Phoenix Suns Vs. Atlanta Hawks Game Preview
The good news for the Phoenix Suns is that Steve Nash and Grant Hill are playing tonight in the last night of back-to-back-to-backs against the Atlanta Hawks at US Airways. Even more good news for the Suns is that Michael Redd and Markieff Morris are playing well, both coming off 20 point efforts last night against the Nuggets. The bad news for the Suns is they don't have Jeremy Lin, and it is doubtful that the Suns will trade Steve Nash, Marcin Gortat, and Jared Dudley for him. Bummer. Pardon the sarcasm. We all know the bad news for the Suns is_________________(insert your most favorite negative statement about your favorite NBA team).
The Suns played arguably their best game of the season in the last meeting versus the Atlanta Hawks, winning 99-90, with Steve Nash leading the way with 24 points and 11 assists while the Suns shot over 50% from the field while limiting the Hawks to 39%. It would have been a laugher except for the 15 points the Suns dropped in the 4th quarter.
Since that game, the Hawks have gone 2-2, winning against the likes of the Pacers and Magic, while losing to the Lakers and the Heat. In those last four games, the Hawks shot, 46%, 43%, 38%, and 34% from the field.
Both squads played last night, and both squads are on 2 game losing streaks. Last night the Suns chose to rest Nash and Hill, and the Hawks rested Stackhouse and Pargo. Mostly because the two aren't in the rotation. Thus, the Suns should be fairly rested and ready to defend their home court against the Hawks.
Your Phoenix Suns are currently 12-16, sitting in 3rd place in the Pacific and 13th in the conference 3 games out of a playoff spot. Many of you may have given up on watching the standings, but I bring this up because Alvin Gentry has not. And perhaps as a simple realist, or perhaps as a means of encouraging his team or the fans, Gentry has this to say to us all:
"To tell you the truth, if you look at the teams in the West, there's no one running away with this thing. Oklahoma City has 21 wins. You get past the Clippers, who have 17, and there is a logjam to the bottom of the conference. We had four home losses that are awful. You take those and make them wins and we have 16 wins."
So you're saying there's a chance?
Always. There's always a chance. And so I continue to watch and hope, albeit realistically, which is different than pessimistically, but not by much, because I cannot help but think about several things:
The Suns are 6-12 vs. the WC, including losses to, well everyone: 12th place Golden State, 8th place Portland, 7th place Houston (twice), 6th place Denver (without Nash & Hill), 5th place, LA Lakers, 4th place Dallas (twice), San Antonio, and of course Oklahoma City. In fact the only teams in the West the Suns have defeated are the Hornets, Grizzlies, and Blazers.
Where am I going with this? Nowhere, like the Suns, unless something dramatic occurs like_____________(insert your favorite positive something there). You have to defend your home floor, and you have to win in your own conference if you hope to get anywhere, yes?
But onto new and different things.
The big stat heads and sophisticated basketball types like to get into some pretty sophisticated numbers when attempting to analyze individual and team performance. One of these statistics is the very famous PER, or Player efficiency Rating. This statistic is designed to measure a player's per minute production by analyzing accomplishments, adding in good things while subtracting bad things. Keep in mind the average for PER is 15.
So instead of the same old thing, I provide you with PER, courtesy of www.basketball-reference.com:
SUNS
| Rk | Player | G | MP | PER ▾ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Nash | 26 | 820 | 23.2 |
| 2 | Marcin Gortat | 29 | 948 | 21.0 |
| 3 | Jared Dudley | 28 | 844 | 15.3 |
| 4 | Markieff Morris | 29 | 599 | 14.0 |
| 5 | Hakim Warrick | 20 | 320 | 13.6 |
| 6 | Channing Frye | 29 | 677 | 13.5 |
| 7 | Michael Redd | 16 | 233 | 13.2 |
| 8 | Josh Childress | 17 | 241 | 11.9 |
| 9 | Robin Lopez | 27 | 341 | 11.2 |
| 10 | Shannon Brown | 23 | 485 | 11.1 |
| 11 | Grant Hill | 27 | 729 | 10.7 |
| 12 | Ronnie Price | 27 | 431 | 8.9 |
| 13 | Sebastian Telfair | 23 | 294 | 6.9 |
HAWKS
| Rk | Player | G | MP | PER ▾ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jerry Stackhouse | 12 | 70 | 19.9 |
| 2 | Al Horford | 11 | 348 | 19.6 |
| 3 | Josh Smith | 29 | 994 | 19.3 |
| 4 | Joe Johnson | 29 | 1044 | 17.4 |
| 5 | Marvin Williams | 26 | 633 | 16.6 |
| 6 | Jeff Teague | 29 | 942 | 16.3 |
| 7 | Tracy McGrady | 25 | 450 | 15.6 |
| 8 | Zaza Pachulia | 29 | 680 | 14.3 |
| 9 | Vladimir Radmanovic | 28 | 483 | 13.2 |
| 10 | Willie Green | 29 | 451 | 13.2 |
| 11 | Ivan Johnson | 24 | 356 | 13.2 |
| 12 | Donald Sloan | 5 | 20 | 12.1 |
| 13 | Jannero Pargo | 25 | 274 | 10.7 |
| 14 | Erick Dampier | 3 | 24 | 9.3 |
| 15 | Kirk Hinrich | 11 | 204 | 8.6 |
| 16 | Jason Collins | 13 | 137 | 2.3 |
Of course, PER has fatal flaws like most statistics, which is why you see Grant Hill at #11. You can't measure something that isn't really measurable by numbers. Grant Hill's defense for example. While he doesn't get bushels of blocked shots and steals, he is a defensive specialist who does his job primarily by moving his feet and body, staying in front of his man, getting a hand in his face, and taking charges, which, as far as I can tell, is not figured into the equation. So Mr. Hollinger, you aren't that smart, pal.
