Some Historical Draft Analysis
by TruthTelling on Jan 31, 2012 4:22 PM MST
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I did some work here based on the top 100 players voting done on the realgm player comparison board.
You can find the list here http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1123731 as I don't know how to embed my excel sheet here.
Avg Draft Position Top 100 9,4 ( excluding players that were not drafted )
Avg Draft Position Top 10 3,22 excludes Wilt Chamberlain
Avg Draft Position #10-20 7 excludes Moses Malone
Avg Draft Position #20-30 4,9
Avg Draft Position #30-40 21,6 -> Gilmore #117, Gervin #40, Stockton #16 and Drexler #14
Avg Draft Position #40-50 4,1
Avg Draft Position #50-60 12,3 excludes Paul Arizin
Avg Draft Position #60-70 12,3
Avg Draft Position #70-80 7,9
Avg Draft Position #80-90 9,57 excludes Connie Hawkins,Ben Wallace and Bill Sharman
Avg Draft Position #90-100 21,44 excludes Dave DeBusschere
The extremes are results of players like Gilmore at 117, Gervin at 40, Ginobili at 57, Laimbeer 65, Dandridge 45 these players stand out in terms of their draft position compared to the rest.
avg position drafts in
00s 2,86
90s 7,84 excludes Ben Wallace undrafted
80s 9,3
70s 16,27 excludes Moses Malone
Eliminating extremes here
avg position drafts in
90s minus Wallace and Ginobili 4,6
70s minus Gilmore and Gervin 10,05
Undrafted Players : 8 Ben Wallace, Moses Malone, Connie Hawkins, DeBusschere, Jerry Lucas, Chamberlain, Sharman, Arizin most of them territorial picks
So 49 out of the 92 drafted top 100 players were top 3 picks. 75 of the 92 drafted top 100 players were top 9 picks.
Drafting higher is always better everyone should have known that before. With the restriction of highschool players not being able to enter the league anymore and foreign players being scouted much more extensively since Dirk Nowitzki there are even less surprises in the draft as evidenced by the average draft position of the great players in the last 10 years.
And that trend will not change with Kevin Durant #2, Blake Griffin #1, Derek Rose #1, Russell Westbrook #4, Kevin Love #5, John Wall #1, Kyrie Irving #1, Ricky Rubio #5 and other possible candidates eventually getting in that list.
When you look back at the last 25 years and the franchise players that have been in the league the only franchise players not drafted in the top 5 were Steve Nash #15, Kobe Bryant #13, Tracy McGrady #9, Dirk Nowitzki #9 and Brandon Roy #6.
I do not consider Manu Ginobili or Ben Wallace franchise players.
Brandon Roy misses the cut by 1 spot, McGrady and Kobe were highschoolers before the hype and teams were wary plus Kobe refused to work out for almost anyone and Dirk Nowitzki was a foreign prospect at a time where oversea scouting wasn't where it is now. Dirk Nowitzki was a pioneer pick in that regard pretty much.
You have to go all the way back to 1985 Karl Malone at #13 and John Stockton in 1984 at 16 to find franchise players that were drafted outside the top 10.
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2012 Draft
TruthTelling.. who outside of Anthony Davis in this years draft gives us the best chance to rebuild and be a franchise player?
i dont think you can judge off the first year or two in the NBA anyway.
Rookies have to prove themselves, and find their game. if you dont already have a star to rebuild around, then you start stockpiling young talent, and hope one of those players becomes a top 5-10 talent.
this is why rebuilding takes so long. gotta pray the draft goes well, see how those players turn out, or obtain a top talent via trade or free agency.
Anthony Davis
is clearly the big prize . I had Andre Drummond ahead of him for most of the time due to Drummonds unlimited upside but Davis is freaking amazing. The length that he has at the PF position is insane, that guy is a mix of Marcus Camby and Shawn Marion on steroids and actually has some offensive arsenal too.
