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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Phoenix Suns Vs. Atlanta Hawks Game Preview

The good news for the Phoenix Suns is that Steve Nash and Grant Hill are playing tonight in the last night of back-to-back-to-backs against the Atlanta Hawks at US Airways. Even more good news for the Suns is that Michael Redd and Markieff Morris are playing well, both coming off 20 point efforts last night against the Nuggets. The bad news for the Suns is they don't have Jeremy Lin, and it is doubtful that the Suns will trade Steve Nash, Marcin Gortat, and Jared Dudley for him. Bummer. Pardon the sarcasm. We all know the bad news for the Suns is_________________(insert your most favorite negative statement about your favorite NBA team).

The Suns played arguably their best game of the season in the last meeting versus the Atlanta Hawks, winning 99-90, with Steve Nash leading the way with 24 points and 11 assists while the Suns shot over 50% from the field while limiting the Hawks to 39%. It would have been a laugher except for the 15 points the Suns dropped in the 4th quarter.

Since that game, the Hawks have gone 2-2, winning against the likes of the Pacers and Magic, while losing to the Lakers and the Heat. In those last four games, the Hawks shot, 46%, 43%, 38%, and 34% from the field.

Both squads played last night, and both squads are on 2 game losing streaks. Last night the Suns chose to rest Nash and Hill, and the Hawks rested Stackhouse and Pargo. Mostly because the two aren't in the rotation. Thus, the Suns should be fairly rested and ready to defend their home court against the Hawks.

Star-divide

Your Phoenix Suns are currently 12-16, sitting in 3rd place in the Pacific and 13th in the conference 3 games out of a playoff spot. Many of you may have given up on watching the standings, but I bring this up because Alvin Gentry has not. And perhaps as a simple realist, or perhaps as a means of encouraging his team or the fans, Gentry has this to say to us all:

"To tell you the truth, if you look at the teams in the West, there's no one running away with this thing. Oklahoma City has 21 wins. You get past the Clippers, who have 17, and there is a logjam to the bottom of the conference. We had four home losses that are awful. You take those and make them wins and we have 16 wins."


So you're saying there's a chance?

Always. There's always a chance. And so I continue to watch and hope, albeit realistically, which is different than pessimistically, but not by much, because I cannot help but think about several things:

The Suns are 6-12 vs. the WC, including losses to, well everyone: 12th place Golden State, 8th place Portland, 7th place Houston (twice), 6th place Denver (without Nash & Hill), 5th place, LA Lakers, 4th place Dallas (twice), San Antonio, and of course Oklahoma City. In fact the only teams in the West the Suns have defeated are the Hornets, Grizzlies, and Blazers.

Where am I going with this? Nowhere, like the Suns, unless something dramatic occurs like_____________(insert your favorite positive something there). You have to defend your home floor, and you have to win in your own conference if you hope to get anywhere, yes?

But onto new and different things.

The big stat heads and sophisticated basketball types like to get into some pretty sophisticated numbers when attempting to analyze individual and team performance. One of these statistics is the very famous PER, or Player efficiency Rating. This statistic is designed to measure a player's per minute production by analyzing accomplishments, adding in good things while subtracting bad things. Keep in mind the average for PER is 15.

So instead of the same old thing, I provide you with PER, courtesy of www.basketball-reference.com:

SUNS

Rk Player G MP PER
1 Steve Nash 26 820 23.2
2 Marcin Gortat 29 948 21.0
3 Jared Dudley 28 844 15.3
4 Markieff Morris 29 599 14.0
5 Hakim Warrick 20 320 13.6
6 Channing Frye 29 677 13.5
7 Michael Redd 16 233 13.2
8 Josh Childress 17 241 11.9
9 Robin Lopez 27 341 11.2
10 Shannon Brown 23 485 11.1
11 Grant Hill 27 729 10.7
12 Ronnie Price 27 431 8.9
13 Sebastian Telfair 23 294 6.9
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/15/2012.

HAWKS

Rk Player G MP PER
1 Jerry Stackhouse 12 70 19.9
2 Al Horford 11 348 19.6
3 Josh Smith 29 994 19.3
4 Joe Johnson 29 1044 17.4
5 Marvin Williams 26 633 16.6
6 Jeff Teague 29 942 16.3
7 Tracy McGrady 25 450 15.6
8 Zaza Pachulia 29 680 14.3
9 Vladimir Radmanovic 28 483 13.2
10 Willie Green 29 451 13.2
11 Ivan Johnson 24 356 13.2
12 Donald Sloan 5 20 12.1
13 Jannero Pargo 25 274 10.7
14 Erick Dampier 3 24 9.3
15 Kirk Hinrich 11 204 8.6
16 Jason Collins 13 137 2.3
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/15/2012.



Of course, PER has fatal flaws like most statistics, which is why you see Grant Hill at #11. You can't measure something that isn't really measurable by numbers. Grant Hill's defense for example. While he doesn't get bushels of blocked shots and steals, he is a defensive specialist who does his job primarily by moving his feet and body, staying in front of his man, getting a hand in his face, and taking charges, which, as far as I can tell, is not figured into the equation. So Mr. Hollinger, you aren't that smart, pal.

