frye or someone else for Harris and Millsap, I would consider.
by BringBackBarkley17 on Jan 29, 2012 12:23 PM MST up reply actions
This
Gortat has tremendous value in the league. Don’t trade him unless it is a blockbuster trade.
"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!
I think you're overrating Gortat.
"I don't lift weights because they are heavy, and I don't run because it makes me tired." - Charles Barkley
All I am saying
Is that he is our most valuable trade asset. I am not going to deal him just to suck more. He is a very good center…
"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!
He is good, top 15 for sure
maybe top 10, but he’s at best the 4th best player on a championship team.
"I don't lift weights because they are heavy, and I don't run because it makes me tired." - Charles Barkley
He is better than 4th IMO
"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!
How do you rate the big man anchoring a defense?
I guess since our defense ain’t great, 4th is fair enough, but I sure feel like with a real PF (or moving G to the 4 and playing another center) we would be a very good defensive squad.
Voted most likely to say "I told you so"
Well
There is no question we would be better. But I see him as more than just a defensive anchor. Sure, he isn’t going to carry a team offensively but he has some nice moves. And works well on the P&R as well, sets nice screens. He is just not a go to scorer but he is not limited offensively by any means. This is not the Ben Wallace of offense, for example.
"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!
very compelling article
and very, very well written. Total rec.
Yes, it appears that the most logical thing to do is to suck for picks for the next 2 years and hope all goes well as a result with a young, athletic team. I do agree with this, 100%. Whether the front office does it is another question.
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
I would love to have an athletic team
But honestly i don’t like any other PG not name Nash or Rubio, all the others PGs except for Rondo are such boring passers..so it would be hard watching an athletic without Nash
roses are red violets are blue, Michael Redd is coming for you!
by Lino Canaan on Jan 29, 2012 11:24 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
I think I'm ready to move on.
It doesn’t look like they’ll trade Nash this season, which is fine since they won’t get any real return, but I hope he leaves in free agency.
The window has closed on the opportunity for the Suns to win a championship with Nash as part of the team. This season has been difficult to watch. It’s like a failed, loveless marriage where they’re trying to make it work for the kids, but instead they’re just doing more harm and everyone would be better off with an amicable split.
People say be careful what you wish for with the tanking strategy….
What do the Suns have now?
Their best player turns 38 in a week. Gortat is the only other valuable piece. The rest of the roster has no trade value. ZERO. Regardless of the way the rest of the season goes (even if they miraculously make the playoffs), they will be in the market for at least 3 new starters – 4 if Nash leaves.
They will have $30 million in cap space and I think it provides them the perfect opportunity to start building the next era of Suns basketball. So is it free Nash, or is it free the Suns? Maybe the best thing Nash can do for both parties is leave after the season….
It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.
by Jim Coughenour on Jan 29, 2012 1:12 PM MST up reply actions 2 recs
"is it free Nash, or is it free the Suns?"
thats a great way to put it. we need to start a new era
The Steve Nash Issue
Say we surrender on selling tickets and we try to trade him, but what if HE doesn’t want to ? Is it fair to him? Besides I would only trade Nash for picks and it would have to be a first rounders, or maybe try to get Norris Cole and miami picks for Nash.
roses are red violets are blue, Michael Redd is coming for you!
by Lino Canaan on Jan 29, 2012 11:20 AM MST via mobile reply actions
could be worse
for Steve Nash than going to a better team and play out the last 3 months of this season of a tight schedule that does not allow him to be much at home anyway.. And after the season he can decide where he wants to go or even return.
by TruthTelling on Jan 29, 2012 11:53 AM MST up reply actions
Nice article
the only thing i find concerning is that, if the Suns do trade Nash, what guarantee is there that they won’t go out and sell the draft picks again?
The above is all well and good but if the FO doesn’t decide to do what’s necessary we’ll be in the same situation as we are now…sans Nash
Until the FO can show that they are not going to continue making bad decisions with the picks the Suns get i’m reluctant to support the trading of the current franchise player.
I'm a realist...sad face
Well...
I just don’t see that happening again in the situation we are in right now. When we sold our draft picks a few years back we were trying to save some money and D’Antoni didn’t want to play anyone we drafted. Both scenarios are gone now and we are so far under the cap that it would be INSANE to give away a draft pick. Especially when this team has absolutely no young talent outside of Morris. Gortat is semi-young but I am speaking just entering the league at around 21ish.
"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!
You're right.
It’s pretty simple – the Suns haven’t really bothered with the draft for the most part of a decade, right now it’s haunting them. That’s the situation in a nutshell. Regardless of free agency moves, Nash, etc etc, the Suns need to start drafting and keeping their picks. That needs to be the long term plan.
I also feel the Suns should have been more aggressive in pursuing draft picks in the last 2 or 3 seasons, because we all knew this day would come with Nash. You’d expect a long term plan. Pretty sure Brooks, Telfair etc aren’t the plan at all.
I said this 2 years ago but the Suns should have aggressively pursued the chance to draft Rubio. How possible that could have been I don’t know, but a talent like him behind Nash? The future would not look so glum at all. That’s all it would’ve taken…
Would love to see them be aggressive for some draft picks
We will see what happens. I have no idea what this FO is going to do. The one thing that is nice is they have quite a few options to try and build this team due to the cap flexibility.
"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!
I like the overall tone of the
“construction of good teams” segment.
Is it possible that the Suns currently have the least talent in terms of draft picks or draft day acquisitions of any franchise?
They went from Stat, the Matrix, and LB to Rolo and Keef?
I have a hard time believing that any other franchise can’t do better than Rolo and Keef.
The Suns front office explained to us (good thing to, because they’re so smart and we’re so stupid) that a team can build through the draft, free agency, and trades. Knowing this, since 2004 they’ve basically ignored the draft, made no successful major free agent signings, and conducted a series of trades that in totality could be best described as questionable.
Big surprise that the team has fallen on hard times.
My only solace is in the fact that the current adminstration in charge of re-shaping the direction of the franchise has a proven track record of success and my unwavering endorsement.
It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.
by Jim Coughenour on Jan 29, 2012 12:58 PM MST reply actions
your unwavering endorsement should be enough
for anyone
Crashing the [message] boards from the swamps of Louisiana, and blogging Phoenix Suns!
Perfectly logical, well thought out and absolutely wrong.
Funny, I don’t recall too many Suns fan complaining when we had the best offense on the planet, possibly the best ever, and we were an elite team and people were writing books about our system. Somehow, I don’t think rookie Rajon would have put us there.
Management has made mistakes, costly ones, and we’re not as good as we used to be. I assure you I can tell suck from don’t suck and am as intolerant as anyone of the kind of lack of effort we’ve seen from some of our current roster. But there will be chances to correct the mistakes of the past two years without rolling over.
The problem with the approach you advocate is what it does to the soul of a team. If you take a dive once, it’s easier the next time, and the next.
