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Fact Checking the Suns Rebuilding Research

How long has it historically taken to rebuild through the draft? The Suns recently intimated that the process can take between 8-10 years….

I have conducted my own research which I will share with you in an exercise that may support or refute the Suns position, or may just obfuscate the situation even more.

For the purpose of this analysis, the rebuilding period is defined as including the season prior to when the team first drafted in the top 5 and extending to the year before the team made the playoffs in consecutive years. This is an arbitrary set of parameters selected to promote a guideline. As is true with most analysis tools, it is not infallible.

The function of this research is not to be partisan or tendentious, but merely to show how the results unfold under the selected parameters. Please feel free to analyze the data and draw your own conclusions to share in the comments below.

Teams that made it back to the playoffs in consecutive seasons in 1-3 years (including the year they drafted in the top 5) are in green. 4-6 years is yellow. 7-9 years is orange. 10+ years is red. Gray highlights are used to indicate teams which have already been counted (they are not counted multiple times). The rebuilding timeframe is measured from their first top 5 selection.

Trudge on to view a ponderous set of data…

Star-divide

1990

New Jersey Nets

Derrick Coleman

1992

1993

2

Seattle SuperSonics

Gary Payton

1991

1992

1

Denver Nuggets

Chris Jackson

1994

1995

4

Orlando Magic

Dennis Scott

1994

1995

4

Charlotte Hornets

Kendall Gill

1993

1995

1997

1998

7

1991

Charlotte Hornets

Larry Johnson

1993

1995

1997

1998

6

New Jersey Nets

Kenny Anderson

1992

1993

1

Sacramento Kings

Billy Owens

1996

1999

2000

5

Denver Nuggets

Dikembe Mutombo

1994

1995

3

Miami Heat

Steve Smith

1992

1994

1996

1997

5

1992

Orlando Magic

Shaquille O'Neal

1994

1995

2

Charlotte Hornets

Alonzo Mourning

1993

1995

1997

1998

5

Minnesota Timberwolves

Christian Laettner

1997

1998

5

Dallas Mavericks

Jimmy Jackson

2001

2002

9

Denver Nuggets

LaPhonso Ellis

1994

1995

2

1993

Orlando Magic

Chris Webber

1994

1995

1

Philadelphia 76ers

Shawn Bradley

1999

2000

6

Golden State Warriors

Anfernee Hardaway

1994

2007

18

Dallas Mavericks

Jamal Mashburn

2001

2002

8

Minnesota Timberwolves

Isaiah Rider

1997

1998

4

1994

Milwaukee Bucks

Glenn Robinson

1999

2000

5

Dallas Mavericks

JasonKidd

2001

2002

7

Detroit Pistons

Grant Hill

1996

1997

2

Minnesota Timberwolves

Donyell Marshall

1997

1998

3

Washington Bullets

Juwan Howard

1997

2005

2006

11

1995

Golden State Warriors

Joe Smith

2007

Los Angeles Clippers

Antonio McDyess

1997

2006

16

Philadelphia 76ers

Jerry Stackhouse

1999

2000

4

Washington Bullets

Rasheed Wallace

1997

2005

2006

10

Minnesota Timberwolves

Kevin Garnett

1997

1998

2

1996

Philadelphia 76ers

Allen Iverson

1999

2000

3

Toronto Raptors

Marcus Camby

2000

2001

4

Vancouver Grizzlies

Shareef Abdur-Rahim

2004

2005

8

Milwaukee Bucks

Stephon Marbury

1999

2000

3

Minnesota Timberwolves

Ray Allen

1997

1998

1

1997

San Antonio Spurs

Tim Duncan

1998

1999

1

Philadelphia 76ers

Keith Van Horn

1999

2000

2

Boston Celtics

Chauncey Billups

2002

2003

5

Vancouver Grizzlies

Antonio Daniels

2004

2005

7

Denver Nuggets

Tony Battie

2004

2005

7

1998

Los Angeles Clippers

Michael Olowokandi

2006

Vancouver Grizzlies

Mike Bibby

2004

2005

6

Denver Nuggets

Raef LaFrentz

2004

2005

6

Toronto Raptors

Antawn Jamison

2000

2001

2

Golden State Warriors

Vince Carter

2007

1999

Chicago Bulls

Elton Brand

2005

2006

6

Vancouver Grizzlies

Steve Francis

2004

2005

5

Charlotte Hornets

Baron Davis

2000

2001

1

Los Angeles Clippers

Lamar Odom

2006

Toronto Raptors

Jonathan Bender

2000

2001

1

2000

New Jersey Nets

Kenyon Martin

2002

2003

2

Vancouver Grizzlies

Strmile Swift

2004

2005

4

Los Angeles Clippers

Darius Miles

2006

Chicago Bulls

Marcus Fizer

2005

2006

5

Orlando Magic

Mike Miller

2001

2002

1

2001

Washington Wizards

Kwame Brown

2005

2006

4

Los Angeles Clippers

Tyson Chandler

2006

Atlanta Hawks

Pau Gasol

2008

2009

7

Chicago Bulls

EddyCurry

2005

2006

4

Golden State Warriors

Jason Richardson

2007

2002

Houston Rockets

Yao Ming

2004

2005

2

Chicago Bulls

Jay Williams

2005

2006

3

Golden State Warriors

Mike Dunleavy, Jr.