And no, I didn't include Jermey Lin's PER. You can find that on your own.
THOUGHTS
Why not a win tonight? Nash and Hill are "run down" but they at least had last night off. The Hawks are downward trending in shooting percentage, and the Suns D'd them up pretty well last time. Horford is still out, and Erick Dampier has been signed for depth. Really. It would be nice to pick up a home W before two straight against the Lakers. This is a winnable game for the Suns, and I expect a quality effort.
Check for the game thread 30 minutes before the start of the game.
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Can we try to keep this thread on topic?
Jury might be returning a verdict on the Suns season pretty soon.
Every loss at this stage is like another nail in the coffin.
Redd has been rounding into form, but it hasn’t been enough.
Every other player on the bench has been ineffective lately except Special K.
Morris and Michael have been bringing it, but the rest of the bench has seemed listless.
You really have to wonder if some of them have checked out….
Languishing in 13th place is unchartered waters for this team.
In their defense, this being a bridge year is part of their plan (hopefully they have one)
Nevertheless, a win against the Hawks could help fans keep some spark of hope alive.
It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.
by Jim Coughenour on Feb 15, 2012 3:59 PM MST reply actions 9 recs
Love it Jim
Very cheeky
Carter having a glazed-eyes contest with Boris Diaw. Carter's winning, but Diaw might respond by eating his eyes.
looking at the Knicks schedule
I’d say the linsanity ends in 3 weeks.
They’ve got two more crappy teams to play. They could possibly Lin 8 in a row before they lose to Dallas, then beat New Jersey and Atlanta. The Miami game will draw a lot of attention. They’ll lose there, beat Cleveland and by the time the all-star break ends, people will be done with lin puns.
Of course, I’ll probably be wrong and the Linsanity will last forever because we’ll sign him this summer and then go on to win multiple Championships and name all our kids Lin.
Don't trade Dudley!
Lol at first I was like" why do you keep italicizing everything"
Then I saw your puzzle riddler swag.
+ (L)infinti
"Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose"
by phxpurple on Feb 15, 2012 5:11 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
I hope all the Suns slept on a friend's couch last night.
There’s always hope.
PER is stoopid.
Nice write-up, Wil. As always.
"The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty."
"In the long run the pessimist may be proved right, but the optimist has a better time on the trip."
Imagine if they slept in the same room
with couches 10+ deep. Lopez and Gortat got the big leather one while Steve was probably on a recliner since he’s good to go.
Twitter: @FredLegittt
Number 1 reflection from this preview?
Jerry Stackhouse is the Hawks best player. As suspected.
No longer trying to light Vince Carter on fire.
actually it was an ODE to my pal Hollinger. You were close though.
Blogging Suns Basketball. Twitter: @willcantrellphx
by Wil Cantrell on Feb 15, 2012 4:05 PM MST up reply actions
We beat them last time
We can do it again right? RIGHHTT?!
Glad I’ve missed the back to back to back games…can’t believe I just said that.
Twitter: @FredLegittt
actually
i learned from AZ Central/Coro/etc all the suns once played 5 games in 5 nights in like 1970 something. Those Suns went 2-3.
Im droppin 411 bombs like an intelligent guy tonight.
Blogging Suns Basketball. Twitter: @willcantrellphx
by Wil Cantrell on Feb 15, 2012 4:09 PM MST up reply actions
Did they run into Jerry Stackhouse during that 5 straight streak?
I would imagine they did.
No longer trying to light Vince Carter on fire.
by Scott Howard on Feb 15, 2012 4:10 PM MST up reply actions
yes, i believe that was Jerry’s rookie year. and Jeremy Linn was only 2 years old. In case you were wondering about Jeremy Linn.
Blogging Suns Basketball. Twitter: @willcantrellphx
by Wil Cantrell on Feb 15, 2012 4:14 PM MST up reply actions
I never am wondering about him but thanks.
I’ll stick to my Stackhouse gags.
