How long has it historically taken to rebuild through the draft? The Suns recently intimated that the process can take between 8-10 years….
I have conducted my own research which I will share with you in an exercise that may support or refute the Suns position, or may just obfuscate the situation even more.
For the purpose of this analysis, the rebuilding period is defined as including the season prior to when the team first drafted in the top 5 and extending to the year before the team made the playoffs in consecutive years. This is an arbitrary set of parameters selected to promote a guideline. As is true with most analysis tools, it is not infallible.
The function of this research is not to be partisan or tendentious, but merely to show how the results unfold under the selected parameters. Please feel free to analyze the data and draw your own conclusions to share in the comments below.
Teams that made it back to the playoffs in consecutive seasons in 1-3 years (including the year they drafted in the top 5) are in green. 4-6 years is yellow. 7-9 years is orange. 10+ years is red. Gray highlights are used to indicate teams which have already been counted (they are not counted multiple times). The rebuilding timeframe is measured from their first top 5 selection.
Trudge on to view a ponderous set of data…
1990 |
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Derrick Coleman |
1992 |
1993 |
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2 |
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Seattle SuperSonics |
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Gary Payton |
1991 |
1992 |
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1 |
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Chris Jackson |
1994 |
1995 |
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4 |
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Dennis Scott |
1994 |
1995 |
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4 |
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Charlotte Hornets |
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Kendall Gill |
1993 |
1995 |
1997 |
1998 |
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7 |
||
1991 |
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Charlotte Hornets |
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Larry Johnson |
1993 |
1995 |
1997 |
1998 |
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6 |
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New Jersey Nets |
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Kenny Anderson |
1992 |
1993 |
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1 |
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Billy Owens |
1996 |
1999 |
2000 |
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5 |
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Denver Nuggets |
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Dikembe Mutombo |
1994 |
1995 |
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3 |
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Steve Smith |
1992 |
1994 |
1996 |
1997 |
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5 |
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1992 |
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Orlando Magic |
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Shaquille O'Neal |
1994 |
1995 |
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2 |
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Charlotte Hornets |
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Alonzo Mourning |
1993 |
1995 |
1997 |
1998 |
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5 |
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Christian Laettner |
1997 |
1998 |
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5 |
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Jimmy Jackson |
2001 |
2002 |
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9 |
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Denver Nuggets |
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LaPhonso Ellis |
1994 |
1995 |
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2 |
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1993 |
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Orlando Magic |
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Chris Webber |
1994 |
1995 |
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1 |
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Shawn Bradley |
1999 |
2000 |
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6 |
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Anfernee Hardaway |
1994 |
2007 |
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18 |
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Dallas Mavericks |
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Jamal Mashburn |
2001 |
2002 |
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8 |
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Minnesota Timberwolves |
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Isaiah Rider |
1997 |
1998 |
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4 |
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1994 |
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Glenn Robinson |
1999 |
2000 |
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5 |
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Dallas Mavericks |
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JasonKidd |
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2001 |
2002 |
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7 |
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Grant Hill |
|
1996 |
1997 |
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2 |
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Minnesota Timberwolves |
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Donyell Marshall |
1997 |
1998 |
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3 |
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Washington Bullets |
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Juwan Howard |
1997 |
2005 |
2006 |
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11 |
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1995 |
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Golden State Warriors |
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Joe Smith |
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2007 |
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Antonio McDyess |
1997 |
2006 |
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16 |
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Philadelphia 76ers |
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Jerry Stackhouse |
1999 |
2000 |
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4 |
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Washington Bullets |
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Rasheed Wallace |
1997 |
2005 |
2006 |
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10 |
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Minnesota Timberwolves |
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Kevin Garnett |
1997 |
1998 |
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2 |
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1996 |
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Philadelphia 76ers |
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Allen Iverson |
1999 |
2000 |
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3 |
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Marcus Camby |
2000 |
2001 |
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4 |
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Vancouver Grizzlies |
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Shareef Abdur-Rahim |
2004 |
2005 |
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8 |
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Milwaukee Bucks |
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Stephon Marbury |
1999 |
2000 |
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3 |
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Minnesota Timberwolves |
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Ray Allen |
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1997 |
1998 |
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1 |
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1997 |
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Tim Duncan |
1998 |
1999 |
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1 |
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Philadelphia 76ers |
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Keith Van Horn |
1999 |
2000 |
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2 |
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Chauncey Billups |
2002 |
2003 |
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5 |
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Vancouver Grizzlies |
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Antonio Daniels |
2004 |
2005 |
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7 |
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Denver Nuggets |
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Tony Battie |
2004 |
2005 |
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7 |
||
1998 |
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Los Angeles Clippers |
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Michael Olowokandi |
2006 |
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Vancouver Grizzlies |
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Mike Bibby |
2004 |
2005 |
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6 |
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Denver Nuggets |
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Raef LaFrentz |
2004 |
2005 |
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6 |
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Toronto Raptors |
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Antawn Jamison |
2000 |
2001 |
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2 |
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Golden State Warriors |
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Vince Carter |
2007 |
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1999 |
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Elton Brand |
2005 |
2006 |
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6 |
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Vancouver Grizzlies |
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Steve Francis |
2004 |
2005 |
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5 |
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Charlotte Hornets |
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Baron Davis |
2000 |
2001 |
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1 |
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Los Angeles Clippers |
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Lamar Odom |
2006 |
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Toronto Raptors |
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Jonathan Bender |
2000 |
2001 |
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1 |
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2000 |
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New Jersey Nets |
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Kenyon Martin |
2002 |
2003 |