2007

Memphis Grizzlies

Drew Gooden

2004

2005

2

Denver Nuggets

Nikoloz Tskitishvili

2004

2005

2

2003

Cleveland Cavaliers

Lebron James

2006

2007

3

Detroit Pistons

Darko Milicic

2004

2005

1

Denver Nuggets

Carmelo Anthony

2004

2005

1

Toronto Raptors

ChrisBosh

2007

2008

4

Miami Heat

Dwyane Wade

2004

2005

1

2004

Orlando Magic

Dwight Howard

2007

2008

3

Charlotte Bobcats

Emeka Okafor

2010

7

Chicago Bulls

Ben Gordon

2005

2006

1

Los Angeles Clippers

Shaun Livingston

2006

Washington Wizards

Devin Harris

2005

2006

1

2005

Milwaukee Bucks

Andrew Bogut

2006

5

Atlanta Hawks

Marvin Williams

2008

2009

3

UtahJazz

Deron Williams

2007

2008

2

New Orleans Hornets

Chris Paul

2008

2009

3

Charlotte Bobcats

Raymond Felton

2010

2006

Toronto Raptors

Andrea Bargnani

2007

2008

1

Chicago Bulls

LaMarcus Aldridge

2007

2009

2010

3

Charlotte Bobcats

Adam Morrison

2010

Portland TrailBlazers

Tyrus Thomas

2009

2010

3

Atlanta Hawks

Shelden Williams

2008

2009

2

2007

Portland TrailBlazers

GregOden

2009

2010

2

Seattle SuperSonics

Kevin Durant

2010

2011

3

Atlanta Hawks

AlHorford

2008

2009

1

Memphis Grizzlies

Mike Conley, Jr.

4

Boston Celtics

JeffGreen

2008

2009

1

2008

Chicago Bulls

Derrick Rose

2009

2010

1

Miami Heat

Michael Beasley

2009

2010

1

Minnesota Timberwolves

O. J.Mayo

3

Seattle SuperSonics

Russell Westbrook

2010

2011

2

Memphis Grizzlies

KevinLove

2009

Los Angeles Clippers

Blake Griffin

Memphis Grizzlies

Hasheem Thabeet

2011

Oklahoma City Thunder

James Harden

2010

2011

1

Sacramento Kings

Tyreke Evans

Minnesota Timberwolves

Ricky Rubio

2010

Washington Wizards

John Wall

Philadelphia 76ers

Evan Turner

2011

New Jersey Nets

Derrick Favors

Minnesota Timberwolves

Wesley Johnson

Sacramento Kings

DeMarcus Cousins

2011

Cleveland Cavaliers

Kyrie Irving

Minnesota Timberwolves

Derrick Williams

UtahJazz

Enes Kanter

Cleveland Cavaliers

Tristan Thompson

Toronto Raptors

Jonas Valanciunas

Here are the results of the data:

1-3 years 19

4-6 years 13

7-9 years 6

10+ years 3

Mean 4.6 years

Median 4 years

A couple things of note (please feel free to add to these below):

If one excludes the Clippers, Bullets/Wizards, and Warriors from the analysis, it becomes 50% 1-3 years, 34% 4-6 years, 16% 7-9 years. The mean would then become 3.7 years.

The results don’t include rebuilding efforts from 2009 to current.

What does this data say about the role of management and ownership?

How much of a role does luck play?

What about the opposing position, rebuilding through free agency and trades? Maybe the rebuttal could take a look at teams with 2 straight losing seasons that didn’t make it to the top 5 in the lottery and how they fared in the successive years after that stretch?

So what do you think fellow Brightsiders, is the Suns claim fact or fiction?

Comment 58 comments  |  8 recs  | 

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Comments

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I think markets might dictate things

For instance when was the last time la had to rebuild? Big men just magically fall into their laps every 7 or so years
Wilt
Kareem
Shaq
Pau
Bynum(overated but still)
Howard?
Of that list all except bynum were free agents
Conclusion? Make sure your team is in a big market with a nice guard and the rest will follow.
Especially a city like hollywood where asshole like d12 can market themselves because they think they can act.

"Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose"

by phxpurple on Feb 16, 2012 11:11 PM MST via Android app reply actions  

Nice post btw

Really puts things into perspective on just how bad the nba is. I wonder what the stats are for this for the NFL

"Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose"

by phxpurple on Feb 16, 2012 11:13 PM MST via Android app reply actions  

Going strictly by numbers, I call 8-10 years bull.

But when it comes to planning this sorta thing, I suppose it’s better to expect the worst possible outcome and try to dodge that.

This piece was very colorful. Literally. Therefore I rec’d.

Just because Steve Nash has that "dirty hipster" look doesn't mean he's in need of a shower. Steve Nash bathes in the tears of his victims on a nightly basis.

Mark of a Beast, baby. Mark of a Beast.

by NashMV3 on Feb 17, 2012 12:11 AM MST reply actions  

Great stuff, Jim

Rec’d.

Question though.. Why is Minnesota/OJ Mayo yellow for 4-6 years?

BAMF goes HAM.

by brian13 on Feb 17, 2012 12:40 AM MST reply actions  

You have a very discerning eye.