Losing becomes default mode and in the end you have nothing but a loser team full of losers. You draft college stars who play out their rookie contracts and escape as fast as they can. You can’t sign a top free agent at any price.
All that’s left is the shell of a once proud organization, hyping hell out of their draftee du jour and peddling ticket packages built around other teams’ star players coming to town to visit.
In 44 years of rooting for this team, I’ve seen thrilling victories and heartbreaking losses. But I’ve never seen us surrender, even when things looked a hell of a lot bleaker than they do today.
And the day that surrender happens will be the day we disgrace the legacy of Cotton and Colangelo and MacLeod and Westphal and Adams and Nash and all the others who fought to make the Suns one of the highest quality franchises in the history of professional sports in America.
Next time you go to the arena, take a look up at the Ring of Honor and think about what it really honors.
Hint: It ain’t about shiny hardware.
I'm Michael Beasley's imaginary friend.
by suns68 on Jan 29, 2012 1:07 PM MST via mobile reply actions 3 recs
I don't think we needed the hint,
because we all know that the best effort this proud franchise could put forth never culminated in a championship.
Trading Nash doesn’t matter. That one issue will not be the decisive factor in the rebuilding process. What does it get Phoenix? Garbage now and a handful of ping pong balls this summer? I’ll concede you the debate in the keep Nash discussion, because in the grand scheme of things it’s fairly inconsequential.
The team needs a clean break from Nash this offseason, though. They need to build the team around the best new collection of talent they can get and not worry about whether it will integrate with Steve’s unique style.
I agree that having a goal of 7-59 isn’t the solution. But I think that knowing when to call it quits on one strategy and starting to employ a new one might be.
It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.
by Jim Coughenour on Jan 29, 2012 1:23 PM MST up reply actions
I think this is part of the strategy
Paying Hill $6.5 million wasn’t about anything other than the fact that the Suns knew they had no flexibility.
I personally will be glad if we don’t trade Nash, because I bought league pass and I want to watch a team with a chance to win. They can rebuild next year, when I don’t have to watch.
I suspect they paid Hill that much so he wouldn't leave for two years someplace else.
I think they were pretty clear that they want him in a front office job going forward, very probably at the end of this season, so the best way to keep him was to give him two years salary for one year while they had cap space to do it.
I'm Michael Beasley's imaginary friend.
by suns68 on Jan 29, 2012 6:26 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
You think he plays again next year?
I’m not sure – but we had no cap flexibility either way, not when we still have VC on the books.
Without Hill, we had no cap space – http://hoopshype.com/salaries/phoenix.htm – with him? Same deal.
you like watching this team??
they’re horrible!
get rid of nash now, we are our time, and his.
Rondo
You think Rondo would not have been a capable backup PG behind Steve Nash?
College stars also can’t escape after their rookie contracts. They become restricted free agents and usually have no choice to leave until their 8th season or so and even then they can only leave if they leave a lot of money on the table.
Chris Paul played 6 seasons for the Hornets for instance and to leave he would have had to play 7.
by TruthTelling on Jan 29, 2012 2:00 PM MST up reply actions
"I assure you I can tell suck from don’t suck and am as intolerant as anyone of the kind of lack of effort we’ve seen from some of our current roster"
i don’t think this team is lacking effort, they’re lacking talent. Our roster is horrible, it might be the worst in the league. It’s certainly in the bottom 5 in terms of talent.
and also, can u give me an example of a good franchise suddenly becoming horrible? Has there been a team as successful as the suns that suddenly turns into the Clippers? Everyone has to lose sometime, our time is now. It won’t last forever, only 2-3 more years. Maybe less, it depends on how lucky we are.
agreed completely, 68. Nice post.
by BringBackBarkley17 on Jan 30, 2012 12:57 AM MST up reply actions
Interesting…still don’t buy into the “draft build” but this team has so very few assets that there might not be a choice.
Trading Gortat wasn’t an idea I thought about if you are going to blow it up, only him and Dudley (to a lesser degree) would bring back assets.
Looking through the league, however, I don’t see obvious takers for Gortat. What you are looking for is a team on the rise ready to give up some assets to go to the next level. Minnie certainly fits that bill but they already have Love and Derrick Williams so he’s not a great fit there. A Gortat and Love front line would be very good but still undersized so if I were them I’d be looking for a bigger big that can defend the post. Dudley, however, would be a great fit on the Timberwolves.
Twitter me at: @sethpo
You nailed it with your first sentence.
“This team has so very few assets”. The Suns have boxed themselves in the corner because of the failure to utilize the draft correctly. This will be hard work to get this team back into a position to challenge for the WCF.
Watching Dragic last night have a wonderful game for the Rockets gives me very little hope that Babby and Sarver will make the right moves.
Cap space is an asset
Even WITHOUT signing players, it is an asset. Cap space got OKC 3 first round picks. And it got Detroit mediocrity.
All NBA strategies rely on luck combined with solid execution. San Antonio, for example, used the draft, D League and solid contract handling (like Richard Jefferson) to remain a contender.
The George Hill for Kawhi Leonard trade was a great one at managing money and talent, but where would they be without 2 foreign players taken late who turned out to be stars?
And solid execution
has been lacking in the Suns front office since the Colango’s left. Cap space is great, I agree. It does take a dumb front office to unload two No. first rounders and Kurt Thomas for a bag of balls. The goof up the Colango’s had was signing Brian Grant and then dumping him essentialy for Rondo.
I agree to turn this team around you need a combination of draft, Free agency and managing the cap. I just think the Suns have butchered the draft to know end.
Kurt Thomas
Was traded to the only team who could take him. People forget that.
I just think the Suns have butchered the draft to know end.
Not really – they just haven’t participated. Here’s a question: would you have rather dumped Marion for nothing, and then draft players, or have kept Marion 3-4 years ago?
The Suns have had a budget to live within, which is fair enough, and they made bad choices, but Sarver kept us competitive until last year and this. Would you rather have been a Suns fan for the last 5 years, or Sacramento?
haha yeh
Sarver could’ve dumped Marion or Stoudemire. Instead, he traded KT.
I think Sarver has budget constraints, but the Suns are in Phoenix, been good for 5 years. That’s a win compared to Seatle.
he screwed up having STAT, Nash, Marion, and JJ on the same team
he messed up everything. they were competitive despite him.
The Suns are heading in the direction of Sacramento.
They chose to avoid the draft which is the same of screwing it up. When you fail to realize the importance of the draft you fail at it.
The moves by Sarver since owning this team has lead this team to a spiral. Not only in player movement but the Front office as well.
There is a lot of franchise’s in the NBA that are run poorly. It is a damn shame that this owner is steering this proud franchise in the same direction.
Plan
If you don’t believe in rebuilding through the draft what do you believe in then?
Free Agents? That just does not happen. Players good enough to make a difference rarely are let go by their teams and if they go they look for a great situation to go to and the Suns are not that.
