FanPost

Some Historical Draft Analysis




I did some work here based on the top 100 players voting done on the realgm player comparison board.

You can find the list here http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1123731 as I don't know how to embed my excel sheet here.

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Avg Draft Position Top 100 9,4 ( excluding players that were not drafted )

Avg Draft Position Top 10 3,22 excludes Wilt Chamberlain
Avg Draft Position #10-20 7 excludes Moses Malone
Avg Draft Position #20-30 4,9
Avg Draft Position #30-40 21,6 -> Gilmore #117, Gervin #40, Stockton #16 and Drexler #14
Avg Draft Position #40-50 4,1
Avg Draft Position #50-60 12,3 excludes Paul Arizin
Avg Draft Position #60-70 12,3
Avg Draft Position #70-80 7,9
Avg Draft Position #80-90 9,57 excludes Connie Hawkins,Ben Wallace and Bill Sharman
Avg Draft Position #90-100 21,44 excludes Dave DeBusschere

The extremes are results of players like Gilmore at 117, Gervin at 40, Ginobili at 57, Laimbeer 65, Dandridge 45 these players stand out in terms of their draft position compared to the rest.

avg position drafts in
00s 2,86
90s 7,84 excludes Ben Wallace undrafted
80s 9,3
70s 16,27 excludes Moses Malone

Eliminating extremes here
avg position drafts in
90s minus Wallace and Ginobili 4,6
70s minus Gilmore and Gervin 10,05

Undrafted Players : 8 Ben Wallace, Moses Malone, Connie Hawkins, DeBusschere, Jerry Lucas, Chamberlain, Sharman, Arizin most of them territorial picks



So 49 out of the 92 drafted top 100 players were top 3 picks. 75 of the 92 drafted top 100 players were top 9 picks.

Drafting higher is always better everyone should have known that before. With the restriction of highschool players not being able to enter the league anymore and foreign players being scouted much more extensively since Dirk Nowitzki there are even less surprises in the draft as evidenced by the average draft position of the great players in the last 10 years.

And that trend will not change with Kevin Durant #2, Blake Griffin #1, Derek Rose #1, Russell Westbrook #4, Kevin Love #5, John Wall #1, Kyrie Irving #1, Ricky Rubio #5 and other possible candidates eventually getting in that list.

When you look back at the last 25 years and the franchise players that have been in the league the only franchise players not drafted in the top 5 were Steve Nash #15, Kobe Bryant #13, Tracy McGrady #9, Dirk Nowitzki #9 and Brandon Roy #6.
I do not consider Manu Ginobili or Ben Wallace franchise players.

Brandon Roy misses the cut by 1 spot, McGrady and Kobe were highschoolers before the hype and teams were wary plus Kobe refused to work out for almost anyone and Dirk Nowitzki was a foreign prospect at a time where oversea scouting wasn't where it is now. Dirk Nowitzki was a pioneer pick in that regard pretty much.

You have to go all the way back to 1985 Karl Malone at #13 and John Stockton in 1984 at 16 to find franchise players that were drafted outside the top 10.

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