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2 |
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Vancouver Grizzlies |
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Strmile Swift |
2004 |
2005 |
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4 |
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Los Angeles Clippers |
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Darius Miles |
2006 |
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Chicago Bulls |
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Marcus Fizer |
2005 |
2006 |
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5 |
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Orlando Magic |
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Mike Miller |
2001 |
2002 |
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1 |
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2001 |
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Kwame Brown |
2005 |
2006 |
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4 |
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Los Angeles Clippers |
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Tyson Chandler |
2006 |
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Pau Gasol |
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2008 |
2009 |
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7 |
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Chicago Bulls |
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EddyCurry |
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2005 |
2006 |
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4 |
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Golden State Warriors |
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Jason Richardson |
2007 |
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2002 |
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2004 |
2005 |
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2 |
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Chicago Bulls |
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Jay Williams |
2005 |
2006 |
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3 |
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Golden State Warriors |
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Mike Dunleavy, Jr. |
2007 |
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Drew Gooden |
2004 |
2005 |
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2 |
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Denver Nuggets |
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Nikoloz Tskitishvili |
2004 |
2005 |
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2 |
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2003 |
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Lebron James |
2006 |
2007 |
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3 |
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Detroit Pistons |
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Darko Milicic |
2004 |
2005 |
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1 |
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Denver Nuggets |
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Carmelo Anthony |
2004 |
2005 |
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1 |
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Toronto Raptors |
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ChrisBosh |
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2007 |
2008 |
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4 |
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Miami Heat |
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Dwyane Wade |
2004 |
2005 |
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1 |
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2004 |
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Orlando Magic |
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Dwight Howard |
2007 |
2008 |
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3 |
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Emeka Okafor |
2010 |
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7 |
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Chicago Bulls |
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Ben Gordon |
2005 |
2006 |
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1 |
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Los Angeles Clippers |
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Shaun Livingston |
2006 |
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Washington Wizards |
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Devin Harris |
2005 |
2006 |
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1 |
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2005 |
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Milwaukee Bucks |
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Andrew Bogut |
2006 |
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5 |
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Atlanta Hawks |
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Marvin Williams |
2008 |
2009 |
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3 |
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UtahJazz |
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Deron Williams |
2007 |
2008 |
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2 |
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Chris Paul |
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2008 |
2009 |
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3 |
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Charlotte Bobcats |
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Raymond Felton |
2010 |
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2006 |
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Toronto Raptors |
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Andrea Bargnani |
2007 |
2008 |
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1 |
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Chicago Bulls |
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LaMarcus Aldridge |
2007 |
2009 |
2010 |
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3 |
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Charlotte Bobcats |
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Adam Morrison |
2010 |
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Portland TrailBlazers |
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Tyrus Thomas |
2009 |
2010 |
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3 |
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Atlanta Hawks |
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Shelden Williams |
2008 |
2009 |
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2 |
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2007 |
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Portland TrailBlazers |
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GregOden |
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2009 |
2010 |
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2 |
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Seattle SuperSonics |
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Kevin Durant |
2010 |
2011 |
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3 |
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Atlanta Hawks |
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AlHorford |
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2008 |
2009 |
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1 |
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Memphis Grizzlies |
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Mike Conley, Jr. |
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4 |
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Boston Celtics |
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JeffGreen |
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2008 |
2009 |
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1 |
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2008 |
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Chicago Bulls |
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Derrick Rose |
2009 |
2010 |
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1 |
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Miami Heat |
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Michael Beasley |
2009 |
2010 |
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1 |
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Minnesota Timberwolves |
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O. J.Mayo |
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3 |
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Seattle SuperSonics |
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Russell Westbrook |
2010 |
2011 |
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2 |
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Memphis Grizzlies |
|
KevinLove |
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2009 |
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Los Angeles Clippers |
Blake Griffin |
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Memphis Grizzlies |
Hasheem Thabeet |
2011 |
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James Harden |
2010 |
2011 |
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1 |
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Sacramento Kings |
Tyreke Evans |
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Minnesota Timberwolves |
Ricky Rubio |
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2010 |
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Washington Wizards |
John Wall |
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Philadelphia 76ers |
Evan Turner |
2011 |
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New Jersey Nets |
Derrick Favors |
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Minnesota Timberwolves |
Wesley Johnson |
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Sacramento Kings |
DeMarcus Cousins |
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2011 |
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Cleveland Cavaliers |
Kyrie Irving |
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Minnesota Timberwolves |
Derrick Williams |
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UtahJazz |
Enes Kanter |
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Cleveland Cavaliers |
Tristan Thompson |
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Toronto Raptors |
Jonas Valanciunas |
Here are the results of the data:
1-3 years 19
4-6 years 13
7-9 years 6
10+ years 3
Mean 4.6 years
Median 4 years
A couple things of note (please feel free to add to these below):
If one excludes the Clippers, Bullets/Wizards, and Warriors from the analysis, it becomes 50% 1-3 years, 34% 4-6 years, 16% 7-9 years. The mean would then become 3.7 years.
The results don’t include rebuilding efforts from 2009 to current.
What does this data say about the role of management and ownership?
How much of a role does luck play?
What about the opposing position, rebuilding through free agency and trades? Maybe the rebuttal could take a look at teams with 2 straight losing seasons that didn’t make it to the top 5 in the lottery and how they fared in the successive years after that stretch?
So what do you think fellow Brightsiders, is the Suns claim fact or fiction?