Trades? For trades you need assets and the only way to get good assets is the draft. Handing out free agent deals more often than not turns out to be negative value down the road see Frye, Childress and Warrick.
by TruthTelling on Jan 29, 2012 1:56 PM MST up reply actions
If you believe in building through the draft
To what extent? No trades? No FAs?
It isn’t either or. It can be all of the above. Boston turned scrubs, a pick and $3 million into Garnett, Allen and Rondo (they kinda didn’t draft Rondo, they bought him from us). Celtics went from 2nd last to title in a year.
And Sacramento have been woeful, and they went from bad to bad to bad – never getting lucking and winning any lottery (Tyreke 4, Cousins 5).
And lastly, Memphis. They tanked, and they made it back staring 3 players got in trades (Randolf, Gasol and Tony Allen). Their tank picks – Thabeet, Conley and Mayo – have been disappointments, and if none are top players. Heck, their best draft pick, Rudy Gay, was a trade – Battier for Gay.
To rebuild you need luck, good planning and good execution. Hedo, JChill and Hak are an example of good planning and bad execution, and Gortat is the opposite.
They had Al Jefferson
Who was viewed as a major up and coming prospect at the time. We have nobody like that.
Steve Nash, the league's MVP, is a longhaired Canadian who spoke out against the war in Iraq and reads The Communist Manifesto. Quentin Richardson declared after a game-winning shot that it "was like Hamlet. It was a suspense thriller, and I killed them at the end." Amare Stoudemire, when asked to comment on a 22-point third quarter against the Kings, said, "I've got a tendency to jump over some guys' heads and throw it down."
Boston was luck
and has only happened a few times and even if we do somehow sign a bunch of stars its not guaranteed that we will be good (look at NY) teams becoming good because of the draft is a lot more common. Cleveland with Lebron (dont acknowledge the outcome) Wolves – Love and Rubio OKC Durant and Westbrook. point is there are a lot more teams that have become contenders through the draft rather than through the FA. and every team that did become good from the FA had some sort of young talent already signed from the Draft (Chicago and Clippers)
That's my point
It is ALL luck. Choosing one luck over another is minimizing your luck. Maximise luck.
point is there are a lot more teams that have become contenders through the draft rather than through the FA
And all got lucky – Lebron was a can’t miss star, so as Durant. What about LAC? They got Griffin and Sacramento got Tyreke.
But what about the team that sucked worst when Durant was drafted – Memphis, who got Conley. If Boston had won, they would never have got a title, because I bet they draft Durant instead.
It is all luck – drafting, FAs, cap space, all of it. Why deny that? Why not embrace it and maximise your luck? Keep good players, retain flexibility by NOT signing bad contracts and hope you get lucky. That is how you build in the NBA, and the most important element is luck.
yes i didnt say all teams become contenders
I said a lot more. I agree it is all luck but look at the odds lets say 10% chance in FA market and 25% in the Draft. yes they both suck but you still go with the better odds. the best way to rebuild is get young talent in the draft then build around him in the FA market. with the talent the suns have now no one will want to play in Phoenix. yes Nash is great but who will sign a 5 or even 4 yr contract to play with some one who 1) may not stay in Phoenix and 2) even if he does resign will only have 1-2 years left in the tank. And you had mentioned Memphis and the Kings. they are both in way better positions than the Suns for both the short and long term
I said a lot more.
Indeed, don’t we all :)
And you had mentioned Memphis and the Kings. they are both in way better positions than the Suns for both the short and long term
Memphis is – Sacramento.. ewww. I;d hate to be a Kings fan. thing is, Memphis is not good because of the reasons that support the hypothesis of draft.
the best way to rebuild is get young talent in the draft then build around him in the FA market.
Best is such a definitive statement, and I think it perverts what the discussion. The question is how does a team get from X, wherever X is at that point in time, to a championship?
We both agree a team needs luck. You need lots of luck. And given a specific starting point, what are all the things a team can do? Lets list some:
1) Clear bad contracts –
2) Don’t sign bad contracts – lets call this Ben Gordon’s rule, with an Amar’e subclause.
3) Build cap room and flexibility for the future – we’ll call this Miami’s Rule
4) Build and keep assets other teams covet – we’ll call this Boston’s Rule
5) Keep your best players – we’ll call this Pierce’s rule
6) Maximise the draft position of picks – we’ll call this the Tank rule.
7) Maximise total number of 1st round picks – we’ll call this OKC’s rule
Look, teams get old, their time in the spotlight fades and they are left with poorly put together teams. That is inevitable. The Suns are where they are, and they need to utilize every tool at their disposal. A missed part of all this is that we can potentially use cap space to save other teams, and pick up picks, just like OKC did, and with less salary burden, Sarver might buy 1st rounders instead of selling them.
In any case, the false dichotomy of x vs y is silly – maximise ALL THE THINGS.
the Suns situation is a little different than the teams you listed
2) Don’t sign bad contracts – lets call this Ben Gordon’s rule, with an Amar’e subclause.
please don’t make me list the bad contracts the Suns FO has given out over the past couple years
3) Build cap room and flexibility for the future – we’ll call this Miami’s Rule
Wade on the other hand is arguably more talented. plus a lot younger which makes playing with him more attractive
5) Keep your best players – we’ll call this Pierce’s rule
6) Maximise the draft position of picks – we’ll call this the Tank rule.
Nash is a much better player than Pierce. Nash can make this team win enough games to lose a good draft pick Pierce couldn’t so therefore it did not not hurt to keep him.
OK :)
List the bad contracts, and most aren’t awful.
JChill is bad. Frye a bit over priced. Maybe Hak as well. Marcus Banks was bad also, but we’ll file that under “going for a title”.
We certainly haven’t signed one as bad as Hedo (though we did trade for him), Ben Gordon, Arenas, Rashard Lewis or Elton Brand.
We have signed bad mid-rangish contracts, but nothing on the order of Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon bad.
The sum of our bad contracts as of right now, Hak and JChill, is $10 million – less than Ben Gordon alone ($11,600,000).
And Dudley is a good contract, so is Gortat, Nash and Hill.
But lets redo that because it isn’t clear:
2) Don’t sign long term contracts that are over the MLE unless you get an injury-free star – lets call this Ben Gordon’s rule, with an Amar’e and Elton Brand subclause.
I can agree with that
but Nash (trust me it hurts to say this) needs to get traded in order for us to be a contender again. and if we lose Gortat in the process so be it. although I might actually cry when and if i see a blockbuster trade with Nash’s pic under the headline
by miketheboss on Jan 29, 2012 10:45 PM MST up reply actions
Why?
I think we are better letting him walk. Chances we get anything for Nash of value, without hurting us in some other way, is small.
Letting players walk is always an option, and the “for nothing” assumes something is better than nothing, which isn;t always the case (see Beasley to Minny for nothing).
by MMotherwell on Jan 30, 2012 12:24 AM MST up reply actions
Childress is one of the top 5 worst contracts in the league and Frye is getting up their quickly. His contract is terrible.
by TruthTelling on Jan 30, 2012 12:10 PM MST up reply actions
Neither is top 5
Worst 5 contracts (in order)
1) Arenas ($50 million – Amnestied)
2) Rashard Lewis – $20 million a season, 2 years left.