There are actually a few errors which I will correct and repost this afternoon. My failure to properly edit the draft history conspectus I compiled in my haste to publish the article has been revealed. Measure twice, cut once…

The Minnesota/OJ Mayo should be yellow and 5 years. They did poorly in the 2006-07 season and selected Mayo with the third pick in the draft. They didn’t make the playoffs in 2007-08, 2008-09, 2009-10, or 2010-11.

Other corrections:

1991 Sacramento should be orange and 8 years.
1993 Golden State should be 19 years (93-present)
1995 Clippers should be 17 years (95-present)
2005 Milwaukee Bucks should be orange and 7 years (2005-present)
2007 Memphis Grizzlies should have 2011 after it. Their “rebuild” will end at 4 years if they make the playoffs again this year.

These changes have very little impact on the overall picture, though. Maybe the mean goes up from 4.6 to 4.7. I will have the corrections posted this evening,

Thank you for paying close enough attention to discover the inconsistencies in the data.

It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.

by Jim Coughenour on Feb 17, 2012 11:41 AM MST up reply actions  

oh lord...why was I cursed to be a fan of the Warriors?!?
1993 Golden State should be 19 years (93-present)

nice post though, thanks very much for the insights

"I am very worried about the Warriors"
-brutusbrutus

by Duby Dub Dubs on Feb 22, 2012 2:18 PM MST up reply actions  

You also have to consider..

that not all of the teams that took that long BLEW it up. Some of them took 10 years to rebuild because they refused to blow it up and because they tried to stay competitive instead of putting a plan in place accumulate assets and then spend their money when the time was right.

Golden State looks like a prime example for this. They never really BLEW it up. They drafted

1994 #16
1995 #1 Joe Smith
1996 #11
1997 #8
1998 #5 Carter-Jamison swap
1999 #21
2000 traded away pick before the darft
2001 #5 JRich +# 14
2002 #3 Dunleavy
2003 #11
2004 #11
2005 #9
2006 #9
2007 #8
2008 #14
2009 #7
..

So since 1995 they never had a top 4 pick. And if you look at their draft record they might have very well been the worst drafting team in the entire league. Well surprise, if you suck at drafting you will be bad in the NBA.

The one time they had a top 5 pick in that stretch they managed to trade a franchise player in Vince Carter for a borderline allstar player in Jamison at #4.

by TruthTelling on Feb 17, 2012 1:18 AM MST reply actions  

There are considerations to examine on both sides.

Just because a team picked in the top 5 doesn’t necessarily mean they were that bad. Trades, injuries, etc. can skew the statistics.

The year a team drafted high makes an impact. The 2003 Lebron, Melo, Bosh, Wade class was a little better than 2000 Martin, Swift, Miles, Miller group.

What about the teams drafting? Is it possible that wasteland franchises like the Clippers, Warriors, and Wizards might have derailed the futures of one or more young players?

There are a myriad of different ways of compiling, organizing, and analyzing the data. My goal was simply to provide information to people to help them make informed decisions on where they stand on the subject. I hope the results of my research may provide clarity which can help confirm or debunk statements about rebuilding timelines.

It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.

by Jim Coughenour on Feb 17, 2012 11:59 AM MST up reply actions  

So since 1995 they never had a top 4 pick.
2002 #3 Dunleavy

BAMF goes HAM.

by brian13 on Feb 17, 2012 6:19 PM MST up reply actions   1 recs

Babby explains

Had a call with Lon Babby on this…the explanation he gave is that the Suns looked at teams that either traded or allowed their best player to leave via free agency and how long it took them to get back to a conference finals.

They identified 15 teams since 1994 that fall into that category with 5 returning with the conference finals with the average time being 10.4 years.

His point, which is totally fair, is that you can cut the data in a lot of different ways and come up with different results. He also stated (as have I many times) that there’s no guarantees in any way you go.

Twitter me at: @sethpo

by Seth Pollack on Feb 17, 2012 11:11 AM MST reply actions  

Wasn't that arguably Amare?

The Suns would then have 8 years left by their own metric.

It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.

by Jim Coughenour on Feb 17, 2012 11:44 AM MST up reply actions  

This is true.
His point, which is totally fair, is that you can cut the data in a lot of different ways and come up with different results.

For instance, one could say that a rebuild is only successful if it culminates in a championship by which logic the Suns have been stuck in rebuilding mode since 1968.

It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.

by Jim Coughenour on Feb 17, 2012 11:48 AM MST up reply actions  

Yep
For instance, one could say that a rebuild is only successful if it culminates in a championship by which logic the Suns have been stuck in rebuilding mode since 1968.

But it’s total bullcrap.

IMO, the purpose of rebuilding is to either become a championship contender or make money. Most franchises or owners at least want to be competitive enough to sell tickets and make money.

The 97-2001 Suns were in “making money” mode because they weren’t contenders, however they weren’t rebuilding or conbuilding either. They were a fairly good team that would entertain, sell tickets, but weren’t going to get any further than the semi’s.

The 01-04 Suns were in rebuild mode. Yes, I believe that Jason Kidd being traded for Marbury was a blow up move. Not re-signing Cliff Robinson and the Delk and Rogers trade for JJ helps support my case. I’m not sure if their intent was to rebuild around Marbury. I think they were just trying to get the best player possible in exchange for Kidd.

The 04-09 Suns were in contending mode. Although, I think when Sarver signed Nash he was just looking to get the team competitive again. I don’t think he intended to build a championship contender right away, but that’s how it turned out. Nobody thought Steve Nash would have such an impact.