Outside of Anthony Davis I personally like
Andre Drummond – combination of size and athleticism is jaw dropping
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist – worst case will be Gerald Wallace I believe and a team leader
Brad Beal – Think he can be better than Eric Gordon
Perry Jones III – Has a chance to be a unique player in the NBA, Kevin Garnett offensively
Austin Rivers – If he can measure in at 6’4 or even 6’5 as rumored he will shoot up the draft boards. He can be a rich mans Kevin Martin or quicker Brandon Roy
Quincy Miller – could be a poor mans Kevin Durant
Jeremy Lamb – more athletic Rip Hamilton
I also like Kabongo, Tony Wroten, Patric Young, Kendall Marshall outside of the lottery.
by TruthTelling on Feb 1, 2012 12:40 AM MST up reply actions
Draft post coming...
And I’ll definitely address at least a few of these guys.
Also, I really like Thomas Robinson.
Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!
Read my thoughts on Creighton University athletics at Creightonian.com
I also edit things at Ridiculous Upside. Check it out.
Evryone is a question mark
Even Davis. If he never develops a offensive game, he’ll be like a taller Marion.
I think this is a draft where NOT getting the guy you want might turn out really well. I can see a guy like Henson being a better NBA player (he’s projected to ten plus) and a guy like Drummond has bust written all over him, and even then you HAVE TO take him if you pick outside the top 3, because like DeMarcus Cousins, he has oodles of potential you can’t pass on.
This is a scary draft, and it will ruin a few GM careers when the dust settles.
Toss Henson into the question mark category.
The dude is a 200 lb PF. I like him a lot, but he barely weighs more than me.
I agree though. This draft is really deep with possible good players, but every one of them has questions about transitioning to the NBA.
Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!
Read my thoughts on Creighton University athletics at Creightonian.com
I also edit things at Ridiculous Upside. Check it out.
So what does this mean?
Suns should trade Nash for a top 5 pick? Not going to happen. Trade Nash, hope we suck bad enough to get a top 5
pick? OK great now we have maybe 1 franchise player. Then what? Suck some more and hope for another top 5 pick?
Why don’t you ask the Bucks, and Minnesota, and the Clipper’s, and Houston, and the Pacers fans how that’s worked out.
Granted Clips and Minnie have decent teams now, but they sucked hard for over a decade. I don’t wanna ride that train.
Handy men Earl. We are Handy, Men.----- Valentine McKee
Ok let's just look at those teams you mentioned.
Bucks: ok they’ve been pretty bad. But they’ve had some bad luck with Boguts injuries.
Minnesota: one of the worst franchises in sports. There’s only one franchise in the NBA that can compare…
Clippers: Minnesota and LAC stand alone as the two worst franchises in the NBA
Houston: really? They’re in the playoffs almost every season lol.
Pacers: Again, really? This team missed the playoffs once from 1990-2006, and if it weren’t for the infamous ‘malice in the palace’, they might’ve won championship in 2005-2006. That fight is what caused them to miss the playoffs in recent years.
We aren’t the Clippers or Wolves. We are a good franchise.
And you guys don’t seem to wanna face te fact that Steve is leaving in the offseason. Why not start fresh next season with a top 3 pick instead of a top 10 pick? We’re probably losing Steve no matter what!
by forget on Jan 31, 2012 8:57 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
I think you need to look up the difference between opinion and fact
And you guys don’t seem to wanna face te fact that Steve is leaving in the offseason.
Does this help any?..
http://www.reallygoodstuff.com/images/set_a/en_us/local/products/altview_large/154907.jpg
BAMF goes HAM.
by brian13 on Jan 31, 2012 10:46 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
It appears some people like forget and TruthTelling are beyond opinion and fact.
They’ve found a middle ground called “factinion”. This is where their opinions have become fact. It’s perfect, isn’t it?
Just because Steve Nash has that "dirty hipster" look doesn't mean he's in need of a shower. Steve Nash bathes in the tears of his victims on a nightly basis.