3) Ben Gordon – $11,600,000, $36 million remaining
4) Charlie Villanueva – $7.5, $24 reamining
5) Elton Brand – $17,059,726, $18 million next year
JChill is bad, but those 5 are woeful – truly woeful. I;d even put Joe Johnson and Amar’e ahead of JChill, because I think by the end of their respective contracts, they’ll be absolute nooses around their respective teams necks.
I have been preaching this argument for a while also.
Unfortuantely we can’t turn back the clock. The horrible decsisions by Sarver to rid themselves of 1st round picks has desimated this team.
They, Front Office, should be working the phones to trade assets to gain 1st round picks. The bandaide approach has not worked. This league is based on stars and our star is a 38 year old point guard. As mentioned 3 potential free agents have already re-signed with there current club. So to think that the Suns will be able to sign a FA star is not realistic.
To me this club has one option to gain a future star and that is with the draft. I would not rule out free agents, just be selective.
I just don’t have the faith in Sarver and Babby to make the commitment to really rebuild this team.
Wow great Article
100% agree with you. Sad thing is no matter how logical and statistically proven an alternative method to rebuilding may be, our F.O. wont go for it. They are stuck in there ways and refuse to admit they are wrong. even though the one thing they did right in the past two years was draft Morris. (Gortat decision gets canceled out by all the other bad trades and contracts) our team is being run by a bunch of stubborn old F**k ups who have no regard for the fan base or the franchise.
This is one of the best fan posts I have ever seen...Highly rec'd.
Well well laid out and lots of insight. I’d like to have some anaylsis, however, of what would be the best prospect for the Suns of next season…Bottom Line: who’d it in best in Phoenix…?
Let's do this...!
Why trade Gortat?
If you look at the list above, Boston were terrible, 2nd worst in the NBA, and they kept Pierce. Everyone cried out to trade him, using Nash like comments of “not fair” and “respect to a long serving player”, but Boston kept him. They won a title because they refused to trade Pierce when they were bad, knowing they would need him when they got good.
I think the goal of rebuilding is to keep your good players, and acquire better players. Miami did that with Wade and Beasley – trading an unproductive tweener and keeping a star – and all the teams that have done well, right back to San Antonio, have kept their better players, even as they retoolled.
If the model that is to be copied is OKC, even they kept Nick Collison, and they also traded for a LOT of 1st rounders, and used as many tricks as they could (Collison’s contract, D League with Latavious Williams, trading cap space for picks).
Copying all of that will be hard, but not copying it is how a team ends up as Sacramento.
Times have changed
that’s back when star players actually hit the FA market and also did not want to team up with other star players in big market teams. You can blame Boston and Miami for that.
Times always change
You can blame Boston and Miami for that.
Lebron got the max money he wanted. So did Wade and Bosh. That they signed together was not a move that cost them money, and if it did, it was pennies on the pound.
FAs sign for the best deal they can get, even Lebron, Wade and Bosh. If you have the most money, you can sign the best players.
105 mil 5 year
That’s not the max Lebron could have gotten nor was it the max offered. He wanted to win. every time he is asked why he went to Miami he responds “to win a championship” and the best way in his eyes to that was to join Wade and Bosh in Miami.
What was the max then? And Who offerred more
105 mil 5 year is the max he could get, give or take a few percentage points. http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5368003 says 6 years 110, and that Bosh and James took "… $15 million less over the life of the contract to sign with Miami, but the deals came with a caveat … an early termination option after the fourth season that would allow LeBron, Bosh and Wade to return to free agency in the summer of 2014. ". In other words, 10%, and the chance to be an UFA in 2014 again.
But I think you misunderstand my point. Lebron made the max, plus or minus. And sure, he wanted to win, but he didn’t sign with the Boston for the vet minimum, or San Antonio for similar. he signed with Miami for close to the max, who had Bopsh, James, Wade, Chalmers and Haslem. They signed Miller on an MLE, and that was only because Toronto and Cleveland did sign and trades.
Lots of teams had way more talent when the three signed, and Wade, Bosh and James didn’t sign with them.
My point is, to be very clear because I agree I mis-represented it, that players will sign with the team that offers them money they want PLUS a chance to win. Not one or either – both. Dreaming of getting a player for less than market value is just that, a dream, and you need to offer very close to the money a player expects to have a chance to use the “winner us” argument.
so Money + chompionship contension = All Star FA signing
I think the Suns are missing an important part of that equation
Indeed
We are a long, long way from being a contender.
Pierce
Man… Pierce was like 10 years younger when Boston was in that situation and the Celtics were bad enough with Pierce to get a top 5 pick.
And you compare keeping Nick Collison to Nash?
Drafting really is not the OKC model. Take your time to read my post. EVERY GOOD TEAM in the league is build up through the use of their draft picks.
Drafting is not a about luck, drafting is about solid scouting and GMs doing their job. Teams that draft well are good, teams that draft bad are bad. That is true in almost all cases except for some teams who stay in mediocrity forever and keep signing free agents to occupy their capspace that do not make a big difference so they never get the chance to draft a franchise player even if they do a good job drafting relative to their draft position.
by TruthTelling on Jan 30, 2012 12:14 PM MST up reply actions
I';m comparing Pierce to Gortat.
But YMMV.
Drafting is not a about luck, drafting is about solid scouting and GMs doing their job
Yeh, because no one ever made a mistake.
This is just a superb article
I really wish Babby or Sarver would read this and change their friggin minds about not trading Nash. People say, or well you won’t get anything good for Nash. Uh wrong, what you get for Nash is an even worse team that has a much better chance of scoring gold in the draft. God I hope Nash gets sick of losing and requests a trade soon.
Let the fools have their tartar sauce!
The important thing to remember is that wether you favor building through the draft or free agency, the suns will have alot more options this off-season than they’ve had in the past. We have alot of money to spend and a potential high lottery pick. No matter how this season turns out, we’re in great position to improve for next year.
I’ve said this before and i’ll say it again, we need to upgrade our backcourt and small forward position. I know we still have nash and he always plays great. Other than nash though, our backcourt gets pretty shaky. Price is a very athletic and energetic defender but he simply isn’t the playmaker or scorer nash is. He’s worth keeping as a backup. i don’t feel the same way about telfair however.
He’s way to inconsistent and looks for his shot to much. Kendall Marshall would be a great pickup for the suns (aquired in a draft day trade) and would fit in very well in our offense. His incredible passing ability especially in transition would remind some fans of the old ssol era. He would be the closest thing to rubio we could find in this draft.
I think either of the jone’s perry or terrence would excell in our offense. I also like sullinger as a potential suns pick. Despite most people’s protests i see him as a more athletic elton brand or maybe even a karl malone(with the right strength and conditioning program) i wouldn’t compare him to markieff because morris is more lean and more of a face the basket four man right now.