09-present day. Suns have been and will be in conbuilding mode. They don’t want to rebuild and they don’t just want to make money either (thank goodness). They want to get this team contending again. Kerr was successful with this strategy in 09-10. He chose to re-sign Nash and Hill, draft Clark and developed Dragic and Lopez. We had a good mix of youth, prime and veterans on that team. They ended up a contender.

At the same time we also thought those younglings above would be our future PG and Center, lol. Last summer, Sarver thought he could repeat 05-06. He thought the team could re-main a contender if he replaced Amar’e with a bunch of role players. Now we’re a bad team that refuses to rebuild. Since summer of 2010, the conbuilding strategy stopped working. The new FO is failing to pull it off and yet they want to continue with it? I guess they can still redeem themselves.

Don't trade Dudley!

by Beavis 25 on Feb 17, 2012 2:14 PM MST up reply actions  

I think

They over valued JChill and Hedo. Hedo was just a terrible trade, but it did net Gortat.

I think with $30 mill in capspace, the Suns have a chance to redeem and, if they are lucky, get something. After all, Cleveland got Irving for capspace.

by MMotherwell on Feb 17, 2012 2:25 PM MST up reply actions  

Hedo was just a terrible trade, but it did net Gortat.

I disagree. I used to think it did to, but Alex or Ray (one of em) reminded me otherwise. The Magic wanted J-Rich, not Hedo. Hedo was the price they had to pay to take our #1 scorer for their at the time overpaid, backup center.

So the Hedo trade didn’t net us anything. We still could have swapped J-Rich for Gortat if we wanted to.

Yeah, they overrated both of those players a long with Warrick.

Don't trade Dudley!

by Beavis 25 on Feb 17, 2012 2:41 PM MST up reply actions  

I think the more important question is

How many teams “blew it up” and how long did they take to get back? Getting lucky in the draft isn’t blowing it up, and a lot of teams picking 6-8 sucked as well.

I can think of a few that traded stars for scrubs: Memphis (no), Minny (not yet), Seattle (yes) and New Orleans (too soon). For the other teams, knowing the average time between final four games would be useful as well.

by MMotherwell on Feb 17, 2012 2:23 PM MST reply actions  

To be sure probably no route is a sure bet, however

Once again I will point to the Clippers. Since 98 they have had 10 top ten draft picks. 6 of those were top 5. They have

made the playoffs 1 time in 06 where they lost to the Suns in the conference semi-finals. Drafting is not an absolute

sure fix, like some seem to think. Granted the Clips may have had a crappy FO, but there records don’t lie.

Handy men Earl. We are Handy, Men.----- Valentine McKee

by thedoovage on Feb 17, 2012 8:22 PM MST reply actions  

then

give us a sure fix.

Nobody is saying that drafting is a sure fix. It has the best odds of fixing it however, by far.

Free Agency is the worst route to go. You can go that route if you have drafted your young talent and just have to surround the pieces.

Free Agency has all the same risks as drafting but much more severe financial implications and free agency does not have the same upside as drafting. In the draft you can get franchise caliber players. In free agency that happens maybe once every 10 years per average that a franchise caliber player switches teams and in that case the Suns will have too strong competition.

by TruthTelling on Feb 18, 2012 9:53 AM MST up reply actions  

Prove it

I see all the confidence and none of the proof. Show me some proof that drafting is best.

and free agency does not have the same upside as drafting

The greatest player in the game was a free agent signing. Lebron James has more upside than any first pick in the draft in the last … pretty much ever. Maybe Akeem or Shaq had as much value, maybe not. And the drafting team lost Lebron, so that is a different risk.

And what about Detroit? They won a title with trades after the biggest draft bust, compared to the three picks after him, in NBA history. Thank you, Darko, for showing getting a top 2 pick can lead to a title even when the pick never plays.

I think it is fair to say there is as much risk and benefit in every strategy, unless you can show otherwise.

by MMotherwell on Feb 18, 2012 9:53 PM MST up reply actions  

lebron james the free agent

If you have a lousy team of overpaid free agents and no young talent you had better have a beach or a billion dollar entertainment industry to lure your franchise player free agent signee.

It’s a gamble with much higher financial stakes that can seriously hogtie your franchise because of the cap space required to play that game – if the guy even wants to sign with you.

by smeagolheart on Feb 22, 2012 1:13 PM MST up reply actions  

you are wrong

Lebron also was a draft pick at some point. The frequency of great draft picks is several times higher than the frequency of great players changing teams through free agency.

And free agency has more financial risks. You have to compete financially with other interested teams and overpay the player most times.

In the draft the player is restricted to the rookie cap and at the end of his deal he can just enter restricted free agency.

I doubt this is enough prove for you, since you showed in many discussions before that you are unable to process these arguments and just repeat the same thing over and over and over again.

by TruthTelling on Feb 19, 2012 4:30 PM MST reply actions  

I assume you are replying to me

EVERYONE is a draft pick. It’s a moot point and if your argument is that the draft helped Cleveland, which it did, you have to admit losing Lebron hurt it as well, and FA has massive value.