Mark of a Beast, baby. Mark of a Beast.
Find one expert that believes Steve will be a sun next season
Please, I really want to know.
Take off your ‘homer-vision’ goggles for a bit and face the reality of this situation. The reality is that there’s probably less than a 5% chance that Steve is here next season. Why would he want to stay here? Do you think he likes to lose? The only way he would stay here is if we offered him crazy money to stay here. Would we do that ? Are the people in the FO that stupid?? I sure hope not.
by forget on Feb 1, 2012 2:51 PM MST via mobile up reply actions 3 recs
You are either just making things up
or you really do not know the definition of fact and reality…
The reality is that there’s probably less than a 5% chance that Steve is here next season.
I thought the chart I posted above might help. I guess not.
BAMF goes HAM.
See, right now you are attacking the person instead of the idea.
You can’t deny that the chances of steve staying are slim. That’s what I am saying.
by forget on Feb 1, 2012 5:15 PM MST via mobile up reply actions 2 recs
I'm just pointing out your use of the words "fact" and "reality"
when there is no fact or reality in your statements.
BAMF goes HAM.
We will probably not have him next season.
That is “reality”. i guess its not a fact that he will leave though, just like its not a fact that the sun will still be in the sky when i wake up tomorrow…who knows i guess.
Gotta side with Brian on this one.
We will probably not have him next season.
That’s not fact or reality. That’s probability. I can accept that we “probably” won’t have Nash next season because we don’t know anything for sure. But until he’s really gone, the reality is he’s still on this team.
Just because Steve Nash has that "dirty hipster" look doesn't mean he's in need of a shower. Steve Nash bathes in the tears of his victims on a nightly basis.
Mark of a Beast, baby. Mark of a Beast.
this is getting silly, but i think i'm right.
i said we will probably not have him next season, and that is reality. So as long as the probability of him leaving is greater than 50%(which it is, most guys would join a winning team at the end of their career), then the reality is that he will probably not be here next season.
now that we settled that, you guys should explain why steve would not leave. and i don’t want to hear any BS about how he feels “loyalty” towards the suns…
You went from 5% chance he stays
To saying it is just greater than 50%. It is probably over 50% chance he leaves but it is not less than 5% chance he stays.
He has had all his success here in his career, he likes the city, his family is here (kids) and he gets along great with his teammates. I am not trying to make a loyalty argument as to why he stays. You say most players want to go to a winning team at the end of their career, but Steve Nash is not most players. We will see what happens in the offseason.
There is a good chance he leaves but there is a decent chance he stays. I think the FO realizes that they can get more out of Steve Nash for 8-10 mil than any other team. It would be a major overpay for other teams but for us it seems like a steal.
"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!
"You went from 5% chance he stays To saying it is just greater than 50%. "
i was saying that to make a point. He will probably not be here this season, because theres greater than a 50% chance that he leaves. I said that this is “reality”, because “probably” means there’s a greater than 50% chance of something happening( i guess it depends on the person though). I personally believe the odds are way more favorable towards him leaving. i
Even for 8-10 mill, he's still underpaid considering what he brings to this team.
After the divorce, he wants to stay close to his kids so I’m pretty sure he’d be inclined to stay in Phoenix. Plus, if our FO manages to make a splash with some good free agent acquisitions (including new management hirings), I don’t see why he wouldn’t consider staying.
The only reason people are getting on you, forget, is because you’re passing off your own thoughts/opinions as fact when in reality they’re not. It is your belief Steve will be gone next season, which is fine. But to say it’s an actual fact that Steve Nash will leave when it hasn’t even happened yet is just beyond me.
Just because Steve Nash has that "dirty hipster" look doesn't mean he's in need of a shower. Steve Nash bathes in the tears of his victims on a nightly basis.