I love both sullinger and marshall’s old-school games. We will probably go with perry jones or brad beal. I actually feel perry jones could play small forward in the nba,despite his size, he’s probably the fastest bigman end to end in college basketball.
He also is athletic and long enough to defend the three. At worst, he could be a mis-match nightmare at the wing position.
This post is so good, it brings tears to my eyes
and for so many reasons.
First off- while you say a lot of great things that I do agree with- it has to be said, the best thing a team can do to be succesful is through drafts AND trades. Many of the teams you mention do that.
Also, while we don’t have a lot of good young talent here, we can put that into the hands of Mike D. We had a great team for a while, and it hurt us in the long run, but I think we are all happy it happened that way. I mean- I wouldn’t have traded all these Nash years for anything.
Having said that, I’ve lost my sentimentality for keeping Nash. I think its time he was traded, whether he wants it or not- because it is really the best thing for the team, but also probably for him to a certain extent. And, I say that thinking of the trades to either Indy or Utah. Either of those teams would be great for Nash to play with, and I’d be happy for him. Yes, he’d be away from his kids, unless they moved too, which is unlikely. But, to see him playing with talent and having fun again would make us all happy, including Nash. I want that.
And I want the good trade to bring in more picks here, as well as a Devin Harris or Collison. It’s a start.
But, here’s more food for thought on the whole draft issue: We picked Goran and Earl Clark recently (I’ll get to Lopez in a second), and we kept those picks. Goran was pretty good, and we traded him, and he’s playing better with another team. Same with Clark. Earl has found some serious game playing with Orlando. They play him a lot. he’s not fantastic, but way better than he was here – playing with pride and energy and determination. Same with Goran. And I have a sneaking suspicion that it’ll be the same with Robin. Lopez and Dragic played better when we were a better team- so maybe that is a big part of it. Or maybe it’s coaching? Not sure- but in any case, just because we have the young assets, it doesn’t mean we will necessarily develop the talent correctly, which is scary.
Look at Norris Cole, too. Playing great, right? But put him on our team. I guarantee you we won’t see the same player. He looks great playing next to 3 of the best players in the league, and with so much confidence and poise. Anyway- makes me wonder what this team does to players.
Used to be that we made average players great, like Quinten and Tim Thomas. Now we make average players worse like Frye and Brown.
But I digress.
We should trade Nash if we get picks and talent for him, and if the talent doesn’t tie us down too much for the future, unless they fit in well with our plans. We should trade Gortat only if it really nets us something fantastic- but if it does, I’m good with it. I think we have to blow up the team and get rid of the Nash-centric make-up of the team to move on and develop players for the long-term.
The only way we should not move away from all this, is if we pull off some block-buster trade for a stupendous 2,3, and 4, keep Nash and Gortat and make one more run with Nash here. But somehow, I just don’t see that happening.
And, so, I say, trade what ever is necessary to get a new start, get high picks, make good trades where possible. I have optimism in our FO after keeping the flexibility open and drafting Morris. I hope they make all the right moves. Go Suns!
Grant Hill for prez.
by sun-arc on Jan 29, 2012 8:19 PM MST via mobile reply actions
"just because we have the young assets, it doesn’t mean we will necessarily develop the talent correctly, which is scary"
This is very scary indeed, and with the way Dragic and Clark have been performing for another team, I’m afraid this is exactly the path we are heading down.
I can't find anything wrong with the logic in this article
even though I really want to.
The truth always rings true, even when you don’t want to hear it.
Voted most likely to say "I told you so"
by jc79 on Jan 29, 2012 8:42 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
What if we used cap space to take on bad contracts
and in exchange those teams gave us their draft picks?
This plan would ensure 3-4 years of sucking, but would also mean we would get a bunch of extra picks to build a core through the draft.
Voted most likely to say "I told you so"
OKC's plan
And that is what people miss in having capspace. It isn’t about FAs only, but about being able to get extra assets through trades. EVERYONE wants to dump salary – even with an amnesty clause, teams have to pay the player.
Orlando, for example, is going to pay Arenas close to $50 million (I am pretty sure the last year is not fully covered) over this and the next two seasons NOT to play.
As an example, Dallas would rather not pay Odom $8 million to not play, and maybe they chuck a first rounder for taking Odom off their hands.
Options – that is what capspace offers – even when you tank.
OKC
OKC only got that kind of value for their capspace because Robert Sarver enforced one of the worst trades in the history of the NBA by trading 2 firsts with Kurt Thomas who had just a year left or so on his deal.
OKC had leverage because they were the only team with capspace. This is totally different now, we have a different CBA, much less tax payers that need to get rid off players. Teams still have amnesty rules to drop salary and there are many more teams that will have capspace next year.
by TruthTelling on Jan 30, 2012 12:16 PM MST up reply actions
Not true
Teams will always look to trade away bad players.
I’m not sure you understand how the amnesty rule works, but even if you do, lets be clear here: teams still have to PAY players, they just don’t count that money for tax and salary cap purposes. No team can afford to amnesty a player and still keep paying megabucks, and certain;y NOT teams like Atlanta who are on a disaster course of growing salaries and little chance of a title.
Even a team like Dallas might give up Odom and a first (which will be what, like 22) for cap space. If i were the suns, that;s a trade I’d make in a heartbeat… next summer.
good article
the only thing is, i don’t believe we can get anything of value for steve nash. we just need to give him away to anyone who will take him.
this is ok, the compensation for nash will come in the form of a higher draft pick this season.
heres a question for the people in favor of keeping nash for the season:
What good will it do? Nash will get us the 9th or 10th pick in the draft, then leave us for a contender next season. why not get rid of him now, and get a top 3 or 4 pick? is it really that entertaining to watch him at this point?
Why give him away?
Why not just let him walk? Why do we have to get something for him?
Nash will get us the 9th or 10th pick in the draft, then leave us for a contender next season. why not get rid of him now, and get a top 3 or 4 pick?
The Lottery works like this – the NBA has picks 1, 2 and 3 lotteried off. The WORST team in the NBA, Washington, gets 250 out of 1000 balls in the lottery, and each other team has fewer and fewer balls.
Here is where it gets tricky: The 6th worst team has a 6.3% chance of picking first. and a 78% chance of picking 6th or late. Think about that – being 6th worst means most years you will pick 6th or later. Heck, even the 2nd worst team, with the second most pin pong balls, has a 42% chance of missing the top 3.
So lets project where we can finish. Lets say we are really bad, and we end up 4th worst, we’ll have 50% chance of picking 4,5 or 6, and 50% chance of picking top 3. If we finish better than expected, say 6th worst, we have a 78% chance of picking between 5 and 8.
Tanking is really risky, and a few wins win could move a team from 4th to 6th worst, and damn the team to a big chance of picking mid lottery.