You simply haven’t proven anything. You’ve provided arguments that demonstrated the benefits of one strategy, drafting, but so what. Who is denying those benefits exist? Not me, net even close, but again, who cares? A list of benefits of one startegy dopesn’t prove your sweeping, absolute statement that “[drafting] has the best odds of fixing it however, by far.”

That is just not true, for a Brazilian reasons. Boston, Miami, Lakers, Memphis ,the number of teams that “fixed” their lot by NOT drafting is massive.

And what;‘s more, the “this” from the quote is the Sun’s current situation. We have many unique attributes and specific circumstances that affect our rebuilding effort that teams don’t, e.g. $34 million in cap space and likely a late lottery pick, no matter what we do from here on out.

Given we are picking probably 9 to 14, baring extreme luck, and that we have $34 mil in cap space, why wouldn’t we use our best assets?

Summing up, every advantage you have listed for drafting, all of which are undeniably true, are totally irrelevant to THIS Suns team. The financial risk, the ability to blackmail players, everything is irrelevant for this team picking 9-14 with $34 mil in cap sapce.

Quite simply put, our best strategy is unknown, absolutely and completely unknown, and to claim certainty in one strategy, in the face of so many possibilities, is to claim prescience you just do not, and can not, have.

by MMotherwell on Feb 21, 2012 3:12 PM MST up reply actions   1 recs

Brazillian reasons.

I like this.

Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!

Read my thoughts on Creighton University athletics at Creightonian.com

I also edit things at Ridiculous Upside. Check it out.

by Omaha Sun on Feb 21, 2012 3:14 PM MST up reply actions  

Me too.

Why did you cheat on your girl?
Brazilian reasons, bro.

Voted most likely to say "I told you so"

by jc79 on Feb 23, 2012 3:50 AM MST up reply actions   2 recs

bs

what bullshit man

That is just not true, for a Brazilian reasons. Boston, Miami, Lakers, Memphis ,the number of teams that "fixed" their lot by NOT drafting is massive.

How have these teams not fixed their sisues by drafting?

Boston drafted Rondo, Pierce and Perkins, they traded their draft picks for Ray Allen and KG.

The Lakers drafted Kobe and Bynum.

Memphis drafted Mayo, Conley, Gay and Gasol.

And now don’t come with that nonsense that they were not really drafted by those simply because the pick was traded on draft night or before the player ever played in the NBA for another team.

EVERYONE is a draft pick. It’s a moot point and if your argument is that the draft helped Cleveland, which it did, you have to admit losing Lebron hurt it as well, and FA has massive value.

LMAO

Lebron leaving Cleveland did not hurt them nearly as much as what he gave to that franchise for almost a decade.

EVERYONE is a draft pick.

Ooooh you are finally getting somewhere. Besides the fact that there are undrafted free agents.

Drafting is the much better way because drafting does not have the same financial risks, the player has a longer career ahead, the player can still be developed to your teams needs and the player has little leverage to leave the team in the first 7 to 8 years.
And even when it does not work out you can still move a young player with potential way more easily than an overpaid FA.

Free Agents almost always get overpaid because there is COMPETITION between teams to sign players.

You are just ranting and ranting but maybe you try an actual factual argument instead of just blabbering and reapting yourself over and over again how everything is luck.

by TruthTelling on Feb 23, 2012 2:56 PM MST up reply actions  

Damn

"Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose"

by phxpurple on Feb 23, 2012 4:33 PM MST via Android app up reply actions  

EVERYONE is a draft pick. … Ooooh you are finally getting somewhere. Besides the fact that there are undrafted free agents.

Lets change the question: where are there currently more NBA caliber players – in College or the NBA? NBA – fullstop, no question.

Where are there more superstars? Given a player will play of 8-10 years in the NBA, even if players stayed all 4 years in the NCAA, there will always be more superstars in the NBA than anywhere else.

So FA has a chance, and lets be clear, at least as good a chance as anything else because, if we are all honest, everything has a 90% chance of failure – because in the last ten years, 6 out of 32 teams have one a championship, and teams like Sacramento in the Webber era, and us int eh Amar’e/Nash/Marion era got a tad unlucky, so even good teams fail

I’m not sure what you do for a living, or even what you hope to do, but most of the money in the world comes from solving problems and being creative. I solve problems, and if someone working for me said there was only one solution, refused to look at other options, refused to assess the unique characteristics of a situation and offered a no imagination, “this is the only way” solution, I’d fire them on the spot.

There are 5 mechanisms for picking up players in the NBA, and anyone who ignores 4 of them (really three but the fourth is still possible, even this season) doesn’t understand the NBA.

by MMotherwell on Feb 23, 2012 11:34 PM MST up reply actions  

more bs
Lets change the question: where are there currently more NBA caliber players – in College or the NBA? NBA – fullstop, no question.

How can you even think of disputing the fact that the frequency of great players being available and joining a team is higher in the draft than FA.

Almost all players were draftpicks but very few of them actually change teams while they are relevant.

It is great that in the NBA they are more NBA caliber players than in college. Too bad that only a small portion is available and an even smaller portion is available for a fair price.

by TruthTelling on Feb 24, 2012 1:37 AM MST up reply actions  

Sigh

I think we need to agree to disagree. I think there are many ways and many goals. You don’t. Game over.

by MMotherwell on Feb 24, 2012 6:53 PM MST up reply actions  

you can blabla

all you want but free agency clearly is not an “on par” solution with drafting but you fail to acknowledge all arguments and just repeat yourself all over again.

the most logical solution to rebuild is to keep the cap space you have available and use the draft to put a young cheap core in place and once you have that you use your capspace to fill out the roster to compete.