Mark of a Beast, baby. Mark of a Beast.
by NashMV3 on Feb 2, 2012 3:08 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
exactly, +1
"I don't lift weights because they are heavy, and I don't run because it makes me tired." - Charles Barkley
The "experts" are always right
Considering they have always plotted against the Suns. And every national media head wants to see him outside of Phx for their own enjoyment.
"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!
I am not going to say he IS coming back
But you can’t say it is only a 5% chance he stays. There is a report saying we are offering 8-10 mill for him to stay (that had a post about it here in the last few days). He loves this city and organization and has put his soul into the Suns for his whole time he has been here.
He is not like these players nowadays that try to team up with all the best players and migrate to huge markets for the best shot at a win. That has never been Nash and I don’t think it ever will be Nash.
"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!
at a title*
"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!
This
Any “expert” saying that he is leaving next season is basically rosterbating considering he’s never said anything to say that he would be.
BAMF goes HAM.
I have seen them
But those were all before I heard that the Suns want to offer Nash 8-10 mil.
"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!
The experts also said we were going to trade him each of the last two years.
“Experts” make things up. Most of these “experts” are analysts, meaning they are giving their opinion. There has been no reporting of facts to the matter, just speculation.
Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!
Read my thoughts on Creighton University athletics at Creightonian.com
I also edit things at Ridiculous Upside. Check it out.
Exactly.
Until you see Coro, the Woj, or Marc Spears start tweeting that a Steve Nash trade is in the works, we’re in the clear.
Just because Steve Nash has that "dirty hipster" look doesn't mean he's in need of a shower. Steve Nash bathes in the tears of his victims on a nightly basis.
Mark of a Beast, baby. Mark of a Beast.
we probably won't trade him. there's no where to trade him.
i’m saying he will probably leave after the season.
here's one.
http://espn.go.com/nba/dailydime/_/page/dime-120106-08/steve-nash-future-phoenix-suns
According to one theory circulating in GM circles, Phoenix favors keeping Nash for the entire season at least partly because it knows it can’t possibly get multiple difference-making assets for him now, having held onto the league’s fifth-oldest player for so long instead of moving him sooner. And if Nash elects to walk away in July, deciding it’s finally time to put himself first after resisting any urges to force his way out like we expect NBA stars to do when rings are out of reach, Sarver will be able to say that he tried his hardest to hang onto No. 13 and just couldn’t stop him.
Haha it was like the 2nd or 3rd link down on google
The quote just shows that other GMs are already talking about Sarvers plan for Steve leaving.
Most of the talk comes from TV and radio. Nash isn’t getting articles written about him right now. Maybe when we get closer to the trade deadline, that will change. There’s just too many other storylines out there right now, Steve leaving doesn’t really compare to them.
by forget on Feb 3, 2012 9:10 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
Just stop saying things like "the fact is he's leaving"
and opt for “I think” or “my best guess is” and we can be done with this silly discussion.
BAMF goes HAM.
Good Start, but still...
This only describes the successes that come from the draft, this still doesn’t accurately describe how common it is for a great player to come from the draft. And the odds of our team drafting that player even with a high pick.
Check out my blog:
http://walkingonthesuns.blog.com/
by Keith Owen Martin on Feb 1, 2012 11:57 PM MST reply actions
For that you need a way toa ssess players
Sadly, as no one agrees on a metric to do that, it is practically impossible.
That is exactly the question though – what are the odds of getting a good player in drafts in general, and in this specific one in particular.
the exact odds are kind of irrelevant..
.. because you can figure they are much much higher than acquiring a player of that caliber through free agency.
Can you name 5 players that changed teams through free agency while they were relevant in the last 25 years? I am not talking about Malone, Payton, Jordan etc switching teams at the end of their careers.
Since 1995 for example I can think of only Shaquille O’Neal and Lebron James. Penny Hardaway when doing the sign and trade with the Suns was already damaged goods. Scottie Pippen when signing with the Blazers still had success but I would like to argue that he also was declining already. Grant Hill was damaged goods.