That is why I am voting to stay the course. That, and i bought League Pass, and don’t want it wasted on dreams of a draft pick.
by MMotherwell on Jan 30, 2012 12:43 AM MST up reply actions
I'm aware of how it works lol
But here are our options: let Steve play the rest of the season and get the 9th or 10th pick, or get rid of Steve and get a higher pick. We lose Nash either way, but the second option gets us a higher draft pick. Lol I don’t get the point of keeping Nash AT ALL.
by forget on Jan 30, 2012 9:19 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
why would he stay here to lose?
why??? unless we ridiculously over pay him, he’s leaving. If we overpay to keep him….then we know where this franchise is going, right down the toilet.
Why would he stay here?
Just an educated guess..
http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2012/1/26/2736203/phoenix-suns-news-trade-the-front-office-and-ownership-not-steve-nash#90051309
BAMF goes HAM.
we will see what happens.
if we ridiculously overpay him, like that other article seems to think we will, then he very well might stay. but if we offer him anywhere near what other teams will want to pay him, he’s leaving.
Very specific..
if we ridiculously overpay him, like that other article seems to think we will
In the meantime, you might as well just keep posting how there is no chance he’s returning to the Suns.
BAMF goes HAM.
Really?
Because I wasn’t aware of how harsh the drop off was. Seriously, it changes everything,. A team MUST BE one of th 3 worst to make it worthwhile. MUST BE.
In the last ten years
Sorry, 15 years
Getting old – I thought 1995 was 10 years ago :|
Being a nice guy, I put 3rd vs 9th in a spreadsheet for you and i score it to…..
1) 7-6 to 9th in head to head by year
2) 2-4 in Busts to the third pick
3) Overall – 9th because of the number of repeat all-stars and hall of famers.
I’d obviously rather have 3 than 9 (because you hope you do better than getting Adam Morrison) but this year, it seems to me, it is such a variable draft.
As an example, Jeremy Lamb is 3rd at NBAdraft.net and “11th at draftexpress”http://www.draftexpress.com/ and 9th on ESPN and that is just one player. Some others:
Perry Jones is 11, 7, 5
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 7, 3, 6
While there is a clear top 2 (Drummond and Davis), even they have question marks (Drummond isn’t a big study guy, Davis is skinny with no offensive game), and there are no sure things. This isn’t Glenn Robinson, Kidd and Grant Hill. This is one big question mark of a draft.
The good thing is it is a very deep, with the top 15 solid players with question marks. so picking late lotto should be about as unrisky as picking 3rd or fourth, with the upside that you are probably getting about the same level of talent.
So buck up – this could be the one draft it is good to pick 15th in!
"I’d obviously rather have 3 than 9 (because you hope you do better than getting Adam Morrison) but this year, it seems to me, it is such a variable draft."
the question remains: would you rather have your pick of all of those players you mentioned? or would you rather be a little more limited in who you can pick at #9?
Bringing up these old drafts doesn’t matter. Think about it this way. If a team messes up on a top 3 pick, what makes you think they can make a great pick at #9? what changes? It comes down to the suns’ scouting, if they are good, we’ll be fine. If they suck, then it doesn’t matter where we pick, right? I don’t think the suns suck at drafting (although i guess we don’t have much to go on with this regime). I think they’d be able to make a good pick in the top 3.
Think about it this way
Do you like watching the games? If yes, given the future is unknown, why do you want to lose games?
I think they’d be able to make a good pick in the top 3.
I’m not sure anyone will this year. Seriously, this draft is scary random.
whether we lose 38 games or 48 games makes ZERO difference to me.
suckage is suckage, no matter what. I don’t worry about varying degrees of suckage. I like watching basketball, so i’ll watch them regardless.
however, i do get frustrated when my team is lacking direction, which is where we’re at now with the suns. i just want this team to move on, its time for nash to go.
2012 draft
seems to be one with little risk. Maybe there is not much high level talent at the top although I think Anthony Davis is right up there with any #1 pick not named Lebron recently.
but one thing this draft offers for sure is a considerable amount of safe draft picks that worst case will likely be still good players. I am talking about kids like Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist for example absolutely worse case for them is probably Joakim Noah and Gerald Wallace.
by TruthTelling on Feb 1, 2012 12:46 AM MST up reply actions
I disagree.
You mentioned the safe players (although even Davis isn’t safe due to his rail-thin frame).
How about Perry Jones, who is one giant question mark? Harrison Barnes, who everyone loves but I don’t see being a star? Or Jared Sullinger who might not be able to translate to the NBA effectively? Or Terrence Jones who has motivation issues? Or Drummond who is talented but hasn’t put it together yet? Or Rivers who has been incredibly inconsistent and isn’t ready for pro ball yet? Or Robinson, who you had questions about (I really like him though)?
There are a few guys that look pretty safe, but there are a lot more risky players. And the draft is ALWAYS a risk, no matter how safe a player seems.
Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!
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how is..
Harrison Barnes not a safe pick? I don’t like him but he has a very high floor. Worst case he is going to be an above average starter at SF.
Austin Rivers worst case will be a 6th man like Jamal Crawford.
lottery
Yes it is a game of percentages but in the end having more odds to win one of the top 3 picks is always better. If u have the worst record in the NBA.
What you do not seem to get is that if we finish with the 10th worst record we are still out of the playoffs by a long shot and have only a miniscule chance to get a top 3 pick while the 4th worst record gives us a 40% chance to draft in the top 3 compared to 4% if we are 10th place.
by TruthTelling on Jan 30, 2012 12:19 PM MST up reply actions
but in the end having more odds to win one of the top 3 picks is always better. I
Derrr. That;s the hardly the point.
Picking 7th is a waste, and check out wikipedia, it is frightening how teams can be 2nd worst and end up picking5th (like boston in the Durant draft – when 5th == Jeff green).
What you do not seem to get
Oh I get it, but the risk of tanking is we win a few extra games, when we hit an exhausted team, and end up 5th worst and pick 7th. I’d rather win more game sand pick 10th and enjoy the roller coaster. I’m not going to watch a team that is 5th worst, and I, unlike many others it seems, actually ENJOY watching Suns basketball.
Ultimately, I have league pass and maybe others don’t, so my expectation is to watch 60+ games of reasonably competitive Suns BBall. if your expectation is 10 games max, then I guess what does it really matter if the team wins few if you aren’t going to watch anyway?
Rebuilding strategies aside
Shut up about your league pass already. It’s so selfish and asinine to say your hopes for how this team is run are based on the fact that you bought a TV subscription. Every Suns fan knew this was going to be a difficult year to say the least.
Personally, the fact that you decided to buy League Pass this year is a testament to your decision making skills, or lack thereof, so why would anyone care what you think about how to run a team. I think most people here want to do what’s best for this team going forward and are stating their opinions on how to best do that. You, on the other hand, just want to cover a poorly thought out TV purchase. You can keep that to yourself.