No longer trying to light Vince Carter on fire.
by Scott Howard on Feb 15, 2012 4:15 PM MST up reply actions
hes caught the nation by storm! he’s had 3 good games! mark jackson’s about to get fired for cutting him! he saved D’Antoni’s job! Get with it, Howard. Order up your Jersey while supplies last.
Blogging Suns Basketball. Twitter: @willcantrellphx
by Wil Cantrell on Feb 15, 2012 4:20 PM MST up reply actions
which really isn't that impressive...
you can just order an authentic Harvard diploma from any one of the 50 junk emails I get on a daily basis. They say that they will even spell your name properly for an extra $5.
These past few games
Going into each of them, I felt like we could win. I still feel that way. There’s no reason to go into a game thinking we’ll lose. For reals though, we can win. We’ve beat the Hawks before.
If we lose, I won’t be surprised. I think we know what to expect from the 2011-12 Phoenix Suns.
Don't trade Dudley!
Fixed that for you
I think we know what not to expect from the 2011-12 Phoenix Suns.
Voted most likely to say "I told you so"
PER has limitations, just like every single stat does
But if you know what you’re looking at, it’s pretty easy to explain the oddities you see in these lists. It’s understood that defense isn’t adequately accounted for, which is why you have Hakim Warrick above Grant Hill. And all you have to do is see that Stackhouse has only played 70 minutes all season to see that his PER isn’t reliable due to small sample size.
Having said that, look at those lists again. Aren’t they fairly accurate in telling us who the best and worst players are on each team? They mostly pass the eyeball test, no?
Blogging Suns basketball for Bright Side of the Sun from California wine country.
Twitter: @EastBayRaymundo
yep
TMac slightly more efficient than Dudley, Zaza more efficient than Frye. Ouch. Only times I feel confident with a 4thQ lead is if Nash has been scoring or the Frudley jump shots are falling.
And 17.4 PER = All-Star? Josh Smith was robbed. Joe Johnson getting the max, now that’s a travesty.
by ninecharacters on Feb 15, 2012 6:08 PM MST up reply actions
Game 976 of Grant Hill
1000th is very very reachable
You can follow me on twitter.
sports_dude33
Looking ahead for Grant Hill's 1000th game.
Seth Pollack is a game time decision
We’re gonna lose for sure now.
Twitter: @FredLegittt
by modernage13 on Feb 15, 2012 5:19 PM MST via mobile reply actions
I was feeling like crap but took some of my wife’s special magic pills (homeopathy) and am feeling better, thanks. I could have gone tonight but opted to save myself for the playoffs…I’m older than Nash and not quite as fit.
Twitter me at: @sethpo
by Seth Pollack on Feb 15, 2012 5:52 PM MST up reply actions
they are special…aconitum napellus and hepar sulf
Twitter me at: @sethpo
by Seth Pollack on Feb 15, 2012 6:01 PM MST up reply actions
that’s what the little bottles say…don’t ask me. I just take what she gives me. She’s the doctor.
Twitter me at: @sethpo
by Seth Pollack on Feb 15, 2012 6:03 PM MST up reply actions
I think that was Barry Bonds' grand jury testimony
that’s what the little bottles say…don’t ask me. I just take what she gives me. She’s the doctor.
Blogging Suns basketball for Bright Side of the Sun from California wine country.
Twitter: @EastBayRaymundo
by East Bay Ray on Feb 15, 2012 8:15 PM MST up reply actions
Might as well play since we’re not going to the playoffs
Twitter: @FredLegittt
by modernage13 on Feb 15, 2012 6:40 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
Completely off topic:
I updated my sig for the first time since joining almost about a year ago… but it hasn’t shown up. Does it usually take a while, or did I do something wrong?
I lurk.
Cmon guys.. Win this game for Big L
He died on this exact day 13 years ago… February 15, 1999. He was only 24 years old. He was probably gonna go on to be the best rapper in history. His life was cut way too short.
we’re cheap, like to drink and are pissed off.
WHO WANTS A FREE SHARPIE?? -- Blake Griffin
Big L seems like an appropriate theme for tonight's game.
Which team will honor Big L the most?
by oLLiE Boombayay on Feb 15, 2012 5:49 PM MST up reply actions
Does anybody think our problem is Gentry?
I love Alvin Gentry. I think he is a much better coach than Terry Porter and at least even with Mike D’antonie. But maybe with all these new faces, he is having trouble getting this team to mesh with his coaching. Now to bring up Lin! Lin didn’t do well til he was put with D’antonie :D
Have you ever heard anybody in the NBA refer to Gentry as a great coach?
Not that he has much to work with. The best coaches can turn nothing into something.
Would some other up and coming coach do better? I doubt it.
I don’t see Sarver firing Gentry before his contract expires.
by oLLiE Boombayay on Feb 15, 2012 6:34 PM MST up reply actions
True. I really liked some of the decisions he made when we got to the western finals,
but I also didn’t like many decisions he’s made ever since then… starting carter and lopez for so long…

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