Tracy McGrady was a raw talent when Orlando signed him, not even an alllstar level player.
These type of talents usually do not hit the free agent market and even if there is a long list of interested teams and when that happens you need to be in a great situation to be considered.
In the past 2 years
We just saw Lebron and Amare switch teams. Carmelo, Deron Williams, and Chris Paul get traded because they were going to switch teams. And we still have all the talks about Dwight Howard and Deron Williams (again) this summer.
That’s 6 of the top players in the league. Not to mention we’ve got a guy who wears number 13 who came to our team via free agency and won 2 MVPs. That’s pretty relevent.
BAMF goes HAM.
by brian13 on Feb 3, 2012 10:15 AM MST up reply actions 2 recs
and here's the reason none of those players qualify:
because shut up, that’s why!
Damn, brian's coming guns blazing!
Just because Steve Nash has that "dirty hipster" look doesn't mean he's in need of a shower. Steve Nash bathes in the tears of his victims on a nightly basis.
Mark of a Beast, baby. Mark of a Beast.
Amare
Damaged goods and clearly not franchise caliber, at least since his microfracture.
And please read what I wrote, Carmelo, Deron and Williams got TRADED not signed.
We have no assets for acquire someone like that.
by TruthTelling on Feb 3, 2012 11:47 AM MST up reply actions
Amar’e was still Amar’e when he signed with NYK. He was a beast last year. It wasn’t until recently that he became a shell of himself. We figured he might break down at some point, but I don’t think he qualifies as damaged goods the way the others you mentioned do.
And while you have a point about his argument with the traded players, he was right that the only reason they were traded was because they wanted to leave in free agency. Deron Williams still might be available. So there is a recent trend of stars leaving their teams, and I think that is what he was trying to say.
Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!
Read my thoughts on Creighton University athletics at Creightonian.com
I also edit things at Ridiculous Upside. Check it out.
He wasn't as good as people think last year
He was good as a scorer, but has regressed most other ways as player, and wasn’t AS efficient as a scorer (still good, just not extraordinary like usual).
This year, I hope he can get back, but his shooting is well down. although the last few games he looks a bit better – more bouncy.
you have to take into account
that he was doing things mostly by himself. he didn’t have steve setting him up for as many easy layups/dunks.
scoring 25 per game while shooting 50% under those circumstances is really good.
..
he wasn’t he was an unsirured mega contract that is all. If he wasn’t damaged goods he would have never left phoenix.
The only star who recently LEFT his team in that category is Lebron James. Deron Williams will be traded or stays at NJ.
So
Amare is not a franchise player and Lamarcus Aldridge is? That makes complete sense.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=aldrila01&y1=2011&p2=stoudam01&y2=2011
BAMF goes HAM.
LMA > Amare
Sorry but LMA does not have bum knees, is younger and can play decent defense.
by TruthTelling on Feb 4, 2012 10:49 AM MST up reply actions
What about busts?
In almost every draft there are dramatic busts. Adam Morrison comes instantly to mind. Complete list for three drafts recent it is fair to assess:
2006: 7 (8) – Adam Morrison, Shelden Williams, Foye, Patrick O’Bryant, Mouhammed Saer Sene, Hilton Armstrong and Brewer. And Brandon Roy? Hmmm… maybe!
2007: 6 (7) – Yi Jianlian, Corey Brewer, Brandan Wright, Acie Law, Julian Wright and Al Thornton, with Oden a “sofar” bust.
2008: 3 (7) – Joe Alexander, Brandon Rush, Jason Thompson, with Jerryd Bayless, and Anthony Randolph, and maybe even Brook Lopez and Beasley.
7 in 2006, 6 or 7 in 2007, between 3 and 7 in 2008. That’s a 50% chance of whoofing on the harsh judging side, and in all three drafts, top 3 picks sucked – with Oden and Beasley at the very least not helping the team that drafted them.