Any other way around makes absolutely zero sense. Great players are not available in free agency and the ones that are don’t make a difference but will only keep you from getting a good draft position making it even harder to rebuild your team while at the same time they occupy the salary cap, turn into bad contracts more often than not that will cost you assets simply to get rid off and take away flexibility to sign someone to complete the roster as you need once you get lucky.

by TruthTelling on Feb 24, 2012 1:41 AM MST up reply actions  

There are multifarious strategies to build a winner.

I’m a pretty firm believer in needing a top 5 player to win a championship. Not a top 5 pick, necessarily, but a top 5 player. There are different ways of getting a top 5 player, but the draft is the most proven method.

As far as top 5 picks go, even the Pistons, with their lack of a true basketball virtuoso, still had a top 5 pick on the roster (Billups) when they won a championship, so it seems to be a somewhat indispensible ingredient. It would be interesting to see if there was ever a championship team who didn’t have a top 5 pick playing a major role. I can’t think of one.

In terms of getting these top tier players, though, trades and free agency don’t seem to be impossible alternatives. Players such as Shaq, Lebron, Nash, Paul, Gasol, Stoudemire, Anthony, Bosh, Garnett, Allen, and Johnson have all changed teams recently. Several of the moves have led to championships while others appear destined to culminate in that result. There is much more movement of star players in the current NBA landscape.

While a teams such as Phoenix isn’t in the most prestigious class as a desirable destination for these players, it isn’t a barren wasteland either. Even if Phoenix struggles to keep up with the Robinsons in free agency, there is still a possibility that a star player can be landed through a serendipitous trade, either directly or by way of moving up or into the lottery.

The Suns haven’t picked in the top 5 in the draft since they selected Armen Gilliam in 1987. While the Suns haven’t hoisted the O’Brien, they have had considerably more success than the vast majority of teams that have had one or multiple top 5 picks since then. Doesn’t that suggest that the Suns strategy for a quarter century has been to win the most games they can and take whatever opportunities they can to improve as they present themselves regardless of the route? Even with my myopic cupidity for a championship run, I can concede that the Suns have definitely been one of the more entertaining and successful franchises since the late 80’s.

If there was one surefire strategy that worked, everyone would be employing it. Then it still wouldn’t work, because the fact of the matter is that only one team can win each year. That means 29 other strategies failed. The Suns are in a malleable situation where they can access different resources, because although they don’t have the appeal to cause the gravitation of exceptional talent that the Lakers have, they also aren’t subjected to rebuilding through the draft like the Bobcats. They have options.

In my final analysis, it comes down to this. If you trust the team, then you trust whatever route they choose. If you don’t trust the team, then it doesn’t matter what route they choose.

It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.

by Jim Coughenour on Feb 24, 2012 10:17 AM MST up reply actions   2 recs

ok
Players such as Shaq, Lebron, Nash, Paul, Gasol, Stoudemire, Anthony, Bosh, Garnett, Allen, and Johnson have all changed teams recently.

Ok

Shaq – Yeah ok when he changed from Orlando to Lakers 15 years ago or so

Nash – was barely a borderline allstar caliber player when he was available and changed teams kind of lucky exception

Gasol – clearly not good enough to be the #1 player on a championship team

Stoudemire – same as Gasol , plus would have never switched teams if he wasn’t damaged goods

Anthony – again not good enough to be the #1 guy really

Ray Allen – good #3 guy, clearly not franchise changer or franchise player

Garnett was 31 when he switched teams and past his prime, it was still enough for the Celtics luckily with the other stars on the team.

Bosh – yeah clearly not good enough #1 player

Johnson – again clearly not #1 more like #3 and one of the worst contracts in the NBA. When he changed teams he was merely a good young player.

Now how many of those left in free agency? Not Anthony, Not Garnett, Not Allen, Not Gasol..

Except for Gasol all of those players cost top picks or other valueable assets that a team somehow has to acquire first of all, likely through the draft.

In the last 25 years in the NBA there are probably 2 instances of true franchise players changing teams through free agency in their primes. Lebron and Shaq.

by TruthTelling on Feb 24, 2012 10:43 AM MST up reply actions  

Can I get you to agree that Deron Williams and Dwight Howard are #1 guys now?

So that if they change teams in free agency, they don’t automatically become damaged goods or not good enough?

BAMF goes HAM.

by brian13 on Feb 24, 2012 12:44 PM MST up reply actions  

Williams already changed teams.

I added him in my list below.

It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.

by Jim Coughenour on Feb 24, 2012 12:47 PM MST up reply actions  

u can

when they actually leave in free agency but it is unlikely.

It is more likely Deron Williams stays and Dwight Howard will be traded before.

by TruthTelling on Feb 24, 2012 12:58 PM MST up reply actions  

Maybe we quantify franchise player this way?

MJ, The Dream, Kobe, Shaq, Timmy, Billups, DWade, Pierce, and Dirk are really the only #1s since 91 then, right. These are the #1s from the teams that actually won championships.

One could even argue to eliminate Shaq from the list making Kobe the #1 for the Lakers championships and Wade the #1 for the Heat championship. I would say Shaq was the #1 for at least part of the Laker period.