And no, I didn't include Jermey Lin's PER. You can find that on your own.

THOUGHTS


Why not a win tonight? Nash and Hill are "run down" but they at least had last night off. The Hawks are downward trending in shooting percentage, and the Suns D'd them up pretty well last time. Horford is still out, and Erick Dampier has been signed for depth. Really. It would be nice to pick up a home W before two straight against the Lakers. This is a winnable game for the Suns, and I expect a quality effort.

Check for the game thread 30 minutes before the start of the game.




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Comment 47 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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Love it Jim

Very cheeky

Carter having a glazed-eyes contest with Boris Diaw. Carter's winning, but Diaw might respond by eating his eyes.

by NashtySUNS on Feb 15, 2012 4:46 PM MST up reply actions  

looking at the Knicks schedule

I’d say the linsanity ends in 3 weeks.

They’ve got two more crappy teams to play. They could possibly Lin 8 in a row before they lose to Dallas, then beat New Jersey and Atlanta. The Miami game will draw a lot of attention. They’ll lose there, beat Cleveland and by the time the all-star break ends, people will be done with lin puns.

Of course, I’ll probably be wrong and the Linsanity will last forever because we’ll sign him this summer and then go on to win multiple Championships and name all our kids Lin.

Don't trade Dudley!

by Beavis 25 on Feb 15, 2012 4:53 PM MST up reply actions  

Lol at first I was like" why do you keep italicizing everything"

Then I saw your puzzle riddler swag.
+ (L)infinti

"Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose"

by phxpurple on Feb 15, 2012 5:11 PM MST via Android app up reply actions  

I hope all the Suns slept on a friend's couch last night.

There’s always hope.
PER is stoopid.

Nice write-up, Wil. As always.

"The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty."
"In the long run the pessimist may be proved right, but the optimist has a better time on the trip."

by haremoor on Feb 15, 2012 3:59 PM MST reply actions  

Number 1 reflection from this preview?

Jerry Stackhouse is the Hawks best player. As suspected.

No longer trying to light Vince Carter on fire.

by Scott Howard on Feb 15, 2012 4:01 PM MST reply actions  

actually it was an ODE to my pal Hollinger. You were close though.

Blogging Suns Basketball. Twitter: @willcantrellphx

by Wil Cantrell on Feb 15, 2012 4:05 PM MST up reply actions  

We beat them last time

We can do it again right? RIGHHTT?!

Glad I’ve missed the back to back to back games…can’t believe I just said that.

Twitter: @FredLegittt

by modernage13 on Feb 15, 2012 4:07 PM MST reply actions  

actually

i learned from AZ Central/Coro/etc all the suns once played 5 games in 5 nights in like 1970 something. Those Suns went 2-3.

Im droppin 411 bombs like an intelligent guy tonight.

Blogging Suns Basketball. Twitter: @willcantrellphx

by Wil Cantrell on Feb 15, 2012 4:09 PM MST up reply actions  

Did they run into Jerry Stackhouse during that 5 straight streak?

I would imagine they did.

No longer trying to light Vince Carter on fire.

by Scott Howard on Feb 15, 2012 4:10 PM MST up reply actions  

yes, i believe that was Jerry’s rookie year. and Jeremy Linn was only 2 years old. In case you were wondering about Jeremy Linn.

Blogging Suns Basketball. Twitter: @willcantrellphx

by Wil Cantrell on Feb 15, 2012 4:14 PM MST up reply actions  

I never am wondering about him but thanks.

I’ll stick to my Stackhouse gags.

No longer trying to light Vince Carter on fire.

by Scott Howard on Feb 15, 2012 4:15 PM MST up reply actions  

hes caught the nation by storm! he’s had 3 good games! mark jackson’s about to get fired for cutting him! he saved D’Antoni’s job! Get with it, Howard. Order up your Jersey while supplies last.

Blogging Suns Basketball. Twitter: @willcantrellphx

by Wil Cantrell on Feb 15, 2012 4:20 PM MST up reply actions  

which really isn't that impressive...

you can just order an authentic Harvard diploma from any one of the 50 junk emails I get on a daily basis. They say that they will even spell your name properly for an extra $5.

by Gildo on Feb 15, 2012 4:37 PM MST up reply actions  

These past few games

Going into each of them, I felt like we could win. I still feel that way. There’s no reason to go into a game thinking we’ll lose. For reals though, we can win. We’ve beat the Hawks before.

If we lose, I won’t be surprised. I think we know what to expect from the 2011-12 Phoenix Suns.

Don't trade Dudley!

by Beavis 25 on Feb 15, 2012 4:43 PM MST reply actions  

Fixed that for you

I think we know what not to expect from the 2011-12 Phoenix Suns.