I think most people that are fans are going to watch this team regardless of how much star power it does or does not have or based on how much it changed their cable bill. So just shut up about the league pass you purchased. It has no place in this conversation at all. You just come off as immature and whiny.
by NSU Stud on Jan 31, 2012 6:44 PM MST up reply actions 3 recs
Sorry of that comes off as a personal attack
but it got real annoying reading through all these comments and seeing “but I bought league pass” over and over.
Haha I'm not taking it personally but...
I want to watch my team WIN games. I want my team, the one that started the year with Nash, to end the year with Nash so I can enjoy watching Nash play, and my team at least try to compete. I know this is going to sound insane, but I enjoy watching the Suns play, even in a season like this, and if I was in for a year of watchign Shannon Brown jack up 22 footers witha hand in his face, I would’ve planned to watch far fewer games.
Maybe you don’t want the team to win, but do you REALLY think that I do is selfish? Seriously?
I think most people that are fans are going to watch this team regardless
That’s just not true, and everything points to the fact that winning teams have more fans and viewers. How much you put off to watch a Suns games (family, friends, work, a life) is dictated to by the team’s ability to compete. Heck, even game threads show that fact.
But really, what sort of fan wants his team to:
1) trade their BEST (some might say ONLY) player
2) lose every game?
If that’s a fan, this is the only sport in the WORLD where a fan is defined that way (and it is possible that it is true).
I know the NBA is a star’s league, but this obsession with tanking is taking a known (with Nash I enjoy watching the Suns play ans they are reasonably competitive) and replacing it with a dream (we’ll draft a great player who will lead us to the promisedland).
And I think that is the difference between the tankers and non-tanker camps: one group enjoys watching the Sun’s play, and the other wants to win a title no matter the cost in years (including this one) of boredom. Which side you see as “fair weather” and which you see as boring will dictate what you think we should do.
But really, either everyone is selfish, or no one is.
by MMotherwell on Jan 31, 2012 7:47 PM MST up reply actions 2 recs
For the record
I didn’t take sides. Just don’t want to hear about league pass being a factor.
I think paying makes a difference to what you want - but YMMV.
I’d be more pissed if I bought a ticket to a game and the day before the team traded Nash and Hill. But you know, maybe some people enjoy watching their team lose every game. To each his own.
It's a factor to a fan in the same way buying season tickets is, only on a smaller scale
Fans who’ve invested their hard-earned money in a team are different from fans who haven’t, IMO. Both sets of fans should want what’s best for their teams in the long-run as well as the short-term but I’m sure it is different for fans who have invested something versus those who haven’t. There’s a different level of commitment.
For the fan who hasn’t paid anything, meh, if the team isn’t good they won’t watch. Whatever. But it’s a real kick in the crotch to have paid for season tickets or League Pass only to have a season in which the team isn’t even attempting to win games.
Blogging Suns basketball for Bright Side of the Sun from California wine country.
Twitter: @EastBayRaymundo
no really..
lets say I have season tickets, I would rather watch a young developing team that wins 15 games rather than seeing an old declining team that is fighting to win 30 games.
not even a hard decision, right now the Suns are totally irrelevant and it is not just because of their record.
I agree but that wasn't the point
Sure it matters more if you spend your money on it. But at the same time you lose your right to complain as soon as you decide to actually spend that money. By then it’s gone and you have to live with your choice. My point being that we all knew this would be a tough year for the Suns and when your team is in rebuild mode it’s probably not the best time to start investing your hard earned money.
That’s not to say you don’t support them, I’m just saying your investing to see the TEAM, and the team(players) may or may not change during the course of the season.
All I’m saying is spend your money on what you want, but keep it to yourself. If you really think “Don’t trade Steve Nash because I bought League Pass!” is a legitimate contribution, then I simply cannot comprehend your level of thinking.
MM, I totally agree with you. I bought league pass this year too. Was the first year I could afford it. I do hope they play better, but I ’ll always be a fan regardless.
by BringBackBarkley17 on Feb 1, 2012 11:16 AM MST up reply actions
not just about a title
the Suns have been a dull boring mediocre team this year for the third time in four years. It is not just about getting a title.
The non-tanker faction seems to be quite content with being a perennial .500 team or slightly worse and seem to think that getting back to winning 55 games a season will just happen suddenly and is not that far away.
The Memphis game was awesome
Very exciting – it came right down to the last second. I’d love to watch 20 more games like that this year personally. So was the NYK game, and the Boston game.
The Dallas games are what I find boring – a blowout over in 2 and a half quarters, without a single player on my team I really want to watch. Ditto Portland.
Funny, we’ve lost most games this year badly – been well behind early, but we’ve had some close wins.
getting back to winning 55 games a season will just happen suddenly and is not that far away.
And what, we get Anthony Davis and we win 55? Last time we sucked we turned it around in a year – crazier things have happened.
All you get when you tank is a guarantee that, as of the moment of tanking, your team will suck BADLY. Nothing else is known. If 42 games this season like the Dallas game appeals to people, and they want to watch that, we’ll have to agree to disagree.
..
see my post below
Tanking gives you by far the best chance of all options to rebuild your team quickly. It is not even close.
And the argument towards tanking is really one-sided since we are discussing tanking for a top 5 pick opposed to sucking and getting a #12 pick. It is not like we are advocating tanking when this team has a chance to make the playoffs because this season is lost anyway.
Winning meaningless games to get to 30 wins instead of 20, what positive does this bring to this team? Nothing. They would be best served using the remaining season to set up the development of players that have a long term future with this team by giving them playing time.
The Clippers would like to have a word with you.
by BringBackBarkley17 on Feb 1, 2012 11:17 AM MST up reply actions
...
Anthony Davis would be the central piece to get back ton 50+ wins, yes.
You seem to ignore any argument backed up by empirical evidence and statistics just because there it is never a 100% chance.
The good news(draft wise) is this team is currently bad enough to be awarded a top five pick and they don’t even have to attempt tanking.
Agree with truth telling on this one though, looking at the way free agency is ending up, we’d be smart to turn our focus to aquiring a few college stars with the talent to develop into all-stars down the road.
That’s how we’ll start our trek back to the playoffs and then we can realistically try and sign a big name free agent or two then try and make a real championship run.
It starts by following a successful draft plan and going step by step from there until we are where we expect this team to be.
Tyler zeller is starting to intrigue me more and more. He had eighteen points and eighteen rebounds(nine offensive) in north carolina’s win last night over wake forest. He’s starting to look like the anti-lopez.
I wouldn’t mind to much if the suns managed to aquire him in a draft day trade. Doing everything he does from the center poistion with excellent fundamentals he could really come in off the bench and take some pressure off gortat and the other bigs(especially scoring and rebounding).
I’d also be happy if the suns found a way to add kendall marshall, seeing how pure-passing pointguards like nash and rubio are gaining popularity right now in the nba.
Zeller
too low ceiling..
Reaching for centers in the draft is not the best idea when you have nothing in place for the future imo.
You can do that when you have other great talents already and just need a center. Nobody will show up to watch someone like Tyler Zeller. The least sexy draft pick possible in the lottery.