MJ – #3
Olajuwon – #1
Bryant – #13
Shaq – #1 (free agency, trade)
Duncan – #1
Billups – #5 (free agency)
Wade – #5
Pierce – #10
Nowitzki – #9

Of those 9 players, 6 were top 5 picks. But only 4 of those top 5 picks won with the team that drafted them. 5 of the 9 #1s, the majority, were not drafted in the top 5 by the team they won titles with.

Of the last 13 NBA titles, 8 have been won by the group that wasn’t a top 5 one team player.

One can make an argument about early entry rules skewing the data, but another argument could be made that 8 of the top 15 players in the league (I’m basing it off of ESPN’s NBA rank) including 3 of the top 4 have changed teams through trades or free agency. This of course also assumes that Howard will leave the Magic. Either way it shows that player movement is the norm, not the exception.

Lebron
Howard
Paul
Williams
Gasol
Anthony
Stoudemire
Nash

I am sometimes amused by the “he could be the #1, #2, or #3 on a championship team” discussion. It is easier to identify based on actual occurences rather than hypotheticals. For example, we have no idea whether Amare could be the number 2 on a championship team because he hasn’t done it, but we know Pau Gasol can because he has.

If you want to be cynnical, only 2 #1 overall picks have even won a championship since 1991. 21 years, 2 #1s. One of those (Shaq) didn’t win a championship for that team. So picking first overall gives you less than a 5% chance of winning a championship. Yeah!

Looks like a team is pretty much screwed no matter what approach they take.

It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.

by Jim Coughenour on Feb 24, 2012 12:46 PM MST up reply actions   1 recs

Amare

top 15 player is an absolute joke and I say that as a big Amare fan.

Lebron and Nash are the only players on that list that changed teams through free agency.

by TruthTelling on Feb 24, 2012 1:00 PM MST up reply actions  

I used ESPN's list.
top 15 player is an absolute joke and I say that as a big Amare fan.

4 time all-NBA second team including 2010 and 2011 and 1 time all-NBA first team. 5 selections in 7 years and the two times he didn’t make it were years he missed substantial time due to injury. Obviously he isn’t playing like a top 15 player this year, but how can you claim to be a fan of someone and make contrary statements like this? I think you and I have a difference of opinion in terms of classifying what constitutes an absolute joke.

Others used impending free agency to force their way out. Paul, Anthony, and Williams were all moved based on their looming free agency…

But I wasn’t differentiating between trades and free agency, I was lumping them together for the sake of my argument. It was more of a free agency AND trades vs. draft scenario.

It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.

by Jim Coughenour on Feb 24, 2012 2:13 PM MST up reply actions  

btw

the only reason Kobe and Dirk were not #1 picks is because at the time drafting highschoolers or europeans was not on vogue.

by TruthTelling on Feb 24, 2012 1:01 PM MST up reply actions  

Seems like specious logic.

Kobe went #13 the year after Garnett went #5 right out of high school and was named second team all rookie. It wasn’t uncharted waters.

If your argument is that teams are now incapable of making mistakes through the draft and letting players slip, then it is based on an unprovable concept. We would have to go forward in time 10 years to see if you are correct. I am basing my observations off of what actually happened and observation of the trends. You are making excuses to try to explain away the half of the data that doesn’t coincide with your philosophy.

You can list all the excuses you want, I will list the facts.

I’ll pound the facts while you pound the table.

It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.

by Jim Coughenour on Feb 24, 2012 2:37 PM MST up reply actions   2 recs

And I'll stand back and watch

Ok Ok, maybe applaud a little as well :)

by MMotherwell on Feb 24, 2012 6:54 PM MST up reply actions  

What if you just want to be very good?

So few teams win a title, so very, very few, the question is would you rather be Sacramento, trying desperately to get lucky and draft a star, or Portland or Houston or Denver? I’d love to have Denver’s team of no-stars.

Besides which, we don’t need a superstar, we have one and his name is Steve Nash. If you surround him with quality pieces you can build a team that might not be favourite to win a title, but will win 55+ games.

If you want to win a championship, good luck, because you’ll need plenty of it. Cleveland had the NBAs best player and didn’t get one, and Minnesota had the best player and rarely made the playoffs.

If, however, you want to be very, very good, there is plenty you can do. For $35 million in FAs we could keep the good players we have (Nash, Hill, Frye, Gortat, Morris and Dudley) and add George Hill, Batum and Gerald Wallace. That’s a lineup I’d love to watch,. and one that could win 50-60 games. if you can keep the years to two or three, that is even a lineup that preserves flexibility.

YMMV, but if the goal is to win a title, 25 out or 30 teams failed in the noughties, and 4 teams succeeded in the 90s, and for virtually that entire time, I got to watch a the Suns be competitive. I’ll take that any day over teh misery of tanking and hoping against hope that the magioc of the draft turns me into OKC, and not into Sacramento or, even worse, the Clippers and their 30 years of ineptitude.

by MMotherwell on Feb 24, 2012 6:52 PM MST up reply actions  

Very nice work. Now to nitpick. =-)

A lot of these teams didn’t rebuild through the draft. They made a big trade. For instance, the Nets in 2000 picked Kenyon Martin, but that certainly wasn’t what made their rebuild a success. It was a trade for Jason Kidd. As far as the data goes, this “rebuild” is irrelevant because it wasn’t done through the draft.