Voted most likely to say "I told you so"

by jc79 on Feb 15, 2012 4:46 PM MST reply actions  

Gak stupid reply fail

Voted most likely to say "I told you so"

by jc79 on Feb 15, 2012 4:46 PM MST up reply actions  

PER has limitations, just like every single stat does

But if you know what you’re looking at, it’s pretty easy to explain the oddities you see in these lists. It’s understood that defense isn’t adequately accounted for, which is why you have Hakim Warrick above Grant Hill. And all you have to do is see that Stackhouse has only played 70 minutes all season to see that his PER isn’t reliable due to small sample size.

Having said that, look at those lists again. Aren’t they fairly accurate in telling us who the best and worst players are on each team? They mostly pass the eyeball test, no?

Blogging Suns basketball for Bright Side of the Sun from California wine country.
Twitter: @EastBayRaymundo

by East Bay Ray on Feb 15, 2012 4:55 PM MST reply actions  

yep

TMac slightly more efficient than Dudley, Zaza more efficient than Frye. Ouch. Only times I feel confident with a 4thQ lead is if Nash has been scoring or the Frudley jump shots are falling.

And 17.4 PER = All-Star? Josh Smith was robbed. Joe Johnson getting the max, now that’s a travesty.

by ninecharacters on Feb 15, 2012 6:08 PM MST up reply actions  

Game 976 of Grant Hill

1000th is very very reachable

You can follow me on twitter.

sports_dude33

Looking ahead for Grant Hill's 1000th game.

by sports_dude33 on Feb 15, 2012 5:08 PM MST reply actions  

Would be a huge achievement

I mean, who would’ve thought it, even 2, 3 years ago?

I lurk.

by SuperSteve on Feb 15, 2012 5:28 PM MST up reply actions  

Seth Pollack is a game time decision

We’re gonna lose for sure now.

Twitter: @FredLegittt

by modernage13 on Feb 15, 2012 5:19 PM MST via mobile reply actions  

I was feeling like crap but took some of my wife’s special magic pills (homeopathy) and am feeling better, thanks. I could have gone tonight but opted to save myself for the playoffs…I’m older than Nash and not quite as fit.

Twitter me at: @sethpo

by Seth Pollack on Feb 15, 2012 5:52 PM MST up reply actions  

they don't make you better

they just make you not give a shit.

by 2NASHTY on Feb 15, 2012 5:57 PM MST up reply actions  

they are special…aconitum napellus and hepar sulf

Twitter me at: @sethpo

by Seth Pollack on Feb 15, 2012 6:01 PM MST up reply actions  

that’s what the little bottles say…don’t ask me. I just take what she gives me. She’s the doctor.

Twitter me at: @sethpo

by Seth Pollack on Feb 15, 2012 6:03 PM MST up reply actions  

I think that was Barry Bonds' grand jury testimony

that’s what the little bottles say…don’t ask me. I just take what she gives me. She’s the doctor.

Blogging Suns basketball for Bright Side of the Sun from California wine country.
Twitter: @EastBayRaymundo

by East Bay Ray on Feb 15, 2012 8:15 PM MST up reply actions  

Might as well play since we’re not going to the playoffs

Twitter: @FredLegittt

by modernage13 on Feb 15, 2012 6:40 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

Completely off topic:

I updated my sig for the first time since joining almost about a year ago… but it hasn’t shown up. Does it usually take a while, or did I do something wrong?

I lurk.

by SuperSteve on Feb 15, 2012 5:30 PM MST reply actions  

Cmon guys.. Win this game for Big L

He died on this exact day 13 years ago… February 15, 1999. He was only 24 years old. He was probably gonna go on to be the best rapper in history. His life was cut way too short.

we’re cheap, like to drink and are pissed off.

WHO WANTS A FREE SHARPIE?? -- Blake Griffin

by ClipperBEAST on Feb 15, 2012 5:43 PM MST reply actions  

well can't say I'm familiar

but sure OK…Win it for Big L…and me,cuz I can’t pay the bet I made.

by 2NASHTY on Feb 15, 2012 5:54 PM MST up reply actions  

Does anybody think our problem is Gentry?

I love Alvin Gentry. I think he is a much better coach than Terry Porter and at least even with Mike D’antonie. But maybe with all these new faces, he is having trouble getting this team to mesh with his coaching. Now to bring up Lin! Lin didn’t do well til he was put with D’antonie :D

by Mattjew on Feb 15, 2012 5:55 PM MST reply actions  

Have you ever heard anybody in the NBA refer to Gentry as a great coach?

Not that he has much to work with. The best coaches can turn nothing into something.

Would some other up and coming coach do better? I doubt it.

I don’t see Sarver firing Gentry before his contract expires.

by oLLiE Boombayay on Feb 15, 2012 6:34 PM MST up reply actions  

True. I really liked some of the decisions he made when we got to the western finals,

but I also didn’t like many decisions he’s made ever since then… starting carter and lopez for so long…

by Mattjew on Feb 15, 2012 6:41 PM MST up reply actions  

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