Also I think Cody Zeller is more talented than Tyler. Leonard Meyers probably too. Still would leave them to other teams and acquire the more talented other players that slip due to other teams reaching for centers.
About Marshall, other than passing he really cant do anything. I like Kabongo better as a prospect personally. Still wouldn’t mind Marshall late in the first round.
by TruthTelling on Feb 1, 2012 12:25 PM MST up reply actions
We could also look at guys that will be late first round to second round steals we could aquire for cheap.
Guys like patrick young,kris joseph,robert sacre,jeffrey taylor,damian lillard,john jenkins,william buford,kevin jones,orlando johnson,jarrod jones,festus ezeli and maalik wayaans.
All these guys are very talented and could be solid upgrades to our bench going forward. Anybody else have a list of potential sleeprs and steals for the suns going into this draft?
Tony Wroten
is a sleeper , though he probably will move up a lot before the draft
Truthtelling, you misunderstood me about getting tyler zeller. What i was trying to say is that if we could pick him up in a draft day trade(after we took for our future star with our lottery pick) he could be lopez’s replacement after he’s traded for another pick. Basically lopez goes out,tyler fills his spot off the bench.
We still have gortat as the starting center to do the bulk of the dirty work, but when he goes out zeller gives us what lopez can’t without the emotional problems. A backup center that can run the floor and finish but most importantly rebound consistently and score in the low post. Zeller wouldn’t have to be a sexy pick or even a star, we’d get that with our lottery selection.
He’d be an upgrade to our backup center position with lopez being traded. I also like kabongo’s potential, but in the games i’ve seen him play he looks like he could use another year in college to get stronger and improve his jumpshot.
The reason i feel marshall would be a great pick for the suns is because his game is tailor-made for our offense and with the guys we currently have on this team, his passing skills will make the team better on offense.
Having said that, i’d like to see marshall work on improving his strength,conditioning, defense and maybe even try to add a mid-range jumper. If a guard like mark jackson who he’s compared to can win the rookie of the year as the eighteenth pick and then become an all-star, it’s only fair to think that marshall should be able to do the same.
We may not have a chance to draft a super-athletic guard prospect similiar to a westbrook,wall or rose, but we could do worse than adding marshall to our squad via trade.
What can i say, i’m a fan of skill guys(marshall,zeller,sullinger) just as much as great athletes. I agree with you on wroten, in the suns offense, assuming we draft or trade for him, he could be a rookie of the year candidate and a twenty point scorer.
Want to draft a tremendously athletic talent in the lottery, then would be really happy making one or two additional draft day trades to get a kendall marshall or tyler zeller.
Haven’t really seen cody zeller play, but if he’s truly more talented than tyler he’d be able to contribute right away.
Damian lillard might be this year’s norris cole, he’s been steadily making his way up the draft board as the nation’s leading scorer. He’s regarded as a strong,very athletic scoring pointguard. Someone we might be able to get pretty easily if some other gm’s overlook him due to his playing for weber state.
Jordan taylor of wisconsin is an underrated pointguard prospect( derek fisher type). He’s a very strong pointguard who can shoot from deep and hardly ever turns the ball over.
He’s not that explosive but uses his strength and smarts to get the job done.
Playing in bo ryan’s system will also teach him to be a very smart defensive player(wisconsin and florida state are the two best defensive programs in college basketball.) something this team could really use.
Trade nash, hill, and gortat
To miami for bosh, miller/or haslem and chalmers/or cole. Miami gets their ring along w grant and steve…they come off the books for miami allowing them to sign howard. We re-up with bosh, sign eric gordan, and re-add aaron brooks. Starting lineup for us is brooks, gordon, dudz, bosh, and morris. Not a terrible place to start from. I hate miami and bosh as much as anyone, but wouldnt mind a scenario like this one bit.
"He's very cerebral when he plays out there"--Hubie
by Snowbird on Feb 2, 2012 1:14 AM MST via iPhone app reply actions
BEST ARTICLE IVE SEEN WRITTEN ON THIS SUBJECT...i hope bobby buffoon and babby the helium voiced con artist READ it
by good like a-1 beer on Feb 2, 2012 8:03 PM MST reply actions
Lol at the helium part
Women were the reason I became a monk - and, ah, the reason I switched back... -Morte, Planescape Torment
Keeping Steve Nash around much longer in this situation in my opinion will overall turn off the fanbase even more. Imagine we keep Steve Nash here in Phoenix for 2 more years in which we have no chance to make the playoffs but also no chance to draft in the top 10 and the front office only then when Nash retires decides to rebuild. Clearly that is the worst thing that could happen to the Suns fanbase.
This is the part I’m afraid of.
Women were the reason I became a monk - and, ah, the reason I switched back... -Morte, Planescape Torment
We are not going to get anything of value for Nash.
Trading Nash, we missed the boat it’s too late now. If Nash is the best PG avalible next season and wants to re-sign with PHX do we say “Thanks but no thanks, we are going in a different direction”. Is that direction Brooks, Price or Telfair?
Tanking would be fine if our FO had Jerry West or Pat Riley calling the shots but it doesn’t. It wouldn’t matter how many picks or where we have them in the draft because i don’t have any confidence in the Suns brains trust to get ot right.
Having a solid FO would help us more than tanking for picks and getting into some bad basketball habits like the Wizards, Clippers and Wolves. The last two that were mentioned are on the up but it has taken a very long time just for them to be .500 or there about.
This seems to be the critical bit everyone's ignoring
Tank, don’t tank…trades, picks, FA signings…fine…all these strategies rely on a competent FO. this mean scouts who have an eye for young talent, a savvy, well connected GM who can get deals , and an owner with not only a bankroll, but the brains to use it wisely. Without these things, it doesn’t matter what the best moves are, because it just ain’t happening.
So my question is: do any of you think we have these things?
The really sad part is i truly believe the majority of suns fans here have more passion and enthusiasm for the state of this franchise than the front office does.
Listening to most of their interviews over the years(including some of sarver’s) it reminds me of the “time to make the donuts” guy from the old dunkin donuts commercial.
Answers are very robotic and even somewhat lethargic, no excitement or passion. It’s just work for them, not something they enjoy. Bright side of the sun is alive however, and filled with heated debates on everything suns.
We try to keep eachother in the loop while the front office remains silent and secretive. We cheer for our suns win they win and show frustration when they lose. As a fan, i wouldn’t mind seeing some more passion,enthusiasm and energy from babby,blanks and sarver.
It would show that they actually care about how this team’s doing and will take the necessary steps to make this team relevant again and a dangerous threat in the west.
This is a proud franchise with a winning tradition and we have to find a way wether it’s through trades or the draft to get back to that at any cost.
eh i don't think that is the case.
they wouldn’t be in this business if they weren’t passionate about it.
All franchises go through tough transitional phases. We just have to wait this one out. I’m sure the FO will figure this out sooner rather than later. I know its tough, but we just have to be patient.
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