And, there are some here that have the opposite effect. They drafted a stud, and then traded him away, failing to recognize the ability, and so languished in rebuild mode for extra years.

The sword cuts both ways.

Voted most likely to say "I told you so"

by jc79 on Feb 20, 2012 5:39 PM MST reply actions  

I wasn't trying to wield the sword.
This is an arbitrary set of parameters selected to promote a guideline. As is true with most analysis tools, it is not infallible.

I was just listing data of teams with top 5 picks and how long it took them to get to consecutive playoff appearances. I wanted you to draw your own conclusions.

The Suns offered their perspective, and I thought this might help people decide whether they choose to accept the Suns evalutation.

Do you?

It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.

by Jim Coughenour on Feb 21, 2012 10:49 AM MST up reply actions  

Not really

It seems to be more a matter of management and location.

The AVERAGE might be what they say it is, but that doesn’t make it likely. Most of these rebuliding teams that took so long are there because they had skinflint owners (Clippers, Warriors), or were managed into the ground by a bad GM (TWolves, Bullets).

Voted most likely to say "I told you so"

by jc79 on Feb 23, 2012 3:53 AM MST up reply actions  

I find it somewhat interesting

that the Suns tried to put a number on something that is apparently predicated on the individual factors relevant to each situation, and therefore very difficult to assign a number with any degree of accuracy.

The rebuilding processes of most of the teams were disparate from each other, so the basis for comparison is flawed.

8-10 years seems like a reasonable timeframe for a team that plans on not giving a rat’s ass about winning rebuilding like the Clippers, but the list I compiled seems to suggest that is more of a worst case scenario than an expected outcome.

I feel they were being more than a little disingenuous, and I’m actually insulted that they think their fans are stupid enough to accept a statement like that at face value. That’s just me though.

It seems to me it would show more tact to simply say that each rebuilding strategy has it’s own inherent pitfalls, but that the team has already chosen its direction and is steadfast in its resolve. It just felt a little too much like political gamesmanship to me.

After all this talk about staying competitive and not tanking, the Suns better not end up in the top 5 in the lottery in the next couple years… Wouldn’t that be a hilariously embarrassing twist of fate?

It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.

by Jim Coughenour on Feb 23, 2012 1:25 PM MST up reply actions  

You haven't seen hilarity

til you’ve seen fate playing twister. This one time at the babysitter’s house – it was me, Amber, fate, and Gary Coleman, and fate kept getting right hand red, like every turn… but I digress.

I wouldn’t mind a top 5 pick. I might be annoyed with 2 seasons of sucking that badly though.

Voted most likely to say "I told you so"

by jc79 on Feb 23, 2012 2:24 PM MST up reply actions  

Wasn't the exact comment

8-10 years between return visits to the conference finals? I can;t remember and my Internet here is rubbish, so happy to be corrected!

by MMotherwell on Feb 24, 2012 6:56 PM MST up reply actions  

from a team

that made the finals in over 40 years twice.. 1976 and 1993

by TruthTelling on Feb 25, 2012 1:37 PM MST up reply actions  

And missed the playoffs how many times?

did you ever watch the Barkley/Tom Chambers and KJ Suns? They were awesome – on a par with the Marion, Nash, Amar’e Suns to watch.

I’m left wondering, maybe you don’t like basketball, and you live merely for a title. I don’t. I LOVE to watch the Suns play and play well. I want them to have a chance to win every game. A title would be nice, but as long as they play the traditional Suns running and gunning, PG lead style, from KJ to Kidd to Marbury to Nash, I’ll be happy, because this team has almost always been fun to watch.

As one grows older, and you inevitably don’t become the richest man alive, the best looking and a million other things you fail to be the best at, rather than only appreciating the best life has to offer, you learn to take pleasure in everything, and a 55 win team is one I’d love to watch.

by MMotherwell on Feb 25, 2012 1:54 PM MST up reply actions  

There you go.

Proof we don’t need to tank. We’re getting Davis anyway.

Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!

Read my thoughts on Creighton University athletics at Creightonian.com

I also edit things at Ridiculous Upside. Check it out.

by Omaha Sun on Feb 25, 2012 11:50 PM MST up reply actions   2 recs

boom!

I don't know what to put in my sig.

by shawndy on Feb 26, 2012 6:19 AM MST up reply actions  

It took me like 10 minutes

but hey, it was a slow day at work.

Voted most likely to say "I told you so"

by jc79 on Feb 26, 2012 9:51 PM MST up reply actions  

I never got the #1

just PHX at #2

how pathetic are we, clicking away at the lotto machine?

I wish we could earn more % points for the SUNS by doing it…

by SteveNash, QuantumPhysicist on Feb 27, 2012 9:09 PM MST up reply actions  

As a MN fan

I gotta warn you the lottery machine is not a healthy addiction =)

just clicking over this way to see what the latest rumors on moving Nash are… Good luck getting good pieces if you move.

by zebano on Feb 28, 2012 8:12 AM MST up reply actions  

Which is why he's not going anywhere despite what any people here may want.

Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!

Read my thoughts on Creighton University athletics at Creightonian.com

I also edit things at Ridiculous Upside. Check it out.

by Omaha Sun on Feb 28, 2012 10:32 AM MST up reply actions  

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