I think that people don’t realise how hard projecting college players to the NBA is, and how regularly teams fail, especially when they take risks (like they should) on guys like Cousins. I hope we draft well, I hope we get a franchise guy I truly do, but the odds, even at the best of times, are long.
Brandon Roy
a bust? Seriously, that is ridiculous. Same for Jason Thompson, Anthony Randolph, Brook Lopez did you even check the draft position ? Those guys are not busts. Not even
Oden a bust? lol
God it is hard to argue with crap like that. And even then what about busts, do you want me to count the amount of free agent signings that are busts? That make millions of dollars long term and are untradeable?
2010
1. John Wall
2. Evan Turner
3. Derrick Favors
4. Wesley Johnson
5. DeMarcus Cousins
Wesley Johnson is the only one who might turn out to be a bust but even then he is still a role player that doesn’t make too much money
2009
1. Blake Griffin
2. Hasheem Thabeet
3. James Harden
4. Tyreke Evans
5. Ricky Rubio
Hasheem Thabeet as a bust, the others are 2 franchise players and 2 players who can be multiple allstars.
2008
1. Michael Beasley
2. OJ Mayo
3. Russell Westbrook
4. Kevin Love
5. Danilo Galinari
One or two franchise players and 3 borderline allstar talents
2007
1. Greg Oden
2. Kevin Durant
3. Al Horford
4. Mike Conley
5. Jeff Green
Two franchise players one of who has extremely bad luck with injuries simply. An allstar level talent and 2 very good role players and Conley still gets better every season.
2006
1. Andrea Bargnani
2. LaMarcus Aldridge
3. Adam Morrison
4. Tyrus Thomas
5. Shelden Williams
(6. Roy , 8. Gay)
This was probably the weakest draft in recent history. You got 1 franchise player, 1 allstar talent and one very good role player with upside and injury luck here and 2 busts Morrison and Williams.
2005.
1. Andrew Bogut
2. Marvin Williams
3. Deron Williams
4. Chris Paul
5. Raymond Felton
Ok 2 role players, 2 franchise players and the player most considered the 2nd best center in the league for the most part of his career until injuries hit him.
2004
1. Dwight Howard
2. Emeka Okafor
3. Ben Gordon
4. Shaun Livingston
5. Devin Harris
Ok here you got one of the top players in the league, Devin Harris was an allstar at one point, Shaun Livingston suffered one of the most tragic injuries ever, Ben Gordon was good enough to get a huge contract and Okafor has been one of the better centers in the NBA for a long time. Not the talent with the highest ceiling but no real bust really.
2003
1. Lebron James
2. Darko Milicic
3. Carmelo Anthony
4. Chris Bosh
5. Dwyane Wade
Ok here you have 3-4 franchise players and a role player that can be considered a bust because of the talent picked after him.
So those are 40 top 5 picks
I would say you have 3 busts right there
Thabeet, Shelden Williams, Adam Morrison
Absolute average role players 2
Wesley Johnson, Milicic
compile a list of players who signed for between the MLE and 10M$ per season..
and then come back to me and tell me how many of those worked out and how many crippled their teams with the long term contracts.
If you draft a bust you get rid off him within 3 years. Most likely you can still get something in value from another team that hopes to develop the kid.
A little bit of correction
2008 draft order was:
1. Derrick Rose
2. Michael Beasley
3. OJ Mayo
4. Russell Westbrook
5. Kevin Love
Women were the reason I became a monk - and, ah, the reason I switched back... -Morte, Planescape Torment
here's a way to look at it.
in order to have a good team, you need to have good players that are cheap, right? If you sign all of your guys in free agency, they probably will be overpayed. There are exceptions of course, like with steve nash, but in general, this is true.
So where do you get these cheap, good players? the draft.
And of course, the only way to get a lebron, rose, dwight, or wade is usually in the top 5 of the draft. So there’s that.
its widely known that in any sport the draft is the most important thing in building a team, i dont know how this is debatable lol.
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